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Prepared for:

EU Sixth Framework Programme; SPEAR project

Set-up and calibration of a hydrodynamic model for Huangdun Bay

E.D. de Goede

Report April 2007

Z3637.20

delft hydraulics

Prepared for:

EU Sixth Framework Programme (FP6-2002-INCO-DEV-1); SPEAR project

Set-up and calibration of a hydrodynamic model for Huangdun Bay

E.D. de Goede

Version 2.0

Report

April, 2007

Z3637.20

Set-up and calibration of hydrodynamic model for Huangdun Bay

Z3637.20 Version 2.0

April, 2007

Contents

Introduction .................................................................................................... 11 1.1 1.2 Background.......................................................................................... 11 Description of Huangdun Bay and Xiangshan Bay ............................... 11

Data acquisition .............................................................................................. 21 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 Land boundaries................................................................................... 21 Bathymetry .......................................................................................... 23 River discharges................................................................................... 23 Open boundary forcing......................................................................... 24 2.4.1 2.4.2 2.5 2.6 Water level data ....................................................................... 24 Salinity data............................................................................. 25

Wind forcing........................................................................................ 25 Water level measurements .................................................................... 26

Set-up of hydrodynamic model ...................................................................... 31 3.1 3.2 Model approach ................................................................................... 31 Model grid ........................................................................................... 31 3.2.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 Coordinate systems.................................................................. 34

Model bathymetry................................................................................ 34 Open boundary forcing......................................................................... 35 Wind forcing........................................................................................ 35 Other input parameters ......................................................................... 35 3.6.1 3.6.2 3.6.3 Viscosity, diffusivity and bed roughness................................... 35 Turbulence model .................................................................... 36 Computational time step .......................................................... 36

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Set-up and calibration of hydrodynamic model for Huangdun Bay

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Hydrodynamic model results.......................................................................... 41 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Calibration approach ............................................................................ 41 Water level model results ..................................................................... 41 Model results for salinity...................................................................... 44 3D model results .................................................................................. 46

5 6 A

Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 51 References ....................................................................................................... 61 Description of box model for water quality .................................................... A1 A.1.1 Distribution of discharges over the 12 boxes ............................. A1

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List of Figures
Introduction 1.1 1.2 Sketch of Xiangshan Bay Activities in Huangdun Bay

Data acquisition 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 Land boundary for Xiangshan Bay Land boundary for Huangdun Bay Altimetry data for Huangdun Bay Bathymetry samplings for Xiangshan Bay Locations of East China Sea salinity sampling locations Salinity measurement locations for the inner part of Xiangshan Bay Water level measurements for Huangdun Bay Harmonic constants for Huangdun Bay Overview of water level and wind forcing measurement locations

Set-up of hydrodynamic model 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Overview of model grid for Huangdun Bay Detailed view of model grid near Huangdun Bay Detailed view of model grid near Xihu Bay Detailed view of model grid near Niubishan and Fuodu watercourses Model bathymetry for Huangdun Bay

Hydrodynamic model results 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 Computed and measured water levels Computed and measured salinity at location Tio 4 for 2005 (2D model) Computed and measured salinity at location Tio 8 for 2005 (2D model) Computed and measured salinity at location Tio 8 for 2003 (2D model) Computed and measured salinity at location Tio 4 for 2005 (3D model) Vertical profile of computed salinity at 30 June

Box model for water quality A.1 Overview of box model

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1
1.1

Introduction
Background

The set-up and calibration of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for Huangdun Bay is part of Task WP 4.5 of the SPEAR project. The SPEAR project is part of the EU FP6 project (FP6-2002-INCO-DEV). SPEAR stands for Sustainable options for PEople, catchment and Aquatic Resources, see the Technical Annex of the SPEAR project (SPEAR, 2004). It aims at the development of an integrated framework for interpreting the coastal zone dynamics, in areas where communities primarily depend on marine resources. This framework accounts for watershed interactions, ecological structure and human activities. It combines natural and social sciences, and addresses complex scaling issues that are inherent to integrated management. Two contrasting bays in China will be studied in the SPEAR project. This involves Sanggou Bay, which is part of a rural watershed, and Huangdun Bay, which is located in an industrialized area south of Shanghai. In the SPEAR project, WL | Delft Hydraulics is responsible for the development of hydrodynamic model for Huangdun Bay. The hydrodynamic model for Sanggou Bay will be done by Chinese partners in the SPEAR project. In this report the activities that have been conducted by WL | Delft Hydraulics for Task 4.5 of the SPEAR project are described. This involves the set-up and calibration of the threedimensional hydrodynamic model for Huangdun Bay. The flow fields computed with this Huangdun Bay hydrodynamic model will be used for one-year water quality simulations. Water quality simulations will be conducted by IMAR with their ecological E2K software and by WL | Delft Hydraulics with their Delft3D-WAQ software. This will be further explained in Appendix A.

