Prevision 09

SITM ANNUAL TELECOM FORECAST 2009
SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF TELECOM MANAGEMENT

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Prévision - SITM Annual Telecom Forecast 2009
I
Volume V, Issue I NDEX
Prévision - SITM Annual Telecom Forecast provides a holistic and
equitable view of the forthcoming developments in the telecom
sector taking into account all the macro and micro economic
factors. The essence of this forecast report lies in the fact that it DIRECTOR’S MESSAGE 3
keeps us in sync with the changing dynamics of the telecom
ecosystem which is transforming itself and has already stepped into EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
third generation technologies.
METHODOLOGY 6
Faculty In Charge
Giri Hallur ECONOMY 8
Faculty (Telecom), SITM
GLOBAL TELECOM 13
Alumni Mentors Industry Mentors
Kundan Das Sumant S. V.

INDIAN TELECOM 18
Starent Networks Deloitte Haskins & Sells
TELECOM TECHNOLOGIES 21
Manish Juneja Anantalakshmi Prasad
Infosys Technologies Deloitte Haskins & Sells MOBILITY 24
Aniruddha Harne Statistical Consultant BROADBAND 27

Tech Mahindra Asmita Chitnis
Associate Professor, TELECOM SOFTWARE 30
Rahul Sharma Symbiosis Institute of
Tech Mahindra International Business
COMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE 34
Anand Raghav Student In Charge
Ernst & Young Malcolm Patel CONSUMER ELECTRONICS 38
Santosh S V Student In Charge SPECIAL FEATURE - CONVERGENCE 42

Ernst & Young (Technology)
Ananda LIST OF FIGURES 46
Rajeev Jha
Tata Communications Student In Charge ABBREVIATIONS 47
(Statistics)
Sourabh Sharma Rohit Mahto
HCL Technologies
REFERENCES 47
Student In Charge
Harish C (Marketing) ABOUT SITM 48
Hewlett Packard Ravi Vasnani
TEAM PREVISION 49
Graphic Designer
Rohit Mahto
ONLINE PARTNERS MEDIA PARTNERS

Disclaimer:
In no event shall Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune; hereafter
referred to as SITM, be liable for any indirect, punitive, incidental, special or
consequential damages arising out of or in any way with any content (or any
material provided here under) whether biased or on contract, tort, strict liability or
otherwise even if SITM has been advised of the possibility of the damages.
© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management.

All rights reserved
This document is the sole property of SITM. No part of it maybe circulated, quoted,
copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of SITM.
DIRECTOR’S MESSAGE
SITM is the first educational institution in Asia

imparting management education to aspiring
telecom managers. SITM has consistently
endeavored to take up new initiatives in both
business and research domains.
One such effort is Prévision, SITM's Annual

Telecom Forecast. Prévision is in its 6th year
and aims at providing the industry a neutral
and insightful single point of view regarding
the emerging trends in the telecom sector for
the forthcoming year.
This involves accumulating inputs from

detailed research into contemporary telecom
technologies, telecom business and other
determinants of change and meticulously
analyzing them and forecasting future
trends.
It is the only effort of its kind in the telecom

domain being attempted by a business
school, which provides comprehensive
We th an k D eloitte coverage over various domains in the
telecom sphere. It is a culmination of the
Has kin s an d S ells fo r collective endeavor of SITM students with
th eir con tin u ed 1500 man hours of efforts put in by them. The
student forecast team is guided by the SITM
a llian ce an d s u ppor t in faculty and some of our esteemed alumni.
ou r effor ts
We are fortunate to have Deloitte Haskins &
Sells for their continued initiatives in both
business and research domains. Through
this publication I would like to inform you that
we have moved to our new 300 acre campus
at Lavale, Pune.
Virender Kapoor
Director
Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management
© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune

3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ECONOMY GLOBAL TELECOM

The economies of India, Russia and China are In the global scenario, Western Europe will see a
expected to spearhead the global economic growth, huge variance as far as IPTV deployment and
reeling under the effects of US slowdown, surging oil uptake is concerned. France will see the highest
prices and inflation. The recent surge in oil prices to signups and Germany should see the least. In
successive new highs continues to constitute a key North America, growth of the MVNO market will
risk that could impinge on the global economic stabilize as MVNO players will start cost-cutting
growth momentum in the period ahead though the oil measures to retain their margins. Femtocell based
prices are expected to move southwards. The US solutions will also get deployed to optimize an
economy is expected to grow at a rate of less than operators CAPEX. In South America, there will be
1%, in the process adversely affecting the other introduction of next-generation mobile broadband
dependent economies. The Indian economy services, including high-speed mobile internet
continues to display strength, both in regard to access, mobile TV and video, and mobile-music-
external trade and domestic demand, though the related services. In Asia, Japan and South Korea
growth is expected to decline to 7.6-7.8% on are the leading 3G markets. However, China, which
account of lower industrial growth, high crude oil is still striving to make its place on the 3G map, will
prices and inflation. The Government is expected to emerge as the big market, thanks to the 2008
tighten the monetary policies to curb inflation. Beijing Olympics.
INDIAN TELECOM TELECOM TECHNOLOGIES

India outpacing China in net telephone subscriber The IP/MPLS edge market is expected to grow
additions per month shows the growth for this sector. continuously with the availability of high end
Fixed line subscriber base will witness continuous technology and low cost infrastructure. It is
marginal monthly reductions which will lead to a estimated that global market for carrier Ethernet
base of 36.24 mn at the end of Dec'09 resulting in a equipment will reach around $3.9 bn mark by 2010
percentage decrease of 6.23% over July'08. Mobile at a CAGR of 33%. As fixed line substitution and
subscriber base is expected to reach a milestone of general shift towards mobile continues, broadband
412.25 mn with a growth of 54% over July'08. The value added services and increased capacity will
total subscriber base is expected to reach 448.6 mn become drivers for fixed line service providers to
witnessing a growth of 33.97% over July'08. upgrade to ADSL 2+. This will result in further
Upcoming services like 3G and MNP are sure to deployments of ADSL cables in India. As India
drive the growth for the Indian telecom sector. awaits the roll out of 3G due to delay in auction of
3G spectrum, the natural path for evolution of GSM
players will be WCDMA.

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MOBILITY TELECOM SOFTWARE
On the mobility front, India is growing at a very Today the Telecom Software market is driven by
fast pace, we expect the mobile subscriber base three major aspects CRM, Revenue Assurance
to cross 412.12 million and an overall and ERP. Marketing automation is expected to
Teledensity of 38% by the end of 2009, where A, be the fastest growing segment of CRM,
B, C and METRO circles are expected to be achieving an 11.2 percent CAGR through 2009.
covering 35%, 40% 12% and 13% of the NGOSS, or Next Generation OSS, will be an
subscriber base respectively. The current MVAS answer for a comprehensive, integrated
market (as of June 2008) is Rs 5780 crores and it framework for developing, procuring and
is expected to rise upto Rs. 9760 crores. We deploying operational and business support
predict that the SMS volumes would cross the systems and Software. The worldwide market
140 million mark in 2009 and in the near future for Enterprise Applications is expected to grow to
will see more and more SMS based utility $36 billion by 2009.
applications. He number of Wireless internet
subscribers grew from 18 mn in 2006 to 57.83
mn by 2007 end; we predict that the wireless COMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE
internet subscriber base will cross 130 mn mark Infrastructure sharing has helped the telcos to
by first quarter of 2009. reduce their capital expenditure and operating
expenses. Due to increasing focus on
accelerated roll-out of services in rural and semi-
BROADBAND urban areas, approximately 85000-90000
The year of broadband as it was called did not towers are expected to be set up in the next fiscal
come up to expectations due to facts like low year. EVDO technology will be one of the prime
penetration issues, cost of CPE, huge Capex for drivers for the Data card market. The VSAT
deployment etc. but the upward move has just industry is expected to record a growth of 20% to
started. Although slowly but the broadband is 25% in the current fiscal year. Price wars are
picking up and it is expected to change the way expected due to entry of new DTH players which
communication and information is used will attract new customers.
currently. With operators like BSNL planning to
bridge the digital divide by covering
approximately 1.5 lakh villages and 5000 cities CONVERGENCE
by next year it is expected that broadband riding The market for traditional telephony, whether
on technologies like WIMAX and VSAT will be fixed or mobile, is so saturated that it can no
next big thing in the communication and the total longer be a viable exclusive source of growth.
subscriber base is expected to reach above 8.5 On the other hand, telecom-media convergence
million subscribers by the end of second quarter has brought about opportunities that could be
next year. considerable but that are fraught with
uncertainty. Telecom operators in the future will
have to battle with a wide array of new
CONSUMER ELECTRONICS competitors, including traditional media
Consumer Electronics refers to a wide range of companies, information technology players, and
electronic equipments intended for everyday even industries such as financial services.
use. These include Mobile Handsets, Laptops, Differentiation has become more challenging,
Desktops, Digital Cameras and Gaming with technology being largely commoditized and
Consoles. We predict 2008 will be the first year accessible to all players in the market. To
when sales of laptops will exceed the sales of address this challenge, many operators will
desktops. Innovations in technology and falling leverage telecom-media convergence to
prices are expected to further enhance the develop a unique and sustainable competitive
growth of Consumer Electronics. advantage in their markets. While there is no
silver bullet for success, operators that are able
to move quickly and capture the currently
underexploited content market will create a
sustainable competitive advantage in their
markets and possibly beyond.

5
3
METHODOLOGY
Prévision - SITM Annual Telecom Forecast is in its 6th year, initiated in the year 2003, with the purpose
of providing the industry a neutral and insightful single point of view regarding the emerging trends in
the telecom sector for the forthcoming year, after accumulating inputs from detailed research into
contemporary telecom technologies, telecom business and other determinants of change.
Prévision is a culmination of the collective endeavor of SITM students with 1500 man hours of efforts
put in by them. The student forecast team is guided by the SITM faculty and some of our esteemed
alumni. It is the only effort of its kind in the telecom domain at this level, which provides comprehensive
coverage over various domains in the telecom sphere.
STATISTICAL MODELS USED FOR FORECASTING
Time Series Analysis

A time series is a sequence of data points, measured typically at successive times, spaced at (often
uniform) time intervals. Time series analysis comprises of methods that attempt to understand such
time series. Time series forecasting is the use of a model to forecast future events based on known
past events: to forecast future data points before they are measured.
Exponential Smoothing
In statistics, exponential smoothing refers to a particular type of moving average technique applied to
time series data, either to produce smoothed data for presentation or to make forecasts.

6
Extrapolation
This model statistically extrapolates established pattern and/or existing relationship in order to predict
their continuation, assuming that such pattern relationship will not change during the forecasting
phase.
Linear Extrapolation
Linear extrapolation means creating a tangent line at the end of the known data and extending it
beyond that limit.
Polynomial Extrapolation
A polynomial curve can be created through the entire known data or just near the end. The resulting
curve can then be extended beyond the end of the known data. The resulting polynomial may be used
to extrapolate the data.
Trend Analysis
When a series of measurements of a process is treated as a time series, trend estimation is the
application of statistical techniques to make and justify statements about trends in the data.
Regression Analysis
Data regression analysis is a technique used for the modeling and analysis of numerical data
consisting of values of a dependent variable (response variable) and of one or more independent
variables (explanatory variables).
Linear Regression, y = a(x) + b
Non-Linear Regression, log(y) = log(a) + x*log(b)

7
3
ECONOMY
SCOPE
Globalization is transforming the face of the global economy. The economies of the nations are
interdependent on each other more than ever before. This vertical aims to analyze, forecast the
growth rates of the various economies and the prominent growth drivers which are expected to
significantly influence the economy.
ANALYSIS
GLOBAL ECONOMY FED RATES
EXCHANGE RATES Fed rates will remain on hold for a prolonged

period. Continuous write downs by big US
YEN Vs DOLLAR financial institutions and their incapability to
raise more capital will force the Federal Bank
The slowdown in the Japanese economy to keep the rates at the current levels so that
coupled with high inflation and decreased fund raising exercises can be augmented.
growth of exports are likely to put pressure on Key policy rates for the Federal Bank are
Yen. USD/JPY rates are expected to remain expected to remain at current levels till the
in the range of 104-109 till the 3rd quarter of first quarter of the year 2009-10.
2008-09 and they are expected to weaken
further in 1st quarter of 2009-10. CRUDE OIL
EURO Vs DOLLAR Rising crude oil prices have been a worry for
the entire world. Oil Prices along with food
European economies are struggling with the prices is putting economies under severe
threat of impending recession and along with inflationary pressures. Oil is always at the
the prospects of high headline inflation. The center of world polity and economy. The oil
fear of high inflation may push the European demand in the growing economies like China,
Central Bank to further tightening of monetary India and others are likely to put more
policy. But US and EU economies are very pressure on the supply and we expect the oil
highly integrated which may not allow the prices to be in the range of $95-105 per barrel
st
EURO to depreciate in a significant way in the by the end of 1 quarter of 2009-2010.
near future. Hence EURO is expected to
show sideways movement in the near future REGIONAL ANALYSIS
but in the long run it is expected to depreciate
against the US dollar. USA
EUR/USD rates are expected to remain in the Continuous weakening of US financial

range of 1.38-1.48 in the near future but in the system and recessionary environment in the
1st or 2nd quarter of year 2009-10 it is key industrial sectors is going to keep the US
expected to be in the range of 1.37-1.41. GDP growth rates at a negligible level.
Furthermore, the slowdown in the housing
sector is expected to spread to the other key
38 © 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune

sectors such as aviation, FMCG and finance. LATIN AMERICA
Low employment growth rate and negligible
growth in the average salaries is going to cut MEXICO
the consumer spending in a major way. All
these factors are expected to impact US GDP Although domestic demand will become
growth rate adversely and we expect the more important (assuming further gradual
GDP to grow by 0.8%. deepening of domestic credit), Mexico's
growth path will continue to be dependent on
CANADA the US economic cycle, given strong links
between US and Mexican industry. This has
As the US slowdown continues, export effects not only on gross fixed investment and
volumes will stagnate and is expected to exports, but on employment, wages and
push the current account into a deficit. The private consumption. Inflation is expected to
stock market has fallen sharply, triggered by be significantly higher at the end of 2008 than
falling oil prices and fears over Canadian the target ceiling rate of 4%. All the above
banks' exposure to the depressed US retail stated parameters are expected to pull down
banking sector. We expect the GDP to grow the growth to 2.2-2.5%.
by 1% due to the resurgent inflation,
concerns about a slump in the housing
market and the above stated factors.
EUROPE
EUROPEAN UNION
Economic outlook in Europe is deemed,

however, to be affected by shrinking credit
availability, soaring food and oil prices and
the volatile economic performance of US in
the short term. Taking into account negative VENEZUELA
impact of the financial markets turmoil in the
summer of 2007, soaring commodity prices The government is unlikely to move towards
and housing market shocks we expect 1.5- full state control of the economy, but further
2% growth in the GDP which is higher than nationalization in “strategic” sectors will curb
those of the other prominent economies like private investment. Venezuela is at the peak
the US and Japan. The growth however is of another oil-fuelled boom. In the past, these
unequal in the various member nations with have been followed by spectacular crashes
the global slowdown affecting a major as oil price falls however, with world oil prices
number of nations. expected to remain high for a prolonged
period, the economic cycle is likely to prove to
UNITED KINGDOM be more drawn out and we expect the GDP to
grow by 5.5%.
With developments in global financial
markets curbing growth in the UK's important BRIC
financial services sector and tightening credit
conditions for firms and households, The group of nations Brazil, Russia, India and
domestic demand growth will slow sharply. China popularly referred to as BRIC is one of
The decline in the economic activity, rising the fastest growing economies.
inflation due to food and non-alcoholic
beverages and decline in the output growth in Brazilian economy is expected to decline on
the services sector by 0.8% in the first quarter account of stronger monetary tightening
of 2008 is indicative of the slow growth and which will weigh on domestic consumption
we expect the economy to grow by 1.8%. growth, which, coupled with the effect of
© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 3

9
sluggish growth in the US will pull the food prices stabilize, offsetting rising non-
economy down to growth rate in the range agricultural prices. The consumer price inflation
4.6-5%. GDP grew by 5.4% in 2007, the in China is expected to average 6.6% in 2008.
fastest pace of expansion since 2004, but is The annual rate of inflation is expected to slow in
expected to decelerate over the projection the second half of 2008 giving a timely boost to
period. Private consumption continued to be the decelerating economic growth. Real GDP
the main driver, aided by improving labor- growth slowed to 10.1% year on year in the
market conditions and still robust credit second quarter of 2008, largely owing to a
creation. Investment rebounded strongly, smaller contribution from net exports. We expect
helping to alleviate emerging capacity the GDP to grow by 10% on account of the
constraints. Exports are performing well and above mentioned factors.
the trade surplus is shrinking fast due
essentially to rising imports, especially of JAPAN
capital goods and intermediate inputs.
Japanese economy is struggling with the
slowdown in the GDP growth and high inflation.
Despite a stronger than expected GDP outturn
in the first quarter of 2008, Japan's economic
outlook is weak. Central bank of Japan is
continuously avoiding key interest hikes to
support the growth. Continued rise of exports
from emerging Asian economies is expected to
hamper the Japanese exports further. We
expect the Japanese economy to grow by 1%.
VISTA NATIONS
Russia's economic growth in 2007 was In Vietnam very high inflation rate expected to be
fueled by much higher oil prices. Real GDP in the range of 20% and above along with lower
growth of Russia is expected to slow in 2008- credit expansion will offset the growth by
09 to 7.2% as a result of stagnating oil industrial expansion and the growth is expected
production, high inflation, monetary to be in the range of 6.5-7%.
tightening and ongoing real currency Massive foreign direct investment and solid
appreciation. Nevertheless, continued strong private consumption growth will offset the
private demand growth should support a solid inflationary trends in Indonesia and we expect
rate of expansion. High oil prices, capital the GDP to grow by 5.5%.
inflows and the effects of an earlier fiscal
relaxation are feeding inflationary pressures. The South African growth will be on the lower
Inflation should abate from the second half of side as global slowdown, high interest rates will
2008, as a result of a good harvest and a pull down the economy even as the investment
tightening of monetary policy activity gathers momentum. The power
shortages are also expected to adversely affect
Economic growth in China has eased the economy and the GDP is expected to grow
slightly, to 10.6% year-on-year in the first by 3%.
quarter of 2008. It is expected to slacken
further over the remainder of 2008 and in In Turkey the business sector's successful post-
2009, as the contribution from net exports crisis performance and employment creation
declines. Domestic demand growth is capacity has come under strain, independently
projected to remain robust over the forecast from the domestic and international shocks of
horizon, with buoyant incomes driving up early 2008. Mounting competition from low-cost
consumption. Inflation has increased sharply, countries and strong trend real currency
driven by soaring food prices, but is expected appreciation has severely weakened the trade-
to ease somewhat going forward provided exposed sector. Domestic demand is expected
to be the only saving grace but the above stated
10
factors along with a high inflation hovering INDIAN ECONOMY
around 10% is likely to bring down the GDP
growth to 4.5%.
GDP
Argentina's strong growth rates over the past
few years are expected to moderate over the India's macroeconomic parameters are
foreseeable future and without a coherent displaying ominous signs regarding the pace of
plan to shield the general public from the fall- growth of Indian GDP. Due to high inflation, RBI
out, political instability could return to is continuously adjusting the monetary policy
Argentina over the medium term. Also the which has resulted in high interest rates. High
increasing inflation and slower investment crude oil prices, increasing trade deficit,
scenario is expected to bring the GDP growth increasing fiscal deficit, high interest rates, high
to 6%. inflation, low IIP growth, increased Government
spending, uncertain export growth environment
due to weaker US, Europe & Japanese
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA economies, their dwindling corporate profits,
reduced general and public savings and hence
In UAE, persistently high global oil prices will shrinking investment cycle are the factors which
maintain the current account surplus which are expected to hurt Indian GDP growth in a
will further be facilitated by robust growth in significant way. Thus we expect the GDP to grow
non oil sector though political instability with by 7.6-7.8%.
change in power from Abu Dhabi (oil wealth)
to Dubai (FDI) and steep inflation may cause
some problem. We expect the GDP to grow
by 8.3%.
Nigeria is expected to witness a very high FDI

in oil sector (US$2bn per year) and
exceptionally high export earnings from oil. A
very attractive and promising telecom sector
will be the key driver for growth and we expect
the GDP to be 6.5%.
Tourism sector of Egypt will be the key driver
for growth. The tourism sector revenues and
receipts from Suez Canal will offset the large INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
trade deficit but the inflation (22%) will bring
down the public spending and we expect the Industrial sector (IIP Growth) recorded a growth
economy to grow by 6.6-7%. of 11.6% in 2006-07 and 8.8% in the year 2007-
08. For the April-July period, IIP growth stood at
Fluctuation in the world prices of chief exports 5.7%, which confirms the figures of slowing
of Kenya (tea and coffee) may create growth. Due to high inflation, rising interest
tremendous impact on economy. Though rates and rising raw material costs the industrial
Kenya has emerged as an attractive sector growth is expected to be further
destination for investment but political unrest suppressed . High global commodity prices are
and shortage in power production and further expected to pressurize industries with
corruption in public sector are a very serious high import content. Manufacturing output
threat to growth in the economy. Hence we slowed to 5.3 per cent from 11.8 per cent during
are predicting a 4.8% growth. the same period. The consumer durable goods
and capital goods are the factors which are
keeping the industrial sector on the right track
which is reeling under the effect of slow growth
of the six infrastructure industries. Thus we
foresee a 6.5% growth in the industrial sector.

SERVICES SECTOR further. Inflation is expected to remain
between 11-13% till December 2008 and it
Service sector recorded growth of 11.1% in may come down to the level of 9-9.5% by the
the year 2006-07 and it stood at 10.8% in the month of April 2009.It is expected to stabilize
year 2007-08. Due to impending recession in in the band of 7.5-8.5% by the month of
US and European region, IT-ITES services September 2009.
are expected to struggle in the year 2008-09.
Impending slowdown in general business MONETARY POLICY
activity and high inflation is going to affect the
purchasing power of general public in India RBI is expected to continue its monetary
which may adversely affect the service sector tightening exercise up till the 4th quarter of
growth in India. Service sector growth is 2008-09. Inflation is continuously hovering
expected to be in the range of 9.25-9.5% in above the RBI`s bearable limit of 5.5-6.5%
the year 2008-09. and it is expected to remain same in the near
future also. Further high fiscal deficit of
INFLATION Central Government is expected to created
pressure on the fund raising exercise of RBI.
Currently inflation is running at a 13 years CRR is expected to increase to the level of
high of 12.44 %( 15/08/08). High Government 9.5-9.75% from the current level of 9% and
spending due to farm loan waiver and Repo Rate is expected to be further raised to
implementation of sixth pay commission the level of 9.5% uptill the 4th quarter of 2008-
report, huge amount of under recoveries on 09.
account of fuel, food and fertilizer subsidy are
expected to flare up the aggregate demand
CONCLUSION
The global economic scenario is on a trace of recession, but it is expected to stabilize due to
decrease in the crude oil prices and inflation. The global economy is also expected to ride on the
growth of the emerging economies like China, India and others. The continued rise of
developing economies on the world stage will provide substantial potential opportunities for
already developed economies with, amongst other things, new markets for their exporters and
investors.
3
GLOBALTELECOM
SCOPE
Telecommunications is a burgeoning sector and this phenomenon has not gone unnoticed. Its
driven by the fact that it is becoming a need and not a want for people and their businesses .The
objective of our research is to study the prevailing telecom business environment in various
regions viz. North America, South America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Middle East,
Africa and APAC.
ANALYSIS
WESTERN EUROPE Belgium, however, are exceptions. That said,
things there would change due to wireless
As Western European markets are mature broadband's higher growth. Some major
and fully saturated in the voice and text trends can be observed in the future are
segments, there are only a limited number of mentioned below:
players and limited opportunities available to
them. The macro-level market trends driving - The region's mobile broadband
carriers to outsource network operations penetration is very significant as
include hyper-competitive markets, broadband moves from fixed locations to
increasing focus on operational efficiency, mobile ones, and could spread this trend
greater service velocity and the desire to to other regions.
focus on differentiated parts of the business.
The ability to scale human capital, time-to- - Western Europe will see huge variance
market improvement and opex savings are as far as IPTV deployment and uptake is
key operational efficiency metrics which concerned. France will see the highest
operators considering professional services signups and Germany should see the
are looking to achieve. The proven ability to least. Reasons for sluggishness of IPTV
meet the minimum levels for these metrics is are poor pay TV penetration across
critical as operators decide how much of the Europe and poor LLU in certain markets.
network they can outsource. Mobile network
maturation is driving a shift in emphasis from - Despite a huge disparity across Europe,
a "build" to an "operate" mentality for these retail prices in Western European
carriers. Mobile product estimates the current countries continue to drop as usage is
number of mobile users split by prepaid and rising. As price elasticity and fixed-to-
postpaid, penetration rate, mobile service mobile substitution (FMS) are nearing
revenue split by voice and data, and users their maximum exploitation capabilities,
and handset figures split by technology. The MNOs are shifting their focus toward cost
success of mobile network separation will reduction to safeguard margins. On the
depend on the ability of partners to address demand side, the focus of competition is
issues including cost allocation, technology shifting toward brand and distribution
strategies and future investment. On similar power.
lines with Japan, most of these regions'
Indexes boast somewhat higher wireless - Western European MNOs have re-
than wired percentages, proving the relatively identified their core business, which is
high 3G penetration in Europe. Denmark and clearly related to the billing relationship

with their customers. The aftermath is a like HSDPA/HSPA. Mobile TV deployment is
close focus on direct relationship with expected to increase following a push from
their customers than on indirect retail the success of DVB-H standard with DVB-H
channel. developments/trials underway in Czech
Republic, Hungary and Poland. With Apple
- While increasing their activities in the forming partnership with three Russian
customer-facing side of the business, operators, and heightened competition
mobile operators opted to outsource and amongst the players along with innovative
share part of their assets. Network data packages offered by the operators, most
sharing of active and passive elements of of the 3G led subscriber growth will come
the radio access network (RAN), from the Russian market.
outsourcing of services, and the signing
of operations management agreements FTTH/FTTB availability is expanding in all
took place in virtually every Western five countries (Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia,
European country between 2005 and Czech Republic, Poland) with deployments
2008. by all manners of different players in the
telecoms market municipal governments,
- Major IP carriers have countered the mobile network operators, fixed-line
decline in revenues from traditional alternative operators as well as incumbents,
services through a programme of a trend that is expected to continue moving
acquisition and disposal, and by into 2009.
launching new wave product lines.
However, it continues to have significant
financial shortcomings.
NORTH AMERICA
Figure 4 - WORLDWIDE DATA SERVICES REVENUE
Operators will channelize their efforts
towards deployments and trial runs with clear
focus on LTE deployment and mobile WiMax
as long term technological evolution. Cable
operators like Time Warner, Comcast, and
Charter will bundle-up their products with new
service offerings and therefore will tie-up with
wireless service providers to counter the
IPTV offerings from Wireless operators. Rural
broadband subscribers will also increase as
many regional players are deploying wireless
broadband through WiMax and also through
EASTERN EUROPE wireline medium like xDSL with triple play
offerings. The roll out of fiber as preferred
access medium will increase due to unlimited
Eastern Europe is undergoing transf- bandwidth and bandwidth-extensive
ormation due to requirements to join the applications demand from users.
European Union (EU) and the World Trade
Organisation (WTO). Markets have been Growth of MVNO market will stabilize as
liberalized and incumbents privatized. The MVNO players will start cost-cutting
once perceived underdeveloped market has measures to retain their margins. Handset
reached saturation at some places. Mobile markets will enable a lot of operators to
operators are turning to data, as acquiring maintain falling revenues as well as increase
new subscribers will be tough in saturated their margins. Femtocell based solutions will
markets. also get deployed to optimize an operators
CAPEX. A new business model involving LTE
Most of the networks are already 3G and service offerings from wireless operators and
they are looking for options beyond 3G now broadband services from cable or fixed line
3
operators will be a good value-proposition for make it technology neutral, supporting 3G or
all players in this strategic telecom WiMAX .
ecosystem.
The wireline broadband market is expected to MIDDLE EAST

