Part-C Population interaction Case Scenarios

Group No. 13
Total Population 1000
Initial Sick People 10 people
Duration of illness 0.5 month
Population interation 23 people
Probability of catching illness 0.5
Time Step (dt) 0.06 month
Final Time (Model run Duration) 6 months

Predicted Model Data Summary

Initial Healthy Healthy People
Sr. No Time Duration Sick People (t)
People (t)
1 0.00 990 990 10
2 0.06 984 984 16
3 0.12 976 976 24
4 0.18 962 962 38
5 0.24 942 942 58
6 0.30 911 911 89
7 0.36 865 865 135
8 0.42 801 801 199
9 0.48 715 715 285
10 0.54 608 608 392
11 0.60 491 491 509
12 0.66 379 379 621
13 0.72 291 291 709
14 0.78 234 234 766
15 0.84 202 202 798
16 0.90 187 187 813
17 0.96 180 180 820
18 1.02 176 176 824
19 1.08 175 175 825
20 1.14 174 174 826
21 1.20 174 174 826
22 1.26 174 174 826
23 1.32 174 174 826
24 1.38 174 174 826
25 1.44 174 174 826
26 1.50 174 174 826
27 1.56 174 174 826
28 1.62 174 174 826
29 1.68 174 174 826
30 1.74 174 174 826
31 1.80 174 174 826
32 1.86 174 174 826
33 1.92 174 174 826
34 1.98 174 174 826
35 2.04 174 174 826
36 2.10 174 174 826
37 2.16 174 174 826
38 2.22 174 174 826
39 2.28 174 174 826
40 2.34 174 174 826
41 2.40 174 174 826
42 2.46 174 174 826
43 2.52 174 174 826
44 2.58 174 174 826
45 2.64 174 174 826
46 2.70 174 174 826
47 2.76 174 174 826
48 2.82 174 174 826
49 2.88 174 174 826
50 2.94 174 174 826
51 3.00 174 174 826
52 3.06 174 174 826
53 3.12 174 174 826
54 3.18 174 174 826
55 3.24 174 174 826
56 3.30 174 174 826
57 3.36 174 174 826
58 3.42 174 174 826
59 3.48 174 174 826
60 3.54 174 174 826
61 3.60 174 174 826
62 3.66 174 174 826
63 3.72 174 174 826
64 3.78 174 174 826
65 3.84 174 174 826
66 3.90 174 174 826
67 3.96 174 174 826
68 4.02 174 174 826
69 4.08 174 174 826
70 4.14 174 174 826
71 4.20 174 174 826
72 4.26 174 174 826
73 4.32 174 174 826
74 4.38 174 174 826
75 4.44 174 174 826
76 4.50 174 174 826
77 4.56 174 174 826
78 4.62 174 174 826
79 4.68 174 174 826
80 4.74 174 174 826
 81 4.80 174 174 826
82 4.86 174 174 826
83 4.92 174 174 826
84 4.98 174 174 826
85 5.04 174 174 826
86 5.10 174 174 826
87 5.16 174 174 826
88 5.22 174 174 826
89 5.28 174 174 826
90 5.34 174 174 826
91 5.40 174 174 826
92 5.46 174 174 826
93 5.52 174 174 826
94 5.58 174 174 826
95 5.64 174 174 826
96 5.70 174 174 826
97 5.76 174 174 826
98 5.82 174 174 826
99 5.88 174 174 826
100 5.94 174 174 826
101 6.00 174 174 826
Population interactions Scenario-1 23 Healthy Vs. Sick People in
1200
Population interactions Scenario-2 29
Healthy People (t)
Population interactions Scenario-3 45
Sick People (t)
Population interactions Scenario-4 61
1000

Population (Healthy /Sick)

800

Probablity of Contact with Sick People Catching 600

Recovery rate
People illness
0.01000 20.00 114
0.01563 31.26 177 400
0.02437 48.74 273
0.03785 75.71 419
0.05844 116.89 633 200
0.08940 178.80 936
0.13484 269.68 1342
0.19915 398.31 1834 0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.
0.28530 570.61 2345
0.39176 783.53 2740
0.50917 1018.34 2874
0.62051 1241.02 2708
0.70853 1417.06 2375 Healthy Vs. Sick People ine
0.76600 1532.00 2061 3500
0.79776 1595.52 1855
0.81335 1626.70 1746
0.82050 1641.00 1694 3000
0.82366 1647.33 1670
0.82504 1650.08 1660
0.82564 1651.27 1656 2500
0.82589 1651.79 1654
Population (Healthy /Sick)

0.82600 1652.01 1653

2000
0.82605 1652.10 1652
0.82607 1652.14 1652
0.82608 1652.16 1652
1500
0.82608 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
1000
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652 500
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.5
 500

0.82609 1652.17 1652 0

0.82609 1652.17 1652 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.5

0.82609 1652.17 1652

0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
0.82609 1652.17 1652
thy Vs. Sick People inetrations During an Epidemic Outbreak
People (t)
ple (t)

1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50

Time Duration (Months)

hy Vs. Sick People inetrations During an Epidemic Outbreak

Healthy People (t)

Sick People (t)
Recovery rate
People Catching
illness

1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50

Time Duration (Months)

 Healthy People (t)
Sick People (t)
Recovery rate
People Catching
illness

1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50

Time Duration (Months)

