Global Warming

The relationship between humans and the state of the ecosystem is not only
dependent upon how many people there are, but also upon what they do. When there
were few people, the dominant factors controlling ecosystem state were the
natural ones that have operated for millions of years. The human population has
now grown so large that there are concerns that they have become a significant
element in ecosystem dynamics. One of these concerns is the relationship between
human activities and climate, particularly the recent observations and the
predictions of global warming, beginning with the alarm sounded by W. Broecker
(1975).

The relationships among humans, their activities and global temperature can be
assessed by making the appropriate measurements and analyzing the data in a way
that shows the connections and their magnitudes. Human population can be closely
estimated and the consequences of their activities can be measured. For example,
the volume of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions is an
indicator of human's energy and resource consumption. An examination of
population size, atmospheric concentrations of these gases and global
temperature relative to time and with respect to each other is presented here to
demonstrate the relations among these factors.

POPULATION GROWTH

Many of us have seen linear graphs of human population showing the enormous
growth in the last two centuries. However, significant changes in population
dynamics are lost in the exponential growth and long time scales. If the data
are replotted on a log-population by log-time scale, significant population
dynamics emerge. First, it is apparent that population growth has occurred in
three surges and second, that the time between surges has dramatically shortened
(Deevey, 1960).

Figure 1. Population (Log-population verses log-time since 1 million

years ago). Time values on x-axis, ignoring minus sign, are powers of 10 years
before and after 1975 (at 0). Vertical dashed-line at 1995. Filled circles for
known values are to left of 1995 and open circles on and to right of 1995 are
for projected values. (Data updated from Deevey, 1960). ----------

Deevey's 1960 graph has been brought up to date in Figure 1 to reflect what has
been learned since then. The data have been plotted relative to 1975 with
negative values before 1975 and positive values thereafter. The reason for this
will become clear below. The values of the time scale, ignoring the minus signs,
represent powers of 10 years.

It has been argued that a population crash occurred about 65,000 years ago (-4.8,
Fig. 1), presumably due to the prolonged ice-ages during the preceding 120,000
years (Gibbons, 1993). Humans came close to perishing and Neanderthal became
extinct. However, by 50,000 years ago (-4.6, Fig. 1), humans had generated
population mini-explosions all around the planet. Deevey's data for population
size since 500 years ago have been replaced with more recent estimates taken
from The World Almanac, (1992 - 1995) including population projections out to
2025. A vertical dashed-line has been placed at 1995. Filled symbols for the
known values are to the left of it and open symbols on and to the right of it
are for values projected into the short-term future.

The first surge coincides with the beginning of the cultural revolution about
600,000 years ago, interrupted by the population crash 65,000 years ago.
Population size rebounded 50,000 years ago and then growth slowed considerably.
The second surge began with the agricultural revolution about 10,000 years ago
and was followed by slow growth. Deevey argued that moving down the food chain
was the underlying cause of this large and rapid spurt. The timing of the
present surge matches the rise of the industrial-medical revolution 200 years
ago.

A relation between innovation and population growth is embedded in the log-log

plot. There was rapid growth at the start of each surge. Then, growth rate
slowed as people adapted to the precipitating innovations. Each surge increased
the population more than 10-fold. It appears that we are nearing the end of the
present surge as recent growth rates have declined. After the initial spurt,
subsequent innovations did not perpetuate growth rates. The only significant
innovations were those that produced the next surge. However, accumulated
innovations during the surges may have played a role in the eventual decline in
population growth rates. Starting with high birth and death rates, death rate
declines and longevity increases, but birth rates stay high. Some time later,
birth rates decline so that eventually, net births minus deaths produces slow
growth. The result is a spurt in population size. When referring to the
industrial revolution, this phenomenon has been called the "demographic
transition". It appears that this dynamic may have occurred twice before.

