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IndependentStatistics&Analysis

U.S. Energy Information


Administration

June2011

ShortTermEnergyOutlook
June7,2011Release

Highlights

Worldbenchmarkcrudeoilpricesreachedtheirhighestlevelofthisyearatthe
endofApril,fellbyabout10percentbyMay9andhavechangedverylittle
sincethen.EIAstillexpectsoilmarketstotightenthrough2012givenprojected
worldoildemandgrowthandslowinggrowthinsupplyfromcountriesthat
arenotmembersoftheOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries
(OPEC).TheprojectedU.S.refinercrudeoilaverageacquisitioncostrisesfrom
$104perbarrelin2011to$108perbarrelin2012,aboutthesameaslast
monthsOutlook.

BasedontheoutlookfromtheNationalOceanicandAtmospheric
Administration(NOAA)forthecurrentAtlantichurricaneseason,EIA
estimatesmedian(mean)outcomesfortotalshutinproductionintheFederal
GulfofMexico(GOM)duringtheupcominghurricaneseason(Junethrough
November)ofabout19(27)millionbarrelsofcrudeoiland53(78)billioncubic
feet(Bcf)ofnaturalgas(see2011OutlookforHurricaneRelatedProduction
OutagesintheGulfofMexico).Actualshutinsarelikelytodiffersignificantly
fromthisestimatedependingonthenumber,track,andstrengthofhurricanes
astheseasonprogresses.

Regulargraderetailgasolinepriceaveragedabout$3.96pergallonduringthe
firsthalfofMayasunexpectedrefineryoutagesanddisruptionsindistribution
causedbythefloodingoftheMississippiRiveranditstributariestemporarily
counterbalancedtheimpactoflowercrudeoilprices.Inrecentweeks,
gasolinepriceshavebeenfalling,however,astherefinerysituationhasbegun
torecover.EIAexpectstheMayaveragepriceof$3.91pergallonwillbethe
peakmonthlyaveragepricethisdrivingseason.Still,EIAforecaststhatthe
regulargrademotorgasolineretailpricewillaverage$3.75pergallonduring
thissummersdrivingseason(fromApril1throughSeptember30),upfrom
$2.76pergallonlastsummer,but6centspergallonlowerthanlastmonths
Outlook.

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 2011


1

NaturalgasworkinginventoriesendedMay2011at2.2trillioncubicfeet(Tcf),
about10percent,or245billioncubicfeet(Bcf),belowthe2010endofMay
level.EIAexpectsthatworkinggasinventorieswillbuildstronglyduringthe
summerandapproachrecordhighlevelsinthesecondhalfof2011.The
projectedHenryHubnaturalgasspotpriceaverages$4.25permillionBritish
thermalunits(MMBtu)in2011,$0.13perMMBtulowerthanthe2010average.
EIAexpectsthenaturalgasmarkettobegintighteningin2012,withtheHenry
Hubspotpriceincreasingtoanaverageof$4.58perMMBtu.

GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuels
CrudeOilandLiquidFuelsOverview.EIAprojectsthattotalworldoilconsumption
willgrowby1.7millionbarrelsperday(bbl/d)in2011,whichisabout0.3million
bbl/dhigherthanlastmonthsOutlook,primarilybecauseofhigherforecastsof
consumptionforelectricitygenerationinChina,Japan,andtheMiddleEast.
Projectedworldconsumptionincreasesby1.6millionbbl/din2012,unchangedfrom
lastmonthsOutlook.ProjectedsupplyfromnonOPECcountriesincreasesbyan
averageofabout0.6millionbbl/din2011and0.5millionbbl/din2012.

EIAexpectsthatthemarketwillrelyonbothadrawdownofinventoriesand
increasesinproductionfrombothOPECandnonOPECcountriestomeetprojected
demandgrowth.WhileOPECcrudeoilproductiondeclines0.4millionbbl/din2011
becauseofthedisruptionforecasttoLibyanproduction,OPECnoncrudeliquids
productiongrowsby0.6millionbbl/d.EIAexpectstheworldcrudeoilmarketwill
continuetotightenin2012,withforecastOPECcrudeoilproductionincreasingby0.7
millionbbl/dandOPECnoncrudeproductiongrowingby0.4millionbbl/d.

Amongthemajoruncertaintiesthatcouldpushcrudeoilpricesaboveorbelowour
currentforecastare:continuedunrestinproducingcountriesanditspotentialimpact
onsupply;decisionsbykeyOPECmembercountriesregardingtheirproductionin
responsetotheglobalincreaseinoildemand;therateofeconomicgrowth,both
domesticallyandglobally;fiscalissuesfacingnationalandsubnationalgovernments;
andChinaseffortstoaddressconcernsregardingitsgrowthandinflationrates.

GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsConsumption.EIAexpectsthatworldliquidfuels
consumption,whichreachedarecordlevelof86.7millionbarrelsperdayin2010,will
growby1.7millionbbl/din2011andbyanadditional1.6millionbbl/din2012,
resultingintotalworldconsumptionof90.0millionbbl/din2012.Countriesoutside
theOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)willmakeup
almostallofthegrowthinconsumptionoverthenexttwoyears,withthelargest
increasescomingfromChina,Brazil,andtheMiddleEast.Forecastsof2011
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 2011
2

consumptioninChina,Japan,andtheMiddleEastwereraisedby120thousandbbl/d,
80thousandbbl/d,and110thousandbbl/d,respectively,fromlastmonthsOutlook
becauseofhigherexpecteddemandforpetroleumfueledelectricpowergeneration.
EIAnowexpectsconsumptioninChinatoincreaseby700thousandbbl/din2011.

NonOPECSupply.EIAprojectsthatnonOPECcrudeoilandliquidfuelsproduction
willincreaseby590thousandbbl/din2011andby490thousandbbl/din2012.The
greatestincreasesinnonOPECoilproductionduring2011occurinBrazil(130
thousandbbl/d),Canada(170thousandbbl/d),China(140thousandbbl/d),Colombia
(110thousandbbl/d)andcountriesthatwereformerlypartoftheSovietUnion(210
thousandbbl/d).In2012,EIAexpectsproductiongrowthtoremainstronginCanada,
China,Brazil,andColombia,butforecastproductiongrowthintheformerSoviet
Unioncountriesslowsto80thousandbbl/d.OthernonOPECareasareexpectedto
decline,includingadecreaseinNorthSeaproductionof110thousandbbl/din2011
andafurtherdecreaseof200thousandbbl/din2012.

OPECSupply.ForecastOPECcrudeoilproductiondeclinesby370thousandbbl/din
2011,followedbyanincreaseof660thousandbbl/din2012.EIAassumesthatabout
onehalfofLibyaspredisruptionproductionwillresumebytheendof2012.
EstimatedOPECcrudeoilproductionduringthefirstquarterof2011averagedalmost
30millionbbl/d.EIAprojectsthatOPECsurpluscapacitywillfallfrom4.0million
bbl/dattheendof2010to3.6millionbbl/dattheendof2011,followedbyafurther
declineto3.1millionbbl/dbytheendof2012.EstimatedOPECproductionofnon
crudeliquidstotals6.0and6.4millionbbl/din2011and2012,respectively.

OECDPetroleumInventories.EIAexpectsthatOECDinventorieswilldeclinein2011
followingthesteepdropinfloatingstoragethathasalreadyoccurred.Projected
onshoreOECDstocksfallbyabout120millionbarrelsin2011,followedbyan
additional110millionbarreldeclinein2012.Daysofsupply(totalinventories
dividedbyaveragedailyconsumption)dropsfromarelativelyhigh57.9daysduring
thefourthquarterof2010to54.6daysinthefourthquarterof2011,and52.4daysof
supplyinthefourthquarterof2012.

CrudeOilPrices.WTIcrudeoilspotpricesaveraged$103perbarrelinMarch,$110
perbarrelinApril,and$101perbarrelinMay.TheWTIcrudeoilpricewas$113per
barrelatthebeginningofMaybutfellto$97perbarrelbytheendofthefirstweekof
themonth.FortheremainderofMay,WTIpricesfluctuatedwithinarelatively
narrowrangeofbetween$96and$103perbarrel.EIAstillexpectsoilmarketsto
tightenasgrowingliquidfuelsdemandintheemergingeconomiesandslowing
growthinnonOPECsupplymaintainupwardpressureonoilprices.EIAexpects
thatWTIspotprices,whichaveraged$79perbarrelin2010,willaverage$102per
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 2011
3

barrelin2011and$107perbarrelin2012,aboutthesameasexpectedinlastmonths
Outlook(WestTexasIntermediateCrudeOilPriceChart).

GrowingvolumesofCanadiancrudeoilimportedintotheUnitedStatescontributed
torecordhighstoragelevelsatCushing,Oklahomaofover41millionbarrelsatthe
endofMarch2011(86percentofworkingcapacityatCushing),andapricediscount
forWTIcomparedwithsimilarqualityworldcrudessuchasBrent.Adiscountfor
WTIisexpectedtopersistuntiltransportationbottlenecksimpactingthemovementof
midcontinentcrudeoiltotheGulfcoastarerelieved.Consequently,theprojected
U.S.refineraverageacquisitioncostofcrudeoil,whichwasabout$2.70perbarrel
belowWTIin2010,is$1.60perbarrelaboveWTIin2011and$1.10perbarrelabove
WTIin2012.

Energypriceforecastsarehighlyuncertain(EnergyPriceVolatilityandForecast
Uncertainty).WTIfuturesforAugust2011deliveryoverthe5dayperiodendingJune
2averaged$101.49perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged29percent,establishing
thelowerandupperlimitsofa95percentconfidenceintervalforthemarkets
expectationsofmonthlyaverageWTIpricesinJulyof$83perbarreland$124per
barrel,respectively.Lastyearatthistime,WTIforAugust2010deliveryaveraged$75
perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged39percent.Thecorrespondinglowerand
upperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$58perbarreland$97per
barrel.

U.S.CrudeOilandLiquidFuels
U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumption.Totalconsumptionofliquidfuelsincreasedby270
thousandbbl/d(1.4percent)duringthefirstquarter2011overthesameperiodthe
yearbefore(U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumptionGrowthChart).Consumptiongrowth
duringthefirstquarterwasledbydistillatefueloil(160thousandbbl/d)andliquefied
petroleumgas(70thousandbbl/d).Motorgasolineconsumptionfellby50thousand
bbl/d.Consumptiongrowthisexpectedtoslowovertheforecast.ProjectedtotalU.S.
liquidfuelsconsumptionincreasesbyanaverage150thousandbbl/d(0.8percent)in
2011,andbyafurther130thousandbbl/d(0.7percent),to19.4millionbbl/din2012,
whichisstillwellbelowtherecordhigh20.8millionbbl/din2005.Distillatefuel,
buoyedbycontinuedincreasesinindustrialproduction,accountsfortwothirdsofthe
projectedincreaseinliquidfuelsconsumptionin2011.Motorgasolineisthefastest
growingconsumptioncategoryin2012,reflectinggrowingpopulation,rising
employmentandincome,andapredictedendtotherecentsteeprunupinretail
gasolineprices.

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 2011


4

U.S.LiquidFuelsSupplyandImports.Domesticcrudeoilproduction,which
increasedby150thousandbbl/din2010to5.51millionbbl/d,remainsatthatlevelin
2011beforedecliningby80thousandbbl/din2012(U.S.CrudeOilProductionChart).
EIAexpectsthatproductiondeclinesfromtheGOMandAlaskatobeoffsetby
projectedincreasesinlower48nonGOMproductionof230thousandbbl/din2011
and110thousandbbl/din2012becauseofanincreaseinoildirectedonshoredrilling
activity.
BasedontheoutlookfromNOAAforthecurrentAtlantichurricaneseason,EIA
estimatesthemedianoutcomefortotalshutincrudeoilproductionintheGOM
duringtheupcominghurricaneseason(JunethroughNovember)of19millionbarrels
(anaverage105thousandbbl/doverthe6months).Thereisawiderangeof
uncertaintyaroundthisforecast(seethe2011OutlookforHurricaneRelatedProduction
OutagesintheGulfofMexico).Thebulkofoutagesareexpectedduringthelate
summerandearlyfallmonthsofAugust,September,andOctober.
Liquidfuelnetimports(includingbothcrudeoilandrefinedproducts)fellfrom57
percentoftotalU.S.consumptionin2008to49percentin2010,primarilybecauseof
thedeclineinconsumptionduringtherecessionandrisingdomesticproduction.EIA
forecaststhatliquidfuelnetimportswillaverage9.4millionbbl/din2011and9.7
millionbbl/din2012,representing49percentand50percentoftotalconsumption,
respectively.
U.S.PetroleumProductPrices.EIAforecaststhattheannualaverageregulargrade
gasolineretailpricewillincreasefrom$2.78pergallonin2010to$3.60pergallonin
2011andto$3.67pergallonin2012.Thesizablejumpinretailpricesthisyearreflects
notonlythehigheraveragecostofcrudeoil,butalsoanincreaseinU.S.refinery
marginsongasoline(thedifferencebetweenrefinerywholesalegasolinepricesand
theaveragecostofcrudeoil)fromanaverageof$0.34pergallonin2010to$0.47per
gallonin2011,still6to9centspergallonbelowtherecordmarginssetin2006and
2007.UnexpectedshutdownsofU.S.refiningcapacityinMarchandAprilwitha
largedropingasolinestocksontheEastCoast,alongwithfloodingoftheMississippi
riverinMay,contributedtotheincreaseinmarginsthisyear.Theprojectedrefinery
gasolinemargindeclinesto$0.44pergallonin2012.
EIAexpectsthatonhighwaydieselfuelretailprices,whichaveraged$2.99pergallon
in2010,willaverage$3.87pergallonin2011and$3.95pergallonin2012.Projected
U.S.refinerydieselfuelmarginsincreaseby21centspergallon,fromanaverage$0.38
pergallonin2010to$0.59pergallonin2011,thenfallto$0.53pergallonin2012.

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 2011


5

NaturalGas
U.S.NaturalGasConsumption.EIAexpectstotalnaturalgasconsumptionwillgrow
by1.4percentto67.1billioncubicfeetperday(Bcf/d)in2011(U.S.TotalNaturalGas
ConsumptionChart).Forecastindustrialandelectricpowerconsumptionare
expectedtorise3.1percentto18.7Bcf/din2011and0.4percentto20.3Bcf/d,
respectively.Growthintheelectricpowersectorin2011issomewhatmoderatedby
expecteddeclinesincoolingdemand,withforecastedcoolingdegreedaysfalling14.2
percentcomparedwithlastyear.
Projectedtotalconsumptionrisesslightlyin2012to67.2Bcf/d.Growthcontinuesin
theindustrialsectorat1.6percent,asthenaturalgasweightedindustrialproduction
indexrises2.7percent.Consumptionalsoincreasesintheelectricpowersector(2.1
percent).Residentialandcommercialconsumption,however,declineby2.8percent
and2.2percent,respectively,stemmingfromtheforecastdeclineinheatingdemand
fornaturalgas.
U.S.NaturalGasProductionandImports.The2011productionforecasthasbeen
revisedupwardsignificantlydueinparttounexpectedlystrongMarchproduction
reportedinthelatestEIANaturalGasMonthly.TotalU.S.marketednaturalgas
productionisexpectedtoincreaseby4.5percent(to64.6Bcf/d)in2011,upfrom2.3
percent(to63.2Bcf/d)forecastinlastmonthsOutlook.

Productioncontinuestogrowatastrongpacedespiteasignificantdeclineingas
directeddrillingactivity.AccordingtoBakerHughes,totalworkingnaturalgasrigs
nownumber881,down11percentfromtheAugust2010level.However,growthin
oildirecteddrillingactivitycouldleadtosignificantincreasesinassociatednatural
gasproduction.EIAexpectsrisingnaturalgaspricesin2012tocontributetoan
increaseindrillingactivity.

Growingdomesticnaturalgasproductionhasreducedrelianceonnaturalgas
imports,andcontributedtoincreasedexports.EIAexpectsthatpipelinegross
importsofnaturalgaswillfall4.2percentto8.7Bcf/dduring2011andby3.7percent
to8.4Bcf/din2012.IncreasedpipelinegrossexportstoMexicoandCanadaduring
thefirstpartof2011haveledtoanupwardrevisionforboth2011and2012.Pipeline
grossexportsareexpectedtoaverage4.1Bcf/din2011and3.9Bcf/din2012,
comparedtojust3.1Bcfin2010.

EIAprojectsU.S.importsofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)willfallfromanaverage1.2
Bcf/din2010to1.0Bcf/din2011and0.95Bcf/din2012.Becauseoftheearthquakein
Japanandsubsequentnucleargenerationoutages,JapansdemandforLNGasa
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 2011
6

replacementfuelforelectricpowergenerationisexpectedtoincrease,contributingto
higherglobalLNGprices.