Part-C Duration of ilness Case Scenarios
Group No. 13
Total Population 1000
Initial Sick People 10 people
Duration of illness 0.63 month
Population interation 10 people
Probability of catching illness 0.5
Time Step (dt) 0.06 month
Final Time (Model run Duration) 6 months

Predicted Model Data Summary

Initial Healthy Healthy People
Sr. No Time Duration Sick People (t)
People (t)
1 0.00 990 990 10
2 0.06 988 988 12
3 0.12 986 986 14
4 0.18 983 983 17
5 0.24 979 979 21
6 0.30 975 975 25
7 0.36 970 970 30
8 0.42 964 964 36
9 0.48 957 957 43
10 0.54 949 949 51
11 0.60 940 940 60
12 0.66 928 928 72
13 0.72 915 915 85
14 0.78 900 900 100
15 0.84 883 883 117
16 0.90 863 863 137
17 0.96 840 840 160
18 1.02 815 815 185
19 1.08 787 787 213
20 1.14 758 758 242
21 1.20 725 725 275
22 1.26 692 692 308
23 1.32 657 657 343
24 1.38 622 622 378
25 1.44 588 588 412
26 1.50 554 554 446
27 1.56 523 523 477
28 1.62 493 493 507
29 1.68 467 467 533
30 1.74 443 443 557
31 1.80 422 422 578
32 1.86 404 404 596
33 1.92 388 388 612
34 1.98 375 375 625
35 2.04 364 364 636
36 2.10 355 355 645
37 2.16 348 348 652
38 2.22 342 342 658
39 2.28 337 337 663
40 2.34 333 333 667
41 2.40 330 330 670
42 2.46 328 328 672
43 2.52 326 326 674
44 2.58 324 324 676
45 2.64 323 323 677
46 2.70 322 322 678
47 2.76 321 321 679
48 2.82 320 320 680
49 2.88 320 320 680
50 2.94 319 319 681
51 3.00 319 319 681
52 3.06 319 319 681
53 3.12 318 318 682
54 3.18 318 318 682
55 3.24 318 318 682
56 3.30 318 318 682
57 3.36 318 318 682
58 3.42 318 318 682
59 3.48 318 318 682
60 3.54 318 318 682
61 3.60 318 318 682
62 3.66 318 318 682
63 3.72 318 318 682
64 3.78 318 318 682
65 3.84 318 318 682
66 3.90 318 318 682
67 3.96 317 317 683
68 4.02 317 317 683
69 4.08 317 317 683
70 4.14 317 317 683
71 4.20 317 317 683
72 4.26 317 317 683
73 4.32 317 317 683
74 4.38 317 317 683
75 4.44 317 317 683
76 4.50 317 317 683
77 4.56 317 317 683
78 4.62 317 317 683
79 4.68 317 317 683
80 4.74 317 317 683
 81 4.80 317 317 683
82 4.86 317 317 683
83 4.92 317 317 683
84 4.98 317 317 683
85 5.04 317 317 683
86 5.10 317 317 683
87 5.16 317 317 683
88 5.22 317 317 683
89 5.28 317 317 683
90 5.34 317 317 683
91 5.40 317 317 683
92 5.46 317 317 683
93 5.52 317 317 683
94 5.58 317 317 683
95 5.64 317 317 683
96 5.70 317 317 683
97 5.76 317 317 683
98 5.82 317 317 683
99 5.88 317 317 683
100 5.94 317 317 683
101 6.00 317 317 683
Duration of illness Scenario-1 0.23 Healthy Vs. Sick People inetra
1200
Duration of illness Scenario-2 0.63
Duration of illness Scenario-3 1.13
Duration of illness Scenario-4 4.13
1000

Population (Healthy /Sick)

800

Probablity of Contact with Sick People Catching 600

Recovery rate
People illness
0.01000 15.87 50
0.01202 19.08 59 400
0.01444 22.91 71
0.01733 27.51 85
0.02079 32.99 102 200
0.02491 39.54 121
0.02983 47.35 145
0.03567 56.62 172 0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
0.04259 67.60 204
Time
0.05077 80.58 241
0.06039 95.86 284
0.07166 113.75 333
0.08479 134.59 388 Healthy Vs. Sick People inetrati
0.10000 158.73 450 1400
0.11748 186.47 518
0.13739 218.08 593
0.15986 253.74 672 1200
0.18493 293.53 754
0.21253 337.35 837
0.24250 384.92 918 1000
0.27451 435.73 996
Population (Healthy /Sick)

0.30812 489.07 1066

800
0.34272 544.01 1126
0.37766 599.47 1175
0.41221 654.30 1211
600
0.44564 707.36 1235
0.47731 757.63 1247
0.50670 804.28 1250
400
0.53343 846.71 1244
0.55729 884.58 1234
0.57823 917.82 1219 200
0.59632 946.54 1204
0.61175 971.03 1188
0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

