’

Daily Commodity Market Update as on Monday, April 18, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
GOLD 21491 21592 21438 21571 0.37 Bullion ended higher as euro zone sovereign debt
SILVER 61750 62840 61684 62390 1.42 concerns worries over inflation and expectations U.S.
SPOT $ monetary policy will stay accommodative all conspired to
GOLD 1485.25 1488.7 1483.8 1486.2 -0.04 lift the precious metal.
SILVER 43.07 43.37 43.06 43.26 0.63
PLATINUM 1787.49 1787.5 1782.5 1787.5 0.27

ENERGY COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
CRUDE 4824 4878 4766 4852 0.97 Crude last week jumped as comments by Saudi Arabia
confirming a cut in crude production to counter an
N.GAS 188.3 188.7 186 187.5 -0.8
oversupplied market. Natural Gas slipped as forecasts
showed warmer-than-normal weather in the last week of
SPOT $ A il reducing
April, d i d
demandd ffor th
the h
heating
ti ffuel.
l
CRUDE 108.45 110.1 107.21 109.66 1.115722

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
COPPER 422 5
422.5 423 416 417 -1 16
-1.16 Base metals ended mixed as mounting inflationary
ZINC 107.35 107.6 105.65 105.9 -1.09 pressure in China cast a shadow over the near-term
NICKEL 1165 1178 1154 1164.9 0.27 demand outlook.
LEAD 119.3 120.35 117.75 119.5 0.59
ALUMINIUM 117.55 118.8 117.05 118.15 0.85

LME LME STOCK

COPPER 9360 9448 9345.25 9425.5 0.46 COPPER -375 450425
ZINC 2391 2406 2384 2398 0.33 ZINC 525 764250
NICKEL 26200 2694 26200 26300 0.44 NICKEL -702 120480
LEAD 2640 2652 2626 2651.25 -0.04 LEAD 3225 287075
ALUMINIUM 2681 2652 2680 2691.5 0.41 ALUMINIUM -2750 4566375

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
19551.11 5870.1 2307.58 1319.68 8400.31 12341.83 9570.86 3058.83 2135.36 24045.35 74.99
0.85 0.78 -0.16 0.39 0.31 0.46 -0.22 0.27 -0.24 0.16 0.14

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 OPEN
21491
HIGH
21592
FUTURE

LOW
21438
CLOSE
21571
% CNG
0.37
VOLUME
X GOLD F

29087
OI
10659
RE CNG
80

INTRADAY LEVELS
Gold ended positive as euro zone sovereign debt concerns worries over inflation and expectations
MCX

U.S. monetary policy will stay accommodative all conspired to lift the precious metal. While in the PP
P.P. 21534
short run gold is sensitive to any move lower in the euro, in the longer term these fears are set to
support the precious metal. The bullion market has found support one day from economic
SUP 1 RES 1
uncertainty and changes in risk sentiment, and on another day by high oil and food prices, and on 21475 21629
yet another by sovereign risk and fiscal concerns. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's SUP 2 RES 2
largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, jumped 1.5 percent to 1,231.159 tonnes by April 15, 21380 21688
from 1,212.964 tonnes on April 13. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 21475 and below could
SUP 3 RES 3
see a test of 21380. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 21629, a move above could see prices
testing 21688. 21321 21783

OPEN
61750
TURE

HIGH
62840
LOW
61684
LVER FUT

CLOSE
62390
% CNG
1.42
VOLUME
118260
OI
13682
MCX SIL

RE CNG
886

INTRADAY LEVELS
Silver rose to record high on concerns about rising inflation globally, and as a lingering Euro zone
sovereign debt crisis continued to boost safe-haven demand. Chinese inflation gauges rose strongly P.P. 62305
again and the overall U.S. producer and consumer inflation readings rose, but remained sub-1%. SUP 1 RES 1
Holdings in the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, iShares Silver Trust, rose by
61769 62925
69.81 tonnes, or 0.64 percent, from the previous session to 11,044.07 tonnes by April 15. Now
technically market is in overbot as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 80.26,
80 26 where as 50DMA is SUP 2 RES 2
at 54359.78 and silver is trading above the same and getting support at 61769 and below could see 61149 63461
a test of 61149 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 62925, a move above could see SUP 3 RES 3
prices testing 63461.
60613 64081

