AGRI

Market

Global Research Limited

Week : June 27th to 02nd July 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Pulses Resume Uptrend On Fresh Buying Sentiments

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Week : June 27th to 02nd July 2011

Week : June 27th to 02nd July 2011

J E E R A ( J U LY )

G U A R S E E D ( J U LY )

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

JEERA TUMBLES ON WEAK EXPORT DEMAND

Expert
Opinion

GUARSEED SETTLES HIGHER ON WEATHER CONCERNS

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Jeera futures resumed down trend after witnessing a small recovery in the last week. Futures after witnessing a small recovery again reversed the trend towards the down side. Poor domestic and export demand further added to the down side and futures ended the week on a negative note. The bearish trend in Jeera futures is forecast to continue follow through selling, next week. Weak trend due to prevailing sluggish domestic and export demand is likely to weigh on prices. Arrivals at spot market of Unjha were reported around 5,000-6000 bags (Each bag= 55Kg.). According to trade sources, cumin production in Syria and Turkey are expected around 40,000 and 15,000 MT. According to derivative analysis, prices and open interest have come down while volumes have increased. It indicates that market is running out of traders willing to open or hold an open long/buy. According to derivative analysis, prices have declined while volumes and open interest has increased. It is a good indication that that new money is coming into the market, showing aggressive new short selling. This scenario will prove out a continuation of a downtrend.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Guar seed and gum futures ended on a positive note after initial downside opening on last week. The spot price rose substantially to Rs.3450 against Rs.3380 per quintal. Traders took advantage of earlier gains for selling at higher price levels which led the prices to decline during the initial sessions. However, the concerns about the delay and below normal monsoon this year had an impact over the market sentiments supporting the prices to end the week in green. Guar seed and gum futures are expected to decline for the next week. The traders might take advantage of substantial rise in prices this week and might go for selling. The earlier gains are likely prompt the traders to go for profit booking which might lead the prices to fall during the next week. However, the projections about delay and below normal monsoon might extend its impact over market sentiments. Concerns about the shift in acreage from Guar to Castor seed and cotton might support the prices to recover. The monsoon prospects might bother the Guar growers in Pakistan which is likely to have an impact over the Indian market sentiments. According to derivative analysis, the increase in price, open interest and decline in volume indicates the chances of correction.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Weak export demand High arrivals

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Jeera did our target of 14300 above the level of 14100, and was even sustaining at higher levels. Last week initially Jeera maintained its bearish trend but on the last day of the week we saw good short covering coming at lower levels. For the next week Jeera has resistance at 14470 and support at 13900.

STRATEGY
Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one should use the strategy of sell on higher levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains below the level of 13900 then we can expect the level of 13700, and if it sustains above 14470 then we can see the level of 14650.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Weather concerns Early monsoon expected

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Guarseed did our target of 3400 above the level of 3370 and even closed above it. Last week Guarseed broke its important resistance of 3360 and after that we saw good buying coming for most part of the week. For the next week Guarseed has resistance at 3560 and support at 3440.

STRATEGY
For next week in Guar seed traders should go for buying at lower levels strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the level of 3560 we can see the level of 3600, and below 3440 it can touch the level of 3400.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 15480 14770 14520 14060 13810 13350 12640

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 3973 3716 3621 3459 3364 3202 2945

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Weekly Chart

Week : June 27th to 02nd July 2011

Week : June 27th to 02nd July 2011

SOYABEAN ( J U LY )

C H A N A ( J U LY )

