ENTREGA FINAL Winters Pollo

Nacional 100% META
año carne año

2016 910052 2016
2017 905582 2017
2018 935025 2018
2019 932813 2019
prome
AÑOS
mes Proporcion por demanda dt(TON) ft
1 0.1257 6003.93
2 0.1115 5327.43
3 0.0248 1183.87
4 0.0637 3044.24 4171.74
5 0.1735 8287.11 3889.87
2016 6 0.0354 1691.25 4769.32
7 0.1611 7695.17 4256.31
8 0.0354 1691.25 4747.57
9 0.0637 3044.24 4365.53
10 0.0973 4650.93 4218.72
11 0.0513 2452.31 4261.94
12 0.0566 2706.00 4097.43
13 0.0447 2126.75 3981.48
14 0.0592 2812.79 3838.81
15 0.0216 1029.07 3765.52
16 0.0981 4665.12 3583.09
17 0.1443 6860.47 3650.72
18 0.1025 4870.93 3839.53
2017
19 0.1342 6380.24 3896.83
20 0.1414 6723.26 4027.53
21 0.0505 2401.16 4162.32
22 0.0924 4390.70 4078.45
23 0.0433 2058.14 4092.65
24 0.0678 3224.42 4004.19
25 0.0305 1494.79 3971.70
26 0.0962 4723.53 3872.62
27 0.0560 2750.41 3905.35
28 0.1145 5620.40 3862.57
29 0.1194 5859.57 3925.35
30 0.1108 5441.03 3992.05
2018
31 0.0195 956.66 4040.35
32 0.0999 4902.90 3940.88
33 0.1121 5500.82 3970.94
34 0.1206 5919.36 4017.30
35 0.0341 1674.16 4073.24
36 0.0865 4245.20 4004.70
37 4004.7 4011.38
38 4004.7 4011.20
39 4004.7 4011.03
40 4004.7 4010.86
41 4004.7 4010.71
42 4004.7 4010.56
2019
43 4004.7 4010.42
44 4004.7 4010.29
45 4004.7 4010.16
46 4004.7 4010.04
47 4004.7 4009.93
48 4004.7 4009.81
N
ME
medidas de desempeño g MAD
MAPE
MSE
Carne de res 30% 8%
T ft carne para asar sobrebarriga
37 4011377.71 1203413.31 320910.22

38 4011197.23 1203359.17 320895.78
39 4011026.25 1203307.88 320882.10
40 4010864.04 1203259.21 320869.12
2019
41 4010709.94 1203212.98 320856.80
42 4010563.35 1203169.01 320845.07
43 4010423.75 1203127.13 320833.90
2019
44 4010290.64 1203087.19 320823.25

45 4010163.58 1203049.07 320813.09
46 4010042.17 1203012.65 320803.37
47 4009926.03 1202977.81 320794.08
48 4009814.84 1202944.45 320785.19
LINEA DE DEMANDA CARNE
35% GRANJA 15%
carne año carne

318518.20 2016 47777.73
316953.70 2017 47543.06
327258.75 2018 49088.81
326484.55 2019 48972.68
promedio movil simple N=3
ET IETI IetI/ dt E^2
1127.50 1127.50 0.37 1271251.86

-4397.24 4397.24 0.53 19335740.79
3078.07 3078.07 1.82 9474512.99
-3438.87 3438.87 0.45 11825820.43
3056.33 3056.33 1.81 9341122.99
1321.29 1321.29 0.43 1745798.76
-432.21 432.21 0.09 186803.40
1809.63 1809.63 0.74 3274776.57
1391.44 1391.44 0.51 1936091.63
1854.73 1854.73 0.87 3440030.40
1026.01 1026.01 0.36 1052703.17
2736.45 2736.45 2.66 7488151.49
-1082.03 1082.03 0.23 1170789.25
-3209.75 3209.75 0.47 10302517.98
-1031.41 1031.41 0.21 1063803.13
-2483.41 2483.41 0.39 6167331.16
-2695.73 2695.73 0.40 7266953.91
1761.15 1761.15 0.73 3101661.73
-312.25 312.25 0.07 97498.28
2034.51 2034.51 0.99 4139213.06
779.77 779.77 0.24 608039.68
2476.91 2476.91 1.66 6135093.79
-850.90 850.90 0.18 724038.88
1154.94 1154.94 0.42 1333889.87
-1757.83 1757.83 0.31 3089950.79
-1934.21 1934.21 0.33 3741176.28
-1448.97 1448.97 0.27 2099527.58
3083.69 3083.69 3.22 9509120.38
-962.03 962.03 0.20 925493.75
-1529.88 1529.88 0.28 2340524.98
-1902.06 1902.06 0.32 3617824.41
2399.08 2399.08 1.43 5755588.02
-240.50 240.50 0.06 57839.54
3
41.89
1842.45
0.70
4352141.85
5% 15% 25% 1000
cadera hueso otros carne para asar unidades
200568.89 601706.7 1002844.43 1203413312.50

200559.86 601679.6 1002799.31 1203359168.92
200551.31 601653.9 1002756.56 1203307875.00
200543.20 601629.6 1002716.01 1203259211.54
200535.50 601606.5 1002677.48 1203212981.25
200528.17 601584.5 1002640.84 1203169006.10
200521.19 601563.6 1002605.94 1203127125.00
200514.53 601543.6 1002572.66 1203087191.86
200508.18 601524.5 1002540.89 1203049073.86
200502.11 601506.3 1002510.54 1203012650.00
200496.30 601488.9 1002481.51 1202977809.78
200490.74 601472.2 1002453.71 1202944452.13
total 14437919857.94
DE DEMANDA CARNE
2016-2
9000.00
8000.00
7000.00
6000.00
TONELADAS
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
f(x) = 1.98594967456416 x + 3
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1
MESES DE EN
suavizacion exponencial simple
FT ET IETI IetI/ dt
6003.93
6003.93 676.50 676.50 0.13
5834.80 4650.93 4650.93 3.93
4672.07 1627.83 1627.83 0.53
4265.11 -4022.00 4022.00 0.49
5270.61 3579.37 3579.37 2.12
4375.77 -3319.40 3319.40 0.43
5205.62 3514.38 3514.38 2.08
4327.03 1282.78 1282.78 0.42
4006.33 -644.60 644.60 0.14
4167.48 1715.17 1715.17 0.70
3738.69 1032.69 1032.69 0.38
3480.52 1353.77 1353.77 0.64
3142.07 329.28 329.28 0.12
3059.75 2030.68 2030.68 1.97
2552.08 -2113.04 2113.04 0.45
3080.34 -3780.13 3780.13 0.55
4025.37 -845.56 845.56 0.17
4236.76 -2143.47 2143.47 0.34
4772.63 -1950.63 1950.63 0.29
5260.29 2859.12 2859.12 1.19
4545.51 154.81 154.81 0.04
4506.81 2448.67 2448.67 1.19
3894.64 670.22 670.22 0.21
3727.08 2232.30 2232.30 1.49
3169.01 -1554.52 1554.52 0.33
3557.64 807.23 807.23 0.29
3355.83 -2264.57 2264.57 0.40
3921.97 -1937.59 1937.59 0.33
4406.37 -1034.65 1034.65 0.19
4665.04 3708.37 3708.37 3.88
3737.94 -1164.96 1164.96 0.24
4029.18 -1471.63 1471.63 0.27
4397.09 -1522.27 1522.27 0.26
4777.66 3103.50 3103.50 1.85
4001.78 -243.41 243.41 0.06
4062.64
4048.15
4037.29
4029.14
4023.03
4018.45
4015.01
4012.43
4010.50
4009.05
4007.96
4007.15
ME 221.86
MAD 1936.86
MAPE 0.80
MSE 5115146.76070913
unidades a producir x kilogramo
sobrebarriga unidades cadera unidades hueso unidades otros unidades
320910216.67 200568885.42 601706656.25 1002844427.08

