QuickS Q StartG Guide fo orUsin ngOptimizat tionin nLEAP P

Char rlesHeaps, ,LEAPDev veloper,SE EI www.ene ergycommu unity.org leap@sei us.org

5/6/2011 5 Importantnote:Curre entlytheoptim mizationfeaturesinLEAP2 2011arestillexperimentalandshouldbe usedfort testingpurposesonly.Wh hilewebelievethattheop ptimizationca alculationwor rkwell,wealso welcomefeedbackfromusersonanyissuesthey ymayidentif fy.Theoptim mizationcalculationsshouldnot yetberelieduponforthepreparati ionofanyfinalanalyseso rreports.We eexpecttofinalizethese aspectsin nthecomingf fewmonths.

Introduction
LEAP2011 1includesnewcapabilities stoautomati icallycalculat teleastcostc capacityexpansionand dispatcho ofsupplyside eTransformat tionmodules s.Thisnewca apabilityworksthroughin ntegrationwit ththe newOpen nSourceEner rgyModelingSystem(OSe eMOSYS),whiichhasbeendevelopedby yacoalitiono of organizationsincluding gSEI,theInte ernationalAto omicEnergyA Agency(IAEA A),theUnitedNationsIndu ustrial Developm mentOrganiza ation(UNIDO),theUKEne ergyResearch hCenter,andtheRoyalTec chnicalUnive ersity (KTH)inS Sweden.OSeMOSYSintur rndependson ntheGNULin nearProgram mmingKit(GLPK),asoftware toolkitint tendedforsolvinglargescalelinearpro ogrammingpr roblemsbym meansofther revisedsimplex method.B BothOSeMOS SYSandGLPK Kareopensourcefreelydiistributedtoo ols.Botharei includedasp partof LEAP'ssta andardinstallationandbot tharefullyin ntegratedinto oLEAP'suserinterface.No oadditional softwareisneededtouseoptimizat tioninLEAP. Typicallyy youwillusethisnewcapabilitytocalcu ulatetheopti malexpansio onanddispatchofpower plantsfor ranelectricsy ystem,where eoptimalisdefinedasthe eenergysyste emwiththelo owesttotalnet presentvalueoftheso ocialcostsofsystemovert theentirepe riodofcalcul lation(fromt thebaseyear throughtotheendyea ar). 1

IncalculatingtheoptimalsystemLEAPtakesintoaccountalloftherelevantcostsandbenefitsincurred inthesystemincluding: Capitalcostsforbuildingnewprocesses. Salvagevalues(ordecommissioningcosts)fordecommissioningprocesses Fixedandvariableoperatingandmaintenancecosts Fuelcosts Environmentalexternalityvalues(i.e.pollutiondamageorabatementcosts).

Theleastcostsystemcanoptionallybecalculatedsubjecttoanumberofuserspecifiedconstraints includingmaximumannuallevelsofemissionsforanygivenpollutant(CO2,SOx,NOx,PM10,etc.)and minimumormaximumcapacitiesforcertainplanttypes.Soforexample,apathwayforanenergy systemcouldbecalculatedthatmetaminimumrenewableportfoliostandard(RPS)whilstalsostaying withinatargetforreducinggreenhousegas(GHG)emission. TheconnectionbetweenLEAPandGLPK/OSeMOSYSiscompletelytransparent,sothatusersofLEAP needneverinteractdirectlywithOSeMOSYSorGLPKoranyoftheirdataorresultsfiles.LEAP automaticallywritesthedatafilesrequiredbyOSeMOSYSmakinguseofthesamedatayoualready inputintoLEAPincludingprocessefficiencies,availabilityrates,emissionfactors,unitcapitalcosts,fixed andvariableO&Mcosts,fuelcostsandexternalityvalues.Theresultsoftheoptimizationarethenread backintoLEAPsothatallrelevantresultscanbeviewedinLEAPinitsstandardResults,EnergyBalance andCostBenefitreports. UsingoptimizationinLEAPisstraightforward.Optimizationcanoptionallybeusedinoneormore scenariosforcalculatingcapacityexpansion,whilstotherscenarioscancontinuetousetheprevious accountingandsimulationcalculationsinwhichtheuserspecifiestheexpansionpathway.The optimizationmethodcalculatesbothcapacityexpansion(howmanyfuturemegawattsofpowerplants willbebuilt)andprocessdispatch(howmanymegawatthoursofeachpowerplantwillbedispatchedin eachtimesliceofeachyear). YoucanchoosetousetheoptimaldispatchinformationfromOSeMOSYSbackintoLEAP,oryoucan overridetheOSeMOSYSdispatchcalculationsandcontinuetouseoneofLEAPsbuiltindispatchrules (e.g.meritorderorrunningcostdispatch). Onethingtorememberwithoptimizationcalculationsisthatthemodeltellstheuserwhatfuture configurationoftheenergysystemwillyieldthelowestoverallcosttosociety.Suchpathwaysmaynot necessarilyrepresentrealisticpolicyoptionsinaparticularcountryformanydifferentreasonssuchas thesocialandenvironmentalacceptabilityofcertaintechnologiesortheneedtopreservediversityand energysecurity.Ontheotherhand,withLEAPssimpleraccountingcalculationstheusertellsthemodel whatenergysystemyouwanttoseebuilt.Thatis,youhavetouseyourexpertjudgmenttoassesswhat pathwaysarefeasible.Thesepathwaysarenotnecessarilyoptimalinthesenseofbeingleastcost. Notethattheoptimalityofagivenpathwaymaybeverysensitivetoinputassumptionssuchasfuture capitalcosts,futureefficiencyassumptions,futurefuelcostsorfutureGHGmitigationtargets.Asystem 2

timalforaco ountryunderonesetofass sumptions(e .g.lowgrowt thinfuelprices)maybefa ar thatisopt fromoptimalunderan nothersetofa assumptions(e.g.highgro owthinoilpri ices).Genera ally,thegoalin energypla anningisnottoidentifyasingleoptima alsolution,bu utrathertoid dentifyrobus stenergypolicies thatwork kwellundera arangeofplausibleinputa assumptions. Youcaneas silyuseLEAP sscenario capabilitie estocalculateexplorediff ferentoptima alsolutionsu nderdifferen ntsetsofinpu utassumption 1. ns

