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    FOUDRE SUR LES AEROPORT

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    90 vues41 pages

    Acrp-Protection Foudre Des Aeroports

    Transféré par

    colargol210
    FOUDRE SUR LES AEROPORT

    Droits d'auteur :

    © All Rights Reserved
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    AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM REPORT 8 Secs) Cece) EMEC Administration Lightning-Warning Systems for Use by Airports TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD OF IME NATIONAL ACADEMIES AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM ACRP REPORT 8 Lightning-Warning Systems for Use by Airports Lawrence Heitkemper Ronald F. Price MDA Feitat ING. Rachie, MID David B. Johnson [Namiont CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERE RESEARCH Boulder, CO Sues Area Aviation Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, 0. 2008 son TRB 01g THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine ‘The National Academy of Scienecs isa private, nonprofit, self perpetuating socicy of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific snd engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science andi technology snd to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal ieerone is president of theNational Acadeny of Sciences government on scientifie andl technical matters, Dr Ralph J ‘The National Academy of Enginesring vas established in 1964, under the charter ofthe National Academy of Sciences, a apaalel ‘organization of outstanding engineers. I is autonamous in its cdministration and inthe selection of its members, sharing wit the National Academy of Sciences the responsbiliy lor advising the federal government. The National Academy of Enginecring also sponsor engineering programs aimel at meeting national needs, eneuages edntion and estarch, and recoguizes the supeion achicvements of enginests. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Acacemy of Enginesring, ‘The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members cf appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. Vhe Institute act under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to lve an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education, Di. Harvey V. Finebetg is president of the Institute of Medicine ‘The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science anc! technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government, Fanctioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the pulnclpal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences anid the National Academy of Engineering in providing services (9 the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. ‘The Counsil is administered jointly by both the Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr, Ralph J, Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest ate chaie and vice cas, reapectively of the National Research Council, The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council, The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board isto provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and mukimodal, The Bowrd’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientist, anxl other transportation researchers and practitioners from the publicand private sectors and academia, all oj whom contribute their expertise in the public interest, The program is supported by state tanspoztation departments, federal ‘agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transporlation, and other orginizationsand individu als intersted in the development of transportation, www.TRB.org, www.national-academies.org FOREWORD By Charles W. Niessner suff once Trangportation Revearch Board ‘This report provides a quantitative means to asvess the operational benefits associated with delay reductions that lighining detection and warning systems can generate. The report will be of particular interes to airline and airpor personnel responsible for arcraftramp safety. Air carriers and airports are concemed with the potential hazards of lightning, Safety policies and practices require that ramp operations be discontinued when the potential for lightning exists, Ramp closures significantly affect al facets of aiport operations, including Jandside, terminal, and sitside operations, and the Natioral Airspace System. The severity of these effects could be reduced if current airport lightning-warning systerns were enbanced to more precisely identify the periods when ramp closures must be in effect. For example, this could be accomplished by integrating measurements from other weather- observing systems, such as radar, into the lightning-warning systems. Research is needed to determine appropriate methodologies and expected improvements in warning capability Under ACRP Project (4-02, “Lighining-Warning Systems for Use by Aizposts,” re- searchers at MDA Federal Inc, developed a quantitative means to assess the operational benefits associated with delay reductions that lightning detection and warning systems con generate. It enables an assessment of whether such systems are cost-beneficial on an indi- Vidual airport or airline basis. The researchers reviewed and evaluated existing/ developing technologies for the mea- surement and preciction oflightning hezards, conducted a survey of selected airports and. uirlines to identify capabilities and limitations, assessed users” satisfaction with existing, wamning systems, and performed a cost analysis of operational costs resulting from airport sramp/apron closures, The current state of ihe industry for airport lightning detection and ‘watning systems appeats to be effective. However, there are a number of ways to refine and improve the ystems by making better use of the currently available weather observations through the development of “smarter” software and énalysis algorithms. ‘These changes have the potential to fartherminimize