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Power Distribution Planning Reference Book

Second Edition, Revised and Expanded

ABB, Inc. Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S.A.

H. Lee Willis

MARCEL

MARCEL DEKKER, INC.


lo DEKKER

NEW YORK BASEL

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

Although great care has been taken to provide accurate and current information, neither the author(s) nor the publisher, nor anyone else associated with this publication, shall be liable for any loss, damage, or liability directly or indirectly caused or alleged to be caused by this book. The material contained herein is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any specific situation. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN: 0-8247-4875-1 This book is printed on acid-free paper. Headquarters Marcel Dekker, Inc. 270 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, U.S.A. tel: 212-696-9000; fax: 212-685-4540 Distribution and Customer Service Marcel Dekker, Inc. Cimarron Road, Monticello, New York 12701, U.S.A. tel: 800-228-1160; fax: 845-796-1772 Eastern Hemisphere Distribution Marcel Dekker AG Hutgasse 4, Postfach 812, CH-4001 Basel, Switzerland tel: 41-61-260-6300; fax: 41-61-260-6333 World Wide Web http://www.dekker.com The publisher offers discounts on this book when ordered in bulk quantities. For more information, write to Special Sales/Professional Marketing at the headquarters address above. Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Neither this book nor any part may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Current printing (last digit): 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

POWER ENGINEERING
Series Editor

H. Lee Willis
ABB Inc. Raleigh, North Carolina

1. Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, H. Lee Willis 2. Transmission Network Protection: Theory and Practice, Y. G. Paithankar 3. Electrical Insulation in Power Systems, N. H. Malik, A. A. AlArainy, and M. I. Qureshi 4. Electrical Power Equipment Maintenance and Testing, Paul Gill 5. Protective Relaying: Principles and Applications, Second Edition, J. Lewis Blackburn 6. Understanding Electric Utilities and De-Regulation, Lorrin Philipson and H. Lee Willis 7. Electrical Power Cable Engineering, William A. Thue 8. Electric Systems, Dynamics, and Stability with Artificial Intelligence Applications, James A. Momoh and Mohamed E. ElHaw ary 9. Insulation Coordination for Power Systems, Andrew R. Hileman 10. Distributed Power Generation: Planning and Evaluation, H. Lee Willis and Walter G. Scott 11. Electric Power System Applications of Optimization, James A. Momoh 12. Aging Power Delivery Infrastructures, H. Lee Willis, Gregory V. Welch, and Randall R. Schrieber 13. Restructured Electrical Power Systems: Operation, Trading, and Volatility, Mohammad Shahidehpour and Muwaffaq Alomoush 14. Electric Power Distribution Reliability, Richard E. Brown 15. Computer-Aided Power System Analysis, Ramasamy Natarajan 16. Power System Analysis: Short-Circuit Load Flow and Harmonics, J. C. Das 17. Power Transformers: Principles and Applications, John J. Winders, Jr. 18. Spatial Electric Load Forecasting: Second Edition, Revised and Ex-

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

panded, H. Lee Willis 19. Dielectrics in Electric Fields, Gorur G. Raju 20. Protection Devices and Systems for High-Voltage Applications, Vladimir Gurevich 21. Electrical Power Cable Engineering: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, William A. Thue 22. Vehicular Electric Power Systems: Land, Sea, Air, and Space Vehicles, Ali Emadi, Mehrdad Ehsani, and John M. Miller 23. Power Distribution Planning Reference Book: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, H. Lee Willis 24. Power System State Estimation: Theory and Implementation, Ali Abur and Antonio Gomez Expos/to
ADDITIONAL VOLUMES IN PREPARATION

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

Series Introduction
The original edition of Power Distribution Planning Reference Book was the first in Marcel's Dekker's Power Engineering series. It is a sign of the growing maturity of this series, and the continued development and evolution of power engineering and the utility industry, that many of the books in it are now going into their second editions. Power engineering is certainly the oldest and was for many decades the most traditional of the various areas within electrical engineering. Without doubt, electric power and utilities are also the oldest technology-based sector of modern industry. Yet no other facet of our technology and culture is undergoing such a lengthy and comprehensive revolution. It would be a gross simplification to attribute all the changes the power industry is seeing to de-regulation, which is in fact more an effect of much larger forces than a root cause of the industry's continuing transformation. As proof, one only has to look at power distribution. Distribution is the level of the power system least impacted by de-regulation, yet it has changed dramatically in the past decade, as Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, Second Edition bears witness. Fully 70% of the book is new compared to the first edition. Overall, the second edition contains more than twice the content of the first, changes fairly reflecting the growth and change of power distribution planning in the 21st century. As both the editor of the Power Engineering series and the author of this book, I am proud to include Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, Second Edition, in this important group of books. Following the theme we have set from the beginning in Marcel Dekker's Power Engineering series, this book provides modem power technology in a context of proven, practical application; useful as a reference book as well as for self-study and advanced classroom use. Marcel Dekker's Power Engineering series includes books covering the entire field of power engineering, in all of its specialties and sub-genres, all aimed at providing practicing power engineers with the knowledge and techniques they need to meet the electric industry's challenges in the 21st century. H. Lee Willis