1.2

Description of Huangdun Bay and Xiangshan Bay

Huangdun Bay is situated in the Xiangshan Bay and is located in the most westward part of Xiangshan Bay. Xiangshan bay is situated in northern of Zhejiang province, bordering Hangzhou bay in north, Sanmeng Bay in south, and the Zhoushan archipelago in the east. Xiangshan Bay also borders the East China Sea. This is 60km long, the mouth is 20km wide, its depth is 7 to 8m. Deepwater is located in the middle, with a width of 3 to 8km and the depth is from 10 to 50m. The bay is connected to the Zhoushan sea via the Fudou watercourse in the eastnorth, and to the Damuyang sea and East China Sea via the Niubishan watercourse in the eastsouth (see Figure 1.1). We remark that in Figure 1.1 a lot of measurement locations are shown. However, these locations have not been used in the SPEAR project. This figure is only been used for a sketch of Xiangshan Bay.

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Figure 1.1:

Sketch of Xiangshan Bay (This figure has been taken from (Huang et al., 2003)).

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Figure 1.2:

Activities in Huangdun Bay

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The circulation in Xiangshan Bay is mainly driven by the tide. Wind forcing and density currents are of minor importance. Moreover, vertical stratification of salinity or temperature hardly occurs. After the tidal wave enters Xiangshan Bay, it becomes more or less a standing wave. High tide at Duishishan occurs about 20 minutes before Xize, at Guoju about 10 minutes before Xize. High and low tides at Qiangjiao, Wushashan and Xize occur more or less at the same time. Huangdun Bay is one of most intensive areas of mariculture in China. Mariculture plays a very important part for local economic activity, Huangdun Bay has an area of 90 km2, see Figure 1.2. The catchment area includes a number of rivers and nine towns belonging to two districts of Ningbo city. About 250.000 people live along the shores of Huangdun Bay, which is only 70 km from the city of Ningbo, with 5.5 million people. Development of both industry and mariculture has caused that seawater quality is now a problem, especially with higher concentrations of nitrogen and the occurrence of red tides. Moreover, land use conflicts such as reclamation requirements for industrial development also challenge. The SPEAR project aims at an integrated framework for the coastal zone dynamics of Huangdun bay, so that the conflicting socio-economical and ecological demands and their interaction can be better understood.

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Data acquisition

In the SPEAR project data collection is part of Task WP2, see (SPEAR, 2004). In this chapter is described which data sets have been used for hydrodynamic modelling of Huangdun Bay. Since Huangdun Bay is only a small bay and is part of the much larger Xiangshan Bay, the hydrodynamic model will be called Xiangshan Bay model. This better describes the model area that is involved. For all data sets we now describe how this data has been gathered. Also the quality of the data sets is assessed. We remark that a majority of the data sets was taken from SPEAR website.

2.1

Land boundaries

The data set with land boundary information for Xiangshan Bay was provided by SPEAR WP 4.2 in the form of a GIS shape file (see Huangdun_coastline.shp). In Figure 2.1 the coastline is shown.

Figure 2.1:

Land boundary for Xiangshan Bay

The coastline has been checked by comparing the land/water interface of Xiangshan Bay with the Google Earth satellite data. It appears that the coastline is in good agreement with data from Google Earth. This is illustrated for Huangdun Bay in Figure 2.2.

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Figure 2.2:

Land boundary (in red) for Huangdun bay.

Figure 2.3:

Altimetry data for the Huangdun Bay area

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Also altimetry data was provided by SPEAR WP 4.2. By comparing the coastline with the altimetry data, a good agreement for the land/water interface is observed as well. As an illustration, Figure 2.3 shows the altimetry data for the Huangdun Bay area.