The decreases in time between surges suggests that, if past behavior is the best
predictor of future behavior, we are due for another surge. It may have already
begun, as indicated by the upturn in the projections at the right end of the
curve in Figure 1. What might the basis for another surge be? One can think of
several possibilities, including the "green revolution" and the "global economy".
A dominant element in past surges has been innovations in energy use (e.g., fire,
descending the food-chain, beasts of burden, fossil fuels, high-energy
agriculture). Thus, the development of an abundant and cheap energy source would
have a profound effect. Another 10-fold (or more) surge would produce a
population of 60 to 125 billion.

GLOBAL TEMPERATURE AND GREENHOUSE GASES

Figure 2. Greenhouse Gases and Mean Global Temperature (Greenhouse gas

concentrations and mean global temperature verses time). Time scale same as in
Fig. 1. Gas-concentration data have been normalized to the 0 to 1 scale on left:
CO2 (squares) - 190 to 430 ppm; CH4 (triangles) - 600 to 2400 ppb; N2O
(diamonds) - 280 to 340 ppb. Mean global temperature (circles) plotted relative
to oC on right. Vertical dashed-line at 1995, horizontal dotted line at maximum
CO2 concentration and global temperature over human history before 1990. Filled
and open symbols same as in Fig. 1. Projections in short-term future are based
upon continuation at current growth rates. (Data measured from graphs in Gribbin,
1990 and Khalil and Rasmussen, 1992). ----------

Mean-global-temperature (MGT) is related to the concentration of greenhouse

gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, water vapor and other trace
gases) in the atmosphere. The most prevalent greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide
(CO2). It has been shown that there is a strong relation between the atmospheric
concentration of CO2 and MGT over the last 160,000 years (Gribbin, 1990). It has
been suspected that the burning of fossil fuels and the clearing of land has
reached such proportions that these activities have precipitated a significant
increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. The concentrations of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere have been directly measured since about 1960 and have
been determined over the more distant past from air-bubbles trapped in old
Antarctic, Greenland and Siberian ice and from deep-sea sediments. Mean-global-
temperature has also been measured directly over the last few decades. Estimates
of global temperature in the distant past have been deduced from a variety of
sources. From these data, the relation among atmospheric greenhouse-gas
concentrations, MGT and time is illustrated in Figure 2.

The time scale in Figure 2 is the same as that in Figure 1. Because CO2, methane
(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) concentrations have different scales, the data
have been normalized on a 0 to 1 scale on the left. For CO2 (squares; Gribbin,
1990), 0 is equivalent to 190 parts per million (ppm) and 1 is equivalent to 430
ppm. For CH4 (triangles; R. Cicerone in Gribbin, 1990), the range is 600 to 2400
parts per billion (ppb). For N2O (diamonds; Khalil and Rasmussen, 1992), the
scale is 280 to 340 ppb. Mean global temperature (circles; Gribbin, 1990) has
been graphed relative to the degrees-centigrade scale on the right. The vertical
dashed-line is the same as that in Figure 1. The horizontal dotted-line is the
highest CO2 concentration and temperature in human history before 1990.
Greenhouse-gas concentrations and MGT in the short-term future are based upon
continuation at the current growth rates. This will be justified in another
context below.

Figure 3. Population and Global Warming (CO2 concentration and mean

global temperature verses log-population) CO2 concentration (circles) and mean
global temperature (squares) plotted relative to their absolute scales, ppm on
the left and oC on the right, respectively. Vertical dashed line at 1995. (Data
from Figs. 1 and 2) ----------

It is clear that the concentrations of all three gases have increased

exponentially since 1950 (-1.4, Fig. 2) and that MGT has done so since 1975.
Carbon dioxide concentration began to rise in conjunction with the use of fossil
fuels after 1850. Although methane comes from a variety of sources, including
plant decay, termites and bovine flatulence, CH4 concentration rises at the same
time as CO2. This is probably due to its association with fossil-fuel production.
Nitrous oxide concentration does not begin to rise until 1950. At this time, the
use of human-made fertilizers and internal-combustion-engine exhaust increased
dramatically. Ten thousand years ago (-4, Fig. 2), MGT increased substantially
just as the agricultural revolution got started. Over the previous 200,000 years,
the ecosystem was dominated by ice-ages. Projected MGT in 2025 (1.7, Fig. 2) is
about 17oC, 1.5oC higher than in human history prior to 1990.