dip further in the foreseeable future. This
trend is likely to continue as large markets of
Middle Eastern markets have embarked on
the unsubscribed users, such as those in the
the process of liberalization and deregulation
lowest socioeconomic classes, are not likely
during the last three years. World's telecom
to adopt broadband if they haven't found a
players are showing active interest in this
need yet. Additionally the traditional ADSL
underserved and cash rich market.
and low-tier cable modem services will be
Companies like Etisalat in UAE, Qtel in Qatar
vulnerable to replacement from HSPA,
and Zain in Kuwait have benefitted from
WiMAX and other high-bandwidth wireless
acquiring new mobile licenses in the recently
technologies that are beginning to hit the
liberalized markets throughout the region.
mass market. To generate higher subscriber
Also there is a need to liberalize the market as
revenue home network management,
a requirement for joining the World Trade
network security services, physical
Organization. In addition to mobile licenses
security/monitoring services, network
the fixed line telephony is also under
storage, elderly care/telemedicine, gaming
liberalization. Competition will change the
and energy management could be the
way the incumbents operate and they might
differentiating factor in operators..
diversify their current offerings to defend
against the upcoming competition. With
IPTV is a global phenomenon. North
middle eastern governments starting to
America, for example, will see a varied appro-
realize the importance of telecommunication
ached by service providers. Across the board,
in the developments of their economies, they
consumers will get basic applications such as
hope that liberalization will bring increased
EPG, VoD and DVR with little involvement of
development of infrastructure, increased tele-
third parties. However we foresee the
density, better quality of service, increased
promise of true openness far from
customers choice and more attractively
materializing in the coming year.
priced services, all of which put pressure on
the incumbents to stay ahead of competition
and prove beneficial to the customers.
SOUTH AMERICA
Figure 5 - Global Mobile Video/ Broadcast TV Market
Most telecom markets in Latin America have
been privatized and liberalized. While private
investment has contributed to rapid growth in
mobile and long distance telephony, fixed
lines have virtually ceased to grow, despite a
low 18% teledensity. There will be intro-
duction of next-generation mobile broadband
services, including high-speed mobile
internet access, mobile TV and video, and
mobile-music-related services.
The upgradation of existing 2G (GSM
/GPRS/EDGE) network with the latest HSPA
functionality will enable a smooth and APAC
efficient introduction of high-speed 3G
(WCDMA/HSPA) services.
With growing competition, convergence
integrators are racing to redefine their product
Regulatory changes in the 2.5GHz band will portfolios. The widespread availability of
service options becomes irrelevant unless

providers can reach out to the right TD-SCDMA. Compared with TD-SCDMA
customers and articulate the selling infrastructure equipment, the TD-SCDMA
proposition based on a deeper market terminal is still the weakest link in the TD-
segmentation approach. Convergence SCDMA ecosystem. Without the active
integrators continue to gear up their participation of handset market leaders Nokia,
investment in strategic locations including Motorola and Samsung, TD-SCDMA terminals
Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore, where will not have a very attractive portfolio to gain
enterprises are in convergence mode. The market share in the Chinese domestic handset
story of IP convergence does not end here. market. In the end, consumer adoption of TD-
As enterprises are increasing their interest SCDMA will heavily rely on the device portfolio
in fast growing developing economies such offered by China Mobile.
as China, India and Vietnam for business
expansion and operational efficiency, pan- Globally, CDMA2000 is growing at a slow
Asian convergence integrators render their pace. China Mobile's adoption of TD-SCDMA
resources and support with enthusiasm. will have a great impact on the 3G
infrastructure market. We anticipate the TD-
Vietnam will soon be a goldmine for SCDMA subscriber base will easily exceed that
providers looking for untapped oppo- of CDMA2000 in China in the next 3 to 4 years.
rtunities. Vietnam's state-owned tele- However, it will take at least 7 to 8 years for TD-
communications sector is expected to be SCDMA to become the second-largest 3G
the primary user of a suite of ICT standard in terms of subscriber numbers.
technologies and solutions.
Mobile WiMax is expected to "monopolize the
Service availability changes over time as market" in Japan, with the country's UQ
convergence integrators move ahead with Communications slated to be its largest WiMax
IP convergence strategies. Whether it is a operator.
vertical or horizontal service expansion,
supporting a new generation of IP services Japan and South Korea are the leading 3G
could prove challenging if convergence markets in the region but soon, China, which is
integrators do not have the skills and still striving to make its place on the 3G map,
expertise required to support additional will emerge as the big market, thanks to its
service components. Touchbase's intent to 2008 Beijing Olympics. Among the hotspots of
establish its leadership in the unified IPTV is South Korea, a country known for
communications (UC) arena is clear as the having the highest penetration rate of
integrator has deepened its partnerships broadband Internet service in households .
with Cisco, Microsoft and IBM to pursue the
UC venture. The growth prospects seem - In Asia Pacific, Broadband wireless
promising as Touchbase is financially access (BWA) solutions have suffered
backed by one of its partners to exploit either an early demise or slow adoption
opportunities in emerging markets. due to the lack of standardization and poor
interoperability. As a result of this WiMAX
China Mobile recently completed its first has generated much interest as the next
large-scale public tender of TD-SCDMA evolutionary data-voice enabler. The
network equipment, with a total value of 26.7 assumptions for the uptake of WiMAX
bn Yuan (US$3.53 billion, based on an technology, particularly in developing
exchange rate of US$1 = 7.56 Yuan). areas, are based on the difficulties
Chinese telecom equipment manufacturers inherent in deploying today's available
ZTE and Datang are big winners, with competing technologies.
combined market share close to 75%.
Ericsson is a surprising loser with less than - In Asia-Pacific, the FMC ecosystem
1% market share. Motorola, Samsung and consists of a small number of service
Lucent (before merging with Alcatel) are big providers scattered across a highly
losers without even bidding on the project skewed telecom landscape. While a
due to a lack of infrastructure offerings for majority of the markets across Asia are
gradually transitioning to IP, the availability
3
of high quality omnipresent telecom for migration may not be the right thing to do.
infrastructure in advanced markets such The deployment of WiMAX as a solution for
as Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong Africa may not be such a good idea because
have hastened the deployment of FMC- of its need for power and its attractiveness for
based services. Transitioning to IP, the theft. Just because 3G is the world standard
availability of high quality omnipresent doesn't mean that it should be the investment
telecom infrastructure in advanced path towards wireless Africa. Africa should
markets such as Japan, South Korea and look towards fast growing economies of
Hong Kong have hastened the eastern Europe for models like community
deployment of FMC-based services. initiatives, micro-financing and wireless
deployments. The operators should be given
- The birth of Asia-America Gateway cable freedom to experiment various hybrid
system will complement existing high infrastructure approaches so that they can
bandwidth cable systems in the Asia cater to ICT needs of the society with a
Pacific. In addition, the AAG cable Unified license regime rather than penalizing
system will provide the much-needed them for the same. Infrastructure sharing
diversity against traditional routes to the could be a fair and financially efficient
US. proposition. Thus Africa will require a lot of
initiatives from government as well as
AFRICA operators for fruitful development of the
telecom sector in the future.
Traditionally the success story of neighbor
countries is emulated in a growing country,
but in the case of Africa duplicating the
success stories of UK and following their path
CONCLUSION
Western Europe markets are mature and saturated in the voice and text segment. Eastern
Europe on the other hand is undergoing transformation and has reached saturation at some
places which has led to mobile operators turning to data. The sole motive of North American
market will be to gain market share and customers as new business models emerge. In South
America while private investment has helped rapid growth in mobile and long distance
telephony, fixed lines additions have reduced. Africa needs a lot of government support to
flourish in this sector.

INDIAN TELECOM
SCOPE
Indian Telecom addresses the trends pertaining to fixed and mobile communications, rural
telephony, NLD & ILD, regulatory issues pertaining to 3G, WiMAX and MNP, and investment
pertaining to network. The main objective of this vertical is to predict fixed and mobile subscriber
base, overall teledensity, rural and urban teledensity, trends in 3G, WiMAX, infrastructure
sharing, telecom retailing, handset manufacturing and network investments.
ANALYSIS
SUBSCRIBER BASE tariffs as compared to other countries, which
& TELE-DENSITY is another major factor in driving the
increasing subscriber base. All these factors
India has seen an unprecedented growth in cumulatively contribute to the increasing
mobile telephony. Despite being one of the subscriber base and teledensity in urban and
fastest growing telecom markets, there is still rural areas. On the other hand fixed line
a lot of ground to be covered and the race is telephones have seen a downturn due to
on to achieve the numbers. With the entry of reasons like easy availability of mobile
new players, incumbents are expanding their services, difficulties in last mile connectivity
horizons with new licenses and increasing for operators, etc. The only brighter side of a
their range of services and QoS in existing fixed line is the increasing number of DSL
circles. Handset prices are coming down and subscribers for broadband connectivity. Thus
they are now not just communicating devices considering all this we predict that:
but much more, with additional features
available at affordable price. To put icing on - Fixed line subscriber base will witness
the cake the service providers are now going continuous marginal monthly reductions
for bundled services. which will lead to a base of 36.24 mn at
the end of Dec'09 resulting in a perc-
entage decrease of 6.23 % over July'08.
- Mobile subscriber base is expected to

reach a milestone of 412.25 mn with a
growth of 54% over July'08.
- The total subscriber base is expected to

reach 448.6 mn witnessing a growth of
33.97% over July'08.
- Continuous incentives by government to

operators for expanding rural coverage,
innovative services, handset manu-
The Government is encouraging Rural facturers bringing handsets in price
telephony with aid from USO funds and range of Rs. 600 to Rs. 800 and incre-
operators are promoting telephony as more of asing disbursal from USO fund will make
a utility. India has lowest calling rates and rural teledensity to cross a 17.19 % mark
3
by the end of 2009. In total, 141.17 mn that the advent of 3G is expected to offer are
rural connections are expected by mobile information, location based services,
Dec'09. business solutions, mobile entertainment etc.
All of these services will be a promoting point
- Various tariff schemes, various modes of for 3G services once it gains some
payment for purchase of handsets and acceptance in the market.
anticipation of 3G services will drive
urban teledensity to 87.38 % by the end TELECOM RETAIL
of 2009. With the growth in the telecom sector, the
telecom retailing is also seeing an uptake.
Increasing subscribers, increasing portfolio
FUTURE SERVICES of services by service providers and bundling
of services and increasing penetration
MNP especially in rural areas have contributed to
The announcement of guidelines for 3G and the increase in retailing of telecom related
MNP were a milestone in the Indian telecom products like handsets, service centers etc.
journey. This announcement puts enormous The increasing FDI in telecom retailing and
pressure on operators to provide world class with major players like Reliance, Tata, and
services or loose their customers to their RPG moving into retailing of telecom
competitors. Thus, the GSM players and products, the telecom retailing is traversing a
TRAI are at loggerheads over this issue and forward path. The investments in 2009 in this
implementation of MNP will be a matter of sector are likely to increase substantially.
challenge. The time taken to port a Telecom retail sector is expected to do a
customer's number from one operator to noticeable contribution by 2009 in total retail
another was decided 3 weeks initially, which sector.
was too high and hence it may not be
welcome by customers. Other issues like NLD/ILD
porting and routing methods are still grey With the increase in trans-pacific undersea
areas. Also the grant of contract for central cables, the bandwidth crunch is not that
clearing house will be a lengthy and serious an issue and operators are actively
complicated procedure taking into investing in these cable schemes to enhance
consideration cross holding and other such their own services in an efficient manner.
matters. Hence, the implementation is most Operators like Bharti , who have invested in
likely to be enforced by the mid of next year more than 5 cable consortiums and BSNL
around June. have plans to increase its presence in this
area through further investments. The total
3G SERVICE & APPLICATIONS demand for capacity is expected to double
The much expected 3G auction is expected roughly over the next two years. With VoIP
to bring a fresh breath of air to the Indian services (Subject to regulatory grants) and
telecom sector. It has been delayed for a long bundling of services, the demand for
period for one reason or another and now bandwidth will increase. This will also see an
with the expectation of global players to be increasing competition in the NLD and ILD
participating in the auction, 3G is the next big market, with broadband providers also
thing. Subject to 3G spectrum auction which competing with ILD and NLD operators for
is expected by the end of this year, the providing services. Hence, the tariff rates for
services will be rolled out by the end of next NLD and ILD are expected to decrease and
year and initially 3G will be more of a bundled services are going to be the order of
substitute to broadband rather than mobile the day.
internet. It is expected to be in nascent stage
for the next 2 to 3 years, due to reasons like FIXED WiMAX
customer awareness about the 3G services, The Government is planning to auction
availability of low cost 3G handsets, blocks of 700 Mhz and 3.3-3.6Ghz bands
affordability of services etc. Various services subject to availability in the next year to offer

