IAGA WG 1.

2 on Electromagnetic Induction in the Earth Available at

Proceedings of the 17th Workshop http://www.emindia2004.org
Hyderabad, India, October 18-23, 2004 MTNet: www.geophysics.dias.ie/mtnet/

HIMALAYAN SEISMICITY AND Keywords: seismic gap, seismicity,

neotectonics, active faults, strong earthquakes
PROBABILITY OF FUTURE
EARTHQUAKE

BASUDEO RAI INTRODUCTION

Anomalous changes of physical parameters prior to

The Indian Planetary Society earthquakes have been reported in a variety of
102/404, Gorai Herumb Building, Borivali(W), geological settings from different parts of the world.
Mumbai, India Scholz et al.(1973), Whitcomb et al.(1973), and
email: drbasudeo_rai@yahoo.co.in Mjachkin et al. (1972) summarize many of these
observations. Anomalous changes to preceding
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earthquakes have been reported for apparent seismic
SUMMARY
velocity or travel times, crustal deformations, electrical
Seismicity of the Himalayan region has been
resistivity, b values, magnetic field, groundwater
examined in terms of its relationship with known
chemistry, and water levels in wells.
geological faults and tectonic lineaments. Geophysical
Himalayan seismicity is related to continuing
data obtained from magnetic, gravity, geoelectric and
northward convergence of Indian plate against
seismic methods have been pooled to bring out more
Eurasian plate (Fig.1). Northward movement of India
information on the subsurface structure of the
closed the Tethys Ocean to its north and subsequently
Himalayan region. The co-incidence of the
it colloidal with Asia around 55 million years ago.
conductivity anomaly with a zone of high seismicity
Since this first collision event, Indian plate continues to
suggests that stresses associated with underthrusting of
push northward till present at an average rate of 56 mm
the Indian plate at its collision boundaries with the
per year. Indian –Eurasian plate collision produced
Eurasian plate may cause fracture in the Indian shield
extensive deformation giving rise to the highest
resulting in the up-flow of the asthenosphere material
mountain chain, the Himalayas, and the highest
in the form of a ridge. Telluric changes together with
plateau, Tibet, on our earth. The northward converging
geomorphology indicate that area is seismically very
India induced crustal shortening that is accommodated
active. There are major lineaments and hot water
not only in the formation of the Himalayas and Tibet,
springs in the study area which are indicators of weak
but it is also distributed throughout the Asian crust
zones conductive for seismic activity in the region.
including the region to the far north of Tibetan Plateau.
Seismic data of major earthquakes collected from the
website of the Indian Meteorology Department (IMD)
reveals that most of the epicenters are lying on these
weak zones.
After the four well known great earthquakes, no such
events have occurred in the Himalayan belt. This leads
to a deduction of a potential spatio-temporal seismic
gap associated with high probability of major
earthquakes in this region in the near future. In
particular, telluric changes and significant drop in
Gutenberg-Richter b-value together with the geodetic
data exhibiting crustal shortening are among the salient
factors that lend credence to the hypothesis of a strong
impending earthquake in the region.

