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MENA-1 MONDAY MORNING ROUND-UP EuroMoney is currently conducting its Middle East Research and Best Managed Companies Survey. To vote for EFG hermes, go to www.euromoney.com / MiddleEast2011.
MENA-1 MONDAY MORNING ROUND-UP EuroMoney is currently conducting its Middle East Research and Best Managed Companies Survey. To vote for EFG hermes, go to www.euromoney.com / MiddleEast2011.
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Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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MENA-1 MONDAY MORNING ROUND-UP EuroMoney is currently conducting its Middle East Research and Best Managed Companies Survey. To vote for EFG hermes, go to www.euromoney.com / MiddleEast2011.
Droits d'auteur :
Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Formats disponibles
Téléchargez comme PDF, TXT ou lisez en ligne sur Scribd
EuroMoney
is
currently
conducting
its
Middle
East
Research
and
Best
Managed
Companies
Survey.
The
EuroMoney
Survey
runs
until
24
June
2011.
To
vote
for
EFG
Hermes,
go
to
www.euromoney.com/MiddleEast2011
Thank
you
for
your
support.
UAE
Aldar
begins
handover
of
Motor
World
Dubai
Airports’
passenger
traffic
up
13.2%
Y-o-Y
in
April
2011
GGICO
defaults
on
AED489.2
million
bank
loan
Kuwait
MPs
file
request
to
question
Prime
Minister
Sheikh
Nasser
on
favouring
ties
with
Iran
Qatar
QatarGas
sells
first
LNG
shipment
to
Greece
Gulf
Drilling
International
raises
USD430
million
credit
facility
to
finance
expansion
Bahrain
Batelco’s
bid
hits
snag
on
management
rights
of
Zain
Saudi
EFG
Hermes
Research
MENA
Macroeconomic
Quarterly
2Q2011
-
Oil:
Opposing
Economic
Supports
and
Stresses
-
23
May
2011
Oman
Telecommunications
Company
(Omantel)
-
Bearish
Operational
Outlook
Drives
Downgrade
-
Company
Note
-
22
May
2011
Agenda
Qatar
Wed
25
May
>>
Vodafone
Qatar
FY2010-‐2011
(March
year
end)
results
Wed
1
June
>>
Al
Khaliji
Commercial
Bank
BOD
meeting
Sun
5
June
>>
Mannai
Corporation
BOD
meeting
UAE
News
Aldar
begins
handover
of
Motor
World
Aldar
Properties
(ALDR.AD)
announced
that
it
is
now
handing
over
100
showrooms
within
the
first
phase
of
Motor
World.
The
second
phase
of
the
project
will
also
comprise
100
showrooms
and
is
expected
to
be
completed
by
FY2012.
Motor
World
has
signed
a
memorandum
of
understanding
(MOU)
with
Al
Futtaim
Automotive
that
will
bring
the
Toyota,
Lexus,
Honda,
Chrysler,
Jeep,
Dodge,
and
Volvo
brands
to
Motor
World.
(Company
Disclosure)
Aldar
Properties:
AED1.44,
Rating:
Buy,
FV:
AED1.84,
MCap:
USD1,130
million,
ALDAR
UH
/
ALDR.AD
Dubai
Airports’
passenger
traffic
up
13.2%
Y-o-Y
in
April
2011
Dubai
Airports
said
on
19
May
2011
that
the
number
of
passengers
rose
13.2%
Y-‐o-‐Y
in
April
2011,
and
that
it
expects
50
million
travellers
to
pass
through
the
transport
hub
by
the
end
of
2011.
In
April,
4.23
million
passengers
passed
through
Dubai
International
Airport.
(Zawya
Dow
Jones)
GGICO
defaults
on
AED489.2
million
bank
loan
Gulf
General
Investment
Company
(GGICO)
[GGIC.DU]
has
failed
to
pay
bank
loans
worth
AED489.2
million
as
at
31
March
2011.
In
its
financial
statement
for
1Q2011,
the
company
said
that
it
had
defaulted
on
the
repayment
of
bank
loans
amounting
to
AED489.2
million,
while
the
non-‐current
portion
of
the
defaulted
loans
as
at
31
March
2011
stood
at
AED685.9
million,
which
has
been
reclassified
as
current
liabilities
as
per
IFRS
requirements.
(Zawya
Dow
Jones)
Kuwait
News
MPs
file
request
to
question
Prime
Minister
Sheikh
Nasser
on
favouring
ties
with
Iran
Three
opposition
lawmakers
demanded
to
question
Prime
Minister
Sheikh
Nasser
for
allegedly
harming
national
security
by
favouring
ties
with
Iran
over
Gulf
Arab
states.
The
MPs
also
blame
Prime
Minster
Sheikh
Nasser
for
damaging
ties
with
Gulf
Arab
partners
by
failing
to
promptly
dispatch
troops
to
Bahrain
to
help
restraining
protests.
(Zawya
Dow
Jones)
Qatar
News
QatarGas
sells
first
LNG
shipment
to
Greece
QatarGas
announced
yesterday
that
it
sold
liquefied
natural
gas
(LNG)
for
the
first
time
to
Greece,
thus
further
expanding
the
company’s
European
footprint,
Zawya
Dow
Jones
reported.
Some
141,014
cubic
metres
of
LNG
were
delivered
on
a
specifically
designed
tanker
to
the
Revithoussa
LNG
Terminal,
west
of
Athens,
QatarGas
said
in
an
emailed
statement
without
mentioning
when
the
shipment
was
made.
Europe
accounts
for
around
45%
of
QatarGas’
market
share.
(Zawya
Dow
Jones)
Gulf
Drilling
International
raises
USD430
million
credit
facility
to
finance
expansion
Gulf
Drilling
International
Ltd.,
a
subsidiary
of
Gulf
International
Services
Company
(GISS.QA),
announced
that
it
has
raised
USD430
million
through
a
syndicated
facility
to
finance
its
expansion
plans,
Bloomberg
reported.
Qatar
National
Bank
(QNB)
[QNBK.QA],
Samba
Financial
Group
(1090.SE)
and
International
Bank
of
Qatar
arranged
the
facility,
GDI
said
in
an
emailed
statement.
The
facility,
which
has
a
term
of
10
years
and
four
months,
will
be
used
to
finance
a
planned
USD538
million
expansion
plan
that
includes
the
construction
of
two
hi-‐spec
premium
jack-‐up
rigs,
two
land
rigs
and
the
acquisition
of
a
jack-‐up
accommodation
barge,
according
to
GDI.
(Bloomberg)
Bahrain
News
Batelco’s
bid
hits
snag
on
management
rights
of
Zain
Saudi
According
to
press
reports,
Bahrain
Telecom’s
(BTEL.BH)
bid
for
Zain
Saudi
(7030.SE)
hit
a
snag
on
management
rights.
Batelco
wants
to
manage
Zain
Saudi
if
the
deal
goes
through,
or
it
will
lower
its
USD950
million
bid
for
Zain
Group’s
(ZAIN.KW)
25%
share
in
the
company.
Batelco
is
jointly
bidding
for
Zain
Saudi
along
with
Kingdom
Holdings
(4280.SE).
According
to
a
source,
Zain
Saudi
does
not
see
why
it
should
grant
Batelco
such
rights
when
it
can
manage
the
firm
on
its
own.
(Reuters)
Zain
Saudi
Arabia:
SAR7.35,
Rating:
Sell,
FV:
SAR7.78,
MCap:
USD2,799
million,
ZAINKSA
AB
/
7030.SE
MENA
Macroeconomic
Quarterly
2Q2011
-
Oil:
Opposing
Economic
Supports
and
Stresses
-
23
May
2011
Focus
Theme:
Revise
Our
MENA
Forecasts
on
Higher
Oil
Price
Assumptions:
We
revise
our
economic
forecasts
for
the
MENA
region
to
reflect
our
higher
oil
price
assumptions,
which
we
maintain
following
the
oil
price
correction
in
early
May.
We
now
forecast
a
Brent
crude
price
of
USD110.0
p/b
in
2011
and
USD105.0
p/b
in
2012,
up
from
USD98.0
p/b
for
both
years.
GCC:
Widening
Fiscal
and
Current
Account
Surpluses,
Accelerating
Growth:
We
increase
our
nominal
GDP
growth,
fiscal
and
trade
estimates
for
Algeria
and
the
GCC.
We
now
expect
a
23.8%
acceleration
in
GCC
nominal
GDP
in
2011
versus
17.8%
previously.
Saudi
Arabia,
Kuwait
and
the
UAE
are
set
to
see
the
greatest
rise
in
oil
revenue
and
real
oil
sector
growth,
with
the
largest
production
increase,
while
Qatar
should
benefit
from
oil-‐ linked
gas
prices.
Oil
prices
have
risen
faster
than
government
spending,
providing
a
comfortable
fiscal
position
even
in
the
event
of
another
oil
price
correction.
Rebounding
Sentiment
in
2Q2011:
Saudi
Arabia,
Qatar
and
the
UAE:
We
see
continued
expansionary
government
spending
into
the
medium
term
and
strengthening
private
confidence
as
the
main
economic
benefit
of
the
higher
oil
price.
There
are
already
signs
of
improved
sentiment
in
GCC
countries
with
stable
political
economies
–
Saudi
Arabia,
Qatar
and
the
UAE
–
in
2Q2011.
The
impact
of
higher
government
spending
is
visibly
boosting
private
consumption
in
Saudi
Arabia.
The
UAE
is
benefitting
as
the
external
recovery
feeds
into
the
domestic
environment.
Increasing
Pressure
on
Oil-‐Importing
Countries:
We
expect
that
the
higher
oil
price
will
pressure
fiscal
and
external
accounts
in
Jordan,
Lebanon
and
Morocco,
especially
with
populist
spending
also
rising.
We
continue
to
see
Egypt
as
a
net-‐hydrocarbon
exporter
despite
disruptions
to
gas
exports.
The
external
pressure
will
be
magnified
by
weaker
tourism
revenues
and
lower
capital
inflows,
including
FDI,
with
the
regional
political
developments.
We
do
not
expect
to
see
any
external
shocks,
with
countries
continuing
to
rely
on
their
FX
reserves.
Any
foreign
support
should
reduce
pressure
on
domestic
funding
sources,
including
the
banking
sector,
which
is
seeing
tightening
liquidity,
given
lower
capital
inflows.
Country
Focus:
Qatar
-‐
Strong
Top
Down
Story
Continues:
We
see
Qatar
continuing
to
have
one
of
the
strongest
medium-‐term
real
growth
outlooks,
led
by
government
spending.
We
make
some
upward
revisions
to
our
growth,
fiscal
and
trade
surplus
forecasts
on
the
back
of
higher
gas
revenue
with
the
increased
demand
for
gas
imports
by
Japan,
which
is
reducing
Qatar’s
spare
gas
capacity
and
rising
liberalised
gas
prices
in
Europe.
Meanwhile,
the
domestic
outlook
will
remain
robust,
with
Qatar’s
announced
strongly
expansionary
budget
for
FY2011-‐2012,
in
line
with
expectations.
The
five-‐year
development
plan
announced
in
March
also
points
to
a
continuation
of
strong
infrastructure
spending
in
the
medium
term.
Other
positive
developments
include
signs
of
deepening
monetary
management.