2.2

Bathymetry

For the bathymetry of the Huangdun Bay model two different data sets have been used, namely: 1. bathymetry data from Admiralty Chart 1126 for the outer area of Xiangshan Bay; 2. and bathymetry data provided by by SPEAR WP 4.2 for the western part of Xiangshan Bay, in which Huangdun Bay is situated. These data sets are shown in Figure 2.4. The left part corresponds to the second data set (Huangdun Bay samplings) and the right part to the first data set (from the Admiralty Chart). Figure 2.4 also shows that there is a bathymetry gap in the middle section of Xiangshan Bay. For this area no bathymetry information is available in the current project. Therefore, the model bathymetry for the middle part of the model area has been estimated. This is described in more detail in Section 3.3.

Figure 2.4:

Bathymetry samplings for Xiangshan Bay

2.3

River discharges

For 274 rivers and creeks that enter Xiangshan Bay daily-averaged river flows have been generated by IMAR using their SWAT model. This data set contains daily-averaged river flows for the period of 1 January 2003 to 1 June 2006. For all rivers it is assumed that the

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salinity concentration is zero, which is confirmed by salinity measurements made available by SPEAR WP4.2. Although a lot of rivers and creeks enter Xiangshan Bay, the total discharge is limited. For all rivers together the average discharge is in the order of 30 40 m3/s. However, this is completely different for the period of 5 to 9 August 2005. In these four days the total river discharge is more or les similar to what enters Xiangshan Bay in a whole year (in the order of 10,000 m3). This is due to the typhoon Matsa.

2.4
2.4.1

Open boundary forcing


Water level data

For water levels at the open boundaries astronomic tidal components from the GOT99.2 tide model of Ray (1999) have been used. GOT stands for Goddard/Grenoble Ocean Tide. This data are primarily based on the tidal analyses of 6 years of Topex/Poseidon altimeter data, supplemented with several hydrodynamic models in shallow and polar seas. See Ray (1999) for details on model development, as well as for comparisons of the model with tide gauge measurements. This data can be downloaded from the Internet. This tidal information has been used as starting point for the calibration of the hydrodynamic Huangdun Bay model (see section 4.2 for more details).

Figure 2.5:

Locations of East China Sea salinity sampling locations

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Figure 2.6:

Salinity measurement locations for the inner part of Xiangshan Bay

2.4.2

Salinity data

For the salinity values at the open boundaries, data from a research project of FIO China has been used. In Figures 2.5 and 2.6 an overview is given of the measurement locations. However, the open sea measurements (see Figure 2.5) were measured for another time period than the measurements inside Xiangshan Bay. Therefore, we have combined measurement sets from the years 2002-2005. For the open sea locations we have used data from 2002 and the beginning of 2003. For the area inside Xiangshan Bay measurements from 2003 and 2005 have been used. It is observed that the salinity measurements in 2003 and 2005 are rather different. Differences of even 2 (or more) ppt occur at similar periods throughout the year. In 2005 maximum salinity concentrations occur around July, while in 2003 maximum values occur in September. We remark that it is a pity that for both periods only measurements are available for half a year (roughly from April/May to the end of the year). Also the frequency is rather low, with one measurement per month. For more details on the salinity measurements we refer to (Delft Hydraulics, 2006).

2.5

Wind forcing

For wind forcing data from NASA's Quick Scatterometer (QuickSCAT) has been used, see http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/dcatalog/fam_summary.pl?ovw+qscat. Location (latitude = 29.625 , longitude = 122.375 ) has been used. For each day a wind speed and wind direction is provided. For the same period as for the river discharges we have downloaded this data (thus from 1 January 2003 to 1 June 2006).

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In Figure 2.9 this wind forcing measurement location is shown (see location meas. wind). This location is somewhat outside out model domain. However, at locations inside out model domain the measurements are incomplete and can not be used.

2.6

Water level measurements

For water levels two measurements data sets are available, namely from: 1. a measurement time series carried out by SPEAR in Huangdun Bay. 2. report Tidal prediction for Huangdun bay using Oceanus 2000, see (Numes, 2006). The first data set contains water level measurements from 17 May 2005 to 12 June 2005. However, this data set is imperfect. The high water levels above a certain value (10,688 m) have not been measured. This is shown in Figure 2.7. Moreover, the reference level is not known for this measurement set. It is clearly not in, for example, MSL (Mean Sea Level), since the measurements are in the order of + 10 m above the reference level. Also the time zone is not known. In Figure 2.9 this measurement location is shown (see location meas. WL-1). Because of these two reasons (no high water measurements and an unknown reference level) this data set has only been used for global comparison. Furthermore, we have used the water level measurement data set from Numes (2006). At one location in Xiangshan Bay (namely at 29.617 N and 121.833 E) the water levels were measured for whole 2005 with an interval of one hour (see location meas. WL-2 in Figure 2.9). This data set has been harmonically analysed by Numes. The harmonic constants of the ten most important components are shown in Figure 2.8. In general, water level and/or current measurements at several (e.g., at five) locations should be known for a calibration or validation. However, this is not available in the SPEAR project. Therefore, we will work with only one water level measurement set.

