Daily Commodity Market Update as on Tuesday, May 03, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
Gold fell from a record high on Monday and silver notched
GOLD 22770 22835 22430 22820 -0.86 its biggest one-day loss after the killing of Osama bin
SILVER 71100 71100 65702 71350 -4.05 Laden sapped the safe-haven premium out of precious
SPOT $ metals.Silver recovered significantly and trimmed losses,
GOLD 1537.89 1547.3 1534.6 1531 1.06 while from its earlier plunge as optimism over the death
of Osama bin Laden appeared to be short-lived.
SILVER 43.85 45.34 43.86 44.06 2.5
PLATINUM 1861 1865 1851.5 1861 0.32

ENERGY COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
Crude oil settled firm but pared most of its gains on the
CRUDE 5040 5097 4933 5055 0.16 view that the death of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden
N.GAS 207.9 210.7 206.5 208.3 -0.05 would curb global security risks. Natural gas ended flat
after jumping to a 14-week high amid speculation warmer-
SPOT $ than-normal weather and declining production would
widen a stockpile deficit.
CRUDE 113.89 114.83 110.82 113.52 -0.324875

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
Base metal ended mixed with technical momentum
COPPER 415.9 417.8 407.65 415.9 0.26
kicking but softer manufacturing data from the world's
ZINC 100.9 101.45 99.25 101.2 0
top two consumers kept short-term demand worries front
NICKEL 1196.2 1196.2 1170.1 1202.4 -0.79 and center.
LEAD 112 113.9 110.1 112.8 0.57
ALUMINIUM 122.2 122.2 121.35 122.55 -0.53

LME LME STOCK

COPPER 9239.5 9309.75 9219.75 9371 -0.85 COPPER 150 463650
ZINC 2230 2269.75 2227 2265 -0.71 ZINC 4675 821375
NICKEL 26737 2769.5 26580 26845 -0.73 NICKEL -588 117384
LEAD 2505 2505 2490 2514.5 -0.56 LEAD 1000 308375
ALUMINIUM 2766 2505 2762.25 2764 -0.04 ALUMINIUM 5950 4612050

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
18955.29 5689.3 2404.24 1361.22 8649.61 12807.36 10004.2 2916.84 2195.35 23763.43 73.1
-0.22 -0.21 0.01 -0.18 -0.25 -0.02 0 0.18 -1.5 0.18 0.19

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 OPEN
22770
HIGH
22835
MCX GOLD FUTURE

LOW
22430
CLOSE
22820
% CNG
-0.86
VOLUME
46542
OI
13896
RE CNG
-194

INTRADAY LEVELS
Gold trimmed losses on Monday, significantly from its earlier plunge as optimism over the death of Al
P.P. 22630
Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden appeared to be short-lived. Earlier dollar was boosted by the
perception that that Bin Laden's death could make the U.S. less subject to further terrorist. SUP 1 RES 1
Furthermore, the death of bin Laden will do nothing to curb accelerating global inflation or provide a 22426 22831
solution to the euro zone’s ongoing sovereign debt crisis. Dollar weakness has been fueling the rally SUP 2 RES 2
in gold as economic uncertainties and speculation of more monetary easing by the Fed. Now gold is
22225 23035
getting support at 22426 and below could see a test of 22225 level, and resistance is now likely to
be seen at 22831, a move above could see prices testing 23035. SUP 3 RES 3
22021 23236

OPEN
71100
MCX SILVER FUTURE

HIGH
71100
LOW
65702
CLOSE
71350
% CNG
-4.05
VOLUME
139991
OI
13869
RE CNG
-2775

INTRADAY LEVELS
Silver recovered significantly and trimmed losses, while from its earlier plunge as optimism over the
death of Osama bin Laden appeared to be short-lived. Silver prices tumbled, marking their biggest P.P. 68459
loss since late 2008 dropping by 7.91 percent to 65702 and later recovered and settled at -4.05 that SUP 1 RES 1
is at 68575, and in international Silver dropped as much as 13% to a ten-day low of $42.23 after
65818 71216
CME Group, operator of Comex raised the amount of cash that traders must deposit for speculative
positions. Dollar weakness has been fueling the rally in bullion as economic uncertainties and SUP 2 RES 2
speculation of more monetary easing by Fed. Now silver is getting support at 65818 and below could 63061 73857
see a test of 63061 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 71216, a move above could see SUP 3 RES 3
prices testing 73857.
60420 76614

