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COMMODITY
Market

Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Base Metals Surges Tracking Firm Global Cues

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Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Economic Data
Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Fundamental Market Overview

Market
watch GOLD FALLS ON WEAK COMMODS, FEWER SAFETY BIDS
percent as some investors covered shorts ahead of the long U.S. holiday weekend, with all eyes on U.S. manufacturing data due later in the day. European shares meanwhile we're on track for a fifth day of gains, led by a rally in banking stocks after the Greek parliament approved a final vote on austerity measures. DEBT BURDENS Gold is on track for a second consecutive weekly loss, of around 0.6 percent. In the world's biggest Gold consumer, India, physical buying edged up as traders continued to see Gold below the keenly watched $1,500 an ounce level as a bargain, but buying was muted due to a seasonal lull in demand. Gold fell more than 1 percent on Friday to a six-week low, hurt by a drop in oil prices, gains in the dollar versus a currency basket, and Greece's approval of an austerity package, which cut the metal's appeal as a haven from risk. Spot Gold fell as low as $1,481.70 an ounce, its weakest since May 17, and was bid at $1,483.24 an ounce, against $1,499.60 late in New York on Thursday. U.S. Gold futures for August delivery fell $19.10 to $1,483.70. The metal came under pressure as the dollar index rebounded and U.S. Crude futures fell more than $2 a barrel on Friday after disappointing economic data from China, where factory output in June grew at the slowest pace in 28 months. The Greek parliament's acceptance this week of a package of austerity measures needed to obtain further funding from the European Union and International Monetary Fund has tempered some risk aversion in the market, curbing demand for Gold. The dollar index firmed 0.2

Mon Jul 4 Tue Jul 5

All Day

USD

Bank Holiday

7:30pm

USD

Factory Orders m/m

1.1%

1.1%

Wed Jul 6

5:00pm 7:30pm

USD USD

Challenger Job Cuts y/y ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.0

-4.3% 54.6

Thu Jul 7

5:45pm 6:00pm 8:00pm 8:30pm

USD USD USD USD

Challenger Job Cuts y/y Unemployment Claims Natural Gas Storage Crude Oil Inventories

66K 421K

38K 428K 78B

Market
watch

NYMEX-CRUDE DIPS ON CHINA DATA, BUT ENDS WEEK UP

$3.78, or 4.15 percent, from the $91.16 close on June 24. Top exporter Saudi Arabia is unlikely to cut Crude prices deeply enough in August to persuade Asian refiners to buy much more oil. UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS American Petroleum Institute's weekly oil inventory data, 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT), Wednesday, delayed a day due to the July 4th holiday. Energy Information Administration's weekly oil inventory data, 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT), also delayed a day due to the Independence Day holiday.

54.0

-4.4M

Fri Jul 8

6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm

USD USD USD USD USD

Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Claims Average Hourly Earnings m/m Wholesale Inventories m/m Consumer Credit m/m

87K 9.1% 0.2% 0.6% 5.1B

54K 9.1% 0.3% 0.8% 6.2B

U.S. Crude futures fell on Friday, ending three days of gains, as soft Chinese factory data sparked fresh demand worries, but a report of strong U.S. manufacturing activity underpinned the market. A late flurry of short-covering ahead of the three-day July 4th U.S. holiday weekend also limited losses. Pre-holiday trading volume was light. U.S. Crude futures closed the week higher, bouncing up from four-month lows hit after last week's surprise move by the 28-nation International Energy Agency to release 60 million barrels of oil reserves. It was the first weekly gain for Crude futures after four weeks of declines, and analysts said the market had digested the IEA decision to tap reserves. The U.S. Department of Energy listed the apparent winning bidders to the 30.2 million barrels it planned to sell as part of the coordinated IEA action. The preliminary results represented "acceptable" offers based on prices and are not final. FUNDAMENTALS On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude for August delivery settled at $94.94 a barrel, falling 48 cents, or 0.5 percent, after trading between $93.45 to $95.39. For the week, front-month Crude gained

Sat Jul 9

12:30am

Market
watch

COPPER RISES FOR FOURTH DAY ON BRIGHT U.S. DATA

Risk appetite was boosted on Thursday after data showed factory activity in the U.S. Midwest accelerated in June, fostering hopes of a pick-up in economic growth. Although Copper looked good on technical charts, fundamentals were not very supportive and may prompt some selling next week. A stronger dollar against a basket of currencies was also capping gains. The dollar extended gains against the yen and euro on after data showed business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector came in stronger than expected in June. A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-prices commodities costlier for holders of other currencies.

Copper steadied on Friday after mixed data showed the pace of manufacturing growth in the United States had increased in June, but that factory activity in top metals consumer China had slowed raising concerns about demand. Three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange closed at $9,435 a tonne, after rallying to its highest in two months on Thursday after Greece rubber-stamped an austerity plan to save the country from bankruptcy. It was at $9,430 a tonne at the close on Thursday. China's official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June fell to 50.9 from 52 in May, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said on Friday. This was less than the 51.3 expected by the market. HSBC's China PMI for June also dipped from 51.6 to 50.1, the lowest in 11 months. The pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector however, picked up for the first time in four months in June, a sign of optimism for the sputtering economy, according to an industry report.

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Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

GOLD

SILVER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 1564 1528 1505 1491 1469 1455 1418

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Gold is in a consolidation phase. Last week COMEX Gold was sustaining at lower levels and closed below its 6 week low. In the coming week 1460 $ will act as a major support in COMEX Gold. If COMEX Gold sustains above 1460 $ an ounce then above 1490 $ an ounce it can touch the level of 1505$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1460$ then it can go slightly down and test the level of 1442$ an ounce.