U.S.NaturalGasInventories.OnMay27,2011,workingnaturalgasinstoragestood
at2,107Bcf,whichis237BcfbelowlastyearslevelinlateMay(U.S.WorkingNatural
GasinStorageChart).EIAexpectsthatinventories,thoughlowerthanlastyear,will
remainrobustgivenhigherforecastproductionthroughoutthe2011injectionseason.
Projectedinventoriessurpass3.8TcfattheendofOctober2011asaresultofhigh
productionlevelsandamildsummerrelativetolastyear.
U.S.NaturalGasPrices.TheHenryHubspotpriceaveraged$4.31perMMBtuin
May,6centshigherthantheAprilaverageand11centshigherthanforecastinlast
monthsOutlook(HenryHubNaturalGasPriceChart).EIAexpectsthattheHenry
Hubpricewillaverage$4.25perMMBtuin2011,adeclineof13centsfromthe2010
average.EIAexpectsthattheslowinggrowthinproductionwillcontributetoa
tighteningdomesticmarketnextyearwiththeHenryHubpriceaveraging$4.58per
MMBtuin2012.
Uncertaintyovernaturalgaspricesislowerthisyearcomparedtolastyearatthis
time(EnergyPriceVolatilityandForecastUncertainty).Naturalgasfuturesfor
August2011delivery(forthe5dayperiodendingJune2)averaged$4.66perMMBtu,
andtheaverageimpliedvolatilitywas33percent.Thelowerandupperboundsfor
the95percentconfidenceintervalforAugust2011contractsare$3.91perMMBtuand
$5.47perMMBtu.Atthistimelastyear,thenaturalgasAugust2010futurescontract
averaged$4.47perMMBtuandimpliedvolatilityaveraged47percent.The
correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$3.22
perMMBtuand$6.20perMMBtu.
Electricity
U.S.ElectricityConsumption.EIAexpectslittlechangeintotalU.S.electricity
consumptionbetween2010and2011(U.S.TotalElectricityConsumptionChart).
Coolingdegreedaysduring2011areassumedtobe14percentlowerthanlastyear,
whichdrivestheprojected2.5percentdeclineinretailelectricitysalestothe
residentialsector.Improvedeconomicconditionsshouldleadtoa3.6percent
increaseinsalestotheindustrialsector,whilecommercialsectorelectricitysalesshow
littlechangein2011.During2012,totalU.S.electricityconsumptiongrowsby2.0
percent.

U.S.ElectricityGeneration.EIAprojectsthattotalgenerationbytheelectricpower
sectorduring2011willremainclosetolastyearslevel(U.S.ElectricPowerSector
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 2011
7

GenerationGrowthChart).Weathereventshavesignificantlyaffectedgeneration
dispatchingpatternsthisspring.Preliminarydataindicatethathydroelectric
generationduringMarchreacheditshighestlevelsince1999asaresultofheavy
precipitationintheNorthwest,whilestrongthunderstormsandtornadoscauseda
numberofunplannednuclearplantoutagesduringApril.Theincreasein
hydroelectricgenerationthisyearcontributestoadeclineintheshareoftotal
generationfueledbycoalandflatnaturalgasgenerationduring2011.EIAexpectsa
2.0percentincreaseintotalelectricpowersectorgenerationin2012,fueledprimarily
byincreasesincoalandnaturalgasfiredgeneration.

U.S.ElectricityRetailPrices.EIAexpectstheaverageU.S.residentialelectricityprice
torisefrom11.58centsperkilowatthourin2010to11.83centsperkilowatthourthis
year,anincreaseof2.2percent(U.S.ResidentialElectricityPricesChart).Thecostof
coalandnaturalgastotheelectricpowersectorthisyearisexpectedtostayflat,
whichshouldflattenretailelectricitypricesnextyearbecauseofregulatorylagsinthe
passthroughofgenerationcoststoretailprices.

Coal

U.S.CoalConsumption.Coalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectorgrewby4.5
percentin2010,primarilytheresultofhigherelectricitydemandduringthesummer.
EIAprojectsthatcoalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectorwilldecreaseby1.5
percentin2011,aselectricitydemandremainsflatandgenerationfromotherenergy
sourcesincreases.Forecastcoalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectorgrowsby2.9
percentin2012(U.S.CoalConsumptionGrowthChart).

U.S.CoalSupply.Coalproductionin2010grewbyonly1.0percentdespitethe5
percentincreaseintotalU.S.coalconsumption.Adrawdowninstocks,particularly
intheelectricpowersector,metthedemandincrease(U.S.ElectricPowerSectorCoal
StocksChart).EIAprojectsthatcoalproductionwillremainflatin2011,followedbya
2.5percentincreasein2012(U.S.AnnualCoalProductionChart).

U.S.CoalTrade.Strongglobaldemandforcoal,particularlymetallurgicalcoalused
toproducesteel,resultedinsharpincreasesinU.S.coalexportsin2010.U.S.coal
exportsroseabout50%duringthefirstquarterof2011comparedto2010,reaching
26.6millionshorttons(mmst),thehighestlevelsince1992.Whilecokingcoalremains
theprimaryexport,exportsofsteamcoalledrecentgrowth,rising160%overthe
sameperiod. EIAexpectsU.S.coalexportstoremainelevatedin2011,particularlyin
thefirsthalfoftheyear,reachinganannuallevelof98mmst.ForecastU.S.coal
exportsfallbacktomoretypicalhistoricallevels(approximately80mmst)in2012as
supplyfromothermajorcoalexportingcountriesrecovers.
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 2011
8


EIAalsoexpectsthestrongglobaldemandforcoaltocontinuetosuppresscoal
imports,withimportsatlevelsbelow19mmstinboth2011and2012.U.S.coal
importsaveragedabout31mmstannuallyfrom2004through2009.

U.S.CoalPrices.Electricpowersectordeliveredcoalpriceshavebeenrising
relativelysteadilyoverthelast10years,reflectinglongertermcoalcontractsinitiated
duringaperiodofhighenergyprices,risingtransportationcosts,andincreased
consumption.However,EIAexpectsthatthepowersectorcoalpricewillremain
stablein2011and2012ascoalcompeteswithnaturalgasforgenerationmarketshare.
Theprojectedpowersectordeliveredcoalprice,whichaveraged$2.26perMMBtuin
2010,averages$2.28perMMBtuand$2.26perMMBtuin2011and2012,respectively.

U.S.CarbonDioxideEmissions

EIAestimatesthatfossilfuelCO2emissionsincreasedby3.8percentin2010(U.S.
CarbonDioxideEmissionsGrowthChart).ForecastfossilfuelCO2emissionsremain
flatin2011asemissionincreasesfromhigherpetroleumandnaturalgasconsumption
areoffsetbydeclinesincoalconsumption.Expectedincreasesinconsumptionofall
fossilfuelsin2012contributetoa1.6percentincreaseinfossilfuelCO2emissions.

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 2011


9

U.S. Energy Information Administration


Independent Statistics & Analysis

Short-Term Energy Outlook


Chart Gallery for June 2011

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price


dollars per barrel
220

Historical spot price


STEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price
95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan 2010

Jul 2010

Jan 2011

Jul 2011

Jan 2012

Jul 2012

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending June 2, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices


dollars per gallon

dollars per gallon

4.50

3.50
Forecast

4.00

3.00
Retail Regular Gasoline

3.50

2.50
Crude Oil

3.00

2.00

2.50

1.50

2.00

1.00

1.50

0.50

1.00
Jan 2007

0.00
Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

Jan 2012

U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices


dollars per gallon

dollars per gallon

4.80

3.50
Forecast

Retail Diesel Fuel


4.30

3.00

3.80

2.50
Crude Oil

3.30

2.00

2.80

1.50

2.30

1.00

1.80

0.50

1.30
Jan 2007

0.00
Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

Henry Hub Natural Gas Price


dollars per million btu
12
Historical spot price
STEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price
95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval

10

0
Jan 2010

Jul 2010

Jan 2011

Jul 2011

Jan 2012

Jul 2012

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for 5 trading days ending June 2, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

Natural Gas Prices


dollars per thousand cubic feet
25
Forecast
Residential price
Henry Hub spot price
Composite wellhead price

20

15

10

0
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

World Liquid Fuels Consumption


million barrels per day
95

million barrels per day


9.0
Forecast
8.0

Total consumption

90

7.0
6.0

85

5.0

80

4.0

Annual growth
75

3.0
2.0

70

1.0

65

0.0
-1.0

60

-2.0
55

-3.0
2004

2005

2006

2007

China

2008

United States

2009

2010

2011

2012

Other Countries

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
1.5

Forecast

1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
2010
OECD*

2011
Non-OECD Asia

2012

FSU** and Eastern Europe

Other

* Countries belonging to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development


** Former Soviet Union

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
2.0

Forecast

1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
2010

2011
OPEC countries
North America
North Sea

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

2012
Russia and Caspian Sea
Latin America
Other Non-OPEC

Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
0.7
0.6

2012

0.5

2011

0.4

2010

0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
United Kingdom

Mexico

Norway

Malaysia

Australia

Other North Sea

Syria

Gabon

Egypt

Sudan

India

Oman

Russia

Vietnam

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Brazil

Colombia

China

United States

Canada

-0.4

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production


(change from previous year)
millions of barrels per day
4

dollars per barrel


100

World oil consumption (left axis)


Non-OPEC production (left axis)
WTI crude oil price (right axis)

Forecast
80
60

2
40
1

20

0
-20

-1

-40
-2
-60
-3

-80

-4
2008-Q1

-100
2009-Q1

2010-Q1

2011-Q1

2012-Q1

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity


million barrels per day
7
Forecast
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Note: Shaded area represents 2000-2010 average (2.7 million barrels per day)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

2010

2012

OECD Commercial Oil Stocks


days of supply
70
Forecast
65
60
55
50
45
400
Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum obeserved inventories from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production


Change from prior year
(million barrels per day)

Total production
million barrels per day

Forecast

9.0
Total production

8.0

1.4
1.2

7.0

1.0

6.0

0.8

5.0

0.6
Annual change

4.0

0.4

3.0

0.2

2.0

0.0

1.0

-0.2

0.0

-0.4
2001

2002

2003

Fuel ethanol

2004

2005

Crude oil

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Liquified petroleum gas and pentanes plus

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks


million barrels
400
Forecast
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
2000
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth


(change from previous year)
thousand barrels per day
Forecast

600
2.0%

0.8%

2010

2011

0.7%

400
200
0
-200
-400
-600

Total

Motor gasoline

2012

Jet fuel

Distillate fuel

Other

Note: Percent change labels refer to total petroleum products growth

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories


million barrels
260
Total motor gasoline inventory

Forecast

240
220
200
180

Total distillate fuel inventory

160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

U.S. Total Natural Gas Consumption


billion cubic feet per day
70

change from prior year


20%
Forecast
18%

68
66

16%
Consumption

64

14%

62

12%

60

10%

58
54

3.9%

8%

6.5%

Annual growth

56

5.7%

6%

3.5%

4%

52
50

1.4%

0.5%

0.2%

0.3%

2%
0%

48
46

-2%

-1.6%

-1.4% -1.5%
-3.2%

44

-4%

-4.4%

42
2000

2001

-6%
2002

2003

2004

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage


billion cubic feet
Forecast

Storage level

4,000

120%

3,000

100%

2,000

80%

1,000

60%
40%

0
Deviation from 2005 - 2009 average
-1,000

20%

-2,000

0%

-3,000
Jan 2007

-20%
Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

U.S. Coal Consumption Growth


(change from previous year)
50%
Forecast
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
2010
Total consumption

2011
Electric power sector

2012

Retail and general industry

Coke plants

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

U.S. Annual Coal Production


million short tons
1,400
Forecast
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Total U.S.

Western region

Appalachian region

Interior region

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

2010

2011

2012

U.S. Electric Power Coal Stocks


million short tons
220
Forecast
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan
2003

Jan
2004

Jan
2005

Jan
2006

Jan
2007

Jan
2008

Jan
2009

Jan
2010

Jan
2011

Jan
2012

Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

U.S. Total Electricity Consumption


billion kilowatthours per day

change from prior year


24%
Forecast
22%

12

20%

Consumption

11

18%
16%

10

14%
12%

10%
Annual growth

8%

6%

4.3%
2.8%

2.8%

2.1%

1.2%

0.8%

2.0%

1.9%
0.2%

4%
2%

0.0%

0%
6

-0.7%

-2%

-0.9%

-4%

-3.4%
5

-6%
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

U.S. Residential Electricity Price


cents per kilowatthour

change from prior year

14
13

Forecast

Monthly average electricity price

36%

12
11

30%

10
9

24%

8
7

18%

6
Annual growth

10.3%

12%

4
4.2%

3
2

5.7%

5.4%
3.2%

2.6%

2.4%

0.9%

6%
2.2%

0.6%

2.2%
0.1%
0%

1
0

-1.6%
-6%

-1
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

U.S. Electric Power Sector Generation Growth


(change from previous year)
gigawatt-hours per day
400
Forecast
300
4.2%

-0.3%

2.0%

200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
2010
Coal

2011
Natural Gas

Nuclear

2012

Hydropower

Other Renewables

Note: Percent change labels refer to growth in total generation. Not all generation sources are shown.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures Share


of Gross Domestic Product
Forecast

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth


(change from previous year)
9%
Forecast
6%
3%
0%
-3%
-6%
-9%
2010
All Fossil Fuels
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

2011
Coal

Petroleum

2012
Natural Gas

2012

U.S. Summer Cooling Degree-Days


(population-weighted)
450
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Normal

400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

U.S. Winter Heating Degree-Days


(population-weighted)
1200

2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Normal

1000

800

600

400

200

0
OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions


AK

Pacific

WEST

MIDWEST

NORTHEAST

WA
ND

MT

MN

OR
W

ID
NV

Mountain
CO

CA

West
North
Central

SD

Pacific

NE

VT
W

IA

MO

KS

Middle
Atlantic
PA

IN

IL

UT
WV
NM

Pacific
HI

VA

KY
OK

AZ
TX

EastTN

AR
South
West
Central
South
AL
LA MS
Central

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

NH

MA
RI
CT
NJ

DE
MD

NC

South
Atlantic
SC
GA

LEGEND
REGION
Division
State

FL

SOUTH

ME

New

NY England

East
MI
North
Central OH

Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- June 2011
2010

2011

Year-over-year Change
(percent)
Q2
Q3
Season

Q2

Q3

Season

Q2

Q3

Season

WTI Crude Oil (Spot) a

1.85

1.81

1.83

2.48

2.48

2.48

33.9

36.7

35.3

Imported Crude Oil Priceb

1.77

1.75

1.76

2.53

2.52

2.53

42.8

44.6

43.7

Nominal Prices (dollars per gallon)

U.S. Refiner Average Crude Oil Cost

1.79

1.76

1.78

2.53

2.52

2.53

41.0

43.1

42.0

Wholesale Gasoline Pricec

2.18

2.10

2.14

3.13

3.01

3.07

43.9

43.4

43.6

Wholesale Diesel Fuel Pricec

2.20

2.15

2.17

3.15

3.10

3.13

43.1

44.4

43.8

Regular Gasoline Retail Priced

2.81

2.72

2.76

3.82

3.68

3.75

36.3

35.3

35.8

3.03

2.94

2.98

4.01

3.92

3.97

32.6

33.4

33.0

Diesel Fuel Retail Price

Gasoline Consumption/Supply (million barrels per day)


Total Consumption

9.201

9.288

9.245

9.171

9.323

9.248

-0.3

0.4

0.0

Total Refinery and Blender Outpute

7.604

7.699

7.652

7.473

7.691

7.583

-1.7

-0.1

-0.9

2.1

0.1

1.1

26.3

-12.7

5.0

Fuel Ethanol Blending

0.858

0.879

0.868

0.876

0.879

0.877

Total Stock Withdrawal f

0.101

-0.049

0.026

0.016

0.090

0.053

Net Imports f

0.639

0.759

0.700

0.807

0.663

0.735

Refinery Utilization (percent)

89.0

88.8

88.9

85.1

87.8

86.5

Gasoline Stocks, Including Blending Components (million barrels)


Beginning

224.0

214.8

224.0

214.9

213.4

214.9

Ending

214.8

219.3

219.3

213.4

205.2

205.2

Economic Indicators (annualized billion 2000 dollars)


Real GDP

13,195

13,279

13,237

13,551

13,654

13,602

2.7

2.8

2.8

Real Income

10,252

10,277

10,264

10,434

10,475

10,454

1.8

1.9

1.8

Spot Price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.


Cost of imported crude oil to U.S. refiners.
c
Price product sold by refiners to resellers.
d
Average pump price including taxes.
e
Refinery and blender net production plus finished motor gasoline adjustment.
f
Total stock withdrawal and net imports includes both finished gasoline and gasoline blend components.
GDP = gross domestic product.
b

Notes: Minor discrepancies with other Energy Information Administration (EIA) published historical data are due to rounding. Historical data
are printed in bold. Forecasts are in italic. The forecasts were generated by simulation of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Sources: Historical data: latest data available from: EIA,Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109; Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA0035; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP and income); Reuters News Service (WTI crude oil spotprice).
Macroeconomic projections are based on IHS Global Insight Macroeconomic Forecast Model.

Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Energy Supply
Crude Oil Production (a)
(million barrels per day) ..............................

5.47

5.48

5.49

5.61

5.57

5.54

5.41

5.54

5.55

5.48

5.34

5.39

5.51

5.51

5.44

Dry Natural Gas Production


(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................

57.93

58.56

59.28

60.66

60.95

62.62

61.85

61.73

61.75

61.56

61.62

62.19

59.12

61.79

61.78

Coal Production
(million short tons) .......................................

265

265

278

277

271

263

275

275

284

270

281

278

1,085

1,085

1,112

Liquid Fuels
(million barrels per day) ..............................

18.82

19.01

19.49

19.26

19.09

19.21

19.52

19.38

19.33

19.32

19.58

19.50

19.15

19.30

19.43

Natural Gas
(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................

83.41

54.42

57.93

68.95

83.78

55.68

57.84

71.19

83.39

55.77

58.55

71.29

66.12

67.06

67.24

Coal (b)
(million short tons) .......................................

265

247

286

250

254

245

275

258

275

245

283

260

1,048

1,032

1,064

Electricity
(billion kilowatt hours per day) ....................