the number: and duration of ramp closureeventa and enhance ramp worker safely decision making. CONTENTS 15 19 5 25 5 2 B 34 M 4 4 38 6 36 2 8 B 5 46 a 48 8 9 9 30 52 55 summary Chapter 1 Background Lightning Properties, Behavior, and "erminology Lightning Detection Technologies Review of Current Airport Lightning Detection ‘Technologies Lightning Prediction Technologies Chapter 2 Airport and Airline Surveys Introduction Survey Kesults Survey Observations Conclusions Chapter 3 Cost Analysis Tutroduction Airport Operations During Lightning Pvents Specific Impacts and Conte of Suspending Ramp Operations Approach to Cost Savings Analysis “Analysis of Costs Case tues Shorter Duration Events 30/15 Analysis Findings Chapter 4 Condusions Current Systema Smart Aigorithmeand Software Integrating Technologies for Improved Performance Predicting Lightning Hazards Making Use of Existing Data Integration Systems Additional Issues Looking Toward the Future Summary and Recommendations References Abbreviations Appendix A. Lightning Events Data Appendix B Glossary of Lightning Terms strikes (cloud-io-ground) throughout the United States. Most lightaing strikes occurin the ceastem and central regions of the country. Consequently, the decision to install lightning deiection and warning systems is dependent to 2 large extent on the potential for such events and their impact on airport and airline operations. Airports located along the west coast of the United States, for example, frequently question the cost of installing, operst- ing, and maintaining lightning detection systems. Conversely, several relatively closely spaced airports in Florida each have their own lighining detection and warning systemsin place. The key objective and impetus for the installation of lightning detection and warning systerns is worker safety. A secondary and near equivalent bass forthe investment in these systems s the minimization of ramp closures during such events. In this latter regacd, it was determined that the usets of these systems employ differing standards with respect to broad- ‘casting a “clear the ramp” or “retura to ramp activity” message, ‘The industry has focused ‘on distance out and time since last event to establish bases that, respectively, govern stop- ping and resuming ramp activities, However, the distancesand time ntervalsemployed vary depending en the risk tolerance ofthe decision maker, whichis generally influenced by past experience at the airport location, including weather characteristics and frontal passage speeds. iting the usefulness and standardization of lightning detection and warning systems is liability. Someairport operators share information thal they obtain con- ceming lightning and othe adverse weather phenomena with airlines and other tenants, while others have expressly avoided this level of cooperation. Those that disseminate infor- Imation do s0 in one of several ways. Airports may allow tenants to subscribe to a data feed ‘generated by their lightning detection and warning systems. Those tenants then employ their individual criteria for rarap closure and re-opening. Other aisports broadcast a visual display—for example flashing lights that are visible from all areas ofthe aitline ramp—to ‘warn personnel ofa lightning threat. Again, the response from these workersis governed by their specific work rules and procedures. Altemnativdy, airports may ako opt not ta divulge weather data out of concern that they may overlooka tenant and be held liable in the event of injury or loss of life. Individual airlines and airport tenants that have invested resources in their own weather ‘monitoring technologies, including lightning detection and warning systems, use the data collected for their own decision making, In practice, the dominant airkne at the airport ‘where the threst of lightning events warrants the implementation of such systems typically sets the lead that other airlines may choose to follow, Ramp workers monitor the actions of thelr colleagues at other airlines, and they typically vacate and return to the ramp in unison, This practice can extend to airport employee decisions to stop and resume ouidoor work ac- Livities. There can be instances when such “follow the leader” tactics are not observed, such as when relatively large distances separate airline ramp operationsareas,and one airlinecon~ Linues to operate while others have suspended ramp activity, creating asituation that can be confusing to passeagers of those silines. One airline, Southwest Ainfines, has adopted special practices at certain airponts to deplane passengers when the aireraft arrives at the gate anda ramp work shutdown isin effect due to lightning. The aizeraft is marshaled to the passenger loading bridge position by the ramp supervisor, who is positioned in a vehicle with lights that indicate lel/right of thelead-in centerline to the pilot during the taxi-in activity. Psssengersare thus not exposed to the lightning threat and are allowed to deplane. Baggage handling activities are not Table S-1. Standard economic values. Tem ‘Vatue @) ‘Value of Haman Lite 30 millon Average Lato Cot Ran Rate 1303 | Houny Con of Ret Dey Taira ean of Dely Por Aira Go oa) 200th Bons cosets Valo for Fh vee and gay Drs A Ga Pas, go07i27) A series of equations were modeled to quantify the “per minute" cost savings that could accrue through the use of improved decision making with respect ta the timing of ramp closures and re-openings. These equations were applied to the synthesized lightning and aircraft activity levels at Chicago O' Hare International and Orlando Intemational airports due toa shortening of the duration of each ramp closure event by 10 minutes. The savings represent those for a yearly period of activity and refect the number oflightning events and aircralt delay statistics, As indicated in Table $-2, the potential savings ftom a ten-minute improvement in delay time during peak operating hours at Orlando is approximately $28 