Daily Market Technicals

FX Outlook

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011

EUR/USD focus on downside.

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily EUR/USD Chart
Comment: EUR/USD came back under pressure on Thursday. It has failed at the 55 day ma and cloud resistance at 1.4369 today but has so far held the 1.4108 support. While we would allow for further near term consolidation, our bias is for failure. Short term targets are the 200 week ma at 1.4014, the 1.3968 recent low and the 200 day ma at 1.3854. A close below this zone of support would be extremely negative and target the 1.3530/90 region (55 week ma and the 2010-2011 uptrend) as a minimum. Above 1.4369 lies the 1.4500/79 zone, which we look to cap the market (6 week downtrend). Key resistance remains 1.4732, the 78.6% retracement. Our outlook remains short to medium term negative below there. Todays trade: Short 1.4500, stops 1.4500. Cover 1.4015. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Risk shifted to downside, target 1.4010. Medium term (1-3 months): To remain below the 1.50/1.5145 region. Support line at 1.4108 Resistance line at 1.4579 Current Price: 1.4263

Support 1.4108* 1.4048 1.4021* 1.4014** 1.3968**

Reason Support line 16th May low th 28 Mar low 200 week ma May low

Resistance 1.4369 1.4442 1.4460 1.4500* 1.4520

Reason Cloud Minor Fibo 14 June high Early April high

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011

US dollar Index weekly chart

The 2010-2011 downtrend at 75.83 is in jeopardy

Market is pushing hard into the 75.83 downtrend, todays price action is therefore key. A close above this level today will represent the weekly close and add weight to the idea that the US dollar is ready to break higher.

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011

USD/CHF Support .8350/27 holding

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily USD/CHF Chart
Comment: USD/CHF no change, the market has recently spiked down to .8340 and recovered and we continue to suspect it is trying to base. It has tough near term resistance at .8547/54 (early May low and the 31st of May high) and again at .8614, the channel these must be overcome for a recovery to become viable. Resistance lies at .8614 Below .8327 will trigger a slide to .8222/00. This is the location of TD support (Tom de Mark support) and point and figure target. Both imply that this is now the end stage of the downmove. We note the divergence of the daily RSI and this does depict a loss of downside momentum, but are unable to rule out one more stab on the downside. Todays trade: Long .8440, add on dips to .8340 and place stops below 8325. Cover .8600. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): .8351 target has been reached, reversal expected. Medium term (1-3 months): Target at .8400-.8351 has been met, look for signs of stabilisation, below here targets .8200/.8143.
Support .8350** .8340 .8327** .8222 .8200 Reason 8Y channel line Recent low TD support P&F target Resistance .8457, .8554* .8615** .8680* .8852** .8895 Reason Early May low Downtrend chan. 55 dma March low th 24 May high

Current Price: 0.8382

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011

GBP/USD Held the 1.5957 May low allow for near term consolidation
Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily GBP/USD Chart
Comment: GBP/USD has sold off to and held the 1.5937 March low and we would allow for some near term consolidation ahead of further losses. Iinitial target is the 1.5831 55 week moving average then 1.5510/00. Rallies will intraday resistance at 1.6080, 1.6140 and should now be contained by 1.6265. Todays trade: Short average 1.6170, add 1.6200, stops 1.6385. Cover 1.5835 Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Market has failed at trend line, look for slide back to 1.6058/54. Medium term (1-3 months): Neutral to negative looking for 1.7050 to hold the topside. Resistance line at 1.6392 Current Price: 1.6044

Held the 1.5937 May low

Support 1.5937** 1.5831** 1.5891* 1.5752** 1.5708/00** Reason March low 55 week ma Fibo th 25 January low Oct 2009 low Resistance 1.6080 1.6140,1.6200 1.6260/62** 1.6347 1.6383** Reason Minor Fibo This wk high 55 dma 2 month RL

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011

USD/JPY looking perkier

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily USD/JPY Chart
Comment: USD/JPY is inching slowly higher and will shortly encounter last weeks high at 81.08 this will give a good near term barometer of sentiment. A break through here will suggest the run up towards 81.83/82.28, the 55 and 200 day ma, which in turn guards the 2007-2011 downtrend at 83.52. Support lies at 80.05 ahead of the 79.79/57 support area (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-April advance and May low). Failure to hold over 79.57 will target the 78.25/78.6% retracement of the move up from the March spike low. Todays trade: Long 80.20, add 79.80 and place stops below 79.50. Partially cover 82.20 and cover the remainder 83.25. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Looking for current correction lower to stabilise around the 80.00 level. Medium term (1-3 month): Look for a recovery to the downtrend at 84.02. This will act as the break point to the April high at 85.53, then 87.55 en route to 94.50 (inter-year target). Current Price: 80.50