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Figure :1
Intracontinental seismicity in recent and
historical past and active tectonics in China, Central
Asia, Mongolia and Siberia are also related to
northward convergence of the Indian plate against the
Eurasian plate. This convergence is also responsible for
building up tectonic stresses and leading to seismic
events within the Peninsular India.
The Kumaun-Garhwal Himalayas including
the north-east parts have been investigated
geophysically earthquake prone zones delineated. The
monograph by Valdiya(1980) is an important source
book for the geology of the area of the lesser Himalaya
of the Kumaun-Garhwal region. Valdiya
(1980,1993,1994) have documented geomorphic and
other geological evidences for neotectonics and even
continuing tectonic deformation in different
longitudinal and transverse segments of the Kumaun-
Garhwal Himalaya. This zone is considered to be one
of the significant seismic gaps (Fig.4 and 5) capable of
produced earthquake of high magnitude. Plate tectonics
theory and seismic gap visualization (Arora et al.,1982;
Khattri and Tyagi,1983; Kaila and Hari Narayan,1976;
Mogi,1986; Nayak et al.,1983 and Singh et al.,1986)
established unique geological setting in the area(Fig.2).
This provinces form a part of large Himalayan thrust
belt and has produced some of the largest and most
energetic earthquakes in the World (Fig.3). A major
seismic gap exists between the rupture zone of the
1905 and 1934 earthquakes( Khattri & Tyagi,1983) and
this gap can be expected to be filled in future with an
earthquake of comparable magnitude.
Regional geophysical studies in this area
brought out several major thrust faults
(Quersy,1969).The Uttarkashi(1991) and Chamoli
earthquake(1999) provide further conformation about
the active or ongoing tectonics of the Garhwal region.
The rupture model proposed by Seeber and Armbruster
(1981), Chander and Gahalaut(1992) and
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Chander(1988) suggest that the detachment under the
NW Garhwal Lesser and Outer Himalaya slipped
during the earthquake. The areas which are seismically
active are to be monitored for detecting stress-induced
changes in geomagnetic( seismomagnetic effects) and
geoelectric parameters that might serve as a valuable
prognostic tools for earthquake prediction.
Since many of the crushed zones are known to
be associated with high conducting zone(Keller,1870;
Combs and Muffler,1972), electrical prospecting and
geomagnetic precursors play an important role in the
mapping of conducting body in this province. Amongst
this group of geophysical methods, the telluric method
has been recognized as a rapid, powerful and less
expensive reconnaissance technique .During the past
one decade, the telluric method has been used as a
regular invaluable geophysical tool in the field
work(Comb and Wilt,1975;Beyer et al.,1975;Long and
Kaufmann,1980).
AIM
The aim of this paper is to assess, by
combining instrumental and macroseismic information,
the location and magnitude of earthquakes in northern
India for a period of 100 years, which gives high
probability of future earthquakes in the area. The
results of different workers are also analyzed and
compared to understand the seismicity and
seismotectonics of the Himalayan region . The changes
in b-value are calculated, which helps to distinguishing
seismically active structures from inactive ones. The
methodology and results of different investigations are
also briefly presented and discussed in this paper.
GENERAL GEOLOGY OF THE AREA
A randomly selected geological map of a
section of the lesser Himalaya showing some of the
mapped faults are illustrated in (Fig.2 and see also
Fig.7). The entire area under investigation is a part of
Kumaun Himalayas (Valdiya,1980).Garwal-Kumaun
Himalayas which exhibits most frequent seismicity
(Fig.3) anywhere in the Himalayan arc and also
displays eloquent evidence of neotectonics movements
along many thrusts and faults(Valdiya,1981) form a
suitable region for telluric experiment. Regional
geophysical studies particularly gravity,
magnetotelluric as well as photogeological studies have
indicated the possible existence of several major faults,
tectonic lineaments and trans-conductor in the region.
The co-seismic activity is also going on. Although
geological mapping in different parts of the Himalaya
is still far from complete, numerous imbricate thrust
faults have been mapped and confirmed.
(Gansser,1961;Valdiya,1980;Wadia,1979).
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TELLURIC DATA
The telluric current method utilizes low
frequency(0.1 to 0.01 hertz) natural source signals and
therefore offers a large depth of investigation without
much difficulty, which is an advantage over other
conventional electrical and electromagnetic(EM)
methods monitoring long-range earthquake related
changes. The source signals measured in the method,
namely the telluric currents, are large regional system
of natural currents that flow in the crustal layers of the
earth and are generated by transient variations of the
geomagnetic field through induction in the conducting
earth. The strength and direction of these regional
currents are influenced by subsurface conductivity
distribution and hence by subsurface lithology and
structure. Telluric field anomalies are directly related
to subsurface conductivity anomalies.
In telluric field survey, the field data
acquisition involves obtaining the simultaneous
recording of telluric signals at a set of field station and
base station. This is carried out by employing at least
two sets of telluric signal sensing equipment with one
set used for occupying field stations the other set kept