10.61

10.02

12.01

9.92

10.60

10.13

11.81

10.04

10.86

10.31

12.03

10.23

10.64

10.65

10.86

Renewables (c)
(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................

1.77

1.95

1.80

1.84

2.06

2.24

2.03

1.90

2.02

2.21

2.04

2.03

7.36

8.23

8.31

Total Energy Consumption (d)


(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................

25.75

22.96

24.65

25.04

26.02

23.52

24.60

25.12

26.62

23.68

24.95

25.44

98.41

99.27

100.69

Crude Oil (e)


(dollars per barrel) .......................................

75.89

75.34

74.05

81.70

94.01

106.21

105.98

107.50

108.50

107.50

108.00

108.50

76.72

103.54

108.12

Natural Gas Wellhead


(dollars per thousand cubic feet) .................

4.79

4.07

4.11

3.67

3.99

3.94

3.98

4.28

4.35

4.06

4.23

4.57

4.15

4.05

4.30

Coal
(dollars per million Btu) ...............................

2.26

2.26

2.28

2.25

2.35

2.29

2.26

2.21

2.29

2.27

2.25

2.22

2.26

2.28

2.26

Real Gross Domestic Product


(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .........
Percent change from prior year ...................

13,139
2.4

13,195
3.0

13,279
3.2

13,381
2.8

13,439
2.3

13,551
2.7

13,654
2.8

13,771
2.9

13,855
3.1

13,934
2.8

14,031
2.8

14,139
2.7

13,248
2.9

13,603
2.7

13,990
2.8

GDP Implicit Price Deflator


(Index, 2005=100) ........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................

110.0
0.5

110.5
0.8

111.1
1.2

111.2
1.3

111.7
1.6

112.6
1.9

113.1
1.8

113.3
1.9

113.7
1.8

113.9
1.2

114.5
1.2

115.1
1.6

110.7
1.0

112.7
1.8

114.3
1.5

Real Disposable Personal Income


(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .........
Percent change from prior year ...................

10,113
0.7

10,252
0.6

10,277
2.0

10,324
2.4

10,399
2.8

10,434
1.8

10,475
1.9

10,532
2.0

10,487
0.8

10,573
1.3

10,618
1.4

10,668
1.3

10,241
1.4

10,460
2.1

10,587
1.2

85.0
2.2

86.9
7.5

88.1
7.2

89.0
6.6

91.1
7.1

92.3
6.2

94.2
6.8

95.6
7.4

96.5
6.0

97.2
5.2

98.1
4.2

98.8
3.4

87.3
5.8

93.3
6.9

97.6
4.7

2,311
12

422
445

68
937

1,659
73

2,285
33

515
377

100
771

1,632
77

2,249
35

537
344

100
778

1,618
83

4,460
1,467

4,532
1,258

4,504
1,240

Energy Consumption

Energy Prices

Macroeconomic

Manufacturing Production Index


(Index, 2007=100) ........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................
Weather
U.S. Heating Degree-Days ..........................
U.S. Cooling Degree-Days ..........................

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIAs Monthly Energy Review (MER).
Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).
(e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130;
Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)


West Texas Intermediate Spot Average ...........................
Imported Average .............................................................
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost ....................................
Liquid Fuels (cents per gallon)
Refiner Prices for Resale
Gasoline ........................................................................
Diesel Fuel ....................................................................
Heating Oil ....................................................................
Refiner Prices to End Users
Jet Fuel .........................................................................
No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) ............................................
Propane to Petrochemical Sector .................................
Retail Prices Including Taxes
Gasoline Regular Grade (b) ..........................................
Gasoline All Grades (b) .................................................
On-highway Diesel Fuel ................................................
Heating Oil ....................................................................
Propane .........................................................................

78.64
75.28
75.89

77.79
74.33
75.34

76.05
73.32
74.05

85.10
81.03
81.70

93.50
94.27
94.01

104.14
106.18
106.21

104.00
105.99
105.98

106.00
107.50
107.50

107.00
108.50
108.50

106.00
107.50
107.50

107.00
108.00
108.00

108.00
108.50
108.50

79.40
75.87
76.72

101.91
103.64
103.54

107.00
108.12
108.12

211
209
205

218
220
212

210
215
204

227
240
234

267
286
275

313
315
306

301
310
303

293
311
309

299
308
309

309
308
306

304
311
306

295
314
311

217
221
215

294
306
295

302
310
309

210
172

219
170

214
166

238
182

287
218

316
241

309
242

311
246

309
247

307
244

310
246

313
251

220
173

306
236

310
247

This price series discontinued beginning with the June 2011 edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook. This row will no longer appear
beginning with the July 2011 edition.
271
277
285
292

281
286
303
293

272
277
294
282

288
294
315
310

329
335
363
359

382
388
401
391

368
373
392
390

357
363
393
401

362
367
393
410

374
379
394
404

372
377
396
400

360
365
399
408

278
283
299
298

360
365
387
378

367
372
395
408

This price series discontinued beginning with the June 2011 edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook. This row will no longer appear
beginning with the July 2011 edition.

Natural Gas
Average Wellhead (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ......
Henry Hub Spot (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ..........
Henry Hub Spot (dollars per Million Btu) .........................
End-Use Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)

4.79
5.30
5.15

4.07
4.45
4.32

4.11
4.41
4.28

3.67
3.91
3.80

3.99
4.31
4.18

3.94
4.38
4.25

3.98
4.24
4.12

4.28
4.59
4.45

4.35
4.80
4.66

4.06
4.40
4.27

4.23
4.60
4.46

4.57
5.08
4.93

4.15
4.52
4.39

4.05
4.38
4.25

4.30
4.72
4.58

Industrial Sector ............................................................


Commercial Sector .......................................................
Residential Sector .........................................................
Electricity
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)

6.51
9.30
10.59

4.98
9.25
12.54

5.07
9.63
15.47

4.89
8.66
10.56

5.40
8.66
9.98

5.23
9.04
12.00

5.25
9.63
15.98

5.87
9.83
12.11

6.25
9.71
11.08

5.44
9.73
12.66

5.51
10.19
16.64

6.22
10.27
12.66

5.40
9.14
11.18

5.44
9.18
11.35

5.87
9.94
12.19

Coal ...............................................................................
Natural Gas ..................................................................
Residual Fuel Oil (c) ......................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ...........................................................
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)

2.26
6.06
12.10
15.84

2.26
4.89
12.36
16.48

2.28
4.88
12.36
16.18

2.25
4.69
14.19
17.94

2.35
5.05
15.58
20.82

2.29
4.88
17.55
23.34

2.26
5.02
17.80
23.39

2.21
5.28
18.03
23.74

2.29
5.51
18.30
23.66

2.27
5.09
18.32
23.47

2.25
5.29
18.21
23.67

2.22
5.63
18.13
23.88

2.26
5.08
12.63
16.60

2.28
5.05
17.40
22.74

2.26
5.36
18.25
23.67

Industrial Sector ............................................................


Commercial Sector .......................................................
Residential Sector .........................................................

6.53
9.87
10.88

6.75
10.30
11.90

7.17
10.71
12.02

6.67
10.06
11.50

6.67
10.02
11.25

6.76
10.42
12.06

7.15
10.90
12.32

6.68
10.22
11.65

6.56
10.02
11.11

6.79
10.46
12.11

7.20
10.96
12.37

6.73
10.29
11.75

6.79
10.26
11.58

6.82
10.41
11.83

6.83
10.46
11.84

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Average for all sulfur contents.
(b) Average self-service cash price.
(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.
Natural gas Henry Hub and WTI crude oil spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3a. International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010

2011

2012

Year
2011

2012

21.39
9.65
3.59
2.90
3.73
1.52
65.46
35.15
29.77
5.39
13.17
4.27
12.87
86.84

21.43
9.72
3.76
2.85
3.62
1.48
66.26
35.40
29.40
6.00
13.38
4.41
13.07
87.68

21.36
9.64
3.97
2.83
3.43
1.49
67.91
36.49
30.06
6.44
13.46
4.55
13.41
89.27

52.67

51.69

52.28

52.78

45.96
19.58
0.27
2.32
14.28
4.03
5.47
44.30
4.71
0.82
10.44
9.95
18.38
90.26

46.64
19.50
0.27
2.32
14.40
4.40
5.76
43.70
4.67
0.82
10.34
10.18
17.69
90.34

46.03
19.15
0.27
2.24
14.45
4.42
5.50
40.70
4.40
0.80
9.17
9.72
16.60
86.73

46.11
19.30
0.27
2.26
14.32
4.44
5.52
42.32
4.52
0.79
9.87
10.02
17.11
88.43

46.15
19.43
0.27
2.29
14.17
4.34
5.65
43.87
4.61
0.80
10.42
10.24
17.80
90.02

-0.39
0.26
0.44
0.31

-0.13
0.50
0.84
1.22

0.54
0.00
0.01
0.55

-0.05
0.01
-0.08
-0.12

0.09
0.23
0.42
0.75

0.02
0.27
0.45
0.75

1,062
2,504

1,073
2,470

1,024
2,420

1,067
2,647

1,033
2,529

1,024
2,420

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Supply (million barrels per day) (a)


OECD ................................................
U.S. (50 States) .............................
Canada ..........................................
Mexico ............................................
North Sea (b) .................................
Other OECD ...................................
Non-OECD ........................................
OPEC .............................................
Crude Oil Portion ........................
Other Liquids ...............................
Former Soviet Union ......................
China ..............................................
Other Non-OECD ...........................
Total World Supply ............................

21.44
9.46
3.45
2.95
4.08
1.51
64.55
34.51
29.40
5.11
13.11
4.16
12.78
86.00

21.30
9.56
3.58
2.87
3.74
1.54
65.29
35.02
29.65
5.37
13.15
4.23
12.88
86.59

20.97
9.67
3.55
2.87
3.36
1.53
66.14
35.71
30.15
5.57
13.18
4.31
12.94
87.11

21.83
9.91
3.77
2.89
3.76
1.49
65.82
35.35
29.85
5.49
13.22
4.37
12.89
87.65

21.54
9.77
3.75
2.91
3.68
1.44
66.03
35.48
29.77
5.70
13.27
4.31
12.98
87.57

21.64
9.73
3.75
2.87
3.79
1.50
66.32
35.16
29.11
6.05
13.51
4.45
13.20
87.96

21.15
9.63
3.71
2.81
3.49
1.50
66.22
35.41
29.34
6.07
13.36
4.41
13.05
87.37

21.38
9.75
3.82
2.81
3.51
1.47
66.45
35.55
29.37
6.18
13.39
4.45
13.06
87.82

21.58
9.69
3.93
2.86
3.61
1.49
67.53
36.08
29.70
6.38
13.65
4.51
13.29
89.11

21.45
9.66
3.95
2.84
3.51
1.49
67.69
36.20
29.78
6.42
13.53
4.56
13.40
89.13

21.11
9.57
3.99
2.82
3.23
1.50
67.93
36.56
30.11
6.45
13.37
4.57
13.43
89.04

21.30
9.62
4.02
2.81
3.38
1.47
68.48
37.12
30.63
6.49
13.28
4.58
13.51
89.79

Non-OPEC Supply ............................

51.49

51.56

51.40

52.31

52.10

52.81

51.96

52.28

53.02

52.93

52.48

Consumption (million barrels per day) (c)


OECD ................................................
45.79
U.S. (50 States) .............................
18.82
U.S. Territories ...............................
0.27
Canada ..........................................
2.19
Europe ............................................ 14.18
Japan .............................................
4.79
Other OECD ...................................
5.55
Non-OECD ........................................
39.63
Former Soviet Union ......................
4.32
Europe ............................................
0.79
China ..............................................
8.88
Other Asia ......................................
9.81
Other Non-OECD ...........................
15.83
Total World Consumption .................
85.41

45.09
19.01
0.27
2.21
14.12
4.04
5.44
41.14
4.34
0.77
9.31
9.93
16.79
86.23

46.55
19.49
0.27
2.28
14.79
4.33
5.38
40.92
4.49
0.83
8.89
9.47
17.25
87.47

46.66
19.26
0.27
2.26
14.69
4.54
5.64
41.08
4.45
0.83
9.60
9.69
16.52
87.75

46.29
19.09
0.27
2.29
14.17
4.85
5.62
41.52
4.42
0.78
9.65
10.18
16.49
87.81

45.07
19.21
0.27
2.18
14.01
3.95
5.45
42.78
4.47
0.76
10.11
10.20
17.24
87.85

46.24
19.52
0.27
2.29
14.48
4.33
5.36
42.94
4.62
0.81
10.02
9.74
17.74
89.18

46.81
19.38
0.27
2.28
14.59
4.65
5.64
42.05
4.58
0.81
9.71
9.97
16.97
88.86

46.81
19.33
0.27
2.30
14.17
4.93
5.80
43.21
4.50
0.79
10.32
10.40
17.19
90.02

45.19
19.32
0.27
2.21
13.82
4.00
5.57
44.26
4.55
0.77
10.58
10.42
17.93
89.44

Inventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)


U.S. (50 States) ................................
-0.03
-0.65
Other OECD ......................................
-0.16
-0.38
Other Stock Draws and Balance ......
-0.39
0.68
Total Stock Draw ............................
-0.58
-0.35

-0.20
0.36
0.19
0.36

0.69
0.19
-0.78
0.09

0.27
-0.10
0.07
0.24

-0.36
0.09
0.15
-0.11

-0.09
0.73
1.17
1.81

0.56
0.19
0.29
1.03

0.07
0.33
0.51
0.91

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


U.S. Commercial Inventory ..............
1,053
OECD Commercial Inventory ...........
2,649

1,130
2,727

1,067
2,647

1,043
2,632

1,075
2,656

1,084
2,597

1,033
2,529

1,026
2,492

1,112
2,742

2010

- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
(b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.
(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the International Petroleum Monthly ; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data
Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3b. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010

2011

2012

Year
2011

2012

16.14
3.59
2.90
9.65

16.33
3.76
2.85
9.72

16.44
3.97
2.83
9.64

5.27
0.76
3.04
1.01
0.46

4.78
0.78
2.74
0.80
0.46

5.00
0.77
2.87
0.91
0.46

5.21
0.77
2.99
0.98
0.46

4.06
1.98
1.00
0.26

4.21
2.03
1.09
0.25

4.60
2.13
1.32
0.28

4.46
2.14
1.20
0.28

4.26
2.07
1.10
0.26

13.53
1.20
1.81
10.14
0.21
0.39

13.37
1.15
1.82
10.03
0.21
0.38

13.28
1.13
1.83
9.94
0.22
0.38

13.17
1.04
1.61
10.12
0.20
0.39

13.38
1.14
1.70
10.14
0.21
0.39

13.46
1.18
1.81
10.08
0.21
0.38

1.57
0.88
0.38
0.25

1.55
0.88
0.38
0.25

1.54
0.88
0.37
0.24

1.54
0.88
0.37
0.25

1.58
0.87
0.40
0.26

1.55
0.87
0.38
0.25

1.55
0.88
0.37
0.25

9.07
0.55
4.45
0.98
1.02
0.64
0.42

9.22
0.55
4.51
1.01
1.03
0.65
0.45

9.26
0.55
4.56
1.00
1.03
0.63
0.48

9.30
0.56
4.57
1.00
1.03
0.63
0.50

9.33
0.53
4.58
1.01
1.03
0.65
0.52

8.85
0.55
4.27
0.95
1.03
0.67
0.36

9.00
0.54
4.41
0.99
1.01
0.65
0.39

9.28
0.55
4.55
1.00
1.03
0.64
0.49

2.56
0.66
0.30
0.21
0.48

2.56
0.67
0.29
0.21
0.48

2.59
0.68
0.29
0.21
0.49

2.58
0.68
0.29
0.21
0.49

2.58
0.68
0.29
0.20
0.49

2.59
0.68
0.29
0.20
0.49

2.58
0.66
0.32
0.23
0.51

2.56
0.67
0.30
0.21
0.49

2.59
0.68
0.29
0.21
0.49

52.81

51.96

52.28

53.02

52.93

52.48

52.67

51.69

52.28

52.78

6.05
58.86

6.07
58.03

6.18
58.45

6.38
59.41

6.42
59.35

6.45
58.94

6.49
59.16

5.39
57.08

6.00
58.29

6.44
59.21

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

North America ...................................


Canada ................................................
Mexico ..................................................
United States .......................................

15.86
3.45
2.95
9.46

16.02
3.58
2.87
9.56

16.09
3.55
2.87
9.67

16.58
3.77
2.89
9.91

16.42
3.75
2.91
9.77

16.35
3.75
2.87
9.73

16.15
3.71
2.81
9.63

16.39
3.82
2.81
9.75

16.48
3.93
2.86
9.69

16.45
3.95
2.84
9.66

16.37
3.99
2.82
9.57

16.45
4.02
2.81
9.62

Central and South America ............


Argentina .............................................
Brazil ....................................................
Colombia ..............................................
Other Central and S. America .............

4.72
0.80
2.68
0.77
0.47

4.80
0.79
2.75
0.79
0.46

4.80
0.79
2.75
0.80
0.46

4.81
0.73
2.80
0.83
0.45

4.90
0.77
2.80
0.88
0.46

5.11
0.78
2.96
0.91
0.46

4.99
0.76
2.87
0.91
0.45

5.00
0.76
2.86
0.93
0.45

5.08
0.77
2.89
0.96
0.47

5.22
0.77
3.02
0.97
0.46

5.25
0.77
3.02
0.99
0.47

Europe ...............................................
Norway .................................................
United Kingdom (offshore) ..................
Other North Sea ..................................