Figure 2.7:

Water level measurements for Huangdun Bay

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Figure 2.8:

Harmonic constants for Huangdun Bay (taken from (Numes, 2006))

Figure 2.9:

Overview of water level and wind forcing measurement locations

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3
3.1

Set-up of hydrodynamic model


Model approach

According to the SPEAR Technical Annex, the DELFT3D modelling suite has to be used to simulate the water flows and the water quality in Huangdun Bay. Although the Bay is rather shallow and density stratification hardly occurs, a three dimensional hydrodynamic model is applied. Three-dimensional modelling is nowadays the standard in hydrodynamic modelling. We remark that the corresponding two-dimensional model will result into more or less similar model results, because of the shallowness and the limited stratification in Huangdun Bay. The The tidal flows (water levels and velocity currents) and salinity are simulated with Delft3D-FLOW, which is the hydrodynamic modelling system of WL | Delft Hydraulics (WL, 2005). The final goal is to conduct water quality simulations that make use of the flow fields computed by the hydrodynamic model.

3.2

Model grid

The hydrodynamic model covers both Xiangshan Bay and an adjacent part of the East China Sea. In this way the open boundaries are sufficiently far away from our main area of interest, which is Huangdun Bay. According to the SPEAR Technical Annex the model should have a curvi-linear grid, with roughly 5,000-15.000 computational cells and the size of the smallest cells in Huangdun Bay should be approximately 200 by 200m. The model grid that is applied in this project contains more than 10,000 computational cells and has a horizontal resolution of 250 by 250 m (or even slightly less) in the Huangdun Bay area. Due to the curvilinear grid, the mesh sizes vary from roughly 250 m in Huangdun Bay to about 400 m near the open boundaries. The computational grid is shown in Figures 3.1-4. Figure 3.1 contains an overall view of the model, whereas Figure 3.2 shows a detailed view of the model grid in the vicinity of Huangdun Bay. Similarly, Figures 3.3 contains a detailed view for Xihu Bay, while Figure 3.4 contains a detailed view near the open boundaries, which are in the Fuodu and Niubishan water courses. In the background of all figures satellite images from Google Earth has been used. In this way, the land/water interfaces can be checked in a visual way as well. Salinity is included in the model, because horizontal salinity (and therefore also density) gradients occur in Xiangshan Bay. These density gradients influence the water flow (i.e the so-called baroclinic forcing). We remark that the influences by the tide (i.e. the so-called barotropic forcing) is much more important than the baroclinic forcing. In the vertical direction ten equidistant layers are applied, each, with 10 layers of each 10% of the local water depth.

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Figure 3.1:

Overview of model grid for Huangdun Bay.

Figure 3.2:

Detailed view of model grid near Huangdun Bay.

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Figure 3.3:

Detailed view of model grid near Xihu Bay

Figure 3.4:

Detailed view of model grid near Niubishan and Fuodu watercourses

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3.2.1

Coordinate systems

The applied horizontal reference system of the Xiangshan Bay model is geographical (latitude / longitude) coordinates. The depth and water level information are defined relative to Mean Sea Level (MSL). The time reference is defined as local time, which corresponds to Time Zone GMT +08:00 hours.

3.3

Model bathymetry

As described in Section 2.2, for the middle part of the Xiangshan Bay model no bathymetry measurements are available. Therefore, we have guessed the bathymetry in that area. In that area Xiangshan Bay is deepest, with depth values of up to 50 m. We have assumed that there is a channel in that area.

Figure 3.5:

Model bathymetry for Huangdun Bay.

