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PREFACE
On February 22-24, 2007, seventy Next Generation Fellows from the West Coast and across the nation including government officials, representatives from University of California, San Diego, for a meeting of the Next Generation Project: business, government, law, international institutions, the military, nonprofit organizations, academia, and the media gathered at the Faculty Club of the U.S. Global Policy and the Future of International Institutions. The West Coast

Assembly was co-sponsored by the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, led by Dean Peter F. Cowhey, and The American Assembly. It culminating with a national Assembly held in Washington D.C. with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in June, 2008, timed to coincide with the representing a range of views, backgrounds, and interests, were divided into three to provide common ground for the diverse group of Fellows. The table of run-up to the presidential election. The Fellows at the West Coast Assembly, equal groups for four discussion sessions on U.S. foreign policy and the international system in the 21st century. A volume of background reading was compiled contents from the background material can be found at the appendix of this report. was the second of six meetings taking place across the country,

The Next Generation Project is directed by Francis J. Gavin,Tom Slick Professor in International Affairs and Director of Studies at the Strauss Center for distinguished leaders, whose names and affiliations are listed at the end of this

International Security and Law at The University of Texas at Austin. The project is ably assisted by a senior advisory council and steering committee of report. The senior advisory council is chaired by Admiral B.R. Inman, Lyndon B.

Johnson Centennial Chair in National Policy,The University of Texas at Austin, who attended the West Coast Assembly and delivered a formal address. The steering committee is led by Andrew P.N. Erdmann, Consultant, McKinsey & Co., Inc.

After introductory remarks, the West Coast Assembly opened with a stimulating

panel of experts with diverse world views. The panel, moderated by Peter

Cowhey, was comprised of Greg Arnold, Managing Partner, CE2 Capital

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Partners LLC; Sonya Summerour Clemmons, President & CEO, SSC Enterprises of Law-Boalt Hall, University of California, Berkeley. In addition to the speech by Admiral Inman the Fellows heard an address by Anne-Marie Slaughter, Dean Affairs. The panel and Admiral Inmans address can be found on the Next will be continually updated as the project progresses. of Princeton Universitys Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Generation Projects dedicated website, www.nextgenerationproject.org, along

Biopharma Business Solutions; and Howard A. Shelanski, Associate Dean, School

THE NExt Generation Project:

U.S. GLObal Policy & the future of international institutions

with a link to this report and additional information about the initiative. The site The Assembly gratefully acknowledges the generous support of the Ford Foundation, the Carnegie Corporation of New York,The Coca-Cola Company, funders can be found on the projects website. the Hickrill Foundation, the Nasher Foundation, and others. A complete list of The American Assembly and the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies take no position on any subjects presented here for public discussion. In addition, it should be noted that Fellows took part in this meetizations and institutions. ing as individuals and spoke for themselves rather than for their affiliated organWe would like to acknowledge and express special gratitude to the discussion prepare the draft of this report: Alexis Albion, Hilary Aldama, Sharon Burke, to Joshua W. Busby, the Next Generation Projects deputy director. Joan Dempsey, Patrick Gorman, J.C. Herz, and Colin Kahl, with particular thanks

WEST COAST ASSEMBLY

DISCLAIMER
At the close of their discussions, the Next Generation Fellows in the West Coast Assembly of the Next Generation Project at the Faculty Club at the University of California, San Diego, February 22-24, 2007, reviewed as a group the following statement. This statement represents general agreement, however, no one was asked

to sign it. Furthermore, it should be understood that not everyone agreed with all of it.

leaders and rapporteurs who guided the Fellows in the sessions and helped to

INTRODUCTION
The landscape of global issues and actors has changed remarkably in the last world has changed, we have not changed nearly enough. We are not only in need of a post-Cold War foreign policy; we are in need of a long-term strategy broad geographic perspective and an expansive set of challenges and opportufifteen years in ways that challenge traditional models of governance. While the that includes but looks beyond terrorism.That global policy must encompass a nities. We increasingly need to widen our view from Europe and the Middle critical issues that must be addressed. At the same time, other issues must public health, and climate change. command more attention and resources, including economic openness, global East to Asia and the developing world. Terrorism and proliferation remain

The American Assembly

David H. Mortimer

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While we are optimistic about the possibilities for improving human welfare the future and the role of the United States in the world. This sense of worry number of our traditional friends and allies.

here at home and around the world, the shadow of terrorism, institutional inadequacy, and polarized and superficial public debate make us anxious about is reinforced by Americas damaged international standing, including among a

THE NEW GLOBAL LANDSCAPE

From a rich and varied discussion that covered a wide array of topics, four key themes emerged.

BEYOND NATIONAL SECURITY

We acknowledge that almost be tackled alone.