in
Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

Preface
This second edition of the Power Distribution Planning Reference Book is, like the first, both a reference book and a tutorial guide for the planning of electric utility power delivery systems. But it is much more than just a revision of the former edition. During the decade since the first edition was published a number of forces have come together to greatly complicate and expand the role of the power distribution planner. This new book, which contains more than twice the content of the original, has been designed to fit the wider scope and greater complexity of modern power distribution planning. Foremost among the changes affecting planners has been an industry-wide move toward very explicit management of reliability. Modern electric utilities cannot meet their customer and regulatory expectations simply by designing to good standards and criteria as utilities did in the past. A 21st-century power company must aim at and achieve specific targets with respect to reliability of service. But while reliability-targeted performance may be the greatest new technical challenge affecting many modern power delivery planners, changes in utility business and financial orientation have had a much larger impact on most. Performance-based and frozen-rate schedules, disaggregation of the traditional vertical structure, and subtle changes in the attitude of the investment community toward utilities in general have created tremendous pressure to reduce spending and improve financial performance. While this means planners are challenged more than ever to reduce cost, there is a subtle difference between "spending" and "cost." Traditional methods of evaluating merit and ranking alternatives against one another do not always fit well in this new environment. The third change has been a rather sudden and still-growing recognition that "aging infrastructures" have become a significant problem. A few utilities have systems whose average age exceeds the nominal design lifetime of major electrical equipment. Almost all have significant areas of their system where this is the case. Aging equipment has a higher failure rate, requires more maintenance, and has a shorter expected lifetime than new equipment, all factors that potentially reduce reliability and increase cost. Beyond the very real challenge that dealing with increasing amounts of worn out equipment creates, aging infrastructures have brought about a subtle change in technical
v
Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

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approach and cultural attitudes at utilities. Traditionally, the fact that all equipment would eventually "die" was understood by all concerned, but it had no role in utility engineering planning. Unavailability of equipment for brief periods, perhaps unexpectedly, was a recognized problem and addressed by contingency planning methods. But the concept of "lifetime" was completely absent from traditional T&D planning, which effectively assumed that equipment already in the system as well as that being added would be there "forever." Today, planners, managers, and operators at many utilities realize that much of their system will fail within the span of their career, a good deal of it in the very foreseeable future. Lifetime, as affected by specification, utilization and required reliability, and care given equipment, is suddenly something to be explicitly studied and managed. These considerations, and their obvious interaction with targeted reliability and tight budget considerations, greatly complicate T&D planning. One reaction to the combination of increasing focus on business coupled with this need to manage "lifetime" has been the advent of "Asset Management" as a business paradigm for electric utilities. While that term has many variations in meaning within the industry, it invariably means a closer integration of business and engineering, and of capital and O&M planning, aimed at a "lifetime optimum" business-case for the acquisition, use, and maintenance of equipment and facilities. The author does not mean to imply that the use of asset management methods in the power industry has been driven by the aging infrastructure issue. In fact it has been driven mostly by a search for an improved business paradigm suitable for the modern regulatory and financial environment. But asset management methods provided a very sound basis for considering all of the issues that surround equipment aging and "lifetime management," and thus fit not only the business, but many of the new technical issues in the industry. Despite all these changes, distribution planning still involves developing and justifying a schedule of future additions and changes that will assure the utility's goals for electric delivery are met. Tactically, distribution planners must accomplish three tasks. First, they must identify the goals for their system. Exactly what constitutes "satisfactory performance?" How is that measured? What does "lowest cost" and "least budget" mean? Unambiguous, quantitative targets must be established for all planning goals. Second, planners must understand how differences in distribution system design and equipment will affect the achievement of these goals. Distribution systems are complicated combinatorial entities, whose performance and economy depend on the coordinated interaction of tens of thousands of individual equipment and circuit elements. Worldwide, there are several fundamentally different "design philosophies" for laying out a distribution system and engineering it to work well what might be called differing design paradigms. All work well. But while each paradigm has its plusses and minuses, there is usually one best design to achieve the planner's specific desired targets and end results. Third, planners must find that best design, every time, from among the thousands or even tens of thousands of feasible designs that might work for their system. Their planning methodology must be comprehensive and complete, assuring that nothing is overlooked and that every opportunity for savings or improvement is fully exploited. This second edition has been written to address this distribution planning process in a way that meets all of the new challenges discussed above. Following his own advice - that reliability and business prioritization must be built into the system and the planning process, and not "tacked on at the end" - the author has not updated the first edition by simply adding a few new chapters on reliability-based planning, aging equipment, and businessbased prioritization methods.