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 OPEN
4824
HIGH
X CRUDE FUTURE
E

4878
LOW
4766
CLOSE
4852
% CNG
0.97
VOLUME
114992
OI
9884
RE CNG
47

INTRADAY LEVELS
Crude last week jumped as comments by Saudi Arabia confirming a cut in crude production to
MCX

counter an oversupplied market. Saudi Arabia

Arabia's
s oil minister said the kingdom had slashed output by PP
P.P. 4832
800,000 barrels per day in March due to oversupply; sending the strongest signal yet that OPEC will
not act to quell soaring prices. Consumers have urged the exporters' group to pump more crude to
SUP 1 RES 1
put a cap on London's Brent oil, which surged to more than $127 a barrel this month. UAE Oil 4786 4898
Minister Mohammed bin Dhaen al Hamli said on Sunday that current oil prices do not reflect market SUP 2 RES 2
fundamentals and that demand was being met with adequate supplies, according to the UAE official 4720 4944
news agency. OPEC should be flexible in the future with its supply policy, the managing director of
SUP 3 RES 3
the International Energy Agency said on Sunday, but he stopped short of calling on the group to
add supply to the market. Now market is getting support at 4786 and below could see a test of 4674 5010

OPEN
422.5
TURE

HIGH
423
LOW
416
PPER FUT

CLOSE
417
% CNG
-1.16
VOLUME
95072
OI
28590
MCX COP

RE CNG
-4.85

INTRADAY LEVELS
Copper yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -1.16% down at 417 posting its biggest
weekly loss since mid-March, as mounting inflationary pressure in China cast a shadow over the P.P. 418.7
near-term demand outlook. Copper again shunned rallies in the precious metals complex, with gold
and silver surging to record and 31-year highs, respectively, as investors bought both metals as a
SUP 1 RES 1
hedge against global inflation worries and rising oil prices. Chinese consumer price inflation sped to 414.3 421.3
5.4 p
percent in the yyear to March,, the fastest since Julyy 2008 and topping
pp g market forecasts of 5.2 SUP 2 RES 2
percent. Gross domestic product in China, the world's top copper buyer, eased a touch. China 411.7 425.7
accounts for about 40 percent of copper demand. In yesterday's trading session copper has touched
SUP 3 RES 3
the low of 416 after opening at 422.5, and finally settled at 417. For today's session market is
looking to take support at 414.3, a break below could see a test of 411.7 and where as resistance is 407.3 428.3

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 OPEN
107.35
HIGH
107.6
FUTURE

LOW
105.65
CLOSE
105.9
% CNG
-1.09
VOLUME
CX ZINC F

19962
OI
8618
RE CNG
-1.15

INTRADAY LEVELS
Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved -1.09% as investors were worrying
about that China will take additional tightening monetary policies because of high inflation,
inflation PP
P.P. 106
106.4
4
MC

which will cut consumer demand. Global refined zinc production will exceed demand by SUP 1 RES 1
almost 200,000 tonnes this year, the fifth year running of over-supply, the Lisbon-based
105.2 107.1
International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said. Market has opened at 107.35 & made
a low of 105.65 versus the day high of 107.6. The total volume for the day was at 19962 lots SUP 2 RES 2
and the open interest was at 8618.Now support for the zinc is seen at 105.2 and below could 104.4 108.3
see a test of 104.4. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 107.1, a move above could see SUP 3 RES 3
prices testing 108.3. 103.2 109.1

OPEN
1165
TURE

HIGH
1178
LOW
1154
CKEL FUT

CLOSE
1164.9
% CNG
0.27
VOLUME
43187
OI
9727
MCX NIC

RE CNG
3.2

INTRADAY LEVELS

Nickel prices moved below all day moving averages, with great resistance above. Weighed by P.P. 1166
China's further tightening measures, LME nickel prices are expected to continue struggling. The SUP 1 RES 1
International Nickel Study Group (INSG) said it expects the global nickel market to record a 60,000-
1153 1177
tonne surplus this year, compared with a deficit of 30,000 tonnes in 2010.Nickel has touched a low
of Rs 1154 a kg after opening at Rs.1165,
Rs 1165 and last traded at Rs 1164.9.For
1164 9 For today market is looking SUP 2 RES 2
for the support at 1153.3, a break below could see a test of 1141.6 and where as resistance is now 1142 1190
likely to be seen at 1177.3, a move above could see prices testing 1189.6. SUP 3 RES 3
1129 1201