Time D
 200

0.62474 991.65 1172 0

0.63557 1008.84 1158 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

0.64453 1023.06 1146 Time D

0.65188 1034.73 1135
0.65787 1044.24 1125
0.66274 1051.97 1118
0.66668 1058.22 1111
0.66985 1063.25 1106
0.67240 1067.30 1101
0.67445 1070.55 1098
0.67608 1073.15 1095
0.67739 1075.23 1093
0.67844 1076.89 1091
0.67927 1078.21 1089
0.67994 1079.27 1088
0.68047 1080.11 1087
0.68089 1080.78 1086
0.68123 1081.32 1086
0.68150 1081.74 1085
0.68171 1082.08 1085
0.68188 1082.35 1085
0.68201 1082.56 1084
0.68212 1082.73 1084
0.68221 1082.87 1084
0.68228 1082.98 1084
0.68233 1083.06 1084
0.68237 1083.13 1084
0.68241 1083.19 1084
0.68243 1083.23 1084
0.68246 1083.26 1084
0.68247 1083.29 1084
0.68249 1083.31 1083
0.68250 1083.33 1083
0.68251 1083.34 1083
0.68251 1083.35 1083
0.68252 1083.36 1083
0.68252 1083.37 1083
0.68253 1083.37 1083
0.68253 1083.38 1083
0.68253 1083.38 1083
0.68253 1083.39 1083
0.68253 1083.39 1083
0.68254 1083.39 1083
0.68254 1083.39 1083
0.68254 1083.39 1083
0.68254 1083.39 1083
0.68254 1083.39 1083
0.68254 1083.39 1083
0.68254 1083.39 1083
0.68254 1083.39 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
0.68254 1083.40 1083
thy Vs. Sick People inetrations During an Epidemic Outbreak

Healthy People (t)

Sick People (t)

1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50

Time Duration (Months)

hy Vs. Sick People inetrations During an Epidemic Outbreak

Healthy People (t)

Sick People (t)
Recovery rate
People Catching
illness

1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50

Time Duration (Months)

 Healthy People (t)
Sick People (t)
Recovery rate
People Catching
illness

1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50

Time Duration (Months)

Part-C Initial Sick People Case Scenarios
Group No. 13
Total Population 1000 Sick People Scenario-1
Initial Sick People 193 people Sick People Scenario-2
Duration of illness 0.5 month Sick People Scenario-3
Population interation 10 people Sick People Scenario-4
Probability of catching illness 0.5
Time Step (dt) 0.06 month
Final Time (Model run Duration) 6 months

Predicted Model Data Summary

Initial Healthy Healthy People Probablity of Contact
Sr. No Time Duration Sick People (t)
People (t) with Sick People
1 0.00 807 807 193 0.19300

2 0.06 783 783 217 0.21657

3 0.12 759 759 241 0.24148
4 0.18 733 733 267 0.26745
5 0.24 706 706 294 0.29413
6 0.30 679 679 321 0.32112
7 0.36 652 652 348 0.34799
8 0.42 626 626 374 0.37430
9 0.48 600 600 400 0.39964
10 0.54 576 576 424 0.42366
11 0.60 554 554 446 0.44607
12 0.66 533 533 467 0.46667
13 0.72 515 515 485 0.48534
14 0.78 498 498 502 0.50203
15 0.84 483 483 517 0.51679
16 0.90 470 470 530 0.52969
17 0.96 459 459 541 0.54086
18 1.02 450 450 550 0.55046
19 1.08 441 441 559 0.55864
20 1.14 434 434 566 0.56557
21 1.20 429 429 571 0.57141
22 1.26 424 424 576 0.57631
23 1.32 420 420 580 0.58041
24 1.38 416 416 584 0.58382
25 1.44 413 413 587 0.58665
26 1.50 411 411 589 0.58900
27 1.56 409 409 591 0.59095
28 1.62 407 407 593 0.59255
29 1.68 406 406 594 0.59388
30 1.74 405 405 595 0.59497
31 1.80 404 404 596 0.59586
32 1.86 403 403 597 0.59660
33 1.92 403 403 597 0.59721
34 1.98 402 402 598 0.59771
35 2.04 402 402 598 0.59812
36 2.10 402 402 598 0.59846
37 2.16 401 401 599 0.59874
38 2.22 401 401 599 0.59896
39 2.28 401 401 599 0.59915
40 2.34 401 401 599 0.59930
41 2.40 401 401 599 0.59943
42 2.46 400 400 600 0.59953
43 2.52 400 400 600 0.59961
44 2.58 400 400 600 0.59968
45 2.64 400 400 600 0.59974
46 2.70 400 400 600 0.59979
47 2.76 400 400 600 0.59983
48 2.82 400 400 600 0.59986
49 2.88 400 400 600 0.59988
50 2.94 400 400 600 0.59990
51 3.00 400 400 600 0.59992
52 3.06 400 400 600 0.59994
53 3.12 400 400 600 0.59995
54 3.18 400 400 600 0.59996
55 3.24 400 400 600 0.59996
56 3.30 400 400 600 0.59997
57 3.36 400 400 600 0.59998
58 3.42 400 400 600 0.59998
59 3.48 400 400 600 0.59998
60 3.54 400 400 600 0.59999
61 3.60 400 400 600 0.59999
62 3.66 400 400 600 0.59999
63 3.72 400 400 600 0.59999
64 3.78 400 400 600 0.59999
65 3.84 400 400 600 0.60000
66 3.90 400 400 600 0.60000
67 3.96 400 400 600 0.60000
68 4.02 400 400 600 0.60000
69 4.08 400 400 600 0.60000
70 4.14 400 400 600 0.60000
71 4.20 400 400 600 0.60000
72 4.26 400 400 600 0.60000
73 4.32 400 400 600 0.60000
74 4.38 400 400 600 0.60000
75 4.44 400 400 600 0.60000
76 4.50 400 400 600 0.60000
77 4.56 400 400 600 0.60000
78 4.62 400 400 600 0.60000
79 4.68 400 400 600 0.60000
 80 4.74 400 400 600 0.60000
81 4.80 400 400 600 0.60000
82 4.86 400 400 600 0.60000
83 4.92 400 400 600 0.60000
84 4.98 400 400 600 0.60000
85 5.04 400 400 600 0.60000
86 5.10 400 400 600 0.60000
87 5.16 400 400 600 0.60000
88 5.22 400 400 600 0.60000
89 5.28 400 400 600 0.60000
90 5.34 400 400 600 0.60000
91 5.40 400 400 600 0.60000
92 5.46 400 400 600 0.60000
93 5.52 400 400 600 0.60000
94 5.58 400 400 600 0.60000
95 5.64 400 400 600 0.60000
96 5.70 400 400 600 0.60000
97 5.76 400 400 600 0.60000
98 5.82 400 400 600 0.60000
99 5.88 400 400 600 0.60000
100 5.94 400 400 600 0.60000
101 6.00 400 400 600 0.60000
 23 Healthy Vs. Sick People inetrations During an Epidemic
73 900