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

Preface

VII

Instead, the bulk of the original book has been entirely re-written in company with the addition of many new topics and chapters new material. As a result, most of this second edition is new. There are two completely new chapters on reliability (Chapters 21 and 23), but more important, reliability engineering and planning concepts are distributed throughout the book, beginning in Chapter 1 and continuing through to the end. Similarly, there are new chapters on business-based "bang for the buck" prioritization methods (Chapter 6), on aging infrastructures and their impacts (Chapters 7 and 8) and on business-based and asset management planning methods (Chapter 28). But more importantly, those concepts are all woven throughout all of the book, in both old and new chapters. The net result of these additions and enhancements, along with other new chapters on distributed resources (Chapter 10) and objectivity and accuracy in planning (Chapter 29), is that the Power Distribution Planning Reference Book has more than doubled in content, from just under 290,000 words in the first edition to more than 600,000 here, an increase that the author believes is rather representative of the increased challenge that modem planners face. Roughly speaking, the job is about twice as difficult as it was in the past. The much greater length of this second edition has brought some changes in organization to make the book more useful both as a tutorial guide and as a reference for practicing planners. First, to facilitate tutorial usage each chapter has been written as much as possible as a stand-alone, serial treatise on its topic. (Chapters 13-15 are a notable exception, being in reality a single 130+ page discussion of feeder planning.) Second, to facilitate usage as a reference, numerous cross-references by topic and interaction have been given among chapters, and each chapter concludes with a one-page table summarizing its key concepts - useful for quick reference. A concluding chapter has been added that summarizes key concepts and guidelines, and gives references to chapters and sections where detail can be found on each point. Finally, the author has endeavored to make the index particularly comprehensive and useful. This book is organized into four parts. The first ten chapters constitute basic "resource" material, each chapter being more or less a stand-alone tutorial on a specific area of modern T&D planning or systems (e.g., Chapter 6 on prioritization and ranking methods). The second part of the book, Chapters 11-19, is a bottom-up look at T&D systems in detail, including their electrical performance, reliability, and cost. The third part of the book, Chapters 20-25, covers T&D planning tools and technologies. Chapters 26-30 conclude with a look at the planning process: how it is organized, how it meshes with other utility functions, and how planners work within it. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to distribution systems, their mission, the rules that govern their behavior, and their performance and economics. This one-chapter summary is provided for those unfamiliar with or new to power delivery systems. Experienced planners can skip this chapter, although it is recommended, as several key concepts, particularly the systems approach and Two-Q, are introduced here. Ultimately, the T&D system exists solely to deliver power to energy consumers. Chapter 2 looks at consumer demand for electric power. It explains Two-Q, a concept of looking at both customer demand and system capability as composed of two dimensions: the quantity (peak kW load, system capability) of power needed, and the quality of power need (value of connectivity, reliability of service). Successful electric utilities keep spending low while managing to provide satisfactory levels of both. Chapter 3 looks at consumer demand as it looks to the power system, as electric load. This chapter covers basic electric load concepts such as types of electric load (resistive, impedance), appliance duty cycles and their interaction with one another and weather, load curve shapes and factors, coincidence of load and diversity of peaks, and measurement of demand and load curve shape.
Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