million, compared to the $6.2 million calculated for Chicago. To evaluate the sensitivity of the predicted economic impact on the interval between the las lightning strike and a return to normal operations, an additional set of analyses reduc- ingthe “all cleat” time from 30 min to 15 min after the ast reported lightning strike within 6 mi of the airportwes conducted, The reduced time interval may be more common at air- ports than the “standard” 30 min used for general outdoor activities. This “30/15” analysis was conducted for the summer months (June-August), when lightning activity is the mst frequent, “The rule change from 30/30 to 30/15 results in a slight increase in the number of events due to the few cases when the irport would be opened and then quickly closed again under the 30/15 rule (causing two events instead of one to be recorded), while the airport would have stayed closed under the 30/30 rule, While this could represent an increased hezard for ramp personnel, it results in a significant reduction in delay time, totaling 354 minutes at Chicago and 1,968 minutesat Orlando, ‘The results for Chicago indicate a potential savings of epproximately $3.4 million from hypothetical implementation of the 30/15 rule for the summer. The results for Orlando ate perhaps more intriguing because the shorter “all-clear” time provides limited openings in the ramp closures and reduces the number of longer and more cosily delays. In this Table $-2. Lightning events, delay minutes, and savings. ‘ining Asoclated ‘rth 1m Lightning Events Reduction in mp Alepert ‘ao. ‘Closure Tterval ® Thiago Rw Intemational st 68 6206310 4. Conduct research to enable the improved determination of these lightning events that ote mest likely to produce short-term (less than 1 min) impacts on earap activity. Thie may include lightning cell tracking and echo movement vecior anslyss that can serve to minimize the number and duration of ramp closures. 5. Devise a system of collecting and reporting lightning events and their impact on aircraft ramp and outdoor activities ‘This will provide additional data to determine the extent of, such weather impacts on airctaft operations and identify these improvements that are cost-beneficial 6. [Develop training programs for the use and application of lightaing detection and warning systems that improve the ramp closure/re-open decision-making process. ALTITUDE (kn) Figure 1. A simple conceptual model of the main global circuit. Thunderstorm “generators” drive current to the highly conductive electrosphere and back to the ground through the fair weather current (2). cloudsmay, however, triggeran clectrical discharge, Depend \son their history, these clouds may have moderate electrical fields asa result of earlier convective activity or rom dleciri- cation associated with the mieltingof precipitation, In-flight lightning strikes are relatively frequent (averaging sbout une sike for every 3000 bir of flight), but they seldom do much damage since aircraft ace gencrally wellshiclcled against ight- sing by their metal airframes (12). Thunderstorm Electrification and Lightning While small and mid-sized convective clouds may become slectred, they seldom produce nalucal lightning. Lightning requires a tremendous amount of charge separation before a discharge, and this generally happens only inthe large con- vective storms we call thunderstorms. While there are till many anknovin factors in the initiation of a lightning strike, years of studies have mad it clear that the process involves ‘collisions between super-cooled water and ice (ineluding {graupel and small hail) in the presence of strong uparafts and downdrafis, Most often, cloud tops have to coo! to at least -20 °C before lightning begins, with the critical charge separation processes oectrring in the portion of the clouds wth temperatures between —3 °C and—20°C (24°10 -5 "1. Particle collisions, combined with size sorting and strong, updails end downdraft, separate the positive and negative charges. The descending particles tend to collect negative charges, and the ascending particles ae predominately posi tively charged. The idealized result of these interactions is a simple cloud dipole, with positive charges grouped at the top. and negative charges grouped in the middle and lower areas of the coud, in the -5 °C to ~20°C vane (see Figure 2) In addition 10 the charge separation within the cloud, the lower areaof strong negative charges Induces a compensating area ofpositive charge 1o form immediately below the eloud con the carth’s susface, Eventually, when the charges build up to ahigh enoughevel to catse an electrical breakilown in the sir seporating the charge centers, hebult-up chargescan dis- charge in « lightning stroke, This can cither happen between the cloud and the ground, or between the postive and acys- tive charge centers within the cloud, The majority of natural Figure 2. An idealized smal! thunderstorm with charges separated into a simple electrical dipole (5). 10 ‘The initial lightning strike: Stepped leaders, streamers, retum strokes, and darts. ne dren hy mcral Seen eae SSrade fouve Clams, wana poaie creme Feiler, hes Sette ea oy ihr ore acest ah ees te on. ‘Wen nese a eames cones ey prota» Rey nee dr Tor charge toner teen te not ube ‘Boneie chanel rhe caudate gc sag ei rai ne du, ot ae Extrait i adnens en aces a Seas Figure 3. Anatomy of a lightning strike (5). 12 ‘DSCHARGE WITHIN CLOUDBE NERY ea TRACLOUD) DISCHARGE BETWEEN MEGATIVEAND PORTINE GU iGkTNING BETWEEN GROUND AND} aw tte SSS TS EES rs Figure 5. Multiple clouds with complex charge distributions. This figure iMlustrates the typical cloud-to-ground lightaing flashes, as well as discharges between different portions of a single cloud and discharges between adjacent clouds (8). 