7. BIBLIOGRAPHY. Clark, N. The political economy of science and technology, (1985) cited in Giambona, F. et al. Commoner B.

The Environment cost of economic growth, Population, Resources and the Environment, edited by R. G. Ridker., U.S. Government Printing Office. (1972), Dietz, T. and Rosa, E.A. "Rethinking the Environmental Impacts of Population, Affluence and Technology. Human Ecology Review. 1.2: 277-300. (1994). Ehrlich P. and Holdren J. Impact of population growth, Science, 171, 12121217. (1971), Giambona, F.; Lo Jacono, V.; Scuderi, R. Il modello IPAT: unevidenza emprica, Universit degli studi di Palermo, Dipartimento di Metodi Quantitativi per le Scienze Umane. Available at http://www.economia.unipa.it/ Accessed on 9th July 2007. Hsiao C. (2003), Analysis of panel data, Cambridge University Press. Available at

http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/scpwpaper/06-49.htm Accesed on 20 June 2007. UNPD (2005), Human Development Report 2005. Available at http://www.undp.org/ Accessed pm 10 June 2007 Raizer Neto, E. Indicators to measure sustainability of an industrial manufacturing. In: Daniel Brissaud; Serge Tichkiewitch; Peggy Zwolinski. (Org.). Innovation in Life Cycle Engineering. BERLIM: SPRINGER, 2005, v., p. 111-123. (2005) Roca J.), The IPAT formula and its limitations, Ecological Economics, vol. 42, issue 1-2. (2002 Schulze P. C. I=PBAT, Ecological Economics, vol. 40, issue 2. (2002)

14

6. CONCLUSIONS. Firstly, it is emphasized that an indictor should be seen as a representation of a trend, and no more. 1) The Environmental Impact of these three products, in increasing order, is: BREAD COTTON SHIRT, AUTOMOBILE, and this is what in line with what was expected. 2) The poor and medium income classes are the ones with the largest share in the environmental impact of vital and non-vital products studied. 3) Products made from non-renewable materials have greater environmental impact. 4) If a product has one hundred percent mass and energy conversion, its Environmental Impact will be ZERO, according to the laws of thermodynamics. 5) The use of these indicators enables us to simulate the opportunities that could improve the condition of environmental impact. Exemples are: 5.1 Social Inclusion the increase in income, even if consumption increases, it increases in less polluting products with a higher degree of technology of conversion of energy and mass. 5.2 Improvement in the public transport system, construction of various service centers in the city, avoiding the use of automobiles. 5.3 Development of technological innovations in: Recycling, reuse and remanufacturing. 5.4 Increase in the useful life of the product, reduction of replacement time. Our research continues in the sense of determining these indicators for the various processes that make up the LCA of the product, in order to identify the critical stages and the opportunities that are presented with greater efficiency, to reduce the impact, as well as improving the values used for the marginal propensity to consume, calculating the environmental impact for the various raw materials which make up the products.

13

An automobile which is well-regulated has an efficiency of 80% in the fuel burning, but this figure can reach less than 40% if the air injection or piston pressure, or the state of the spark plugs, are below the recycling standard. As the automobiles of the different classes have different times of use and maintenance, we will use an interval of 0.4 (for abject poor and poor) to 0.6 (Medium income) and 0.8 for rich. As the energy efficiency is a result of the reaction of fuel, the same indicators will be adopted, as those used for the conversion of materials.

c) CALCULATIONS The indicators of the environmental impacts calculated through the proposed model, using the above-mentioned criteria, shown in Table 8.