320895778.38 200559861.49 601679584.46 1002799307.43
320882100.00 200551312.50 601653937.50 1002756562.50
320869123.08 200543201.92 601629605.77 1002716009.62
320856795.00 200535496.88 601606490.63 1002677484.38
320845068.29 200528167.68 601584503.05 1002640838.41
320833900.00 200521187.50 601563562.50 1002605937.50
320823251.16 200514531.98 601543595.93 1002572659.88
320813086.36 200508178.98 601524536.93 1002540894.89
320803373.33 200502108.33 601506325.00 1002510541.67
320794082.61 200496301.63 601488904.89 1002481508.15
320785187.23 200490742.02 601472226.06 1002453710.11
3850111962.12 2406319976.32 7218959928.97 12031599881.62
2016-2018 Dt carne
.98594967456416 x + 3974.6376393539
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
MESES DE ENERO DE 2016 A DICIEMBRE DE

2018
E^2
457650.66951 FAMILIA ENERO FEBRERO

21631144.926 RES 4011377.71 4011197.23
2649815.2534 CERDO 2207582.64 2188064.50
16176459.557 POLLO 7520397.40 7558605.96
12811860.172
11018434.388
12350832.316
1645533.9142
415505.26906
2941820.0223
1066454.9116
1832691.8596
108425.42076
4123670.3509
4464926.4666
14289369.578
714971.67047
4594477.8487
3804951.4299
8174593.2279
23965.270732
5995960.7756
449193.47723
4983153.3091
2416523.3667
651622.4116
5128268.1373
3754262.5312
1070507.9328
13752019.392
1357130.9402
2165708.4345
2317294.9411
9631687.0146
59249.439643
METODO/INDICADOR ME MAD
PMS 41.89 1842.45
SES 221.86 1936.86

32 33 34 35 36
0.25
ALFA
PRONOSTICOS 2019 EN KILOGRAMOS

MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOSTO
4011026.25 4010864.04 4010709.94 4010563.35 4010423.75 4010290.64
2168546.36 2149028.23 2129510.09 2109991.95 2090473.82 2070955.68
7596814.53 7635023.09 7673231.66 7711440.22 7749648.79 7787857.35
MAPE MSE
69.88% 4352142 Metodo seleccionado
80.25% 5115147
RAMOS
SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE DICIEMBRE
4010163.58 4010042.17 4009926.03 4009814.84
2051437.54 2031919.40 2012401.27 1992883.13
7826065.91 7864274.48 7902483.04 7940691.61
Nacional META 35%
año pollo año pollo
2016 1,478,924 2016 517,623
2017 1,563,569 2017 547,249
2018 1,629,648 2018 570,377
2019 1,693,178 2019 592,612
suavizacion exponencial doble

AÑOS proporcion por dt(TONEL
mes
demanda ADAS) st
5533.61 1 0.0713 5533.61 6106.68
5994.75 2 0.0772 5994.75 5992.07
6571.17 3 0.0846 6571.17 5981.28
6686.45 4 0.0861 6686.45 6118.47
6340.6 5 0.0817 6340.60 6289.80
6686.45 2016 6 0.0861 6686.45 6366.53
6917.02 7 0.0891 6917.02 6508.28
5879.46 8 0.0757 5879.46 6687.82
6225.31 9 0.0802 6225.31 6583.15
6628.81 10 0.0854 6628.81 6529.53
6917.02 11 0.0891 6917.02 6563.57
7262.87 12 0.0935 7262.87 6666.86
5980.51 13 0.0729 5980.51 6852.68
6366.35 14 0.0776 6366.35 6707.35
6173.43 15 0.0752 6173.43 6631.21
6559.27 16 0.0799 6559.27 6502.70
6752.19 17 0.0823 6752.19 6473.97
6848.65 18 0.0834 6848.65 6508.12
2017
7041.57 19 0.0858 7041.57 6579.20
6945.11 20 0.0846 6945.11 6704.31
7330.95 21 0.0893 7330.95 6803.55
7427.41 22 0.0905 7427.41 6986.82
7427.41 23 0.0905 7427.41 7178.50
7234.49 24 0.0881 7234.49 7344.04
6033.82 25 0.0705 6033.82 7427.26
6188.54 26 0.0723 6188.54 7172.64
6807.39 27 0.0796 6807.39 6920.71
6962.1 28 0.0814 6962.10 6822.41
7116.82 29 0.0832 7116.82 6786.05
6962.1 30 0.0814 6962.10 6812.86
2018
7271.53 31 0.0850 7271.53 6820.89
7271.53 32 0.0850 7271.53 6916.62
7426.24 33 0.0868 7426.24 7019.47
7658.31 34 0.0895 7658.31 7157.35
7735.67 35 0.0904 7735.67 7342.30
8122.45 36 0.0949 8122.45 7528.01
1 37 7782.15
2 38
3 39
4 40
5 41
6 42
2019
7 43
8 44
9 45
10 46
11 47
12 48
medidas de desempeño g
pollo KILOGRAMOS 10% 50%

Proporcion
T FT Alas pechuga
por demanda
37 7520397.40 752039.74 3760198.70
38 7558605.96 755860.60 3779302.98
39 7596814.53 759681.45 3798407.26
40 7635023.09 763502.31 3817511.55
41 7673231.66 767323.17 3836615.83
42 7711440.22 771144.02 3855720.11
2019
43 7749648.79 774964.88 3874824.39
2019
44 7787857.35 778785.74 3893928.68
45 7826065.91 782606.59 3913032.96
46 7864274.48 786427.45 3932137.24
47 7902483.04 790248.30 3951241.52
48 7940691.61 794069.16 3970345.80
Patrones de serie de tiempo: Demanda con tendencia (lineal creciente)

Metodo Seleccionado:
Regresión Lineal
DEMANDA DE CARNE DE POLLO
El comportamiento de la demanda muestra una tendencia lineas

con proyeccion a crecimiento de al misma
GRANJA 15%
año pollo
2016 77643.51
2017 82087.37
2018 85556.52
2019 88891.85
suavizacion exponencial doble

ET lETl lETl/DT E^2
gt ft
38.21
-15.28 6144.89 611.28 611.28 0.11 373658.22
-13.71 5976.79 -17.96 17.96 0.00 322.40
39.11 5967.57 -603.59 603.59 0.09 364322.93
85.38 6157.58 -528.87 528.87 0.08 279703.55
82.36 6375.18 34.58 34.58 0.01 1195.90
103.14 6448.89 -237.56 237.56 0.04 56433.33
129.88 6611.43 -305.59 305.59 0.04 93385.97
47.79 6817.71 938.24 938.24 0.16 880298.22
12.30 6630.93 405.62 405.62 0.07 164525.61
19.91 6541.82 -86.98 86.98 0.01 7566.24
49.09 6583.48 -333.54 333.54 0.05 111249.43
96.95 6715.95 -546.92 546.92 0.08 299116.20
12.15 6949.63 969.11 969.11 0.16 939181.17
-18.75 6719.50 353.14 353.14 0.06 124711.01
-57.17 6612.46 439.03 439.03 0.07 192744.58
-47.21 6445.54 -113.74 113.74 0.02 12935.78
-18.74 6426.76 -325.44 325.44 0.05 105908.43
12.70 6489.38 -359.28 359.28 0.05 129078.78
52.04 6591.89 -449.68 449.68 0.06 202210.63
68.56 6756.36 -188.75 188.75 0.03 35628.10
108.71 6872.11 -458.84 458.84 0.06 210538.14
137.75 7095.53 -331.88 331.88 0.04 110146.65
147.48 7316.25 -111.16 111.16 0.01 12357.25
124.99 7491.52 257.02 257.02 0.04 66061.17
-7.88 7552.25 1518.42 1518.42 0.25 2305609.73
-93.30 7164.77 976.23 976.23 0.16 953022.64
-95.05 6827.41 20.02 20.02 0.00 400.90
-74.51 6727.36 -234.74 234.74 0.03 55104.69
-39.05 6711.54 -405.28 405.28 0.06 164250.75
-22.57 6773.81 -188.29 188.29 0.03 35453.48
18.84 6798.32 -473.21 473.21 0.07 223932.41
48.24 6935.46 -336.07 336.07 0.05 112946.31
79.61 7067.72 -358.53 358.53 0.05 128541.35
116.48 7236.96 -421.35 421.35 0.06 177536.75
140.71 7458.78 -276.89 276.89 0.04 76666.86
180.41 7668.71
7962.56
8142.97
8323.39
8503.80
8684.21
8864.62
9045.03
9225.45
9405.86
9586.27
9766.68
9947.10
N
ME -33.47
MAD 406.20
MAPE 0.06
MSE 257335.6
15% 25% 1000 unidades a producir x kilogramos
hueso otros Alas Pechuga hueso otros
1128059.61 1880099.35 752039740 3760198699.85 1128059609.96 1880099349.93