POPULATION AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURE

We have seen in Figures 1 and 2 that recent population, atmospheric greenhouse-
gas concentrations and MGT have grown exponentially over about the same time-
course. The relation of CO2 and MGT relative to population size can be observed
by graphing these variables as above. Figure 3 shows this graph, where the log
of population replaces log-time and CO2 concentration (circles) and MGT
(squares) are plotted relative to their absolute scales, ppm on the left and oC
on the right, respectively. The vertical dashed-line denotes 1995, as in Figures
1 and 2. When the population reached 4 billion in 1975, the converging relation
between population and the other two variables becomes apparent.

The magnitude of the relations in Figures 2 and 3 can be determined by

calculating the correlation coefficient between pairs of variables. Table 1
lists these coefficients for the population, greenhouse-gas concentration and
MGT variables that we have been examining. The coefficients for the relations
during the industrial revolution, 1800 through 1994, are above the diagonal of
the table. The coefficients since 2000 years ago through 1994 are below the
diagonal. Over the past 2000 years, there is a nearly perfect correlation
between the concentration of greenhouse gases and population and between the
greenhouse gases themselves. However, the correlations between both population
and greenhouse-gas concentrations and MGT (bottom row) are not as strong. After
1800, the latter correlations increase to near perfection (rightmost column).
The conclusion from the graphs and table is that there is a strong relationship
among population size since 1800, greenhouse-gas concentrations and MGT.

TABLE 1. Correlation coefficients among population size, atmospheric greenhouse-

gas concentrations and mean global temperature (1800 through 1994 above the top-
left to bottom-right diagonal, n=10; 2000 years ago through 1994 below the
diagonal, n=15).

Pop CO2 CH4 N2O Temp

----------

Pop .996 .984 .977 .916 CO2 .990

.994 .974 .942 CH4 .991 .992 .949 .945 N2O
.959 .943 .942 .932 Temp .718 .716 .728
.829

GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE

Determining that there is a strong relation between population size and global
warming does not tell us what the underlying mechanisms are. However,
documentation of the relationship between human activities and the release of
greenhouse gases produces a strong inference that population size and global
warming are closely related (Gribbin, 1990).

Forecasting the future is risky business. Growth rates for greenhouse-gas

concentrations and MGT could decline from those at present due to unanticipated
innovations or natural events. For example, volcanoes can spew enough ash into
the atmosphere to block sunlight and temporarily reduce MGT slightly. However,
short-term continued growth at current rates is probably an underestimate.
Although population growth rate has slowed, the population is still growing. The
dominating factor is that per-capita energy and resource consumption rates are
increasing much faster than the population. This is not only due to anticipated
increases in standards of living in underdeveloped countries, but also to future
increases in the demand for energy in the developed countries (e.g., air
conditioning) as summer temperatures rise. Since most of the energy will come
from fossil fuels, at least for the next few decades, we can expect the
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and MGT to rise in the short-term
future at a faster rate than they have recently. As MGT rises, water vapor,
another greenhouse component, will become a more and more significant factor due
to increased evaporation.

Although a 1.5oC increase in MGT above where we were in 1990 (1990 to 2025 in
Fig. 2) does not seem like much of a change, it is enough to precipitate major
changes in climate. A 1.5oC drop in MGT from where we were in 1990, for example,
would put the ecosystem on the verge of an ice-age. Already, there is a
suspicion that, since 1975, the persistent El Nino is the first sign of the
relation between global warming and climate (Kerr, 1994). As MGT increases
further, we can expect more frequent and severe hurricanes and perpetual
summertime droughts in many places, particularly in the US Midwest.
 Paradoxically, more intense winter storms will occur in some places and climatic
conditions for agriculture will improve in some areas, such as in Russia
(Gribbin, 1990; Bernard, 1993).