133
193 800

700

600
Population (Healthy /Sick)

500
People Catching
Recovery rate
illness
386.00 779 400

433.13 848 300

482.95 916
534.90 980 200

588.26 1038
642.24 1090 100

695.97 1134
748.59 1171 0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.5
799.28 1200
Time Duration (Months)
847.32 1221
892.15 1235
933.35 1244
970.68 1249 Healthy Vs. Sick People inetrations During an Epidemic
1004.07 1250 1400
1033.58 1249
1059.38 1246
1081.72 1242 1200
1100.92 1237
1117.28 1233
1131.14 1229 1000
1142.82 1225
Population (Healthy /Sick)

1152.63 1221
800
1160.82 1218
1167.64 1215
1173.31 1212
600
1178.01 1210
1181.89 1209
1185.10 1207
400
1187.75 1206
1189.93 1205
1191.73 1204 200
1193.21 1203

0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50

Time Duration (Months)

 200

1194.42 1203
1195.42 1202 0
1196.24 1202 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50

1196.92 1202 Time Duration (Months)

1197.47 1201
1197.93 1201
1198.30 1201
1198.60 1201
1198.85 1201
1199.06 1200
1199.23 1200
1199.37 1200
1199.48 1200
1199.58 1200
1199.65 1200
1199.71 1200
1199.77 1200
1199.81 1200
1199.84 1200
1199.87 1200
1199.89 1200
1199.91 1200
1199.93 1200
1199.94 1200
1199.95 1200
1199.96 1200
1199.97 1200
1199.97 1200
1199.98 1200
1199.98 1200
1199.99 1200
1199.99 1200
1199.99 1200
1199.99 1200
1199.99 1200
1199.99 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
tions During an Epidemic Outbreak

Sick People Scenario-1 (SPS_1)

23
Time Duration Healthy People (t)
(SPS_1)
0.00 977.00
0.06 973.02
0.12 968.38
Healthy People (t)
0.18 962.99
Sick People (t)
0.24 Healthy Vs. Sick People inet
956.74
900
0.30 949.51
3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50
0.36 941.19
Duration (Months) 800
0.42 931.64
0.48 920.74
700
0.54 908.36
ons During an Epidemic Outbreak 0.60 894.38
600
Population (Healthy /Sick)

0.66 878.71
0.72 861.30
500
0.78 842.10
0.84 821.16
400
0.90 798.56
0.96 774.48
300
1.02 749.14
1.08 722.86
200
1.14 696.02
1.20 669.03
100
1.26 642.31
1.32 616.31
0
1.380.00 0.50 591.41
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
1.44 567.95
1.50 546.18
1.56 526.28
Healthy People (t) 1.62 508.33
Sick People (t) 1.68 492.35
Recovery rate 1.74 478.29
People Catching
illness