fixed at the base station. The data analysis include the
synchronization and computation of telluric field
strength for each station (Berdichiviski,1960;
Yungul,1977; Sankar Narayan et al.,1980). The two
dipole lines at field as well as base stations are oriented
along NS-EW directions so that the north-south and
east-west components of the telluric field are obtained
at each of the stations. This methodology is best suited
for locating conducting zone which may well be a
source of future major earthquakes.
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SUPPORT FROM OTHER GEOPHYSICAL
EVIDENCES
Kaila and Hari Narayan (1976) constructed
seismicity map of the area. This indicates Moradabad
fault which are more active due to high seismicity. In
between Moradabad fault and Hridwar ridge there was
a conductor investigated by workers of Indian Institute
of Geomagnetism (IIG) which may be a probable
potential zone for future earthquakes of higher
magnitude(Arora et al.1987). The area of the
conductivity anomaly investigated by IIG group
characterized by a transverse zone of high seismicity,
which extends from Delhi in south to Kumaun-Nepal
border in the north and is bounded by Delhi-Hardwar
ridge on the North and Moradabad fault on South-East.
This correlation suggests that the discovered
conductivity belt may be associated with present
tectonic activity or with an ancient tectonic structure
,which may be reactivated to produce a major
earthquake in this region in the future. From the point
of view of the seismicity, the conductivity zone has yet
another unique feature. It demarcates a characteristic
the zone where occurrence of weak and moderate
earthquakes are frequent than anywhere else on the
Himalayan arc
(Valdiya,1981;Bhattacharya,1998;Verma and
Sekhar,1982). It has been fortunately devoid of major
earthquake (M>7.0) involving a rupture of a couple of
hundred kilometers along the thrust fault.
Gravity anomaly map of Garhwal region
(Qureshy et al.1974) shows sharp gradient in western
side around Matli, which indicates changes in the
formation. Gravity anomaly are very low near
Joshimath, Badrinath and Harsil area which shows low
density material underlying the crust (Fig.5). Gaur et
al.(1985) discuss about induction arrow near localized
conductive zone at Matli. Induction arrow plot shows
very condensed pattern near Matli (Fig.6).
In fact conductive zone is located in a belt
which is bounded by a rupture of 1905 Kangra and
1934 Bihar earthquakes and further by
Uttarkashi(1991) and Chamoli earthquakes (1999)
.This is identified as a possible seat of a future major
shock. Some investigations (Ambraseys and
Bilham,2000) suggest that the 1905 Kangra
earthquake(M=8.5) occurred by an extended rupture in
a major intracrustal low angle thrust fault dipping
gently under the northwest Himalaya. There was
damage at Tehri during the Kangra earthquake and it
may be extended southeastward from Kangra up to the
vicinity of Tehri. It has been assumed that the next
great earthquake of this region may occur on the
southeast extension of the same fault (Fig 8).
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Fig: 8 (after pandey)
Since it has been well established that
electrical conductivity of crustal materials is
subject to change with dilatency preceding are
impending earthquake, continuous monitoring of
resitivity may provide a means of studying the nature
of stress development. Table 1 shows major
earthquakes that occurred in the area. Tehri dam region
in the Garhwal Himalayas is also a region of possible
future earthquakes. Because the area have already at
least four faults at the depth of 5-12 km, it is likely to
be tectonically loaded and further reactivated to
generate earthquakes which would affect badly in the
valley up to Reshikesh. Due to liquefaction in the
epicentral area the load holding capacity shall also
decrease causing some large landslides.
SEISMICITY AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO
TECTONICS
SEISMICITY AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO TECTONICS
Seismicity maps for the area were modified
considering earthquakes having magnitude 4.0 and
above up to 2003. The data for the preparation of this
map were taken from IMD.
For the purpose of discussing the seismicity
and its relationship to active faults, the entire area has
been divided into the following region.
1) Higher Himalaya
2) Main Central Thrust (MCT)
3) Main Boundary Thrust (MBT)
4) Indo-Gangetic Plains
Higher Himalya
The trend of seismicity in this region is nearly
north south . One major earthquakes is reported in
this area. This earthquakes may be associated with
major fault in this area. Main central thrust (MCT)
and MBT are major fault and these are active fault.
Tehri Dam is very close to this fault and due to
load of Dam water seismicity is more in this area.
Indo- Gangetic Plains have relatively low level of
seismic activity.
17th IAGA WG 1.2 Workshop on Electromagnetic Induction in the Earth
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QUANTITATIVE SEISMICITY OF THE AREA
The most widely used empirical relationship
between magnitude and frequency of occurrence of
earthquake in region, given by Gutenberg and Richter
(1954) is:
Log N = A – bM ----------(1)
Where N is the number of earttquake of magnitude M
or greater than M per unit time and A, b are constants
for the region. Kaila and Harinarayana (1971) have
stressed the need for measuring seismicity in terms of
frequency of earthquakes occurring in a particular
region. This remove the bias in favour of large
magnitude earthquakes. Kaila have found A and b
values for a period of 14 years are linearly related to
each other, by the equation
A=6.36 b-1.00 ------------(2)
We have modified this equation for a period of 50