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Chapter 4 is a basic introduction to electric service reliability. It provides basic definitions and concepts and builds a foundation for the considerable amount of reliabilitybased planning and engineering material later in the book. The chapter describes the use of reliability indices including the purposes and pitfalls of comparison and benchmarking. Chapter 5 reviews traditional engineering economics from the perspective of the distribution planner, mostly time-value-of-money analysis and its pragmatic application as a decision-making tool. Although many utilities use newer asset management approaches to prioritize their spending, traditional engineering economics are still used pervasively in the analysis and cost evaluation that leads up to the decision-making system, regardless of what "management paradigm" the utility is using. Chapter 6 is perhaps the first that experienced planners will find a break from the past. It looks at project and spending prioritization methods in some detail. While it deals comprehensively with the traditional least-cost approach, the chapter is definitely focused on modern "bang for the buck" methods as used in reliability-based planning, in budgetconstrained situations, and for "asset management." Both traditional and new analytical methods as well as processes and procedures for their use are discussed and compared. Chapters 7 and 8 provide tutorial and reference material on equipment aging, failure rates, and in particular how aging infrastructures impact the reliability of a power system. Failure rate does increase with age. But as these chapters show, very old equipment is seldom the problem. It is usually equipment in "late middle age" that proves most problematic. Chapter 9 covers load reach, a measure of the distance that a circuit or system can move power while providing suitable service voltage, and one of the author's favorite distribution planning tools. Many power engineering techniques optimize equipment selection and design on a per unit basis, which for circuits means a per foot, per kilometer, or similar basis. Such methods represent a current-related optimization approach and are quite important. By contrast, load reach can be thought of as a voltage or voltage drop optimization of a system. It permits a planner to look at the overall needs of a feeder system - power must be moved from substations out to the mid-point between substations. Circuit designs and specifications that have sufficient load reach to meet this distance need efficiently, but no more, generally prove most economical and reliable. The best performing circuits are optimized on both a voltage and current basis. The chapter also addresses voltVAR performance and planning, something closely related to load-reach concepts and attaining optimum voltage performance. Chapter 10 is a tutorial on distributed resources (DR), which includes distributed generation (DG), distributed energy storage (DS), and demand-side management (DSM). Although not part of classical T&D planning, DR is increasingly a factor in many utility decisions and is a required alternative that planners must consider in some regulatory jurisdictions. But the author has included this chapter for another reason, too. DR methods also include customer-side methods such as UPS and backup generation (a form of DG), that principally affect service reliability. From a Two-Q perspective their capability pertains mostly to the quality, not quantity, dimension. They are therefore of great interest to modern planners looking for maximum bang for the buck in terms of reliability. The second part of the book, Chapters 11 through 19, constitutes a detailed look at the design, performance, and economics of a power distribution system, based on two overriding principles. The first is the systems approach: sub-transmission, substation, feeder, and service levels are integrated layers of the system. These disparate levels must work well together and their overall performance and cost should be optimized. That comes as much from sound coordination of each level with the others as it does from optimization of any one level.
Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

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The second concept is cost. While the aforementioned changes in financial priorities have caused many utilities to optimize spending (cash flow), not long-term cost as in the past, detailed and explicit knowledge of what various alternatives will truly cost, now and in the future, is vital for sound management of both the system and the utility's finances no matter what paradigm is driving the budget prioritization. Therefore, Chapters 11-19 focus a great deal of attention on determining all costs. Chapters 11 and 12 look at conductor and transformer economic sizing in some detail, beginning with basic equipment sizing economics in Chapter 11. The approaches discussed there will be familiar to most planners. However, Chapter 12's extension of these concepts to conductor or equipment type set design, which involves finding an optimal group of line types or equipment sizes to use in building a distribution system, will be new to many. Primary feeder circuit layout and performance is examined in Chapters 13 through 15. Although there are exceptions in order to put important points in context, generally Chapter 13 deals with the equipment selection, layout, and performance of individual circuits, while Chapter 15 looks at multi-feeder planning - for groups of feeders serving a widespread area. Chapter 14 looks at reliability and reliability planning at the feeder level, and serves as a conceptual and methodological bridge between Chapters 13 and 15, for while distribution reliability begins with a sound design for each individual feeder, it is quite dependent on inter-feeder contingency support and switching, which is the multi-feeder planning venue. These three chapters also present and compare the various philosophies on system layout, including "American" or "European" layout; large trunk versus multi-branch; loop, radial, or network systems; single or dual-voltage feeder systems; and other variations. Chapter 16 looks at distribution substations and the sub-transmission lines that route power to them. Although they are not considered part of "distribution" in many utilities, coordination of sub-transmission, substation, and distribution feeders is a critical part of the system approach's optimization of overall performance and cost. Substations can be composed of various types of equipment, laid out in many different ways, as described here. Cost, capacity, and reliability vary depending on equipment and design, as do flexibility for future design to accommodate uncertainty in future needs. Chapter 17 takes a "systems approach" perspective to the performance and economics of the combined sub-transmission/substation/feeder system. Optimal performance comes from a properly coordinated selection of voltages, equipment types, and layout at all three levels. This balance of design among the three levels, and its interaction with load density, geographic constraints, and other design elements, is explored and evaluated in a series of sample system design variations of distribution system performance, reliability, and economy. Chapter 18 focuses on locational planning and capacity optimization of substations, looking at the issues involved, the types of costs and constraints planners must deal with, and the ways that decisions and different layout rules change the resulting system performance and economy. No other aspect of power delivery system layout is more important than siting and sizing of substations. Substation sites are both the delivery points for the sub-transmission system and the source points for the feeder system. Thus even though the substation level typically costs less than either of the two other levels, its siting and sizing largely dictate the design of those two other levels and often has a very significant financial impact if done poorly. Chapter 19 looks at the service (secondary) level. Although composed of relatively small "commodity" elements, cumulatively this closest-to-the-customer level is surprisingly complex, and represents a sizable investment, one that benefits from careful equipment specification and design standards.