3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50

uration (Months)
 Healthy People (t)
Sick People (t)
Recovery rate
People Catching 1.80 466.04
illness
1.86 455.46
3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 1.92 446.40
uration (Months) 1.98 438.69
2.04 432.18
2.10 426.70
2.16 422.10
2.22 418.27
2.28 415.08
2.34 412.44
2.40 410.24
2.46 408.43
2.52 406.94
2.58 405.70
2.64 404.68
2.70 403.85
2.76 403.16
2.82 402.59
2.88 402.13
2.94 401.75
3.00 401.43
3.06 401.18
3.12 400.96
3.18 400.79
3.24 400.65
3.30 400.53
3.36 400.44
3.42 400.36
3.48 400.29
3.54 400.24
3.60 400.20
3.66 400.16
3.72 400.13
3.78 400.11
3.84 400.09
3.90 400.07
3.96 400.06
4.02 400.05
4.08 400.04
4.14 400.03
4.20 400.03
4.26 400.02
4.32 400.02
4.38 400.01
4.44 400.01
4.50 400.01
4.56 400.01
4.62 400.01
4.68 400.01
4.74 400.00
4.80 400.00
4.86 400.00
4.92 400.00
4.98 400.00
5.04 400.00
5.10 400.00
5.16 400.00
5.22 400.00
5.28 400.00
5.34 400.00
5.40 400.00
5.46 400.00
5.52 400.00
5.58 400.00
5.64 400.00
5.70 400.00
5.76 400.00
5.82 400.00
5.88 400.00
5.94 400.00
6.00 400.00
eople Scenario-1 (SPS_1) Sick People Scenario-2 (SPS_2) Sick People Scenario-3 (SPS_3)
23 73 133
Sick People (t) Healthy People (t) Sick People (t) Healthy People (t) Sick People (t)
(SPS_1) (SPS_2) (SPS_2) (SPS_3) (SPS_3)
23.00 927.00 73.00 867.00 133.00
26.98 915.46 84.54 848.37 151.63
31.62 902.39 97.61 827.97 172.03
37.01 887.67 112.33 805.88 194.12
ealthy Vs. Sick People
43.26 inetrations871.24 During an Epidemic Outbreak
128.76 782.25 217.75
50.49 853.04 146.96 757.28 242.72
58.81 833.06 166.94 731.26 268.74
68.36 811.37 188.63 704.55 295.45
79.26 788.10 211.90 677.56 322.44
91.64 763.42 236.58 650.71 349.29
105.62 737.63 262.37 624.44 375.56
121.29 711.06 288.94 599.15 400.85
138.70 684.09 315.91 575.20 424.80
157.90 657.17 342.83 552.88 447.12
178.84 630.72 369.28 532.37 467.63
201.44 605.16 394.84 513.80 486.20
225.52 580.86 419.14 497.20 502.80
250.86 558.12 441.88 482.54 517.46
277.14 537.15 462.85 469.73 530.27
303.98 518.11 481.89 458.63 541.37
330.97 501.04 498.96 449.11 550.89
Healthy People (t)
357.69 485.91 514.09 440.99
Sick People (t)
559.01
383.69 472.66 527.34 434.12 565.88
1.00 1.50 408.59
2.00 2.50 3.00 461.17
3.50 4.00 538.83
4.50 5.00 5.50428.33 6.00 6.50 571.67
432.05 451.28 548.72 423.47 576.53
Time Duration (Months)
453.82 442.84 557.16 419.41 580.59
473.72 435.68 564.32 416.03 583.97
491.67 429.64 570.36 413.22 586.78
507.65 424.57 575.43 410.89 589.11
521.71 420.33 579.67 408.97 591.03
533.96 416.79 583.21 407.38 592.62
544.54 413.85 586.15 406.07 593.93
553.60 411.42 588.58 404.99 595.01
561.31 409.40 590.60 404.10 595.90
567.82 407.74 592.26 403.36 596.64
573.30 406.36 593.64 402.76 597.24
577.90 405.23 594.77 402.27 597.73
581.73 404.30 595.70 401.86 598.14
584.92 403.53 596.47 401.53 598.47
587.56 402.90 597.10 401.25 598.75
589.76 402.38 597.62 401.03 598.97
591.57 401.95 598.05 400.84 599.16
593.06 401.60 598.40 400.69 599.31
594.30 401.31 598.69 400.57 599.43
595.32 401.08 598.92 400.47 599.53
596.15 400.88 599.12 400.38 599.62
596.84 400.73 599.27 400.31 599.69
597.41 400.59 599.41 400.26 599.74
597.87 400.49 599.51 400.21 599.79
598.25 400.40 599.60 400.17 599.83
598.57 400.33 599.67 400.14 599.86
598.82 400.27 599.73 400.12 599.88
599.04 400.22 599.78 400.10 599.90
599.21 400.18 599.82 400.08 599.92
599.35 400.15 599.85 400.06 599.94
599.47 400.12 599.88 400.05 599.95
599.56 400.10 599.90 400.04 599.96
599.64 400.08 599.92 400.04 599.96
599.71 400.07 599.93 400.03 599.97
599.76 400.06 599.94 400.02 599.98
599.80 400.05 599.95 400.02 599.98
599.84 400.04 599.96 400.02 599.98
599.87 400.03 599.97 400.01 599.99
599.89 400.02 599.98 400.01 599.99
599.91 400.02 599.98 400.01 599.99
599.93 400.02 599.98 400.01 599.99
599.94 400.01 599.99 400.01 599.99
599.95 400.01 599.99 400.00 600.00
599.96 400.01 599.99 400.00 600.00
599.97 400.01 599.99 400.00 600.00
599.97 400.01 599.99 400.00 600.00
599.98 400.01 599.99 400.00 600.00
599.98 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
599.99 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
599.99 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
599.99 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
599.99 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
599.99 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
599.99 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
600.00 400.00 600.00 400.00 600.00
 Sick People Scenario-4 (SPS_4)

