ALFI RH ISSUE PAPERS

ISSUE PAPER # 4: Demographic Winter

SEC. 3.Guiding Principles. -This Act declares the following as guiding principles:
(c) Since human resource is among the principal assets of the country,
maternal health, birth of healthy children and their full human development and
responsible parenting must be ensured through effective reproductive health
care;
(d) The provision of medically safe, legal, accessible, affordable and
effective reproductive health care services and supplies is essential in the
promotion of people’s right to health, especially of the poor and marginalized;
(j) There shall be no demographic or population targets and the mitigation
of the population growth rate is incidental to the promotion of reproductive health
and sustainable human development;
m) Development is a multi-faceted process that calls for the coordination
and integration of policies, plans, programs and projects that seek to uplift the
quality of life of the people, more particularly the poor, the needy and the
marginalized; and
SEC. 4.Definition of Terms. -For the purposes of this Act, the following terms
shall be defined as follows:
Population and Development refers to a program that aims to: (1) help couples
and parents achieve their desired family size; (2) improve reproductive health of
individuals by addressing reproductive health problems; (3) contribute to decreased
maternal and infant mortality rates and early child mortality; (4) reduce incidence of
teenage pregnancy; and (5) recognize the linkage between population and sustainable
human development;
SEC. 11. Procurement and Distribution of Family Planning Supplies. -The
DOH shall spearhead the efficient procurement, distribution to Local Government Units
(LGUs) and usage-monitoring of family planning supplies for the whole country. The DOH
shall coordinate with all appropriate LGUs to plan and implement this procurement and
distribution program. The supply and the budget allotments shall be based on, among
others, the current levels and projections of the following:
(a) number of women of reproductive age and couples who want to space or
limit their children;
(b) contraceptive prevalence rate, by type of method used; and
(c) Cost of family planning supplies.
SEC. 20.Ideal Family Size. –The State shall assist couples, parents and
individuals to achieve their desired family size within the context of responsible
parenthood for sustainable development and encourage them to have two children as the
ideal family size. Attaining the ideal family size is neither mandatory nor compulsory. No
punitive action shall be imposed on parents having more than two children.

The basic intent of HB 4244 is population control. Its inherent contradictions serve to
obscure this intent. In Section 3 c) it talks about the importance of human resources and in the
same breath restriction of population growth especially among the poor (Section 3 d).It claims to
have no population control targets in Section 3 j) but in Section 20 insists on a two-child ideal
family size. It identifies development as improvement of the lives of the poor in Section 3 m) but
its achievement criteria for distribution of budgetary allotments in Section 11 is contraceptive
RH Issue Paper # 4: Demographic Winter

prevalence rates. It is in its definition of Population and Development in Section 4 where its
population control agenda comes straight and clear: development is reduction of families to 2-
child ones, etc.

This population control agenda denies the growing Total Fertility Rate per Woman
global concern over the demographic winter. The fall in Source: UN World Fertility Report 2009
1970 2006
fertility is an observed phenomenon in both rich and poor
France 2.5 2.0
countries and majority of the cases fertility has fallen below
Germany 2.0 1.3
the accepted 2.1 replacement rate indicative of the inability of Spain 2.8 1.4
the population to replace itself. When developed countries United Kingdom 2.4 1.8
imposed their racists population control programs on poor United States of America 2.5 2.1
Philippines 5.9 3.6
countries they also fell prey to the lures of enjoying a “safe
Singapore 3.1 1.3
and satisfying sex life” free from the responsibilities of Thailand 6.1 1.9
children. Rich countries have instituted subsidies to Japan 2.1 1.3
encourage child bearing but to no success. It appears that China 5.8 1.4
Republic of Korea 4.3 1.2
the Philippines is one of the few countries who have not
Iran (Islamic Republic of) 6.5 1.9
succumbed to this low fertility trap; and there is a global intent China, Hong Kong SAR 3.3 1.1
to ensure that it shares the same fate as the rest of the world. Iran (Islamic Republic of) 6.5 1.9
It is important that our lawmakers understand the dire Brazil 5.2 1.7
demographic consequences behind population control. Chile 3.6 1.8

Percentage of 60 years and over Global trends indicate that fertility reduction
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2010
Revision
accompanied by increased life expectancy have produced
2009 2050 aging populations all over the world.This is evidenced by
France 23 33 the increase in percentage of 60 years and over in the
Germany 26 40 latest UN projections. It is unfortunate that some
Spain 22 38 demographers are in denial of this fact by insisting that
UK 22 29
US
with such a young population aging should not be a
18 27
Philippines 7 18 problem for the Philippines. Demography has a certain
Singapore 15 40 exactness that cannot be gainsaid. The population group
Thailand 11 26 who will turn 50 in the year 2050 have already been born
Japan 30 44
China
and there is no possibility to adding to their size since it is
12 31
Republic of Korea 15 41 biologically impossible to give birth to a 10 year old child.
Iran 7 28 The children who have been aborted or contracepted
Hong Kong 12 31 cannot be replaced. The rise of the graying population,
Brazil 10 29
often called by the name demographic winter, is a cause
Chile 13 29
a manifold of social and economic concerns.

Traditionally families provide support for both the young and elderly dependents. In
developed countries with elaborate social security systems that tax the labor force in order to
finance the pension system this role was obscured and gave families the misleading impression
that children were not needed to support them in their old age. Obviously they were wrong
since a fertility reduction directly caused the labor force to shrink. And combined with to
improvement in life expectancy that caused the increase in the elderly population an explosive
cocktail resulted: bankruptcy of the social security system! The magnitude of the problem is
RH Issue Paper # 4: Demographic Winter

already a serious one. This is the main force driving the

Old Age Support Ratio
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2010
growth of global overseas contract working in Central
Revision Europe and Northern America. It is predictably going to
2009 2050 worsen by the middle of the century. At the lead is
France 4 2 Japan where one worker will be supporting one elderly
Germany 3 2
by 2050. Since all the countries have fallen into this low
Spain 4 2
UK 4 3 fertility trap massive migration cannot be the solution.
US 5 3 Recent events show that it invites social problems of
Philippines 15 5 racism because integration of the migrant population is
Singapore 8 2
not guaranteed. Inevitably the Philippines will also be
Thailand 9 3
Japan 3 1
affected. If rich countries with their more productive
China 9 3 labor are going to suffer from the demographic winter
Republic of Korea 7 2 one can foresee more difficult times for the poor
Iran 15 3 countries who will continue to suffer from low productivity
China, Hong Kong SAR 9 3
Brazil 10 3
in the decades to come.
Chile 8 3
In the case of the Philippines poor families are
beyond the help of SSS and GSIS and the assistance that these institutions give to middle class
families are a mere pittance. The 2-child policy that HB 4244 dictates as “ideal” precisely
imposes an old age support ratio of 1! And if by some misfortune one or both children die (since
mortality rates among the poor are higher) parents will become dependents of the State!

On the basis of these demographic trends HB 4244 should be rejected!