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10 SEPTEMBER 2009
COMMODITIES TRADING
12 SEPTEMBER 2009
COMMODITIES TRADING
firm lost nearly US$200 million in wrong-way bets and had an overall was negotiated before the cut-off date
loss for the year of US$34 million. Salomon’s management allowed of February 11th 2009. Andrew Hall
Hall to continue running Phibro Energy, but with a substantially may agree to be compensated partially
reduced staff and limiting the scope to the operations to crude oil in Citigroup’s stock, but it is unlikely
trading. The refineries and oil production in Russia were removed that he will agree to a pay cut.
from Hall’s control. Looking forward, Phibro’s days within
Throughout most of the 1990s, Phibro kept a low profile as an Citigroup look numbered. Many critics
independent proprietary trading group earning large risk-adjusted believe that an energy hedge-fund
returns as part of Salomon Inc. should not be part of a government
In 1992, Salomon was involved in a series of high profile scandals partly owned bank. Higher levels of
as some of its top traders were caught attempting to manipulate disclosure and increased scrutiny on
the US treasury bond market. Salomon’s
Chairman resigned and Warren Buffet took ... new regulatory constraints on energy speculative
over Salomon in the interim. trading, combined with increased competition from
In 1998, Salomon’s proprietary desks other investments banks, will make it difficult for Phibro
suffered serious losses. It appears that
Andrew Hall was an outspoken critic of
to enjoy the consistency achieved in recent years
Salomon’s strategies back then, but he was not able to prevent the pay levels do not appear particularly
firm from betting the house – and losing. appealing to Andrew Hall and Phibro’s
In 1998, Traveler’s Group purchased Salomon Inc., to create traders. In addition, new regulatory
Salomon Smith Barney. Then Travelers merged with Citicorp later constraints on energy speculative
that year to create the behemoth Citigroup. trading, combined with increased
One of Citigroup’s early decisions was to sell or close-out many of competition from other investments
the Salomon large proprietary trading desks. The liquidation of the banks, will make it difficult for Phibro
proprietary desk positions is believed to be one of the drivers behind to enjoy the consistency achieved in
the liquidity crisis of the summer of 1998 that led to the fall of Long recent years. •
Term Capital Management. Citigroup also eventually dropped the In our next article, we will explore in
Salomon and Travelers names, but kept Phibro as an independent greater depth some of the main physical
proprietary trading group. and financial trading strategies pursued
Phibro managed to maintain a deal with Citigroup by which the by Phibro in the last few years.
firm enjoyed inexpensive financing as well as a strong credit rating to
support its trading positions, as well as a very generous profit-sharing
Carlos Blanco is Managing Director
arrangement. Even though Andrew Hall could have easily started his
of Black Swan Risk Advisors, LLC, a firm
own hedge fund or similar, the deal with Citigroup was as lucrative
providing risk advisory and financial
as the profit sharing arrangements of most hedge funds, and Hall did engineering services to assist in the
not have to risk his own capital. design, development and validation
In the period between 2002 and 2008, Citigroup reported over of trading, optimization and hedging
US$3 billion in profits from Commodity Trading* while taking strategies for energy, commodity and
relatively low risk (see Figure 1 for Trading Results and Value at Risk financial services firms worldwide.
numbers.) Phibro also managed to maintain independence from He is also the Managing Director of
Citigroup efforts to merge the unit into the asset management arm. NQuantX, LLC, a financial engineering
The only reference to Phibro in Citigroup’s annual reports is in the firm that develops customized
footnotes of the breakdown of the trading profit and losses of the software to design and implement
bank. The footnote has not changed in the last 5 years, and briefly hedging programmes for energy and
mentions that commodity trading results, which accidentally happen commodity firms. He is a lecturer on
to be a substantial percentage of Citigroup’s profits, ‘primarily risk management at the University
includes the results of Phibro LLC, which trades crude oil, refined oil of California, Berkeley and conducts
products, natural gas, and other commodities.’ several courses on energy derivatives
Going back to the ‘excessive compensation’ issue, it turns out that hedging, pricing and risk management
Hall’s bonus will be exempt from review from the pay czar because it as well as credit and counterparty risk
management for the Oxford-Princeton
References Programme.
“President of Phibro Is Promoted to Chief.” Cowan, Alison L. BusinessWeek. December 5, 1991 E: carlos@blackswanrisk.com
“Will Phibro’s Daddy Squash Its Ambitions?” BusinessWeek, March 25, 1991 The author would like to thank Chris
“Salomon to Absorb Its Phibro Energy Unit”. New York Times. December 3, 1992 Mammarelli for his extensive contribution
“Trader Hits Jackpot in Oil: As Commodity Boom Roars On Mr. Hall Bet Early On Market Shift; to this article.
Buoying Citigroup.” Davis, Ann ( 2008) February 28; Page A1 www.blackswanrisk.com
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