4.92
2.32
1.46
0.30

4.60
2.11
1.35
0.29

4.23
1.93
1.18
0.25

4.64
2.18
1.30
0.28

4.55
2.10
1.29
0.28

4.63
2.27
1.24
0.29

4.32
2.14
1.08
0.27

4.34
2.06
1.18
0.27

4.44
2.14
1.20
0.27

4.34
2.12
1.12
0.26

FSU and Eastern Europe .................


Azerbaijan ............................................
Kazakhstan ..........................................
Russia ..................................................
Turkmenistan .......................................
Other FSU/Eastern Europe .................

13.11
1.00
1.61
10.10
0.20
0.41

13.15
1.05
1.57
10.14
0.20
0.39

13.18
1.05
1.61
10.14
0.20
0.38

13.22
1.06
1.66
10.12
0.21
0.39

13.27
1.00
1.67
10.20
0.21
0.39

13.51
1.16
1.72
10.23
0.21
0.40

13.36
1.20
1.70
10.06
0.21
0.39

13.39
1.19
1.72
10.09
0.21
0.39

13.65
1.23
1.79
10.23
0.21
0.39

Middle East ........................................


Oman ...................................................
Syria .....................................................
Yemen .................................................

1.59
0.86
0.40
0.27

1.58
0.86
0.40
0.26

1.57
0.87
0.40
0.25

1.58
0.88
0.40
0.25

1.58
0.88
0.39
0.26

1.57
0.87
0.39
0.26

1.53
0.85
0.38
0.25

1.53
0.86
0.38
0.25

Asia and Oceania ............................


Australia ...............................................
China ...................................................
India .....................................................
Indonesia .............................................
Malaysia ...............................................
Vietnam ................................................

8.68
0.56
4.16
0.91
1.02
0.68
0.35

8.82
0.58
4.23
0.92
1.04
0.67
0.36

8.95
0.55
4.31
0.98
1.04
0.65
0.39

8.94
0.53
4.37
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.36

8.82
0.48
4.31
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.36

9.08
0.56
4.45
1.00
1.00
0.65
0.39

9.04
0.58
4.41
0.98
1.02
0.66
0.40

Africa ..................................................
Egypt ....................................................
Equatorial Guinea ................................
Gabon ..................................................
Sudan ..................................................

2.61
0.66
0.33
0.23
0.51

2.60
0.66
0.33
0.23
0.51

2.57
0.66
0.32
0.23
0.51

2.55
0.66
0.31
0.22
0.51

2.57
0.67
0.31
0.22
0.50

2.56
0.68
0.31
0.20
0.49

Total non-OPEC liquids ....................

51.49

51.56

51.40

52.31

52.10

OPEC non-crude liquids .................


Non-OPEC + OPEC non-crude .......

5.11
56.60

5.37
56.93

5.57
56.96

5.49
57.80

5.70
57.80

2010

- = no data available
FSU = Former Soviet Union
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the International Petroleum Monthly ; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data
Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010

2011

2012

Year
2011

2012

1.30
1.85
0.49
3.75
2.37
2.28
1.65
2.05
0.85
8.78
2.30
2.11
29.77

29.40

30.06

6.49

5.39

6.00

6.44

36.56

37.12

35.15

35.40

36.49

33.38

33.56

33.74

1.30
1.85
0.49
3.75
2.37
2.60
1.65
2.05
0.85
12.19
2.60
2.11
33.76

33.03

33.49

3.60

3.45

3.11

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.32
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.41
0.30
0.00
3.99

3.63

3.44

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Crude Oil
Algeria ...........................................
Angola ...........................................
Ecudaor .........................................
Iran ................................................
Iraq ................................................
Kuwait ............................................
Libya ..............................................
Nigeria ...........................................
Qatar .............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC Total ................................

1.35
1.97
0.47
3.80
2.42
2.30
1.65
2.03
0.84
8.20
2.30
2.07
29.40

1.30
1.94
0.48
3.80
2.37
2.23
1.65
1.95
0.85
8.70
2.30
2.09
29.65

1.27
1.79
0.49
3.70
2.32
2.30
1.65
2.08
0.85
9.30
2.30
2.10
30.15

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.40
2.30
1.65
2.12
0.85
8.90
2.30
2.17
29.85

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.33
1.09
2.13
0.85
9.03
2.43
2.20
29.77

29.11

29.34

29.37

29.70

29.78

30.11

30.63

Other Liquids ..................................

5.11

5.37

5.57

5.49

5.70

6.05

6.07

6.18

6.38

6.42

6.45

Total OPEC Supply ........................

34.51

35.02

35.71

35.35

35.48

35.16

35.41

35.55

36.08

36.20

Crude Oil Production Capacity


Algeria ...........................................
Angola ...........................................
Ecudaor .........................................
Iran ................................................
Iraq ................................................
Kuwait ............................................
Libya ..............................................
Nigeria ...........................................
Qatar .............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC Total ................................

1.35
1.97
0.47
3.80
2.42
2.60
1.65
2.03
0.85
12.00
2.60
2.07
33.69

1.30
1.94
0.48
3.80
2.37
2.60
1.65
1.95
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.09
33.85

1.27
1.79
0.49
3.70
2.32
2.60
1.65
2.08
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.10
33.70

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.40
2.60
1.65
2.12
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.17
33.81

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.62
1.09
2.13
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
33.50

32.71

32.94

32.97

33.30

Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity


Algeria ...........................................
0.00
Angola ...........................................
0.00
Ecudaor .........................................
0.00
Iran ................................................
0.00
Iraq ................................................
0.00
Kuwait ............................................
0.30
Libya ..............................................
0.00
Nigeria ...........................................
0.00
Qatar .............................................
0.01
Saudi Arabia .................................
3.80
United Arab Emirates ....................
0.30
Venezuela .....................................
0.00
OPEC Total ................................
4.29

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.55
0.30
0.00
4.19

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.95
0.30
0.00
3.55

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.35
0.30
0.00
3.95

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.22
0.23
0.00
3.73

3.60

3.60

3.60

3.60

2010

- = no data available
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the International Petroleum Monthly ; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data
Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3d. World Liquid Fuels Consumption (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

North America ............................................................


Canada ........................................................................
Mexico .........................................................................
United States ...............................................................

23.16
2.19
2.14
18.82

23.40
2.21
2.17
19.01

23.90
2.28
2.12
19.49

23.67
2.26
2.14
19.26

23.50
2.29
2.11
19.09

23.62
2.18
2.22
19.21

23.99
2.29
2.17
19.52

23.85
2.28
2.18
19.38

23.87
2.30
2.23
19.33

23.80
2.21
2.27
19.32

24.12
2.32
2.21
19.58

24.04
2.32
2.22
19.50

Central and South America .....................................


Brazil ............................................................................

6.15
2.51

6.40
2.61

6.39
2.67

6.38
2.65

6.29
2.63

6.55
2.74

6.54
2.80

6.53
2.77

6.50
2.78

6.77
2.89

6.76
2.96

Europe .......................................................................

14.97

14.90

15.62

15.52

14.95

14.78

15.29

15.41

14.96

14.60

FSU and Eastern Europe ...........................................


Russia ..........................................................................

4.32
2.92

4.34
2.94

4.49
3.04

4.45
3.00

4.42
2.95

4.47
3.01

4.62
3.10

4.58
3.06

4.50
2.99

Middle East ................................................................

6.56

7.30

7.87

7.05

7.15

7.69

8.25

7.43

Asia and Oceania .....................................................


China ...........................................................................
Japan ...........................................................................
India .............................................................................

26.89
8.88
4.79
3.36

26.57
9.31
4.04
3.33

25.96
8.89
4.33
3.05

27.35
9.60
4.54
3.30

28.20
9.65
4.85
3.54

27.51
10.11
3.95
3.41

27.29
10.02
4.33
3.13

Africa ..........................................................................

3.37

3.34

3.25

3.34

3.29

3.24

Total OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ..................


Total non-OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ...........

45.79
39.63

45.09
41.14

46.55
40.92

46.66
41.08

46.29
41.52

Total World Liquid Fuels Consumption ...................

85.41

86.23

87.47

87.75

World Real Gross Domestic Product (a) .................


Index, 2007 Q1 = 100 ..................................................
Percent change from prior year ...................................

104.79
4.0

105.81
4.5

106.55
4.2

Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate (a)


Index, January 2007 = 100 ..........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................................

97.58
-6.4

99.82
-1.1

98.69
0.7

2010

2011

2012

23.54
2.24
2.14
19.15

23.74
2.26
2.17
19.30

23.96
2.29
2.23
19.43

6.75
2.93

6.33
2.61

6.48
2.73

6.69
2.89

15.11

15.22

15.25

15.11

14.97

4.55
3.04

4.71
3.14

4.67
3.10

4.40
2.98

4.52
3.03

4.61
3.07

7.55

8.07

8.58

7.83

7.20

7.63

8.01

27.81
9.71
4.65
3.37

29.24
10.32
4.93
3.66

28.32
10.58
4.00
3.52

27.70
10.44
4.03
3.24

28.47
10.34
4.40
3.49

26.69
9.17
4.42
3.26

27.70
9.87
4.44
3.36

28.43
10.42
4.34
3.48

3.20

3.26

3.38

3.33

3.29

3.36

3.32

3.25

3.34

45.07
42.78

46.24
42.94

46.81
42.05

46.81
43.21

45.19
44.26

45.96
44.30

46.64
43.70

46.03
40.70

46.11
42.32

46.15
43.87

87.81

87.85

89.18

88.86

90.02

89.44

90.26

90.34

86.73

88.43

90.02

107.37
3.8

108.21
3.3

109.10
3.1

110.24
3.5

111.42
3.8

112.43
3.9

113.43
4.0

114.43
3.8

115.53
3.7

106.14
4.1

109.75
3.4

113.96
3.8

96.17
0.8

97.30
-0.3

97.00
-2.8

96.43
-2.3

95.88
-0.3

95.65
-1.7

95.73
-1.3

95.79
-0.7

95.84
0.0

98.06
-1.6

96.65
-1.4

95.75
-0.9

- = no data available
FSU = Former Soviet Union
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
(a) Weighted geometric mean of real indices for various countries with weights equal to each country's share of world oil consumption in the base period. Exchange rate is measured in foreign currency per U.S.
dollar.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the International Petroleum Monthly ; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4a. U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st
Supply (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (a) .........................................
Alaska .................................................................
Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ...................................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ...............................
Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ........................................
SPR Net Withdrawals ............................................
Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals .................
Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ........................................
Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ............................
Other Supply
Refinery Processing Gain .......................................
Natural Gas Liquids Production .............................
Renewables and Oxygenate Production (e) ...........
Fuel Ethanol Production ......................................
Petroleum Products Adjustment (f) ........................
Product Net Imports (c) ..........................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .....................................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates ..........................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ..............................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil .................................................
Residual Fuel Oil .................................................
Other Oils (g) .......................................................
Product Inventory Net Withdrawals ........................
Total Supply ...............................................................

2nd

2011

2012

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

5.47
0.64
1.70
3.12
8.77
0.00
-0.34
0.08
13.98

5.48
0.58
1.68
3.22
9.71
0.00
-0.08
0.14
15.24

5.49
0.57
1.59
3.34
9.46
0.00
0.03
0.14
15.13

5.61
0.61
1.59
3.41
8.54
0.00
0.31
0.07
14.53

5.57
0.56
1.54
3.47
8.68
0.00
-0.34
0.31
14.23

5.54
0.53
1.52
3.49
9.09
0.00
-0.04
0.05
14.67

5.41
0.48
1.42
3.50
9.56
0.00
0.19
0.04
15.20

5.54
0.54
1.45
3.54
8.91
0.00
0.20
-0.01
14.63

5.55
0.54
1.46
3.54
9.19
0.00
-0.24
0.07
14.56

5.48
0.52
1.38
3.57
9.63
0.00
0.08
0.10
15.27

5.34
0.50
1.22
3.62
9.73
0.00
0.15
0.04
15.26

5.39
0.48
1.20
3.70
9.17
0.00
0.15
-0.01
14.69

5.51
0.60
1.64
3.27
9.12
0.00
-0.02
0.11
14.72

5.51
0.53
1.48
3.50
9.06
0.00
0.01
0.10
14.68

5.44
0.51
1.31
3.61
9.43
0.00
0.03
0.05
14.95

1.02
1.96
0.86
0.83
0.14
0.56
-0.03
0.07
0.53
-0.03
0.60
-0.12
0.02
-0.11
-0.02
-0.35
0.30
18.83

1.06
1.99
0.89
0.84
0.15
0.26
0.00
-0.01
0.58
-0.05
0.75
-0.11
0.00
-0.48
-0.04
-0.38
-0.57
19.01

1.09
1.99
0.91
0.87
0.19
0.41
0.00
-0.02
0.66
-0.07
0.88
-0.12
0.02
-0.55
-0.06
-0.34
-0.22
19.49

1.09
2.06
0.95
0.91
0.20
0.05
0.00
0.03
0.68
-0.05
0.65
-0.30
-0.01
-0.58
0.02
-0.39
0.38
19.26

1.03
2.04
0.95
0.91
0.18
0.05
0.01
0.04
0.62
-0.10
0.65
-0.30
-0.04
-0.44
0.02
-0.39
0.61
19.09

1.02
2.07
0.94
0.89
0.16
0.71
0.00
-0.01
0.71
-0.06
0.94
-0.13
0.02
-0.43
-0.01
-0.32
-0.32
19.25

1.04
2.10
0.94
0.91
0.14
0.40
-0.01
0.02
0.71
-0.08
0.68
-0.02
0.02
-0.48
-0.04
-0.41
-0.28
19.54

1.04
2.10
0.94
0.91
0.13
0.19
-0.01
0.00
0.65
-0.07
0.64
-0.19
0.01
-0.41
-0.02
-0.41
0.35
19.39

1.01
2.07
0.94
0.91
0.13
0.31
-0.01
0.01
0.63
-0.07
0.68
-0.19
0.02
-0.44
-0.01
-0.31
0.31
19.33

1.03
2.07
0.95
0.91
0.13
0.33
-0.01
-0.02
0.64
-0.07
0.72
-0.09
0.02
-0.43
-0.02
-0.42
-0.47
19.32

1.05
2.09
0.95
0.92
0.13
0.37
-0.01
-0.01
0.72
-0.07
0.73
-0.02
0.02
-0.51
-0.06
-0.43
-0.28
19.58

1.05
2.11
0.95
0.92
0.13
0.18
-0.01
-0.01
0.64
-0.07
0.69
-0.20
0.02
-0.38
-0.05
-0.47
0.40
19.50

1.06
2.00
0.90
0.86
0.17
0.32
-0.01
0.02
0.61
-0.05
0.72
-0.16
0.01
-0.43
-0.02
-0.36
-0.03
19.15

1.03
2.08
0.94
0.91
0.15
0.34
0.00
0.01
0.67
-0.08
0.72
-0.16
0.00
-0.44
-0.01
-0.38
0.09
19.32

1.04
2.08
0.95
0.91
0.13
0.30
-0.01
-0.01
0.66
-0.07
0.71
-0.12
0.02
-0.44
-0.04
-0.41
-0.01
19.43

0.08
2.38
0.05

0.07
1.80
0.03

0.10
1.99
0.01

0.08
2.25
-0.01

0.10
2.45
0.06

0.08
1.92
-0.02

0.10
2.01
0.00

0.10
2.24
0.01

0.08
2.39
0.01

0.08
1.91
0.00

0.09
2.02
0.00

0.10
2.26
0.02

0.08
2.10
0.02

0.09
2.15
0.01

0.09
2.14
0.01

8.65
1.39
3.79
0.56
1.92
18.82

9.20
1.44
3.70
0.53
2.24
19.01

9.29
1.47
3.75
0.54
2.34
19.49

8.99
1.40
3.94
0.57
2.04
19.26

8.60
1.36
3.95
0.60
1.96
19.09

9.17
1.45
3.83
0.53
2.24
19.21

9.32
1.48
3.79
0.52
2.30
19.52

9.01
1.43
4.00
0.55
2.03
19.38

8.80
1.42
4.02
0.59
2.02
19.33

9.21
1.47
3.86
0.58
2.22
19.32

9.35
1.49
3.82
0.51
2.30
19.58

9.06
1.45
4.06
0.53
2.02
19.50

9.03
1.42
3.79
0.55
2.14
19.15

9.03
1.43
3.89
0.55
2.14
19.30

9.11
1.46
3.94
0.55
2.14
19.43

................................

9.33

9.97

9.88

8.59

8.74

9.79

9.95

9.09

9.50

9.95

10.10

9.35

9.44

9.40

9.73

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


Commercial Inventory
Crude Oil (excluding SPR) .....................................
Pentanes Plus ........................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ........................................
Unfinished Oils .......................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates .............................................
Total Motor Gasoline ..............................................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ..............................
Jet Fuel ...................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ....................................................
Residual Fuel Oil ....................................................
Other Oils (f) ...........................................................
Total Commercial Inventory .......................................
Crude Oil in SPR .......................................................
Heating Oil Reserve ..................................................