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 OPEN
5040
HIGH
MCX CRUDE FUTURE

5097
LOW
4933
CLOSE
5055
% CNG
0.16
VOLUME
151204
OI
18340
RE CNG
8

INTRADAY LEVELS
Crude oil turned higher as optimism over news of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden’s death
appeared to be short-lived and as the U.S. dollar resumed its decline. Dollar was boosted by the P.P. 5028
perception that that bin Laden's death could make the U.S. less subject to further terrorist attacks, SUP 1 RES 1
but some analysts remained skeptical of whether it would reduce the security risks facing the U.S.
4960 5124
NATO air strikes over the weekend killed Gaddafi’s youngest son and three of his grandchildren. Anti-
government protests escalated in Syria, while violence continued in Yemen in an attempt to maintain SUP 2 RES 2
pressure on President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Now crude is getting support at 4960 and below could see 4864 5192
a test of 4864 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 5124, a move above could see prices SUP 3 RES 3
testing 5192.
4796 5288

OPEN
415.9
MCX COPPER FUTURE

HIGH
417.8
LOW
407.65
CLOSE
415.9
% CNG
0.26
VOLUME
83096
OI
25502
RE CNG
1.1

INTRADAY LEVELS

Copper yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.26% up at 417 as yesterday shangain P.P. 414.2
and LME was closed on account of May 1st, China announced its manufacturing PMI was 52.9% in SUP 1 RES 1
April, down from March's 53.4%, well below market expectations of 54.0%, a sign of slowing growth
410.5 420.7
in China's manufacturing industry. Later, the US announced its ISM manufacturing data was 60.4%
in April, higher than market expectations of 60.1%, helping the US dollar index rally. For today's SUP 2 RES 2
session market is looking to take support at 410.5, a break below could see a test of 404 and where 404.0 424.3
as resistance is now likely to be seen at 420.7, a move above could see prices testing 424.3. SUP 3 RES 3
400.4 430.8

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 OPEN
100.9
HIGH
101.45
MCX ZINC FUTURE

LOW
99.25
CLOSE
101.2
% CNG
0
VOLUME
8671
OI
11431
RE CNG
0

INTRADAY LEVELS
Zinc yesterday traded with the range bound and settled at 101.2. The overall transactions were
quiet on account of the Labor Day holiday in Shanghai and LME. Last Friday, SHFE three-month zinc P.P. 100.6
contract prices opened lower at RMB 17,400/mt, and mostly moved between RMB 17,250 - SUP 1 RES 1
17,350/mt during the day. Investors left the market ahead of the Labor Day holiday, resulting in
99.8 102.0
quiet transactions. SHFE zinc prices fell to RMB 17,250-17,350/mt, and spot transactions were also
muted. Downstream buyers were cautious at fluctuating zinc prices.In yesterday's trading session SUP 2 RES 2
zinc has touched the low of 99.25 after opening at 100.9, and finally settled at 101.2. For today's 98.4 102.8
session market is looking to take support at 99.8, a break below could see a test of 98.4 and where SUP 3 RES 3
as resistance is now likely to be seen at 102, a move above could see prices testing 102.8.
97.6 104.2

