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SECTOR VIEW
SECTOR VIEW
Condensed milk
Yoghurt
Market segmentation
The main sub-sectors of the Vietnams dairy market are: 1) fluid milk (plain milk, flavoured fluid milk, soy beverages); 2) powdered milk; 3) condensed milk; and 4) yoghurt, which is further segmented into drinking yoghurt and spoonable yoghurt.
Fluid milk
Fluid milk, at 51%, accounts for the largest share of the sector in terms of total value. Fluid milk consumption has increased 74.45% from 174.5 million litres in 2003 to 304.5 million litres in 2009. The CAGR for the period is 9.74% in volume and 13.57% in value. Although volume grew at a decreasing rate of 7.41% in 2008-09, value growth remained high at 9.87%, reflecting the low demand elasticity, owing to improved health consciousness and rising disposable income. Euromonitor forecasts that the CAGR for fluid milk will drop to 6.12% in volume and 7.88% in value during 2010-13.
SECTOR VIEW
13.57%
Powdered milk
Powdered milk accounts for 13% of Vietnams dairy market. It is the most attractive subsector, with double-digit CAGR of 10.7% in volume and 16.6% in value for 2003-09. Powdered milk producers benefit from their ability to pass on rising imported-material costs to end consumers. The relatively low price elasticity of powdered milk is driven by the pestering power of its target group of infants and young children as well as its expanding consumer base. The General Statistics Office estimates the population of newborn to 4-year-old children will increase 3.6% during 2010-15, compared with 0.6% for 5- to 9-year-old children during the same period. We expect this sub-sector to continue to offer strong growth potential, posting CAGR of 11.25% in volume and 14.43% in value for 2010-13, as projected by Euromonitor. Chart 4: Powdered milk: Sales
30 25 '000 tonnes 20 15 10 5 0 2003 2006 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F Flavored pow der milk Pow der milk 4.3 4.3 5.7 7.5 8.1 8.7 8.3 5.7 9.3 9.9 9.5 10.8 12.4 14.3
SECTOR VIEW
Condensed milk
Despite its low nutritional content, condensed milk ranks second in terms of market share due to its popularity among Vietnamese consumers. Before the increase in disposable income, its low price point made it the nations favourite dairy product. The sectors annual growth declined to a modest level of 4.2% in volume and 8.75% in value during 2004-09 as consumers disposable income increased and they began switching to more nutritionally rich dairy products. We expect condensed milk to witness a slightly higher CAGR of 6.25% in volume and 8.75% in value in the next four years as it is still preferred in rural areas, which account for more than 70% of the population. Chart 6: Condensed milk: Sales
180 160 140 million litres 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2003 2006 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F Condensed milk
Source: Euromonitor, Mekong Securities
128.4
136.1
145
155.1
8.75%
8.75%
6.25% 4.20%
Yoghurt
Yoghurt accounts for 15% of the dairy markets value. Its target market includes healthconscious consumers. The sub-sectors value grew at a rate of 12.6% in 2009 as consumers were relatively insensitive to price rises. Spoonable yoghurt recorded a CAGR of 12.6% in 2003-09, outperforming drinking yoghurt, which saw an estimated annual gain of 7.3% in the same period. The presence of a wider variation of yoghurt products has increased their popularity. We expect drinking yoghurt to achieve higher growth rates than spoonable yoghurt due to changing consumer tastes. Volume CAGR for drinking yoghurt is projected to rise to 9.98% in 2010-13, while that of spoonable yoghurt is expected to decline to 10.4%. In terms of value, CAGR for the yoghurt sector should remain as high as 11.8%.
SECTOR VIEW
Yoghurt
Drinking yoghurt
20 15 10 5 0
SECTOR VIEW
The significant imbalance between supply and demand reflects issues associated with Vietnams herd development. The domestic herd is low in productivity, with the average milk per cow amounting around 1,700kg per year, significantly behind international standards. In comparison, the average is 6,200 kg for the EU, 8,400 kg in the US and 3,300 kg in New Zealand. Although the size of the domestic herd has increased from 113,200 heads in 2006 to 120,000 heads in 2009, dairy farmers find it difficult to compete with foreign suppliers due to rising animal-feed prices, high production and collection costs, and geographical and cultural constraints. The poor herd quality means Vietnam is dependent on foreign suppliers for milk ingredients. Milk and dairy products ranked fifth in terms of import turnover of agricommodities in 2008 in Vietnam. Every year, Vietnam imports approximately USD545 million worth of milk-related products, accounting for 5.8% of the total import turnover of agro-forestry-fishery products and materials. Chart 10: Milk and dairy product import turnover
600 500 Million USD 400 300 200 100 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Nov09
China, 0.60% New Zealand, 22.35%
Chart 11: Import market share for dairy products (Jan-Nov 2009)
302.7
U.S., 11.90%
Holland and the US maintain high growth rates in terms of turnover and market share among countries exporting milk and milk products to Vietnam, according to AGROINFO. Imported milk and milk products from Holland totalled USD136.3 million over the first 11 months of 2009, up more than 25% compared with the same period the previous year and accounting for 28.1% of the total quantity of imported milk in Vietnam. Vietnams turnover of milk imports from the US totalled USD57.6 million, up more than 50% over the same period a year earlier, equivalent to a share of 11.9%. New Zealand ranked second in terms of import turnover, reaching USD108.4 million. New Zealands market share decreased to 22.4% in 2009 from 29.8% the previous year. The share of Chinese milk products made up only 0.6% of the total turnover over the first 11 months of 2009 due to the melamine scandal.