193
Healthy People (t) Sick People (t)
(SPS_4) (SPS_4)
807.00 193.00
783.43 216.57
758.52 241.48
732.55 267.45
705.87 294.13
678.88 321.12
652.01 347.99
625.70 374.30
600.36 399.64
576.34 423.66
553.93 446.07
533.33 466.67
514.66 485.34
497.97 502.03
483.21 516.79
470.31 529.69
459.14 540.86
449.54 550.46
441.36 558.64
434.43 565.57
428.59 571.41
423.69 576.31
419.59 580.41
416.18 583.82
413.35 586.65
411.00 589.00
409.05 590.95
407.45 592.55
406.12 593.88
405.03 594.97
404.14 595.86
403.40 596.60
402.79 597.21
402.29 597.71
401.88 598.12
401.54 598.46
401.26 598.74
401.04 598.96
400.85 599.15
400.70 599.30
400.57 599.43
400.47 599.53
400.39 599.61
400.32 599.68
400.26 599.74
400.21 599.79
400.17 599.83
400.14 599.86
400.12 599.88
400.10 599.90
400.08 599.92
400.06 599.94
400.05 599.95
400.04 599.96
400.04 599.96
400.03 599.97
400.02 599.98
400.02 599.98
400.02 599.98
400.01 599.99
400.01 599.99
400.01 599.99
400.01 599.99
400.01 599.99
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
400.00 600.00
 Base Line data for the Model
Total Population 1000
Initial Sick People 10 people
Duration of illness 0.5 month
Population interation 10 people
Probability of catching illness 0.5
Time Step (dt) 0.06 month
Final Time (Model run Duration) 6 months

Predicted Model Data Summary

Initial Healthy Healthy People Probablity of Contact
Sr. No Time Duration Sick People (t)
People (t) with Sick People
1 0.00 990 990 10 0.01000
2 0.06 988 988 12 0.01177
3 0.12 986 986 14 0.01385
4 0.18 984 984 16 0.01628
5 0.24 981 981 19 0.01913
6 0.30 978 978 22 0.02247
7 0.36 974 974 26 0.02636
8 0.42 969 Healthy969
Vs. Sick People inetrations
31 During an Epidemic
0.03090
9 1200 0.48 964 964 36 0.03617
10 0.54 958 958 42 0.04229
11 0.60 951 951 49 0.04937
12 0.66 942 942 58 0.05752
1000
13 0.72 933 933 67 0.06688
14 0.78 922 922 78 0.07758
15 0.84 910 910 90 0.08974
16 800 0.90 897 897 103 0.10347
Population (Healthy /Sick)

17 0.96 881 881 119 0.11889

18 1.02 864 864 136 0.13605
19 600 1.08 845 845 155 0.15498
20 1.14 824 824 176 0.17567
21 1.20 802 802 198 0.19803
22 1.26 778 778 222 0.22192
400
23 1.32 753 753 247 0.24709
24 1.38 727 727 273 0.27325
25 1.44 700 700 300 0.30003
26 200 1.50 673 673 327 0.32703
27 1.56 646 646 354 0.35381
28 1.62 620 620 380 0.37994
29 0 1.68 595 595 405 0.40503
30 0.00 0.50
1.74 1.00
571 1.50 571 2.00 4292.50 3.00
0.42872 3.50 4.00
31 1.80 549 549 451 0.45075
Time Duration (Months)
32 1.86 529 529 471 0.47093
33 1.92 511 511 489 0.48916
34 1.98 495 495 505 0.50543
35 2.04 480 480 520 0.51977
36 2.10 468 468 532 0.53228
37 2.16 457 457 543 0.54309
38 2.22 448 448 552 0.55237
39 2.28 440 440 560 0.56026
40 2.34 433 433 567 0.56694
41 2.40 427 427 573 0.57256
42 2.46 423 423 577 0.57727
43 2.52 419 419 581 0.58121
44 2.58 416 416 584 0.58449
45 2.64 413 413 587 0.58721
46 2.70 411 411 589 0.58946
47 2.76 409 409 591 0.59132
48 2.82 407 407 593 0.59286
49 2.88 406 406 594 0.59413
50 2.94 405 405 595 0.59518
51 3.00 404 404 596 0.59604
52 3.06 403 403 597 0.59675
53 3.12 403 403 597 0.59733
54 3.18 402 402 598 0.59781
55 3.24 402 402 598 0.59820
56 3.30 401 401 599 0.59852
57 3.36 401 401 599 0.59879
58 3.42 401 401 599 0.59901
59 3.48 401 401 599 0.59919
60 3.54 401 401 599 0.59933
61 3.60 401 401 599 0.59945
62 3.66 400 400 600 0.59955
63 3.72 400 400 600 0.59963
64 3.78 400 400 600 0.59970
65 3.84 400 400 600 0.59975
66 3.90 400 400 600 0.59980
67 3.96 400 400 600 0.59983
68 4.02 400 400 600 0.59986
69 4.08 400 400 600 0.59989
70 4.14 400 400 600 0.59991
71 4.20 400 400 600 0.59992
72 4.26 400 400 600 0.59994
73 4.32 400 400 600 0.59995
74 4.38 400 400 600 0.59996
75 4.44 400 400 600 0.59997
76 4.50 400 400 600 0.59997
77 4.56 400 400 600 0.59998
78 4.62 400 400 600 0.59998
79 4.68 400 400 600 0.59998
80 4.74 400 400 600 0.59999
 81 4.80 400 400 600 0.59999
82 4.86 400 400 600 0.59999
83 4.92 400 400 600 0.59999
84 4.98 400 400 600 0.59999
85 5.04 400 400 600 0.60000
86 5.10 400 400 600 0.60000
87 5.16 400 400 600 0.60000
88 5.22 400 400 600 0.60000
89 5.28 400 400 600 0.60000
90 5.34 400 400 600 0.60000
91 5.40 400 400 600 0.60000
92 5.46 400 400 600 0.60000
93 5.52 400 400 600 0.60000
94 5.58 400 400 600 0.60000
95 5.64 400 400 600 0.60000
96 5.70 400 400 600 0.60000
97 5.76 400 400 600 0.60000
98 5.82 400 400 600 0.60000
99 5.88 400 400 600 0.60000
100 5.94 400 400 600 0.60000
101 6.00 400 400 600 0.60000
 People Catching
Recovery rate
illness
20.00 50
23.54 58
27.69 68
32.56 80
38.27 94
44.93 110
52.72 128
During an Epidemic Outbreak
61.79 150
72.34 174
84.58 203
98.73 235
115.04 271
133.76 312
155.16 358
179.47 408
206.95 464
237.77 524
272.09 588
309.96 655
351.34 724
396.07 794
443.83 863
494.17 930
546.49 993
600.06 1050
654.06 1100
707.63 1143 Healthy People (t) Healthy Vs. Sick People inetrati
759.89 1178 1400 (t)
Sick People
810.05 1205
3.50 4.00
857.43 4.501225 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50