Fixed Wimax in rural areas, but, due to availability of spectrum). This means that sans
reasons like high cost of CPE and Wimax auction we can see the Fixed Wimax growing
Services, Fixed Wimax is expected to be a in rural and urban areas to a large extent by the
niche technology and services will be limited end of next year.
to high end users and enterprises in urban
areas and subsidized services in rural USO FUNDS
areas. It is expected to grow in tier 2 and tier With rural teledensity increasing beyond
3 cities on the roadmap to Pune and expectations, the operators will be more
Bangalore. Operators like Reliance, Tata inclined to increase their operations in rural
and Idea Cellular are expected to invest in market and hence there will be increase in
Fixed Wimax to provide broadband services disbursement of USO funds towards rural
to business and high income residents in operations. The USO regime will also cover
urban areas. internet and broadband coverage, where ISPs
are also allowed to compete for subsidies from
On the rural front, the Government is USO funds against the services provided in
aggressively pushing to expand broadband rural areas. This has broadened the scope of
coverage and thereby improving services USO coverage from voice to voice and data,
like education, healthcare,etc. Major both of them being equally important. But there
investments have already been announced has been an opposition from CSP's on the
by operators like BSNL, RCOM, TTSL and issue of USO funds towards Broadband
equipment vendors are aggressive over operators and while the issue is being resolved
their WiMAX CPE's and their costing. Due to the disbursement for Broadband service
government intervention and low density, providers may decrease. In general there will
cost of Wimax deployment in rural areas is be increase in disbursement of USO funds to
low and hence operators are looking for a operators and there will be a rise in services
majority of market share by deploying offered to rural customers.
services as early as possible( subject to
CONCLUSION
There is no doubt that there is huge potential in the current Indian market, but, effective planning
and implementation will make way for a perfect story. The government should be careful in
devising telecom policies of the country in order to ensure it reaches the 500 million subscriber
target by 2010. Spectrum availability and allocation remains an issue which needs to be
addressed. A lucid 3G policy would be beneficial as it would draw more FDI. Indian operators
need to upgrade their services and infrastructure as the introduction of MNP and foreign players
to the Indian market could mar their plans of customer acquisition and customer retention.
3
TELECOM
TECHNOLOGIES
SCOPE
The advent of technology in the Telecom sector facilitates the provisioning of newer and cost
effective services and helps in meeting the demands of the consumers for the same, by making
them easily accessible. The telecom technology vertical focuses on these changing market
trends and its impact on the growth of the Telecom sector across the globe.The Telecom
Technology vertically encompasses the Core, Access and Transmission verticals.
ANALYSIS
CORE require vendors to support and increase
number of services on common IP/MPLS
ETHERNET platform to harmonize and co-exist with
Asia, North America and Europe continue to legacy network that service providers
drive investment in technology which has led currently possess. As a result there will be an
to rapid growth of global Ethernet markets for increase in investment in multiple services on
the last 3 years. Factors like shift towards IP edge routing.
based services, low cost and scalability are
driving this rapid development. As large IMS
emerging markets like India, China, Brazil, The IP multimedia subsystem is still the most
Russia etc continue to deploy network preferred next generation architecture. It is
infrastructure, they would account for half of still a key priority for converged fixed and
the new communication connections in next 5 mobile operators who are well into their all IP
years. With these countries leapfrogging over network transformation projects with
legacy infrastructure, Ethernet will play an eventual convergence at service core layer
increasing role in this rapid growth driven by as their ultimate goal. However, web 2.0 is
factors like low cost, lower complexity, faster taken for value proposition currently. The IMS
network deployment, rapid service creation implementation and transformation will take
and high Quality of Service. It is estimated approximately 10-15 years to materialize with
that global market for carrier Ethernet various impediments such as use of IP v6,
equipment will reach around $3.9 bn mark by Infrastructure deployment towards all IP
2010 at a CAGR of 33%. networks in phase-wise manner etc. On the
other hand, fixed line operators will be most
MPLS aggressive in adopting IMS elements.
The IP/MPLS edge market is expected to However they will be adopting software
grow continuously with the availability of high driven migration path towards IMS with
end technology and low cost infrastructure. additional investments in SIP based soft
Conventional edge routing and multiple switches and media gateway driven solutions
services on edge routing are two areas where for a phase wise evolution towards NGN
maximum growth is to be seen with architecture.
increasing consolidation plans between
service providers and vendors. Network ACCESS
consolidation plan puts cost reduction and
new service introduction on top priority of DSL (ADSL/VDSL)
important parameter op ex, service providers Commoditization of band width and growing

demand for higher bit rates for bandwidth WCDMA segment. Operators in Latin
hungry applications and increasing America have launched 3G with WCDMA
awareness of fiber capacity and advantages with a great hype. Though there are still
have pushed operators towards deploying questions about the reality, one thing is for
fiber and there has been a general shift certain that some operators are pretty serious
towards FTTH rather than upgrading the regarding their 3G services and WCDMA is
existing lines to ADSL 2+ standards. going to be their preferred path for evolution
Moreover with DOCSIS 3.0 released and from the existing GSM technology. There has
deployed ADSL, faces a stiff competition in been a slow uptake in the Latin American
global markets. In India the delay in roll out of market for the WCDMA services owing to
3G services and WiMAX operations have factors like availability of spectrum, consumer
given a chance to fixed line operators to familiarity with mobile data services etc.
upgrade existing lines to ADSL 2 standards. Presently WCDMA active commercial
As fixed line substitution and general shift networks in Latin American countries focus
towards mobile continues, broadband value more on providing connectivity to laptops
added services and increased capacity will rather than providing new services. With
become drivers for fixed line service increasing consumer awareness regarding
providers to upgrade to ADSL 2+ and make advantages of WCDMA like High Data Speed
their mark in the market. This will result in with Mobile Internet Access, mobility,
further deployments of ADSL cables in India. multimedia facilities, video conferencing etc.
there will be a huge number of takers for
WCDMA.
As India awaits the roll out of 3G due to delay

in auction of 3G spectrum, the natural path for
evolution of GSM players will be WCDMA.
While the CDMA players plan to move to EV-
DO, one possible option for them will be to
migrate to GSM. We believe that 3G will kick
off by the end of next year, but it will be a niche
market for coming 2 to3 years owing to
certain reasons like availability of low end 3G
devices, customer familiarity with mobile data
services. Initially 3G will be promoted as an
GPRS/ EDGE alternative form of broadband access rather
With the delay in 3G rollout services like than a new service as consumers are still not
GPRS and EDGE have a scope for completely aware of high speed data services
development especially in India. The number on mobile and also due to lack of availability
of subscriber using these services is not very of low end handsets with 3G capabilities.
high. GPRS is not so popular in India as 50% When more operators promote low end
of the handsets sold in India are low cost handsets in addition to mobile broadband
handsets( i.e. below $50). These phones are services then the WCDMA services will pick
not GPRS enabled. Also the phones with up and start growing at a rapid pace.
GPRS have a problem of navigation.
Customers prefer easy navigation and easy HSDPA
searching of content on phones, which is not HSDPA with increased data rates and greater
the case with phones available in the market system capacity is next in line of evolution
currently. The handset manufacturers have from WCDMA. Improved end user expe-
so far considered giving subsidies only to the rience and minor alteration to existing
handsets, they should look towards WCDMA architecture will be the major driver
preloading applications as per local needs. for operators to upgrade to HSDPA. For some
operators who start late on their 3G rollout
WCDMA may even leapfrog into HSDPA due to higher
The year 2008 saw some great movement in data rates and low up gradation costs from
WCDMA.
3
WiMAX alternative to reach to customer in an efficient
WiMAX uptake has a unique set of potential, manner and thus the WiMAX deployments
opportunities and challenges in the emerging are expected to pick up if government creates
markets. WiMAX is used as an alternate way a favourable policy framework to enable the
to serve areas that cannot use traditional adoption of new wireless standard. Due to
wireline networks. And the target market for low PC penetration and country specific
wimax is lucrative enough to have boosted mobile broadband framework it makes a
the expectations for the technology. However nationwide rollout of WIMAX prohibitive. Also
the WiMAX deployments have been slower due to spectrum limitation the rural coverage
than what the hype suggests owing to factors using WiMAX will be limited. Hence due to all
like regulatory issues and low buying power these factors It is expected that india will have
of consumers that stand to benefit the most 6.9 million subscribers by the end of 2011
from technology. There are some examples unless government intervenes with some
of commercial uses of this technology positive influence.
although some of them are only as an access
technology and not as a mobile platform.
TRANSMISSION
Currently the highest demand for wireless
broadband comes from high end markets, DWDM
corporations and some SMEs with high tech With the advent of new technologies and
needs. However, there is a pent up demand in bandwidth hungry applications, there is an
areas that lack access to develop wireline ever increasing demand of bandwidth in the
services. Some of the major inhibitors of market. Thankfully due to increase in FDI and
growth of WiMAX are availability of laying of transpacific cables to overcome
spectrum, regulatory and legal issues, limited bandwidth crunch it has mobilized the
access to computers in rural areas and cost of bandwidth market and DWDM remains the
CPEs, lack of spending power for WiMAX preferred technology for transmission. Even
services etc. Despite this, countries like with operators migrating towards 4G network
Mexico, Chile, China etc have rolled out the transmission is expected to be supported
WiMAX services with varying success. This by DWDM. India has seen major investments
technology has found a friend in development in fiber optics mainly by public sector
plans of several emerging economies organizations and they are adopting DWDM.
including Latin America, China and India.
Hence further deployment of fixed Wimax in
Latin America and Mobile Wimax in China is
expected to grow rapidly.
India has more than 70% Indian households

without access to fixed line telephony which
means these households have no last mile
connectivity and providing DSL to them is a
momentous task. Also with no last line
unbundling WiMAX provides as an
CONCLUSION
A lot of the technologies mentioned above will see immense growth due to factors like low cost,
lower complexity and faster network deployment. GPRS is not widely used due to the low end
phones used by the cost sensitive Indian consumers. Increasing demand for higher bit rates for
bandwidth hungry applications and awareness of fibres have pushed operators to move to
fibers. Wimax is emerging to be a far more trusted alternative as compared to fixed lines. The
Indian scene will be exciting to watch out in the Wimax space but the real challenge would be
consumer pricing and speedy roll outs by operators.

MOBILITY
SCOPE
India's galloping wireless industry, the world's fastest growing mobile market, undergoes
changes year on year with every year outpacing the previous one. This report endeavors to bring
forth foreseeable trends in the field of mobility focusing on key drivers and some of the factors
instrumental in propelling the mobile industry in the current scenario that are Revenue,
Subscriber Base, Mobile Density, ARPU, and MVAS.
ANALYSIS
COUNTRY TRENDS respectively. The market adoption of Wireless
internet will add to the Data ARPU.
The mobile subscriber base is expected to
cross 412.12 million by the end of 2009 with Those Telcos eyeing to become a volume
the overall mobile density reaching 38%.The based player will face tradeoffs between
maximum growth is expected in 'B' and 'C' Customer Subscription/Retention vis-à-vis
circles, we also expect B circle to cover 40% Quality of Service. Although falling ARPU
of the subscriber base while 'METRO', A and coupled with low tariffs will force operators to
C circle are expected to cover 13%, 35% and look at other revenue streams in mobile
12% respectively by the end of the year 2009. services. Other than just voice, operators see
data services and converged services as the
next big revenue generator for them.
MOBILE VALUE ADDED SERVICES
The current MVAS market (as of June 2008)

is of Rs 5780 crores. P2P SMS contributes Rs
2140 crores to the MVAS market and this
goes only to the operators (the balance Rs
3640 crores is divided between the different
stakeholders including th operators.). Rs
2312 crores come from CRBT/RT while the
balance Rs 1329 crores is divided amongst
the other services. It is expected that the
ARPU MVAS market will exceed a figure of Rs 9760
Going by the number of mobile phone crores by second quarter of 2009. MVAS
subscribers, India has become the world's currently contributes around 9 % to the
fastest growing region. The GSM ARPU operator's revenue. It is expected to increase
increased by 1.15% in Q1 2008 over Q4 2007 to 10.4 % in the next 1 year and 12% by June
while the CDMA ARPU decreased by 9.6% in 2010.CRBT (caller ring-back tones)
the same period. Looking at the ARPU trends constitutes bulk of the VAS market share at
it is forecasted that the blended ARPU for 40%. Other data includes e-mail, games, on-
GSM and CDMA would decline to a value of deck content etc.
Rs. 225 and Rs. 130 in the year 2009
3
Undoubtedly, entertainment such as Indian would be able to see the following changes in
film, pop music and video as well as cricket the mobile internet zone:
are the most important components of non-
voice revenue and have contributed - The Telcos would try to improvise on the
significantly to operators' kitty. But even after content rather than engaging in speed
seeing significant growth, entertainment has battles.
not seen much adoption beyond CRBTs and
ringtones, and cricket is restricted only to - The internet and the content based
match scores through SMS alerts. 3G companies focusing on small screen size
networks would drive services such as MMS, handset based mobile internet business
mobile banking, mobile internet, mobile e- would like to push for innovative
mail, mobile advertising and mobile strategies such as Interactions defined in
shopping. However, 3G alone cannot boost shorter sessions, rendering web content
the Indian operators' non-voice service for improved display on a limited screen,
revenue. more communications-centric
applications, with less use of rich formats
such as video, and the location-aware
services.
- Operators are looking forward to a higher