We acknowledge that almost every threat we face cannot be tackled alone. Recognizing that this complex global environment includes a new array of actors, our responses

No longer do we as individuals look primarily to the center, to the nation-state have preoccupied us in the last few years, many of us see a world of transnational challenges and opportunities beyond the narrow lens of national security. While we acknowledge the dangers and downsides of this globalized world, we see many possibilities for positive-sum cooperation rather than zero-sum outcomes. For example, opportunities rather than military competimany of us view China in terms of mutual

every threat we face cannot

(or at least the federal government), or to international institutions for solutions

to all core global policy challenges. Even as counterterrorism and security threats

must exploit innovative policy tools. No one institution or even set of institutions will pro-

vide the answers we need. We must do a better job of matching talent to problems by encouraging creative partnerships, non-traditional collaborations, and policy entrepreneurship across sectors. Our discussions laid the groundwork to assess the strengths and weakness of these complex questions in a productive, respectful, and creative manner.

many of us view China in terms of mutual opportunities rather than military competition

our current national and international institutional architecture. Perhaps most

importantly, fellows with a wide range of backgrounds and perspectives discussed The discussion sessions were structured with several goals in mind. We identified

tion. We recognize the potential problems for us in terms of outsourcing and competition for energy resources. But viewing China primarily as a threat is anachronistic and possibly dangerous.We worry that thinking about global problems in this way may become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

the factors and forces we believe will matter most in the years to come. Before

we leapt into remedies, including domestic and international responses, we examined the new global landscape we face and the goals we should prioritize. logical battles of the past. We explored the complexity, connections, and trade-offs involved in U.S. global policy. We focused on the future while trying to avoid the partisan and ideo-

THE ECLIPSE OF THE PUBLIC SPHERE

While providing security largely remains the preserve of governments, fewer military activity or international institutions will be decisive on their own. Even in a world of shadowy criminal networks able to take advantage of the democratization of information, travel, and weaponry. security issues like proliferation and terrorism are harder for states to control

international problems are of the sort where state-to-state diplomatic and

The first section of our report identifies what we believe are the foundations of the changing global environment within which the United States must operate. The second section explores how public opinion both domestic and foreign interests and challenges and suggest a menu of possible options to improve U.S. global policy. affects the conduct of U.S. foreign policy. In the final section, we identify

In our view, businesses, philanthropies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and subnational governments are able agents of innovation and positive social change. In certain instances, these organizations focus and flexibility

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enables them to operate more effectively than governments. In this vein, we other issues. Part of this de-centered view is a product of our skepticism

look quite favorably upon the activities of organizations such as the Bill &

domestic educational system but also on how we attract and allow talented individuals from other countries to work in the United States. For global problems thousands of private actors is extremely important, particularly when there is a lack of decisive action and consensus at the national and international level. like climate change, what large states like California do to shape the decisions of

Melinda Gates Foundation in addressing problems of global public health and

the diffusion of technology and small groups

about the competence and leadership of both national and international governmental empowered individuals and small groups to operate beyond the bounds of state control. institutions.While recent policy failures confirm this view, the diffusion of technology has

has empowered individuals

THE SHADOW OF TERROR

While we are optimistic about the future, we recognize that there are potenthat could wield the means of mass violence.

tial dangers from an array of sources including the possibility of threats rang-

Reform of national and international institutions is in many cases essential and long overdue; in those cases where existing institutions are proving inadequate, potentially intractable, whether it be the National Security Council, in the the World Bank. We recognize their utility in some policy domains, but we are tutions better or encouraging new structures and collaborations to flourish. uncertain whether energies are always best spent working to make these instiWe already see militaries, NGOs, and corporations working collaboratively to new ones may need to be created. The reform project seems necessary but United Nations family of institutions, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), or

ing from conventional nation-state adversaries to decentralized terror networks We look to government to keep us safe, but the failure to prevent the 9/11 Hurricane Katrina have all contributed to a crisis of confidence in the public sphere. The United States must become more proactive in anticipating and responding to future threats. The consequences of repeated shortcomings, particularly another

attacks, to manage the conflict in Iraq, and to deal with the aftermath of

The United States must become more proactive in anticipating and responding to future threats.

provide humanitarian relief. We also have philanthropies partnering with advocates have teamed up to work on corporate social responsibility.We support

large-scale terror attack on U.S. soil, would an open, confident, and integrated world.

research consortia and international institutions to develop vaccines. Firms and decentralized innovation, while recognizing that these activities are not without now have a patchwork of public-private initiatives. We see a need not only to acknowledge this reality but actively shape it. problems. Where we once had an expectation of public sector response, we

impact not only the United States, but would

also have dire implications for the future of

PuBlic Opinion
by poll data showing U.S. public support of multilateralism, humanitarian intervention, the United Nations, and other international institutions, the consensus policy is often driven by its domestic consequences, e.g. jobs and avian flu. makers are largely insulated, and thus disconnected, from the electorate in the 7 American public and rarely a decisive voting issue. Public opinion of foreign Attitudes towards U.S. public opinion were mixed. While many were surprised

DOMESTIC POLICY AS FOREIGN POLICY

Moreover, with concerns about economic competitiveness, energy security, and transnational migration rising to the fore, we are increasingly uncomfortable with the division between domestic and international issues. Having enough engineers and scientists to compete in the global economy depends not only on our

was that for many years foreign policy was not a primary concern for the Because of the lack of public awareness and discourse on global issues, decision

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foreign policy arena. While this theoretically enables leaders to make dramatic positive changes, it also makes the foreign policy apparatus vulnerable to capture by small influential subgroups.

power to change public opinion in a very short time. For example, in 2006, in response to proposed reform to existing U.S. immigration laws, students led huge marches in California and Texas and coordinated their efforts entirely on MySpace. Text messaging was also discussed as a powerful tool in conducting public opinion polls there is a potential to garner the interest of millions of people and send this information instantaneously to policy makers. While these media provide opportunities for the engaged individual to have a dangerous in instances of propagating demagoguery.

global public opinion matters; it can have real foreign policy consequences.