355.4
9.4
73.2
86.3
22.0
224.0
81.9
142.1
41.9
146.0
40.6
54.0
1,053
727
2.0

362.7
11.5
121.8
83.4
20.6
214.8
71.8
143.0
44.9
157.9
42.3
52.2
1,112
727
2.0

360.1
11.9
141.2
82.3
18.9
219.3
70.2
149.1
46.8
166.7
39.8
43.2
1,130
727
2.0

332.0
12.5
108.8
80.8
19.4
219.5
63.4
156.1
43.2
164.5
41.3
45.1
1,067
727
2.0

362.6
10.8
68.7
87.4
23.2
214.9
60.8
154.1
40.0
148.5
37.1
49.6
1,043
727
0.0

366.2
13.0
109.0
82.8
21.3
213.4
59.0
154.4
39.9
145.0
37.6
47.1
1,075
727
0.0

348.4
14.4
140.5
83.6
21.4
205.2
56.0
149.1
41.3
151.5
37.4
40.0
1,084
727
1.5

329.9
12.2
107.4
80.2
20.8
212.2
59.6
152.6
40.1
149.8
38.4
41.6
1,033
727
2.0

351.4
12.1
75.4
89.6
22.7
212.8
57.9
154.9
40.7
131.3
38.4
51.4
1,026
727
2.0

344.4
14.2
115.2
85.8
21.8
210.7
62.0
148.7
41.6
141.0
37.6
49.0
1,061
727
2.0

331.0
15.4
141.6
84.8
22.3
207.5
59.9
147.6
42.8
148.7
37.2
42.0
1,073
727
2.0

317.5
13.1
106.6
79.3
21.8
216.1
61.0
155.0
40.5
147.7
38.0
43.0
1,024
727
2.0

332.0
12.5
108.8
80.8
19.4
219.5
63.4
156.1
43.2
164.5
41.3
45.1
1,067
727
2.0

329.9
12.2
107.4
80.2
20.8
212.2
59.6
152.6
40.1
149.8
38.4
41.6
1,033
727
2.0

317.5
13.1
106.6
79.3
21.8
216.1
61.0
155.0
40.5
147.7
38.0
43.0
1,024
727
2.0

Consumption (million barrels per day)


Natural Gas Liquids and Other Liquids
Pentanes Plus ........................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ........................................
Unfinished Oils .......................................................
Finished Liquid Fuels
Motor Gasoline .......................................................
Jet Fuel ...................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ....................................................
Residual Fuel Oil ....................................................
Other Oils (f) ...........................................................
Total Consumption ....................................................
Total Liquid Fuels Net Imports

- = no data available
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
(c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports.
(d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil."
(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels.
(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blend components, and finished motor gasoline.
(g) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
HC: Hydrocarbons
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance (Million Barrels per Day, Except Utilization Factor)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

2012

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Refinery and Blender Net Inputs


Crude OIl ............................................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ....................................
Other Hydrocarbons/Oxygenates .......................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Components ....................
Aviation Gasoline Blend Components ................
Total Refinery and Blender Net Inputs ...................

13.98
0.14
0.30
0.87
0.42
0.47
0.00
16.17

15.24
0.15
0.22
0.95
0.58
0.70
0.00
17.86

15.13
0.16
0.23
0.99
0.66
0.85
0.00
18.02

14.53
0.17
0.36
1.01
0.70
0.62
0.00
17.38

14.23
0.17
0.34
0.96
0.48
0.60
0.00
16.78

14.67
0.16
0.25
0.98
0.78
0.88
0.00
17.72

15.20
0.16
0.25
0.96
0.71
0.69
0.00
17.97

14.63
0.17
0.38
0.96
0.68
0.58
0.00
17.40

14.56
0.15
0.31
0.97
0.51
0.62
0.00
17.12

15.27
0.15
0.25
0.99
0.68
0.74
0.00
18.10

15.26
0.16
0.26
0.98
0.74
0.70
0.00
18.09

14.69
0.17
0.38
0.98
0.68
0.59
0.00
17.50

14.72
0.16
0.28
0.96
0.59
0.66
0.00
17.36

14.68
0.17
0.30
0.97
0.66
0.69
0.00
17.47

14.95
0.16
0.30
0.98
0.65
0.66
0.00
17.70

Refinery Processing Gain .................................

1.02

1.06

1.09

1.09

1.03

1.02

1.04

1.04

1.01

1.03

1.05

1.05

1.06

1.03

1.04

Refinery and Blender Net Production


Liquefied Petroleum Gas ....................................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ...............................................................
Distillate Fuel ......................................................
Residual Fuel ......................................................
Other Oils (a) ......................................................
Total Refinery and Blender Net Production ...........

0.57
8.58
1.35
3.69
0.61
2.39
17.19

0.85
9.09
1.47
4.31
0.59
2.60
18.91

0.75
9.35
1.47
4.39
0.57
2.58
19.11

0.44
9.16
1.38
4.50
0.56
2.45
18.47

0.52
8.76
1.37
4.21
0.53
2.41
17.80

0.83
9.17
1.43
4.22
0.55
2.53
18.74

0.77
9.21
1.48
4.36
0.56
2.63
19.01

0.43
9.16
1.40
4.39
0.59
2.47
18.44

0.53
8.90
1.41
4.26
0.60
2.44
18.13

0.83
9.25
1.46
4.39
0.59
2.61
19.13

0.77
9.25
1.49
4.41
0.57
2.65
19.14

0.43
9.20
1.40
4.43
0.59
2.50
18.55

0.65
9.05
1.42
4.23
0.58
2.51
18.43

0.64
9.08
1.42
4.30
0.56
2.51
18.50

0.64
9.15
1.44
4.38
0.58
2.55
18.74

Refinery Distillation Inputs ...............................


Refinery Operable Distillation Capacity ..........
Refinery Distillation Utilization Factor ..............

14.32
17.58
0.81

15.65
17.59
0.89

15.62
17.59
0.89

15.05
17.59
0.86

14.69
17.70
0.83

15.06
17.70
0.85

15.54
17.70
0.88

14.99
17.70
0.85

14.90
17.70
0.84

15.59
17.70
0.88

15.60
17.70
0.88

15.06
17.70
0.85

15.16
17.59
0.86

15.07
17.70
0.85

15.29
17.70
0.86

- = no data available
(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2012

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

Prices (cents per gallon)


Refiner Wholesale Price .......................
211
218
210
227
267
313
301
293
Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Excluding Taxes
PADD 1 (East Coast) ..........................
PADD 2 (Midwest) ...............................
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) ........................... These forecats are discontinued beginning with the June 2011 edition
PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) ................... These rows will no longer appear beginning with the July 2011 editio
PADD 5 (West Coast) .........................
U.S. Average ...................................
Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Including Taxes
PADD 1 ..............................................
271
278
265
288
329
380
365
356
PADD 2 ..............................................
265
276
270
286
327
383
364
352
PADD 3 ..............................................
259
269
257
272
315
368
354
344
PADD 4 ..............................................
264
284
279
279
311
366
370
355
PADD 5 ..............................................
294
304
304
311
353
404
393
381
U.S. Average ...................................
271
281
272
288
329
382
368
357
Gasoline All Grades Including Taxes
277
286
277
294
335
388
373
363
End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)
Total Gasoline Inventories
PADD 1 ..............................................
56.6
PADD 2 ..............................................
55.2
PADD 3 ..............................................
74.2
PADD 4 ..............................................
5.9
PADD 5 ..............................................
32.1
U.S. Total ........................................
224.0
Finished Gasoline Inventories
PADD 1 ..............................................
15.4
PADD 2 ..............................................
27.9
PADD 3 ..............................................
29.4
PADD 4 ..............................................
4.1
PADD 5 ..............................................
5.1
U.S. Total ........................................
81.9
Gasoline Blending Components Inventories
PADD 1 ..............................................
41.3
PADD 2 ..............................................
27.3
PADD 3 ..............................................
44.8
PADD 4 ..............................................
1.8
PADD 5 ..............................................
27.0
U.S. Total ........................................
142.1

299

2nd
309

3rd
304

4th

2010

295

Year
2011

2012

217

294

302

of the Short-Term Energy Outlo

361
358
349
352
386
362
367

370
370
360
370
402
374
379

368
367
357
375
400
372
377

358
354
346
358
385
360
365

275
274
264
277
303
278
283

358
357
346
352
383
360
365

364
362
353
364
393
367
372

59.9
48.9
72.5
6.4
27.2
214.8

55.3
52.5
73.9
6.5
31.1
219.3

52.7
49.1
78.4
7.0
32.3
219.5

55.0
50.5
70.3
6.5
32.7
214.9

54.3
48.7
71.7
6.8
32.0
213.4

52.4
48.7
66.9
6.6
30.5
205.2

55.5
49.4
69.1
7.0
31.4
212.2

55.1
50.2
70.5
6.6
30.4
212.8

55.3
50.0
69.5
6.3
29.6
210.7

52.8
50.3
69.0
6.5
28.9
207.5

56.0
51.0
71.7
7.0
30.3
216.1

52.7
49.1
78.4
7.0
32.3
219.5

55.5
49.4
69.1
7.0
31.4
212.2

56.0
51.0
71.7
7.0
30.3
216.1

13.3
24.3
25.2
4.1
4.9
71.8

10.1
24.8
25.9
4.2
5.3
70.2

8.9
23.0
22.7
4.7
4.2
63.4

7.9
24.0
20.7
4.3
3.9
60.8

9.6
22.8
17.7
4.5
4.3
59.0

9.3
22.6
16.1
4.4
3.7
56.0

11.0
23.5
18.2
4.5
2.4
59.6

9.3
22.9
18.0
4.4
3.4
57.9

10.5
23.2
20.3
4.3
3.7
62.0

9.1
23.1
20.1
4.3
3.4
59.9

10.5
23.5
20.6
4.5
2.0
61.0

8.9
23.0
22.7
4.7
4.2
63.4

11.0
23.5
18.2
4.5
2.4
59.6

10.5
23.5
20.6
4.5
2.0
61.0

46.6
24.6
47.3
2.2
22.2
143.0

45.3
27.8
48.0
2.3
25.8
149.1

43.8
26.2
55.6
2.3
28.1
156.1

47.1
26.4
49.7
2.2
28.8
154.1

44.6
25.9
54.0
2.2
27.7
154.4

43.1
26.2
50.8
2.3
26.8
149.1

44.5
25.9
50.8
2.4
29.0
152.6

45.8
27.3
52.6
2.2
27.0
154.9

44.8
26.8
49.2
2.0
25.9
148.7

43.7
27.2
49.0
2.2
25.6
147.6

45.6
27.6
51.1
2.5
28.3
155.0

43.8
26.2
55.6
2.3
28.1
156.1

44.5
25.9
50.8
2.4
29.0
152.6

45.6
27.6
51.1
2.5
28.3
155.0

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).
See Petroleum for Administration Defense District in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4d. U.S. Regional Heating Oil Prices and Distillate Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

Prices (cents per gallon)


Refiner Wholesale Prices
Heating Oil .........................
Diesel Fuel .........................
Heating Oil Residential Prices Excluding Taxes
Northeast ...........................
South ................................. This table discontinued beginning with the June 2011 Short-Term Energy
Midwest ............................. This table will no longer appear beginning with the July 2011 edition
West ..................................
U.S. Average ..................
Heating Oil Residential Prices Including State Taxes (Bureau of Labor Statistics all-urban consumer price survey)
Northeast ...........................
South .................................
Midwest .............................
West ..................................
U.S. Average ..................

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

Outlook

Total Distillate End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


PADD 1 (East Coast) ............
PADD 2 (Midwest) ................
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) .............
PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) ....
PADD 5 (West Coast) ...........
U.S. Total ...........................
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) for inventories and to U.S. Census regions for prices.
See Petroleum for Administration Defense District and "Census region" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

2012

Table 4e. U.S. Regional Propane Prices and Inventories


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

Prices (cents per gallon)


Propane Wholesale Price (a) .....
Propane Residential Prices excluding Taxes
Northeast ..................................
South ....................................... This table discontinued beginning with the June 2011 Short-Term Energy
Midwest .................................... This table will no longer appear beginning with the July 2011 edition
West ........................................
U.S. Average .........................
Propane Residential Prices including State Taxes
Northeast ..................................
South .......................................
Midwest ....................................
West ........................................
U.S. Average .........................
Propane End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)
PADD 1 (East Coast) ...................
PADD 2 (Midwest) .......................
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) ....................
PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) ...........
PADD 5 (West Coast) ..................
U.S. Total .................................

2nd

Outlook

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010

2011

2012

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

60.59
1.16
6.67
52.77
57.93
11.41
9.86
1.55
3.12
8.29
0.20
16.26
82.67
0.75
83.41

61.27
0.98
6.22
54.07
58.56
9.65
8.44
1.22
2.77
6.89
0.16
-11.94
53.67
0.75
54.42

61.97
0.89
5.94
55.14
59.28
9.93
8.99
0.94
2.71
7.22
0.19
-8.22
58.47
-0.53
57.93

63.46
1.11
5.82
56.54
60.66
9.97
8.95
1.02
3.85
6.12
0.19
4.08
71.05
-2.10
68.95

63.72
1.12
5.60
57.00
60.95
11.10
9.87
1.23
4.39
6.71
0.20
16.97
84.83
-1.06
83.78

65.48
1.03
5.64
58.82
62.62
8.96
7.93
1.03
3.92
5.04
0.16
-11.09
56.73
-1.05
55.68

64.68
0.94
5.19
58.54
61.85
9.51
8.62
0.88
3.81
5.70
0.17
-10.93
56.79
1.05
57.84

64.56
1.07
5.42
58.07
61.73
9.19
8.32
0.87
4.11
5.08
0.19
4.45
71.45
-0.26
71.19

64.58
1.14
5.52
57.92
61.75
10.22
9.33
0.89
4.22
6.00
0.19
15.16
83.10
0.29
83.39

64.37
0.94
5.40
58.04
61.56
8.86
7.86
1.00
3.82
5.04
0.16
-10.90
55.86
-0.09
55.77

64.44
0.97
5.10
58.37
61.62
9.34
8.35
0.99
3.80
5.55
0.17
-9.23
58.11
0.44
58.55

65.04
1.09
5.21
58.75
62.19
8.80
7.90
0.90
3.86
4.94
0.19
4.25
71.57
-0.28
71.29

61.83
1.03
6.16
54.64
59.12
10.24
9.06
1.18
3.11
7.12
0.18
-0.01
66.41
-0.29
66.12

64.61
1.04
5.46
58.11
61.79
9.68
8.68
1.00
4.05
5.63
0.18
-0.21
67.38
-0.32
67.06

64.61
1.03
5.31
58.27
61.78
9.31
8.36
0.95
3.92
5.38
0.18
-0.19
67.15
0.09
67.24

Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)


Residential ...................................
26.69
Commercial .................................
14.81
Industrial ......................................
19.70
Electric Power (c) .........................
16.37
Lease and Plant Fuel ...................
3.58
Pipeline and Distribution Use .......
2.18
Vehicle Use .................................
0.09
Total Consumption ..........................
83.41

7.33
5.73
17.12
19.11
3.62
1.43
0.09
54.42

3.76
4.24
17.01
27.66
3.66
1.52
0.09
57.93

16.70
10.45
18.53
17.62
3.75
1.81
0.09
68.95

26.17
14.66
20.23
16.67
3.76
2.19
0.09
83.78

7.50
5.81
17.79
19.06
3.87
1.57
0.09
55.68

3.66
3.96
17.45
27.28
3.82
1.59
0.09
57.84

17.64
10.55
19.14
18.09
3.81
1.86
0.09
71.19

25.11
14.12
20.65
17.31
3.81
2.30
0.09
83.39

6.93
5.48
18.07
19.85
3.80
1.56
0.09
55.77

3.67
3.95
17.76
27.70
3.80
1.57
0.09
58.55

17.58
10.58
19.34
18.00
3.84
1.86
0.09
71.29

13.57
8.78
18.08
20.21
3.65
1.73
0.09
66.12

13.69
8.72
18.65
20.30
3.81
1.80
0.09
67.06

13.31
8.53
18.95
20.73
3.81
1.82
0.09
67.24

End-of-period Inventories (billion cubic feet)


Working Gas Inventory ................
1,662
Producing Region (d) ................
627
East Consuming Region (d) ......
744
West Consuming Region (d) .....
291

2,741
962
1,330
450

3,500
1,092
1,913
495

3,107
1,077
1,591
439

1,581
739
622
220

2,590
1,021
1,213
356

3,595
1,181
1,941
473

3,186
1,101
1,683
402

1,807
781
762
265

2,798
1,026
1,366
407

3,647
1,139
2,018
490

3,256
1,082
1,733
440

3,107
1,077
1,591
439

3,186
1,101
1,683
402

3,256
1,082
1,733
440

Supply (billion cubic feet per day)


Total Marketed Production ............
Alaska ......................................
Federal GOM (a) .......................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) .....
Total Dry Gas Production .............
Gross Imports ..............................
Pipeline ....................................
LNG ..........................................
Gross Exports ..............................
Net Imports ..................................
Supplemental Gaseous Fuels ......
Net Inventory Withdrawals ...........
Total Supply ....................................
Balancing Item (b) ..........................
Total Primary Supply .......................