66 Flash Cloud Fish nolo fone sens wpa sen afore — vem FO Sea Lr roo ee (5 sezond Figure 6. CG andl IC flash emissions in various frequency ranges. VHF emissions are generally limited to line of sight propagation (200-300 km, or 125-185 mi, while LF emissions propagate by ground waves that can follow the curvature of the earth and can be detected to ranges of 300-600 km, or 185-375 miles. VLF emissions can be reflected off the fonosphere and can be detected for thousands of kilometers, but in variably decreasing efficiencies (4). “4 associated with the eletrieal discharge (see Figore 6), Light- ning strokes produce RF static (mestly in the MP band) and are familiar to listeners of AM radios. CU strokes generate strongsignals in the LE band, whieh can be detected at ranges of many hundreds of Kilometees, IC strokes, on the other hand, predominately generate VHF line-of-sight emissions Lightning detectors based on RF electromagntelic emissions range from relatively simple, low-cost, hancheld devices to sophisiiested sensors an groups of sensors organized into detection networks. Low-end systems, however, ae of uncer- tain sensitivity and are subject to false detections. ‘They are most commonly marketed for hikers, sports activities, and outdoor gatherings. The most basic systems do not try to sdentify the direction ofthe lightning, but may try to produce 4 rough estimate of the lightning distance by measuring the amplitude of the signal. “This technology can be enhanced by using more sophisti- cated receivers that can monitor the sigral at multiple fe quencies and analyze the time evolution and properties of the signal to minimize fal alarms. Analysis of the inccming signal canalso be used to distingnish between CG flashes and discharges from an IC stroke. ‘With the addition of orthogonally crossed loop antennas or other radio direction finding technologies (the SAFR lightning detection systems developed in France, for example, use VEF interferometic dipole antennas for dizection find ing), itis also possible to determine the direction from the detector to the source ofthe lightning signal, Used individu- ally, high-end receivers ofthis sort are employed to identify the direction of nearby lightning strikes and, with a simple signal amplitude algorithm, to also estimate the range. Such, sentorsare often included in automatic weather stations de signed to produce ally automatic METAR reports (aviation routine weather reports) summarizing thecurrent weatherat an airport. For this application, the lightning detection 5 tems used as an indicator of the nearby presence ofa thun- erstonmn anid gives an approximate incication ofthe storm's posttion and distance relative to the airport. Lightning Detection by Networks of Electromagnetic Sensors Networks of sophististed electomagnedle sensors can provide very accurate position information for CG lightning strokes.'The most immediately obvious approach is through triangulation of the ditection information obtained by two ‘oF more sensors, Since the strong LP and VLE signals from ground lightning tend 10 follow the surface of the earth and. are detectable at ranges of many hundevds of kilemcters, itis possible toconstruct a network to cover very large area with, areasonable number of detectore—something on the order of slightly over 100 sensors for CONUS. With this density of seceivers, most lightning strokes can be detected by thice 10 four diferentsens Scusor networks can also locate the position of a lightning strike by making use of the high-accuracy time references provided by global p system (GPS) satellites to determine the difference in time between two or more de tectors' observations of the same lightning stake, Using sophisticated algorithms, the differences in the “time of ar rival” of the sign can be uscd to identify the location and time of the ligntningstrike. Depending on the position ofthe lightning strike and the position andepscing ofthe detectors, time ofarrival solutions can require as many as threeor more detectors to recon the signal from the sume lightning stroke Using sensitive reeeivers designed to minimize false detec- tions, lightning detection networks have been shown to be capable of detecting clouc-to- ground lightning strokes with a detection efficiency of over 30% and position accuracy of significantly better than 1 km (0,625 mi). Two such networks, rnin by commercial companies, currently provide lightning information for CONUS. Ground-based lightning detection networks are primarily designe: {o detec: CG lightning and can provide information about each individual stroke within a lightning flash. With recent improvements to these same detectors they can now de- tect significant percentageof the nearby ICligntningstrokes, but at 2 variable and as yet not well characterized detection eificency that depends on the propertiesof thestrake and the distance from the network sensors. Since the IC lightning sirokes are frequently horizontal and extend for great dis tances itisharder to assign single pesition to each stroke. CG flashes also extend over long distances inside the cloud, while the ground strike positions are normally well defined. Since there are significantly more cloud lightning sirikes than ground sirikes, and since within-cloud lightningis normally observed preceding the first ground strokes, Cou lightning detection systems that are optimized for VHF emissions havea great po- (ential for enhancingour current detection capabilities. These systemswill, however, require a signiicantly higher density of slations to provide uniform, high-detection-eciency cover- age for future applications, At present, there are a number of regional “totallightning” detection systems thatare being used for research and for the testingoFfatureapplistion products Lightning Detection from Space Space-borne sensors can also be usedl to detect lighting. while ‘emissions from the lightaing flash, th: mnost promising space borne approach is based on optical detection of the lightaing strikes, Optical detectors, normally filtered to lock at a strong ‘oygen emission band in the near infeared (IR) ard analyzed sme satelite-based seasors can detect the