There was a solid consensus that global pub-

lic opinion matters; it can have real foreign the countrys leadership from supporting the

policy consequences. A key example cited was when public opinion in Turkey blocked U.S. invasion of Iraq. In the past, foreign

greater influence on public opinion, we also note how this power can prove Effective public diplomacy is not a one-way street and it must not be simply

publics may have disapproved of American policy but still admired Americans. Iran or North Korea.

This distinction is fading. There was real concern that the United States is perceived in some countries as the greatest threat to world peace more so than

about changing the message. We need to listen. Sometimes style and tone can be barriers to communication, such as how we talk about terrorism. Words earthquake in Pakistan improved how the the world. matter but actions may matter more. For example, the major contributions of United States was viewed in those areas of public diplomacy efforts. the U.S. government in response to the tsunami in Southeast Asia and the These kinds of humanitarian

International perception of U.S. policy should be integral to the policymaking process, not just an afterthought. Comparisons can be made with the corporate world and political campaigning, where product design, strategy, and marketis essential to the policymaking process if our policies are to be effective. ing are not considered sequentially but are integrated. Such a holistic approach We also noted that in some cases there was a yawning gap between U.S. poli-

Effective public diplomacy is not a one-way street...

actions may be our most effective kinds of

disease, poverty, hunger, and climate change. We need to recognize that we cannot always align our own goals with the priorities of others, or vice versa, but others to support our priorities, we need to make an effort to support theirs.

cy priorities such as terrorism and the priorities of other countries such as

Leadership is important. A new president will have a real opportunity to revive Americas standing in the world. But a de-centered policy response, that empowers both lower levels of government and non-governmental actors, may offer effective strategies for a more natural diffusion of American values to the rest of the world. American goods, firms, cultural products, and celebrities government may not exercise much control a fact we should embrace. remain potent ambassadors for the United States ones over which the central

that this need not be a barrier to communication and cooperation. If we want We see the emergence of communications technologies as a powerful tool in potentially influencing and changing public opinion. Examples include the Abu Ghraib Prison guard with his digital camera, or Bono asking concert fans to send text messages in support of reducing extreme poverty and fighting AIDS. Wikipedia is a new way to engage the average citizen by allowing individuals to contribute their ideas and shaping how they think about the world. Blogs, MySpace, and YouTube were all cited as new spheres of influence with the

Interests, challenges and Proposals

PERRENNIAL INTERESTS
As much as the world has changed in recent decades, American interests

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remain largely the same as they were at our founding: security, prosperity, and

liberty. Keeping America safe and maintaining our way of life depends on a secure homeland, a healthy and open global economy (including increasingly basic human rights. efficient flows of trade, capital, labor, people, and information), cooperative and friendly relations among nations and peoples, and promotion and protection of

vital. The United States can serve a powerful catalytic role in world politics, helping to foster cooperation in areas of common concern. At the same time, leadership does not mean perpetual dominance by a single power or cooperation solely on American terms. None of our current challenges can be solved by the United States alone. American leadership is and emerging powers. necessary, but not sufficient. True partnership is essential, especially with existing The United States should promote a dynamic international order that is resilient and agile enough to address continuing and emerging challenges, including a number of looming and potentially unprecedented dangers to human health and well-being.

CONTINUING CHALLENGES

In a globalizing world of rapid demographic and technological change, humanity criminal networks, illicit trafficking, the war in Iraq, nuclear proliferation, the

faces a series of challenges.These include issues such as: terrorism, transnational stewardship, global health, unfair trading practices, poverty and inequality, weak and failing states, humanitarian crises, transnational migration, and alterations in India as great powers. Israeli-Palestinian conflict, energy security, climate change and environmental

Moreover, as we promote liberty and common human values, we should resist the urge to impose a one-size fits all model on other countries. Every country support their efforts, it is imperative that the United States, by example, promote just forms of government. Although the constitutions and charters of countries will and not subject to the whims of powerful individuals and groups. the notion that the rule of law provides the essential foundation for all viable and inevitably vary, governing laws must be legitimate, transparent, consistently applied, must chart its own course toward development and human dignity. But as we

the global distribution of influence stemming from the emergence of China and

the role of technology and economic integration is makand more transparent. ing the world smaller, faster,

The problems today are more intertwined than they were ten or twenty years ago and tion is making the world smaller, faster, and the role of technology and economic integra-

it is imperative that the United States, by example, promotethe rule of law

more transparent. Given the complex interrank them or productive to address them

dependencies among these challenges, many

of us resisted the notion that it was useful to

piecemeal. For example, it is difficult to say that energy security is more important consequences in other spheres of concern.