OPEN
1196
MCX NICKEL FUTURE

HIGH
1196
LOW
1170
CLOSE
1202.4
% CNG
-0.79
VOLUME
19610
OI
5639
RE CNG
-9.4

INTRADAY LEVELS
Nickel yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.79% down at 1193 LME was closed for
2 session that is on Friday and Monday on account for Royal weeding on Friday and Labour day on P.P. 1186
Monday. LME nickel for delivery in three months opened at USD 26,800/mt and closed at USD SUP 1 RES 1
26,845/mt last Thursday, up by USD 85/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD
1177 1203
27,000/mt and the lowest price at USD 26,400/mt. Trading sentiment turned quiet, and traders'
willingness to move goods was not high with the approach of National Day holiday. Supply of nickel SUP 2 RES 2
from Russia was reduced to certain extent, with relatively firm prices reported. For today's session 1160 1213
market is looking to take support at 1176.7, a break below could see a test of 1160.3 and where as SUP 3 RES 3
resistance is now likely to be seen at 1202.8, a move above could see prices testing 1212.5.
1151 1229

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MCX ALUMINIUM FUTURE
OPEN
122.2
HIGH
122.2
LOW
121.35
CLOSE
122.55
% CNG
-0.53
VOLUME
1491
OI
3288
RE CNG
-0.65

INTRADAY LEVELS
Aluminium yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.53% down at 121.9. On May 2nd,
ISM announced the index of the manufacturing sector was 60.4% during April, higher than the
P.P. 121.8
expected 59.5%. The US dollar index opened at 73.01 and closed at 73.15 after hitting a low of
72.72, up 0.17%. The US President Obama said Bin Laden was killed in a firefight during a “targeted SUP 1 RES 1
operation” that Mr. Obama ordered in Pakistan, and market players expected that the stabilized 121.4 122.3
situation in Middle East will increase crude oil supply, and crude oil for June delivery slipped 41 cents SUP 2 RES 2
to settle at USD 113.52/bbl on NYMEX as a result. LME market was closed on Monday for a holiday.
121.0 122.7
For today's session market is looking to take support at 121.4, a break below could see a test of 121
and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 122.3, a move above could see prices testing SUP 3 RES 3
122.7. 120.6 123.1

OPEN
MCX NAT.GAS FUTURE

207.9
HIGH
210.7
LOW
206.5
CLOSE
208.3
% CNG
-0.05
VOLUME
25815
OI
5701
RE CNG
-0.1

INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural gas yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.05% down at 208.2 but overall
trading firm jumping to a 14-week high amid speculation warmer-than-normal weather and declining P.P. 208.5
production would widen a stockpile deficit. The U.S. EIA said last Thursday that total U.S. natural SUP 1 RES 1
gas storage in the week ended April 22 stood at 1.685 trillion cubic feet, 0.6% below the five-year
206.2 210.4
average. Inventories fell below the five-year average for the first time since the week ended Feb 25.
Stockpiles were 11% below 2010 levels, the widest year-on-year deficit since early August 2008. For SUP 2 RES 2
today's session market is looking to take support at 206.2, a break below could see a test of 204.3 204.3 212.7
and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 210.4, a move above could see prices testing SUP 3 RES 3
212.7.
202.0 214.6

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 ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX

MONTH RATE JUNE AUG OCT MONTH RATE JULY SEPT DEC
JUNE 22626 297 688 JULY 68575 560 1434
AUG 22923 391 SEPT 69135 874
OCT 23314 DEC 70009
Spread between Gold JUN & AUG contracts yesterday Spread between Silver JUL & SEP contracts yesterday
ended at 297, we have seen yesterday that the gold ended at 560, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a negative node and settled -
0.86% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 0 - 4.05% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of -
297. 1945 - 560.