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

Preface

The third portion of the book, Chapters 20-25, discusses the tools and skills that modern distribution planners need to do their work. In the 21st century, nearly all of these tools make heavy use of computers, not just for analysis, but for data mining and decision support. Regardless, this portion of the book begins with what many planners may not consider to be tools: the engineering and operating guidelines (standards) and the criteria that set limits on and specify the various engineered aspects of a T&D system. Chapters 20 and 21 focus respectively on voltage, loading, equipment and design guidelines, and reliability, maintainability and service quality guidelines and criteria. Their overall perspective is that criteria and guidelines are tools whose primary purposes should be to assist planners in performing their job quickly. The more traditional (and obsolete) view was that guidelines (standards) and criteria existed primarily to assure adequate service quality and equipment lifetime. Modem utilities explicitly engineer aspects like voltage, flicker, and reliability of service, so that role has been somewhat superceded. Regardless, an important point is that good guidelines and criteria can greatly speed the planning process, a critical point for modern utilities that must "do more with less." Chapter 22 presents electrical performance analysis methods - engineering techniques used to assess the voltage, current, power factor and loading performance of distribution systems. The chapter focuses on application, not algorithms, covering the basic concepts, models, methods and approaches used to represent feeders and evaluate their performance and cost in short-range planning and feeder analysis. Chapter 23 focuses on reliability analysis methods - engineering techniques used to assess the expected reliability performance of distribution systems, including frequency and duration of interruptions seen by customers, and severity and frequency of voltage sags on the system. Focus is on application and use of modern, predictive reliability engineering methods, not on algorithms and theory. Most important from the standpoint of modem distribution planners, dependable and proven reliability-engineering methods do exist and are effective. To an electric utility trying to meet regulatory targets and customer expectations in the most effective business manner possible, these methods are vitally important. Chapter 24 looks at decision-making and optimization tools and methods for distribution planning. Although modern planners depend on computerized methods for nearly all planning, there is a substantial difference between the computerized performance analysis methods of Chapters 22 and 23, and the automated planning methods presented here. Automated planning tools can streamline the work flow while also leading to better distribution plans. Most are based on application of optimization methods, which, while mathematically complicated, are simple in concept. The chapter presents a brief, practical, tutorial on optimization, on the various methods available, and on how to pick a method that will work for a given problem. As in Chapters 22 and 23, the focus is on practical application, not on algorithms. Automated methods for both feeder-system planning and substation-siting and sizing are discussed, along with typical pitfalls and recommended ways to avoid them. Chapter 25 looks at spatial load forecasting tools and methods. All T&D plans begin with some concept of what the future demand patterns will be: the forecast is the initiator of the planning process - anticipation of demand levels that cannot be served satisfactorily is the driver behind capital expansion planning. Characteristics of load growth that can be used in forecasting are presented, along with rules of thumb for growth analysis. Various forecasting procedures are delineated, along with a comparison of their applicability, accuracy, and data and resource requirements. The final portion of the book, Chapters 26-30, focuses on planning and the planning process itself: how planners and their utilities can use the tools covered in Chapters 20-25,
Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