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

SOYBEAN REGAINS ON SHORT COVERING

Expert
Opinion

CHANA ENDS HIGHER ON FRESH BUYING

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
NCDEX Soybean futures recovered from the fall in the last week. Traders were buying as the Indian futures prices also had touched the low levels. However spot market activities were very sluggish which restricted any steep price movement towards the upside. The sowing prospects are good as monsoon is progressing well which is weighing on the markets sentiments. NCDEX Soy bean futures are projected to extend the recovery mode for the next week. Lower prices which prevailed at futures platform has prompted some buying which might continue for some days. However, overall trend is more biased towards down side. In major Soybean growing regions in India monsoon has been spreading quiet well. The traders are expecting normal acreage as on last year. However, solvent extractors association is forecasting higher oil seeds output during next oil year (Nov'11-Oct'12). Some nominal demand for meal might come up as China is looking forward for direct import of meal as domestic crushing margin is lower. USDA crop planting status is much similar to the last year at 94% planting; 1% higher. The flooded situation in Mississippi regions might restrict further planting and result in slightly lower acreage than last year. Water logged conditions are also creating concerns about the crop emerging which supported recovery at CBOT.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Chana prices continued to trade firm and settled 0.61% higher on Thursday owing to buying by the local stockists. However, Futures witnessed long liquidation at the resistance levels and settled 0.59% lower. Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are the main Kharif pulses producing states. Indian Metrological department (IMD) has initially forecasted a normal monsoon for 2011 season. However, on 21st June, 2011, IMD has released a second Long Range Forecast wherein it has predicted monsoon to be below normal i.e only 95% of the Long Period Average. Also, in the peak growing period, of July and August, IMD has predicted monsoon to be 93% of LPA. In Central India and South Peninsula (Kharif Pulses producing regions) monsoon are expected to be 95% of the LPA. Area under Chickpeas in Australia during 2011-12 is forecasted to be lower by 44.50% to 3.03 lakh hectares but adequate rainfall in the month of May has raised hopes of better yield. We expect Chana prices to remain bullish in the short term owing to buying by the local stockists amidst reduced arrivals. As, specified earlier, Chana prices follows a seasonality pattern, wherein Prices generally bottom out in April, and starts recovering May onwards and continues till July- August. From July onwards, Prices will also takes cues from the sowing progress of Kharif Pulses mainly Tur and Urad and monsoon progress over the major Pulses growing areas. The current predictions with respect to monsoon and sowing acreage point towards downward rejections of Kharif output which may provide support to the prices. Chana Prices may gain by Rs. 150-200 from the current levels.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Short covering Lower level buying

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Soybean did our target of 2330 above the level of 2305 but price was not able to sustain at higher levels. Last week Soybean was initially bullish but in the later part of the week we saw good selling coming at higher levels and it erased all its previous gains. For the next week Soybean has resistance at 2345 and support at 2250.

STRATEGY
: Soybean is moving in a downward phase on charts and one should look for selling opportunities at higher levels, if Soybean sustains below the level of 2250 we can see the level of 2225, and on the upside if it sustains above the level of 2345 we can see Soybean at 2370 level.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Fresh buying Weather concerns

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Chana did our target of 2700 above the level of 2660 and even closed above it. Chana was in a bullish trend for most part of the previous week and we saw good buying coming at lower levels. For the next week Chana has resistance at 2765 and support at 2660.

STRATEGY
Overall trend of Chana is consolidated and one should go for buying at lower levels strategy in it. For the coming week if Chana sustains above 2765 level we can see it at 2800 and below 2660 we can expect the level of 26300.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 2468 2383 2338 2298 2253 2213 2128

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 2953 2829 2787 2629 2705 2581 2457

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Weekly Chart

Week : June 27th to 02nd July 2011

Week : June 27th to 02nd July 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA PPRMLGKOC TMCFGRNZM GARSEDJDR GARGUMJDR CHARJDDEL SYBEANIDR SYOREFIDR RMSEEDJPR COCUDAKL GURCHMUZR POTATO KAPASSRNR WHTSMQDELI MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX MCX MCX

20 JUL -11 20-JULY-11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 20-JUL- 11 20 JUL -11 30-APR-12 20 JUL -11 30-JUNE-11 15- JULY-11

Jeera Pepper Turmeric Guarseed Guargum Chana Soybean Soy Oil Refined Rape Mustard Seed Cotton Seed Oil Cake Gur Potato Kapas Wheat Mentha oil Cardamom

RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/10KGS RS/20KGS RS/QUINTAL RS/40KGS RS/QUINTAL RS./20KG RS/QUINTAL RS/KG RS/KG

13936 29151 7392 3316 10424 2644 2273 635 2854 1127 981.5 403.9 655.6 1173 860.9 814.7