Support 80.00* 79.92** 79.79* 79.57** 78.24*

Reason Psych. support 1995 low 61.8% Fibo May low Fibo

Resistance 81.08* 81.83* 82.21/23** 82.28* 83.30**

Reason Wednesday high 55 dma May high 200 dma March high

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011

EUR/JPY Again holds the 200 day ma at 113.95

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily EUR/JPY Chart
Comment: EUR/JPY has sold off and again held the 200 day ma at 116.95. It is sidelined near term but with 2 resistance lines and the 55 day ma over head the risk is on the downside. Focus is the 200 day ma at 113.95, the 55 week moving average at 113.05 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 112.93. Failure at 112.90 will target 110.10, the 78.6% retracement of the rally higher from the spike low. Key resistance is the downtrend and moving average at 117.18/27. Initial resistance line is 116.21, these are tough hurdles and while capped here the near term risk will remain for a break lower. Todays trade: Longs from 114.00/113.75, partially covered 115.00. Leave stops below 113.40 and cover remaining longs 115.50/80. Re-sell stops over 116.25 Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Stalling at 55 dma low for retest of 200 dma. Medium term (1-3 months): Based at 106.50/105.45. Targets 123.33, then 130.00.
Support 113.95** 113.40** 113.05** 112.93** 111.95 Reason 200 dma May low 55 wma 61.8% Fibonacci th 28 Feb low
th

Current Price: 114.81

Resistance line at 117.18 Resistance line at 116.20

200 day moving average is at 113.95

Resistance 116.00 116.21 117.25 117.27* 117.18**

Reason Mar high 2 month line th 19 May high 55 dma Resistance line

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011

EUR/GBP stalled on initial test of 2 month resistance line

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily EUR/GBP Chart
Comment: EUR/GBP has reacted lower from the resistance line at .8944, with this resistance line reinforced by the top of its 2 year channel resistance at .8985, the near term risk is for a fall back. We would allow for a set back to .8817/.8768, but provided the recent low at .8723 is not violated, it will remain well placed for upside attempt. Slightly longer term while above .8723, the risk will remain for a reattempt on the topside to .9042 and then .9140/48 (2010 high and long term Fibo) Todays trade: Holding shorts from .8945 stops over .8985. Partially cover .8880, looking to reverse on dips to .8770 stops below .8720. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Neutral. Medium term (1-3 months): Targets the .9042 May high. Current Price: .8905

Resistance line at .8944

Support .8817 .8768 .87235* .8675** .8681*

Reason 55 day ma Supp line Last wk low th 12 May low 4 month SL

Resistance .8944** .8950** .8977** .8985** .9000**

Reason Resist line Fibo th 8 June high channel Psych. resistance

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011

EUR/GBP approaching top of 2 year channel at .8985

Channel at .8985

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011

EUR/CHF in new lows. Holding base of 9 month channel

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:
Daily EUR/CHF Chart
Comment: EUR/CHF has sold off into new lows, spiking down to the base of a 9 month channel at 118.27 and recovering. We would allow for yet another rebound towards 1.2136/42 (55 day ma and channel), but while capped here the market will remain directly offered. We have point and figure targets at 1.1790 and using the 1.24-1.32 consolidation to predict lower implies losses to 1.1600. Todays trade: Shorts from 1.2125 covered 1.1950. Resell on rallies to 1.2050, 1.2100, stops 1.2250. Cover 1.1830. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Negative bias while capped by downtrend channel. Medium term (1-3 months): Targets 1.1950, scope for 1.1795/00. 1.2136 Current Price 1.1953

Base of 9 month channel is 1.1827

Support Reason Resistance 1.2053 1.2142** 1.2136** 1.2250** 1.2398/1.2404* Reason 55 day ma Channel RL downtr Current June high

1.1905, 1.1882/63 1.1827** channel 1.1795* P&F targets 1.1700 1.1600 Meas target

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011

Other technical analysis reports we publish are:

Monday: Tuesday: Wednesday: Thursday: Friday: Fixed Income Weekly Technicals. FX Emerging Markets Technicals, Strategic Technical Themes; Bullion Weekly Technicals; Commodity Weekly & Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals;

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011

Explanation:

This technical analysis report is based primarily on Dow theory and is using bar and candlestick charts. Support and resistance levels with no asterisk denote minor levels. One asterisk denotes an area of reasonable support or resistance, two stars are for strong areas of support or resistance. Uptr = Uptrend, connecting 3 low points. SL = Support line. Support lines have only 2 points of contact and are not as important as uptrends. Dtr= Downtrend, connecting 3 high points. RL = Resistance line. Resistance lines connect only 2 high points and are not as important as downtrends. Fibo = Fibonacci retracement we use the 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% levels. Fibox = Fibonacci extension we use the 61.8%, 78.6%, 100%, 138.2%, 161.8% and 261.8% levels. Pivot point = an area on the chart which acts as both support and resistance. St = Short term level (for example St Fibonacci retracement refers to the nearest highs and lows) Lt = Long term level (for example Lt Fibonacci retracement refers to longer term highs and lows) 55 dma = 55 day (simple) moving average 200 wma = 200 week (simple) moving average

Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011

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Disclaimer
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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011

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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011

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Karen Jones
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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 24 June 2011