1133790.89 1889651.49 755860596 3779302982.05 1133790894.62 1889651491.03
1139522.18 1899203.63 759681453 3798407264.25 1139522179.28 1899203632.13
1145253.46 1908755.77 763502309 3817511546.45 1145253463.94 1908755773.23
1150984.75 1918307.91 767323166 3836615828.65 1150984748.60 1918307914.33
1156716.03 1927860.06 771144022 3855720110.85 1156716033.25 1927860055.42
1162447.32 1937412.20 774964879 3874824393.05 1162447317.91 1937412196.52
1168178.60 1946964.34 778785735 3893928675.25 1168178602.57 1946964337.62
1173909.89 1956516.48 782606591 3913032957.45 1173909887.23 1956516478.72
1179641.17 1966068.62 786427448 3932137239.65 1179641171.89 1966068619.82
1185372.46 1975620.76 790248304 3951241521.85 1185372456.55 1975620760.92
1191103.74 1985172.90 794069161 3970345804.04 1191103741.21 1985172902.02
total 9276653405 46383267023.39 13914980107.02 23191633511.7
2016-2018 DT POLLO
9000.00
8000.00
7000.00
f(x) = 38.2085643985252 x + 6106.68051696061
6000.00
a una tendencia lineas
TONELADAS
e al misma 5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2
MESES DE ENERO 2016 A DICIEMBRE 2018
Regresion lineal
ft ET IETI IetI/ dt E^2
6144.89 611.28 611.28 0.110 373658.222

6183.10 188.35 188.35 0.031 35475.7334
6221.31 -349.86 349.86 0.053 122401.633
6259.51 -426.93 426.93 0.064 182273.059
6297.72 -42.88 42.88 0.007 1838.27437
6335.93 -350.52 350.52 0.052 122862.421
6374.14 -542.88 542.88 0.078 294714.366
6412.35 532.89 532.89 0.091 283966.448
6450.56 225.24 225.24 0.036 50734.3025
6488.77 -140.04 140.04 0.021 19611.5657
6526.97 -390.04 390.04 0.056 152132.571
6565.18 -697.68 697.68 0.096 486762.985
6603.39 622.88 622.88 0.104 387977.288
6641.60 275.25 275.25 0.043 75761.0237
6679.81 506.38 506.38 0.082 256416.211
6718.02 158.74 158.74 0.024 25199.8287
6756.23 4.03 4.03 0.001 16.2675827
6794.43 -54.22 54.22 0.008 2939.59409
6832.64 -208.93 208.93 0.030 43651.433
6870.85 -74.26 74.26 0.011 5514.66523
6909.06 -421.89 421.89 0.058 177992.705
6947.27 -480.14 480.14 0.065 230537.444
6985.48 -441.93 441.93 0.060 195306.177
7023.69 -210.81 210.81 0.029 44439.2649
7061.89 1028.07 1028.07 0.170 1056930.67
7100.10 911.57 911.57 0.147 830953.452
7138.31 330.92 330.92 0.049 109508.957
7176.52 214.42 214.42 0.031 45974.4452
7214.73 97.91 97.91 0.014 9586.69499
7252.94 290.83 290.83 0.042 84584.2128
7291.15 19.62 19.62 0.003 384.763148
7329.35 57.82 57.82 0.008 3343.60859
7367.56 -58.68 58.68 0.008 3443.44902
7405.77 -252.54 252.54 0.033 63777.6995
7443.98 -291.69 291.69 0.038 85083.415
7482.19 -640.27 640.27 0.079 409940.032
7520.40
7558.61
7596.81
7635.02
7673.23
7711.44
7749.65
7787.86
7826.07
7864.27
7902.48
7940.69
N
ME 0.00
MAD 337.57
MAPE 0.05
MSE 174324.9
medidas de desempeño
METODO/
INDICADOR ME MAD MAPE MSE
SED -33.47 406.20 0.06 257335.6
RL 0.00 337.57 0.05 174324.86
Winters -22.23 326.44 0.05 186536.1
2018 DT POLLO
06.68051696061
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
E ENERO 2016 A DICIEMBRE 2018

Metodo seleccionado
SED α= 0.25
β= 0.35
So 6106.68
Gt 38.21
y=mx+b
pendiente (m) 38.209
intercepto (b) 6107
P
2016-2018 DT POLLO
9000.00
8000.00
7000.00
6000.00
f(x) = 38.2085643985252 x + 6106.680516
TONELADAS
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
Alfa 0.15 1000.00
Beta 0.25 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 92 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 93 0
Gama 0.25
MESES DE ENERO 2016 A DICIEMBRE 2018
S0 = corte de la recta de regresión 6106.680517
G0 = pendiente de la recta de regresión 38.2085644
ct = factores estacionales (recordar que tendré tantos factores estacionales

Para este caso en particular, se tendrán 12 factores estacionales iniciales, ya
Según la metodología expuesta en la cartilla:
I. II. III.
t Dt Yt Dt/Yt Promedio
1 5533.613 6144.9 0.9005229 1.00
2 5994.748 6183.1 0.9695379 0.94
3 6571.166 6221.3 1.0562357 1.01
4 6686.449 6259.5 1.0682057 1.00
5 6340.598 6297.7 1.006808 0.99
6 6686.449 6335.9 1.0553221 1.03
7 6917.016 6374.1 1.0851685 1.05
8 5879.464 6412.3 0.9168971 0.97
9 6225.315 6450.6 0.9650817 0.99
10 6628.807 6488.8 1.0215821 1.04
11 6917.016 6527.0 1.0597584 1.06
12 7262.867 6565.2 1.1062703 1.08
13 5980.514 6603.4 0.905673 0.95
14 6366.353 6641.6 0.9585571 0.98
15 6173.433 6679.8 0.9241931 0.98
16 6559.273 6718.0 0.9763703 0.99
17 6752.193 6756.2 0.999403
18 6848.653 6794.4 1.0079798
19 7041.572 6832.6 1.0305781
20 6945.113 6870.9 1.0108081
21 7330.952 6909.1 1.0610636
22 7427.412 6947.3 1.0691125
23 7427.412 6985.5 1.0632648
24 7234.492 7023.7 1.0300136
Nacional META 35% GRANJA