electrical 16 One A Bott from the Biuet Racer Rottectivly & MAL iolira Track Figure 9. Two illustrations of lightning strikes that develop within a convective storm, but exit the side of the storm and strike the ground relatively far from the visible edge of the storm. These two illustrations are from different storms, but show a strikingly similar pattern. The picture on the teft was taken by Al Moller. The iitustration on the right, provided by Bill Rison from the New Mexico institute for Mining and Technology, is a vertical cross-section of a storm, as seen by a research radar, overiaid with a full depiction of a lightning stroke based on a specialized lightning mapping system capable of detecting each stop in the Igbtning stroke. inthis care, the lightning strikes the ground about 5 km (3 mi) from the edge of the radar echo. under $1(0) and only detect the RF static discharges of a nearby lightning strike. While the systems may nat be uni- formly sensitive in all directions, they have no way to detect or indicate the dicection ofthe lightning strike. "They do, how- ver, generally ty togive some indication of the relative range ofthe arte, based on the amplitude ofthe RF signal. These systems often monitor the amplituce of the lightning signals overtime and indicate whether the lightning getting doser or farther away, based on the trend in the signal amplitude. “This is not a particularly accuate way to estimate range, snaking the devices mostly usefu.asan “objective” detection system that might be carried by individual workers or used at 4 small alzport to help them notice or evaluate a potential lightning Yazard ‘In general, hese systems are not appropriate for workersat large aicports or [or airpoxt operations managers Spetficproductsin this category indude + StrikeAlert (www steikealert.com), + SkyScan (wwweskyscanusa.com/main.him), and + ‘VhundeeBelt (www.apectrumthunderbolt.com), Directional Detectors Based on RF Emissions ‘These systems are a step up fom the handheld er portable systems discussed earlier. The systems add a fixe auateana (o identify the direction to the detected lightning strike "The distance to the lightning sue, howeve, ie still estimated feom the sinplitade ofthe lightring signal. Prod- wks in this category can range from fairly basic systems using personel computers, which are primarily targeted at meteorological hobbyists or commercial users secking a genezal awerenesseFacarbylightningactvty to sophisticated systems engineered for specific aizport applications (for cxample, sulomatic thunderstorm detection for METAR reports. ‘Assingle sensor detection systems, these systems ave some ‘what limited for epplications that requice high-accuracy de- tection and tracking of lightning strikes in the operational facility, such as airport ramp opevations. ‘These systems can be quite useful, but they should not be used for applications for which they were not intended, ieinity of aa 18 ‘toward applications suchas rump operations, with the intent of providinga focused product that meets the specific user's ‘needle. The moregeneral integrated displays, on the otherhanc, are normally directed toward a broader audience, including tasers such as airline managers and dispatchers that nocd to ‘monitor both flight and ramp operations. Ideally, an inte- grated product should provide separate displays or tools to switch focus hetween different, independently optimized views of the available data, Versatile systems, optimized for meteo- rologists, re often too complicated for focused applications such as ramp operations. ‘TheVaisala thunderstorm warning systems based on real- time lightning observations provided by Vaisala’sNLDN. ‘the system can optionally be sugmented by the addition oftupto seven slectric field mills. The warning system provides an extensive st of custom displays showing the location ofight- ning strikes and generating specificalest and alarm messages. ‘The warning system can be customized by visual and audible hae m alarms and electionic notification, The most recent software ‘upgrade supportsan walianited number of creas ox polygon iacustomized by svaraing aes, with the alert and alarm ei the user (se Figure 10). The current version ofthe Vaisala lightning warning sytem isthe TW3300, which vas released in 2007 (wwoesvaisla com! wealher/productflightaing/). Earlier versions ofthe Vaisala system wore distributed asthe Preciioa Lightning Waening System (PLWS), which was eased in 1995, andthe TWX1200, ‘hich war made available in 2004, All of these versions af the Vaisala system are curventl in use ata variety of airports ARINC isa licensed installer and value-added reseller of Vaislalightningequipment andcan provide customized in- stallations with external alarms (horns and beacons) and a variety of different options for communication Tinks (ww. ainc.comfpraductsfweather/forewarn/index.htm)). ARINC's ForeWarn precision lightning system is based on Vaisala's ‘Thunderstorm Warning System software, with user options Figure 10. A captured image of the main display screen of the Vaisala TWX300 lightning warning system (with annotations added). The age of the displayed lightning strokes is indicated by their cofor, while the bottom pane! summarizes the current alarm end alert status. As the storm approaches the airport, the display can be zoomed in for a closer, higher resolution view (igure courtesy of Vaisala). 