TABLE 8 - Environmental indicators according to the proposed model. BREAD ABJECT POVERTY PI NCI EI % global EI 0,5 0.98 0.000258 0.015453 POVERTY 0.54 0.75 0.012264 0.734846 MEDIUM INCOME 0.29 0.15 0.003764 0.225508 RICH 0.02 0.05 0.000404 0.024192 0.016689 global

COTTON SHIRT ABJECT POVERTY PI NCI EI % global EI 0.15 0.98 0.117664 0.019389 POVERTY 0.54 0.75 5.595395 0.922 MEDIUM INCOME 0.29 0.15 0.343421 0.056588 RICH 0.02 0.05 0.012281 0.002024 6.068761 global

AUTOMOBILE ABJECT POVERTY PI NCI EI % global EI 0.15 0.005 2.053125 0.001061 POVERTY 0.54 0.1 1020.6 0.527173 MEDIUM INCOME 0.29 0.55 886.1111 0.457705 RICH 0.02 0.7 27.22222 0.014061 1935.986 global

12

The more disperse the pollutant, the greater the difficulty of treating it, resulting in a greater diffusion of the pollution. We therefore adopt the following valuation: Gases Liquids Solids 10 5 1

Useful Life (VU), Replacement Time (TU), Recycling Rate (TR). The valuation of this item is represented on Table 6. TABLE 6 Useful Life, Replacement Time and Recycling Rate for the Products studied. Bread 1 VU 0.0027
1

Cotton Shirt2 TR 1 VU 5 TU 1 TR 1 VU 1 to 10

Automobile3 TU 100 TR 0 to 1

TU 1

VU a period of 1 day or 0.0027 years was considered. TU since the wheat harvest is annual, a period of one year was considered. TR the majority of the population makes toast or breadcrumbs using old bread.

VU a time of 1 to 10 years was considered, depending on the income class TU as the wheat harvest is annual, a period of one year was considered. TR A recycling rate of 1 was considered, as this cloth has various uses, such as floor cloth, a cleaning cloth.

VU a time of 1 year to 10 years was considered, depending on the income class, as the state of the automobile

when it is purchased is very different in each case. TU considering the high recycling rate in the cast metal industry, a material reserve of 100 years was considered for the automobile. TR a recycling rate was considered for each class, as the original condition of each is very different. b) CM indicator of conversion efficiency of the natural resources This model should be applied to the entire LCA of the product. As the purpose is purely didactic, this indicator will be calculated for just one of the processes consumption represented in Table 7. TABLE 7 Effectiveness of energy mass conversion for the products studied. Bread1 CM EN
1

Cotton Shirt1 0.9 0.9

Automobile2 0.4 to 0.8 0.4 to 0.8

0.95 0.9

When bread is consumed, a waste is produced consisting of paper packaging or plastic film. Measurements

carried out, for various amounts of bread, indicate that the packaging represents not more than 5% of the total mass of the product. Therefore, a CONVERSION of 95 % is adopted. In relation to ENERGY, it can be affirmed that the situation for the BREAD and SHIRTS is a conversion of approximately 1, as the consumption does not occur in the heating of the bread, but in the production of toast during recycling, and the energy needed to wash and iron the shirts.
2

In the use of the automobile, tires and oil are consumed, but without doubt, it is the fuel that represents the

highest amount of mass consumed.

11

TABLE 3 Distribution of income of the Brazilian Population. Itemization Average/annual Income Abject Poverty Poverty Medium income Rich VE. value per unit of mass. The economic value, for which an adimensional number is obtained, needs to be explained by product mass. The values used in the examples are itemized in Table 4. TABLE 4 Economic value of the products studied. Bread Abject Poverty Poor Medium Income Rich R$ 5.00/kg R$ 5.00/kg R$ 5.00/kg R$ 5.00/kg Cotton Shirt* R$ 100.00/kg R$ 100.00/kg R$ 500.00/kg R$ 1500.00/kg Automobile** R$ 2.00/kg R$ 5.00/kg R$ 20.00/kg R$ 150.00/kg 365,00 6300,00 18000,00 84000,00 15 % 54 % 29 % 2% Percentage

* A shirt has a mass of approximately 100 g and there is a difference in price between the shirts of the different income classes. **The following classification was considered for the value of the automobile: Abject poverty and Poverty generally acquire cars more than 5 years old. Medium income a fraction buys new cars and another, larger faction buys used cars, up to 5 years old. Rich generally buy new cars. The average weight considered was 1000 kg. NT the nature of the pollutant and ME - Means of disposal. The valuation of this item is represented on Table 5. TABLE 5 Valuation of the nature and means of disposal of pollution. Bread NT Inhibitor Recalcitrant Nutrient 0 0 1 ME 0 0 1 Cotton Shirt* NT 1 5 0 ME 0 5 0 Automobile** NT 10 0 0 ME 10 0 0

