’

Daily Commodity Market Update as on Friday, April 08, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
GOLD 21141 21262 21126 21177 0.05 Bullion rose on inflation worries and expectations that the
SILVER 57699 58083 57568 57934 0.39 European Central Bank's first rate hike since 2008 would
SPOT $ weaken the dollar but a strong earthquake that shook
GOLD 1458.7 1466.05 1455.75 1465.05 0.44 Japan pressured prices.
SILVER 39.58 39.98 39.51 39.89 0.73
PLATINUM 1780 1786.74 1771 1785.5 0.32

ENERGY COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
CRUDE 4801 4890 4798 4880 1.76 Crude oil prices jumped amid uncertainties about supply
in Libya, the Middle East and Nigeria. Natural gas ended
N.GAS 184.4 185.1 179.3 180.5 -2.11
down dropping to the lowest level in three-weeks after
the U.S. Energy Information Administration said natural
SPOT $ gas iinventories
t i ffell
ll lless-than-expected
th t d llastt week.
k
CRUDE 108.67 110.44 108.23 110.3 1.499954

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX Base metal ended up as investors once again ignored an
COPPER 427 15
427.15 434 2
434.2 426 15
426.15 432 1 03
1.03 in-line interest rate hike and continued to bet on the
ZINC 107.5 109.55 107.3 108.6 0.87 global economic recovery. Markets barely flinched after
NICKEL 1176.9 1214 1174.5 1198.6 2.01 the European Central Bank raised rates for the first time
125.65 126.65 124.55 125.65 -0.04 since July 2008 by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent.
LEAD
ALUMINIUM 117.6 118.7 117.3 117.95 0.04

LME LME STOCK

COPPER 9706.5 9795 9670.25 9794 0.97 COPPER 1500 442375
ZINC 2455 2470 2443 2467.5 0.12 ZINC -150 734825
NICKEL 27000 2685 26998 27279 1.03 NICKEL -1164 121752
LEAD 2793 2830 2790 2830 0.57 LEAD -275 278125
ALUMINIUM 2673 2830 2673 2684 0.15 ALUMINIUM -4525 4584475

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
19693.4 5913.1 2332.88 1333.44 8489.33 12409.49 9704.62 3017.29 2132.68 24420.99 75.24
0.52 0.47 0.02 -0.16 -0.22 -0.14 1.13 0.31 0.5 0.57 -0.46

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 OPEN
21141
HIGH
21262
FUTURE

LOW
21126
CLOSE
21177
% CNG
0.05
VOLUME
X GOLD F

27510
OI
10886
RE CNG
11

INTRADAY LEVELS
Gold hardly moved yesterday traded in the range and closed at 21177 that is up by +0.05% after
MCX

striking another record in the previous session, inched up amid concerns over European debt PP
P.P. 21188
problem and global inflation. However, an interest-rate hike in euro zone and a higher dollar curbed
rise. Market expected gold market got support from deepened concerns over debt problem in
SUP 1 RES 1
Europe, as Portugal is set to seek a bailout from EU after the nation's political crisis pushed 21115 21251
borrowing costs to record levels and forced it to become third country in the euro region in need of SUP 2 RES 2
rescue. The precious market was also propped up by news that an earthquake hit Japan's 21052 21324
devastated northeast coast on Thursday. Now gold is getting support at 21115 and below could see
SUP 3 RES 3
a test of 21052 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 21251, a move above could see
prices testing 21324. 20979 21387

OPEN
57699
TURE

HIGH
58083
LOW
57568
LVER FUT

CLOSE
57934
% CNG
0.39
VOLUME
71700
OI
17241
MCX SIL

RE CNG
226

INTRADAY LEVELS
Silver spot at $39.80, 20 off from $40. At 31 year high; highest level since when the Hunt Brothers
tried to corner the market in 1980, bullion got support from deepened concerns over debt problem P.P. 57862
in the Europe, as Portugal is set to seek a bailout from the European Union after the nation's political SUP 1 RES 1
crisis pushed borrowing costs to record levels and forced it to become the third country in the euro
57640 58155
region in need of a rescue. The strength in dollar also weighed on the market. Silver could rise to a
lingered IShares Silver Trust
new high after ETF holdings rose to an all-time high as inflation worries lingered. SUP 2 RES 2
said its holdings hit another record at 11,192.80 tonnes by April 7 from 11,162.45 tonnes on April 4. 57347 58377
Now silver is getting support at 57640 and below could see a test of 57347 level, and resistance is SUP 3 RES 3
now likely to be seen at 58155, a move above could see prices testing 58377.
57125 58670