20 Figure 12. Detail of a screen image from the WSI Fusion Display, showing a combination of aircraft track, flight plans, and rader imagery (in shades of green) as a background for CG lightning strikes that ere color-coded, with the most recent strikes plotted a5 white “plus” signs (figure courtesy of WS1). sirikes after they occur. Prediction systems, on the other hand, provide warnings thal a lightning strike is likely to ‘occur, Most of the time thcreis not much of a difference be ween the two approaches Ifan active thunderstorm moves towards an airport lightning detection technology will con- tinually monitor the locations of the GG lighting strikes When the activity reaches a specified distance from the air- port the system will generate an eler! or warning—essentially prediction, based on the proximity ofhelightning, that the corm presents an immine ‘eases, however, a lightning storm may develop dieectly over an airport,and the very first strikes can put sitport workers al risk. In this case, a prediction system may be able to pro videa uniquely valuable warning, Eventhebert predictions only givea generalindication that a lightning strike is likely t occur in the immediate vicinity. threst end havard, In some The timingand path ofan individuallightning stroke are, for all practical purposes, unpredictable, “There are two distincly different approaches to predicting, lightaing hazards, The first, bascd on monitoring the buildu of the atmospheric electric field in response (o nearby charged clouds, represents a true prediction. Electie eld measure- ‘ments will not, however, necessarily predict all nearby Vight- ning strikes, and they can be expected to produce occasional false alarms (29, 20). The ether approach to lightning prediction isto monitor the growth and movement of the systems that develop inta thunderstorms using techniques that have been developed for short-term weather forecasts (“noweasting”), using, general storm properties that can he monitored by radats or satellites a¢a proxy for lightning activity. This approach can provide significantly longer advance warnings of pos- 2 [asa emia arenes | Rea] | nf ses | og iz ol af i a i {oO[a\s > || Lightning Atort (oni 20 aot mia) SERB Figure 14, A scroon image of the main ITWS weather display, including a simple lightning alert button. the evolution of an intensely studied, microburst-producing thunderstorm, The bottom two panels show vertical profiles of the time evolution of the stomm radar reflectivity and uupdrait strength, while the top panel shows the IG and CG lightning activity. ‘In this storm, the initial mid-level strengthening of the radar echo preceded an intensive growth period, with the highest Lightning flash rates well correlated with the period of the meximum updrafs. This storm's rato of 1Cto CG light ining sc kes was ursully hig, but follows the normal pattern of IC lighting developing several minutesbefore the frst CG stroke. Stom studies such as shown in Higuse 15 indicate that lightning dats, particulary IC lightning date, are a valuable indicator of the updraft sizength and can play an important role inshort-term prediction ofstormbchavior. the same time, observations of storm strength and evolution can be used asanapproximate indicator oflighting activity. In cecent years, there havebeen anumber ofignificantadvancesin the short-term forecasting of thunderstorm activity, including pre- dictingareas of new growth and explosive development (22). Using standard meteorological data sets, incinding outputtrom ‘numerical models, radar, and satelite observations, storm nowiasting has proved (bea valuable Cool for understand- ing and predicting storm behavior and evotution. Given the importance of timely predictions of hazardous weather, itis natural that siorm forecasters are now beginning to generate short-term, high-resolution lightning forecasts (23). Figure 16 shows a graphical cepiction of the results of lightning prediction algorithm included in WDT's Lightning Decision Suppoxt System (LDSS}. This algorithn combines real-time lightning observations with storm-cell motion tracks to identify separate moderate and high threat arcas| out to 30 min in advance. A similar system, whieh combines ‘rader aad lightning observations to provide lightning warn ings for a variety of public service applications, including, sirport ground operations, inewrrently under development in Australia (24), 24 Figure 16. An example of the WOT lightning prediction algorithm running within the WDT LDS. The algorithm is based on the current lightning observations, coupled With the expected evolution of the storm, as reflected by its radar signature and indicates the location and magnitude of the expected tightning threat 30 min into the future (figure courtesy of WOT). 26 Dallas-Ft. Worth international Airport (DFW) No airport-owned or provided equipment. Users rely on self-installed equipment. Denver international Airport (DEN) No aitport-owned! or provided equipment. Users rely on self installed equipment Orlando international Airport (MCO) ‘Vaisala TWX1200 with NILDN feed and two EMS. This ss tem is referred to locally as “ForeWarn I," which i the brand ame ased by ARINC when it sells and installs the Vaisala product. MCO is planningto adda third EFMand wee its local area network to transmit alarms to remote alarm display (RAD) unit, Phoenix-Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX) Vaisala TWX300 with NLDN feed aad twe EFMs. Pittsburgh international Airport (PIT) Vaisila PLWS with NLDN feed and two EEMs, System to be upgraded to TWX300, Tampa International Airport (IPA) Vaisala PLWS with NLDN feed and twa EEMs, System to be upgraded to TWX300. American Airlines—DFW Only Vaisala tWX200 with NLDN and two EFMs, Northwest Airlines—Systemwide (eight airports) DtN/Meteorologix Aviation WX Seatry and one ERM. United Airtines—ORD Only ‘Vaisala TW31200 with NLDN feed and two EFMSs, System (o be upgraded to Vaisela TWX300. United Parcel Servica—Louisville, KY, Only UPS has operations at about 10) aixports. Two ainports (ovain Hubs) —at Rockford, IL, aud Louisville, KY—have their ‘own lightning detection systems. Approximately 12 aisports, have lighting information provided by the airport authority or other aidlines. At Louisville, UPS utilizes the WSE Weather Workstation, which provides weather radar observetions, weather maps and forecasts, and NLDN real-time cloud-to-ground light ing observations that are monitored 24/7 at the samp operations center. The system automatically yencrates pre-alert, fuel ban