There has been considerable debate over the ecosystem's carrying capacity for
humans. If we define that carrying capacity as the level that the ecosystem can
support without changing state more than it has over the duration of human
history, then Figures 2 and 3 indicate that we exceeded that capacity in 1975.
This is the point in time where exponential growth began to push MGT along a
path which has taken it outside the previous range. This does not necessarily
mean that humans could not survive if MGT is about 2oC higher than it has ever
been in their history. However, we will have to adapt to a radically different
climate pattern and, if MGT goes any higher than that, there could be disastrous
probGlobal Warming Essay

The Earth is at risk, and many people do not seem to care, or even notice. Factories continue to pollute the air with their toxic smog, and it is causing the warm air to stay in our
atmosphere, heating up the world. Global Warming is a growing problem and needs to be stopped now.
Global warming is an interesting topic. There is confusion amongst scientists about what it really is. Global warming is defined as the release of green house gases into the air
that trap heat on the earth, causing for warmer temperatures. The issue of global warming is also very up in the air, because many people do not even believe that it exists, and
because of this, there is much debate about what people should do about global warming.
Global warming is affecting the earth a lot, and it is affecting it fast too. This decade has been the hottest decade in centuries (Stuart, 11-01-2005). Because of this the polar ice
caps are melting, and it could change the flow of the North Atlantic Current (The Day after Tomorrow, 2005). The change in flow could cause immeasurable effects to the Earth,
and could change the weather that occurs on the earth dramatically.
According to the IPCC 2001 report, the Earth's surface has warmed by about 1 degree Fahrenheit, and that is the biggest it has raised in centuries (Stuart, 11-01-2005). If the
earth continues this pattern, there may not be a very hospitable area around in a few centuries. The hotter atmosphere on the earth causes the ocean temperature to rise, and
coincidently hurricanes get more power from warmer waters, which is why hurricanes of late have been so damaging.
Not only does global warming affect the earths weather patterns, it also affects its wildlife. For instance, the Polar Bears in the Arctic are being threatened by decreasing ice caps,
and they do not have any

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Posted: December 14, 2007 at 12:51 pm

The positive effects of global warming

Sure we might all be killed by global warming, and I seriously doubt paving over the rain forest with strip malls

is good for the long term health of the planet but lets try and lookon the bright (and warmer) side of things. I’m a glass is half full kind of guy so lets all take a
moment and try to focus on the postitive effects of global warming…

Better for the Economy

Roback found that heating degree days, total snowfall, and the number of cloudy days were

positively correlated with wages, suggesting these are disamenities. As expected, the number of

clear days was negatively correlated with wages. In her 1988 paper, she also found that the colder

the winter (heating degree days), the higher the wages.

The DOT’s third conference on global climate change, referred to above, used differences in

occupational wages among urban areas to estimate the value of climate to humans. One of the

tables, presented by Ralph C. D’Arge (1974, p. 569) in his overview of the economic research, drew

on the work of Irving Hoch to supply estimates of the costs and benefits of a 0.5deg.C warming.

Hoch’s work (1974) implies that a rise in temperature would have bestowed on workers an implicit

gain of $1.6 billion in 1971 dollars. In other words, adjusting for 1995’s level of wages and salaries

and assuming that the temperature/wage relationship is linear, workers in 1995 would have been

willing to accept about $47 billion less in wages for working in a 2.5deg.C warmer climate. to wages.

Department of Energy studies have shown that a warmer climate would reduce heating bills more

than it would boost outlays on air conditioning. If we currently enjoyed the weather predicted for the end of the next century, expenditures for heating and

cooling would be cut by about $12.2 billion annually.