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 URE
OPEN
117.55
HIGH
ALUMINIUM FUTU

118.8
LOW
117.05
CLOSE
118.15
% CNG
0.85
VOLUME
4931
OI
1935
RE CNG
1

INTRADAY LEVELS
MCX A

Aluminium
Al i i prices
i gained
i d supported d b
by hi
higher
h energy prices,
i with
i h prices
i returning
i to above
b 5
5-day
d PP
P.P. 118
118.0
0
and 10-day moving averages. Aluminium stocks held at three major Japanese ports came to SUP 1 RES 1
201,200 tonnes at the end of March, down 6,900 tonnes or 3.3 percent from a month earlier,
117.2 119.0
trading house Marubeni Corp said. Aluminium has touched a low of Rs 117.05 a kg after opening at
Rs 117.55, and last traded at Rs118.15.For today market is looking for the support at 117.2, a SUP 2 RES 2
break below could see a test of 116.3 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 119, a 116.3 119.8
move above could see prices testing 119.8. SUP 3 RES 3
115.5 120.7

OPEN
UTURE

188.3
HIGH
188.7
LOW
186
T.GAS FU

CLOSE
187.5
% CNG
-0.8
VOLUME
20683
OI
11091
RE CNG
MCX NAT

-1.5

INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural Gas yesterday we have seen that market has moved -0.8% as forecasts showed warmer-
than-normal weather in the last week of April, reducing demand for the heating fuel. About 52 P.P. 187.4
percent of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department. The
stockpile increase matched the five-year average gain for the week, leaving the storage surplus
SUP 1 RES 1
unchanged from the previous week at 0.6 percent. A deficit to year-earlier supplies widened to 7.9 186.1 188.8
M

percent from 5.2 p

p percent. The number of g
gas drilling
g rigs
g in the U.S. fell 4 to 885 this week. Market SUP 2 RES 2
has opened at 188.3 & made a low of 186 versus the day high of 188.7. The total volume for the 184.7 190.1
day was at 20683 lots and the open interest was at 11091.Now support for the Natural Gas is seen
SUP 3 RES 3
at 186.1 and below could see a test of 184.7. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 188.8, a move
above could see prices testing 190.1. 183.4 191.5

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 ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX

MONTH RATE JUNE AUG OCT MONTH RATE MAY JULY SEPT
JUNE 21571 292 627 MAY 62390 871 1848
AUG 21863 335 JULY 63261 977
OCT 22198 SEPT 64238
Spread between Gold JUN & AUG contracts yesterday Spread between Silver MAY & JUL contracts yesterday
ended at 292, we have seen yesterday that the gold ended at 871, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a positive node and settled market had traded with a positive node and settled
0.37% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 288 - 1.42% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 821 -
327. 902.

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY JUNE MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE
APRIL 4852 56 106 APRIL 417 7.15
MAY 4908 50 JUNE 424.15
JUNE 4958
Spread between crude MAR & APR contracts yesterday Spread between copper APR & JUN contracts yesterday
MARKET

ended at 56, we have seen yesterday that the crude ended at 7.15, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a positive node and settled market had traded with a negative node and settled -
0.97% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 52 - 1.16% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
58. 6.6 - 7.15.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN NICKEL - MCX

SPREAD M

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY MONTH RATE APRIL MAY

APRIL 105.9 1.4 APRIL 1164.9 9.8
MAY 107.3 MAY 1174.7

Spread between zinc APR & MAY contracts yesterday
ended at 1.4, we have seen yesterday that the zinc
market had traded with a negative node and settled -
1.09% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 -
1.45.
S
Spread between nickel APR & MAY contracts yesterday
ended at 9.80, we have seen yesterday that the nickel
market had traded with a positive node and settled
0.27% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 9.70 -
11.