on (Months) 901.49 1238 1200

941.86 1246
978.33 1249
1000
lthy /Sick)

800
 1200

1010.86 1250 1000

1039.54 1248

Population (Healthy /Sick)

1064.56 1245
800
1086.19 1241
1104.73 1236
1120.52 1232
600
1133.88 1228
1145.12 1224
1154.55 1220
400
1162.42 1217
1168.97 1214
1174.41 1212 200
1178.92 1210
1182.65 1208
1185.73 1207 0
1188.27 1206 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

1190.36 1205 Time

1192.08 1204
1193.50 1203
1194.66 1203
1195.62 1202
1196.40 1202
1197.05 1201
1197.58 1201
1198.01 1201
1198.37 1201
1198.66 1201
1198.90 1201
1199.10 1200
1199.26 1200
1199.40 1200
1199.50 1200
1199.59 1200
1199.67 1200
1199.73 1200
1199.78 1200
1199.82 1200
1199.85 1200
1199.88 1200
1199.90 1200
1199.92 1200
1199.93 1200
1199.94 1200
1199.95 1200
1199.96 1200
1199.97 1200
1199.97 1200
1199.98 1200
1199.98 1200
1199.99 1200
1199.99 1200
1199.99 1200
1199.99 1200
1199.99 1200
1199.99 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
1200.00 1200
y Vs. Sick People inetrations During an Epidemic Outbreak
 Healthy People (t)
Sick People (t)
Recovery rate
People Catching illness

2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50

Time Duration (Months)