Finally, when addressing global challenges, we must avoid overreactions that widely felt that the U.S. war on terror was framed and prosecuted in a

than terrorism, regional instability in the Middle East, or climate change when all

of them are intricately linked. Addressing any one in isolation risks unintended

responding to the threats revealed by the 9/11 attacks, for example, it was manner that eroded Americas standing in the world. Similarly, if, in the decades ahead, the rise of China is viewed as a threat to be managed or contained prosperity, we may produce an unnecessary confrontation.

produce self-fulfilling prophecies and create more problems than they solve. In

PRINCIPLES AND PROPOSALS FOR ACTION

It is imperative that we establish a set of core principles to navigate this complexity.

rather than as an opportunity for strategic partnership and mutual economic

Reestablishing and exercising sustained and credible American leadership is

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Using these principles as guideposts, a number of specific proposals were put forth:

Public-private partnerships. Many of the skills, experience, and on-demand capacity to address complex challenges require extensive partnering with the efforts by corporations to create early warning systems. private sector and NGOs. For example, efforts by the U.S. government to prepare for and prevent pandemics, such as avian flu, would benefit from leveraging ongoing Expand and leverage transnational networks. Many of the most important

in the formation of new institutions and arrangements. It is especially important to utilize new institutional frameworks to forge strategic and economic partnerships with pivotal developing countries, emerging great powers, and non-state actors to address areas of common concern such as climate change and nuclear proliferation.

relationships shaping global security and prosperity occur outside traditional international relations such as diaspora communities. Burgeoning transnational tapped to forge connections that facilitate collaborative problem solving and improve cross-cultural awareness.

ernment does a poor job of integrating public diplomacy at the front-end of its global policy. Instead, there is too much emphasis on marketing American decisions after the fact. It is also imperative that the United States listen, and perceptions abroad. remain open to self-reflection, rather than simply broadcasting American Reconceptualize the global war on terror. Terrorism remains a significant challenge that must be addressed through coordinated national and international action. However, many expressed concern that the appropriate responses to viewing the global war on terror as a global counterinsurgency campaign that terrorism have been framed too narrowly and too militarily. Some suggested

Improve public diplomacy. There was widespread sentiment that the U.S. gov-

communities of shared interests, identities, affinities, and vocations should be

Americans need to become

Enhance domestic understanding of the become more effective global citizens, economically, politically, and socially. This change will require improvements at all levels of international world. Americans need to

more effective global citizens.

education. Educational exchanges should be substantially expanded as an effective means of enhancing cross-cultural awareness and forging shared values.

placed more emphasis on addressing the roots of terrorism through nonmilitary means. There was also support for disaggregating the terrorist threat countries and regions. and tailoring our responses to the particular nature of the challenge in different Transform U.S. capabilities to address weak and failing states and post-conflict

Manage human capital. Expanding human capital in the United States through education and attracting skilled immigrants from abroad is essential to our continued economic growth and competitiveness, as well as a prerequisite for Transform international institutions. Sixty years ago, the United States put in place a new security and economic architecture that served both international and national interests.Today this system is broken, in need of reform, transformation, or new invention. In areas where existing institutions such as the United Nations, NATO, or the G-8 can be reformed and adapted to new challenges, tively with its global partners within these institutions. However, where reform the United States should vigorously support these efforts and engage constructhe types of innovations required to address pressing challenges.

environments. The United States enjoys considerable advantages in conventional

warfighting, but has experienced difficulties in recent years in nation-building, many felt that additional resources and authorities needed to be devoted to civilian was also support for creating a robust civilian reserve that would tap into the global partners within these institutions. expertise across the government, the private sector, and NGOs. The United

stability operations, and counterinsurgency. The military must continue to adapt to develop the capabilities and capacities to address these challenges. However, agencies to make them operational and expeditionary in these settings. There States should vigorously support these efforts and engage constructively with its

or transformation of existing bodies is politically infeasible, America should lead

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economic and security interests, as well as Americas image in the world, but the

Rethink foreign assistance. Foreign assistance is vital to promoting U.S.

private sector, international organizations, and at-risk nations to improve basic warning, and rapid response capability. Additional resources should also be devoted to the National Institute of Health and the Centers for Disease Control. would also serve to enhance the image of America abroad and could form an important pillar of a revived U.S. engagement strategy in the developing world. Beyond the obvious benefits for health and regional stability, these measures

current system is broken. Dozens of official agencies and programs dispense outside efforts by the private sector and NGOs. We need an integrated, trans-

health infrastructure (including clean water systems), prevention, research, early

foreign assistance with uneven impact, and too little effort is made to leverage parent, outcome-based approach that encourages coordination across government agencies, and benefits from the efficiency and innovation of private partners. We must ensure that foreign aid gets to the people who need it and a top attention to promoting economic prosperity and regional stability in the Americas. priority must be relieving the burdens of poverty in Africa and other developing regions of the world. Also included in our list of priorities should be greater

sizeable reduction in U.S. forces from Iraq is likely. Given the geostrategic importance of the Middle East, it is imperative that the United States work in partnership to stabilize the situation in Iraq, advance the resolution of the Israeliaddress the role of moderate influences in the region Palestinian conflict, resolve the standoff with Iran on nuclear weapons, and