number of API's to accommodate more
number of A2P to cater to their strategic
tie-ups and partnerships. This would
bolster the 2G revenues.
- With the emergence of 3G based hand-

sets we predict that the content would
diverge rather than converge between the
big and small screen size handsets.
We forecast that the SMS volumes would
cross the 140 million mark in 2009 and will - Telcos would depend on customized
see more and more SMS based utility Mobile advertising to further the growth
applications in the near future. Operators of Wireless internet thereby creating the
would also seek for Voice portal/ IVR based demand. We predict that the mobile
services to overcome the language barrier of advertising market revenue would
SMS. exceed the figure of Rs. 55 Crores by
2009.
The mobile gaming market saw aggressive
growth in the year 2007-08; the market grew
at 40%. It is expected that with the availability
of data enabled handsets as well as operator
taken initiatives related to pricing as well as
network up gradation we would see a similar
growth and the market would reach to a figure
of Rs 450 Crore in the consecutive year.
WIRELESS INTERNET
The number of Wireless internet subscribers

grew from 18 mn in 2006 to 57.83 mn by 2007 ENTERPRISE MOBILITY
end; we predict that the wireless internet
subscriber base will cross 130 mn mark by Large / Medium enterprises in India are well
1st quarter 2009. In the forecasted period we connected by fixed networks. Integrated

communications services are considered Voice telephony, as well as Video-
important to improve productivity, they will be conferencing solutions. Efforts will be made
early adopters of mobile wireless services to provide presence based unified
including enterprise level core applications. communications in the enterprise space.
Blackberry will continue to lead the mobile Many corporations would go for deploying
push mail services market; however, Unified communications to transform their
Microsoft Windows based platforms have the internal business processes, empower
head start in the number of devices sold. But employees with approved business
even with these developments, initial applications and improve overall customer
handset cost can still be a big deterrent for service quality. Videoconferencing vendors
SME / SOHO adoption. In the future while e- like Polycom, Aethra, Sony, Cisco and
mail and PIM would become dominant, the Radvision would look towards deploying their
new wave would emerge around integration telepresence solutions. However, there is a
of mobility with the CRM, SCM, SFA and potential for enterprise based HD video
WFA. conferencing services. The principal
Hardware based Videoconferencing vendors
In the coming year, Enterprises would move such as Polycom and Cisco would find this to
more towards SIP based architecture for their be a major detriment.
CONCLUSION
Significant developments in Value added Services, emergence of new content based services
like mobile search, gaming, banking, and m-commerce applications would augment the growth
in the consumer mobility segment. The true essence of mobility would be fully captured by the
rich Enterprise applications that will be realised in the coming year due to the uptake of services
such as Unified Communications; presence based video telephony and Enterprise Telephony.
3
BROADBAND
SCOPE
This vertical focuses on both Wired & Wireless Broadband in India by covering the demand and
supply side of Broadband with its impact on the Broadband Equipment market. Predictions are
done for both the Enterprise & the Retail Broadband markets along with the key technologies
which will impact the Broadband landscape over the next one year.
ANALYSIS
SUBSCRIBER BASE & to provide its service to its clients. Hence it is
TECHNOLOGY WISE DISTRIBUTION obvious that WiMAX is costly over ADSL. For
enterprise segment security is the major
The Internet and broadband market has concern for WiMAX. Hence with the existing
made the move, although a bit slow but setup already present ADSL is cheaper and
definitely on the positive side. With increasing seems to be better option with fixed line
awareness amongst the customers, the telephones. On the other hand with most of
demand for services like online gaming, video the operators worldwide using spectrum
download and multimedia content, which may between 3.3-3.8, 2.3-2.7 & 5-6 GHz, Indian
require high or low bandwidth has grown, operators have 2*6Mhz of available
increase in availability of services has added spectrum. As per recommendation wimax
to that demand. Although there are some spectrum will be auctioned and will be ready
major concerns like the cost of operation and for use by nov 2009 by 3 operator with 10*2
maintenance, cost of CPE, low penetration in Mhz. Till this happens the spectrum is less
rural and urban population and low computer and hence the per BTS customer mapping to
literacy which are to be addressed. Some its cost makes it highly costly affair.
initiatives like the last mile unbundling, We expect the broadband subscriber base to
decreasing the cost of computers etc. have be more than 8.5 million by the end of june
also been slow on the uptake. next year.
Analysis has shown that in places with

existing wireline infrastructure, the cost of
rolling out DSL is significantly lower than
setting up a WiMAX infrastructure from
scratch. This is largely due to the lower cost of
DSL equipment as well as the availability of
DSLAMs4 with 1520 ports, which lower the
cost of enabling even the remote, rural
exchanges. The cost of setting up a WiMAX
base station, on the other hand, can be up to
1.5 times higher than enabling an exchange
for DSL. ADSL is having a CPE cost of $90
and WiMAX CPE costs as much as $140.
Another crucial element is the high spectrum
charges that a service provider needs to pay

wireless connectivity is becoming reality. Also
the mobile phone user base outgrows all
projections as the mobile phone is becoming
the most ubiquitous personal accessory we
are seeing a growing number of them
carrying wi-fi capability. Also with express
allocation for e-governance schemes such as
SWAN(State Wide Area Network) the Wi-Fi
future looks to be bright. But there are some
deterrents, major of them are lack of
seamless roaming scheme and variable
quality of service experienced by the user.
Some of the initiatives that are being taken in
WIMAX the wifi scenario are announcement of Indian
Railways to wifi enable all the important
WiMAX devices and networks are available routes, some companies going for a wifi
now for deployment worldwide delivering enabled campuses and even shops and
best in class broadband services at a cost to cafes following their footsteps.
consumers significantly lower than any other
technology. Also with factors like lack of
robust infrastructure, embedded mobile VSAT
wimax in mobile PCs and dual mode
cellular/wimax devices or handsets will drive A huge potential is seen in the VSAT market,
the wimax volumes. The latest TRAI this is because various states have launched
recommendation talks about the auction in their state wide area network, but not all
2.3-2.6 Ghz band and the reserve license states have the kind of infrastructure
fee is doubled to 1010crores for an ISP who required, hence VSAT will play a major role.
apply for a PAN India wimax spectrum. In Also some small and medium retails would be
India because of the poor rural infrastructure willing to use this technology for enhancing
the adoption of wimax is easier and also the their businesses. Even Distant education is
new amendments by DoT policies will help possible through VSAT. It can also be used in
only the serious players to take part in the cellular backhaul segment, where satellite
auction of the frequency. The service provides a backhaul to locations that are not
provided will be of global standards. Even reachable by microwave or fiber, thereby
though the price of laptop with embedded increasing rural penetration. VSAT has
hardware and high capex for a PAN India evolved but its ineffectiveness in reach lies in
coverage would slow the wimax adoption in terms of its cost. This is a highly costly affair.
the initial phases it is expected to pick up The cost depends upon the usage hence is
later. The wimax forum is expected to come more effective on light applications. To reach
up with a comprehensive global roaming the remotest of remote locations VSAT is the
plan by the end of 2008. With the operators key.
like Tata comm.. and Sify taking on the wimax
deployments we expect the uptake of wimax
in a big way atleast in the enterprise and RURAL
urban markets.
With various drivers like last mile connectivity
from optical POP, low income level in
WI-FI geographically dispersed villages,
deployment of wimax in lower frequency
As the notebook consumption drives upto a bands for large range and want of killer
phenomenal 21% of the total PC consumed applications like telemedicines, tele-
in the first half of 2008 against a fading education etc, wimax is going to be the future
desktop growth of 3% and with 90-95% of technology for rural penetration. After mobility
notebooks with built-in wi-fi, the promise of comes into picture wimax will acquire its true
3
colors. With equipments which could utilize BACKHAUL
spectrum better and also tend to use
spectrum over 7Ghz could spur wimax into a The fiber is a costly option which may/may not
domain which will parallel even fiber in the be available for the backhaul network. In such
future. BSNL and other operators with aid a context Wimax and VSAT can be a good
from USO funds plan to expand their base of option for a company to deploy to provide
operation from current reach to an estimate connectivity present everywhere. Implem-
of 1.5 lakh villages and more than 5000 entation of high data technology like Wimax
cities by the end of next year. (Licensed/unlicensed Bands), i- burst can
help in giving Backhaul link. Efficient Use of
Spectrum for Wimax will boost usage of Wimax
as backhaul networks.
CONCLUSION
The dream of achieving 20 mn broadband subscribers by 2010 seems like a mirage at this
moment. If this dream has to be realized rural India will have to play an integral role. The rural
area does not have enough penetration of PCs which is driven by the point as there is lack of
awareness. When we look at the broadband scenario throughout India the broadband
infrastructure does not seem to be tantamount to the present requirements. Therefore there
should be incentives provided by government to operators for improving infrastructure and
support them in setting base in rural areas.. Deploying copper cable or fiber optics will not be
conducive in terms of ROI and cost effectiveness. Therefore Wimax will be more propitious.
However the biggest impediment would be non availability of spectrum at affordable costs.
Government should ensure that the Indian operators wake up to the opportunities broadband
provides to them and utilize it to the utmost. In the mobile revolution in India since there were no
Indian operators ready to deploy networks and telecom infrastructure, the opportunity was taken
up by Foreign companies. Taking this as a learning experience the government should ready
themselves for the Broadband revolution and reap its benefits.

TELECOM
SOFTWARE
SCOPE
Telecom software is used at the back end of the IT infrastructure of telecom companies. It also
includes client side softwares like mobile OS and user applications. The latest trends in the
telecom software market, including Mobile Applications, OSS/BSS & System Integration, are
predicted under the scope of this vertical.
ANALYSIS
CRM OSS/BSS
IT shops have begun integrating customer Operators are looking for integrated ordering
relationship management platforms with the and customer management, billing and
traditional e-commerce solutions. Integrating balance management, and revenue
these platforms can lower ,order processing enablement coupled with an extendible and
below $1 per transaction. Thus a big flexible architecture.
integration in this domain is widely expected
to meet the enterprise needs. NGOSS, or New Generation OSS, will be an
answer for a comprehensive, integrated
Retaining customers and enhancing framework for developing, procuring and
relationships with customers is the most deploying operational and business support
important goal of companies, with 'attracting systems and software, available as a toolkit of
new customers' every second. Thus another industry-agreed specifications and
boosting factor for CRM applications. guidelines that cover key business and
technical areas. NGOSS will be an enabler to
Marketing automation is expected to be the achieve unprecedented levels of
fastest growing segment of CRM, achieving interoperability. With a total new face of
an 11.2 percent CAGR through 2009. One of OSS/BSS to cope with, operators will
the recent changes in the market is that the upgrade their BSS/OSS infrastructure. In
hybrid on-premise/on-demand model is India particularly where the domestic market
becoming a reality. is being dominated by the MNCs.
Expected growth of CRM market is 11.3 per- After the introduction of multi-play
cent in 2009, to $9.3 billion.The leading on- convergence, telecom operators have more
demand CRM vendors will find themselves data than before from a wide range of BSS
under increased pressure both from smaller systems. Getting all this divergent data into a
hosted solution providers and established on- single repository to enable convergent
premise vendors offering on-demand business intelligence is becoming the norm
software versions.The implications are that for leading telecom operators. Thus the next
subscription prices could decrease, era will see the opportunity which is to take
particularly among the less-differentiated convergent business intelligence to the next
entry-level solutions. level and integrate network OSS data with
BSS data for all networks and service. Indian
3
OSS/BSS market will continue to grow at 6- operators with new avenues for increased
7% CAGR globally with the Indian market revenues through greater usage of the
growing much faster. Service Layer application.
OSS/BSS market will continue to grow at 6-
7% CAGR globally with the Indian market
growing much faster. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
Operators currently face significant oper- The world wide BI tools software market is
ational challenges when attempting to roll- expecting a five year compounded annual
out new services such as Virtual Private growth of 7.3% through 2009.The overall
Networks (VPN), Internet Protocol Television revenue from BI is expected to be $7.2 bn
(IPTV), and Voice over Internet Protocol through worldwide license and maintenance.
(VoIP). To meet the upcoming challenge, The EBIS sub segment is expected to grow
upgradation of existing infrastructure will be under 1.5 bn in 2009 with a CAGR of 7.4%.
the top priority along with the single view of The data warehouse and CPM suites will be
network ,services and customer. more strategic to the ERP vendors than the
actual ERP modules . Partnership and
SDP will evolve from basic content delivery to alliances will grow the pie for BI services. The
architecture for integrating legacy and IP- database embedded BI server market will
based network services in order to drive new experience a higher growth rate of 15-16%
revenue by exposing the communications and stand alone BI software's market will
network to third-party application developers. experience a growth rate up to 10%. The
query, reporting, analysis market will outgrow
the advanced analytics market in 2009.
SOA American market will continue to be the
largest with a slight downfall from a share of
India is set to be the fastest growing SOA 52.9% in the BI tools revenue.
market in Asia. It is expected to grow at a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
49% from 2006-2009. Driving forces for SOA REVENUE ASSURANCE
in 2009 will be:
The number of products offered by telcos
- Composite applications scenario in the have increased from the typical ten to
organizations, which is always very hundreds because of the move from voice to
complex. data, fixed to mobile and debit model to a
credit model, naming a few. The practice of
- Highly competitive market will force revenue management in telecom is also
enterprises to adopt SOA in order to be becoming increasingly important. Although
more agile and responsive. we constantly hear about cost-cutting
strategies, the revenue side of the equation is
- Management is now very conscious of of equal significance. In order to implement
returns on IT investment. an efficient strategic revenue management
function, telcos will make a huge investment
Through the SOA, telcos will focus to build an towards prevention of revenue leakage.
application that allows service subscribers to Quality assurance and revenue assurance
access their account information residing on will be key ingredients in increasing an
various OSS and BSS. Communications operator's ARPU. The inherent cost of
Service Providers (CSPs) will focus on the developing comprehensive revenue
SOA approach to automate the fulfillment assurance capabilities will increase
processes for their telecommunications dramatically during 2009.The shrinking
services such as DSL, VoIP or IPTV. The margins for telecom services are forcing
major benefits from SOA in telecom will network operators to deploy revenue
include swift generation and deployment of assurance more aggressively.
mobility enhanced applications and providing