alert, and operations elert at the center with visual eves when lightning is detected within the pre- defined ranges, UPSis considering switching to the TOA Systom'a USPLN in the expectation offaster throughput of observations, lover ible improved warnings through the USPLN's ports of within-cloud lightning strikes, in addition to cloud- tn.geound strikes costs, and po: Complementary Weather Data Support Systems Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) Weather radar feed, Chicago-0'Hare International Airport (ORD) Uses outside contractor and media reports. Has access t0 weather radar feed. Dallas-Ft. Worth International Airport (DFW) Utilizes an outside contractor for weather forecasts and sarnings, Denver International Airport (DEN) “Borrows” observations taken by a weather observer stationed in the Ramp B tower and retained by another party. Also subscribes to the Weather Support for Deicing Decision-Making (WSSDM) provided by Vaisala in con- junction with the National Genter for Atmospheric Re- search (NCAR), ‘The WSSDM system includes lightning. observations from the NLDN, but the lightning data path Is not secure and is not intended for lightning safety applications. Orlando International Airport (MCO) No airport-owned or provided equipment, Users rely on self-installed equipment, Phoenix-Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX) No aitport-owned or pra self installed equipment, | am aa catnnonin [vais | 7 | soe | vom | enonaae > Homin a a ac Toa [ae [iest] 97 [sa zanen "Weighed wer even afewminutes would ikely be sufficient tomore than cover the cos of introducing improved technology or practices. As a general guideline, the costs of direct lightning dura- tion delays at any given airport may be approximated by the following equation: TALAC=NBAD * NRPP* ORRW TAD + VPT * NOPID* TAD where TALAC= total annval local aixport cost, NPAD~ sumber of planes affected during adelay, NEPP= umber of ramp workers per plane, ORRW= overtime rate of ramp work, TAD = otal annual delay minutes for delays over 60 min (medium: and long-term delays), ‘alevltal wit Tal Saving ive by Tort Ching, ver ool lve of passenger time, and yumber of passengers per plane incurring del, ‘When compared against the potential costof implement: Ing improved ligatning monitoringand forecastingsystems, the analysis indicates thet the annual value of new tech nologies or procedures for reducing ramp lightning delays, although varying by arport, could be substantial, The po- ‘ential savings produced by a reduction of even afew minutes would likely be sufficient to more than cover the cost of introducing the improved technology or procedures. Because safely of the ramp workers is the paramount con «ern, it appears the airlines will Iikely ert on the side of eau tion in closing ramp operations. This suggests that the mest likely path to improved operational efficiency is in being able cleat” as quickly as possible after the initial event, o longasit can he dane without compromising safety to sound an " 46 rarnp closures than ean large aiports.'This meaas that when lightning is near, they may he able to wail abitlonger to declare an “ll clear” than major aigports with higher traffic volumes and tighter schedules. Safety issues become more critical and require doser, more expen sive, monitoring ofthesituation when airport users aretrying to push the envelope and keep operations going as long as possible without interruption ‘Warnings based on NEDN monitoring the approach of active thunderstorms can identify perhaps 91% of the light- ning events thataffect an airport, with the remainder coming from rewstorms that develop inthe immediate vicinity of the airport (28) To respond to this developing storms hazard, high-end lightning detection systems typically augment the NIDN observations with locally installed E¥Ms, whieh can detectthebuildup of the loca electric field that normally pre- codes lightning, EFMS co, however, addsignificantly o the costofa warning system, An EFM can cost as much as $16,000, and they would need to be installed at several locations arourd the sirport to provide a useful indication of the developing potential for lightning strikes. Fach EFM would requireits owa set of com- munication cables and regular maintenance to ensure reliable performance, While EFMs are routinely used at lightning. sensitive locations, such as the Kennedy Space Center in Florida and weapons testing site, because they can provide carly warning of developing storms, they are subject to false alarmssince notall developing storms actually produce light ning. In most cases, the buildup of the electric field should be considered a necessary, but not sufficient, criterion for lightning activity (29). From an airport operational perspective, the most impor- ‘ant improvements that could be made in current lightning Aetection and warning systems would be to develop more precise and hetter defined warnings that sill give operators time to effectively clear the ramp and suspend operations, and then get back to work as quickly as pessible with less downtime, bat without compromising safety. ‘here ate a number of promising ways to refine and im. prove lightning detection and waraing systems for airports by making better use ofall he currently available weather observations, though the clevelopment of smarter software and analysis elgorithms, and by incorporating new technolo gies These options are highlighted in dhe followingsections. ut down earlice and Smart Algorithms and Software ‘The performance of any lightaing warning system is criti «ally dependent on the specific warning exiteria that are used to stopwerk and clear the ramp, as well athe guidelines that are subsequently used lo decide when to restume work. These criteriaaffecthoth safety and efficiency. Conservative eriteria may enhaneesafety but at thecest ofeacessive downtime, On the other hand, standards designed to minimize discuptions ‘may put airport workers at risk. System