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and organize themselves and their work flow, and interact with other aspects and groups within a utility, so that ultimately they both produce and execute good plans for the system and accommodate the other needs that the utility has with respect to the distribution system (mostly safety and business needs). Planning processes and approaches have undergone considerable change since the first edition of this book was published, and are in a state of continual change as this is written. This portion of the book is nearly all new. It presents an integrated look at the three largest changes affecting distribution planners, and how they can deal with their combined impact. These changes are the increasing emphasis on reliability and achieving reliability targets, an increasingly business-basis in all spending and resource decisions, and far less emphasis on long-range system planning. Reliability is important because in the 21st century it has become and will remain an explicitly measured and tracked aspect of utility performance, something the utility (and its planners) must engineer and manage well. The increasing business basis is due to a host of factors discussed in various parts of this book, but its net impact on planners is to change the context within which their recommendations are made: modern utilities make all spending decisions on a business-case basis. The shift to more short-range and less long-range focus is not, as often thought, due to a narrow "profit now" business focus by utilities. Instead, it reflects a shift in the importance of both engineering and business considerations. The higher utilization ratios and the greater emphasis on reliability faced by modern utilities mean that planning mistakes are more costly and may take longer to fix. "Getting it right, now" is vital to a modern T&D utility: very good, rather than just adequate, short-range planning is more important than ever. Beyond this, modern business planning and management methods have proven very successful at reducing long-term risk and retaining long-term flexibility: optimizing or even organizing long-range T&D plans is simply not as critical to success as it once was. Chapter 26 begins by looking at the distribution planning process itself. Despite all the changes, the core of the planning process is much as it always was, even if the metrics used and context within which it works have changed dramatically. Planning still involves setting goals, identifying and evaluating options, and selecting the best option. Each of these planning steps is examined in detail, along with its common pitfalls. Short- and longrange planning are defined and their different purposes and procedures studied. Finally, the functional steps involved in T&D planning, and the tools they use, are presented in detail. Chapter 27 looks at how the forecasting tools covered in Chapter 25 are used, and how planners organize themselves and their forecast-translated-to-capability-need methodology so that they can efficiently accommodate their company's requirements. In a modern highutilization ratio, just-in-time utility, correctly anticipating future needs could be said to be the critical part of planning. Fully half of all recent large-scale outages and blackouts have been due, at least in part, to deficiencies that started with poor recognition or anticipation of future system capability needs. Chapter 28 looks at balancing reliability against spending. Many power engineers buying this book will consider this its key chapter. It presents the basics of reliability-based distribution planning including processes and procedures aimed at achieving specific reliability targets. But at most electric delivery utilities there is more involved than just a reliability-based approach and an explicit focus on attaining reliability targets. To be successful, reliability-based planning must be interfaced into the "business" framework of an electric utility. This includes a three-way melding of the traditional T&D planning tools and methods (Chapters 17, 20, 23, 24 and 26), reliability-based analysis engineering (Chapters 14, 21 and 23) and "bang for the buck" prioritization methodologies and budgetconstrained planning methods covered in Chapter 6. When successfully integrated into a utility's investment, system, and operational planning functions, this is often called asset
Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

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management. Since these concepts are new, and represent a considerable step change to most utilities, the chapter also includes a simple but effective "cookbook" on CERI (CostEffective Reliability Improvement) projects used to bootstrap a utility's move toward explicit cost- or spending-based management of reliability. Chapter 29 is a considerable departure from previous chapters and sure to be somewhat controversial and discomforting to some planners. It discusses objectivity and accuracy in distribution planning, frankly and explicitly addressing the fact that some planning studies are deliberately biased in both their analysis and their reporting, so that they do not present a truly balanced representation and comparison of alternatives based on their merits. As shown, there is a legitimate, and in fact critical, need for such reports in the power industry, and there is nothing unethical about a planning study that declares its intent to "make a case" for a particular option with an advantageous set of assumptions and analysis. But the sad truth is that some planning studies contain hidden bias, because of unintended mistakes, or deliberate efforts to misrepresent a truthful evaluation. Part of this chapter is a "tutorial on cheating" - giving rules and examples of how to disguise a very biased analysis so that it gives the appearance of objectivity and balance. This is then used to show how planners can review a report for both accuracy and objectivity, and how to detect both unintended mistakes as well as bias that has been carefully hidden. Chapter 30 concludes with a summary and integrating perspective on the book's key points as well as a set of guidelines and recommendations for modern distribution planners. Along with Chapter 1, it provides a good "executive summary" to both T&D systems and planning for a modern utility. This book, along with a companion volume (Spatial Electric Load Forecasting, Marcel Dekker, 2002), took more than a decade to complete. I wish to thank many good friends and colleagues, including especially Jim Bouford, Richard Brown, Mike Engel, James Northcote-Green, Hahn Tram, Gary Rackliffe, Randy Schrieber and Greg Welch, for their encouragement and willing support. I also want to thank Rita Lazazzaro and Lila Harris at Marcel Dekker, Inc., for their involvement and efforts to make this book a quality effort. Most of all, I wish to thank my wife, Lorrin Philipson, for the many hours of review and editorial work she unselfishly gave in support of this book, and for her constant, loving support, without which this book would never have been completed. H. Lee Willis