BILLING AND MEDIATION In the past years, many of the mobile devices.
Apple and RIM have already shown the
Heavyweight BSS/OSS vendors like benefits of such a model where they earn not
Amdocs, Oracle, LHS and systems just from handset but also by a plethora of
integrators like Tech Mahindra, Wipro will services provided by them to end customers.
continue to engage themselves in OSS and With the complexity of services increasing,
BSS transformation projects, major system the OS will become increasingly important as
rationalization projects and projects devices need to evolve to support more
specifically geared towards improving complex service offerings from carriers.
customer experience. However the vendors
would take up projects to make the carriers industry's leading players significantly shifted
realize and eliminate the biggest hurdle of their strategy, one from getting revenues from
achieving nimble service delivery sale of handsets & OS (royalty) to revenues
architecture with their siloed, disparate BSS from content & services. Apple and RIM have
and OSS systems. In the face of rapid already shown the benefits of such a model
broadband penetration and Web 2.0- where they earn not just from handset but
oriented business scenarios, the critical also by a plethora of services provided by
billing model changes will be incorporated to them to end customers. With the complexity
engage and monetize advertisers, content of services increasing, the OS will become
partners and customers. NGN architecture increasingly important as devices need to
requirements and the need for prepaid and evolve to support more complex service
postpaid convergence will drive the need for offerings from carriers.
billing and mediation platforms to provide a
real-time charging and rating control Figure 12 - Mobile OS Market
mechanism for call detail records (CDRs).
Product portfolios to cater to the
convergence market would significantly
emerge in the forecasted period to help the
Cable companies, multiple system operators
(MSOs) and traditional telecom carriers
trying to provide triple-play and quad-play
services to meet the demands of subscribers.
MOBILE OS
In the past the smartphone OS market was

dominated by Symbian worldwide (60 to ERP
65%) (except in the US) with windows mobile
OS, RIM, Linux, iPhone OS trailing. The Driving ERP market growth over the next year
mobile OS market is going to see dynamic will be acquisitions, emerging markets like
change with the arrival of open platforms China and India, penetration of new
Android and the decision of making Symbian i n d u s tr i e s , i n c r e a s i n g m a i n te n a n c e
OS open source. This will lead to a divide in revenues, and exchange rate movements.
the OS market with open source and end to The worldwide market for Enterprise
end solution to customers (iPhone, RIM) Applications is expected to grow to $36 billion
being the prominent models. by 2009, a compounded annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 8.3%.
The royalty-free license program (open
source) is designed to increase the installed Economic growth and the new locations for
base of advanced handsets that can be low cost manufacturing operations are major
targeted for content and services. The drivers for ERP investment. Hence, Latin
handsets and OS, although still critical, are America, China and India are expected to
not the key revenue generators of the future. achieve the high growth rates, with EMEA
3
(Europe, Middle East, Africa) achieving operational functions typically have provided
average growth over the forecast period. functionality that is confined to one domain,
However, growth will be patchy across such as sales force automation, or one business
EMEA, for instance, relatively low growth process, such as payroll.
rates are expected in France and Southern
Europe. The EU accession countries, The big-vendor-dominated market of enterprise
although relatively small markets, will resource planning (ERP) applications will be
achieve respectable rates of growth. Growth poised to take off for non-proprietary technology.
in the North American region is expected to enterprise resource planning (ERP) applic-
lag behind the other regions. ations will be poised to take off for non-
proprietary technology.
ERP SaaS suite offerings are still immature.
Because of the complexity of ERP suites,
SaaS offerings for administrative and
CONCLUSION
There is a big integration expected in the CRM domain to meet the enterprise needs. Acquiring and
retaining customers would be of utmost importance. Upgradation of the present infrastructure will
be the top priority. There will be a lot of consolidation happening and mergers and acquisitions will
be the order of the day. Since ARPU is critical in a country like India as it has one of the lowest
ARPU's in the world, telcos will make a huge investment towards prevention of revenue leakage.
Hence quality and revenue assurance will play a crucial role.

COMMUNICATION
INFRASTRUCTURE
SCOPE
The development of a country's telecom infrastructure is the key to the development of its overall
economy. Communication Infrastructure vertical gives a broader picture of the performance of
the Indian telecom sector which contributes about 2.1% of GDP. Analysis of investments,
technological up-gradation, opex, infrastructure sharing imparts the growth and performance of
ICT in India by and large.
ANALYSIS
PASSIVE INFRASTRUCTURE infrastructure providers(Quipo Telecom
Infrastructure limited, GTL Infrastructure
- As all the leading mobile service limited, Telecom Tower and Infrastructure
operators expand their networks to limited Owned by Essar Group), TVS
increase coverage and increasingly seek Interconnect, system limited), foreign
to share passive infrastructure in order to entrants (American Tower Corporation
reduce capital expenditure, provisioning (US Based), Tower Vision (UK Based),
of towers has emerged as a new stand Xcel Telecom, Rambolls Telecom
alone business. Towers) and divested infrastructure wing
of the carriers (Bharti Infratel,
- The outsourced infrastructure providers' RelianceTelecomInfrastructure, Tata Tele
ensuring reasonable pricing for sharing of Services Limited).
infrastructure, ensures that towers may
not become bottleneck to rollout, wireless - For the next few years, the focus will be
services in view of increasing restrictions on an accelerated roll-out of services in
by Municipal Corporation, providing rural and semi-urban areas and at least
guaranteed SLA. two players will be rolling out services on
1800 MHz in rural areas doubling the
- Due to intensive growth, intra-site tower requirement. India currently has
distance of base units are reducing about 2 lakh towers and would require
drastically and the formation of such 85,000- 90,000 more towers for the next
cluster of base units opens a new fiscal year due to various reasons
opportunity of sharing the infrastructure, mentioned above out of which 41% of
which could be passive as well as active deployment would be shared amongst
and as India is poised to roll out 3G incumbents & Greenfield operator
services, by outsourcing Telco's deployments.
infrastructure requirements, operators
are able to save on capex and opex. We - Expanding network coverage to areas
predict tower sharing can reduce cost of where little or no power is available is
ownership by 16-23%. challenging for operators, particularly in
countries with a high percentage of rural
- Outsourcing of infrastructure requirement population like in India. In order to reduce
will see rise due to FDI, PE investments in reliance on traditional energy sources,
the next fiscal year and will heighten service providers are evaluating
competition for the existing 3rd party alternative energy sources including
3
solar power, wind power and bio fuels, BACKBONE
therefore government policies would
consider and aid the same. - As content owners migrate from critical
revenue-generating content to IP, they
must ensure a quality of experience for
Figure 13 - Growth of BTS / Mobile
the end user. This is true whether the
content in question is small static objects,
rich online consumer content, high-
quality streaming video, internally facing
enterprise files or any number of other
content types, hence the need for heavy
deployment of optical transmission by
service providers. In the near future,
along with the growth of IP-based
services, TDM and ATM-based services
will also grow.
ACTIVE INFRASTRUCTURE - IP-based and legacy services co-exist in

two layers, namely, data service layer and
- Mobile operators in India are enjoying optical transport layer. The data service
unprecedented growth in subscriber layer may consist of IP and multi-services
base. As Indian telecom sector is poised network and the transport layer will have
to launch 3G services by late 2009 to be fully optical, based on DWDM,
(subject spectrum auction by Telecom which, in turn, will be enhanced by
authority), incumbent players are already existing SDH-based optical networks. In
on pilot tests for 3G services and 2008-09, more wireless licenses of
infrastructure deployments. The data different systems are expected to be
card market will see huge uptake enabled issued to anxious operators. Diversified
by EVDO technology. services will provide more choices for
subscribers.
- However, the limitation of one operator
per circle would limit the reach of EVDO. - For all business operators, a combination
This would keep the service expensive of multiple services will be offered to
for the subscribers. No new player increase customer loyalty. Telecom
would enter the market. Data cards for operators identified the rural markets as
EVDO would be more successful than their next destination in India for
handsets as competition with GSM would increasing their top line, the anticipation
be fierce on handsets domain. HSPA did not vouch for the kind of exponential
network would be the favorable choice for growth it has seen. The wireless
GSM players. infrastructure segment grew by 42.5%
rise and expects to stabilize this fiscal
- Until a broad portfolio of handset prices year. An IP backbone will be widely used
reach the sub-$50 range and low-end 3G in networks in their nascent stage,
devices becomes available, operators complementary to optical and microwave
will be in no hurry to extend 3G coverage transmission.
beyond affluent urban areas. Acceptance
of fixed WIMAX will be low due to VSAT
frequency allocation and cost of license
would be high, seeing the cost of fixed - Over the years, the role of VSAT has
WiMAX as of now. This would keep transformed from being the only available
smaller players out of competition. means for connectivity, to its present
complimentary role in supporting the
more prevalent terrestrial solutions.
There is a robust demand for both Ku as

well as Ext-C band services. - Even though service providers have
started offering IPTV services, it is still far
- The key industry segments expected to from posing a threat to cable TV and DTH,
contribute strongly to the growth in the as the price range is high and broadband
VSAT segment in FY 2008-09 are penetration is low. In the near future IPTV
banking, e-governance, stock/ will not pose challenge to the growth of
commodity trading, defense, distance cable and DTH market.
education, and retail. Apart from this,
there is higher acceptance of VSATs as a
broadband access medium by a much
larger market of SMEs, which is likely to
provide additional growth compared to
the traditional enterprise and government
segments.
- Considering all the above stated facts,

the future seems to be bright for the VSAT
industry, as it is expected to record a
growth of 20% to 25% in the current fiscal
year. It is also poised to play a critical role
in bridging the digital divide by
addressing remote rural segments.
NETWORK INTEGRATORS
DTH - Pushed by competitive pressures and

market demands for efficient service,
- Home entertainment industry will see companies across a wide array of vertical
enormous growth in the coming year. industries are pursuing the use of third
Entry of new players will have a parties to provide a range of information
c a s c a d i n g e ff e c t o n t e r r e s t r i a l and communications technology (ICT)
broadcasting services. Orientation of services
nuclear families is more toward DTH
services. To compete with DTH, cable - Despite their role as suppliers of ICT
operators will be forced to provider services, telecommunication service
digitalized content to their subscribers. providers are no exception to this trend.
Digitalization of cable industry will hit the Driven by a highly competitive market
cable service provider very hard, as costs with declining margins and ARPU, service
related to instrument and fiber providers are looking at professional
deployment will affect them services as a way to minimize operational
expenditures.
- There will be hectic activity in DTH space
due to intense competition and wide - Service providers are looking to
scope for growth. ISRO's plan to launch professional services vendors for
new satellites and leasing transponders managed operations, network support,
from foreign satellites will attract new network design, planning, consultancy
players into the DTH market. The entry of and other strategic functions. In essence,
new DTH players will result in price wars the door is open for carriers to outsource
and which will eventually attract more the network itself to network integrators
subscribers to DTH services. like Wipro Infotech, HCL comnet, Data
Craft, HCL Info, Tulip, etc. and this area of
- Adoption of new compression managed operations is the most fertile
technology, MPEG 4 by players will result ground for carrier professional services
in increase in number of channels on
offer. - The network integration market has
witnessed substantial growth in 2007-08

by 20% to touch Rs 8,079 crore and the ROUTER AND SWITCHES
expected growth rate in the next fiscal
year would be around 28-32%.. - Demand for IP VPN and broadband internet
traffic will drive the market of routers and
- The gigantic steps taken by the switches. Convergence of voice, video and
government to bridge the digital divide, applications is driving huge investments into
diversify e-governance schemes, and high performance networks. Convergence
increase PC penetration have of services will bring even more traffic to IP
contributed dramatically to this growth networks, which will support IP router growth
well into the future.
- The technology for the enterprise and
service industry in India is moving Figure 15 - Growth in Switch Market (Rs. Cr.)
towards total convergence of voice, data, 3000
video, and security. Compliance, multi- 2500

protocol label switching, unified
e
communications, and data centers are r 2000
ro
C
s
the new trends of the day R
n
i
1500
ze
i
S
te
kr
- There is a definite shift towards the way a 1000
M
enterprises are looking at their sourcing
500
strategies. Multi-sourcing is increasingly
being looked at as a key trend by 0
enterprises to manage their networks. 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-20082008-2009 (E)
Enterprises in India will be undertaking

technology to upgrade their IT - The biggest revenue stream for this
infrastructure, to ensure adoption of segment in the domestic market will
innovation through technologies like continues to be from banking, retail, data
unified communications, new security centers and government organizations.
management protocols, etc. Router market will witness a growth of
28.4% to touch Rs. 2324.84Cr while
switches market will reach Rs. 2600 Cr.
CONCLUSION
The sharing of infrastructure has played a vital role in reducing the capital expenditure and the
operating costs, which in turn has helped operators maintain margins in a highly competitive
market like India. The primary reasons for sharing being crucially indispensable, is because it helps
operators minimize input costs, tariffs and increase teledensity. With 3G on the verge of being
deployed in India there are speculations round the corner that spectrum sharing will be enforced
upon operators, due to low availability of spectrum for the players. Will it be implemented shall be
seen only in the time to come.