año pollo año pollo año
2016 1,478,924 2016 517,623 2016
2017 1,563,569 2017 547,249 2017
2018 1,629,648 2018 570,377 2018
PASO 3 y 4: actualizar
t Dt St Gt Ct
0.99
0.93
0.99
0.98
0.98
1.01
1.03
0.96
0.97
proporci 1.03
on por 1.05
demanda 0 6106.6805 38.208564 1.07
0.0713 1 5533.613 6061.58 17.38 0.97
0.0772 2 5994.748 6139.14 32.43 0.94
0.0846 3 6571.166 6237.51 48.91 1.01
0.0861 4 6686.449 6363.87 68.27 1.00
0.0817 5 6340.598 6439.45 70.10 0.98
0.0861 6 6686.449 6522.58 73.36 1.02
0.0891 7 6917.016 6611.34 77.21 1.04
0.0757 8 5879.464 6603.22 55.88 0.94
0.0802 9 6225.315 6618.21 45.66 0.97
0.0854 10 6628.807 6632.07 37.71 1.02
0.0891 11 6917.016 6657.24 34.57 1.05
0.0935 12 7262.867 6810.32 64.20 0.99
0.0729 13 5980.514 6799.78 45.51 0.92
0.0776 14 6366.353 6765.09 25.46 0.99
0.0752 15 6173.433 6698.12 2.36 0.98
0.0799 16 6559.273 6699.45 2.10 0.98
0.0823 17 6752.193 6692.68 -0.12 1.01
0.0834 18 6848.653 6680.27 -3.19 1.03
0.0858 19 7041.572 6795.41 26.39 0.97
0.0846 20 6945.113 6876.72 40.12 0.98
0.0893 21 7330.952 6956.92 50.14 1.03
0.0905 22 7427.412 7019.67 53.29 1.05
0.0905 23 7427.412 7132.11 68.08 1.01
0.0881 24 7234.492 7295.44 91.89 0.94
0.0705 25 6033.823 7191.71 42.99 0.95
0.0723 26 6188.537 7096.42 8.42 0.95
0.0796 27 6807.39 7081.36 2.55 0.98
0.0814 28 6962.104 7050.60 -5.78 1.01
0.0832 29 7116.817 7021.21 -11.68 1.03
0.0814 30 6962.104 7038.70 -4.39 0.97
0.0850 31 7271.531 7095.39 10.88 0.99
0.0850 32 7271.531 7100.55 9.45 1.03
0.0868 33 7426.244 7104.30 8.03 1.05
0.0895 34 7658.314 7186.98 26.69 1.02
0.0904 35 7735.671 7365.50 64.65 0.97
0.0949 36 8122.454 7593.18 105.41 0.98
37 6987.39 7643.32 91.59 0.94
38 7341.90 7704.06 83.88 0.97
39 7373.25 7717.15 66.18 0.99
40 7594.13 7723.51 51.22 1.02
41 7844.20 7818.93 62.27 0.98
42 7995.44 7911.58 69.87 0.99
43 7661.28 7902.56 50.15 1.01
44 7894.25 7888.74 34.15 1.04
45 8172.21 7934.89 37.15 1.02
46 8310.30 8064.16 60.18 0.98
47 8140.69 8148.32 66.18 0.99
48 7863.33 8232.49 70.67 0.95
PASO 1: Graficar
m= 3
POLLO N= 12
2 x + 6106.68051696061
1 92 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 93 03 13 23 33 43 53 6
DICIEMBRE 2018
PASO 2: Inicializar
antos factores estacionales iniciales como sea la longitud de mi estación)

res estacionales iniciales, ya que N es igual a 12
IV.
Promedio Normalizado
1.003 0.990
0.938 0.925
1.007 0.994
0.996 0.983
0.992 0.978
1.027 1.014
1.047 1.033
0.974 0.961
0.988 0.975
1.041 1.027
1.064 1.050
1.085 1.070
suma 12.16 12.00

15%
pollo
77643.51
82087.37
85556.52
PASO 3 y 4: actualizar So, Go y Ct y calcular los pronósticos Ft
Ft ET lETl lETl/DT E^2
6083.47 549.85 549.85245 0.0993658991 302337.72

5623.59 -371.16 371.15626 0.0619135755 137757
6134.23 -436.93 436.93296 0.066492458 190910.41
6178.94 -507.51 507.511 0.075901421 257567.42
6292.91 -47.68 47.684852 0.0075205602 2273.8451
6598.41 -88.04 88.038097 0.0131666439 7750.7065
6811.00 -106.01 106.01288 0.0153263882 11238.731
6425.96 546.50 546.49881 0.0929504478 298661
6491.02 265.70 265.70178 0.0426808582 70597.436
6846.62 217.81 217.81303 0.032858555 47442.518
7004.79 87.77 87.770038 0.0126890023 7703.5796
7162.17 -100.70 100.69599 0.0138644954 10139.682
6673.29 692.78 692.77505 0.1158387212 479937.27
6420.46 54.11 54.106296 0.0084987895 2927.4912
6850.55 677.12 677.11534 0.1096821328 458485.19
6699.47 140.19 140.19404 0.0213734118 19654.37
6567.03 -185.16 185.16083 0.027422325 34284.531
6803.12 -45.53 45.534236 0.0066486415 2073.3667
6917.54 -124.03 124.03281 0.0176143628 15384.139
6434.01 -511.10 511.09765 0.0735909806 261220.8
6683.24 -647.72 647.71556 0.0883535376 419535.45
7150.32 -277.09 277.08871 0.0373062257 76778.154
7408.41 -19.00 19.003113 0.0025585107 361.1183
7161.73 -72.76 72.759028 0.0100572404 5293.8761
6820.97 787.15 787.14619 0.1304556255 619599.13
7176.03 987.50 987.49824 0.1595689399 975152.78
6964.90 157.51 157.5101 0.0231381028 24809.431
6940.22 -21.89 21.888425 0.0031439383 479.10315
7147.76 30.94 30.942082 0.0043477416 957.41244
7243.02 280.92 280.91618 0.0403493237 78913.9
6798.11 -473.42 473.42491 0.0651066372 224131.14
6943.94 -327.59 327.5892 0.0450509276 107314.68 ME -22.23
7314.59 -111.65 111.65292 0.0150349107 12466.374 MAD 326.44
7468.59 -189.72 189.71998 0.0247730729 35993.669 MAPE 0.05
7259.44 -476.23 476.22796 0.0615625933 226793.07 MSE 186536.1
6987.39 -1135.07 1135.0661 0.1397442194 1288375
7341.90
7373.25
7594.13
7844.20
7995.44
7661.28
7894.25
8172.21
8310.30
8140.69
7863.33
8072.20
Nacional META 35% GRANJA
año cerdo año cerdo año
2016 356,611 2016 124813.85 2016
2017 371,347 2017 129971.45 2017
2018 410,270 2018 143594.5 2018
2019 367,408 2019 128592.8 2019

AÑOS dt(TONELAD
Mes ft ET IETI
AS)
1 479.91
2 916.98
3 1990.87
4 2243.16 1129.26 -1113.90 1113.90
5 809.21 1717.00 907.79 907.79
2016 6 2509.02 1681.08 -827.94 827.94
7 2150.81 1853.80 -297.01 297.01
8 1359.81 1823.01 463.20 463.20
9 1318.25 2006.55 688.30 688.30
10 1359.81 1609.62 249.81 249.81
11 2475.65 1345.96 -1129.69 1129.69
12 1108.59 1717.90 609.31 609.31
13 2916.77 1648.02 -1268.76 1268.76
14 581.94 2167.01 1585.06 1585.06
15 1540.20 1535.77 -4.43 4.43
16 3081.20 1679.64 -1401.57 1401.57
17 1399.71 1734.45 334.74 334.74
18 1508.67 2007.04 498.37 498.37
2017
19 553.21 1996.53 1443.32 1443.32
20 932.37 1153.86 221.49 221.49
21 935.58 998.08 62.50 62.50
22 2809.33 807.05 -2002.28 2002.28
23 2409.25 1559.09 -850.15 850.15
24 827.50 2051.38 1223.88 1223.88
25 519.57 2015.36 1495.78 1495.78
26 3033.24 1252.11 -1781.13 1781.13
27 1220.06 1460.10 240.05 240.05
28 3333.21 1590.96 -1742.25 1742.25
29 1085.61 2528.83 1443.22 1443.22
30 3288.39 1879.62 -1408.76 1408.76
2018
31 1734.21 2569.07 834.86 834.86
32 1703.47 2036.07 332.60 332.60
33 2952.42 2242.02 -710.40 710.40
34 1703.47 2130.03 426.56 426.56
35 1516.25 2119.79 603.53 603.53
36 2474.22 2057.38 -416.83 416.83
1 37 1946.11
2 38 2078.14
3 39 2045.13
4 40 2053.38
5 41 2051.32
6 42 2051.83
2019
7 43 2051.71
8 44 2051.74
9 45 2051.73
10 46 2051.73
11 47 2051.73
12 48 2051.73
N 3
ME -39.11
MAD 867.26
MAPE 0.65
MSE 1050068.6
cerdo 15% 10% 40% 1000