Source
Warmer Weather is Healthier
From a purely evolutionary point of view, warm periods have always benefited plants and animals.

The world has thrived during the warming periods between the ice ages. Cold periods have always

caused serious survival problems for all organisms including mankind. Scientific studies show that

there will be 40,000 fewer deaths each year in the U.S. In Britain alone, scientists estimate that

about 30,000 deaths a year are related to cold winter weather. Warmer temperatures in the U.S. will

reduce medical costs by about $20 billion every year.

Source
More Usable Land For Farming & Housing:
As the ice retreats to the poles, more

arable land will become available for

both residential and agricultural

purposes. Large land-masses in the

northern hemisphere, just south of

the Canadian/U.S. border, have some very extreme climates that can be quite inhospitable for

human habitation. Most Canadians live in a belt running along its southern border with the United

States. But once global warming is factored in, vast northern regions will become arable and

comfortably habitable. All of Canada will welcome an agricultural boon field with long growing

seasons. Heretofore uninhabitable land will not only become inhabitable, but even temperate.

Satellite measurements now show that our planet has become greener than it was prior to the

onset of global warming. The rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere dramatically

increases overall global food production. The presence of carbon dioxide has a fertilizing

effect on the growth of plant life. The warmer weather means a longer growing season, and thus greater output. This, combined with fewer frosts and more

precipitation, among other factors, will greatly benefit all of the agricultural economic sectors, plus the positive impacts on forestry and recreation. In addition to the

dramatic increase of actual land available for cultivation, natural resources would be much easier to extract. The overall economic impact of global warming on the

U.S. economy will actually be positive, creating a measurable increase in Gross Domestic Product.
The deserts of China received rains and were fertile 8,000 years ago, and this would be good news for China, since they need all the fertile land they can get, with

their huge population. The arable land was also hundreds of miles further north into China than it is now. As well, those areas of India which are now deserts, were

also rained on and fertile in those days, and that’s also good news, given how desperate hard up India is, being so poor and having such a huge population.

Winters in the northern hemisphere will be milder.

So already we can see that Climate Change could very well prove to be good for Africa, China, and India. The results are mixed for Europe, but then they can

always migrate north if someone can find the money in Europe to migrate people north, and the government can find the money to buy really poor people air

conditioning so they won’t die by the tens or even hundreds of thousands every summer.

Source
Carbon Dioxide Good for Plants

According to climatologists, the villain causing a warmer world is the unprecedented amount of

carbon dioxide (CO2) we humans keep pumping into the atmosphere. But as high school biology

students nationwide know, plants absorb carbon dioxide and emit oxygen. Researchers have shown

that virtually all plants will do better in a CO2-rich environment than in the current atmosphere,

which contains only trace amounts of their basic food.

Plants also prefer warmer winters and nights, and a warmer world would mean longer growing

seasons. Combined with higher levels of CO2, plant life would become more vigorous, thus

providing more food for animals and humans. Given a rising world population, longer growing

seasons, greater rainfall, and an enriched atmosphere could be just the ticket to stave off famine

and want.

Forests will expand northward into the current tundra regions. Although forest growth increases

carbon dioxide uptake, this beneficial effect will be overwhelmed by the release of large stores of methane and carbon dioxide as tundra regions thaw.

Source
Fewer Hurricanes

Global warming could increase a climate phenomenon known as wind shear that inhibits Atlantic

hurricanes, a potentially positive result of climate change, according to new research released on

Tuesday.

The study, to be published on Wednesday in Geophysical Research Letters, found that climate

model simulations show a "robust increase" in wind shear in the tropical Atlantic during the 21st

century from global warming.

Wind shear, a difference in wind speed or direction at different altitudes, tends to tear apart tropical

cyclones, preventing nascent ones from growing and already-formed hurricanes from becoming the

monster storms that cause the most damage.