Emphasize and Restore Stability in the Middle East. In the coming years, a

Create a win-win energy policy. Energy security was widely viewed as one of the principal challenges facing the United States and the world. Energy is intricately linked to economic well-being, geopolitical competition, the war on terror, climate change, and the trajectory of technological innovation. If energy policy

The United States must play on climate change

is handled poorly, we could easily end up

forge a new global compact

a leading role in efforts to

addressing one challenge only to create

additional problems elsewhere. The U.S. industry to make a major investment in encouraging the development of alternative distribution infrastructure.The United States

A CLOSING THOUGHT FROM THE WEST COAST

Existing institutions have a proud record. But in a changing world the old ways will just not do. It is the responsibility of the next generation to breath new life into old wisdom.

government must partner with private

energy technologies and the required

must also play a leading role in efforts to forge a new global compact on

climate change that seeks to harness the power of the market to encourage innovation, perhaps through the creation of a global cap and trade system. By eign oil, and strengthen the U.S. economy by capitalizing on emerging markets, including in China and India. encouraging technological innovation and global demand for alternative energy, America can simultaneously slow climate change, reduce dependence on for-

Improve the global health infrastructure. The threat of global health crises, serious threat in the years ahead.The U.S. government should partner with the

including pandemics that could claim millions of lives, was widely seen as a

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FOURTH ROW: Martin, Kline, S. Gorman, Feldman, Ratner, Kireopoulos, Cherniavsky, Liu, Schake, S. Smith, Spaner, Angelo, J. Hanson, Calbreath

Keh, Prince, Ruth, Vasishth, Irvin, James, Kralev, Bukspan, Zucker, Latif, Kelley, Busby, Campbell, Khanna, Kahl, Phu, Wright

SECOND ROW: Davis, Mayfield (IR/PS Staff), Williams, Solis, Hopida, Osborn, Aldama, Saenz, Greenblatt, Sant, House, Del Rosso, Hand, Lutar, Aguillon, Moridani, Malesky, Stedman

Castillo (IR/PS intern), Shah, Al-Marayati, Herz, Gavin, Inman, Cowhey, Hollifield, Summerour Clemmons, Beyster, Kiy, Kelly, Bibb (IR/PS Staff)

PARTICIPANTS
PROJECT LEADERSHIP
Francis J.Gavin Tom Slick Professor in International Affairs LBJ School of Public Affairs The University of Texas at Austin Austin,TX Joshua William Busby Lecturer/Fellow LBJ School of Public Affairs The University of Texas at Austin Austin,TX

Albion, Graczewski, Rice, Lamb, Dempsey, Aguirre, Singh, D. Smith, Arnold, Lucier, Hanson

Cecilia Aguillon Director, Business Development and Government Relations Kyocera Solar, Inc. San Diego, CA Tobias Aguirre Executive Director Sustainable Fishery Advocates (Fishwise) Santa Cruz, CA EE Alexis K. Albion Deputy Strategist Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism U. S. Department of State Washington, DC EE Hilary V. Aldama University of Texas School of Law Austin,TX

FELLOWS

Laila Al-Marayati Spokesperson Muslim Women's League Los Angeles, CA L Jill L. Angelo Associate Director The Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law Austin,TX O Greg Arnold Managing Partner CE2 Capital Partners LLC Rancho Santa Fe, CA Mary Ann Beyster President The Foundation for Enterprise Development La Jolla, CA

THIRD ROW:

FRONT ROW:

BACK ROW:

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Neri Bukspan L Peter F. Cowhey Managing Director/Chief Accountant Dean, Graduate School of Credit Market Services International Relations and Standard & Poor's Pacific Studies New York, NY University of California, San Diego La Jolla, CA EE Sharon E. Burke Director, National Security Project L Susan B. Davis Third Way Associate Director, Center for Washington, DC Hemispheric Policy University of Miami Dean Calbreath Coral Gables, FL Reporter San Diego Union-Tribune Stephen Del Rosso San Diego, CA Chair, International Peace and Security CDR Jane Campbell Carnegie Corporation of New York CDR, U.S. Navy New York, NY Commander, Naval Surface Forces San Diego, CA E Joan Dempsey Vice President Booz Allen Hamilton Christine Y. Chen McLean,VA Senior Editor Foreign Policy Magazine Washington, DC Daniel F. Feldman Partner Emma Cherniavsky Foley Hoag LLP Council Director Washington, DC Human Rights Watch Geoffrey Garrett Los Angeles, CA President O Sonya Summerour Clemmons Pacific Council on International Policy Los Angeles, CA President & CEO SSC Enterprises Biopharma Business Patrick Gorman Solutions Principal Flowery Branch, GA Booz Allen Hamilton L Elizabeth Colagiuri McLean,VA Senior Special Assistant to the Dean Woodrow Wilson School of S. Siobhan Gorman International and Public Affairs Washington Correspondent Princeton University The Baltimore Sun Princeton, NJ Washington, DC 18

Tim Graczewski Director, Global Alliances Oracle Redwood Shores, CA Jonathan Greenblatt Founder Ethos Water Los Angeles, CA Bailey S. Hand Office of the Secretary of Defense Washington, DC