2010

Year
2011

1st

2012

- = no data available
(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.
(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer toMethodology for EIA Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Estimates (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/methodology.html).
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
LNG: liquefied natural gas.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st
Wholesale/Spot
U.S. Average Wellhead ......
Henry Hub Spot Price ........
Residential
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Commercial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Industrial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

4.79
5.30

4.07
4.45

4.11
4.41

3.67
3.91

3.99
4.31

3.94
4.38

3.98
4.24

4.28
4.59

4.35
4.80

4.06
4.40

4.23
4.60

4.57
5.08

4.15
4.52

4.05
4.38

4.30
4.72

14.33
12.79
9.54
9.09
12.61
10.50
9.72
9.24
10.43
10.59

15.56
15.17
12.24
11.89
18.74
14.81
13.93
9.83
10.47
12.54

17.74
18.46
16.66
16.50
24.07
17.75
18.19
13.03
11.10
15.47

14.29
12.74
9.37
9.34
12.28
10.73
10.22
9.25
9.89
10.56

13.99
11.90
8.88
8.84
11.98
9.91
8.60
8.87
9.98
9.98

15.15
14.17
11.10
11.03
17.29
13.84
13.64
9.27
9.79
12.00

17.58
18.31
16.46
17.15
24.48
18.20
18.46
12.62
10.36
15.98

15.08
14.42
10.84
10.10
15.58
12.84
11.48
9.42
10.35
12.11

14.63
13.23
9.88
9.14
13.65
12.15
10.37
8.45
10.53
11.08

15.53
14.58
11.81
11.70
18.08
15.14
14.42
9.41
10.38
12.66

18.44
18.67
17.20
18.01
25.07
19.43
19.41
13.31
11.08
16.64

15.79
14.78
11.35
10.70
16.25
13.86
12.27
10.01
10.91
12.66

14.78
13.46
10.24
9.91
13.71
11.33
10.94
9.63
10.37
11.18

14.77
13.38
10.20
9.97
14.51
11.61
10.76
9.40
10.09
11.35

15.39
14.24
11.01
10.43
15.71
13.35
12.10
9.44
10.67
12.19

11.68
10.76
8.85
8.36
10.53
9.42
8.48
8.33
9.48
9.30

11.68
9.77
9.24
8.38
10.74
10.12
9.06
8.11
8.97
9.25

11.45
9.51
9.67
9.54
10.74
10.23
9.17
8.89
9.21
9.63

11.01
9.70
8.14
7.70
9.50
9.08
7.62
8.12
9.10
8.66

11.15
9.80
8.18
7.92
9.75
8.80
7.34
7.99
9.15
8.66

11.68
9.54
8.76
7.98
10.22
9.82
8.21
7.69
8.69
9.04

11.71
9.70
9.43
9.38
10.80
10.57
9.18
8.44
8.68
9.63

12.25
11.02
9.04
8.25
11.11
10.77
9.09
8.49
9.44
9.83

12.34
10.83
9.08
8.39
10.93
10.28
8.55
8.38
9.40
9.71

12.38
10.38
9.47
8.50
11.24
10.72
8.86
8.29
8.72
9.73

12.33
10.26
9.89
10.01
11.60
11.14
9.69
9.21
8.96
10.19

12.70
11.34
9.49
8.63
11.70
11.31
9.58
9.01
9.76
10.27

11.47
10.15
8.76
8.28
10.28
9.51
8.48
8.29
9.21
9.14

11.59
10.07
8.62
8.13
10.35
9.66
8.22
8.13
9.05
9.18

12.44
10.82
9.32
8.60
11.29
10.70
9.02
8.63
9.28
9.94

11.41
10.04
7.98
6.73
7.61
7.21
5.58
7.32
7.77
6.51

9.74
9.01
7.01
5.65
6.14
5.64
4.36
6.36
7.01
4.98

9.07
9.01
6.96
5.59
6.28
5.61
4.59
6.59
7.01
5.07

10.21
9.54
6.88
5.74
6.09
5.44
3.98
6.40
6.92
4.89

10.67
9.58
7.39
6.28
6.52
5.83
4.24
6.81
7.23
5.40

10.54
8.48
7.12
5.27
6.79
6.05
4.59
6.20
6.10
5.23

10.30
8.56
7.17
5.16
7.06
6.37
4.68
6.68
6.19
5.25

11.40
10.28
7.45
6.04
7.75
7.25
4.80
7.71
7.61
5.87

12.42
10.52
7.98
6.68
7.79
7.60
4.91
7.99
8.12
6.25

11.43
8.90
7.35
5.43
6.90
6.33
4.77
6.88
6.81
5.44

10.85
8.79
7.48
5.54
7.46
6.69
4.91
7.26
6.65
5.51

12.24
10.82
7.95
6.44
8.25
7.53
5.11
8.25
8.16
6.22

10.37
9.60
7.38
6.01
6.61
6.06
4.62
6.72
7.21
5.40

10.80
9.38
7.33
5.72
7.05
6.39
4.58
6.89
6.83
5.44

11.91
10.04
7.79
6.10
7.62
7.08
4.92
7.68
7.52
5.87

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and Inventories


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Supply (million short tons)


Production ........................................
Appalachia ....................................
Interior ..........................................
Western ........................................
Primary Inventory Withdrawals ..........
Imports ............................................
Exports ............................................
Metallurgical Coal ..........................
Steam Coal ...................................
Total Primary Supply ...........................

265.3
84.4
37.7
143.3
-2.4
4.8
17.8
14.2
3.6
249.9

265.1
84.4
37.8
142.8
1.5
5.1
22.0
15.6
6.4
249.7

278.2
83.5
41.4
153.3
6.2
4.7
21.1
13.0
8.0
268.0

276.6
83.8
40.7
152.1
0.3
4.8
20.9
13.3
7.6
260.8

271.2
87.5
38.8
145.0
4.8
3.4
26.6
17.2
9.5
252.8

263.4
85.7
38.8
138.9
-1.7
4.2
26.8
18.2
8.6
253.7

274.8
83.8
36.8
154.2
1.0
5.1
22.4
15.3
7.1
258.5

275.4
84.7
37.5
153.2
1.2
4.8
22.0
15.0
7.0
259.3

283.6
84.8
40.3
158.5
-4.6
4.5
18.7
14.5
4.1
264.9

269.7
83.1
38.6
148.1
0.5
4.4
22.3
15.3
7.0
252.3

280.6
86.4
38.0
156.1
3.8
5.2
21.6
13.5
8.1
267.9

278.0
85.9
38.2
153.9
-0.2
4.8
20.7
13.7
7.0
261.8

1085.3
336.1
157.6
591.6
5.6
19.4
81.7
56.1
25.6
1028.5

1084.7
341.6
151.9
591.3
5.2
17.5
97.7
65.6
32.1
1024.3

1111.9
340.2
155.1
616.6
-0.5
18.9
83.3
57.1
26.2
1047.0

Secondary Inventory Withdrawals .....


Waste Coal (a) .................................
Total Supply ........................................

13.1
3.1
266.1

-3.8
3.3
249.1

18.1
3.2
289.4

-12.5
3.2
251.6

9.4
3.2
265.4

-11.4
3.2
245.5

13.1
3.2
274.8

-4.5
3.2
258.0

6.9
3.2
275.0

-10.3
3.2
245.2

12.3
3.2
283.4

-4.6
3.2
260.4

14.9
12.7
1056.1

6.6
12.7
1043.6

4.3
12.8
1064.0

Consumption (million short tons)


Coke Plants .....................................
Electric Power Sector (b) ..................
Retail and Other Industry ..................
Residential and Commercial ..........
Other Industrial .............................
Total Consumption .............................

4.9
246.3
13.4
1.0
12.4
264.6

5.4
229.8
12.3
0.6
11.7
247.4

5.5
267.9
12.8
0.6
12.1
286.1

5.4
231.6
13.2
0.8
12.4
250.1

5.4
235.1
13.0
1.1
11.9
253.9

5.1
228.5
11.9
0.6
11.2
245.5

6.0
257.2
11.6
0.6
11.0
274.8

5.7
240.2
12.0
0.9
11.2
258.0

6.5
256.0
12.5
1.0
11.4
275.0

6.3
227.1
11.8
0.8
11.0
245.2

7.0
264.6
11.9
0.8
11.0
283.4

6.5
241.2
12.7
1.2
11.5
260.4

21.1
975.6
51.6
3.1
48.5
1048.3

22.2
961.0
48.5
3.1
45.3
1032.1

26.3
988.9
48.9
3.9
44.9
1064.0

1.5

1.7

3.2

1.4

11.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

7.8

11.5

0.0

End-of-period Inventories (million short tons)


Primary Inventories (d) ......................
50.2
Secondary Inventories ......................
184.0
Electric Power Sector ....................
177.8
Retail and General Industry ...........
4.2
Coke Plants ..................................
1.6

48.7
187.8
181.1
4.3
2.0

42.4
169.7
162.8
4.5
1.9

42.2
182.2
175.2
4.5
1.9

37.3
172.8
166.8
3.8
1.6

39.1
184.2
177.5
4.1
2.0

38.1
171.1
163.9
4.7
2.0

36.9
175.6
168.1
5.0
2.0

41.5
168.7
162.1
4.3
1.8

41.0
179.0
171.7
4.6
2.2

37.2
166.7
158.8
5.2
2.1

37.4
171.3
163.1
5.5
2.2

42.2
182.2
175.2
4.5
1.9

36.9
175.6
168.1
5.0
2.0

37.4
171.3
163.1
5.5
2.2

5.58

5.58

5.59

5.60

5.57

5.57

5.57

5.57

5.70

5.70

5.70

5.70

5.59

5.57

5.70

0.234

0.253

0.245

0.237

0.257

0.263

0.272

0.257

0.267

0.281

0.273

0.256

0.242

0.262

0.269

2.26

2.26

2.28

2.25

2.35

2.29

2.26

2.21

2.29

2.27

2.25

2.22

2.26

2.28

2.26

Discrepancy (c)

Coal Market Indicators


Coal Miner Productivity
(Tons per hour) .............................
Total Raw Steel Production
(Million short tons per day) ............
Cost of Coal to Electric Utilities
(Dollars per million Btu) .................

- = no data available
(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.
(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.
(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st
2nd
Electricity Supply (billion kilowatthours per day)
Electricity Generation ....................
11.01
10.90
Electric Power Sector (a) ............
10.61
10.50
Industrial Sector .........................
0.38
0.38
Commercial Sector .....................
0.02
0.02
Net Imports .................................
0.12
0.07
Total Supply ..................................
11.13
10.97
Losses and Unaccounted for (b) ...
0.52
0.95
Electricity Consumption (billion kilowatthours per day)
Retail Sales ..................................
10.25
9.66
Residential Sector ......................
4.26
3.41
Commercial Sector .....................
3.45
3.57
Industrial Sector .........................
2.51
2.66
Transportation Sector .................
0.02
0.02
Direct Use (c) ................................
0.37
0.36
Total Consumption .......................
10.61
10.02
Prices
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal ...........................................
2.26
2.26
Natural Gas ...............................
6.06
4.89
Residual Fuel Oil ........................
12.10
12.36
Distillate Fuel Oil ........................
15.84
16.48
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector ......................
10.88
11.90
Commercial Sector .....................
9.87
10.30
Industrial Sector .........................
6.53
6.75

2011

2012
2010

Year
2011

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2012

12.65
12.22
0.40
0.02
0.06
12.71
0.70

10.58
10.19
0.37
0.02
0.04
10.62
0.70

11.02
10.64
0.36
0.02
0.08
11.10
0.50

10.89
10.50
0.37
0.02
0.09
10.98
0.85

12.44
12.00
0.41
0.02
0.11
12.55
0.74

10.66
10.25
0.39
0.02
0.08
10.74
0.70

11.32
10.89
0.41
0.02
0.08
11.41
0.55

11.10
10.69
0.39
0.02
0.08
11.18
0.87

12.69
12.24
0.42
0.02
0.11
12.80
0.76

10.85
10.43
0.40
0.02
0.07
10.93
0.70

11.29
10.88
0.38
0.02
0.07
11.36
0.72

11.26
10.85
0.38
0.02
0.09
11.35
0.70

11.49
11.07
0.41
0.02
0.09
11.58
0.72

11.62
4.74
4.09
2.76
0.02
0.39
12.01

9.56
3.48
3.45
2.61
0.02
0.36
9.92

10.25
4.15
3.46
2.62
0.02
0.35
10.60

9.78
3.40
3.59
2.76
0.02
0.35
10.13

11.42
4.48
4.06
2.85
0.02
0.39
11.81

9.67
3.47
3.50
2.68
0.02
0.37
10.04

10.47
4.20
3.51
2.73
0.02
0.39
10.86

9.94
3.44
3.65
2.83
0.02
0.37
10.31

11.63
4.57
4.12
2.92
0.02
0.40
12.03

9.84
3.52
3.55
2.75
0.02
0.38
10.23

10.27
3.97
3.64
2.64
0.02
0.37
10.64

10.28
3.88
3.65
2.73
0.02
0.37
10.65

10.47
3.93
3.71
2.81
0.02
0.39
10.86

2.28
4.88
12.36
16.18

2.25
4.69
14.19
17.94

2.35
5.05
15.58
20.82

2.29
4.88
17.55
23.34

2.26
5.02
17.80
23.39

2.21
5.28
18.03
23.74

2.29
5.51
18.30
23.66

2.27
5.09
18.32
23.47

2.25
5.29
18.21
23.67

2.22
5.63
18.13
23.88

2.26
5.08
12.63
16.60

2.28
5.05
17.40
22.74

2.26
5.36
18.25
23.67

12.02
10.71
7.17

11.50
10.06
6.67

11.25
10.02
6.67

12.06
10.42
6.76

12.32
10.90
7.15

11.65
10.22
6.68

11.11
10.02
6.56

12.11
10.46
6.79

12.37
10.96
7.20

11.75
10.29
6.73

11.58
10.26
6.79

11.83
10.41
6.82

11.84
10.46
6.83

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.
(c) Direct Use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities
for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review .
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Total All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

141
394
579
337
1,129
405
595
243
424
15
4,261

114
326
456
250
878
291
514
227
346
13
3,414

150
444
639
350
1,232
428
771
325
391
13
4,742

122
335
481
261
891
294
467
225
390
15
3,482

145
405
578
332
1,043
373
574
247
439
15
4,152

114
322
450
255
868
277
528
227
349
14
3,403

143
414
583
330
1,148
398
734
326
391
14
4,480

123
335
485
269
870
286
475
227
384
15
3,468

144
405
576
337
1,068
382
586
251
438
15
4,202

116
324
454
258
877
289
520
237
355
14
3,443

143
415
589
335
1,176
407
750
336
400
14
4,566

125
342
494
275
883
293
475
232
389
15
3,523

132
375
539
300
1,032
354
587
255
388
14
3,975

131
369
524
296
982
333
578
257
390
14
3,876

132
372
528
302
1,001
343
583
264
396
14
3,934

123
443
490
266
792
220
442
234
420
17
3,447

120
434
491
267
852
228
479
251
432
16
3,571

137
506
555
302
965
271
578
285
478
17
4,092

119
425
481
261
804
213
450
241
442
17
3,453

123
435
502
268
788
216
448
237
423
18
3,456

122
433
496
269
856
227
485
256
433
17
3,594

137
494
546
302
965
264
565
289
483
17
4,063

121
429
485
266
821
214
457
247
440
17
3,497

128
450
500
271
815
217
445
243
428
18
3,514

123
437
501
273
873
229
494
262
438
17
3,646

138
498
552
306
984
267
576
295
489
18
4,122

122
433
490
269
837
216
465
252
445
18
3,548

125
452
504
274
853
233
487
253
443
17
3,642

126
448
507
276
858
231
489
258
445
17
3,654

128
455
511
280
877
232
495
263
450
17
3,708

76
178
523
222
360
336
397
195
214
13
2,514

77
186
544
235
397
334
432
209
228
14
2,655

83
192
551
245
406
334
464
232
245
14
2,765

76
181
534
233
379
334
421
207
229
14
2,607

75
195
543
233
377
343
422
204
219
14
2,624

80
197
560
242
410
339
459
223
236
14
2,761

83
203
568
254
416
342
477
239
254
15
2,850

79
191
545
244
389
346
437
212
228
14
2,685

78
197
565
243
394
359
441
211
228
13
2,731

80
202
572
249
417
356
469
231
238
14
2,829

83
208
580
262
423
358
487
247
256
15
2,920

79
196
557
250
395
363
446
219
230
14
2,751

78
184
538
234
385
334
429
211
229
14
2,636

79
197
554
243
398
343
449
220
235
14
2,731

80
200
569
251
407
359
461
227
238
14
2,808

342
1,027
1,594
825
2,286
960
1,433
672
1,061
45
10,246

312
957
1,492
752
2,130
854
1,425
687
1,008
43
9,660

371
1,152
1,746
897
2,606
1,032
1,813
842
1,117
44
11,620

318
952
1,498
755
2,078
842
1,338
673
1,063
45
9,562

345
1,046
1,625
832
2,212
932
1,444
688
1,084
47
10,254

317
963
1,507
766
2,138
843
1,472
707
1,020
44
9,779

364
1,123
1,699
887
2,532
1,004
1,776
854
1,131
45
11,416

325
968
1,516
779
2,083
846
1,368
687
1,054
46
9,672

352
1,065
1,642
851
2,280
958
1,472
705
1,097
46
10,470

321
974
1,529
780
2,171
874
1,484
730
1,033
44
9,940

366
1,135
1,722
903
2,587
1,032
1,813
878
1,148
46
11,631

328
983
1,542
795
2,119
872
1,386
704
1,066
47
9,844

336
1,022
1,583
808
2,275
922
1,503
719
1,063
45
10,274

338
1,025
1,587
816
2,242
907
1,516
734
1,072
46
10,282

342
1,039
1,609
833
2,290
934
1,539
754
1,086
46
10,473

- = no data available
(a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7c. U.S. Regional Electricity Prices (Cents per Kilowatthour)