The effect of global warming on wind shear is similar to the impact of El Nino, the periodic eastern

Pacific warm-water phenomenon that tends to put a damper on Atlantic storms. The sudden

development of El Nino was credited for an unexpectedly mild Atlantic season last year, when only 10 storms formed.

Source
Reduced Transportation Costs

A fabled sea route above North America linking the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans has become a

reality thanks to global warming. Scientists have confirmed that in August, Arctic sea ice shrank to

its lowest levels since satellite measurements began monitoring the region nearly 30 years ago.

One consequence of this is that the Northwest Passage has opened up much earlier than expected.

Fully navigable, the Northwest Passage will make the trip 4,000 miles shorter for ships traveling

between Europe and Asia, allowing them to avoid the Panama Canal. The Passage was partially

open for a time in 1998, but sailing a ship through at time would have been tricky, Serreze said.

Transportation generally would benefit from a warmer climate, since road travelers would suffer less

from slippery or impassable highways. Airline passengers, who often endure weather-related

delays in the winter, would gain from more reliable and on-time service.

Source
Warmer Weather is Safer
With most streets free from ice and snow, driving will be a lot safer; No need to shovel snow

reducing the stress induced heart attacks; Heating bills will be drastically lower; No need to

waste money on all of that cold weather gear. Rail, road and air transportation would be

positively impacted by a general warming since weather-related delays and accidents would be

greatly reduced. Department of Energy studies show that consumer energy bills would be

reduced by over $12 billion each year.

Global warming will have no real effect, positive or negative, on economic activities such as

manufacturing, retailing, wholesaling, banking, education and the majority of other businesses that

are unrelated to cold weather. Of course cold weather activities, such as snow-sports, would be

negatively affected.

Animals Thrive in Warm Climates

Researchers have shown, moreover, that virtually all plants will do better in an environment

enriched with carbon dioxide than in the current atmosphere, which contains only trace amounts of

their basic food. In addition, warmer winters and nights would mean longer growing seasons.

Combined with higher levels of CO2, plant life would become more vigorous, thus providing more

food for animals and humans. Given a rising world population, longer growing seasons, greater

rainfall, and an enriched atmosphere could be just the ticket to stave off famine and want.

Researchers say the apparent north-south widening of the tropics amounts to 2 degrees of latitude

or 140 miles. Animals in general thrive in warmer climates.

Fisheries experts credit global warming for unexpected salmon numbers.

Global warming will have no real effect, positive or negative, on economic activities such as

manufacturing, retailing, wholesaling, banking, education and the majority of other businesses that

are unrelated to cold weather. Of course cold weather activities, such as snow-sports, would be negatively affected.
Shorter Winters

Man-made global warming has caused spring weather to appear an average of 10 days earlier than

the start of spring 30 years ago, according to a report released Monday by Stanford scientists.

Baseball season could be expaned to included another half dozen games with an earlier spring

althougth this could result in losing a football game so that would be a draw.

Shorter and more mild winters will mean less time spent indoors with the heater on getting cold, not

exercising and feeling depressed. There will be a reduction in warm weather clothing and goods but

women wearing less clothing and suffering from cabin fever

will be a huge plus.

Source
Improved Beer Quality

On July 31 a team of canny

entrepreneurs unveiled Greenland

Beer, an ale brewed with water melted from Greenland’s ice cap, at a public tasting in

Copenhagen, Denmark.

Staffed by indigenous Greenlanders and located some 390 miles (625 kilometers) south of the

Arctic Circle, Greenland Brewhouse is the world’s first Inuit microbrewery.

And if reaction from tipplers at the tasting was any indication, the brewers may be on to

something. Electrician Flemming Larsen described the ale to the Associated Press as "smooth,

soft, but not bitter … different from most other beer.

Source
vvvvvwhere to walk and rest. Also, they can not eat food because they can not find land to eat it on (Stuart,
11-01-2005). Besides the Polar...lems.