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 OPEN
4801
HIGH
X CRUDE FUTURE
E

4890
LOW
4798
CLOSE
4880
% CNG
1.76
VOLUME
142960
OI
18291
RE CNG
86

INTRADAY LEVELS
Crude oil yesterday broken the tight range and shoot up by 1.76% and finally settled at 4880 and
MCX

internationally steady above 110$ that is 2-1/2-year highs on continued supply worries stemming PP
P.P. 4856
from tensions in Libya and the Middle East. Oil prices were also supported by OPEC member
Nigeria's decision to postpone parliamentary polls in some areas. Rebels fighting to overthrow
SUP 1 RES 1
Muammar Gaddafi said five of their fighters were killed when NATO planes mistakenly bombed a 4822 4914
rebel tank column near the contested port of Brega in eastern Libya. Libya accused Britain of SUP 2 RES 2
damaging an oil pipeline in an air strike, hours after rebels said government attacks had halted 4764 4948
production of oil they hope to sell to finance their uprising. Now crude is getting support at 4822 and
SUP 3 RES 3
below could see a test of 4764 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4914, a move above
could see prices testing 4948. 4730 5006

OPEN
427.15
TURE

HIGH
434.2
LOW
426.15
PPER FUT

CLOSE
432
% CNG
1.03
VOLUME
117292
OI
20451
MCX COP

RE CNG
4.45

INTRADAY LEVELS
Copper yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 1.03% up at 432 hitting its priciest level
in about two weeks, as investors once again ignored an in-line interest rate hike and continued to P.P. 430.8
bet on the global economic recovery. Markets barely flinched after the European Central Bank raised SUP 1 RES 1
rates for the first time since July 2008 by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent. Slight pressure had been
427.4 435.4
witnessed in their session highs after an earthquake of magnitude 7.4 shook the northeast of Japan
coast already devastated by last month's quake and
and a tsunami warning was issued for the coast, SUP 2 RES 2
tsunami. For today's session market is looking to take support at 427.4, a break below could see a 422.7 438.8
test of 422.7 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 435.4, a move above could see SUP 3 RES 3
prices testing 438.8.
419.3 443.5

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 OPEN
107.5
HIGH
109.55
FUTURE

LOW
107.3
CLOSE
108.6
% CNG
0.87
VOLUME
CX ZINC F

24691
OI
7816
RE CNG
0.95

INTRADAY LEVELS
Zinc yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.87% up at 108.6 tracking LME zinc
prices which moved between USD 2,420-2,440/mt
2 420 2 440/mt during the Asian trading hours.
hours In the PP
P.P. 108
108.5
5
MC

evening, European central bank announced to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to SUP 1 RES 1
1.25%, the first interest rate hike since July 2008. But LME zinc prices rose to USD 2,470-
107.4 109.7
2,480/mt, with prices once touching USD 2,486/mt. Since a 7.4 magnitude earthquake
occurred in east Japan, LME zinc prices lost some gains, with prices finally closing at USD SUP 2 RES 2
2,465/mt, up USD 24/mt, above the 5-day moving average. For today's session market is 106.2 110.7
looking to take support at 107.4, a break below could see a test of 106.2 and where as SUP 3 RES 3
resistance is now likely to be seen at 109.7, a move above could see prices testing 110.7. 105.2 111.9