Edgar Hopida Public Relations Director Council on American Islamic Relations, San Diego (CAIR-San Diego) San Diego, CA Brett House Economist International Monetary Fund Washington, DC

H Admiral B.R. Inman, USN (ret.) Lyndon B. Johnson Centennial Chair L Brian Hanson in National Policy Associate Director LBJ School of Public Affairs Roberta Buffett Center for The University of Texas at Austin International and Comparative Studies Austin,TX Northwestern University Morenike Irvin Evanston, IL Chair The Riordan Foundation Jay Hanson Senior Director, Product Development Los Angeles, CA eBay Inc. San Jose, CA Francis J. James Justice & Security Sector Advisor E J.C. Herz Bureau for Crisis Prevention and White House Special Consultant Recovery Department of Defense UN Development Programme Alexandria,VA New York, NY Davida E. Herzl E Colin H. Kahl Co-Founder and Executive Director Assistant Professor of Political The Scripps Foundation for Science Science University of Minnesota and the Environment Minneapolis, MN San Diego, CA James F. Hollifield Arnold Professor of International Political Economy; Director, John G. Tower Center for Political Studies Southern Methodist University Dallas,TX Douglas Keh Deputy Chief of Staff UN Development Programme New York, NY

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Tyler Kelley Chief Operating Officer Bel Air Investment Advisors LLC Los Angeles, CA Lorelei Kelly Policy Director, Real Security Initiative The White House Project Washington, DC Parag Khanna Fellow New America Foundation Washington, DC Antonios Kireopoulos Associate General Secretary for International Affairs and Peace National Council of Churches USA New York, NY Richard Kiy President & CEO International Community Foundation San Diego, CA Tony L. Kline Deputy Chairman K & F Baxter Foundation Pacific Palisades, CA Nicholas Kralev Diplomatic Correspondent The Washington Times Washington, DC Paul Lamb Principal Man on a Mission Consulting Vallejo, CA

Khalid Latif Muslim Chaplain Princeton University Office of Religious Life Islamic Center at NYU New York, NY Justin Liu Chief Operating Officer Tireco, Inc. Compton, CA Greg Lucier Chairman & CEO Invitrogen Corporation Carlsbad, CA Ildiko (Lani) Lutar President & CEO San Diego County Taxpayers Association San Diego, CA Edmund J. Malesky Assistant Professor Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies University of California, San Diego La Jolla, CA Jena Martin Consultant Laurel, MD Sahar Moridani Consultant Los Angeles, CA Robert Osborn Director, Business Development Gemini Mobile Technologies Sacramento, CA

Elizabeth Phu Assistant for Transnational Threats Policy Department of Defense Office of the Secretary of Defense Washington, DC James Prince President Democracy Council Los Angeles, CA Ely Ratner Ph.D. Candidate, Political Science University of California, Berkeley Institute of International Studies Berkeley, CA Major Robert C. Rice Major U.S. Marine Corps Oceanside, CA Barton D. Ruth Farm Owner/Operator Rising City, NE Thomas A. Saenz Counsel to the Mayor City of Los Angeles Los Angeles, CA Matthew Sant Partner Irell & Manella LLP Newport Beach, CA Kori Schake Distinguished Professor of International Security Studies United States Military Academy at West Point, West Point, NY

Sonal Shah Vice President Goldman, Sachs & Co. New York, NY O Howard A. Shelanski Associate Dean School of Law- Boalt Hall University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA Patricia S. Sinay Founder & Principle Consultant Community Investment Strategies San Diego, CA Vikram Singh Strategist Department of Defense Washington, DC H Anne-Marie Slaughter Dean Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Princeton University Princeton, NJ David Gaddis Smith Foreign Editor San Diego Union-Tribune San Diego, CA Stephen A. Smith Chief Investment Strategist Whittier Trust Company South Pasadena, CA Cesar A. Solis Captain San Diego Police Department San Diego, CA

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CDR Jonathan Spaner Strategic Advisor to the Commander U.S. Central Command Odessa, FL Stephen J. Stedman Director Ford Dorsey Program in International Policy Studies Stanford University Stanford, CA Vishal Vasishth Vice President Revolution Living Ventura, CA Jessica Wallack Assistant Professor Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies University of California, San Diego La Jolla, CA L Christopher Williams Research Coordinator America Abroad Media Washington, DC Thomas Wright Senior Researcher Princeton Project on National Security Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University Princeton, NJ Howard Alan Zucker Assistant Director-General World Health Organization Geneva, Switzerland

E EE H O L

Discussion Leader Rapportuer Speaker Panelist Observer

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HEARD AT THE ASSEMBLY

The decline of America is not worth focusing on; its just change. We're lucky that our government is porous enough to be influenced by competent outside actors. There's an assumption that if we lead, everyone follows. We're not in that world anymore. International relations could take a page from the playbook of information technology. There is a big institutional gap between the end of a major miltary conflict and peace. Its a nation full of weathervanes with no one willing to act as a compass to lead the way. The media is an institution with its best days behind it. Now in the era of YouTube, an engaged individual, for better or worse, can insert things into the consciousness. A single 20-year-old with a video camera can change the outcome of a Presidential race. American leadership is not unilateral power - it's catalytic power.
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SENIOR ADVISORY COUNCIL