years and it can be written as
A= 6.35 b – 0.76 --------- (3)
Using eqn. (1) the number of earthquake of magnitude
6 and above for a period of 50 years are found to be
A = 2.67[ LogN(det/D] + 1.23 ----- (4)
b= Log N (det)/ 2.35*D + 0.33 ------ (5)
where N(det) is the number of earthquakes of
Magnitude 6 and above and D is the detectability factor
taken to be 0.76 for Garhwal area. Based on the
number of earthquakes detected, b and A value map of
the area have been prepared (Fig.9 and Fig.10).
CONCLUSION
Our interpretation of geophysical, geological
and other relevant data suggest that interseismic upper
crustal deformation may be localized along shallow
imbricates thrust faults. During a large earthquake in
the region, co-seismic slip along the causative faults
may lead to intense ground motion with large
displacement and high acceleration.
The nature of induction anomalies recorded
through an array of magnetometers in this region
clearly reveal the presence of a localized conductive
belt embedded in a high seismicity belt defined by the
epicentral distribution map of local earthquakes. Four
great earthquakes occurred here in a short span of 53
years. The frequent moderate and great earthquakes
suggest that episodic slippage is continuing. These
ongoing processes also imply that future great
earthquakes can be expected in the unruptured parts of
the Himalayan front. Based on the study of
seismotectonics and seismic history of this region , the
strong possibility of future earthquakes in the “gap”
areas warrant continuous monitoring of seismicity
employing telemetered broadband seismic networks
interfaced with centralized advanced data processing
and archival facility.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT
We thank Dr. J J Rawal, President of The
Indian Planetary Society, for his continuous
encouragement and support. Thanks are also due to
Hemal Shah and Piyus Rawal for their help in
preparation of the diagrams.
REFERENCES
Ambraseys, N. and Bilham, R. (2000). A note on the
Kangra Ms = 7.8 earthquake of 4 April 1905, Curr. Sci,
79(1), 45-48.
Arora, B.R.,1987. Electrical conductivity configuration
at plate collision Boundary of North-West Himalaya;
Proc. Sixth Indian Geological congress, Roorkee,21-
24.
Berdichiviski, M.N.,1965. Electrical prospecting with
the Telluric current method( Translated and edited by
G.V. Keller), Quarterly of the colorado School of
Mines,60,1-208.
Beyer, H., Morrinson, H.F. and Dey, A., 1976.
Electrical exploration of Geothermal system in the
basin and range valleys of Nevada. IIUN Symposium
on the Development and use of Geothermal Resources.
California, USA.,2,889-894.
Bhattacharya, S.N.,1998. A prespective of historical
earthquakes in India and its neighbourhood upto 1900,
Mausam, 49, 375-382.
Combs, J. and Wilt, M.,1976. Telluric mapping,
Telluric profiling and self potential survey of the
Dunes Geothermal Anomaly. Imperial valley,
California, Ibid,2, 917-928.
Combs, J. and Muffler, L.J.P., 1972. Exploration for
geothermal resources in Krugar, P. and Otte, C. eds.,
Geothermal energy resources, Production stimulation:
Stanford Calif., Stanford University Press, 95-128.
Chander, R., 1988. Interpretation of observed ground
level changes due to the 1905 Kangra earthquake,
Northwest Himalya,Tectonophysics, 149,289-298.
Gahalaut, V.K. and Chander, R., 1997 . Evidence for
an earthquake cycle in the NW outer Himalaya near 78
17th IAGA WG 1.2 Workshop on Electromagnetic Induction in the Earth
Hyderabad, India, October 18-23, 2004
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0
E longitude, from precision leveling observatio.
Geophysical Research Letter 24, 225-228.
Gutenberg,B.and Richter, C.F. (1952). Earthquake
magnitude, intensity, energy and acceleration. Bull.
Seis. Soc. Amer. 32, 163- 191
Kaila, K.L. and Narayan, H.,1976. Evolution of the
Himalaya based on seismotectonics and deep seismic
sounding Proc. Himalayan geology seminar, section 1-
B Structure, Tectonics, Seismicity and Evolution, 1-30.
Long, C.L and Kaufman, H.F.,1980. Reconnaissance
geophysics of known geothermal resources area.
Weiser Idaho and Vasc Oregon, Geophysics,45,2, 312
Mjachkin, V.F., et al. 1972. The study of variations in
geophysical fields near focal zones of Kamchatka.
Tectonophysics,14, 287-293.
Singh, B.P., Reddy, C.D. and Arora, B.R.,1986.
Tectonomagnetic experiment in Garhwal Himalaya,
Proc. Int. Symp. Neotectonics in South Asia, Survey of
India, Dehradoon, 11, PP.68-80.
Seeber, L. and Armbruster, J.G.,1981. Earthquake
prediction An International review, American
Geophysical Union, Washington, DC,4, 259-277.
Scholz, et al.,1973.Earthquakes prediction: A physical
basis, Science,181,803-810.
Valdiya, K.S.,1980. Geology of Kumaun Lesser
Himalaya, Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology.
Dehradoon, India, 291.
Valdiya, K.S., 1981. Zagros- Hidukush-Himalaya:
Geodynamic Evolution(eds Delany, F.M. and Gupta,
H.K.), American Geophysical Union, Washington D.C,
PP87-110.
Valdiya, K.S., 1993. Earthquake hazard and large
Dams in the Himalaya (ed. Gaur,V.K.),INTACHI, New
Delhi, 1-34.
Verma, R.K. and Chandrasekher, CH.,1982. Seismicity
of Pakistan and its relationship to Fault and
Lineaments, Geophysical Research Bulletin,21,3, 209-
223.
Wadia, D.N., 1979. Geology of India Tata mcGrawHill
Publishing Co., New Delhi, India.
Yungul, S. H., 1977. The Telluric method in the study
of Sedimentary structure, A survey,
Geoexploration,15,207-238.
Whitcomb et al.1973.Earthquakes prediction: Variation
of seismic velocities before The San Fernando
earthquake, Science, 180, 632.
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Table:1 Very large earthquakes in Himalayan re with their magnitudes given in parentheses