* The wastewater generated in the textile industry and disposed of in the rivers, is considered here, except that for the cotton shirt, the solid waste is biodegradable, and therefore has a lower level of toxicity. ** - For the automobile, only pollution generated only through its use was considered

10

As there is interaction of all types of pollution in all environments, we get:

IP = NT ME ( NE + MC)
Or

(20)

IP = NT x ME x [(1 EM) + (1 CM)]

The greater the IP, the greater the Environmental Impact. (EI) 4. COMPLETE MODEL

(21)

In the preceding paragraphs, we identified that the Environmental Impact (EI) increases with the increase in the Consumption Index(IC) and the Pollution Index(IP), and decreases with the Technology Index(IT). Therefore, we can say that:

IA =

IC IP IT

(22)

Replacing each term with their own expressions, we get:

RC VU ME [(1 (1 CM)] IA = P NC VE NT TU EN CM -(EM) + ) -re 1 + TR

5. EXAMPLES OF APPLICATION

(23)

An application trial was carried out for three different products; bread, a cotton shirt and an automobile. The three examples will be presented together so that the hypotheses formulated are clear for each case. a) Population Brazil has the following population distribution, based on income per capita, shown in Table 2.

TABLE 2 Distribution of the Brazilian population based on income per capita. Itemization No income Up to one minimum salary per month Up to 2 minimum salaries per month From 2 to 10 salaries /month More than 10 salaries/month More than 20 salaries/month Source: IBGE 2005 NC nature of consumption The following nature of consumption is considered for these products: Bread Shirt Automobile RC income per capita Using the values shown in Table 2, and calculating the weighted average of those values shown in Table 3 - Vital - Non-Vital - Utilities Average/annual Income 365.00 4,200.00 8,400.00 12,900.00 63,000.00 84,000.00 Percentage 15 % 26 % 28 % 26 % 3% 2% MEDIUM INCOME RICH Classification Model ABJECT POVERTY POVERTY

VE value of the consumer good per unit of mass. The introduction of this term in the consumption impact is explained as follows: Supposing an individual of a certain income class has an income higher than YV, which is necessary for a vital consumption, this enables him to acquire a certain consumer unit, and his propensity to consume will be as high or as low as the price of this consumer good, therefore (v, nv, u) depend on (VE), the value of the good. In the case of credit purchases, if the value of the installments, including interest, exceeds their ability to pay, then the propensity to consume is not annulled, but simple lowers the influence of that good in the overall consumption for that income class. The consumption therefore continues to be related to the propensity to consume, which in turn depends on the income and value of the consumer good, which can be expressed as:

IC = PI NC I
value. 3.3 IP Impact of Pollution.

RC VE

(16)

IC represents the buying potential which a certain population of income per capital has for a certain economic

Represents the polluting potential of the activity and the variables which influence this index are represented in equation (17). IP = f(NT,ME,NE,MC) Where, NT the nature of the pollutant. Biodegradable products can be assimilated into the environment, while inhibitory or recalcitrant products cannot. The following valuation is adopted in the proposed model: Inhibitor Recalcitrant Nutrient ME Means of disposal. The more disperse the pollutant, the more difficult it is to treat, resulting in greater diffusion of the pollution. We therefore adopt the following valuation: Gases Liquids Solids NE Energy Conversion Residues If EN, equation (7), represents the rate of energy conversion in the elaboration of a product, the residue in relation to the energy would be given by: NE=1-EN MC Residue from Conversion of Raw Materials. If CM, equation (8) represents the conversion rate of materials used to produce the product, the waste generated will be given by: MC = 1 - CM (19) (18) 10 5 1 10 5 1 (17)

RC income per capita Consumers are divided into the following income classes: ABJECT POVERTY fraction of the population which, excluded from the consumer market, lives on charitable donations, and acquire only VITAL products, and even then, very little. POVERTY fraction of the population which acquires only VITAL products and a few NON-VITAL products, such as clothing and footwear of low economic value. MEDIUM INCOME fraction of the population which acquires all classes of products, particularly VITAL and NON-VITAL. RICH fraction of the population which acquires all classes of products indiscriminately in terms of value, useful life, recycling rate or time it takes to replace the resources used to produce them. Parikh et al. (1994), of the Indira Ghandi Institute, compare the consumption per capita of various products, in developed and developing countries. A study carried out in 1991, to support the discussions of the RIO 92 Summit, promoted by the UN, shows, for example, that this ratio is 3 to 1 for cereals; 14 to 1 for paper; 20 to 1 for organic chemical products and 24 to 1 for automobiles.