Proporcion por costillas de milnesa de
T FT chorizos otros
demanda cerdo cerdo
2019 37 2207582.64 331137.40 220758.26 883033.05 772653923

38 2188064.50 328209.67 218806.45 875225.80 765822575
39 2168546.36 325281.95 216854.64 867418.55 758991227
40 2149028.23 322354.23 214902.82 859611.29 752159879
41 2129510.09 319426.51 212951.01 851804.04 745328531
42 2109991.95 316498.79 210999.20 843996.78 738497183
43 2090473.82 313571.07 209047.38 836189.53 731665835
44 2070955.68 310643.35 207095.57 828382.27 724834487
45 2051437.54 307715.63 205143.75 820575.02 718003140
46 2031919.40 304787.91 203191.94 812767.76 711171792
47 2012401.27 301860.19 201240.13 804960.51 704340444
48 1992883.13 298932.47 199288.31 797153.25 697509096
total 8820978112
DEMANDA CARNE DE CERDO
15%
cerdo
18722.08
19495.72
21539.18
19288.92
ALFA 0.25
suavizacion exponencial siemple

IetI/ dt E^2 FT ET IETI
479.91
479.91 -437.08 437.08
589.18 -1401.70 1401.70
0.50 1240775.4 939.60 -1303.56 1303.56
1.12 824084.3 1265.49 456.28 456.28
0.33 685477.1 1151.42 -1357.60 1357.60
0.14 88217.2 1490.82 -659.99 659.99
0.34 214554.8 1655.82 296.00 296.00
0.52 473756.0 1581.82 263.57 263.57
0.18 62405.2 1515.92 156.11 156.11
0.46 1276210.0 1476.90 -998.76 998.76
0.55 371263.0 1726.59 617.99 617.99
0.43 1609741.3 1572.09 -1344.69 1344.69
2.72 2512418.1 1908.26 1326.31 1326.31
0.00 19.6 1576.68 36.48 36.48
0.45 1964386.9 1567.56 -1513.65 1513.65
0.24 112052.4 1945.97 546.26 546.26
0.33 248370.8 1809.40 300.74 300.74
2.61 2083173.8 1734.22 1181.01 1181.01
0.24 49058.2 1438.97 506.60 506.60
0.07 3906.7 1312.32 376.74 376.74
0.71 4009133.0 1218.13 -1591.20 1591.20
0.35 722761.0 1615.93 -793.31 793.31
1.48 1497894.3 1814.26 986.76 986.76
2.88 2237371.8 1567.57 1048.00 1048.00
0.59 3172437.6 1305.57 -1727.67 1727.67
0.20 57622.7 1737.49 517.43 517.43
0.52 3035429.8 1608.13 -1725.08 1725.08
1.33 2082893.9 2039.40 953.79 953.79
0.43 1984617.8 1800.95 -1487.44 1487.44
0.48 696988.3 2172.81 438.60 438.60
0.20 110621.2 2063.16 359.69 359.69
0.24 504663.5 1973.24 -979.18 979.18
0.25 181955.1 2218.03 514.56 514.56
0.40 364253.2 2089.39 573.14 573.14
0.17 173750.7 1946.11 -528.11 528.11
2078.14 132.03 132.03
2045.13
2053.38
2051.32
2051.83
2051.71
2051.74
2051.73
2051.73
2051.73
2051.73
2051.73
ME -182.65
MAD 837.29
MAPE 0.58
MSE 933752.6574
unidades a producir x kilogramos

costillas de cerdo chorizos otros
331137395.42 220758263.62 883033054.47

328209674.90 218806449.94 875225799.75
325281954.38 216854636.26 867418545.03
322354233.86 214902822.58 859611290.30
319426513.34 212951008.90 851804035.58
316498792.82 210999195.22 843996780.86
313571072.30 209047381.54 836189526.14
310643351.78 207095567.86 828382271.42
307715631.26 205143754.18 820575016.70
304787910.74 203191940.50 812767761.98
301860190.22 201240126.82 804960507.26
298932469.70 199288313.14 797153252.54
3780419190.77 2520279460.51 10081117842.06
2016-2018 DT
3500.00
3000.00
2500.00
TONELADAS
2000.00
1500.00
f(x) = 19.6002533944419
1000.00
500.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171
MESES DE ENERO DE 2016

ALFA 0.25
BETA 0.35
ponencial siemple
SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL DOBLE
IetI/ dt E^2 ST GT FT ET IETI

