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May 6, 2011
Canara Bank
Performance Highlights
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 4QFY11 1,973 1,695 899 3QFY11 2,119 1,513 1,106 % chg (qoq) (6.9) 12.0 (18.7) 4QFY10 1,598 1,430 503 % chg (yoy) 23.5 18.5 78.7
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking 25,680 1.0 844/345 1,16,112 10 18,519 5,551 CNBK.BO CBK@IN
`580 -
For 4QFY2011, Canara Bank posted a disappointing set of results with high slippages and a sharp decline in reported NIM on a sequential basis. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock due to its weak liability franchise and persistently high slippages. Healthy business growth but NIM and high slippages disappoint: Business momentum during 4QFY2011 was healthy, with advances and deposits growing by 11.9% qoq (25.5% yoy) and 11.6% qoq (25.3% yoy), respectively. Saving deposits were flat sequentially; and on a yoy basis, growth moderated to 17.5% yoy from 27.5% yoy in 3QFY2011. Due to year-end surge in current account deposits, the bank was able to sustain its reported CASA ratio above 30%. Reported NIM fell by ~30bp qoq to 2.99% due to a sharp rise in cost of funds. During FY2011, the bank took a hit of `890cr towards second pension option liability and `138cr towards enhancement of gratuity limits. Slippages ratio for the quarter was high at 4.4% compared to 1.2% in 3QFY2011 and 1.3% in 9MFY2011. The sharp rise in slippages can be partly attributed to switchover to system-based NPA recognition for accounts above `10lakhs. There were no major chunky accounts in slippages, as accounts above `1cr, which slipped into NPAs during 4QFY2011, accounted for only `350cr out of the total slippages of over `1,800cr. However, recoveries picked up sharply both on a qoq as well as yoy basis, which aided the bank in containing gross NPA ratio at 1.5%. The provision coverage ratio including technical write-offs declined by ~300bp qoq to 73.0%. Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.1x FY2013E ABV of `531.1 compared to its five-year range of 0.81.4x with a median of 1.2x. Taking into account the persistently high slippages and expected NIM pressures, we believe the stock is fairly priced near its five-year median trading multiple. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 67.7 11.5 15.0 5.8
3m 2.8 3.1
FY2010 5,681 20.4 3,021 45.8 2.4 73.7 7.9 2.1 1.2 26.8
FY2011 7,823 37.7 4,026 33.2 2.7 90.9 6.4 1.4 1.3 26.4
FY2012E 8,422 7.7 4,020 (0.1) 2.4 90.7 6.4 1.2 1.1 20.6
FY2013E 9,211 9.4 3,978 (1.0) 2.2 89.8 6.5 1.1 0.9 17.6
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
4QFY11 3QFY11 % chg (qoq) 4QFY10 % chg (yoy) 6,418 4,823 1,521 73 1 4,445 1,973 933 951 249 (18) 327 375 2,906 1,211 783 428 1,695 546 541 5 1,149 250 899 21.8 5,908 4,326 1,531 51 0 3,789 2,119 537 508 169 29 72 267 2,656 1,143 784 359 1,513 157 130 27 1,356 250 1,106 18.4 8.6 11.5 (0.6) 42.5 544.4 17.3 (6.9) 73.8 87.3 47.3 NA 354.2 40.6 9.4 6.0 (0.2) 19.3 12.0 247.1 316.2 (81.8) (15.3) (18.7) 332bp 4,797 3,545 1,180 54 17 3,199 1,598 710 596 213 114 149 234 2,308 877 498 379 1,430 727 596 131 703 200 503 28.4 33.8 36.0 28.9 34.4 (96.6) 38.9 23.5 31.4 59.5 16.9 NA 119.5 60.1 25.9 38.0 57.1 13.0 18.5 (24.9) (9.2) (96.2) 63.4 25.0 78.7 (669)bp
May 6, 2011
4QFY11
3QFY11
% chg (qoq)
4QFY10 % chg (yoy) 25.5 25.3 11bp 33.3 17.5 21.8 45bp 195bp 233bp (3)bp 366bp 19.3 (7)bp 30.4 5bp (471)bp 254bp (26)bp
212,467 189,882 293,973 263,497 72.3 24,500 58,617 83,117 30.3 15.4 10.9 2.6 41.7 3,089 1.5 2,347 1.1 73.0 4.4 0.7 72.1 17,938 58,558 76,496 30.5 13.0 8.3 3.0 43.0 2,753 1.4 1,991 1.1 75.9 1.2 0.2
11.9 169,335 11.6 234,651 21bp 36.6 0.1 8.7 (20)bp 236bp 260bp (43)bp (136)bp 12.2 1bp 17.9 6bp (292)bp 313bp 50bp 72.2 18,386 49,875 68,261 29.9 13.4 8.5 2.6 38.0 2,590 1.5 1,800 1.1 77.7 1.8 0.9
70.0
14.9 11.7
11.9 11.6
29.1
29.0
28.9
29.0
2.6 1.8
1.3 4.3
7.8 5.7
3.0 -
28.3
26.0
7.0 -
On the deposits side, saving deposits were flat sequentially and their growth moderated to 17.5% yoy from 27.5% yoy in 3QFY2011. However, the bank was
May 6, 2011
able to sustain its reported CASA ratio at ~30% levels on a yoy basis due to 33.3% yoy growth in current account deposits.