In Figure 2.4 is shown at which locations bathymetry measurement are available. At other locations the bathymetry values have been determined by interpolation. If a location is surrounded by measurement points, then its depth value is determined by so-called

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triangulation interpolation. For other locations, in particular near the coast, the bathymetry is determined by linear interpolation between the coast line (with a depth value of 0 m) and the measurement point. For our model the most outward situated bathymetry measurement points in Tie Bay and in Huangdun Bay have a depth values of 0 m. In this case also bathymetry between the coastline and the first measurement locations has a depth value of 0 m as well. In Figure 3.5 an overall view the model bathymetry of the Xiangshan Bay model is shown.

3.4

Open boundary forcing

For the hydrodynamic open boundary forcing we started with twelve harmonic constants from the GOT99.2 tide model of Ray (1999), see also Section 2.4.1. For the location of the GOT99.2 tide model that is closest to the open boundaries of the Xiangshan Bay model, the harmonic constants were taken. The following harmonic constants are prescribed: M2, S2, K1, N2, O1, SA, K2, P1, M4, MS4, Q1 and MN4. In (Huang et al., 2003) it is reported that at the Niubishan watercourse the tidal wave is about 30 minutes earlier than at the Fuodu watercourse. Therefore, between the Niubishan and the Fuodu open boundary a phase shift of 30 minutes is applied. At both ends of these two open boundaries the same forcing is applied, which means that we have uniform water levels along the open boundary. For the open boundary forcing for salinity we have applied the measurement time series of DF22 for 2002. For all years (namely 2003-2006) we have used time series, because for other years no measurements are available. In this way, it is assumed that the open sea salinity values are more or less similar in each year. However, from the measurements inside Xiangshan Bay we already know that there is a considerable variation between the years, see Section 2.4.1.

3.5

Wind forcing

As already described in Section 2.5, at one location, namely at (latitude = 29.625 , longitude = 122.375 ) wind forcing data is available, see also Figure 2.9. This means that in the Xiangshan Bay model a spatially constant and time varying wind is used.

3.6
3.6.1

Other input parameters


Viscosity, diffusivity and bed roughness

A constant horizontal eddy viscosity of 1.0 m2/s is applied. A constant horizontal eddy diffusivity of 1.0 m2/s is used. Both values are the default values in Delft3D-FLOW. A so-called Manning formulation is used to account for bed friction. The Manning coefficient has a constant value of 0.026 s/m1/3, which from extensive experience is known to be appropriate values for Delft3D-FLOW.

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3.6.2

Turbulence model

In vertical direction, an advanced vertical turbulence model is used, namely the so-called kturbulence model. Such a turbulence model is required and is extensively used for stratified areas. In Xiangshan Bay there is hardly any salinity stratification. Nevertheless, we have decided to apply this advanced turbulence model. In areas of sufficient stratification, which occurs only in case of high river outflows, this gives better results.

3.6.3

Computational time step

The time step used equals 150 seconds, which is sufficiently small to obtain accurate model results. This has been verified by sensitivity simulations. A one-year simulation with the 3D Xiangshan Bay model (with salinity, ten equidistant layers and the k- turbulence model) requires about 2,5 days of computation time on a 3.6 GHz (Linux) PC. The 2D model (with salinity, depth-averaged) takes about six hours.

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4
4.1

Hydrodynamic model results


Calibration approach

For the set-up and calibration of the hydrodynamic Xiangshan Bay model a three-step approach is followed. At first the model is calibrated on water levels. In a second step the salinity values are calibrated. For this purpose, the computed water levels have been harmonically analysed. We remark that the harmonic constants for the water level measurement data set are shown in Figure 2.7. The first two steps are conducted with a twodimensional (or depth-averaged) model. This leads to much shorter computation times, allowing a faster calibration procedure. This approach is justified because stratification plays a minor role in Xiangshan Bay. In a last and third step the calibrated model of step two is converted into a 3D model, by changing from one to ten layers in vertical direction. A simulation with this 3D model is done to verify that the model results are very close to the ones of the two-dimensional model. The calibration on water levels is done by adjusting the open boundary water levels. This means that tidal constants at the open boundary are varied. Other parameters, such as wind drag coefficients and bottom roughness coefficients, are of minor importance. Moreover, no information is known for these parameters. The calibration on salinity is done by adjusting the horizontal diffusion coefficient. In 3D modelling this is less important, because phenomena such as vertical shear, are part of a 3D model. We note that in 2D modelling this is an important parameter.