NC nature of consumption According to the UNPD in the Human Development Report 2003, the world situation, in that year, was as follows: In 2003, 18 countries totaling a population of 460 million inhabitants had a Human Development Index (HDI) which was lower than that of 1990; 10.7 million childrens a year do not reach the age of five. 1 billion people live in abject poverty, on less than US$ 1.00 per day. 3 million people have died from HIV and 4 million are infected by the virus. These data lead us to believe that, depending on the family income, the consumption priority is totally different, according to social class, and, as a result, we adopt three scales of values for the coefficients present in equation (14), varying according to the nature of consumption and income of the consumer, as shown in Table 1. Table 1 Indicator of marginal propensity to consume. Income Class VITAL v Abject Poverty Poor Medium Income Rich 0.98 0.75 0.15 0.05 Nature of Consumption (NC) NON-VITAL nv 0.015 0.24 0.75 0.25 UTILITIES u 0.005 0.01 0.10 0.70

NON-VITAL (nv) goods which are necessary, but their consumption depends on income per capita, shelf life and economic value, which together influence the increase or decrease of consumption. This category also includes household electrical goods, dishes, computers, books, leisure, travel, clothing, footwear... UTILITIES (u) goods which rely exclusively on income per capita. This category includes boats, cars, second homes, restaurant expenses, luxury items... The model of consumption proposed by Keynes is given by the following expression:

C = C B + cY
C consumption CB consumption for maintenance of life, or in our case, VITAL consumption. c marginal propensity to consume, 0c1. Y income available for consumption

(11)

For there to be an increase in consumption, there must be higher income than is necessary to supply the vital consumption, and the greater this difference, the greater will be the possibility of achieving an increase in consumption. Thus, we can rewrite Keynes equation as:

C = CV + c (Y - YV )
where: CV vital consumption YV income spent on vital consumption. Dividing this equation by YV, we get:

(12)

C CV Y = + c ( - 1) YV YV YV
Special Cases. 1)

(13)

If Y = YV; C = CV as it doesnt matter what the c value is, which means that the necessary desire of consumption propensity continues to exist, even when the income conditions are unfavorable, becoming a repressed demand which can always be met whenever Y > YV.

2) 3)

c will always be greater than ZERO, even when the consumption is only vital consumption.
Due to the nature of consumption presented, an equation is suggested which is something like:

C CV Y = + ( nv + u) ( - 1) YV YV YV
Thus the propensity to an increase in consumption

(14)

c should represent the sum of the propensity for the

consumption of non-vital products and utilities, which sadly, is no longer the case for more than twenty five percent of the worlds population, which is unable to meet their basic needs. The following variables are established, influencing the level of consumption of a product, represented in equation (15). IC = f(P,NC,RC,VE) P population. Represents the fraction of the population with income per capita RC. (15)

EN =
MC fuel mass

MP CP MC CE

0<EN<1

(7)

CE calorific capacity of the fuel MP product mass CP calorific capacity of the product The higher the EN, the lower the environmental impact of the technology will be. b) CM indicator of the efficiency of conversion of the natural resources Represents the conversion rate between the mass of natural resources and the mass of product formed.

CM =

MP MT

0<CM<1

(8)

MT mass of the raw materials used MP product mass The higher the CM the lower the environmental impact will be.