CHAIRMAN
B.R. Inman Lyndon B. Johnson Centennial Chair in National Policy LBJ School of Public Affairs The University of Texas at Austin Austin,TX Warren Christopher Senior Partner O'Melveny & Myers LLP Los Angeles, CA William T. Coleman, Jr. Senior Partner O'Melveny & Myers LLP Washington, DC Diana Farrell Director McKinsey Global Institute San Francisco, CA Thomas S. Foley Partner Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP Washington, DC Lee H. Hamilton Director The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Washington, DC Carla A. Hills Chairman and CEO Hills & Company Washington, D.C. Richard M. Hunt Vice Chairman The American Council on Germany New York, NY

MEMBERS

William R. Archer, Jr. Senior Policy Advisor PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP Washington, DC Henry S. Bienen President Northwestern University Evanston, IL

Coit D. Blacker Director Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Stanford University Stanford, CA

Albert Carnesale Professor, School of Public Affairs University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles, CA

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James C. Langdon Jr. Partner Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP Washington, D.C. Richard G. Lugar United States Senator R-Indiana Washington, DC Joseph S. Nye Sultan of Oman Professor of International Relations John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Cambridge, MA William Powers, Jr. President The University of Texas at Austin Austin,TX Jeffrey D. Sachs Director The Earth Institute Columbia University New York, NY Brent Scowcroft President and Founder The Scowcroft Group Washington, DC Donna Shalala President University of Miami Coral Cables, FL

James B. Steinberg Dean and J.J. Pickle Regents Chair in Public Affairs LBJ School of Public Affairs The University of Texas at Austin Austin,TX Paul A.Volcker Chairman International Accounting Standards Committee Foundation New York, NY

STEERING COMMITTEE
CHAIRMAN
Andrew P.N. Erdmann Consultant McKinsey & Co., Inc. Chicago, IL Amy L. Chua John M. Duff, Jr. Professor of Law Yale Law School New Haven, CT Peter F. Cowhey Dean The Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies University of California, San Diego La Jolla, CA Tom J. Farer Dean The Graduate School of International Studies University of Denver Denver, CO Betty Sue Flowers Director The Lyndon Baines Johnson Library and Museum Austin,TX Aaron L. Friedberg Professor of Politics and International Affairs Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Princeton University Princeton, NJ

Richard W. Fisher President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Dallas,TX

SENIOR PROJECT ADVISOR

MEMBERS

Lisa Anderson Dean School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University New York, NY Philip C. Bobbitt A. W. Walker Centennial Chair The University of Texas School of Law Austin,TX Arthur J. Burke Partner Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP Litigation Department Menlo Park, CA Daniel Byman Director Center for Peace and Security Studies Georgetown University Washington, DC

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James F. Hollifield Arnold Professor of International Political Economy Director, John G.Tower Center for Political Studies Southern Methodist University Dallas,TX Aaron Lobel President and Chairman of the Board America Abroad Media Washington, DC Mark McKinnon Vice Chairman Public Strategies Inc. Austin,TX Susan K. Purcell Director Center for Hemispheric Policy University of Miami Coral Gables, FL Stephen P. Rosen Director Olin Institute of Strategic Studies Harvard University Cambridge, MA Scott D. Sagan Director Center for International Security and Cooperation Stanford University Stanford, CA Howard Shelanski Associate Dean School of Law Boalt Hall University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA

Anne-Marie Slaughter Dean Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs International Affairs Princeton University Princeton, NJ Ashley J.Tellis Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Washington, DC Justin Vaisse Charge de mission Centre dAnalyse et de Prevision Ministere des Affaires etrangeres Paris, France Andrew Baruch Wachtel Dean,The Graduate School Director, Center for International and Comparative Studies Northwestern University Evanston, IL Steven Weber Director Institute of International Studies University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA Amy B. Zegart Associate Professor of Public Policy UCLA School of Public Affairs Los Angeles, CA

BACKGROUND READINGS
SESSION I SESSION II THE WORLD AS IT IS
Seeing the Futures Philip Bobbitt New York Times Dec. 8, 2003 Global Scenarios, Prepared by Andrew P.N. Erdmann Mapping the Global Future: National Intelligence Councils 2020 Report http://www.dni. gov/nic/NIC_2020_project.html

THE WORLD OF THE FUTURE

SESSION III

Global Views 2006 The U.S. and the Rise of China and India http://www.thechicagocouncil.org/UserFiles/File/GlobalViews06Final.pdf Pew Global Attitudes Project http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=252

WHAT WE BELIEVE ABOUT AMERICA AND THE WORLD

Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index http://www.publicagenda.org/foreignpolicy/pdfs/foreign_policy_index_fall06.pdf

SESSION IV WHAT SHOULD OUR PRIORITIES BE?