CONSUMER
ELECTRONICS
SCOPE
Consumer electronics refer to a broad range of electronic equipment intended for everyday
domestic use by people. The categories included here are Mobile Handsets, PCs, Laptops, ,
Gaming Consoles and Digital Cameras.
ANALYSIS
The overall revenue earned through the sales followed by Sony Ericsson. As Samsung
of audio, video and gaming consoles plans to leverage its Chennai Facility and
constitute the international consumer come up with new innovative models, it is
electronics market..Hence let us look at the expected to hold onto its number three spot,
key components which would shape up the in the predicted period. However, in the near
CE market. future, Motorola would get back to the
drawing board and refocus on its strategies
for the Indian hand set market, to survive the
MOBILE HANDSETS competition.
For years, FMCG companies ruled the minds New services like Navigational Maps, Digital
of the Indian Consumers as being the most entertainment solutions, Music, etc. would
trusted brands. But it comes as no surprise enhance a consumer's willingness to acquire
that Nokia has emerged as the top brand in new models of mobile phones. Technologies
India, today. Consumers not only expect like built-in cameras, better memory, radio,
voice services on their mobile phones but the latest messaging services, and colour
equally valued personal time planning displays will continue to influence consumer
properties in their choice of new mobile decisions to acquire new models.
phones. These high-rated features include
calendar and e-mail services. Mere The Enterprise customers would look forward
introduction of 3G phones itself will not see an to better smart phones, which would have
uptake of 3G handsets unless there are larger screen size, storage space and battery
supporting services to attract the customers. life. On the other hand, replacement of
handsets is going to be immense in the bigger
The phenomenon of choosing familiar brands cities. It is not far, when the carriers and
would continue while choosing mobile handset manufacturers will follow Nokia and
phones. However the availability of Chinese Apple's strategy of opening up products to
handsets in the markets, which are almost third-party developers. Widespread third-
one fifth of the prices of the original ones, party applications will keep users engaged
would attract the lower income group of and interested, while utilizing data plans they
mobile consumers. First time buyers in small purchase and potentially upgrade to more
towns and the rural segment will drive the expensive plans. Despite tepid interests of
market growth. Due to its strong retail the mass market to buy expensive phones,
presence, Nokia will emerge as the market there is an increasing demand for smarter
leader in the coming year too, being closely connected devices, as demonstrated by the
3
sale of more than 10,000 iPhones till date, in mobile phones, which already have
India. Although subsidization will continue to become a status symbol and an
be important for the lower end market and will extension of one's personality.
appeal to some, on the higher end market,
offering more advanced unsubsidized
devices will prove beneficial.
LAPTOP MARKET
The advent of mobile consumer who is

constantly connected to the content and
information will lead to unprecedented
growth. According to analysts, laptop
shipments rose 21 percent to a total of 31.6
million units, while desktops sales dropped 4
percent to a total of 35 million units. We DIGITAL CAMERAS
believe that globally, 2008 will be the first year
when notebook sales will exceed desktop As Indian consumers move closer towards a
sales and by 2011, we expect laptops to digital lifestyle, it is expected that the market
represent 66 percent of corporate purchases, for digital cameras is expected to witness an
with 71 percent of consumers picking a upward growth for the next couple of years.
notebook instead of a tower. Some of the key Till the previous year it was noted that in India
drivers for this adoption of Laptops are as 2 out of 5 cameras, which were sold to
under: consumers, were through the grey market.
However, a decline in the share of sales of
- New retail outlet environments/ cameras from the grey market is estimated
multibrand retail outlets where the due to the growing awareness among
consumer has the ability to touch and potential buyers, customs duty relaxation and
see the new top line models and aggressive marketing and promotions by
personally choose those devices which camera companies. These factors will ensure
suit him uniquely, has been an that the daily consumer is aware of the
instrumental part of the buying process technology and is also looking forward to
more features and services through the
- Enterprise mobility is a major device. Falling prices have aroused the
contributing factor to the notebooks interest of many and have made the devices
popularity and has become a main available even to a larger audience. As the
reason why the desktops are becoming lifestyle of the consumers' is constantly
obsolete products. changing, the need to see pictures instantly,
differently and affordably, would further drive
- The enterprise consumers now expect the retail boom, giving the fillip to the digicam
their end user client devices to be market.
equipped with video and data, and as
laptops deliver this effectively they are We predict that the new emerging digicam
being preferred to desktops market would see today's high end cameras
becoming the entry levels of tomorrow. The
- The overall consumption in the PC high end digital SLR cameras are still found to
market will be led by telecom, banking, be way more costly than their analog
financial service sectors, education and counterparts; hence, for efficient adoption of
BPO/IT-enabled services, and the e- digital SLR cameras by photographers and
governance initiatives of the Union and corporate houses a positive price reduction is
the state governments. expected. The Companies would also aim at
the purchasing power of the youth which
- They are traversing the same path of would act as a catalyst to drive the mid and
high end segments by early 2009. As the next

year approaches we would see that the digital - Innovative gaming content, user friendly
camera vendors are no longer dangling their controllers, strong word of mouth, drive
carrots in front of the customer with top of the to make games a more social
line photographic cameras, but rather phenomenon by the vendors, will
innovating themselves to help consumers enhance people's interest and
save, organize and share their digital accessibility of the consoles to a larger
memories. To enable the same efforts, segment of the population.
clubbing printers along with digicams will also
be looked at very seriously. To summarize, it - A significant short supply of consoles
is expected that the digital lifestyles and the (around 44 Million) when compared to
increasing disposable income of people the demand (190 Million) will further push
would bolster the sales of digital cameras in the vendors to eradicate the gaps
the near future. between the demand and supply.
- Due to high prices of consoles in the

emerging markets the consoles would
GAMING CONSOLES not be sold to its maximum potential. To
push the sales globally the vendors
Gone are the days when video game would go for price reduction strategies.
consoles were treated as “kid's toys”. The We predict that the vendors would drop
Consoles of today are emerging as a critical their prices from $299 to $199 per
platform for the distribution of digital content. console to make it affordable for further
They have made a significant impact on the adoption.
consumer's purchase for home based
consumer electronics products. Today's - Emerging markets like India and Africa
consoles have already started competing would drive the sales of Global vendors,
with the television, movie DVD's, movie only if there is a wide variety of games
Theatres and other entertainment options. available along with a strong third party
The big Vendors of the Gaming Console publisher support.
industry (Nintendo Wii, Sony Playstation 3,
Microsoft XBOX 360) have different - As Vendors like Sony, who have a
definitions and approaches to the market significant installed base through their
worldwide. While Nintendo believes that previous product offerings like PSP and
Consoles in the near future will transform into PS2, would try to push for the PS3 in
home entertainment systems, Microsoft order to achieve multi console
believes in digital content distribution through relationships with their customers,
the consoles and Sony likes to surf the wave Microsoft and Wii would try for “must
of the future by constantly innovating itself have” game titles under their belt to soar
between its physical and digital distribution their monthly sales.
techniques.
- Blu-Ray discs will prove as an enabler
The independent Gaming consoles providing for the adoption of next generation
home entertainment to its consumers, will consoles. The days are not distant, when
attract the mobile and television studios, consumers can expect bundled offers of
broadcast and cable networks as they too consoles and HDTV's or even
share the vision that the entertainment sector advertising on the console space.
does, while the gaming consoles are not
limited to the consoles alone, but, are
gateways to digital homes of the future. Some Hence, as we progress in to the next year we
of the key drivers for faster adoption of can expect the global vendors spending
Gaming consoles globally would be due to significant time and money on creating strong
below mentioned factors: third party publisher supports along with
reduction of prices and additionally focusing
more on customer experience than

innovation in technology. Despite Nintendo, Due to attractive pricing, strong gaming titles
Wii entering the market a year later than the and emphasis on games as a social event by
Xbox 360 and facing a formidable opponent Wii, it would ensure that they are the market
in Sony, Nintendo has succeeded in leader for the year 2009.
becoming the market leader for the first time
in more than a decade by redefining the
gaming experience to appeal to everyone.
CONCLUSION
The revolution brought about by Digital technology has enabled the consumer electronics sector
to profit from the growing interaction of digital applications such as: camcorders, DVD
player/recorder, still camera, computer monitor, LCD TV etc. It has also witnessed the
emergence of mobile telecommunications technology, incorporating both digital visual and
digital MP3 capabilities. The computer industry has also benefited by being able to make its way
into the consumer's living rooms. HDTV's with VGA connections and SD/MMC card slots,
personal media players, and Microsoft-based Media Center PCs have brought the two
industries even closer together than before.

CONVERGENCE
INTRODUCTION
For the modern day Telcos, the market for traditional telephony, regardless of being fixed or
mobile, is becoming increasingly saturated to the extent that it can no longer be a viable,
exclusive source of growth. On the other hand, the emerging convergence of telecom with
sectors unseen till now, has brought a plethora of opportunities and threats- as telecom
operators would be kept on their toes to battle with a wide array of new competitors, including,
traditional media companies, information technology players and even industries pertaining to
financial services.
The word “Differentiation” has become challenging, with technology being laregly commoditized
and accessible to all players in the market. To successfully face this challenge, the modern day
operators do believe in leveraging the telecom-media convergence to develop a sustainable and
unique competitive advantage in their respective markets. In particular, the report highlights that
there are a number of opportunities for telecom operators, Cable TV Operators, Handset
Makers, Film Distributors, VAS players, and Internet Service Providers in leveraging the
potential of telecom-media convergence - a summary of the details follows below:
ANALYSIS
MOBILE ENTERTAINMENT companies by providing services like

content repurposing. This will lead to the
growth of short form of content, catering
It is expected that the mobile entertainment to mobile subscribers.
market is expected to increase threefold to $
64bn globally by 2012. The Indian mobile - First signs of transformation of the Mobile
entertainment market will be worth $403.13 Entertainment value chain will be visible
mn in 2008 and $2.24 bn by 2013. As mobile in the coming years with content
music and games take a large pie of the providers and aggregators looking to
mobile entertainment at this given point, the circumvent the operators by employing
days are not far off, where innovative physical distribution, preloaded models
entertainment options will percolate down to and tie-ups with handset manufacturers.
the mobile devices. We expect the Mobile
entertainment industry to undergo certain Meanwhile on the TV distribution- one of the
transformations and trends in the forecasted key zones in the entertainment sector space,
period. would witness a strong growth as many
emerging and developed markets are
- The Roll out of 3G services in India will launching dedicated mobile broadcasts
enhance the increase in demand for networks within the forecasted period.
entertainment and content related
services on the mobile platform.
TV DISTRIBUTION
- VAS Players would look to transform
themselves into digital entertainment
Mobile TV is emerging as one of the fastest
3
growing sectors in the new range of television FILM DISTRIBUTION
services with Asia, Europe and the US all
showing signs of a desire to watch TV on the From celluloid prints to digital format, the
move using mobile devices. At the moment, Indian cinema and its distribution channel has
Japan is the world's leader in direct mobile really come a long way. But now, Indian
television, with over 20 million mobile phones cinema is moving ahead and slowly turning a
thought to be equipped with television new leaf in the distribution network with
receivers and capable of receiving signals. satellite distribution of movies.
South Korea is not too far behind, with 8.2 India is a country with diverse geographical
million mobile phones in use with the similar conditions and difficult terrains. Therefore,
capability. Worldwide, the number of people satellite delivery takes care of all logistical
who view mobile TV is estimated to be problems associated with film distribution and
around 29.7 million, although this is expected exhibition.
to double by the end of 2008.
- Innovations in the cinema Distribution
Asia may be leading the way, but Europe and space and the rise of digital cinema
America are gradually catching up. In India would spin the demand for satellite
there are significant trends expected in this equipments and bandwidth, giving rise to
sector: opportunities for Telcos.
- Mobile TV rollouts will see increased - Emergence of HD content will put more
competition between media and telecom strain on bandwidth requirement, leading
players due to lesser investments the broadcasters and cable operators to
needed on ground infrastructure. explore opportunities for tie-ups with
Telcos and independent fibre providers.
- Mobile TV offering on DVB-H /non 3G
technologies will see greater adoption
by media companies as investment on ISP's
ground infrastructure is lesser than 3G
services infrastructure. As some of the regulations come in favour of
achieving Convergence, India's leading cable
- Media and entertainment companies operators and telcos have begun rolling out
opting for individual rollout of Mobile TV triple play, a converged service of telephone,
services will opt for non 3G technologies broadband Internet and television. There is a
like DVB-H. huge market to be tapped; on the other hand
competition is immense. Below mentioned
- Incumbent Media and Entertainment are a few predictions about the future
companies in the TV distribution space scenario:
will look to consolidate with multiples of - ISP's and digital cable providers will
MSO and LCO in the cable space under compete in Triple Play services market
single HITS technology, which will open with ISPs looking to provide iTV, IPTV,
up variegated offerings, spurring the VOD and cable providers with voice and
demand for satellite bandwidth. Internet by mid 2009.
- Increased Merger and Acquisition - This will lead to increased Mergers and
activities would be witnessed in the Acquisitions between ISPs and cable
Cable segment with both Telcos and operator, consolidation in the ISP market
M&E looking to acquire smaller LSO and and increased investments in network
infusing fund for digitizing cable network. expansion, Triple play up-gradation and
adoption of new technologies like HITS.
Even the network architectures will start to
see some changes as WiMAX and DVB-H ? Telcos are better poised to take a lion's
based mobile TV offering will begin to share of the convergence market due to
challenge the supremacy of telcos on the existing networks and high capital

