PROMEDIO MÓVIL SIMPLE

SEMANAS DEMANDA REAL Prom. 3 Prom. 9

semanas semanas
1 800
2 1400
3 1000
4 1500 1067
5 1500 1300
6 1300 1333
7 1800 1433
8 1700 1533
9 1300 1600
10 1700 1600 1367 Chart Title
11 1700 1567 1467 3000
12 1500 1567 1500
13 2300 1633 1556 2500

14 2300 1833 1644 2000

15 2000 2033 1733
16 1700 2200 1811 1500
17 1800 2000 1800
1000
18 2200 1833 1811
19 1900 1900 1911 500
20 2400 1967 1933
0
21 2400 2167 2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
22 2600 2233 2111
SEMANAS DEMANDA REAL
23 2000 2467 2144
24 2500 2333 2111
25 2600 2367 2167
26 2200 2367 2267
27 2200 2433 2311
28 2500 2333 2311
29 2400 2300 2378
30 2100 2367 2378
51767 40722
 Chart Title

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

SEMANAS DEMANDA REAL

 PROMEDIO MÓVIL SIMPLE

SEMANAS DEMANDA REAL Prom. 4 Prom. 5 Ponderaciones

semanas semanas
1 800 0.10
2 1400 0.20
3 1000 0.10
4 1500 0.30
5 1500 1265 0.30
6 1300 1335 1360 1.00
7 1800 1355 1330
8 1700 1565 1480 3000
9 1300 1570 1630 Ponderaciones
10 1700 1530 1490 0.15 2500
11 1700 1635 1560 0.30
2000
12 1500 1580 1670 0.20
13 2300 1570 1560 0.35
1500
14 2300 1870 1780 1.00
15 2000 1970 2040 1000
16 1700 2075 1990
17 1800 2030 1950 500
18 2200 1915 1940
19 1900 1940 2000 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
20 2400 1900 1950
21 2400 2150 2040 SEMANAS
22 2600 2220 2250
23 2000 2395 2340
24 2500 2300 2290
25 2600 2415 2330
26 2200 2400 2490
27 2200 2340 2350
28 2500 2365 2280
29 2400 2365 2400
30 2100 2330 2390
31 2295 2260
 Chart Title
3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

SEMANAS DEMANDA REAL Prom. 4 semanas Prom. 5 semanas

 donde

Alpha= 0.5
EAM= 254.4

SEMANAS DEMANDA REAL Pronostico Error Error abs.

1 800
2 1400 1400 0.0 0.0
3 1000 1400 -400.0 400.0
4 1500 1200 300.0 300.0 3000
5 1500 1350 150.0 150.0
6 1300 1425 -125.0 125.0 2500
7 1800 1363 437.5 437.5
2000
8 1700 1581 118.8 118.8
9 1300 1641 -340.6 340.6
1500
10 1700 1470 229.7 229.7
11 1700 1585 114.8 114.8
1000
12 1500 1643 -142.6 142.6
13 2300 1571 728.7 728.7 500
14 2300 1936 364.4 364.4
15 2000 2118 -117.8 117.8 0
16 1700 2059 -358.9 358.9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1

17 1800 1879 -79.5 79.5 -500

18 2200 1840 360.3 360.3
19 1900 2020 -119.9 119.9 -1000
20 2400 1960 440.1 440.1
SEMANAS
21 2400 2180 220.0 220.0 Error
22 2600 2290 310.0 310.0
23 2000 2445 -445.0 445.0
24 2500 2222 277.5 277.5
25 2600 2361 238.8 238.8
26 2200 2481 -280.6 280.6
27 2200 2340 -140.3 140.3
28 2500 2270 229.8 229.8
29 2400 2385 14.9 14.9
30 2100 2393 -292.5 292.5
31 2246 -2246.3 2246.3

Error medio= 58.4

Error absoluto= 254.4
 Chart Title

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

SEMANAS DEMANDA REAL Pronostico

Error Error abs.