providers will nor- imal recommend an initial set of warningerteri, but allow "users to set their own criteria for alerts and warnings based on their collective experience with typical weather patterns at their airport. Asa practical matter, this means that the spe- cific warning criteria used at different airports can vary rectly. One approach to improving this situation and helping, individual ainports and airlines refine their warning exiteria would be to male use of intelligent, self monitoring warning, systems. A lightning detection and waraing system with this sortof capability would be able to monitor itsown perform- ince and evaluate the adequacy ofthe specific warning criteria being used, Any unanticipated lightning strikes in the imme- diate vicinity ofthe airport, or strikes that follow the declars- tion of an alert too closely for the ramp tobe cleared, would be evaluated to see if ressonable changes to the wamning criteria would have provided a better waming. Such 2 sys tem could also keep track of excessive warnings or lengthy samp closures and evaluate to what extent safety would have ‘een compromised with slightly more relaxed criteria. The system would be, in effect, selF-traning and would provide an “objective epproach for making gradual adjustments to the specific warning criteria used ai an airport in response 10 the actual lightning evenis i experiences over time, This approach could also he used to refine warning criteria ‘0 reflect the local storm climatology, and permit seasonable adjustments to optimize performance. or example, consider an airport with alightning warning system that recomments that outdoor operationsbe stopped whenever a lightning strike is detected within 6 mi of the airportand declares an “all clear” when there have been no aullitionallightning strces within ths distance for 15 min. AS a routine matter, the lightaing system could be designed 10 keep trackof the number of recommendedalerts and alzrms, the duration of the work stoppages, the number of lightning ikes over the immediate airport area (or other designated “area of concern’), and related statistics. Lightning strikes in the area of coneetn without aclequate prior warning would be of particular importance and would be identified and recorded, In parallel with the statistics for the operational se of warningcritera, system software could also generate com- parable statistics for other possible exmmbinations of warning, triteria, For example, therecould be separate statistits gener ‘ated for all distance thresholds from 3 mi to 10 mi, and for “all cleer” times from § min to 30 min. These statistics would be collected and reviewed, perhaps once a yoar, identifying, possible changes to the warning criteria that could improve sixport efficiency, while preserving safety. Any changes of thie. sort would need to be done geudually and incrementally, but 48 endangers aigpoet workers, they only represcnt a sal feac- tion of the {otal lightning in a storm. The majority of the lightning discharges stay within the cloud or stike adjacent loudsand are generally described as ICstrikes. Measurement systems that can detect and locate botk CG and IC lightning sce termed total lightning systems. CGlightning strikes srepredominantly vertically orientated and can be associated with a single geographical postion, cessentiilly their impact point. IC lightning, on the other hand, often extends in complicated patterns over long hoi~ zontal distances. ‘The most sophisticated total lightning, detection systems can track the full path of an IC stroke and, ng the tracks ofscveral successive strokes, can pro- mensional coverage plots. ecausc there aremany more IC lightning strokes than CG strokes, and since their positions can be mapped in a two-dimensional grid, they provide a valuable description of the overall extent of active lightning in a cloud system. ‘Vota lightning patterns can bie monitored and tracked with more precision than can be done with CG strokes alone, and since IC strokes are pener- ally obierved several minutes before the first CG strokes they may beable to be used to identify potential hazards in storms that are developing overhead before the fist CG stroke is observed. Total lightning systems require special VHF sensors to track the [Cstrokes and are currently only avalable avera few regional areas where they arc being tested. Because the [C lightning patterns identify areas that have already developed active charge separation processes and are actively prodacing lightning strikes, they represent a uniquely valuable enbance- ment to operational lightning warning systems. Integrated systems based on total lightning detection networks may be able to provide significentiy improved lightning wamings, in terms of a beiter delineated hazard area and a reduction in total downtime for airport operations. While itis not yet clear to what extent total lighting ystems will become available, or who wil install, operate, and fund. their operation, they may eventually provide significant im- provements for lightning detection and warning systems, as, vellas enbancing short-term weather forecasts for the entire terminl area Predicting Lightning Hazards Mesoscale “noweasting” systems are quite elfectiveatidea- tifying the growth and motion of developing convective sys- {cms and are used by the FAA for both terminal and en coute air trafic management, These forcessting systems ean also be used to identily developing storms that are likely to produce lightning. Airline operations are time-sensitive and have a very low tolerance for false alarms. Mott lightning prediction products Stould therefore only be used to generate “advisory” products that call atention to the potential for storm development. “ueads-up” andnosinitsell c systems may be valuable Such an advisory would serve asa: call fora “stand down.” Predict {or operational phining, bat are notlikely o replaceor

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