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

16.56
14.82
10.50
8.33
10.46
8.81
10.28
9.71
12.03
10.88

16.60
16.16
11.88
10.08
11.31
9.90
11.00
10.83
12.47
11.90

16.46
16.65
11.82
10.61
11.42
10.02
10.79
11.22
13.37
12.02

16.43
15.39
11.38
9.45
10.94
10.05
10.46
9.97
12.20
11.50

15.99
15.21
11.03
9.06
10.87
9.77
10.08
9.76
12.03
11.25

16.33
16.53
12.05
10.34
11.42
10.57
10.89
10.84
12.57
12.06

16.28
17.32
12.05
10.86
11.68
10.35
11.03
11.24
13.87
12.32

16.31
15.65
11.52
9.52
11.18
10.15
10.48
10.23
12.26
11.65

16.43
15.24
10.92
8.90
10.55
9.32
10.15
9.81
11.99
11.11

16.62
16.73
12.10
10.45
11.42
10.31
11.00
10.99
12.63
12.11

16.71
17.56
12.11
10.97
11.71
10.21
11.06
11.39
13.89
12.37

16.68
15.89
11.57
9.61
11.27
10.08
10.55
10.38
12.32
11.75

16.51
15.79
11.39
9.61
11.03
9.66
10.64
10.50
12.51
11.58

16.22
16.20
11.65
9.95
11.30
10.19
10.65
10.57
12.67
11.83

16.61
16.36
11.66
9.97
11.24
9.96
10.71
10.70
12.70
11.84

15.27
13.23
9.17
7.08
9.13
8.86
8.95
8.20
10.78
9.87

14.71
13.93
9.51
7.93
9.33
9.33
8.80
9.04
12.20
10.30

15.33
14.60
9.59
8.60
9.42
9.54
8.74
9.25
14.05
10.71

14.46
13.43
9.28
7.58
9.35
9.75
8.53
8.40
11.40
10.06

14.38
13.26
9.33
7.60
9.46
9.67
8.59
8.31
10.98
10.02

14.36
14.01
9.54
8.36
9.51
9.65
8.76
8.97
12.39
10.42

15.02
15.05
9.68
8.86
9.68
9.60
8.88
9.20
14.16
10.90

14.56
13.46
9.41
7.70
9.57
9.57
8.51
8.63
11.94
10.22

14.68
13.28
9.26
7.50
9.29
9.38
8.71
8.30
11.16
10.02

14.68
14.20
9.56
8.31
9.47
9.65
8.78
9.00
12.57
10.46

15.32
15.24
9.71
8.86
9.69
9.74
8.90
9.24
14.28
10.96

14.79
13.64
9.45
7.72
9.60
9.73
8.54
8.68
12.06
10.29

14.96
13.83
9.40
7.83
9.31
9.38
8.75
8.76
12.17
10.26

14.60
13.99
9.50
8.15
9.56
9.62
8.70
8.80
12.43
10.41

14.88
14.13
9.50
8.12
9.52
9.63
8.74
8.83
12.58
10.46

12.33
8.50
6.34
5.43
6.45
5.31
6.08
5.69
7.29
6.53

12.91
8.52
6.48
5.74
6.53
5.85
6.00
6.17
7.84
6.75

12.78
8.71
6.71
6.45
7.00
6.33
6.14
6.87
8.73
7.17

12.62
8.30
6.52
5.67
6.54
5.97
5.80
5.65
7.68
6.67

12.71
8.69
6.41
5.79
6.57
5.89
5.83
5.63
7.41
6.67

12.49
8.36
6.48
6.03
6.58
5.98
5.96
6.02
7.72
6.76

12.64
8.68
6.73
6.56
7.01
6.25
6.12
6.67
8.64
7.15

12.46
8.16
6.43
5.70
6.65
5.85
5.82
5.79
7.83
6.68

12.70
8.24
6.28
5.60
6.45
5.65
6.02
5.75
7.29
6.56

12.53
8.43
6.48
5.97
6.59
6.01
6.02
6.19
7.81
6.79

12.66
8.73
6.72
6.57
7.08
6.37
6.17
6.81
8.73
7.20

12.47
8.25
6.43
5.72
6.73
5.95
5.86
5.90
7.92
6.73

12.66
8.51
6.51
5.84
6.64
5.87
6.01
6.13
7.91
6.79

12.57
8.47
6.51
6.03
6.71
5.99
5.94
6.05
7.93
6.82

12.59
8.42
6.48
5.98
6.72
6.00
6.02
6.19
7.96
6.83

15.12
13.01
8.72
7.14
9.37
7.60
8.71
8.02
10.57
9.47

14.92
13.63
9.13
7.96
9.63
8.16
8.74
8.76
11.30
9.89

15.19
14.40
9.50
8.80
9.99
8.70
8.95
9.35
12.64
10.40

14.74
13.13
8.97
7.64
9.52
8.36
8.35
8.08
10.89
9.66

14.65
13.15
8.94
7.67
9.63
8.30
8.36
8.03
10.77
9.66

14.57
13.69
9.15
8.28
9.73
8.47
8.65
8.64
11.36
9.96

14.95
14.72
9.51
8.94
10.15
8.76
9.03
9.27
12.80
10.52

14.68
13.16
9.01
7.71
9.70
8.24
8.34
8.28
11.16
9.75

14.93
13.07
8.81
7.51
9.39
7.96
8.47
8.07
10.68
9.56

14.82
13.82
9.16
8.27
9.71
8.39
8.69
8.76
11.48
9.99

15.23
14.86
9.52
8.98
10.18
8.76
9.06
9.38
12.89
10.57

14.92
13.32
9.04
7.74
9.76
8.27
8.37
8.37
11.25
9.82

15.00
13.58
9.09
7.91
9.64
8.21
8.71
8.60
11.37
9.88

14.72
13.71
9.16
8.17
9.82
8.46
8.62
8.60
11.55
9.99

14.98
13.80
9.14
8.15
9.78
8.35
8.67
8.69
11.60
10.00

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric
Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7d. U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel and Sector (Billion Kilowatthours per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Residual Fuel Oil .......................
Distillate Fuel Oil .......................
Petroleum Coke ........................
Other Petroleum .......................
Nuclear ........................................
Pumped Storage Hydroelectric .....
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Geothermal ...............................
Solar .........................................
Wind .........................................
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables ....................
Subtotal Electric Power Sector .....
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Petroleum ....................................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Renewables (d) ............................
Subtotal Commercial Sector .........
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables (e) ...............
Subtotal Industrial Sector .............
Total All Sectors ...........................

2011
2nd

2012
3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

5.227
2.134
0.011
0.096
0.039
0.018
0.034
0.006
2.230
-0.016
0.019

4.611
2.403
0.011
0.084
0.035
0.014
0.032
0.003
2.181
-0.015
0.019

5.283
3.368
0.012
0.097
0.043
0.014
0.036
0.004
2.321
-0.018
0.021

4.811
2.224
0.012
0.073
0.027
0.013
0.029
0.003
2.152
-0.017
0.019

5.017
2.461
0.008
0.094
0.039
0.020
0.033
0.002
2.211
-0.011
0.019

4.865
2.474
0.010
0.091
0.036
0.015
0.037
0.003
2.155
-0.016
0.019

4.983
2.534
0.011
0.087
0.036
0.015
0.033
0.004
2.221
-0.016
0.019

0.611
0.044
0.002
0.298
0.029
0.044
10.252

0.727
0.044
0.003
0.345
0.030
0.044
10.894

0.842
0.043
0.008
0.427
0.028
0.046
10.687

0.668
0.044
0.008
0.357
0.033
0.048
12.242

0.639
0.044
0.003
0.392
0.031
0.046
10.430

0.700
0.043
0.004
0.259
0.032
0.044
10.880

0.810
0.050
0.004
0.317
0.029
0.043
10.851

0.719
0.044
0.005
0.380
0.031
0.046
11.065

0.003
0.013
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.023

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.022

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.022

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022

0.003
0.013
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.024

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.023

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.023

0.043
0.208
0.022
0.006
0.010

0.046
0.242
0.025
0.007
0.011

0.044
0.227
0.023
0.006
0.010

0.045
0.239
0.024
0.007
0.009

0.042
0.225
0.024
0.007
0.010

0.046
0.250
0.026
0.007
0.011

0.044
0.233
0.024
0.007
0.010

0.051
0.216
0.023
0.006
0.010

0.045
0.220
0.023
0.006
0.010

0.044
0.237
0.024
0.007
0.010

0.005
0.070
0.002
0.366
10.890

0.003
0.076
0.002
0.411
12.438

0.004
0.075
0.002
0.391
10.664

0.006
0.075
0.002
0.407
11.324

0.005
0.074
0.002
0.391
11.101

0.003
0.078
0.002
0.423
12.690

0.004
0.077
0.002
0.401
10.854

0.004
0.072
0.002
0.385
11.288

0.004
0.072
0.002
0.383
11.256

0.005
0.076
0.002
0.406
11.493

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5.181
2.011
0.009
0.094
0.034
0.023
0.034
0.003
2.249
-0.008
0.017

4.750
2.306
0.009
0.095
0.042
0.016
0.034
0.002
2.116
-0.008
0.020

5.450
3.329
0.008
0.111
0.054
0.019
0.035
0.002
2.314
-0.015
0.020

4.688
2.188
0.006
0.078
0.027
0.020
0.028
0.003
2.164
-0.014
0.019

4.883
2.040
0.008
0.082
0.025
0.017
0.037
0.003
2.258
-0.011
0.017

4.620
2.303
0.010
0.095
0.039
0.015
0.037
0.003
2.012
-0.016
0.020

5.147
3.309
0.011
0.108
0.049
0.014
0.041
0.003
2.257
-0.018
0.021

4.807
2.231
0.010
0.080
0.030
0.013
0.033
0.003
2.093
-0.017
0.019

0.697
0.044
0.001
0.235
0.032
0.042
10.605

0.797
0.043
0.005
0.291
0.029
0.045
10.497

0.658
0.042
0.005
0.221
0.034
0.044
12.221

0.647
0.043
0.002
0.290
0.030
0.045
10.187

0.900
0.058
0.003
0.328
0.030
0.042
10.636

0.968
0.053
0.006
0.363
0.026
0.043
10.503

0.765
0.046
0.006
0.278
0.031
0.045
12.004

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.022

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022

0.003
0.014
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.025

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.022

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.021

0.052
0.216
0.022
0.007
0.009

0.047
0.211
0.023
0.007
0.010

0.055
0.228
0.024
0.007
0.011

0.048
0.211
0.022
0.006
0.009

0.049
0.205
0.021
0.006
0.008

0.006
0.072
0.002
0.384
11.011

0.005
0.072
0.002
0.377
10.897

0.003
0.075
0.002
0.404
12.650

0.004
0.072
0.002
0.374
10.583

0.005
0.067
0.002
0.363
11.021

1st

- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) "Other" includes non-biogenic municipal solid waste, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, tires and miscellaneous technologies.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
(d) "Renewables" in commercial sector includes wood, black liquor, other wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass,
geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy and wind.
(e) "Other Renewables" in industrial sector includes black liquor, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal,
photovoltaic energy and wind.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Values of 0.000 may indicate positive levels of generation that are less than 0.0005 billion kilowatthours per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual ,
DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7e. U.S. Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation by Sector


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Residual Fuel Oil (mmb/d) .....
Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb/d) .....
Petroleum Coke (mmst/d) ......
Other Petroleum (mmb/d) ......
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Total All Sectors
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............

2nd

2011

2012

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

2.72
15.48
0.17
0.06
0.04
0.07
0.01

2.51
18.25
0.17
0.07
0.03
0.07
0.00

2.90
26.72
0.20
0.09
0.04
0.07
0.00

2.51
16.78
0.14
0.04
0.04
0.05
0.01

2.60
15.71
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.00

2.50
18.20
0.17
0.07
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.79
26.29
0.20
0.08
0.03
0.08
0.01

2.60
17.04
0.15
0.05
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.80
16.18
0.18
0.06
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.49
18.82
0.15
0.06
0.03
0.06
0.01

2.87
26.58
0.18
0.07
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.61
16.90
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.01

2.66
19.33
0.17
0.07
0.04
0.06
0.00

2.62
19.33
0.17
0.06
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.69
19.63
0.16
0.06
0.03
0.07
0.01

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.11
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.11
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.02
1.48
0.01

0.02
1.44
0.01

0.02
1.57
0.01

0.02
1.44
0.01

0.02
1.46
0.01

0.02
1.49
0.01

0.02
1.74
0.01

0.02
1.63
0.01

0.02
1.70
0.01

0.02
1.63
0.01

0.02
1.79
0.01

0.02
1.67
0.01

0.02
1.48
0.01

0.02
1.58
0.01

0.02
1.70
0.01

2.75
17.05
0.18

2.53
19.79
0.18

2.93
28.40
0.21

2.53
18.32
0.15

2.62
17.26
0.16

2.52
19.78
0.18

2.80
28.12
0.21

2.62
18.76
0.16

2.82
17.97
0.19

2.50
20.54
0.16

2.88
28.48
0.19

2.63
18.67
0.15

2.68
20.91
0.18

2.64
21.01
0.18

2.71
21.42
0.17

End-of-period Fuel Inventories Held by Electric Power Sector


Coal (mmst) ..............................
177.8
181.1
162.8
Residual Fuel Oil (mmb) ............
18.7
17.4
17.4
Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb) ............
17.3
17.2
17.0
Petroleum Coke (mmb) .............
5.8
5.5
6.1

175.2
16.7
17.1
5.4

166.8
15.4
16.6
2.9

177.5
16.6
16.6
3.0

163.9
15.1
16.8
3.0

168.1
15.7
17.0
2.8

162.1
15.7
16.4
2.9

171.7
16.4
16.4
2.9

158.8
14.9
16.5
3.0

163.1
15.2
16.8
2.7

175.2
16.7
17.1
5.4

168.1
15.7
17.0
2.8

163.1
15.2
16.8
2.7

- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Petroleum category may include petroleum coke, which is converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by 5.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Physical Units: mmst/d = million short tons per day; mmb/d = million barrels per day; bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day; mmb = million barrels.
Values of 0.00 may indicate positive levels of fuel consumption that are less than 0.005 units per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Supply and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st
Supply
Hydroelectric Power (a) ...............
Geothermal .................................
Solar .............................................
Wind .............................................
Wood ............................................
Ethanol (b) .....................................
Biodiesel (b) ..................................
Other Renewables .......................
Total ..........................................
Consumption
Electric Power Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Solar ..........................................
Wind ..........................................
Wood .........................................
Other Renewables ....................
Subtotal ..................................
Industrial Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Wood and Wood Waste ...........
Other Renewables ....................
Subtotal ..................................
Commercial Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Wood and Wood Waste ...........
Other Renewables ....................
Subtotal ..................................
Residential Sector
Geothermal ..............................
Biomass .....................................
Solar ..........................................
Subtotal ..................................
Transportation Sector
Ethanol (b) ..................................
Biodiesel (b) ...............................
Total Consumption ........................

2nd

2011
3rd

2012

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

0.618
0.053
0.025
0.208
0.490
0.267
0.013
0.110
1.784

0.713
0.053
0.029
0.261
0.491
0.274
0.011
0.115
1.946

0.593
0.053
0.029
0.200
0.508
0.284
0.009
0.114
1.791

0.585
0.054
0.026
0.263
0.497
0.298
0.007
0.115
1.844

0.798
0.070
0.026
0.291
0.474
0.293
0.015
0.107
2.088

0.873
0.117
0.029
0.326
0.474
0.290
0.023
0.113
2.250

0.696
0.103
0.029
0.252
0.515
0.298
0.026
0.120
2.039

0.558
0.100
0.026
0.270
0.508
0.297
0.027
0.117
1.903

0.658
0.099
0.026
0.309
0.508
0.295
0.026
0.115
2.037

0.760
0.097
0.031
0.382
0.499
0.296
0.026
0.122
2.214

0.609
0.100
0.032
0.324
0.528
0.300
0.027
0.127
2.046

0.583
0.100
0.027
0.355
0.520
0.300
0.028
0.122
2.035

2.509
0.212
0.109
0.933
1.986
1.122
0.040
0.454
7.365

2.925
0.391
0.110
1.139
1.971
1.178
0.090
0.457
8.280

2.610
0.396
0.116
1.371
2.055
1.193
0.107
0.485
8.332

0.618
0.038
0.001
0.208
0.048
0.060
0.975

0.715
0.038
0.005
0.261
0.044
0.064
1.127

0.596
0.038
0.005
0.200
0.049
0.063
0.952

0.587
0.039
0.002
0.263
0.046
0.064
1.001

0.798
0.056
0.002
0.291
0.044
0.060
1.266

0.868
0.102
0.005
0.326
0.039
0.061
1.401

0.693
0.088
0.005
0.252
0.046
0.065
1.151

0.554
0.085
0.002
0.270
0.044
0.063
1.019

0.652
0.085
0.002
0.309
0.045
0.063
1.156

0.755
0.082
0.007
0.382
0.041
0.066
1.333

0.606
0.085
0.008
0.324
0.049
0.070
1.141

0.579
0.085
0.003
0.355
0.046
0.067
1.136

2.516
0.153
0.013
0.933
0.189
0.252
4.055

2.913
0.332
0.014
1.139
0.173
0.250
4.837

2.592
0.337
0.020
1.371
0.181
0.266
4.766

0.005
0.001
0.321
0.041
0.372

0.005
0.001
0.324
0.042
0.376

0.003
0.001
0.335
0.042
0.385

0.003
0.001
0.326
0.042
0.378

0.004
0.001
0.308
0.038
0.356

0.005
0.001
0.314
0.043
0.367

0.003
0.001
0.347
0.046
0.401

0.004
0.001
0.343
0.045
0.397

0.005
0.001
0.340
0.044
0.394

0.005
0.001
0.337
0.047
0.395

0.003
0.001
0.357
0.048
0.413

0.004
0.001
0.352
0.046
0.408

0.016
0.004
1.307
0.168
1.511

0.015
0.004
1.312
0.173
1.521

0.017
0.004
1.386
0.185
1.609

0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.033

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.016
0.009
0.031

0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031

0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.017
0.009
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.032