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

Contents
Series Introduction Preface Hi iv

Power Delivery Systems 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 Introduction T&D System's Mission Reliability of Power Delivery The "Natural Laws of T&D" Levels of the T&D System Utility Distribution Equipment T&D Costs Types of Distribution System Design The Systems Approach and Two-Q Planning Summary of Key Points References and Bibliography

1 1 2 3 6 8 16 21 29 35 41 45 47 47 49 59 75 78 82 84
XIII

Consumer Demand and Electric Load 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 The Two Qs: Quantity and Quality of Power Quantity of Power Demand: Electric Load Electric Consumer Demand for Quality of Power The Market Comb and Consumer Values Two-Q Analysis: Quantity and Quality Versus Cost Conclusion and Summary References

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

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Contents

Electric Load, Coincidence, and Behavior 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Introduction Peak Load, Diversity, and Load Curve Behavior Measuring and Modeling Load Curves Summary References

85 85 85 94 102 102 103 103 107 111 117 120 131 133 135 135 136 141 158 163 165 167 167 167 178 185 195 219 221 230 231 231 232 246 259 263 266

Power System Reliability 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 Introduction Outages Cause Interruptions Reliability Indices Comparison of Reliability Indices Among Utilities Benchmarking Reliability Conclusion and Summary References and Further Reading

Economics and Evaluation of Cost 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 Introduction Costs Time Value of Money Variability of Costs Conclusion References

Evaluation, Prioritization, and Approval 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 Decisions and Commitments Evaluation, Comparison, Prioritization, and Approval Traditional Regulated Utility Least-Cost Planning The Benefit/Cost Ratio Paradigm Incremental Benefit/Cost Evaluation Profit-Based Planning Paradigms Summary, Comments, and Conclusion References and Bibliography

Equipment Ratings, Loadings, Lifetime, and Failure 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 Introduction Capacity Ratings and Lifetime Aging, Deterioration, and Damage Measures to Improve Equipment Reliability and Life Conclusion and Summary For Further Reading

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

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Equipment Failures and System Performance 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 Introduction Equipment Failure Rate Increases with Age A Look at Failure and Age in a Utility System Conclusion and Summary References

267 267 267 274 282 282 283 283 285 291 298 301 310 328 330 331 331 332 356 363 373 378 387 387 389 389 389 399 407 418 418 419 419 423 428 436 443 446 448 448

Load Reach and Volt-VAR Engineering 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 Introduction Voltage Behavior on a Distribution System Load Reach and Distribution Capability Load Reach, the Systems Approach, and Current and Voltage Performance Optimization 9.5 Managing Voltage Drop on Distribution Systems 9.6 Volt-VAR Control and Correction 9.7 Summary of Key Points References

10 Distributed Resources 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 Managing Two-Q Demand on the Consumer Side Energy and Demand Management Methods Conservation Voltage Reduction Distributed Generation Electric Energy Storage Systems Distributed Resource Cost Evaluation Summary Bibliography

11 Basic Line Segment and Transformer Sizing Economics 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Distribution Lines 11.3 Transformers 11.4 Basic Equipment Selection Economics 11.5 Conclusion References and Bibliography 12 Choosing the Right Set of Line and Equipment Sizes 12.1 Introduction 12.2 Using Economic Loading and Voltage Drop Well 12.3 Economy and Performance of a Conductor Set 12.4 Conductor Set Design: Fundamental Aspects 12.5 Recommended Method for Conductor Set Design 12.6 Standard Transformer Sets 12.7 Conclusion References and Bibliography

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

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13 Distribution Feeder Layout 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 Introduction The Feeder System Radial and Loop Feeder Layout Dual-Voltage Feeders Summary of Key Points References

449 449 449 465 470 476 476 477 477 486 494 497 505 523 550 550 553 553 554 558 564 570 574 577 579 579 581 591 598 602 604 606 610 613 613 615 615 615 625 651 659 659

14 Feeder Layout, Switching, and Reliability 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 Introduction Designing Reliability into the Primary Feeder (MV) Level Feeder System Strength Contingency-Based Versus Reliability-Based Planning Contingency Support and Switching Design Protection and Sectionalization of the Feeder System Summary of Key Points References and Bibliography

15 Multi-Feeder Layout 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 Introduction How Many Feeders in a Substation Service Area? Planning the Feeder System Planning for Load Growth Formulae for Estimating Feeder System Cost Conclusion and Summary References