Time duration Population Initial Healthy People Healthy people Sick People
0 1000 990 990 10
0.06 1000 988 988 11.77
0.12 1000 986 986 13.84704013
0.18 1000 984 984 15.92408026
0.24 1000 982 982 18.3590253273
0.3 1000 979 979 21.1492868745
0.36 1000 976 976 24.3527952901
0.42 1000 972 972 28.0254792269
0.48 1000 968 968 32.2310647876
0.54 1000 963 963 37.0400228026
0.6 1000 957 957 42.5299620032
0.66 1000 951 951 48.7855771209
0.72 1000 944 944 55.8983309811
0.78 1000 936 936 63.9657251023
0.84 1000 927 927 73.090037657
0.9 1000 917 917 83.3763839791
0.96 1000 905 905 94.9299446759
1.02 1000 892 892 107.852207371
1.08 1000 878 878 122.236089093
1.14 1000 862 862 138.15985683
1.2 1000 844 844 155.679854423
1.26 1000 825 825 174.822184841
1.32 1000 804 804 195.573693515
1.38 1000 782 782 217.872847893
1.44 1000 758 758 241.601391847
1.5 1000 733 733 266.577931113
1.56 1000 707 707 292.554811883
1.62 1000 681 681 319.219701476
1.68 1000 654 654 346.203072228
1.74 1000 627 627 373.092253151
1.8 1000 601 601 399.451835986
1.86 1000 575 575 424.849092745
1.92 1000 551 551 448.88189244
1.98 1000 529 529 471.205703653
2.04 1000 508 508 491.555958284
2.1 1000 490 490 509.762540395
2.16 1000 474 474 525.754434848
2.22 1000 460 460 539.554337843
2.28 1000 449 449 551.264818386
2.34 1000 439 439 561.048934153
2.4 1000 431 431 569.108731465
2.46 1000 424 424 575.664767658
2.52 1000 419 419 580.938914853
2.58 1000 415 415 585.141595615
2.64 1000 412 412 588.463593451
2.7 1000 409 409 591.071874586
2.76 1000 407 407 593.108501162
2.82 1000 405 405 594.69165031
2.88 1000 404 404 595.917872274
2.94 1000 403 403 596.864921645
3 1000 402 402 597.594705506
3.06 1000 402 402 598.156070995
3.12 1000 401 401 598.587288371
3.18 1000 401 401 598.91817557
3.24 1000 401 401 599.171864937
3.3 1000 401 401 599.366242231
3.36 1000 400 400 599.5151008
3.42 1000 400 400 599.629056704
3.48 1000 400 400 599.716268022
3.54 1000 400 400 599.782996535
3.6 1000 400 400 599.83404414
3.66 1000 400 400 599.873090637
3.72 1000 400 400 599.902954429
3.78 1000 400 400 599.925793283
3.84 1000 400 400 599.94325866
3.9 1000 400 400 599.956614217
3.96 1000 400 400 599.966826693
4.02 1000 400 400 599.974635569
4.08 1000 400 400 599.980606434
4.14 1000 400 400 599.985171839
4.2 1000 400 400 599.988662568
4.26 1000 400 400 599.991331571
4.32 1000 400 400 599.99337227
4.38 1000 400 400 599.994932565
4.44 1000 400 400 599.996125543
4.5 1000 400 400 599.997037674
4.56 1000 400 400 599.997735071
4.62 1000 400 400 599.998268287
4.68 1000 400 400 599.998675973
4.74 1000 400 400 599.99898768
4.8 1000 400 400 599.999226005
4.86 1000 400 400 599.999408222
4.92 1000 400 400 599.999547541
4.98 1000 400 400 599.999654061
5.04 1000 400 400 599.999735503
5.1 1000 400 400 599.999797772
5.16 1000 400 400 599.999845382
5.22 1000 400 400 599.999881783
5.28 1000 400 400 599.999909614
5.34 1000 400 400 599.999930893
5.4 1000 400 400 599.999947163
5.46 1000 400 400 599.999959602
5.52 1000 400 400 599.999969113
5.58 1000 400 400 599.999976384
5.64 1000 400 400 599.999981944
5.7 1000 400 400 599.999986195
5.76 1000 400 400 599.999989445
5.82 1000 400 400 599.99999193
5.88 1000 400 400 599.99999383
5.94 1000 400 400 599.999995282
6 1000 400 400 599.999996393
 Probability of
Cathcing Duration of Population Probability of contact with sick
illness illness Recovery rate interactions catching illness people
1200
49.5 0.5 20 10 0.5 0.01
58.1573355 0.5 23.54 10 0.5 0.01177 1000
58.1573355 0.5 23.54 10 0.5 0.01177
68.276498 0.5 27.7 10 0.5 0.01384704013 800
78.3525196 0.5 31.8 10 0.5 0.01592408026
600
90.1098576 0.5 36.7 10 0.5 0.0183590253273
103.509973 0.5 42.3 10 0.5 0.0211492868745 400
118.798683 0.5 48.7 10 0.5 0.0243527952901
136.200259 0.5 56.1 10 0.5 0.0280254792269 200
155.961116 0.5 64.5 10 0.5 0.0322310647876
0
178.340298 0.5 74.1 10 0.5 0.0370400228026 0 0.9
203.605822 0.5 85.1 10 0.5 0.0425299620032
232.027723 0.5 97.6 10 0.5 0.0487855771209
263.868538 0.5 111.8 10 0.5 0.0558983309811
299.370556 0.5 127.9 10 0.5 0.0639657251023
338.73942 0.5 146.2 10 0.5 0.073090037657
382.123813 0.5 166.8 10 0.5 0.0833763839791
429.591251 0.5 189.9 10 0.5 0.0949299446759
481.100544 0.5 215.7 10 0.5 0.1078522073705
536.472138 0.5 244.5 10 0.5 0.1222360890933
595.358554 0.5 276.3 10 0.5 0.1381598568296
657.218187 0.5 311.4 10 0.5 0.1556798544234
721.296943 0.5 349.6 10 0.5 0.1748221848409
786.62312 0.5 391.1 10 0.5 0.1955736935152
852.02135 0.5 435.7 10 0.5 0.2178728478928
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1034.83247 0.5 585.1 10 0.5 0.2925548118827
1086.59242 0.5 638.4 10 0.5 0.3192197014761
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1199.45033 0.5 798.9 10 0.5 0.3994518359858
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1200.28333 0.5 1199.4 10 0.5 0.5997162680216
1200.21677 0.5 1199.6 10 0.5 0.5997829965353
1200.16582 0.5 1199.7 10 0.5 0.5998340441402
1200.12683 0.5 1199.7 10 0.5 0.5998730906367
1200.097 0.5 1199.8 10 0.5 0.5999029544291
1200.07418 0.5 1199.9 10 0.5 0.5999257932827
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1200.03317 0.5 1199.9 10 0.5 0.5999668266925
1200.02536 0.5 1199.9 10 0.5 0.5999746355687
1200.01939 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999806064339
1200.01483 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999851718386
1200.01134 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999886625676
1200.00867 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999913315707
1200.00663 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.59999337227
1200.00507 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999949325647
1200.00387 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999961255429
1200.00296 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999970376736
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1200.00132 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999986759731
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1200.00077 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999992260048
1200.00059 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.599999408222
1200.00045 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999995475409
1200.00035 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999996540609
1200.00026 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999997355034
1200.0002 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999997977725
1200.00015 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999998453818
1200.00012 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999998817828
1200.00009 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.599999909614
1200.00007 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999999308931
1200.00005 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999999471626
1200 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999999596018
1200 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999999691126
1200 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999999763842
1200 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.599999981944
1200 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999999861948
1200 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999999894449
1200 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999999919298
1200 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999999938297
1200 0.5 1200.0 10 0.5 0.5999999952824
 Chart Title
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