Wind Turbine Installation Systems Engineering Approach:

Project Planning, Risk Assessment, and Mitigation

ENGR 530
Andrew Lyle
April 26, 2011
Table of Contents

Abstract.................................................................................................1

Project Description...............................................................................1

Overview of Proposed Risk Management Process.............................1

Risk Identification and Analysis..........................................................2

Current Status and Plans.....................................................................4

Appendix A............................................................................................5
Abstract

My green power consulting company has been asked by a private landowner in Wellington,
Colorado to evaluate the potential output of a wind turbine and possibly install a wind turbine if the
land proves to be ideal for the placement. At this point of the project we have collected wind power
data for one year from a 20m Anemometer and analyzed the data using Windographer to determine the
power density of the site and extrapolate the data to forecast the power output of various wind turbine
models. Based on our findings the landowner has chosen to initiate the wind turbine installation.

Project Description

We have been contracted by a land owner in Wellington, Colorado to conduct a feasibility

analysis on the productivity of a wind turbine placed on their property and possibly install the turbine.
Wellington has been identified as a site with known quality wind power and we were hired to quantify
and forecast the actual wind conditions an possible power output at this specific location. The
landowner expressed an interest in lowering their utility bills and minimizing their environmental
impact by installing a renewable power source. After a year of collecting data including wind speed,
temperature, and wind direction using a 20m anemometer we have concluded that the land does appear
to be a positive location for the placement of a wind turbine and have developed a project plan for the
land owner detailing the systems life including possible risks. We provided the landowner with a
comprehensive project plan including the various risks associated with the project such as financial,
environmental, and mechanical aspects of the project. The financial risks of the project included
funding availability of the turbine and the power generation. The environmental risks included impact
on wildlife, visual impacts, and the risks associated with permitting the installation. Finally, the
mechanical risks included those such as the reliability and life expectancy of the turbine. While we
have performed cursory risk management in past projects, we feel like a better understanding of the
risk management process would be beneficial to our group and will be documenting our process and
progress during this project, culminating in a review process at the completion of he project to asses
our successes and failures.

Overview of Systems Engineering Process

The goal of systems engineering is to create a successful project by taking a holistic approach to
the design and implementation of a unique project by gaining input from all shareholders and
addressing problems. These problems are called risks and are categorized in two ways, known
unknowns and unknown unknowns. These risks are then analyzed and plans are taken to approach
each risk. This risk analysis process involves using what is referenced to as the “simple risk model”,
which involves separating the risk event and the risk driver. The risk event is the risk (positive or
negative) that occurs, which is distinctly different from the driver. The driver is defined as the
underlying reason that causes the risk to happen. This separation of risks and drivers is especially
important as it allows risk mitigation to focus on the underlying causes, creating more specific and
effective actions to occur. Once the major risk events and drivers are identified we assigned
probabilities to each situation along with outcomes to develop the expected outcome. We found the
expected outcome especially important as it allowed us to not only prioritize risks but determine how
much insurance, be it reserve funding or time slack in the schedule, to assign to the project. A diagram
of the simple risk model can be seen below.
Figure 1: Simple Risk Model

Risk Identification and Analysis

Our company has had experience installing multiple wind turbines at locations across Northern
Colorado and has amassed enough data and personal experience to accurately develop a risk map for
projects of this type. The goal for developing a risk map is twofold; first, it allows our team to gain
insight into the major threats to our project. These threats can be mitigated, avoided, and monitored so
that their impacts can be minimized. By monitoring the risks throughout the project we can work to
make decisions that are informed by the risks and work to minimize their impact, working to minimize
the unknown unknowns, project duration, cost, and maximize performance. The second major reason
for identification of risks early in the process and maintaining their visibility throughout the project is
for communication purposes. By presenting the risks to the stakeholders early on, major surprises that
may jeopardize the life of the project are minimized as their existence has been accounted for and all
parties were informed of their possibility and prepared to encounter and overcome them. Full
disclosure of risks greatly increases a projects completion and increases stakeholder satisfaction, even
when negative events occur during the project. From past experience and a brainstorming session with
all the stakeholders, the following risk identification table along with developed.

Table 1: Risk Identification and Impact

Risk ID Risk Event Probability of risk event (Pe) Impact

1 Permit not granted 0.02 Project Canceled
2 Permit not granted 0.01 Project Canceled
3 Lack of Suitable Installation Site 0.02 Project Canceled
4 Property Owner Unable to Secure Financing 0.05 Project Delayed
5 Lack of Turbine Supply 0 Project Delayed
6 Lack of Qualified Installers 0.05 Project Delayed
7 Current Rebates Are Canceled 0.2 Project Canceled
8 Incorrect Material Delivery 0.02 Project Delayed
9 Soil Sample Results Incorrect 0.01 Project Delayed
10 Adverse Weather Conditions 0.1 Project Delayed
11 Equipment Failure During Installation 0.15 Project Delayed
12 Installation Worker Injury 0.02 Project Delayed/Insurance Claim
13 Lack of Wind 0.25 Energy Produced Less Than Predicted
14 Lack of Maintenance 0.75 Turbine Failure
15 Low Quality Turbine 0.25 Turbine Failure