16 Distribution Substations 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 Introduction High-Side Substation Equipment and Layout Transformer Portion of a Substation Low-Side Portion of a Substation The Substation Site Substation Costs, Capacity, and Reliability Substation Standardization Substation Planning and the Concept of "Transformer Units" Conclusion and Summary References and Bibliography

17 Distribution System Layout 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 Introduction The T&D System in Its Entirety Design Interrelationships Example of a System Dominated by Voltage Drop, Not Capacity Conclusion and Summary References and Bibliography

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

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18 Substation Siting and System Expansion Planning 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 Introduction Substation Location, Capacity, and Service Area Substation Siting and Sizing Economics Substation-Level Planning: The Art Guidelines to Achieve Low Cost in Substation Siting and Sizing Substation-Level Planning: The Science Planning with Modular Substations Summary: The Most Important Point About Substation-Level Planning References and Bibliography

661 661 661 666 682 685 689 698 703 703 705 705 705 706 711 716 725 733 733 735 735 737 749 751 752 756 756 757 757 761 772 775 783 783 785 785 787 790 798 803 810 817 818

19 Service Level Layout and Planning 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.7 Introduction The Service Level Types of Service Level Layout Load Dynamics, Coincidence, and Their Interaction with the Service Level Service-Level Planning and Layout High Reliability Service-Level Systems Conclusion References

20 Planning Goals and Criteria 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.6 Introduction Voltage and Customer Service Criteria and Guidelines Other Distribution Design and Operating Guidelines Load Ratings and Loading Guidelines Equipment and Design Criteria Summary of Key Points References and Bibliography

21 Reliability-Related Criteria and Their Use 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.5 Introduction Reliability Metrics, Targets, and Criteria Practical Issues of Reliability-Based Criteria Approaches and Criteria for Targeted Reliability Planning Summary of Key Points References and Bibliography

22 Distribution Circuit Electrical Analysis 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.7 Introduction Models, Algorithms, and Computer Programs Circuit Models Models of Electric Load Types of Electrical Behavior System Models Coincidence and Load Flow Interaction Conclusion and Summary References and Bibliography

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

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23 Distribution System Reliability Analysis Methods 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.7 Introduction Contingency-Based Planning Methods Engineering Reliability Directly Analytical Distribution System Reliability Assessment Important Aspects of Reliability Assessment Reliability Simulation Studies and Financial Risk Assessment Conclusion and Key Points References and Bibliography

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24 Automated Planning Tools and Methods 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.6 Introduction Fast Ways to Find Good Alternatives Automated Feeder Planning Methods Substation-Level and Strategic Planning Tools Application of Planning Tools Conclusion and Summary References and Bibliography

25 T&D Load Forecasting Methods 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 Spatial Load Forecasting Load Growth Behavior Important Elements of a Spatial Forecast Trending Methods Simulation Methods for Spatial Load Forecasting Hybrid Trending-Simulation Methods Conclusion and Summary of Key Points References and Bibliography

26 Planning and the T&D Planning Process 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 Introduction Goals, Priorities, and Direction Tactical Planning: Finding the Best Alternative Short- Versus Long-Range Planning Uncertainty and Multi-Scenario Planning The Power Delivery Planning Process Summary and Key Points References and Bibliography

27 Practical Aspects of T&D Load Forecasting 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 The First Step in T&D Planning Weather Normalization and Design Criteria Selection of a Forecast Method Application of Spatial Forecast Methods Conclusion and Summary Bibliography and References

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

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28 Balancing Reliability and Spending 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 Introduction The Fundamental Concepts Optimizing Reliability Cost Effectiveness CERI - A Practical Method to "Bootstrap" Reliability Improvement Required Tools and Resources for Reliability Planning "Equitableness" Issues in Reliability Optimization Approaches to Setting and Planning Reliability Targets Asset Management Conclusion and Summary References and Bibliography

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29 Objectivity, Bias, and Accuracy in Planning 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 Introduction and Purpose of this Chapter Objective Evaluation, Proponent Study, or Simply Poor Work? Ways that Bias Makes Its Way into a T&D Planning Study The "Rules" Used to Bias Planning Studies in an Unseen Manner Areas Where Bias or Mistakes Are Often Introduced into a Study Examples of Bogus, Proponent, and Masked Studies Guidelines for Detecting, Finding, and Evaluating Bias Summary and Conclusion: Forewarned is Forearmed References

30 Key Points, Guidelines, Recommendations 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 Introduction On Distribution Systems On Utilities and Utility Practices On Planning Well References

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.