RE rate of renewal of the natural resources. This indicator links the nature of the natural resources, whether renewable or non-renewable, to the time it takes to replace, in nature, the resource used. The following equation is adopted: re = 10 for renewable material; re = 1 for non-renewable material;

RE = re

VU (1 + TR ) TU

(9)

VU useful life of the product TU time taken to exhaust the reserves of the non-renewable resources, or time taken to replace the renewable resources. TR recycling rate or rate of reuse of the product (0,...1) The higher the RE the lower its impact will be. Substituting EN, CM and RE in (6), IT, which can be expressed as:

IT =

MP CP MP VU (1 + TR) re MC CE MT TU

(10)

In order to increase the IT, the energy conservation, conversion of raw materials, and useful life of the product should also be increased, as well as the rate of reuse or recycling. 3.2 Impact of Consumption. Based on the nature of consumer goods, these are divided into three categories: VITAL, NON-VITAL and UTILITARY. VITAL (v) goods which are indispensable, but which present a consumption limit, after which neither capital income nor useful life, or their economic value, influence the increase or decrease of consumption. This category includes staple foods, water, dwelling place, medicines, basic education, transport

The use of energy is very different, depending on what stage of the LCA is being considered, and may have a lesser impact, for example, than pollution, another technological factor, provoked by the intensive use of fertilizers and agricultural chemicals during planting. Another question which should be considered is linking the impact of technology per unit of production, considering the various raw materials that comprise it. If we were to take as a reference the value of the wheat planting stage, it would also be necessary to answer the following question: How much of the wheat harvested is used to produce bread, and based on this, can we separate the impact of wheat grown for other purposes, such as pizzas, macaroni, cakes, sweets, etc. Based on the above, we formulated the following hypotheses for establishing the model: 1) The environmental impact of a consumer unit is dependant on the technology used, the consumption, and the pollution generated. 2) The environmental impact of a product should be referenced according to the stages of the LCA of the product, or the impact as a whole 3) The IT (impact of technology) value takes into account not only the consumption of energy, but also the level of conversion and depletion of the natural resources needed to produce it, and whether it is classified as a renewable or non-renewable resource, for each of the raw materials used. 4) The IC (impact of consumption) value takes into account the nature of the consumption, associated with income per capita, the shelf life of the product and the economic value of the product. 5) The IP (impact of pollution) value depends on the quantity and nature of the pollutant, and the environment in which it is disposed of.

3.

PROPOSED MODEL

Considering the hypotheses formulated above, the environmental impact (EI) is given by: EI = f(IT,IC,IP) where: (5)

IT = Impact of Technology IC = Impact of Consumption IP = Impact of Pollution 3.1 Impact of Technology The following variables are established, which heavily influence the level of technology applied to a product, represented by equation (6). IT = f(EN,CM,RE) EN the rate of energy conservation. CM the rate of conversion of the raw materials RE represents the rate of sustainability or safety of product supply. a) EN energy consumption indicator. Represents the ratio between, the amount of energy stored in the product and the energy consumed to produce it, or overall transformation efficiency of the energy consumed. (6)

LCA Agricultural LCA fertilizer

LCA transport

LCA Eggs Milk Yeast Salt

LCA Packaging

Planting

Storage and

milling

Production

consumption

LCA Agriculture machinery LCA transport

LCA energy

LCA energy water

Figure 2 Life Cycle of Bread and its components.

2.2 - Analysis of Ehrlichs Equation applied to the Life Cycle of Bread. 2.2.1 in relation to the population (P) The increase in the population corresponds to an increase in total consumption of bread and the environmental impact, for a given technology, would be directly proportional, as the Ehrlich equation states. 2.2.2 in relation to income per capita (A) In this case, the increase in bread consumption would be given mainly by those individuals who still have not eaten bread. In this case, the increase in income per capital of this population would lead to an increase in consumption, and secondly, no matter how much income per capital increases, bread remains a complementary food consumed by humans, and the amount consumed per inhabitant would be practically unvarying, regardless of income, technological development, offer and production price. It is concluded, therefore, that there is a need to qualify the increase in income per capital so that this can estimate its influence on the environmental impacts arising from the increase in social inclusion, and not just income per capita. 2.2.3 in relation to technology (T) Firstly, it is necessary to consider which technologies are being associated with bread. The technology used for planting wheat has, in our view, more environmental impacts than the production of bread per se, and this is not made clear in Ehrlichs equation. In Ehrlichs equation, what would be the value used to represent (T) in the suggested expression? Some authors, such as Schulze (2002), Clark (1992) and Hsiao (2003), have associated the value of (T), with the consumption of electricity per unit of product, or in some cases, the amount of CO2 emissions arising from the technology used.