OPEN
1176.9
TURE

HIGH
1214
LOW
1174.5
CKEL FUT

CLOSE
1198.6
% CNG
2.01
VOLUME
64275
OI
7920
MCX NIC

RE CNG
24.1

INTRADAY LEVELS
Nickel yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 2.01% up at 1198.6 tracking LME nickel
for delivery in three months opened at USD 26,500/mt and closed at USD 27,000/mt, up by USD P.P. 1196
455/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 27,400/mt and the lowest price at USD
26,351/mt. LME base metals largely ended with gains on Thursday due to strong demand signals,
SUP 1 RES 1
but a new earthquake in Japan pared certain gains. LME nickel prices extended Wednesday's strong 1177 1217
upward momentum overnight. LME nickel prices largely fluctuated stably during the Asian trading SUP 2 RES 2
hours, but surged to the highest of USD 27,400/mt during the Asian trading hours, with prices 1156 1235
closing above all day moving averages. For today's session market is looking to take support at
SUP 3 RES 3
1177.4, a break below could see a test of 1156.2 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at
1216.9, a move above could see prices testing 1235.2. 1138 1256

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 URE
OPEN
117.6
HIGH
ALUMINIUM FUTU

118.7
LOW
117.3
CLOSE
117.95
% CNG
0.04
VOLUME
4533
OI
1906
RE CNG
0.05

INTRADAY LEVELS
Aluminium yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.04% up at 117.95 tracking LME
MCX A

aluminum prices which opened at USD 2,671/mt,

2 671/mt and later strengthened supported by soaring crude PP
P.P. 118
118.0
0
oil prices and a weaker US dollar caused by the European Central Bank’s interest rate increase, with
the highest level reported at USD 2,694.3/mt, again setting a new high. At the end of trading, the
SUP 1 RES 1
7.4 magnitude aftershock in northeast Japan triggered panic sell-offs in the market, dragging down 117.3 118.7
LME aluminum prices to close at USD 2,680/mt, up USD 7.5/mt or 0.28% compared with the SUP 2 RES 2
previous trading day. Later, the US Labor Department announced that the initial jobless claims fell to 116.6 119.4
382k last week, down 10k from a week earlier. The better-than-expected employment data helped
SUP 3 RES 3
push up the US dollar index, but later a major aftershock measuring 7.4 magnitude hit northeast
Japan on Thursday evening, triggering large-scale sell-offs in the market. For today's session market 115.9 120.1

OPEN
UTURE

184.4
HIGH
185.1
LOW
179.3
T.GAS FU

CLOSE
180.5
% CNG
-2.11
VOLUME
34199
OI
15148
RE CNG
MCX NAT

-3.8

INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural gas yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -2.11% down at 180.5 for a fifth
day, dropping to the lowest level in three-weeks after the US EIA said natural gas inventories fell P.P. 181.6
less-than-expected last week. It earlier fell to USD4.034 per mBtu, the lowest price since March 17.
The contract traded at USD4.116 prior to the release of the EIA data. The U.S. EIA said in its weekly
SUP 1 RES 1
report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended April 1 fell by 45 bcf, after rising by 12 178.2 184.0
M

bcf in the preceding week. Market had expected U.S. natural gas storage to fall by 50 bcf. According SUP 2 RES 2
to the data, total U.S. natural gas storage in the week ended April 1 stood at 1.579 trillion cubic feet. 175.8 187.4
Stocks were 86 bcf less than last year at this time and 10 bcf above the five-year average of 1.569
SUP 3 RES 3
trillion cubic feet for this time of year. Prices were also pressured as forecasts showed warmer-than-
normal temperatures in the US next week, dampening demand expectations for the heating fuel. For 172.4 189.8

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 ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX

MONTH RATE JUNE AUG OCT MONTH RATE MAY JULY SEPT
JUNE 21177 294 589 MAY 57934 760 1526
AUG 21471 295 JULY 58694 766
OCT 21766 SEPT 59460
Spread between Gold JUN & AUG contracts yesterday Spread between Silver MAY & JUL contracts yesterday
ended at 294, we have seen yesterday that the gold ended at 760, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.05% market had traded with a positive node and settled
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 290 - 302. 0.39% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 711 -
760.