0.001
0.019
0.070
0.034
0.127

0.001
0.018
0.068
0.033
0.125

0.001
0.018
0.070
0.034
0.128

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.136

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.106
0.024
0.140

0.009
0.106
0.024
0.140

0.009
0.103
0.024
0.136

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.137

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.137

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.137

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.137

0.037
0.420
0.097
0.554

0.036
0.416
0.096
0.549

0.037
0.417
0.096
0.550

0.256
0.012

0.278
0.010

0.288
0.010

0.296
0.008

0.263
0.015

0.284
0.021

0.288
0.024

0.292
0.025

0.283
0.026

0.294
0.026

0.293
0.027

0.297
0.027

1.118
0.040

1.128
0.085

1.167
0.106

1.773

1.949

1.796

1.843

2.062

2.239

2.028

1.897

2.024

2.212

2.039

2.032

7.361

8.226

8.306

- = no data available
(a) Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
(b) Fuel ethanol and biodiesel supply represents domestic production only. Fuel ethanol and biodiesel consumption in the transportation sector includes production, stock change, and imports
less exports. Some biodiesel may be consumed in the residential s
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226 and Renewable Energy Annual , DOE/EIA-0603; Petroleum
Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010

2011

2012
2010

Year
2011

2012

14,139

13,248

13,603

13,990

10,618

10,668

10,241

10,460

10,587

1,970

2,035

2,107

1,695

1,809

2,009

22.89

17.84

13.44

12.28

18.12

29.99

16.61

123.5

123.6

123.6

123.7

123.8

123.5

123.5

123.8

131.6

132.2

132.8

133.4

133.9

134.5

129.8

131.3

133.7

89.2

89.8

90.3

90.9

91.4

91.8

92.2

87.8

89.5

91.6

93.1
91.1
102.9
90.2

94.1
92.3
103.0
91.2

95.4
94.2
103.7
92.1

96.5
95.6
104.3
92.7

97.3
96.5
104.8
93.1

97.8
97.2
105.4
93.6

98.4
98.1
106.1
94.3

98.9
98.8
106.8
94.9

90.1
87.3
102.3
89.0

94.8
93.3
103.5
91.5

98.1
97.6
105.8
94.0

87.1
98.0
69.1
85.2
79.1
92.4
87.5

89.1
97.2
67.8
89.7
78.3
97.5
88.8

90.3
97.9
67.8
92.0
79.3
99.8
89.8

91.2
98.0
68.1
93.3
80.8
101.6
90.8

91.8
98.0
69.1
93.3
81.5
101.8
91.2

92.3
98.1
70.3
93.7
81.9
101.9
91.5

92.9
98.3
72.1
94.4
82.3
101.9
92.1

93.7
98.6
74.3
95.9
83.2
102.1
92.9

94.2
98.8
76.4
97.1
83.9
102.1
93.6

86.7
96.5
67.6
83.3
77.0
94.0
86.5

90.6
97.8
68.2
92.1
80.0
100.2
90.1

93.3
98.4
73.3
95.3
82.8
102.0
92.6

2.18

2.19

2.22

2.25

2.26

2.27

2.28

2.28

2.30

2.31

2.18

2.25

2.29

1.83

1.82

1.90

1.99

2.02

2.03

2.04

2.04

2.03

2.05

2.07

1.85

2.02

2.05

2.17

2.26

2.20

2.38

2.76

3.13

3.06

3.03

3.05

3.09

3.09

3.06

2.25

3.00

3.07

110.0

110.5

111.1

111.2

111.7

112.6

113.1

113.3

113.7

113.9

114.5

115.1

110.7

112.7

114.3

7,663

8,555

8,523

8,127

7,654

8,573

8,553

8,144

7,855

8,639

8,605

8,212

8,219

8,233

8,328

491

530

546

526

510

530

552

543

538

551

570

562

523

534

555

293

330

341

323

302

329

347

337

320

341

357

354

322

329

343

266.4

282.0

282.2

282.2

298.2

308.3

310.7

315.5

311.1

301.6

297.1

299.1

278.2

308.2

302.2

0.234

0.253

0.245

0.237

0.257

0.263

0.272

0.257

0.267

0.281

0.273

0.256

0.242

0.262

0.269

Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) Emissions (million metric tons)


Petroleum ......................................................
569
586
Natural Gas ...................................................
401
263
Coal ...............................................................
501
469
Total Fossil Fuels ..........................................
1,471
1,318

600
283
542
1,425

596
338
473
1,406

575
405
479
1,459

591
270
463
1,325

600
284
519
1,403

598
350
488
1,435

588
405
521
1,514

593
271
465
1,329

602
287
536
1,426

601
350
494
1,445

2,351
1,285
1,985
5,621

2,364
1,308
1,949
5,621

2,385
1,313
2,016
5,714

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .......

13,139

13,195

13,279

13,381

13,439

13,551

13,654

13,771

Real Disposable Personal Income


(billion chained 2005 Dollars - SAAR) .......

10,113

10,252

10,277

10,324

10,399

10,434

10,475

1,631

1,703

1,709

1,737

1,740

1,783

21.04

-3.40

29.63

25.20

34.13

123.5

123.6

123.6

123.5

129.3

130.0

129.9

87.3

87.6

1st

2nd

3rd

13,855

13,934

14,031

10,532

10,487

10,573

1,826

1,888

1,923

27.22

29.56

29.06

123.5

123.5

123.5

130.1

130.5

131.1

87.9

88.2

88.6

89.5
86.9
101.4
89.5

91.0
88.1
103.3
88.8

91.7
89.0
103.9
89.1

85.5

86.3
96.9
68.0
84.1
74.7
93.2
86.2

86.5
98.0
68.8
82.1
78.1
89.5
86.6

2.18

2.17

1.85

4th

Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product

Real Fixed Investment


(billion chained 2005 dollars-SAAR) .........
Business Inventory Change
(billion chained 2005 dollars-SAAR) .........
Housing Stock
(millions) ......................................................
Non-Farm Employment
(millions) .....................................................
Commercial Employment
(millions) .....................................................

Industrial Production Indices (Index, 2007=100)


Total Industrial Production ............................
88.0
Manufacturing ................................................
85.0
Food .............................................................
100.6
Paper ............................................................
88.7
Chemicals .....................................................
86.9
Petroleum ......................................................
92.9
Stone, Clay, Glass .......................................
64.6
Primary Metals ..............................................
81.7
Resins and Synthetic Products .....................
76.0
Agricultural Chemicals ..................................
100.9
Natural Gas-weighted (a) .............................
Price Indexes
Consumer Price Index (all urban consumers)
(index, 1982-1984=1.00) .............................
Producer Price Index: All Commodities
(index, 1982=1.00) ......................................
Producer Price Index: Petroleum
(index, 1982=1.00) ......................................
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
(index, 2005=100) .......................................
Miscellaneous
Vehicle Miles Traveled (b)
(million miles/day) .......................................
Air Travel Capacity
(Available ton-miles/day, thousands) .........
Aircraft Utilization
(Revenue ton-miles/day, thousands) ..........
Airline Ticket Price Index
(index, 1982-1984=100) ..............................
Raw Steel Production
(million short tons per day) .........................

- = no data available
(a) Natural gas share weights of individual sector indices based on EIAManufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2002.
(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration;
and Federal Aviation Administration.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy and Regional Economic Information and simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Real Gross State Product (Billion $2005)
New England ...............
717
720
726
730
Middle Atlantic .............
1,937
1,944
1,952
1,966
E. N. Central ...............
1,820
1,828
1,836
1,845
W. N. Central ..............
861
865
871
877
S. Atlantic ....................
2,401
2,410
2,426
2,444
E. S. Central ................
616
617
620
625
W. S. Central ..............
1,509
1,520
1,534
1,550
Mountain .....................
875
878
885
892
Pacific .........................
2,344
2,353
2,368
2,389
Industrial Output, Manufacturing (Index, Year 2007=100)
New England ...............
87.2
89.1
90.4
91.5
Middle Atlantic .............
85.3
87.0
88.1
89.1
E. N. Central ...............
81.4
83.9
85.2
85.7
W. N. Central ..............
87.7
90.0
91.5
92.3
S. Atlantic ....................
82.2
83.6
84.5
84.9
E. S. Central ................
82.1
84.0
85.1
85.6
W. S. Central ..............
88.2
90.7
92.6
93.8
Mountain .....................
83.9
85.8
87.0
88.2
Pacific .........................
86.8
88.0
88.7
89.8
Real Personal Income (Billion $2005)
New England ...............
630
643
644
647
Middle Atlantic .............
1,697
1,726
1,727
1,737
E. N. Central ...............
1,571
1,594
1,603
1,609
W. N. Central ..............
720
727
733
739
S. Atlantic ....................
2,092
2,118
2,128
2,138
E. S. Central ................
552
561
564
567
W. S. Central ..............
1,238
1,256
1,266
1,277
Mountain .....................
722
730
733
737
Pacific .........................
1,905
1,924
1,930
1,943
Households (Thousands)
New England ...............
5,498
5,498
5,498
5,498
Middle Atlantic .............
15,217
15,210
15,224
15,231
E. N. Central ...............
17,732
17,725
17,710
17,697
W. N. Central ..............
8,065
8,068
8,077
8,085
S. Atlantic ....................
22,256
22,294
22,315
22,342
E. S. Central ................
7,100
7,107
7,113
7,117
W. S. Central ..............
12,841
12,871
12,896
12,921
Mountain .....................
7,926
7,942
7,961
7,980
Pacific .........................
16,950
16,969
16,997
17,033
Total Non-farm Employment (Millions)
New England ...............
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.8
Middle Atlantic .............
17.9
18.0
17.9
17.9
E. N. Central ...............
19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
W. N. Central ..............
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.8
S. Atlantic ....................
24.6
24.8
24.8
24.8
E. S. Central ................
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
W. S. Central ..............
14.8
14.9
14.9
15.0
Mountain .....................
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
Pacific .........................
19.1
19.2
19.1
19.2

2011

2012
2010

Year
2011

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

733
1,974
1,852
880
2,455
627
1,560
896
2,401

738
1,990
1,864
887
2,477
632
1,575
904
2,421

744
2,004
1,876
893
2,498
637
1,589
911
2,440

749
2,021
1,892
900
2,520
642
1,604
918
2,461

753
2,032
1,904
905
2,537
647
1,617
925
2,474

756
2,042
1,914
910
2,553
651
1,629
930
2,487

761
2,054
1,925
916
2,572
655
1,642
937
2,505

765
2,069
1,936
922
2,594
661
1,656
945
2,527

723
1,950
1,832
868
2,420
620
1,528
882
2,363

741
1,998
1,871
890
2,487
635
1,582
907
2,431

759
2,049
1,920
913
2,564
653
1,636
934
2,498

93.5
91.1
87.8
94.6
86.7
87.7
96.0
90.6
92.0

94.5
92.2
88.9
95.9
87.8
89.0
97.4
91.8
93.4

96.2
93.9
90.5
97.6
89.4
91.0
99.4
93.7
95.4

97.6
95.1
91.7
98.9
90.6
92.7
101.1
95.3
97.1

98.3
95.8
92.6
99.9
91.4
93.9
102.2
96.2
98.0

98.5
96.3
93.4
100.7
92.0
95.0
103.1
96.8
98.5

99.1
97.0
94.4
101.7
92.9
96.3
104.1
97.6
99.2

99.5
97.7
95.2
102.7
93.6
97.4
105.0
98.3
99.8

89.5
87.4
84.0
90.4
83.8
84.2
91.3
86.2
88.3

95.5
93.1
89.7
96.7
88.6
90.1
98.5
92.9
94.5

98.8
96.7
93.9
101.3
92.5
95.6
103.6
97.2
98.9

652
1,753
1,625
749
2,161
573
1,293
745
1,964

654
1,759
1,628
752
2,170
575
1,300
748
1,972

657
1,770
1,633
756
2,184
578
1,310
753
1,984

661
1,784
1,639
758
2,200
581
1,320
759
1,998

660
1,782
1,634
757
2,202
580
1,321
759
1,997

665
1,799
1,647
763
2,222
586
1,334
767
2,014

669
1,811
1,656
767
2,236
590
1,345
773
2,027

672
1,823
1,665
771
2,252
594
1,355
779
2,042

641
1,722
1,594
730
2,119
561
1,260
731
1,925

656
1,767
1,631
754
2,179
577
1,306
751
1,980

667
1,804
1,650
764
2,228
587
1,339
769
2,020

5,497
15,240
17,687
8,094
22,374
7,123
12,950
7,998
17,056

5,494
15,243
17,675
8,101
22,407
7,126
12,978
8,016
17,078

5,497
15,257
17,680
8,115
22,456
7,136
13,021
8,041
17,113

5,502
15,273
17,688
8,134
22,515
7,153
13,071
8,071
17,158

5,510
15,290
17,713
8,156
22,587
7,172
13,130
8,110
17,215

5,521
15,313
17,748
8,182
22,675
7,194
13,192
8,151
17,280

5,532
15,336
17,784
8,208
22,771
7,219
13,255
8,193
17,346

5,545
15,360
17,824
8,233
22,873
7,244
13,322
8,237
17,410

5,498
15,231
17,697
8,085
22,342
7,117
12,921
7,980
17,033

5,502
15,273
17,688
8,134
22,515
7,153
13,071
8,071
17,158

5,545
15,360
17,824
8,233
22,873
7,244
13,322
8,237
17,410

6.8
18.0
20.0
9.9
24.8
7.4
15.1
9.1
19.3

6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
24.9
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.3

6.8
18.2
20.1
10.0
25.1
7.4
15.3
9.2
19.4

6.8
18.2
20.2
10.0
25.2
7.5
15.3
9.2
19.5

6.9
18.3
20.3
10.0
25.3
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.6

6.9
18.4
20.4
10.1
25.4
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.7

6.9
18.4
20.5
10.1
25.5
7.6
15.6
9.3
19.8

6.9
18.5
20.5
10.2
25.7
7.6
15.7
9.4
19.9

6.7
17.9
20.0
9.8
24.7
7.3
14.9
9.0
19.2

6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.4

6.9
18.4
20.4
10.1
25.5
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.7

- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.

2012

Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010
1st

2nd

Heating Degree-days
New England ................
2,948
634
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,805
477
E. N. Central .................
3,217
523
W. N. Central ................
3,475
536
South Atlantic ...............
1,804
144
E. S. Central .................
2,297
169
W. S. Central ................
1,608
79
Mountain .......................
2,313
780
Pacific ...........................
1,312
678
U.S. Average ............
2,311
422
Heating Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
3,219
930
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,968
752
E. N. Central .................
3,227
798
W. N. Central ................
3,326
729
South Atlantic ...............
1,523
247
E. S. Central .................
1,895
299
W. S. Central ................
1,270
112
Mountain .......................
2,321
741
Pacific ...........................
1,419
556
U.S. Average ............
2,242
543
Cooling Degree-days
New England ................
0
129
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
261
E. N. Central .................
0
282
W. N. Central ................
1
320
South Atlantic ...............
34
772
E. S. Central .................
8
679
W. S. Central ................
27
950
Mountain .......................
11
370
Pacific ...........................
7
120
U.S. Average ............
12
445
Cooling Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
0
81
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
151
E. N. Central .................
1
208
W. N. Central ................
3
270
South Atlantic ...............
113
576
E. S. Central .................
29
469
W. S. Central ................
80
790
Mountain .......................
17
383
Pacific ...........................
10
171
U.S. Average ............
34
353

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

Year

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

2011

2012

135
61
134
153
6
19
6
84
71
68

2,265
2,085
2,353
2,434
1,243
1,487
832
1,768
1,122
1,659

3,314
3,023
3,306
3,517
1,501
1,866
1,273
2,338
1,481
2,285

846
636
769
769
189
255
102
754
613
515

182
124
158
185
25
33
9
175
108
100

2,254
2,053
2,313
2,510
1,057
1,375
885
1,939
1,144
1,632

3,226
2,964
3,220
3,356
1,532
1,908
1,270
2,336
1,434
2,249

923
740
783
727
244
295
110
732
556
537

192
127
158
183
24
32
7
176
103
100

2,252
2,045
2,299
2,495
1,040
1,359
878
1,940
1,118
1,618

5,982
5,428
6,228
6,598
3,197
3,973
2,525
4,945
3,183
4,460

6,596
5,836
6,546
6,981
2,772
3,529
2,269
5,206
3,346
4,532

6,593
5,875
6,460
6,762
2,839
3,594
2,265
5,184
3,211
4,504

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242

930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242

930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

549
714
693
769
1,310
1,280
1,586
924
548
937

5
1
4
3
162
37
198
72
55
73

0
0
0
1
99
9
113
11
2
33

73
146
190
257
679
536
922
370
121
377

354
516
492
640
1,084
997
1,430
851
508
771

0
5
8
12
210
63
177
68
41
77

0
0
1
3
114
31
82
15
7
35

69
141
199
263
571
462
784
374
150
344

354
512
511
659
1,091
1,012
1,432
842
517
778

1
5
8
15
223
66
190
78
55
83

683
976
980
1,093
2,278
2,005
2,761
1,377
730
1,467

427
666
690
910
2,072
1,605
2,642
1,300
672
1,258

424
658
719
940
1,999
1,570
2,488
1,309
729
1,240

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34

81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34

81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

- = no data available
(a) 30-year normal represents average over 1971 - 2000, reported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

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