Table 2: Risk Driver and Total Loss

Risk ID Probability of Impact (Pi)Driver Total Loss (Lt)
1 1 Neighbor Complaints 5 Days Administrative, 10 Days Engineering
2 1 Negative Environmental Impact 5 Days Administrative, 10 Days Engineering
3 1 Negative Soil Sample Results 5 Days Administrative, 10 Days Engineering
4 0.75 Lack of Property Owner Planning 10 Days Administrative, 10 Days Engineering
5 1 Large National Turbine Demand 10 Days Administrative, 10 Days Engineering
6 0.66 Poor Workforce Pool/Large Local Demand 5 Days Administrative, 15 Days Engineering
7 0.5 Lack of Government Funding 5 Days Administrative, 10 Days Engineering
8 0.33 Improper Communication/Poor Supplier Management 5 Days Installation Crew, 2 Days Engineering
9 0.66 Lack of Experience from Soil Sampling Engineer 5 Days Installation Crew, 5 Days Engineering
10 0.5 Poor Forecasting/Planning. 2 Days Installation Crew
11 0.66 Low Material Quality/Poor Installation 1 Day Administrative, 4 Days Installation
12 0.66 Lack of Worker Experience/Training/Oversight 1 Day Administrative, 1 Days Installation, $500 Deductible
13 1 Insufficient Data Collected Prior to Installation 50% of expected output over 20 years, $8600
14 0.5 Lack of Owner Knowledge/Initiative 50% of expected Lifetime, $12,500 (50% of original cost of $25,000 for Turbine.
15 0.75 Lack of Research/Cost Cutting Measures. 50% of expected Lifetime, $12,500 (50% of original cost of $25,000 for Turbine.

Table 3: Risks and Expected Loss

Risk ID Total Loss (Lt) $ Expected Loss (Le)

1 $5,250.00 $105.00
2 $5,250.00 $52.50
3 $5,250.00 $105.00
4 $6,500.00 $243.75
5 $6,500.00 $6.50
6 $7,250.00 $239.25
7 $5,250.00 $525.00
8 $2,300.00 $15.18
9 $3,500.00 $23.10
10 $600.00 $30.00
11 $1,450.00 $143.55
12 $1,050.00 $13.86
13 $8,600.00 $2,150.00
14 $12,500.00 $4,687.50
15 $12,500.00 $2,343.75
TOTALS $10,683.94

Table 3: Conversion Between Days and Dollars

Planning/Engineering, ($/Day) $400.00

Installation Crew ($/Day) $300.00
Administrative ($/Day) $250.00

We started our risk analysis session by gathering together a group of individuals and
stakeholders including members from our team with a wide range of experience including members of
the engineering, administrative, and installation staff along with the prospective wind turbine owner so
that we could develop an accurate list of the possible risks that we would encounter. Our first task was
to develop a common metric for quantifying the risk, which we choose as US dollars. Units such as
delay in days could be converted to dollars by using pay rate information (Table 3). From there we
conducted a very open session developing risks with the following rules for defining risks: What the
risk is,why the stated risk would occur (the risk driver), what the cost of the risk occurring would be,
how the cost of that risk was developed, and what and why the probability of that risk was developed.
From there we were able to develop the tables 1 – 3 including the risk identifier, event, impact,
associated probabilities and costs. We decided to use a set of discrete levels of probability for the risks,
1%, 2%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 33%, 50%, 66%, 75%, and 100%, based upon past experiences. These values
correspond to likelihood of event occurring to 1/100, 1/50, 1/20/ 1/10, 1/8, 1/3, ½, 2/3, ¾ and 1/1.
After roughly 100 turbine installations our group felt comfortable with these levels.

Current Status and Plans

At the present time we have presented the project plan along with the risk information to the
land owner and after reviewing the information they have chosen to proceed with the wind turbine
installation. We plan to continue our risk management process throughout the project, including
prioritizing the risks, planning for their resolution, and monitoring the risks throughout the project.
Currently we are in the process of prioritizing the risks so that they risks with the largest probable
impact on the project will receive the most attention, at which point we will decide how to approach the
risk. Some risks may be avoided, some risks may receive their own management plan, and others may
be accepted if it is determined that their impact is sufficiently smaller than their avoidance cost. The
risk management is iterative, and we plan to continue to use the process in all decisions throughout the
project. An example of this is the current major decision as to which turbine to install on the property.
We are working with the property owner to interpret the foretasted power output data of various wind
turbine models along with the unique impact on the risks identified previously to determine the ideal
turbine for this application. In addition, all decisions made during the project will be made with
reference to the risk management plan, with their possible impact on current and possible new risks
investigated. These decisions will include many different variables and inputs from such areas as the
environmental impact of different turbines, the financial components, and the feasibility of installing
the different models on the given site. Data for the performance of the different wind turbines may be
seen in appendix A.
Appendix A: Anemometer Data For the Prospective Site in Wellington, Colorado

Fig 1 - Wind Speed Probabilities

Figure 2 – Foretasted Output for Various Wind Turbine Models