SECTOR VIEW
Source: Euromonitor
Although prices of material milk worldwide dropped at the end of 2008, prices of finished milk products in Vietnam were on the rise, without showing any signs of a decrease. This indicates the low price elasticity of demand for milk products in Vietnam and relatively high brand loyalty. We expect further rises in prices of dairy products owing to increasing costs of imported milk powder as well as higher fuel and transportation costs. Chart 13: Whole milk powder: Global price (USD/metric tonne)
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Dec-06
Source: USDA
Jun-07 Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08 Jun-09
Dec-09
AgroMonitor, a Vietnam-based agriculture research company, estimates Vietnamese milk prices to grow 12-17% yoy in 2010. It attributes the rise to: 1) rising global milk prices as the world economy recovers; 2) higher production costs; 3) rising sugar prices; 4) continued supply-demand disequilibrium, leading to further hikes in milk prices; and 5) fluctuating exchange rates having a negative effect on imported dairy products.
Growing competition
Although there are a large number of dairy brands in Vietnam, the market is dominated by Vinamilk, the leading domestic company, and Dutch Lady Vietnam, a subsidiary of FrieslandCampina. Each makes up around 37-39% of the total market. The level of competitiveness varies across sub-sectors. While players are moving out of the condensed milk sub-sector, other sub-sectors are seeing increasing interest from local and multinational brands, including Nestle, Abbott, Mead Johnson, Long Thanh and Moc Chau milk.
SECTOR VIEW
Drinking milk
Dutch Lady and Vinamilk are the leading players because both companies are pioneers in various drinking milk products, such as flavoured and UHT milk drinks. The two rivals benefit from their aggressive marketing and promotional campaigns as well as rapidly expanding distribution channels. However, national brands such as Long Thanh and Moc Chau milk pose a growing threat as consumers, especially in rural areas, could switch to more affordable brands if Vinamilk and Dutch Ladys products become too expensive. Chart 14: Liquid milk: Market share (2007)
Vinamilk , 35%
Powdered milk
The main players in the powdered milk sub-sector include domestic player Vinamilk and foreign brands such as Dutch Lady, Abbott, Mead Johnson and Dumex. Market shares range from 10-20%, reflecting the high level of competition within the sector and the lack of a clear dominant player. Chart 15: Powdered milk: Market share (2007)
Yoghurt
Vinamilk holds the lions share of the yoghurt sub-sector, with a 55.8% market share. Of this share of the market, Vinamilk holds a 72.1% share for spoonable yoghurt and 8.5% for drinking yoghurt. Its dominant position in this niche market is a consequence of sizeable advertising, regular introduction of new products and a substantial R&D budget.
SECTOR VIEW
Condensed milk
Vinamilk and Dutch Lady, which have well-established brands, dominate this segment. The segment typically targets low-income consumers who spend a large portion of their disposable income on food and are therefore generally quite price sensitive. Pursuant to changes in consumer preference towards liquid milk and yoghurt, we expect condensed milk consumption to stabilise. Chart 17: Condensed milk: Market share (2007)
Dutch Lady, 21% Vinamilk, 79%
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Aggressive advertising and promotional campaigns by major dairy producers have raised brand awareness among milk consumers. This, coupled with consumers reluctance to switch to new brands, is a major constraint facing newer players. Key players with long track records in Vietnam have gained a better understanding of the shopping habits and tastes of Vietnamese consumers. We believe it would take time for new entrants to build brand awareness and understand local consumers.
Development strategy
As stated in the National Dairy Development Plan, the government aims to increase domestic production to satisfy 36% of demand by 2020 and 40% by 2025.
The government plans to increase the domestic herd to 200,000 heads in 2010, 350,000 in 2015 and 500,000 in 2020. To make this plan feasible, the government encourages institutions and individuals to focus on crossbreeding dairy cows for better quality as well as offering interest-free loans and subsidies to farmers. Given the actual number of 120,000 heads in 2009, we believe the plan may prove to be too ambitious. Moreover, the development of the domestic dairy herd will face difficulties associated with price increases for cattle feed, higher production costs, unfavourable environmental conditions and relatively poor technology. We expect the Vietnamese dairy industry to remain heavily dependant on imported sources until at least 2020.
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WTO members for whom Vietnam applies most-favoured nation (MFN) tariffs. Tariffs on manufactured dairy products range between 10% and 30% on raw material and pre-manufactured products, which include skim and whole milk powder. ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) members, for whom Common Effective Preferential Tariffs (CEPT) apply. CEPT tariffs for skim and whole milk powders are currently subject to 5% tariffs.
Concerns
As milk consumers become wealthier and more health conscious, dairy producers are under pressure to improve their product mix to cater to consumers needs. Recent surveys show an increasing number of consumers pay attention to product quality and prices. Consumers are willing to pay higher prices for dairy products from well-known international brands with greater perceived nutritional benefits. This creates pressure on local companies to improve the quality of their products. Quality control is one of the most important issues for dairy producers. In 2008, the Vietnamese milk industry was adversely affected by the melamine scandals in China. Similar scandals could further damage the national dairy industry if consumers were to shift to more trusted international brands. Dairy producers are under great pressure to reduce their prices in the medium to long term, considering that Vietnams dairy is among the most expensive in the world. Moreover, a heavy dependence on foreign markets for input materials increases the risk of margin compression as prices of imported dairy products rise. A lower profit margin is also associated with the costly advertising and marketing campaigns initiated by various dairy producers.
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Notes
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