0 0.00 0.00
119.98 41.99 161.97 -317.94 317.94
0.48 191036.5155 350.72 108.06 458.78 -458.21 458.21
0.70 1964754.357 841.80 242.11 1083.92 -906.96 906.96
0.58 1699256.358 1373.73 343.55 1717.27 -525.88 525.88
0.56 208187.6165 1490.26 264.09 1754.35 945.14 945.14
0.54 1843066.652 1943.02 330.13 2273.14 -235.87 235.87
0.31 435586.2628 2242.56 319.42 2561.98 411.17 411.17
0.22 87618.60704 2261.44 214.23 2475.67 1115.86 1115.86
0.20 69468.70033 2186.31 112.96 2299.27 981.02 981.02
0.11 24370.64858 2064.41 30.75 2095.16 735.35 735.35
0.40 997513.7328 2190.28 64.05 2254.33 -221.32 221.32
0.56 381917.4454 1967.90 -36.21 1931.69 823.10 823.10
0.46 1808185.432 2177.96 49.99 2227.95 -688.82 688.82
2.28 1759107.976 1816.45 -94.04 1722.41 1140.47 1140.47
0.02 1331.132262 1676.86 -109.98 1566.88 26.68 26.68
0.49 2291121.683 1945.46 22.52 1967.98 -1113.22 1113.22
0.39 298404.7415 1825.91 -27.20 1798.71 399.01 399.01
0.20 90442.84948 1726.20 -52.58 1673.62 164.95 164.95
2.13 1394795.514 1393.52 -150.62 1242.90 689.70 689.70
0.54 256641.2703 1165.27 -177.79 987.48 55.11 55.11
0.40 141933.3713 974.50 -182.33 792.17 -143.40 143.40
0.57 2531918.418 1296.46 -5.83 1290.64 -1518.70 1518.70
0.33 629347.1187 1570.29 92.05 1662.34 -746.91 746.91
1.19 973696.2715 1453.63 19.00 1472.63 645.13 645.13
2.02 1098294.875 1234.37 -64.39 1169.98 650.40 650.40
0.57 2984841.026 1635.79 98.64 1734.44 -1298.80 1298.80
0.42 267734.6446 1605.84 53.64 1659.48 439.42 439.42
0.52 2975884.52 2077.91 200.09 2278.00 -1055.21 1055.21
0.88 909712.1719 1979.90 95.75 2075.66 990.04 990.04
0.45 2212469.207 2378.84 201.87 2580.71 -707.68 707.68
0.25 192370.9045 2369.08 127.80 2496.88 762.67 762.67
0.21 129375.8628 2298.53 58.38 2356.91 653.43 653.43
0.33 958796.9147 2505.79 110.48 2616.27 -336.15 336.15
0.30 264773.91 2388.07 30.61 2418.68 715.21 715.21
0.38 328488.6456 2193.08 -48.35 2144.73 628.47 628.47
0.21 278897.651 2227.10 -19.52 2207.58 -266.63 266.63
0.07 17431.10319 2207.58 261.47 261.47
2188.06 109.93 109.93
2168.55 123.42 123.42
2149.03 95.65 95.65
2129.51 78.19 78.19
2109.99 58.16 58.16
2090.47 38.77 38.77
2070.96 19.22 19.22
2051.44 -0.29 0.29
2031.92 -19.81 19.81
2012.40 -39.33 39.33
1992.88 -58.85 58.85
ME 67.52
MAD 653.17
MAPE 0.50
MSE 555026.16
METODO/
INDICADOR ME MAD MAPE MSE
PMS -39.11 867.26 65.03% 1050068.63
SES -182.65 837.29 105006862.69% 933752.66
SED 67.52 653.17 50.16% 555026.16 Metodo seleccionado
2016-2018 DT CERDO
19.6002533944419 x + 1381.33761868644
6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536
MESES DE ENERO DE 2016 A DICIEMBRE DE 2018
OBLE
IetI/ dt E^2
0.66 101085.00
0.50 209952.87
0.46 822571.47
0.23 276552.15
1.17 893284.64
0.09 55636.30
0.19 169062.22
0.82 1245138.86
0.74 962409.80
0.54 540737.64
0.09 48982.85
0.74 677494.90
0.24 474476.53
1.96 1300670.44
0.02 712.04
0.36 1239258.84
0.29 159207.14
0.11 27210.13
1.25 475680.59
0.06 3037.28
0.15 20564.12
0.54 2306439.29
0.31 557871.18
0.78 416193.19
1.25 423021.51
0.43 1686891.09
0.36 193090.90
0.32 1113462.80
0.91 980188.16
0.22 500813.96
0.44 581669.23
0.38 426976.06
0.11 112997.96
0.42 511527.61
0.41 394979.24
71093.90
68368.24
12084.20
15231.70
9148.34
6113.95
3382.34
1503.01
369.34
0.09
392.51
1546.82
3463.07
etodo seleccionado
Carne
Parametro Valor
Empleados 3
Producción/empleados 9
Costo de contratación $ 350,000
Costo de Despido $ 440,000
Costo de mantenimiento de inventarios $ 10,000
horas de trabajo 15
Materiales por unidad $ 100,000
shock semanal 10%
shock 20%
inventario inicial 280
costo de mano de obra $ 925,148
costo mano de obra por hora $ 3,450
Periodo (mes) 2019 pronostico

1 4011378
2 4011197
3 4011026
4 4010864
5 4010710
6 4010563
7 4010424
8 4010291
9 4010164
10 4010042
11 4009926
12 4009815
TOTAL 48126400

1 4,011,378
2 4,011,197
3 4,011,026
4 4,010,864
5 4,010,710
6 4,010,563
7 4,010,424
8 4,010,291
9 4,010,164
10 4,010,042
11 4,009,926
12 4,009,815
TOTAL 48,126,400
TIEMPO REQUERIDO 433,137,596

TRABAJADORES CONSTANTES 116,906
Unidades de Medida
Personas
horas operario/ton
por trabajador
por trabajador
/semana por kilo
horas
demanda semanal
Diciembre
unidades por Kg
SMLV MAS AUX DE TRASPORTE
hora salario minimo
FUERZA LABORAL VARIABLE

requerimiento de
Dias laborados Seguridad shock Inventario inicial produccion
21 401138 280 4,412,235
20 401120 401,138 4,011,179
20 401103 401,120 4,011,009
20 401086 401,103 4,010,848
22 401071 401,086 4,010,695
18 401056 401,071 4,010,549
22 401042 401,056 4,010,410
20 401029 401,042 4,010,277
21 401016 401,029 4,010,151
22 401004 401,016 4,010,030
20 400993 401,004 4,009,914
21 801963 801,963 4,009,815
247
FUERZA CONSTANTE
Dias laborados Trabajadores produccion inventario inicial

21 35 1,231 280
20 35 1,172 - 4,009,867
20 35 1,172 - 8,019,892
20 35 1,172 - 12,029,745
22 35 1,290 - 16,039,437
18 35 1,055 - 20,048,858
22 35 1,290 - 24,058,366
20 35 1,172 - 28,067,500
21 35 1,231 - 32,076,618
22 35 1,290 - 36,085,551
20 35 1,172 - 40,094,303
21 35 1,231 - 44,103,057
247
3705
BLE
inventario final
tiempo requerido7horas tiempo disponible Numero de trabajadores
401,138 39,710,119 315 126,064
401,120 36,100,613 300 120,335
401,103 36,099,082 300 120,330
401,086 36,097,630 300 120,325
401,071 36,096,251 330 109,383
401,056 36,094,938 270 133,685
401,042 36,093,688 330 109,375
401,029 36,092,496 300 120,308
401,016 36,091,358 315 114,576
401,004 36,090,270 330 109,364
400,993 36,089,230 300 120,297
801,963 36,088,334 315 114,566
mantenimiento de costo de produccion horas

inventario final inventario costo de materiales normales
- 4,009,867 -$ 40,098,667,291 $ 123,097,923 $ 10,249,541,770
- 8,019,892 -$ 80,198,915,977 $ 117,236,117 $ 9,761,468,352
- 12,029,745 -$ 120,297,454,865 $ 117,236,117 $ 9,761,468,352
- 16,039,437 -$ 160,394,371,638 $ 117,236,117 $ 9,761,468,352
- 20,048,858 -$ 200,488,575,040 $ 128,959,729 $ 10,737,615,187
- 24,058,366 -$ 240,583,657,326 $ 105,512,506 $ 8,785,321,517
- 28,067,500 -$ 280,674,998,853 $ 128,959,729 $ 10,737,615,187
- 32,076,618 -$ 320,766,181,637 $ 117,236,117 $ 9,761,468,352
- 36,085,551 -$ 360,855,507,640 $ 123,097,923 $ 10,249,541,770
- 40,094,303 -$ 400,943,033,333 $ 128,959,729 $ 10,737,615,187
- 44,103,057 -$ 441,030,570,048 $ 117,236,117 $ 9,761,468,352
- 48,111,641 -$ 481,116,408,660 $ 123,097,923 $ 10,249,541,770
$ 1,447,866,049 $ 120,554,134,148
costo de costo de
contratacion despido contratacion costo despido inventario
56 $ 19,600,000 $ - ###
- 120,279 $ - -$ 52,922,925,201 ###
5 $ - $ 2,244,394 ###
5 $ - $ 2,129,618 ###
10,943 $ 3,829,999,775 $ - ###
- 24,302 -$ 8,505,832,471 $ - ###
24,310 $ - $ 10,696,463,388 ###
- 10,934 -$ 3,826,727,594 $ - ###
5,733 $ - $ 2,522,335,469 ###
5,211 $ 350,000 $ 2,292,964,963 ###
- 10,933 -$ 3,826,542,068 $ - ###
5,731 $ 2,005,952,997 $ - ###
-$ 10,303,199,361 -$ 37,406,787,369 ###
Costo total
costo total
$ 122,002,000,197
costo de produccion
$ 60,858,000
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 12,458,442,124
-$ 22,637,665,563
$ -
-$ 11,316,180,169
$ -
$ -
-$ 11,315,631,545
$ 6,228,484,057
-$ 26,521,693,096
-$ 22,095,465,459
pollo
Parametro Valor
Empleados 2
Producción/empleados 9
Costo de contratación $ 350,000
Costo de Despido $ 440,000
Costo de mantenimiento de inventarios $ 7,000
horas de trabajo 15
Materiales por unidad $ 100,000
shock semanal 10%
shock 20%
inventario inicial 450
costo de mano de obra $ 925,148
costo mano de obra por hora $ 3,450