3QFY11 % chg (qoq) 27,056 35,348 98,529 28,949 9.6 6.6 15.3 9.1
4QFY10 % chg (yoy) 25,052 31,074 87,504 25,705 18.4 21.3 29.8 22.8 25.5
212,467 189,882
11.9 169,335
Reported NIM for the quarter slipped by ~30bp qoq to 2.99% due to rising cost of funds for the system as a whole and the banks relatively weak liability franchise. Due to a lower CASA base, the banks reliance on bulk deposits and certificate of deposits (CDs) is relatively on the higher side, at ~24.5% of total deposits. Management is confident of maintaining NIM over 3% for FY2012. However, on a conservative basis, we are building in a ~30bp decline in NIM for FY2012 and a ~15bp further fall for FY2013, considering the higher interest rate regime and the relatively weak liability franchise of the bank.
Strong traction in fee income sequentially on the back of revision in charges; recoveries also pick up sharply
Fee income showed healthy 47.3% qoq growth as the bank had revised charges across the board in January 2011. However, on a yoy basis fee income growth (16.9%) continued to lag loan growth (25.5%). Recoveries from written-off accounts witnessed a sharp pick-up both on a sequential (up 354.2%) and yoy basis (up 119.5%) to `327cr. For FY2011 as a whole, recoveries from written-off accounts rose by 36.7% to `555cr. For FY2012, management is confident of achieving even higher recoveries on the back of technically written-off account pool of over `5,000cr.
4QFY11 3QFY11 249 (18) 327 375 933 951 169 29 72 267 537 508
% chg (qoq) 4QFY10 47.3 NA 354.2 40.6 73.8 87.3 213 114 149 234 710 596
Slippages jump up
Slippages for the quarter rose substantially to over `1,800cr from aggregate slippages of `1,670cr in 9MFY2011. Slippages were abnormally high, as slippages from accounts over `1cr constituted for only ~`350cr. The rise in slippages can be partly attributed to switching to system-based NPA recognition for
May 6, 2011
accounts above `10lakhs. However, on account of strong recoveries of over `800cr during the quarter, the bank was able to contain the gross NPA ratio at 1.5%. Provision coverage ratio including technical write-offs declined to 73.0% from 75.9% in 3QFY2011.
2.2
1.2
1.5
1.2
4.4
1.5 1.1
1.5 1.0
1.5 1.1
1.4 1.1
1.5 1.1
70.0 1.5
1.0
0.2
Restructured advances declined by ~`670cr during the quarter; ~`550cr was reduction on account of rectification of double counting earlier and ~`150cr was deduction due to technicalities.
3,046
38.0
39.7
43.4
43.0
34.0
May 6, 2011
41.7
36.0
Investment concerns
Weak liability franchise likely to accentuate NIM pressures
The bank has a relatively weaker liability profile with a calculated CASA base of sub-30% at 28.3%. In fact, in 4QFY2011, saving deposits were flat sequentially; on a yoy basis, their growth moderated to 17.5% from 27.5% in 3QFY2011. Even the relatively low CASA ratio as of 4QFY2011 was aided by year-end surge (36.6% qoq) in the more volatile current account deposits. The bank has a relatively higher proportion of more costly bulk deposits and CDs at ~25% of deposits, which makes the bank more vulnerable to faster rise in cost of funds in the current rising interest rate scenario. Margin pressures were evident from the ~30bp sequential NIM reduction in 4QFY2011. Accordingly, we are building in a ~30bp decline in NIM for FY2012 and a further ~15bp fall in FY2013.