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY JUNE MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE
APRIL 4880 54 102 APRIL 432 5.95
MAY 4934 48 JUNE 437.95
JUNE 4982
Spread between crude MAR & APR contracts yesterday Spread between copper APR & JUN contracts yesterday
MARKET

ended at 54, we have seen yesterday that the crude ended at 5.95, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a positive node and settled 1.76% market had traded with a positive node and settled
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 52 - 59. 1.03% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 5.95 -
6.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN NICKEL - MCX

SPREAD M

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY MONTH RATE APRIL MAY

APRIL 108.6 1.15 APRIL 1198.6 8.2
MAY 109.75 MAY 1206.8

Spread between zinc APR & MAY contracts yesterday
ended at 1.15, we have seen yesterday that the zinc
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.87%
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 - 1.2.
S
Spread between nickel APR & MAY contracts yesterday
ended at 8.20, we have seen yesterday that the nickel
market had traded with a positive node and settled
2.01% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 8.00 -
8.2.

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY MONTH RATE APRIL MAY
APRIL 180.5 5.2 APRIL 1043.3 -54.5
MAY 185.7 MAY 988.8

Spread between natural gas APR & MAY contracts
yesterday ended at 5.20, we have seen yesterday that the
natural gas market had traded with a negative node and
settled -2.11% down. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of 4.9 - 5.3.
Spread between menthol oil APR & MAY contracts
yesterday ended at -54.50, we have seen yesterday that
the menthol oil market had traded with a positive node
and settled 0.33% up. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of -64.3 to -54.5.

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 DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous
AL

12:30am USD Consumer Credit m/m 4.8B 4.4B

ONOMICA

11:30am EUR German Trade Balance 13.3B 11.8B

12:15pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance 0 -13.4B
DATA

Day 2 EUR ECOFIN Meetings 0 0

7:30pm USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.011 0.011
7:45pm USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks 0 0
Fri 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
ECO

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

Wheat crops in China, the world’s biggest producer, and the US are threatened by continuing drought as La Nina
persists, weather forecasters said. The countries will be the last to emerge from the dry weather linked to La Nina, a
cooling of the Pacific Ocean, and the conditions may linger for two more months. Sustained dry conditions in China
and the US will parch crops that have already deteriorated in Texas and Oklahoma and that are developing in
northern China, BWS and DTN said. “Weather is going to be key,” Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, an analyst at Barclays
Capital, said in an interview in Singapore yesterday. “Even if we have a move-up in acreage, it doesn’t automatically
translate to an increase in production.”
SE
U CAN US

Copper's worst start in a decade may extend into this quarter as stockpiles expand, Chinese imports plunge and
Japan reels from its nuclear disaster, before rebounding to a record when shortages take hold. Stockpiles tracked by
the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 85% since the end of September, deterring imports. Analysts expect a drop in
purchases by Japan after the earthquake and tsunami on March 11 closed factories and caused the worst nuclear
accident in a quarter century. That trend should reverse because the country, the fourth-biggest copper user, will
need to rebuild, draining inventories as growth in mine output slows. Prices fell 1.8% in the first quarter, the worst
EWS YOU

f the
for h periodd since 200
2001, and
d ffutures traded
d d on the
h London
d Metall Exchange
h anticipate llittle
l change
h through
h h the
h endd
of the year, with the December contract at $9,376. Inventories monitored by exchanges in London, New York and
Shanghai climbed 19% to about 677,700 tonne this year, close to the highest since June. China will expand 9.5% this
year, from 10.3% in 2010, still more than five times the pace of the euro region, according to the median estimates
in Bloomberg surveys of as many as 19 economists. "Seasonally speaking, April is a strong month for copper
demand," said Leon Westgate, an analyst at Standard Bank in London. "If April fails to live up to its reputation as a
strong month in terms of demand, then the metal's immediate outlook is looking rather bleak." The events in Japan
and the Middle East mean that metals prices may stall in the next several months before rebounding, a team of
analysts led by London-based Jeffrey Currie at Goldman Sachs said in a report on March 29.
NE

The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent on Thursday, announcing its first
hike since July 2008 to counter firming inflation pressures in the 17-country euro zone. The euro was steady after the
decision, which ECB policymakers had flagged heavily in advance. The increase in the ECB's benchmark refinancing
rate marks a gentle exit from the central bank's policy response to the global financial crisis. It had held the refi rate
at a record low 1.0 percent since May 2009. The ECB also raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 0.50 percent,
and increased its marginal lending rate by the same amount to 2.0 percent.

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