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE JULY MONTH RATE JUNE AUG
MAY 5055 52 98 JUNE 417 5.35
JUNE 5107 46 AUG 422.35
JULY 5153
Spread between crude APR & MAY contracts yesterday Spread between copper JUN & AUG contracts yesterday
SPREAD MARKET

ended at 52, we have seen yesterday that the crude ended at 5.35, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.16% market had traded with a positive node and settled
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 21 - 55. 0.26% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1.7 -
5.35.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN NICKEL - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE MONTH RATE MAY JUNE
MAY 101.2 1.35 MAY 1193 9.8
JUNE 102.55 JUNE 1202.8

Spread between zinc MAY & JUN contracts yesterday
ended at 1.35, we have seen yesterday that the zinc
market had traded with a range bound node and settled
0% flat. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 0.9 -
1.35.
Spread between nickel MAY & JUN contracts yesterday
ended at 9.80, we have seen yesterday that the nickel
market had traded with a negative node and settled -
0.79% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
9.10 - 10.6.

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE MONTH RATE MAY JUNE
MAY 208.2 5 MAY 1048.1 -91.7
JUNE 213.2 JUNE 956.4

Spread between natural gas MAY & JUN contracts
yesterday ended at 5.00, we have seen yesterday that the
natural gas market had traded with a negative node and
settled -0.05% down. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of 4.6 - 5.2.
Spread between menthol oil MAY & JUN contracts
yesterday ended at -91.70, we have seen yesterday that
the menthol oil market had traded with a positive node
and settled 0.8% up. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of -91.7 to -84.5.

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 DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous
ECONOMICAL

2:30pm EUR PPI m/m 0.007 0.008

7:30pm USD Factory Orders m/m 0.019 -0.001
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 13.0M 13.1M
DATA

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
Tue 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

India’s pulses imports in the crop year 2010-11 (July-June) are likely to fall 14.28 per cent to 3 million tonnes
compared to 3.5 million tonnes shipped in the year-ago period. Higher production in the country will lead to low
imports, traders and importers said. In its third advanced crop estimate earlier this month, the ministry of agriculture
said pulses production in 2010-11 could be 17.3 million tonnes, the highest ever. It pegged tur production at 3.2
million tonnes, urad at 1.8 million tonnes and moong at 1.4 million tonnes. Trade sources and experts put India’s
annual pulses demand at 19 million tonnes, out of which nearly 3-4 million tonnes is imported. The country is the
biggest importer and consumer of pulses. India imports yellow peas mainly from Canada, Ukraine and the US. Yellow
peas demand grew in 2009-10 when consumers started using it as a cheaper substitute to tur dal, which was then
priced at Rs 70 a kg. Even though tur dal rates have nearly halved in past couple of months because of arrival
NEWS YOU CAN USE

pressure and better production, yellow split peas are still quoting cheaper, at about Rs 15-18 a kg across the country.

Global natural rubber production for 2011 may come in at 10.025 million tonne, lower than an earlier forecast of
10.060 million tonne due to output revisions in member countries, the ANRPC said. Despite the revision, the global
output for the commodity mainly used in tyre was still higher than 9.473 million tonne in 2010, according to the
Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC). The ANRPC's total supply would rise this year by 5.8%,
slightly slower than the previously-expected 6.2% rate, the group said in a report. The revision results from down-
scaling of Thailand's figure and China; and slightly improved outlook expected for Indonesia and India. Output in
Thailand, the world's main rubber producer, was revised down to 3.375 million tonne in 2011 from an earlier forecast
of 3.430 million tonne, still higher than 3.252 million tonne in 2010. Second-largest producer Indonesia's output
forecast was raised to 2.972 million tonne from a prior estimate of 2.955 million tonne. Last year, Indonesia
produced 2.736 million tonne.

The Reserve Bank of India, battling surging price pressures, is widely expected to lift key interest rates by 25 basis
points when announcing its annual monetary policy on May 3, even as some economists call for a 50 basis point rise.
A quarter-point rise would take the repo rate, at which it lends to banks, to 7 percent and the reverse repo rate, at
which banks park funds with it to 6 percent, and would be the ninth increase in rates by the Reserve Bank of India
since March 2010. Following a March headline inflation reading of nearly 9 percent, analysts now expect the RBI to
raise rates a total of 75 basis points for the rest of 2011, or 25 basis points more than they anticipated in mid-March.

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