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY MONTH RATE APRIL MAY
APRIL 187.5 4.5 APRIL 1046.3 -46.2
MAY 192 MAY 1000.1

Spread between natural gas APR & MAY contracts
yesterday ended at 4.50, we have seen yesterday that
the natural gas market had traded with a negative node
and settled -0.8% down. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of 4.3 - 4.5.
Spread between menthol oil APR & MAY contracts
yesterday ended at -46.20, we have seen yesterday that
the menthol oil market had traded with a positive node
and settled 0.55% up. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of -47 to -42.9.

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 DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous
AL

7:30pm EUR Consumer Confidence -10 -11

ONOMICA

7:30pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 17 17

8:00pm USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks 0 0
DATA

10:00pm USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks 0 0

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
Mon 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0
ECO

0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

International wheat companies Cargill, Louis Dreyfus, Olam India and Glencore (Agri Core) have started procuring
wheat from Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis. A bumper production and an increase in supplies have pushed prices
down by 10% in the past fortnight to 1,025 a quintal in the Rajkot mandi. Across Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh,
Punjab and Haryana supplies are yet to pick up pace.pace Kirit Parekh,
Parekh the owner of Rajkotbased trading company RK
Industries, said, "Prices have fallen from 235 for 20 kg to 205 for 20 kg in the past fortnight. Major players such as
Cargill, Louis Dreyfus and Olam are procuring thanks to a bumper crop this year compared to the previous year."
Although prices should drop due to selling pressure, he said that FCI procurement at 224 for 20 kg could arrest a
further decline. With production expected to touch 3.5 million tonne from 2.2 million tonne in the previous year,
major trading, food processing and milling houses are zeroing in on Gujarat which offers other incentives. ITC's agri
business division has been procuring the Lok 1 variety for 1,100 per quintal and the 4037 variety at 1,100 to 1,200 a
quintal, said Rakesh Khandelwal, a Kota-based trader. The ITC food division, however, has yet to start procurement
SE

for its Ashirwad atta brand and biscuits. Other major local processing companies such as Shakti Bhog , Parle and
Britannia have entered or pplanningg to step
p into the market in the next one week when Uttar Pradesh begins
g supplies.
pp
U CAN US

ITC's agri business division has been procuring the Lok 1 variety for 1,100 per quintal and the 4037 variety at 1,100
to 1,200 a quintal, said Rakesh Khandelwal, a Kota-based trader. The ITC food division, however, has yet to start

Global experts meeting this week are likely to forecast a near-normal monsoon for India, providing international
commodities market the first hints of demand and supply in 2011-12 from one of the world’s top producers and
consumers of key farm goods. Failure of monsoons can force India into the international markets as a buyer,
pushing up global prices of basic foodstuffs, while favourable rainfall can boost its exports, helping governments
throughout Asia to battle food inflation. Agriculture accounts for a 14.6 per cent of India’s GDP and the outcome of
EWS YOU

the
h annuall JJune-September
S b southwest
h monsoons iimpacts the
h nation’s
i ’ economy, whichhi h iis struggling
li with
i h hi
high
h ffood
d
inflation and a massive subsidy bill for fuel, grains and fertilisers. A normal monsoon means the country receives
rainfall between 96-104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 centimetres during the four-month rainy season,
according to the India’s weather office classification. Monsoon also impact demand for gold in India, the world’s top
consumer of the metal, as purchases get a boost when farming incomes rise amid high crop output. Rural areas
account for about 70 per cent of India’s annual gold consumption. India witnessed normal rains last year and the
April 13-15 meeting of weather officials in the southwestern city of Pune is likely to forecast a near-normal monsoon
this year based on various forecasting models, Indian officials said.
NE

Inflation in Eurozone accelerated more than previously estimated in March, driven by surging transport and housing
costs, latest figures from Eurostat showed Friday. It is the fourth month in a row that inflation has been above the
European Central Bank's target. Inflation was at 2.7 percent in March, higher than the 2.6 percent estimated in the
flash report and the fastest since October 2008. In February, the rate was 2.4 percent. ECB has an inflation target of
'below but close to 2 percent'. Economists believe that the latest spike in inflation levels may prompt the central
bank to hike its key policy rate further before long after lifting the rate by a quarter point to 1.25
1 25 percent in the April
meeting. That was the first rate hike since July 2008.

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Profit(es)
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