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Silver is technically weak on charts. Last week COMEX Silver was sustaining at lower levels and closed near to its week low. For the upcoming week 3230$ and 3020$ are the crucial supports and 3800$ and 4000$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 54000 and 57000 will act as major resistance and 49000 and 47000 will act as major supports.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 3761 3585 3477 3408 3301 3232 3055

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains below 1460 $ an ounce, then above 1490$ it can test the level of 1505$ an ounce and above 1525$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses. Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1460$ and 1425$. Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1560$ and 1590$ Major support in MCX Gold is 21500 and 21100 Major resistance in MCX Gold is 22200 and 22500

STRATEGY
Technically COMEX Silver is weak on charts. For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy if Silver sustains below the level of 3430$ an ounce, then below 3340$ an ounce it can go down and can test the level of 3250$ an ounce. Trade by keeping the proper stop losses.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

CRUDE

COPPER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 105.92 99.69 97.31 93.46 91.08 87.23 81.00

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week Crude oil was sustaining at higher level for most part of the week. For the coming week 88$ and 84.85$ will act as major supports and 98$ and 104.50$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4400 and 4650 and major supports will be 4050 and 3950.

MARKET OVERVIEW
Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy on lower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was sustaining at higher level and closed near to its week high. If next week COMEX Copper does not sustains above the level of 430 then below the level of 425 Copper can test the level of 420. In MCX Copper sustains below 425 then below 421 it can test the level of 416 if it does not break the level of 432 on the upside.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 475.75 449.05 439.6 422.35 412.95 395.65 368.95

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains above the level of 91 $ a barrel then above 96$ it can slightly come up and touch the level of 97.5 $ a barrel and in MCX if Crude sustains above 4140 then above 4300 it can touch the level of 4350.Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 445 and 455 will act as major resistance and 415 and 405 will act as major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 430 and 440 and supports would be found at 410 and 400.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

NATURAL GAS

USD / INR

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4.765 4.537 4.424 4.309 4.196 4.081 3.853

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on lower levels. Last week Natural Gas was consolidating for most part of the week but on the last two days it came up. If next week Natural Gas sustains above the level of 4.200 $ then above the level of 4.400$ Natural Gas can test the level of 4.490 $ and below 4.150 $ Natural Gas can slightly go down and test the level of 4.050 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains above 194 in the coming week then it can test the level of 200, if it does not break the level of 188 on the downside.

MARKET OVERVIEW
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lower levels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 45.0000 then above the level of 45.1300 USD/INR can test the level of 45.2500 and below 44.5000 USD/INR can slightly go down and test the level of 44.2500.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 45.9900 45.3700 44.9900 44.7500 44.3700 44.1300 43.5100

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 44.1500 and 43.9000 will act as major supports and 45.4500 and 46.0500 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 4.100$ and 3.800$ will act as major supports and 4.730$ and 5.030$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 201 and 207, supports would be found at 188 and 182.

Weekly Chart

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Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX

5 -AUG -11 5-SEP -11 30-AUG -11 19-JUL-11 26-JUL -11 29-JUL -11 29-JUL -11 29-JUL -11 29-JUL -11

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS LEAD NICKEL ALUMINIUM

RS. / 10GM. RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS/QUINTAL RS. / BBL. RS./ MM BTU RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS. / KG.

22199 52793 411.4 4126 193.6 115.9 101.5 1003.6 113

22211 52490 410.55 4120 193.5 115.4 101 1001.2 112.9

22225 53313 426.4 4300 198.2 119.35 106.35 1057 114.1

21612 50782 406.85 4062 189.6 114.35 100.7 993.1 111.3

21695 51358 425.9 4238 193.7 118.95 105.25 1037.9 111.7

158978 161631 296403 1146191 135804 35051 49519 112227 12355

-504 -1435 14.5 112 0.1 3.05 3.75 34.3 -1.25

16906 14321 31540 22469 6181 4226 3040 6478 2979

3450050.33 2474880.57 1228424.56 4779252.37 328820.74 204853.38 256446.30 289453.00 68906.83

* Turnover Till Friday

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Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch

International Market
Commodity
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS USD/INR

Weekly Pivots
Closing Price
1482.6 3370.5 430.25 94.94 4.357 44.62

% Change
-1.22 -2.73 4.54 4.15 3.03 -0.82

Scripts
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

R3
23070.00 56879.67 458.82 4676.00 211.03 127.55 115.40 1157.13 117.98

R2
22457.00 54348.67 439.27 4438.00 202.43 122.55 109.75 1093.23 115.18

R1
22076.00 52853.33 432.58 4338.00 198.07 120.75 107.50 1065.57 113.47

PP
21844.00 51817.67 419.72 4200.00 193.83 117.55 104.10 1029.33 112.38

S1
21463.00 50322.33 413.03 4100.00 189.47 115.75 101.85 1001.67 110.67

S2
21231.00 49286.67 400.17 3962.00 185.23 112.55 98.45 965.43 109.58

S3
20618.00 46755.67 380.62 3724.00 176.63 107.55 92.80 901.53 106.78

Weekly Gainers
Commodity ZINC COPPER NICKEL Expiry Date 29 JUL-11 30 AUG-11 29 JUL-11 Closing Price 105.25 425.90 1037.90 % Change 3.70 3.53 3.42

Weekly Losers
Commodity SILVER GOLD ALUMINIUM Expiry Date 05 SEP -11 05 AUG -11 29 JUL-11 Closing Price 51358 21695 111.75 % Change -2.72 -2.27 -1.11

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