National Security Strategy of the United States of America 2006 http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2006/ National Security Strategy of the United States of America 2002 http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.html

A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement, 1996 http://www.fas.org/spp/military/docops/national/1996stra.htm Toward an Effective International Legal Order: From Coexistence to Concert? Tom Farer Cambridge Review of International Affairs July 2004

Forging a World of Liberty Under Law: U.S. National Security in the 21st Century Executive Summary of the Princeton Project on National Security http://www.wws.princeton.edu/ppns/report/FinalReport.pdf

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U.S. GLOBAL POLICY & THE FUTURE OF

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
PROJECT LAUNCH AUSTIN,TEXAS JUNE 12, 2006 Co-sponsors: Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law at The University of Texas at Austin Lyndon Baines Johnson Library and Museum MIDWEST ASSEMBLY EVANSTON, IL OCTOBER 18-20, 2007 Henry S. Bienen, President, Northwestern University Andrew Wachtel, Director, Center for International and Comparative Studies www.cics.northwestern.edu NORTHERN WEST COAST ASSEMBLY TBA WINTER 2008

THE AMERICAN ASSEMBLY

ABOUT THE AMERICAN ASSEMBLY
The American Assembly, founded by Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1950, is affiliated with Columbia University. The Assembly is a national, non-partisan public affairs forum that illuminates issues of public policy through commissioning research and publications, sponsoring meetings, and issuing reports, books, and other literature. Its projects bring together leading authorities representing a broad spectrum of views and interests. Assembly reports and other publications are used by government, community, and civic leaders, and public officials. American Assembly topics concern not only domestic and foreign policy, but also issues that include arts and culture, philanthropy, health, business, economy, education, law, race, religion, and security.

STAGE 2

STAGE 1

WEST COAST ASSEMBLY SAN DIEGO, CA FEBRUARY 22-24, 2007 Peter F. Cowhey, Dean, Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies University of California, San Diego www-irps.ucsd.edu MOUNTAIN STATES ASSEMBLY DENVER, CO JUNE 14-16, 2007 Tom J. Farer, Dean, Graduate School of International Studies University of Denver www.du.edu/gsis

SOUTHWEST ASSEMBLY DALLAS,TX OCTOBER 19-21, 2006 James F. Hollifield, Director, John G.Tower Center for Political Studies Southern Methodist University www.smu.edu/tower

SOUTHEAST ASSEMBLY MIAMI, FL SPRING 2008 Donna Shalala, President, University of Miami Susan K. Purcell, Director, Center for Hemispheric Policy www6.miami.edu/chp

TRUSTEES

Stephen Stamas, Chairman Charles Benton Lee C. Bollinger, ex officio Bradley Currey, Jr. David R. Gergen B.R. Inman

Clifford M. Hardin Kathleen H. Mortimer Eleanor Sheldon

TRUSTEES EMERITI

STAFF
David H. Mortimer, Chief Operating Officer Rochelle S. Pollock, Associate Director Karla Garcia, Financial Associate Shula Brudner, Director of Development Mark Leneker, Program Coordinator Megan Wynne, Program Coordinator

STAGE 3

NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WASHINGTON, DC JUNE 2008 Lee H. Hamilton, Director, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.com

John F. McGillicuddy Donald F. McHenry David H. Mortimer Paul A.Volcker Frank A.Weil

Raymond D. Nasher

Clifton R.Wharton, Jr. Alice Young

Terry Roethlein, Program Coordinator

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THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND PACIFIC STUDIES (IR/PS), UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
The Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies (IR/PS), at the University of California, San Diego, is devoted to the study of international affairs, economics, and policy education. It stands as the only professional school of intervides a unique resource for training leaders, creating ideas, and building networks national affairs that is exclusively focused on Asia and the Americas. IR/PS profor the Pacific Century. Interdisciplinary yet integrated curricula prepare students to perform with distinction in senior policy positions in the public and nonprofit sectors, as well as in the top management of multinational firms and PhD programs by Foreign Policy Magazine. financial institutions. IR/PS is a full member of The Association of Professional

Schools of International Affairs and is ranked in the top ten for its Master's and

INTERNATIONAL ADVISORY BOARD

Richard C. Atkinson Douglas Bereuter Fredric S. Berger* William A. Bold Carlos Casasus M. Javade Chaudhri Richard Chen Peter Cowhey* Diana Lady Dougan Paul W. Drake Robert F. Ellsworth* Phyllis Epstein Aaron Feldman David Freitas 97 Kenneth B. Hamlet* Frances Hesselbein James D. Jameson** Jerome S. Katzin Susan Lew Zhong Yuan Li

Membership List as of February 1, 2007

Susan Howell Mallory* Robert K. Neilson* Brian Powers Mark J. Rinella 92 Charles Robins Lawrence B. Robinson Richard N. Sinkin Kwan L. So* Manuel Weinberg Jack K.White David J. Zuercher

EMERITI

Nicholas B. Binkley Lucy L. Killea 75 R. B.Woolley, Jr. Hans W. Schoepflin

*Executive Committee member **Executive Committee chair

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School of International Relations and Pacific Studies

University of California, San Diego 9500 Gilman Drive, Mail Code 0519 La Jolla, CA 92037 Telephone: (858) 534-2660 Fax: (858) 534-3939 http://irps.ucsd.edu