(Monica
Malik,
Mohamed
Abu
Basha,
Mohamed
Al
Hajj)
Oman
Telecommunications
Company
(Omantel)
-
Bearish
Operational
Outlook
Drives
Downgrade
-
Company
Note
-
22
May
2011
Downgrade
to
Neutral
and
Reduce
FV
by
13%
to
OMR1.222/share:
We
downgrade
Omantel’s
rating
to
Neutral
from
Buy,
as
our
new
13%-‐reduced
fair
value
(FV)
of
OMR1.222/share
offers
only
12%
upside
potential.
We
now
believe
that
it
is
unlikely
that
the
government
will
sell
a
stake
in
Omantel,
a
catalyst
we
were
expecting.
The
main
reasons
for
our
downgrade
are:
i)
lowering
and
delaying
our
estimated
increase
in
dividend
distribution
(our
FV
is
50%-‐weighted
on
a
DDM);
ii)
slashing
our
forecasts
across
our
forecast
horizon,
as
we
turn
bearish
on
Omantel’s
operational
outlook;
and
iii)
operational
concerns
about
the
troubled
Pakistani
unit,
WordCall.
Reduce
Forecasts
at
all
Operational
Levels
on
Tougher
Competition:
The
fixed-‐line
market,
already
suffering
from
fixed-‐to-‐mobile
substitution,
is
becoming
more
competitive
since
Nawras’s
entry,
in
addition
to
the
mobile
market.
We
expect
more
difficulties
for
Omantel
on
the
wholesale
level,
as
a
third
new
international
gateway
licence
has
been
awarded
to
Samatel,
while
Nawras
has
already
moved
to
its
own
gateway.
New
Cable
System
Supports
Top
Line,
Could
be
Non-‐Recurring:
Omantel’s
new
cable
system,
Europe
India
Gateway
(EIG),
has
provided
the
majority
of
top
line
growth
in
1Q2011,
as
it
has
boosted
wholesale
revenue
to
OMR24.9
million
(+60%
Q-‐o-‐Q),
and
has
accounted
for
8%
of
total
revenue
and
36%
of
wholesale
revenue.
We
do
not
account
for
the
cable
system
revenues
in
our
forecasts
on
the
absence
of
any
guidance
from
management.
(Omar
Maher,
Marise
Ananian)
[Note
–
EFG
Hermes
is
not
responsible
for
the
accuracy
of
news
items
taken
from
other
media.]
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Our
investment
recommendations
take
into
account
both
risk
and
expected
return.
We
base
our
fair
value
estimate
on
a
fundamental
analysis
of
the
company’s
future
prospects,
after
having
taken
perceived
risk
into
consideration.
We
have
conducted
extensive
research
to
arrive
at
our
investment
recommendations
and
fair
value
estimates
for
the
company
or
companies
mentioned
in
this
report.
Although
the
information
in
this
report
has
been
obtained
from
sources
that
EFG
Hermes
believes
to
be
reliable,
we
do
not
guarantee
its
accuracy,
and
such
information
may
be
condensed
or
incomplete.
Readers
should
understand
that
financial
projections,
fair
value
estimates
and
statements
regarding
future
prospects
may
not
be
realized.
All
opinions
and
estimates
included
in
this
report
constitute
our
judgment
as
of
this
date
and
are
subject
to
change
without
notice.
This
research
report
is
prepared
for
general
circulation
and
is
intended
for
general
information
purposes
only.
It
is
not
intended
as
an
offer
or
solicitation
with
respect
to
the
purchase
or
sale
of
any
security.
It
is
not
tailored
to
the
specific
investment
objectives,
financial
situation
or
needs
of
any
specific
person
that
may
receive
this
report.
We
strongly
advise
potential
investors
to
seek
financial
guidance
when
determining
whether
an
investment
is
appropriate
to
their
needs.
No
part
of
this
document
may
be
reproduced
without
the
written
permission
of
EFG
Hermes.
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Hermes
(main
office),
Building
No.
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Road,
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