1 752,039,740
2 755,860,596
3 759,681,453
4 763,502,309
5 767,323,166
6 771,144,022
7 774,964,879
8 778,785,735
9 782,606,591
10 786,427,448
11 790,248,304
12 794,069,161
TOTAL -

1 752,039,740
2 755,860,596
3 759,681,453
4 763,502,309
5 767,323,166
6 771,144,022
7 774,964,879
8 778,785,735
9 782,606,591
10 786,427,448
11 790,248,304
12 794,069,161
TOTAL 9,276,653,405
TIEMPO REQUERIDO 83,489,880,642

TRABAJADORES CONSTANTES 22,534,381
ollo
Unidades de Medida
Personas
horas operario/ton
por trabajador
por trabajador
/semana por kilo
horas
demanda semanal
Diciembre
unidades por Kg
SMLV MAS AUX DE TRASPORTE
hora salario minimo

requerimiento de
Dias laborados Seguridad shock Inventario inicial produccion
21 75,203,974 280 827,243,434
20 75,586,060 75,203,974 756,242,682
20 75,968,145 75,586,060 760,063,538
20 76,350,231 75,968,145 763,884,395
22 76,732,317 76,350,231 767,705,251
18 77,114,402 76,732,317 771,526,108
22 77,496,488 77,114,402 775,346,964
20 77,878,574 77,496,488 779,167,821
21 78,260,659 77,878,574 782,988,677
22 78,642,745 78,260,659 786,809,534
20 79,024,830 78,642,745 790,630,390
21 158,813,832 158,813,832 794,069,161
247
FUERZA CONSTANTE
Dias laborados Trabajadores produccion inventario inicial

21 35 1,231 450
20 35 1,172 - 752,038,059
20 35 1,172 - 1,507,897,483
20 35 1,172 - 2,267,577,764
22 35 1,290 - 3,031,078,900
18 35 1,055 - 3,798,400,777
22 35 1,290 - 4,569,543,744
20 35 1,172 - 5,344,507,333
21 35 1,231 - 6,123,291,895
22 35 1,290 - 6,905,897,256
20 35 1,172 - 7,692,323,414
21 35 1,231 - 8,482,570,546
247
3705
COSTO DE MANO DE COSTO DE
OBRA INVENTARIO
PERSECUSION RES
NIVELACION RES
PERSECUSION CERDO
NIVELACION CERDO
PERSECUSION POLLO
NIVELACION POLLO
ORAL VARIABLE
inventario final tiempo requerido7horas tiempo disponible

75,203,974 7,445,190,906 315
75,586,060 6,806,184,138 300
75,968,145 6,840,571,846 300
76,350,231 6,874,959,554 300
76,732,317 6,909,347,262 330
77,114,402 6,943,734,970 270
77,496,488 6,978,122,678 330
77,878,574 7,012,510,386 300
78,260,659 7,046,898,094 315
78,642,745 7,081,285,802 330
79,024,830 7,115,673,510 300
158,813,832 7,146,622,447 315
CONSTANTE
mantenimiento de
inventario final inventario costo de materiales
- 752,038,059 -$ 5,264,266,412,940 $ 123,097,923
- 1,507,897,483 -$ 10,555,282,381,285 $ 117,236,117
- 2,267,577,764 -$ 15,873,044,344,709 $ 117,236,117
- 3,031,078,900 -$ 21,217,552,303,212 $ 117,236,117
- 3,798,400,777 -$ 26,588,805,436,141 $ 128,959,729
- 4,569,543,744 -$ 31,986,806,205,454 $ 105,512,506
- 5,344,507,333 -$ 37,411,551,328,541 $ 128,959,729
- 6,123,291,895 -$ 42,863,043,267,360 $ 117,236,117
- 6,905,897,256 -$ 48,341,280,790,931 $ 123,097,923
- 7,692,323,414 -$ 53,846,263,899,255 $ 128,959,729
- 8,482,570,546 -$ 59,377,993,823,311 $ 117,236,117
- 9,276,638,476 -$ 64,936,469,332,119 $ 123,097,923
$ 1,447,866,049
COSTOS COSTOTOTAL
DESPIDO/CONTRATAR
Numero de trabajadores contratacion despido costo de contratacion

23,635,527 56 $ 19,600,000
22,687,280 - 22,687,224 $ -
22,801,906 - 114,626 $ -
22,916,532 - 114,626 $ -
20,937,416 1,979,116 $ 692,690,565,511
25,717,537 - 4,780,121 -$ 1,673,042,343,198
21,145,826 4,571,711 $ -
23,375,035 - 2,229,208 -$ 780,222,913,042
22,371,105 1,003,930 $ -
21,458,442 912,663 $ 350,000
23,718,912 - 2,260,470 -$ 791,164,456,484
22,687,690 1,031,221 $ 360,927,487,048
- 16,428,172 -$ 2,190,791,710,165
costo de produccion horas

normales
$ 10,249,541,770
$ 9,761,468,352
$ 9,761,468,352
$ 9,761,468,352
$ 10,737,615,187
$ 8,785,321,517
$ 10,737,615,187
$ 9,761,468,352
$ 10,249,541,770
$ 10,737,615,187
$ 9,761,468,352
$ 10,249,541,770 costo total
$ 120,554,134,148 $ 122,002,000,197
costo despido costo de inventario costo de produccion
$ - $ 526,427,817,979 $ 60,858,000
-$ 9,982,378,763,119 $ 529,102,417,487 $ -
-$ 50,435,305,006 $ 531,777,016,995 $ -
-$ 50,435,305,006 $ 534,451,616,503 $ -
$ - $ 537,126,216,011 $ 2,253,223,453,813
$ - $ 539,800,815,519 -$ 4,452,682,693,396
$ 2,011,552,676,892 $ 542,475,415,027 $ -
$ - $ 545,150,014,535 -$ 2,307,230,614,283
$ 441,729,006,335 $ 547,824,614,043 $ -
$ 401,571,823,941 $ 550,499,213,550 $ -
$ - $ 553,173,813,058 -$ 2,339,586,321,317
$ - $ 1,111,696,825,133 $ 1,120,679,847,284
-$ 7,228,395,865,963 $ 7,049,505,795,841 -$ 5,725,535,469,898
suma total -$ 8,095,217,250,186
cerdo/chorizos
Parametro Valor Unidades de Medida
Empleados 2 Personas
Producción/empleados 9 horas operario/ton
Costo de contratación $ 350,000 por trabajador
Costo de Despido $ 440,000 por trabajador
Costo de mantenimiento de inve $ 8,000 /semana por kilo
horas de trabajo 15 horas
Materiales por unidad $ 100,000 confirmar
shock semanal 10% demanda semanal
shock 20% Diciembre
inventario inicial 600 unidades por Kg 15 horas trabajadas por 40 c
costo de mano de obra $ 925,148 SMLV MAS AUX DE TRASPORTE
costo mano de obra por hora $ 3,450 Hora salario minimo
FUER
Seguridad
shock
Periodo (mes) 2019 pronostico Dias laborados
1 2,207,583 21 220,758
2 2,188,064 20 218,806
3 2,168,546 20 216,855
4 2,149,028 20 214,903
5 2,129,510 22 212,951
6 2,109,992 18 210,999
7 2,090,474 22 209,047
8 2,070,956 20 207,096
9 2,051,438 21 205,144
10 2,031,919 22 203,192
11 2,012,401 20 201,240
12 1,992,883 21 398,577
TOTAL - 247
Periodo (mes) 2019 pronostico Dias laborados Trabajadores