May 6, 2011
Earlier estimates FY2012 19.0 20.0 28.4 2.7 15.5 22.0 18.0 1.6 0.2 FY2013 19.0 20.0 26.9 2.6 17.4 15.0 16.0 1.4 0.2
Revised estimates FY2012 20.0 18.0 27.3 2.4 12.7 (2.5) 15.0 1.9 0.2 FY2013 20.0 17.0 26.6 2.2 17.8 15.0 15.0 1.9 0.2
FY2013 Earlier estimates 10,574 3,263 13,837 6,071 7,766 1,385 6,381 2,070 4,311 Revised Var. (%) estimates 9,211 (12.9) 3,589 12,800 5,250 7,550 1,662 5,889 1,911 3,978 10.0 (7.5) (13.5) (2.8) 20.0 (7.7) (7.7) (7.7)
Earlier estimates 9,099 2,778 11,877 5,264 6,613 942 5,671 1,560 4,112
Revised Var. (%) estimates 8,422 (7.4) 3,047 11,470 4,565 6,905 1,545 5,360 1,340 4,020 9.7 (3.4) (13.3) 4.4 64.0 (5.5) (14.1) (2.2)
Dec-02
Aug-04
Aug-07
Dec-10
Apr-06
Apr-09
Jul-10
Oct-03
Feb-10
Oct-11
Mar-04
Mar-07
Nov-05
Nov-08
May-03
May 6, 2011
May-11
Mar-12
Sep-06
Sep-09
Jun-05
Jan-05
Jan-08
Jun-08
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
May 6, 2011
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY08 3,538 (12.1) 2,308 52.7 5,846 5.6 2,791 8.8 3,055 2.7 1,150 (11.7) 1,905 14.0 340 17.8 1,565 10.1 FY09 4,718 33.4 2,427 5.1 7,145 22.2 3,065 9.8 4,080 33.5 1,507 31.1 2,572 35.0 500 19.4 2,072 32.4 FY10 5,681 20.4 3,001 23.6 8,681 21.5 3,478 13.5 5,204 27.6 1,382 (8.3) 3,821 48.6 800 20.9 3,021 45.8 FY11 7,823 37.7 2,703 (9.9) 10,526 21.3 4,419 27.1 6,107 17.4 1,081 (21.8) 5,026 31.5 1,000 19.9 4,026 33.2 FY12E 8,422 7.7 3,047 12.7 11,470 9.0 4,565 3.3 6,905 13.1 1,545 42.9 5,360 6.6 1,340 25.0 4,020 (0.1) FY13E 9,211 9.4 3,589 17.8 12,800 11.6 5,250 15.0 7,550 9.4 1,662 7.6 5,889 9.9 1,911 32.4 3,978 (1.0)
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserve & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 410 10,090 154,072 8.2 2,517 6,115 7,175 180,380 13,365 4,513 49,812 107,238 8.9 2,917 2,536 180,380 8.8 FY09 410 11,798 186,893 21.3 7,057 6,944 6,498 219,599 10,037 6,623 57,777 138,219 28.9 2,929 4,014 219,599 21.7 FY10 410 14,262 234,651 25.6 1,041 7,399 6,944 264,708 15,719 3,934 69,677 169,335 22.5 2,859 3,184 264,708 20.5 FY11 443 19,597 293,973 25.3 4,977 9,284 7,805 336,079 22,015 8,693 83,700 212,467 25.5 2,844 6,359 336,079 27.0 FY12E 443 22,742 346,888 18.0 5,873 11,141 9,486 396,573 22,548 10,258 98,047 254,961 20.0 3,256 7,504 396,573 18.0 FY13E 443 25,844 405,859 17.0 6,872 13,369 11,603 463,990 26,381 12,002 107,180 305,953 20.0 3,695 8,779 463,990 17.0
May 6, 2011
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.0 0.7 1.4 0.3 1.6 1.1 2.7 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.9 21.1 19.1 2.4 0.8 1.6 0.3 1.9 0.9 2.8 1.5 1.3 0.3 1.0 21.8 22.6 2.3 0.6 1.8 0.4 2.1 0.9 3.0 1.4 1.6 0.3 1.2 21.4 26.8 2.6 0.4 2.2 0.1 2.3 0.8 3.1 1.5 1.7 0.3 1.3 19.7 26.4 2.3 0.4 1.9 0.0 1.9 0.8 2.7 1.2 1.5 0.4 1.1 18.8 20.6 2.1 0.4 1.8 0.0 1.8 0.8 2.6 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.9 19.0 17.6 15.2 3.1 1.4 11.5 2.6 1.4 7.9 2.1 1.7 6.4 1.4 1.9 6.4 1.2 2.9 6.5 1.1 2.9 38.2 188.4 8.0 50.5 221.3 8.0 73.7 277.7 10.0 90.9 400.3 11.0 90.7 468.2 17.0 89.8 531.1 17.0 1.3 0.9 1.4 0.5 34.5 1.6 1.1 2.2 0.5 30.5 1.5 1.1 2.4 0.6 77.7 1.4 1.1 2.1 0.3 73.0 2.1 1.1 1.9 0.3 72.0 2.6 1.2 1.9 0.3 70.0 31.5 69.6 13.3 7.0 30.1 74.0 13.0 7.4 29.1 72.2 12.5 7.9 28.3 72.3 15.4 10.9 27.3 73.5 13.2 8.6 26.6 75.4 13.2 8.5 2.1 47.7 0.9 19.1 2.4 42.9 1.0 22.6 2.4 40.1 1.2 26.8 2.7 42.0 1.3 26.4 2.4 39.8 1.1 20.6 2.2 41.0 0.9 17.6 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
May 6, 2011
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Canara Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
May 6, 2011
11