KeySte epsforU UsingOptimization ninLEAP

Thefollow wingarethek keystepsforsettingupop ptimizationin LEAP: S Step1:CheckthatOSeMOSYS is sproperlyinst talledbyvisit ting th heOptimizationtabofLEA APs General:BasicParameters sc creen.Herey youcanalso sp pecifywhethe eryouwishto o sp pecifyanyem missions co onstraintsandwhetheryo ou wishtohaveLEAPmakeuseof w itsoptimaldisp patch alculations.If fnot,LEAPw will ca us seoneofitso owndispatch hrules. St tep2:SelecttheTransformationmodu uleforwhich youwishtoc calculateano optimalcapac city ex xpansionpath hway.Typica allythiswillbethemodule einyourLEAP Pdatasettha atdealswith electricitygene eration.Tran nsformationm modulesarel istedimmedi iatelybelowt thetoplevel ransformationbranchinth heLEAPtreestructure(vis sibleintheAn nalysisView). Tr tep3:Makes sureyouhave einputtheminimumlevellofdatarequ uiredforanoptimization St ca alculation.Optimizationc calculationsre equiremores supportingda atathanLEAP Psbasic ac ccountingcalculations.Inparticularyo ouneedtospe ecifyprocess sefficienciesa andavailabilit ty ra ates,unitcapitalcosts,fixe edandvariab bleO&Mcost s,and(where eappropriate e)fuelcosts.If yo ouareanalyz zingGHGorlo ocalairpollut tionemission sandwishto oconsideranoptimalsyste em th hattakesinto oaccountpoll lutiondamagecoststheny youwillalsoneedtospecifyemission sedatavalue fa actorsandpo ollutantextern nalityvalues.Mostofthes esarespecifie edforthe processesliste edunderthes selectedTran nsformationm module.Unit tfuelcostsmustbespecifi ied withintheIndi w igenousCostvariableinth hefuelbranc heslocatedu undertheRes sourcestree branch.Ifyouwishtospec cifyanemissio onconstraint t,dosounder rthetopleve elEmission

Thisprocesscouldeven nbeautomated dbyintegratin ngaMonteCar rlomodelingapproachwithL LEAPusingLEA APs teCarlosimulationisusedto ohelpidentifyb bytakingintoa omnessandinv vestigating API.Mont accountrando thousands ofdifferentin nputassumptio ons.

Constraintstreebranch. Step4:CreateascenariointheManageScenariosscreenthatwillbecalculatedusingthe optimizationmethodology. Step5:WhileeditingthisscenarioinAnalysisViewsettheOptimizationvariablelocatedatthe TransformationmodulebranchtoYesorTrue. Step6:Optionally,YoucanalsospecifyadditionalconstraintsfortheMinimumCapacityand theMaximumcapacityforeachprocesswithintheoptimizedTransformationmodule.

Notethatyoucansetupmultiplescenarios,oneormoreofwhichcancalculateanoptimizedexpansion pathwaywithdifferentassumptions.Forexample,differentpathwaymaymakedifferentassumptions abouteconomicgrowth,fuelpriceinflationandmitigationtargets.

ViewingResults
Onceyouhavefollowedtheabovesteps youmaynowgototheResultsviewtosee resultsforthisscenario.LEAPwillfirst attempttocalculatethescenario,invoking OSeMOSYSasneededtocalculatethe leastcostexpansionpathwayandtheleast costpatternofdispatchfortheprocesses withintheoptimizedTransformation module.LEAPwillappeartopausefora fewmomentseachtimeOSeMOSYSis called.Oncetheoptimizationcalculations arecomplete,LEAPsowncalculationswill continue.IftheOSeMOSYScalculations failtosolve(i.e.theyfailtofindanoptimal pathway)thenLEAPscalculationswillbe halted,anerrormessagewillbedisplayed andyouwillbegivenanopportunityto reviewthedetaileddebuggingmessages fromOSeMOSYS.
LEAP Interface Data + Scenario Management

Accounting/Simulation Scenarios

Scenarios with Electric Sector Optimization

OSeMOSYS Model File

Demand Calculations

OSeMOSYS Data File

GNU Math Prog (Open Source LP Solver)

Transformation Calculations

Results for LEAP

Optimization of Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Plan

Non Energy Sources + Sinks Calculations Accounting Calculations

OSeMOSYS

LEAP Interface Results Reporting (Charts & Tables)

GettingMoreInformation
VisitthefollowingresourcestogetmoredetailsaboutthealgorithmsintheOSeMOSYSmodel,andthe operationoftheGLPKtoolkit. OSeMOSYSwebsite: www.osemosys.org OsEMOSYSDocumentation http://osmosys.yolasite.com/resources/OSMOSYS%202009_1_1.pdf GLPKwebsite: http://www.gnu.org/software/glpk/

Contacts
leap@seius.org www.energycommunity.organdwww.seiinternational.org