1 2,207,583 21 35
2 2,188,064 20 35
3 2,168,546 20 35
4 2,149,028 20 35
5 2,129,510 22 35
6 2,109,992 18 35
7 2,090,474 22 35
8 2,070,956 20 35
9 2,051,438 21 35
10 2,031,919 22 35
11 2,012,401 20 35
12 1,992,883 21 35
TOTAL 25,202,795 247
TIEMPO REQUERIDO 226,825,151 3705

TRABAJADORES CONSTANT 61,221
horas trabajadas por 40 chorizos

Requerimient
Inventario tiempo requerido
o de Inventario final tiempo disponible
inicial 7 horas
produccion
600 2,427,741 220,758 21,849,668 315
220,758 2,186,113 218,806 19,675,014 300
218,806 2,166,595 216,855 19,499,351 300
216,855 2,147,076 214,903 19,323,688 300
214,903 2,127,558 212,951 19,148,024 330
212,951 2,108,040 210,999 18,972,361 270
210,999 2,088,522 209,047 18,796,698 330
209,047 2,069,004 207,096 18,621,035 300
207,096 2,049,486 205,144 18,445,372 315
205,144 2,029,968 203,192 18,269,708 330
203,192 2,010,449 201,240 18,094,045 300
398,577 1,992,883 398,577 17,935,948 315
FUERZA CONSTANTE
inventario mantenimiento de
produccion inicial inventario final inventario costo de materiales
1,231 600 - 2,205,752 -$ 17,646,013,255 $ 123,097,923
1,172 - 2,205,752 - 4,392,644 -$ 35,141,150,361 $ 117,236,117
1,172 - 4,392,644 - 6,560,018 -$ 52,480,142,372 $ 117,236,117
1,172 - 6,560,018 - 8,707,874 -$ 69,662,989,289 $ 117,236,117
1,290 - 8,707,874 - 10,836,094 -$ 86,688,753,222 $ 128,959,729
1,055 - 10,836,094 - 12,945,031 -$ 103,560,247,839 $ 105,512,506
1,290 - 12,945,031 - 15,034,215 -$ 120,273,721,584 $ 128,959,729
1,172 - 15,034,215 - 17,103,999 -$ 136,831,988,123 $ 117,236,117
1,231 - 17,103,999 - 19,154,205 -$ 153,233,640,623 $ 123,097,923
1,290 - 19,154,205 - 21,184,835 -$ 169,478,679,084 $ 128,959,729
1,172 - 21,184,835 - 23,196,064 -$ 185,568,510,340 $ 117,236,117
1,231 - 23,196,064 - 25,187,716 -$ 201,501,727,557 $ 123,097,923
$ 1,447,866,049
Numero de costo de
contratacion Despido costo despido
trabajadores contratacion
69,364 56 $ 19,600,000 $ -
65,583 - 65,527 $ - -$ 28,832,047,451
64,998 586 $ - $ 257,639,406
64,412 586 $ - $ 257,639,406
58,024 6,388 $ 2,235,791,517 $ -
70,268 - 12,244 -$ 4,285,290,806 $ -
56,960 13,308 $ - $ 5,855,658,011
62,070 - 5,110 -$ 1,788,648,747 $ -
58,557 3,513 $ - $ 1,545,887,578
55,363 3,194 $ 350,000 $ 1,405,352,343
60,313 - 4,951 -$ 1,732,755,901 $ -
56,940 3,374 $ 1,180,887,958 $ -
-$ 4,370,065,978 -$ 19,509,870,708
costo de produccion
horas normales
$ 10,249,541,770
$ 9,761,468,352
$ 9,761,468,352
$ 9,761,468,352
$ 10,737,615,187
$ 8,785,321,517
$ 10,737,615,187
$ 9,761,468,352
$ 10,249,541,770
$ 10,737,615,187
$ 9,761,468,352
$ 10,249,541,770 costo total
$ 120,554,134,148 $ 122,002,000,197
costo de inventario costo de produccion
$ 1,766,066,109 $ 60,858,000
$ 1,750,451,599 $ -
$ 1,734,837,090 $ -
$ 1,719,222,581 $ -
$ 1,703,608,071 $ 7,272,710,407
$ 1,687,993,562 -$ 11,404,995,388
$ 1,672,379,052 $ -
$ 1,656,764,543 -$ 5,289,289,866
$ 1,641,150,033 $ -
$ 1,625,535,524 $ -
$ 1,609,921,015 -$ 5,124,006,735
$ 3,188,613,010 $ 3,666,657,111
$ 21,756,542,189 -$ 10,818,066,471
suma total -$ 12,941,460,968
objetivos especificos brayan
linea de tendencia jorge
cuadros analisis de los pronosticos
pronostico 2019 jorge
planeacion agregada jorge

ENTREGA FINAL Winters Pollo

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ENTREGA FINAL Winters Pollo

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Nacional 100% META

año carne año

Carne de res 30% 8%

T ft carne para asar sobrebarriga

37 4011377.71 1203413.31 320910.22

44 4010290.64 1203087.19 320823.25

35% GRANJA 15%

carne año carne

promedio movil simple N=3

ET IETI IetI/ dt E^2

1127.50 1127.50 0.37 1271251.86

5% 15% 25% 1000

cadera hueso otros carne para asar unidades

200568.89 601706.7 1002844.43 1203413312.50

suavizacion exponencial simple

unidades a producir x kilogramo

sobrebarriga unidades cadera unidades hueso unidades otros unidades

320910216.67 200568885.42 601706656.25 1002844427.08

MESES DE ENERO DE 2016 A DICIEMBRE DE

457650.66951 FAMILIA ENERO FEBRERO

PMS 41.89 1842.45

SES 221.86 1936.86

PRONOSTICOS 2019 EN KILOGRAMOS

69.88% 4352142 Metodo seleccionado

suavizacion exponencial doble

pollo KILOGRAMOS 10% 50%

Patrones de serie de tiempo: Demanda con tendencia (lineal creciente)

El comportamiento de la demanda muestra una tendencia lineas

suavizacion exponencial doble

15% 25% 1000 unidades a producir x kilogramos

hueso otros Alas Pechuga hueso otros

1128059.61 1880099.35 752039740 3760198699.85 1128059609.96 1880099349.93

MESES DE ENERO 2016 A DICIEMBRE 2018

ft ET IETI IetI/ dt E^2

6144.89 611.28 611.28 0.110 373658.222

E ENERO 2016 A DICIEMBRE 2018

S0 = corte de la recta de regresión 6106.680517

G0 = pendiente de la recta de regresión 38.2085644

ct = factores estacionales (recordar que tendré tantos factores estacionales

Nacional META 35% GRANJA

antos factores estacionales iniciales como sea la longitud de mi estación)

suma 12.16 12.00

PASO 3 y 4: actualizar So, Go y Ct y calcular los pronósticos Ft

Ft ET lETl lETl/DT E^2

6083.47 549.85 549.85245 0.0993658991 302337.72

2017 371,347 2017 129971.45 2017

2018 410,270 2018 143594.5 2018

2019 367,408 2019 128592.8 2019

promedio movil simple N=3

cerdo 15% 10% 40% 1000

2019 37 2207582.64 331137.40 220758.26 883033.05 772653923

suavizacion exponencial siemple

IetI/ dt E^2 FT ET IETI

unidades a producir x kilogramos

331137395.42 220758263.62 883033054.47

MESES DE ENERO DE 2016

IetI/ dt E^2 ST GT FT ET IETI

MESES DE ENERO DE 2016 A DICIEMBRE DE 2018

Periodo (mes) 2019 pronostico

Periodo (mes) 2019 pronostico

TIEMPO REQUERIDO 433,137,596

FUERZA LABORAL VARIABLE

Dias laborados Trabajadores produccion inventario inicial

mantenimiento de costo de produccion horas