assets. features being rolled into new age
devices.
- Telcos will look to integrate their voice
and data services with bundled content - The mobile device will be used by
packages and provide it under a consumers for capturing and generating
converged billing scheme. content which will enhance the demand
for storage requirements in the new age
It will be further seen that the Telcos business handsets.
models will evolve to include content based
services. Seamless integration of content - Initial Applications for advertising and
with data services will emerge as a key transaction related activities would start
differentiator. gaining acceptance in mobile devices.
WIRELESS NGN
Wireless represents the fastest growing
segment of the telecom industry. It will
undergo a change as 3G wireless emerges
over the next year. At the same time, NGN
represents a fundamental paradigm shift in
wire line and core networks from circuit to
packet switching. The two will become highly
synergized over time and wireless-NGN
integration will be both technically and
economically feasible immediately.
- Wireless Technology like Wimax SERVICES CONVERGENCE

providers would need to accommodate
content delivery options along with data Convergence of services and applications
related services. implies that the same service can be
accessed from different types of terminals, for
- Forward Looking Media and example, sending messages from a mobile
Entertainment Companies would look to phone to a PC or browsing the internet from a
invest in wireless domain to gain control handheld mobile phone and through different
over content distribution networks. types of networks cable TV, mobile or a fixed
line.
The drive for increased ARPU for Telcos and
DEVICE CONVERGENCE the search for new platforms to deliver
content from Media and Entertainment
As Indian subscribers are heading towards a players would lead to emergence of niche
mobile convergence, the devices would also enabler services in the convergence domain.
see a convergence at their level. The devices These services include Digitisation, META-
will transform themselves with unique tagging, DRM, Content Repurposing,
features like a camera, MP3 player, GPS, Mastering, Content Redistribution etc.
game console, and overall super-gadgets. Leading VAS Players would move up the
Some of the events which would shape up value chain to provide the above mentioned
the devices in 2009 are predicted below: services to transform services to digital
entertainment enablers and thus become a
- Increased integration of multimedia and vital link in Telecom-Media Convergence.
content management features will be Traditional Media service providers in
seen in consumer mobile devices and broadcasting and film post production
business segment would see increased segment will look to tie up with International
data management and connectivity and domestic enterprise bandwidth providers
3
to garner a larger share of the international
media/Films services market. They will also
aim to provide new content distribution
related services in the near future.
CONCLUSION
In this era where nothing is stable, we will be a witness to changing business models. One would
experience changing revenue models where TV distribution platforms (IPTV, DTH, etc.) will look
beyond traditional revenue sources like subscription and carriage fees to value added services
(PVR/DVR), advertising and transactions to shore up the bottom line. The traditional value chains
will undergo further fragmentation and niche players providing services related to acquiring,
managing and distributing content will emerge eventually. Early signs of snacking, place shifting
and any time media based consumption patterns would become visible in the Indian market
towards the last two quarters when one looks at the consumption patterns of the consumers in
convergence. The search for differential content based services by Telcos and alternate delivery
models by Media companies will lead to the emergence of new product/service offerings.
Outsourcing and Manpower Shortage will be an issue and the industry needs to carefully keep a
watch on it Skills and manpower shortage plaguing the media companies will intensify over the
next year, especially in the new media and convergence sector. With such sea of changes the
convergence market definitely brings forth opportunities galore, but, it also lays obstacles in front of
the Media conglomerates and Telecom business houses.

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 - GDP Growth rates (Brazil, China, India and Russia) 9
FIgure 2- GDP Growth Rates (USA, UK and Euro Zone) 10
Figure 3 - Growth Rates of Sectors and Indian GDP 11
Figure 4 - Worldwide Data Services Revenue 14
Figure 5 - Global Mobile Video/ Broadcast TV Market opportunity 15
Figure 6 - Indian Telecom Subscriber base 18
Figure 7 - Circle wise Subscriber Growth 24
Figure 8 - MVAS Breakup 25
Figure 9 - SMS Volumes and Revenue 25
Figure 10 - Growth of Broadband Subscribers 27
Figure 11 -Technology wise Broadband Subscribers 28
Figure 12 - Mobile OS Market Growth 32
Figure 13 - Growth of towers 35
Figure 14 - Router Market Growth 36
Figure 15 - Switch Market Growth 37
Figure 16 - Laptop and Desktop Sales 39
3
REFERENCES &
ABBREVIATIONS
ABBREVIATIONS VAS - Value Added Services

VISTA - Venezuela, Indonesia, South Africa, Taiwan,
ADC - Access Deficit Charge Argentina
ADSL - Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line VOIP - Voice over Internet Protocol
AGR - Adjusted Gross Revenue VSAT - Very Small Aperture Terminal
ARPU - Average Revenue Per User W-CDMA - Wideband Code Division Multiple Access
ATM - Asynchronous Transfer Mode WIMAX - Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave
BRIC - Brazil,Russia,India,China Access
BSS - Business Support System
REFERENCES
BWA - Broadband Wireless Access
CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate NEWS SERVICES
CAS - Conditional Access System
CDMA - Code Division Multiple Access Times News Network
CRM - Customer Relationship Management Press Trust of India
CRR - Cash Reserve Ratio Reuters
DVB-H - Digital Video Broadcasting-Handheld Business Standard
DWDM - Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing
ERP - Enterprise Resource Planning WEBSITES
EVDO - Evolution Data Only
FDI - Foreign Direct Investment www.allafrica.com
FTTH - Fiber To The Home www.altera.com
HDTV - High Definition Television www.business-standard.com
HITS - Head end In The Sky www.convergedigest.com
HSDPA - High Speed Downlink Packet Access www.delloitte.com
HSUPA - High Speed Uplink Packet Access www.economictimes.com
HSPA - High Speed Packet Access www.economist.com
ILD - International Long Distance www.ednindia.com
IPTV - Internet Protocol Television www.expresscomputeronline.com
IUC - Interconnect Usage Charge www.financialexpress.com
LLU - Local Loop Unbundling www.ftthcouncil.org
LTE - Long Term Evolution www.gulfnews.com
MNP - Mobile Number Portability www.heavyreading.com
MPLS - Multi Protocol Level Switching www.ibef.org
NGN - Next Generation Networks www.idc.com
NMS - Network Management Solution www.infonetics.com
OFC - Optical Fiber Cable www.indiabudget.nic.in
OFDM - Orthogonal Frequency Division www.ispai.in/Stat3-
Multiplexing InternetsubsTechnologywWise.php
RA - Revenue Assurance www.ispreview.co.uk
SaaS - Software as a Service Www.livemint.com
SOA - Service Oriented Architecture www.mait.com
TDM - Time Division Multiplexing www.oecd.org
TDMA - Time Division Multiple Access www.rbi.org.in
USO - Universal Service Obligation www.satellitetoday.com

ABOUT SITM
We are a techno-management business school that has

remarkably evolved into a center for learning excellence in
the Information and Communication Technology (ICT)
domain. We have a short history of no less than ten evolving
years which had made our presence felt in the ICT industry.
Over nine hundred of our alumni are tirelessly contributing to
the growth of organizations throughout the ICT value chain
in India and abroad.
The intensive course framework designed to equip future

managers with the knowledge of General Management,
Telecom Technologies, Finance, Software, Marketing,
Branding and a deeper understanding of Market Dynamics
so that we evolve in perfect managers with ability to handle
the work effectively. The learned and eminent members of
our Board of Studies keep our curriculum contemporary
through biannual revisions.
The gurus of SITM are a potent mix of academicians,

domain experts and practicing professionals. The future
managers are endowed with experiences beyond
knowledge by being exposed to workshops, moral
rearmament camp, industry exhibitions and various
national level events. Apart from academics, our students
and faculty work closely together for various committees.
Every student has an active exposure to committee
activities. Hence we have ample opportunity to refine
crucial managerial and organizational skills like
accountability, teamwork, work breakdown / allocation,
business communication, contingency planning, and
change and crisis management. This ability is put to test
and refined to the utmost in all SITM events.
The intensive course framework designed to equip future

managers with the knowledge of General Management,
Telecom Technologies, Finance, Software, Marketing,
Branding and a deeper understanding of Market Dynamics
so that we evolve in perfect managers with ability to handle
the work effectively. The learned and eminent members of
our Board of Studies keep our curriculum contemporary
through biannual revisions.
3
TEAM PREVISION `09
CORE TEAM VERTICALS
STUDENT INCHARGE ECONOMY TELECOM SOFTWARE

Malcolm Patel Saurabh Sinha Nimit Tiwari
Abhinav Purohit Dinkar Tripathi
TECHNOLOGY CORE TEAM Amit Taneja Gauram Barde
Ananda Gaurav Mehta Manish Rastogi
Irfan Sheikh Nitin Gautam Utpal Vatsa
Pranab Gupta Parikshit Andhare
Sankalp Desai BROADBAND
STATISTICS CORE TEAM Peeyush Kheria
Rohit Mahto GLOBAL TELECOM Ananda
Yash Desai Nikhil Suhaney Bhavesh Maisuria
Parikshit Andhare Ajay Raghav Bhargav Desai
Vinay Salvi Irfan Sheikh
MARKETING CORE TEAM Adarsh Thakur Pranab Gupta
Ravi Vasnani
Sankalp Desai INDIAN TELECOM COMMUNICATION
Mayank Majumdar Hiren Rupani INFRASTRUCTURE
Anuj Nagori Harikrishnan AB
Manish Luthra Amit Agarwal
Meeta Gedam Sharanya V
Mohneesh Burde Sudeep S Rawat
Priyanka Shah Sumit Ganjoo
Vikas Chhimpa
MOBILITY
Rohit Mahto CONSUMER
Alok Rajput ELECTRONICS
Amey Darvekar Sumant Sharma
Mayank Mehta Archit Goel
Rohit Mishra Malcolm Patel
We thank our alumni for their Mayank Majumdar
valuable inputs TELECOM Swapnil Choudhry
TECHNOLOGIES Yash Desai
We would also like to thank, Sunil Kumar
Adarsh Thakur Devender Singh SPECIAL FEATURE
Divyesh Kumar Siddhartha Dasgupta CONVERGENCE
Peeyush Kheria Swati Haridas Ajay Raghav
from Web & Tech Team, SITM Taru Gupta Ananda
Vivek Hingad Dipak Takodara
Siddhartha Dasgupta from the Irfan Sheikh
Editorial Team, SITM Ria Desai
Sudeep S Rawat

Knowledge, Networking, Opportunities for Wealth Creation
Empowering professionals and energising companies for rapid growth.
3G
MMS SMS
GSM LBS
VAS NXN
IPTV
VOIP
GPRS ARPU
Iphone WIMAX
Mobile Handset
Mobile OS Triple Play
Broadband Embedded
Convergence Mobile Health
Mobile Education Mobile Advertising
Mobile Entertainment
To get the lastest updates about the Telecom Industry

Visit http://itvidya.com and http://itvidya.com/telecom or
Email to us at telecom@itvidya.com to subscribe to our free Telecom Newsletter.
SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF TELECOM MANAGEMENT
SYMBIOSIS KNOWLEDGE VILLAGE,
NEAR LUPIN RESEARCH PARK , VILLAGE LAVALE,
MULSHI TAHSIL , PUNE, MAHARASHTRA,
INDIA 411 042
+91 20 3911 6170 / 80

+91 20 3911 6181
SITM.FORECAST@GMAIL.COM
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SITM ANNUAL TELECOM FORECAST 2009

SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF TELECOM MANAGEMENT

the point is to discover them

Prévision - SITM Annual Telecom Forecast 2009

Kundan Das Sumant S. V.

Aniruddha Harne Statistical Consultant BROADBAND 27

Santosh S V Student In Charge SPECIAL FEATURE - CONVERGENCE 42

ONLINE PARTNERS MEDIA PARTNERS

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management.

SITM is the first educational institution in Asia

One such effort is Prévision, SITM's Annual

This involves accumulating inputs from

It is the only effort of its kind in the telecom

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune

ECONOMY GLOBAL TELECOM

INDIAN TELECOM TELECOM TECHNOLOGIES

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune

STATISTICAL MODELS USED FOR FORECASTING

Time Series Analysis

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune

EXCHANGE RATES Fed rates will remain on hold for a prolonged

EUR/USD rates are expected to remain in the Continuous weakening of US financial

38 © 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune

Economic outlook in Europe is deemed,

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 3

Nigeria is expected to witness a very high FDI

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 113

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 133

The wireline broadband market is expected to MIDDLE EAST

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 315

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 173

- Mobile subscriber base is expected to

- The total subscriber base is expected to

- Continuous incentives by government to

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 193

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 213

As India awaits the roll out of 3G due to delay

India has more than 70% Indian households

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 233

MOBILE VALUE ADDED SERVICES

The current MVAS market (as of June 2008)

- Operators are looking forward to a higher

- With the emergence of 3G based hand-

The number of Wireless internet subscribers

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 253

Analysis has shown that in places with

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 273

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 293

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 313

In the past the smartphone OS market was

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 333

ACTIVE INFRASTRUCTURE - IP-based and legacy services co-exist in

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 353

- Considering all the above stated facts,

DTH - Pushed by competitive pressures and

36 © 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune

video, and security. Compliance, multi- 2500

Enterprises in India will be undertaking

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 373

The advent of mobile consumer who is

© 2008, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune 393