Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
communications
LTE Summit, 18th May 2011
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
About Disruptive Analysis
Analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Founded by Dean Bubley
Blog at disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Twitter @disruptivedean & also on LinkedIn and Quora
Covering mobile VoIP since 2004, pico/femtocells since 2001
Regular focus on the links between innovative mobile network
technologies & the impact on devices and applications
Partnered with Telco 2.0, Diffraction Analysis & Martin Geddes Consulting
Coined the term “Happy Pipe” to describe profitable broadband strategies
Also “Tyranny of the SIM card”, “Mobile data offload” & “Under the floor player”
Recent reports on Mobile Broadband Traffic Management & RCS
Upcoming study on Telco-OTT services
Masterclasses on “Future of Voice”.
SF event June 30th, London event on July 14th
More users
Possibility to “distribute”
telephony via APIs &
embedded applications
New use cases?
Extra functionality & quality?
Presence is “sensuous”
More than on/offline
Includes context & emotion
Humans don’t
really interact with
each other in
“sessions”
…but sessions are easy to control & bill. The challenge is to package sessions
in a way to compete with more “natural” options that are emerging
Telephony
Telephony
30 Other
25 LTE phones
Most devices not for
3G phones
20 “primary voice”.
2G phones Scope for secondary
15 IP comms services
10 Full mobile
Most devices VoIP not
5 for “primary #1 priority
voice”
0 Still a lot of
2010 2020 CS mobile
voice
May 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
Will future operators all support voice? How?
Full IMS
+ VoLTE
Partial “Velcro”
IMS / GSM or
NGN CSFB or
VoIP VoLGA
Integrated
voice &
data
operators
Cloud Data
voice only &
(non- BYO-
2020 “Straw Man”
access) VoIP
1bn LTE handsets
Partner
Comms services ARPU $20 / mo Skype /
[but 50% carried on 2G/3G/WiFi] Google
$120bn revenue etc + need for continuity at LTE / 3G
= equivalent to 2010 SMS market / 2G /WiFi boundary
May 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
IMS: dead, but now nailed to the perch of LTE?
(With apologies to Monty Python)
3GPP LTE
& GSMA
Whole-
$
sale
But a risk of reversal – telcos paying
for Web QoS, APIs, data, content
Devel- IT And also “not as easy as it looks” to
Govern
opers shops achieve. Platforms, SLAs, IT, sales…
-ment
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com