Sl. No. Place Year

1. Shillong(8.7) 1897
2. Kangara(8.0) 1905
3. Bihar-Nepal(8.3) 1934
4. Arunachal 1950
Pradesh(8.6)
5. Uttar Kasi(6.6) 1991
6. Chamoli(6.8) 1999

Figure : 3

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Figure 4: Hatches shown in figure (Green colour) are probable area of

epicenter

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Figure:7

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100

95

90

85

80

75

70

65

60
20 25 30 35 40

Figure: 9 (b-value map of the study area)

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100

95

90

85

80

75

70

65

60
20 25 30 35 40

Fig. 10 A- value map of the study area

Caption:
Fig.1 Movement of Indian plate towards Eurasian plate
Fig.2 A randomly selected geological map of a section of N-W Lesser Himalaya (after Valdya)
Fig.3 Seismicity map of India (modified from IMD website)
Fig.4 Showing seismic gap and epicenter of future earthquake
Fig.5 Gravity anomaly map of Garhwal Himalyas (after Qureshy et al. 1974)
Fig.6 Contour plot of real part of the Induction arrow near localized conductive zone(after Gaur et al. 1985)
Fig.7 Tectonic map of India with epicenter of large earthquakes (modified from ASC website)
Fig.8 Showing area affected by Kangra and Nepal-Bihar earthquakes
Fig.9 b-value map of the study area
Fig.10 A-value map of the study area

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