13936 29081 7368 3315 10401 2640 2270 637.4 2864 1123 983 406 651.2 1170.6 865.5 819.9

14310 30600 7950 3554 11100 2748 2343 645.7 2912 1167 998.5 430 689.5 1180.8 884.3 886.9

13600 27200 7156 3297 10355 2624 2258 632.2 2851 1115 978.5 404.1 630.1 1162.4 825.2 813.2

14270 27400 7860 3526 10963 2745 2294 637.95 2886 1132 981.5 420.5 685.5 1168.8 859.2 868.3

37551 59901 25995 1020040 78115 778600 396630 783660 456090 261780 23930 56745 10136 21300 10855 14940

334 -1751 468 210 539 101 21 2.95 32 5 0 16.6 29.9 -4.2 -1.7 53.6

14994 7165 8360 202290 13265 215660 84640 110030 178870 60420 10470 18750 2841 32750 1104 1948

43,071.25 145,037.34 14,927.79 294,431.36 72,650.71 179,981.74 86,703.35 463,791.08 121,251.57 26,649.83 5,224.57 2,199.28 11,053.05 2,177.68 32890.44 12514.32
* Turnover Till Friday

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Week : June 27th to 02nd July 2011

Week : June 27th to 02nd July 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Weekly Pivots

Exchange
NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX

Commodity
JEERA PEPPER TURMERIC GUARSEED GUARGUM CHANA SOYBEAN SOY OIL REFINED RAPE MUSTARD SEED COTTONSEED OIL CAKE GUR POTATO KAPAS WHEAT MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

Closing Price
14270 27400 7860 3526 10963 2745 2294 637.95 2886 1132 981.5 420.5 685.5 1168.8 859.2 868.3

% Change
2.40 -6.01 6.33 6.33 5.17 3.82 0.92 0.46 1.12 0.44 0.00 4.11 4.56 -0.36 -0.20 6.58

Scripts
JEERA (JULY) PEPPER (JULY) TURMERIC (JULY) GUARSEED (JULY) GUARSGUM (JULY) CHANA (JULY) SOYBEAN (JULY) REFINED SOYA OIL (JULY) MUSTARD (JULY)

R3
15480.00 35200.00 9243.33 3973.00 12296.00 2953.67 2468.33 665.62 3005.00

R2
14770.00 31800.00 8449.33 3716.00 11551.00 2829.67 2383.33 652.12 2944.00 1190.00 1006.17 444.10 727.77 915.33 929.83

R1
14520.00 29600.00 8154.67 3621.00 11257.00 2787.33 2338.67 645.03 2915.00 1161.00 993.83 432.30 706.63 887.27 899.07

PP
14060.00 28400.00 7655.33 3459.00 10806.00 2705.67 2298.33 638.62 2883.00 1138.00 986.17 418.20 668.37 856.23 856.13

S1
13810.00 26200.00 7360.67 3364.00 10512.00 2663.33 2253.67 631.53 2854.00 1109.00 973.83 406.40 647.23 828.17 825.37

S2
13350.00 25000.00 6861.33 3202.00 10061.00 2581.67 2213.33 625.12 2822.00 1086.00 966.17 392.30 608.97 797.13 782.43

S3
12640.00 21600.00 6067.33 2945.00 9316.00 2457.67 2128.33 611.62 2761.00 1034.00 946.17 366.40 549.57 738.03 708.73

COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (JULY) 1242.00 GUR (JULY) POTATO (JULY) KAPAS (APR 2012) MENTHA OIL (JUNE) CARDAMOM JULY) 1026.17 470.00 787.17 974.43 1003.53

Disclaimer

Weekly Gainers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price 868.3 3526 7860 % Change 6.58 6.33 6.33

Weekly Losers
Commodity PEPPER WHEAT Expiry Date Closing Price % Change -6.01 -0.36 -0.20

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CARDAMOM 15-JUL- 11 GUARSEED TURMERIC 20-JUL-11 20-JUL- 11

20- JULY-11 27400 20-JULY- 11 1168.8 859.2

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MENTHA OIL 30-JUNE- 11

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