4.2

Water level model results

For water levels at the open boundaries harmonic tidal components from the GOT99.2 tide model of Ray (1999) have been used as a starting point, see Section 2.4. In the calibration stage these harmonic components have been varied in order to obtain a better fit with the harmonic constants for the one-year measurement series (see Figure 2.7). In the integrated Delft3D system a tidal analysis program is available, which is called Delft3D-TRIANA. For all harmonic constants that are specified by the user, amplitude and phase errors are computed. The simulation period is for whole 2005, because for this whole year water level measurements are available. Moreover, this period of one year is sufficiently long for a tidal analysis. After tuning the harmonic tidal components at the open boundaries hydrodynamic model results have been achieved that are in good agreement with the measurements. In Table 4.1 an overview is given for the most important tidal components. We now first explain the notation in this table: Hc = computed amplitude, Ho = observed amplitude, Gc = computed phase, Go = observed phase, with the phase difference in degrees. The average for Hc/Ho has been computed that taking the average of the absolute values of (Hc/Ho-1), increased

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by 1. For the phase differences Gc-Go the average of the absolute differences has been taken.

Figure 4.1:

Computed (in black) and measured (in red) water levels for 3-18 October 2005

Comp M2 S2 K1 O1 N2 SA M4 MS4 Q1 MN4

Hc 1.281 0.567 0.370 0.268 0.228 0.164 0.072 0.056 0.026 0.020

Gc 260.623 308.792 209.052 159.856 247.091 156.920 251.738 307.202 136.343 225.792

Ho 1.332 0.578 0.377 0.275 0.222 0.167 0.083 0.064 0.034 0.026

Go 261.000 309.000 209.000 157.000 248.000 157.000 250.000 308.000 139.000 230.000

Hc-Ho -0.051 -0.011 -0.007 -0.007 0.006 -0.003 -0.011 -0.008 -0.008 -0.006

Gc-Go -0.377 -0.209 0.052 2.856 -0.909 -0.080 1.738 -0.798 -2.657 -4.208

Hc/Ho 0.962 0.982 0.981 0.975 1.028 0.982 0.869 0.868 0.777 0.771

Table.4.1: Computed and observed tidal constants (Amplitudes in m and phases in )

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From Table 4.1 it can be seen that for the most important tidal components the computed and measured amplitudes and phases are in good agreement. For example, for M2 the amplitude error (Hc-Ho) is in the order of 5 cm. The phase error is less than 1 . For S2 the amplitude error is in the order of 1 cm and thee phase error is also less than 1 The so-called summed vector difference, which is a measure for the total error for all components, is roughly 12 cm. Taking into account the bathymetry gap and the availability of only one water level measurement location. it does not make sense to further improve the tidal results. For example, in (Nunes, 2006) it was stated that due to meteorological effects errors of 30-40 cm can occur. As an illustration, Figure 4.1 contains the computed and measured water levels for the first half of October. We remark that the chosen period is arbitrary. For other periods the results look similarly. In Figure 4.2 a comparison between the computed and measured water levels is done for the other water level measurement location (see Section 2.6 and Figure 2.7). In that section we already described that the reference level (both in vertical direction and the time zone) are not known. Therefore, we have shifted this measurement series in vertical direction and in time, in order to obtain amplitudes and phases that are more or less in agreement with the computed water level. This is shown in Figure 4.2, in which the red line denotes the measurement and the black line the computed water level. The computed and measured values are in reasonable agreement with each other.

Figure 4.2:

Computed (in black) and measured (in red) water levels for May and June 2005

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4.3

Model results for salinity

After the calibration of water levels, a calibration on salinity has been conducted. For the years 2003, 2004 and 2005 we have complete data set (e.g. for river discharges and wind forcing). However, 2005 is not a representative year because typhoon Matsa occurs in August 2005, which has a huge effect on the salinity patterns. Therefore, we have chosen to simulate the year 2003. We remark that for 2004 the model results would have been more or less similar. With respect to the salinity measurements, we have data for 2002 (at open sea), 2003 (inside Xiangshan Bay). and for 2005 (inside Xiangshan Bay). As described in Section 2.4.1 the salinity measurements for these two years differ considerably. From literature, only in (Fan et al., 1989) we have found some information about the salinity patters in Xiangshan Bay. In that paper measurements for 1982 are shown. In that year maximum salinity values (in the order of 26-27 ppt) occur around mid July. This more or less corresponds to our salinity measurements from 2005. Therefore, we have chosen to first make a comparison with the salinity data from 2005. Next, a comparison with the 2003 salinity data is made. For selecting the salinity values at the open boundary, there are several options. In Figure 2.5 it can be seen that for several locations at open sea measurements are available, for example at locations DF21 and DF22. We have tested three options: DF21 salinity values, DF22 values and the average of four measurement locations (i.e DE17, DE18, DF21 and DF22). It appears that when using the DF22 salinity values the computed and observed salinity values are in good agreement with each other. For the other two options the agreement was not very good. Probably at location DF21 fresh water inflows are noticeable. The salinity values at DF21 generate much too low salinity values insite Xiangshan Bay. Therefore, we have used the salinity measurements at location DF22 as open boundary values. As an illustration, in Figures 4.2 and 4.3 the computed (in red) and observed (see crosses) salinity values are shown at locations Tio 4 and Tio 9, respectively (see Figure 2.6 for an overview of the locations). From these figures it can be seen that the time evolution of the computed and measured salinity is in reasonable agreement with each other.

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Figure 4.2:

Computed and measured salinity (for 2005) at location Tio 4

Figure 4.3:

Computed and measured salinity (for 2005) at location Tio 9

Additionally, a comparison with the 2003 salinity measurements has been made. This is shown in Figure 4.4. Now, large differences occur. This is to be expected because the same model results are used (as for the comparison with the 2005 salinity data) and the measured values are rather different. The 2003 salinity measurements are also rather different from the 1982 measurements in (Fan et al., 1989). Therefore, we conclude that the 2005 salinity data is more representative than the 2003 data.

Figure 4.4:

Computed and measured salinity (for 2003) at location H4

Next, a calibration on the horizontal dispersion coefficient has been carried out. In this calibration the 2005 salinity measurements have been used and not the 2003 salinity data. In general, the horizontal dispersion coefficient is an important calibration parameter. For example, because 3D effects have to be taken into account in this parameter. However, for the SPEAR estuary other values than the default value in Delft3D-FLOW (namely 10 m2/s)

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did not lead a noticeable improvement. This might be due to the fact that the horizontal salinity gradients are relatively small in Xiangshan Bay. For the evolution is time this is not the case, with the salinity varying between 23 and 28 ppt throughout the year. However, the variation in space is small, with in all measurement locations in the western part of Xiangshan bay more or less the same values.

4.4

3D model results

As already described at the beginning of this chapter, in a third step (after calibration of at first the water levels and secondly the salinities), the calibrated model is converted from 2D to 3D, by switching from one to ten (equidistant) layers in vertical direction. Next, a full one-year simulation is conducted in order to compare with measurements and with the model results of the two-dimensional model. The results of the 3D model are in good agreement with the two-dimensional model results. This is to be expected, because the river inflows are very small and also at the open boundaries hardly any stratification occurs. Since the two-dimensional model results are in reasonable agreement with the measurements, this holds for the 3D model as well. Other values than the default value in Delft3D-FLOW for 3D (namely 1 m2/s) did not lead a noticeable improvement. As an illustration, this is shown in Figure 4.5, with computed and measured salinity values at location Tio 9. The agreement with the measurements is perhaps even slightly better for the 3D model compared to the 2D model (see Figure 4.3).

Figure 4.5:

Computed and measured salinity at location Tio 9

As an illustration of the limited stratification, Figure 4.6 contains the vertical contour of salinity at a cross section that more or less coincides with the main channel in Xiangshan Bay. The white area in Figure 4.6 represents land. At a few locations some stratification can be observed, but this stratification is rather weak. In this figure the salinity varies from 25 ppt to 27.5 ppt. The highest salinity concentrations are in the middle part of Xiangshan Bay. This is due to a historic effect. In April the salinity at the open boundaries are maximum with values in the order of 31 ppt. Since April the boundary salinity values are decreasing, yielding values in the order of 25 ppt in July. We remark that at 30 June the

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stratification is relatively large compared to other periods in time. This again illustrates that stratification plays a minor role in Xiangshan Bay.

Figure 4.6: Vertical profile of salinity at 30 June

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Conclusions

In the SPEAR project a hydrodynamic model for Huangdun Bay has been set-up and calibrated, as described in this report. This activity corresponds to Task WP 4.5 of the SPEAR project. A three-dimensional model with ten vertical layers has been set-up. The hydrodynamic model encompasses Xiangshan Bay, which encloses Huangdun Bay.The calibration has at first been conducted for a two-dimensional model, in order to reduce the computation times. Next, the calibrated model has been converted into a three-dimensional model. The hydrodynamic model had to be developed on the basis of incomplete data sets. In particular, for a part of the model area no bathymetry is available. For this area we have guessed the bathymetry contours. Moreover, one water level measurement data set was available and, for example, no current measurements. In such conditions it is not possible to conduct an extensive model calibration. Therefore, only a brief calibration on water levels and salinity has been performed. Despite the data gaps, the model results of the three-dimensional Xiangshan Bay model seem to be more or less realistic. At the available water level measurement location the average (or so-called RMS) error is in the order of 10 cm, which is acceptable. The time evolution of salinity (both in space and time) is reasonable as well. This is the case when compared with the 2005 salinity, which we consider as more representative than the 2003 salinity measurements. In a next phase of the SPEAR project, the hydrodynamic flow fields for the years 2004, 2005 and 2006 will be used as input for water quality modelling.

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References

Fan. A and X. Jin, 1989: Tidal effect on Nutrient exchange in Xiangshan Bay. Marine Chemistry. Vol. 27. pp. 259-281. Huang S., H. Lou, Y. Xie and J. Hu, 2003: Hydrodynamic environment and its effects in the Xiangshan Bay. Int. Conf. on Estuaries and Coast, Hangzhou, China. pp-305 -312. Numes, J.P., 2006: Tidal prediction of Huangdun Bay using Oceanus2000. Centre for Ecological Modelling IMAR, Internal document. January 2006. Ray, R D., 1999: A global ocean tide model from Topex/Poseidon altimetry: GOT99.2, NASA Tech. Memo. 209478, Goddard Space Flight Center, 58 pp., 1999. SPEAR project, 2004: Technical annex 2004.06.06. WL | Delft Hydraulics, 2005: Delft3D-FLOW, A simulation program for hydrodynamic flows and transports in 2 and 3 dimensions. User Manual. Version 3.11. WL | Delft Hydraulics, 2005b: Delft3D-TRIANA, Tidal analysis of FLOW time-constants and comparison with observed constants. User Manual. Version 3.12. WL | Delft Hydraulics, 2006: Water quality modelling for Huangdun Bay. Draft report. February 2007.

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Description of box model for water quality

For water quality modelling in the SPEAR project, IMAR has specified 12 boxes. Water quality simulations will be conducted on the basis of these 12 boxes. In Figure A.1 these boxes are shown. For all cross sections between adjacent boxes we have generated with the hydrodynamic Xiangshan Bay model time series of water fluxes (with an interval of 30 minutes). This has been done for the years 2004, 2005 and 2006.

Figure A.1:

Overview of box model

A.1.1 Distribution of discharges over the 12 boxes


For 274 rivers and creeks daily-averaged discharges have been specified, see file Huangdun_rchFLOW_setfert2_calval2_daily_FINAL.xls (dated September 2006 the 5th) on the SPEAR website. These 274 discharges have been incorporated in the Xiangshan Bay hydrodynamic model. For the box model, it is necessary to know in which boxes the discharges are located. In this section this is described. The order of the EXCEL file provided by IMAR has been applied. For example, the first river has coordinates in UTM (401474, 3299534) or in lat/lon (29,82232, 121,9803). The last one (nr. 274) has coordinates in UTM (347439,8, 3261448) on in latitude/longitude (29,47322, 121,4266). The fluxes through the cross-sections of the box predicted with the hydrodynamic model together with the river/creeks discharges for that box form the water balance and determine the water level in that box.

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NB. If the fluxes between all boxes (except through the open boundaries) are summed for the whole year 2004 and divided by this time period, then we arrive at 37 m3/s, which should be more or less equal to the average river discharge for the whole Huangdun estuary. This is the case, because the total river discharge is on average 30 m3/s. The remaining 7 m3/s is due to the difference in tidal phase for the beginning and the end of the year. The 274 rivers of the SPEAR model are allocated to the boxes as follows (see box numbers in Figure A.1): Box 1: 116 139 Box 2: 109 115, 140 142, 274 Box 3: 87 108 Box 4: 152 165 Box 5: 149 151, 166 - 176 Box 6: 83 86, 143 148, 177 Box 7: 74 82, 178 - 185 Box 8: 61 73, 186 - 191 Box 9: 55 60, 192 - 194 Box 10: 196 253 Box 11: 24 54, 195, 254 - 264 Box 12: 1 23, 265 273

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