Impact( pollution) = Population

Product Pollution Population Product

(2)

This proposition does not take into consideration aspects such as the depletion of the natural resources occasioned by high consumption, even with low pollution indicators per unit of product. Dietz and Rosa (1994) propose the use of the stochastic model for adjusting the parameters and estimated error. The proposed expression is given by:

I = a.Pb Ac T d e
None of the coefficients used in equation (3) have any physical significance.

(3)

Schulze (2002) inserts into Ehrlichs equation, another term associated with consumer behavior or culture, modified by the increase in income per capita.

I = P B AT
where B reflects this change in behavior.

(4)

In this proposal, however, there is no reference to how B is measured and the nature of its dependence between the product analyzed and the income per capita of the consumer. This work seeks to discuss the issues raised above, and contribute to the measurements of environmental impacts, based on easily measurable magnitudes, (RAIZERNETO, 2005), to enable decision-making on policies and mechanisms aimed at minimizing the environmental effects. 2. HYPOTHESES

Based on Ehrlich's model, some comments are made which will support the formulation of hypotheses for the model proposed in this article. We take, as an example, BREAD, a product which is universally consumed. 2.1 LCA - Life Cycle Analysis Figure 1 represents the main stages involved in the LCA of bread.

Figure 1 Stages in the LCA of Bread

Planting Wheat

Milling and storage

Production

Consumption

Each of these stages consists of various processes, each with its own LCA, directly influencing the total LCA of BREAD. Figure 2 represents the main components in each of the processes shown in Figure 1. As can be seen in Figure 2, depending on the volume of control chosen, we have a greater or lesser impact caused by the consumption of bread. If we take the set (production, consumption) the impact caused is far less than that when we consider (plantation, storage, production and consumption).

Proposal of Environmental Impact Indicator or Ehrlich Equations Modified

Ernesto Raizer Neto Rua Lauro Pinto Ferreira, 12 apto. 101 Piarras -, SC. Brazil Phone/Fax: +55-47-33471291 Dr. Ing. Process Engineering INPL-France - raizerneto@ig.com.br __________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT The model of Ehrlich and Holdren proposes that the impact caused by a certain activity, involves a relationship between the variables population, affluence and technology. This article analyses this model, proposing the inclusion of the interdependence between these variables. This proposal was applied to three products: bread, a cotton shirt, and an automobile. The results obtained are consistent among themselves, and the model enables us to establish, based on the easily measurable magnitudes, which procedures should be adopted to reduce the environmental impact in any of the stages of the LCA of the product. Key words: Indicators; Eco-efficiency; Life Cycle Analysis; Environmental Impact. _____________________________________________________________________________
1. INTRODUCTION Ehrlich and Holdrens IPAT model, (1972) establishes the following relation to determine the environmental impact of a consumer unit.

I = P AT
where: (I) impact (P) Population size (A) income per capita for this same population (affluence) (T) technology applied to that consumer unit.

(1)

Giambona et al. (2004) present a bibliographic review of the work of Ehrlich and Holdren, including the application of the model, by Clark (1985) to four groups of countries: 1) Highly industrialized (Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the USA). 2) Semi-industrialized (China, Poland and Russia) 3) Under-industrialized (Brazil, India and Indonesia). 4) Non industrialized (Kenya and Zaire). In the authors words, this model has presented: Results that are robust in all the four panels, and they would suggest a non-intuitive assertion: given a level of technology, the more population and/or income raise, the less impact on environment is. Thus intuition leads us to think about the omission of relevant variables. A statistical indication towards this hypothesis comes also from R2: a low percentage of variance is in fact explained, suggesting that other-than-P, A, T variables need to be included, as also suggested by literature. Commoner (1972) rewrites the Ehrlichs equation using the amount of pollution as an impact measure, represented as: