Coastal and Marine Sector

Coastal and Marine Sector
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TABLE OF CONTENT
TABLE OF CONTENT......................................................................i BAB 1. INTRODUCTION..................................................................1 I.1 I.2 I.3 I.4 Background...............................................................................1 Objectives and Targets.............................................................6 Superficial.................................................................................8 Scope........................................................................................8 I.4.1 Scope of Study ..........................................................................9 I.4.2 Area Scope.................................................................................9 I.5 I.6 I.7 CHAPTER Benefits...................................................................................10 Legal, Law and Government Regulation.................................11 Structure of the Report ........................................................14 2. SECTOR OVERVIEW IN COASTAL AND MARINE IN LOMBOK ISLAND......................................................16 2.1 Location and Width Area.......................................................16 2.2. Geology...............................................................................17 2.3. Coastal and Sea Areas..........................................................19 2.4. Population.............................................................................20 2.5. Sosial Ekonomi Masyarakat Pesisir.......................................23 2.6. Climate and Atmosphere Sea Oceanographics Conditions 24 2.6.1. Rainfall patterns and Surface runoff ......................................24 2.6.2. Air Temperature and Sea Surface Temperature ....................28 2.6.3. High Flow Front Sea and Relationship with ENSO...................32 2.6.3.1. El Nino and La Nina and the relationship with the High Sea Front ....................................................................................36 2.6.4. Tidal around Lombok Island...................................................38 2.6.5. Sea Waves and Storm ...........................................................40 2.6.6. Tsunami ................................................................................47 chapter 3. HAZARD STUDY METHODOLOGY, VULNERABILITY AND RISKS......................................................................49 3.2. Approach, the General Framwork and the Methods of study ............................................................................................51 3.2.1. General Study approach........................................................52 3.2.2. Data collection Method..........................................................57 3.3. Hazard Study Methodology...................................................58 3.3.1. Hazards in Coastal and Marine Area.......................................58 3.3.2. Superficial Hazard Analysis....................................................68 3.4. Vulnerability Study Approach................................................68 III Chapter. 4. Potential Hazard Analysis, Vulnerability, and Risk ..............................................................................78
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IV Bibliography .......................................................................115 V List of Abbreviations ............................................................118 VI Appendix ............................................................................122 Appendix I Potential immersion ..............................................122 Appendix II Susceptibility and weighting ................................129 Appendix III Analysis Risk Level ...............................................156 Appendix IV Potential Impact on Buildings and Infrastructure in the City of Mataram and Surrounding area ......................166
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Location Lombok Island 16 Figure 2.2 Geological Map of Lombok Island 17 Figure 2.3 Density distribution in Lombok Island 20 Figure 2.4 Pattern of Wind and Sea Surface Temperature (SPL) In (a) In January and (b) Month August 23 Figure 2.5 Cycle Average Annual Rainfall In the island of Lombok and Sumbawa 24 Figure 2.6 phenomenon Rainfall Pattern Change (a) and temperature (b), Case in Lombok Island 25 Figure 2.7 (a) Position Mooring Point Sea Temperature Measurement, (b) Temperature Measurement Results Sea Front, and (c) The rate of increase in temperature for Every Station 27 Figure 2.8 SPL on the North Coast and South Island of Lombok by NOAA OI SST data, from January 1981 until September 2008 28 Figure 2.9 Annual Cycle Average SPL in the North Coast and South Island of Lombok (1981-2008), NOAA OI SST 29 Figure 2.10 The distribution of sea level and pattern of flow in January (left) and August (Right). High Front Sea and Air Flow Pattern is the Monthly Average for Year 7, 1993 Until the Year 1999 31 Figure 2.11 Time Series Altimeter ADT (Absolute Dynamics Land Or Sea Level) anomalies and the SOI from January 1993 until September 2008 32 Figure 2.12 Distribution of Chlorophyll-A Month in August 1997 At the El Nino period of 33 Figure 2.13 High Annual Sea Front on the North Coast and South Lombok Island 35 Figure 2.14 Tidal elevation graph in Ampenan 36
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Wave Height Fig. 2.15 Average In Month January (a) and August (b) and Maximum Wave (c). 38 Figure 2.16 SAR image on 23 April 1996 Date 39 Figure 2.17 The occurrence of cyclones Region 41 Figure 2.18 path of Tropical Cyclone in the Indian Ocean 42 Figure 2.19 Distribution of High Storm Waves Model Simulation Results For the South Coast of Java Island 43 Figure 2.20 Model 2006 Tsunami Pangandaran 44 Figure 3.1 Risk Chart notation. 51 Figure 3.2 Relationship Between One danger with Other Hazards Triggered by Against Climate Change Coastal and Marine Sector 54 Figure 3.3 Impact of Climate Change and Its Impact On Coastal and Marine Area 59 Figure 3.4 Example of subsidence result of Nias Earthquake 2005 60 Figure 3.5 Examples of Nias Earthquake Uplift Due 2005 61 Figure 3.6 Study Process Model 68 Figure 4.1 Schematic Elements Combinations Various Causes Increase of 75 Sea Front Figure 4.2 Trends in Sea Front rise in Darwin, Broome, Surabaya and Sandakan from 77 Tidal Data Figure 4.3 Projected sea-level rise in Benoa, Ambon, Broome, Darwin, Sandakan and Surabaya Based Linear Regeresi Analysis 77 Figure 4.4 Increase Distribution of Sea Water Front Height Up to Year 2100 Based on Satellite Data Altimetri 78 Figure 4.5 The trend increase in sea level Altimetri Satellite Data Based on 78
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Figure 4.6 Projected increase in sea level by 79 IPCC models Figure 4.7 The level of increase in SPL 80 Based on IPCC SRES Figure 4.8 Probability of Genesis of Individual Scenario 83 Figure 4.9 Map of the island of Lombok for immersion Year 2030 (a), 2080 (b) and 2100 (c) 84 Figure 4.10 Map of Mataram marinade and Sekitarnya Year 2030 (a), Year 2080 (b) and the Year 2100 (c). 86 Figure 4.11 Map Elements to Consider in Susceptibility The Analysis For Lombok Island Coastal Area 89 Figure 4.12 Map of Lombok Island Vulnerability Against Potential Without soaking (a) and with (b) Calculating Population Welfare Level 90 Figure 4.13 Map Elements to Consider in Susceptibility The Analysis for Coastal Areas and Sekitarnya Mataram 92 Figure 4.14 Against Potential Susceptibility Map immersion Without (a) and with (b) Calculating Population Welfare Level 93 Figure 4.15 Map for Disaster Risk Year 2030s (a), 2080s (b), and the 2100s (c) Without Taking Lombok Island Prosperity Factor 94 Figure 4.16 Map for Disaster Risk Year 2030s (a), 2080s (b), and the 2100s (c) With Lombok Island Calculating Welfare Factor 95 Figure 4.17 Map for Disaster Risk Year 2030s (a), 2080s (b), and the 2100s (c) The city of Mataram and Sekitarnya Without Taking Prosperity Factor 96 Figure 4.18 Risk Map In 2030s (a), 2080s (b), and the 2100s (c) The city of Mataram and Sekitarnya With Taking Prosperity Factor 97 Figure 5.1 Framework The Accompanied With Adaptation to Climate Change Mitigation 103
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Figure 5.2 Seven Steps in Order Process Climate Change Adaptation 104
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List of Tables Table 2.1 Total Population and density on the island of Lombok in 2007 20 Table 2.2 Tidal Components in Around Lombok Island 36 Table 3.1 Differences Between Vulnerability and Resilience 46 Table 3.2 Five Approaches In Climate Change Research 48 Table 3.3 Various Levels Vulnerability Study 50 Table 3.4 Elements and General Vulnerability Parameters 63 Table 3.5 Main Elements Vulnerability 63 Racing Boat Table 3.6 Elements of Strength and Endurance 66 Table 3.7 Impact of notation and Level 71 for Various Scenarios Table 4.1 Detailed Calculation Results Projected sea-level rise on the north coast Lombok Island 80 Table 4.2 Detailed Calculation Results Projected sea-level rise in South Beach Lombok Island 81 Table 4.3 Individual Potential Hazard Type 82 Table 4.4 Scenario Coastal immersion in Lombok Island 82 Table 4.5 The area immersion Lombok Island for the Year 2030, 2080, and 2100 84 Table 4.6 The area marinade and Sekitarnya Mataram City Year's 2030, 2080, and 2100 86 Table 4.7 The area Lombok Island Vulnerability Level 90 Table 4.8 The area rate Mataram Vulnerability and Sekitarnya Without and With Calculating Population Welfare Level 93
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Table 4.9 Level of Risk The area Lombok Island, Without and With Calculating Population Welfare Level 95 Table 4.10 Level of Risk The area and Sekitarnya Mataram, Without and With Calculating Population Welfare Level IV Using 97 Scenarios Table 4:11 The area Sub Risk Level Ampenan Without and With Calculating Population Welfare Level IV Using 98 Scenarios Table 4:12 Against Potential Impact on Buildings and Infrastructure Ampenan District 99 Table 5.1 Nine Priority Programs for Adaptation to Climate Change Coastal Sector, and Marine, 105
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BAB 1. INTRODUCTION I.1 Background
Various scientific studies show that climate change not only causes fluctuations (up and down) but also significant changes (trends), which indicates rapid warming of the earth's surface, atmosphere and ocean that occurred globally. The evidence of that has been systematically reported by official sources, including: Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for example reports from the IPCC (2007) concluded that: " The existence of new evidence and more powerful that global warming is happening the last 50 years is a result of human activity ". As inferred from the various references that climate change causes changes in rainfall patterns, rising sea temperatures, sea level rise and extreme climate events. The impact of climate change will further threaten the sustainability of human life existence. The conclusions above were drawn by number of approaches and different disciplines to show that the earth heats up more rapidly than during the period 1000 years ago. This is in line with the increase in greenhouse gases very quickly. Sea level has also increased since the early to mid 1800s. In the future, the increase in sea level is expected to accelerate. Although there is still uncertainty that occurs in predicting the changes, but overall the best predictor of the minimum course of the next 100 years will change more rapidly than natural variations over 10,000 years.
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Changes in climate parameters can only be estimated. The direction of change of some parameters such as temperature and sea level can be seen, but the size of the change is very small. Change parameters can also vary with the region. At the other parameters such as wave and ocean currents there is little understanding of how climate change could affect the direction and magnitude of these parameters. One of the sectors that is directly threatened by the dangers of sea level rise due to climate changes are the coastal and marine sectors. Human, and the ecosystem of marine and coastal areas are facing a tremendous danger caused by the sea level rise and other changes in parameters caused by climate changes such as tidal storm (rob), waves storm, ENSO on coastal areas, which causing environmental changes include: Inundation of wetlands and lowlands and the loss of Coastal erosion and reduction of coastal land Changes in tidal range at the edge/mouth of the bay The damage of coastal ecosystems (mangroves, coral Intrusion of salt water and decreased water quality. Flood and sediment supply to coastal areas due to The Increasing of the frequency of over toping on beach Changes on the curve pattern, both horizontally and
small islands
and the river reefs, sea grass, and estuary).
changes in rainfall and surface runoff buildings vertically (upwelling and down welling).
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Potential impacts arising out of this threat depends on the level of hazard and vulnerability levels in a region, which this is related to the utilization of coastal conditions, physiography, morphology, demography and socio-economic, including the human ability to adapt to these hazards. To find out how much the impact potential that will arise due to the threat, it is important to assess how much the level of vulnerability of the region. Having in mind the level of vulnerability and the resulting potential impact, step-by-step adaptation strategy need to be done to deal with these threats. Remembering that the geographical condition of Indonesia with its natural archipelago which are influenced by the sea, and population activities are generally located in coastal areas, marked by many major cities at the seaside and at the mouth of the river, it seemed that the Republic of Indonesia (NKRI ) is very vulnerable to sea level rise hazards and other hazards triggered by climate change. This vulnerability is not only a reduction in coastal areas due to immersion, but also related to the decrease of Homeland width due to the loss of the outer islands as a starting point of the border. This fact will be exacerbated by the level of education and welfare of coastal communities who do not understand the risks to the threat of dangers of climate change The study of the vulnerability to climate change has not been done in Indonesia, including a study on the vulnerability of coastal and marine sectors. One of the constraints in this study, and to note in the future is the lack of availability of data and this situation will become a big problem for Indonesia to do with the study of climate change, which requires the accelerated provision of information both observation data and the data on the impact of climate
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change and projections on the variability sea change in the future that have the potential to threaten coastal and marine areas As a first step of the study of climate change impacts on coastal and marine sector, the study developed a method along with examples of its implementation in accordance with the data and research resources are available. As a case study, selected the island of Lombok for example the location of the study, with consideration that the island of Lombok to represent the condition of medium-sized island, with the intention that this developed method, the future can be applied to both islands large and small. Susceptibility appears to face the danger resulting from conditions related to the utilization of existing coastal areas, as well as the human ability to adapt to these hazards. Risk of disaster had become the result to more of these hazards and vulnerabilities. Therefore a study is required on how much coastal vulnerability to hazards related to the sector, triggered by climate change. The study on the coastal vulnerability to hazards triggered by climate change is important in order to have a strategy to adapt to these hazards and their impact on coastal areas, especially in Indonesia, a country geographically diverse island with natural conditions in which large cities are generally located in coastal areas , and the potential loss of several small islands that have sufficient sloping land, compounded by levels of education and welfare of the vulnerable and the risk of the threat of climate change.
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Faced with these conditions, it is important to conduct a series of attempts to minimize the risk by getting information about how much impact on the sector, coastal and marine areas and sectors related, such as, how much danger is there, vulnerabilities, and risks faced by this sector of the current climate change and projections into the future. The answers to these problems will produce an adequate strategy to minimize the impact of climate change on coastal and marine sectors. The study of the vulnerability to climate change has not been done in Indonesia, including assessment of vulnerability of coastal and marine sectors. One of the most important aspect in the study, such as; where data availability is still a major problem for Indonesia. This situation requires the accelerated provision of information about the impacts of climate change and projections of the sector's coastal and marine areas, and therefore required an assessment methodology and implementation examples are adequate for the study resources available. In this study the methodology of meso-level (Massner, 2005 in Suroso, 2008) and Lombok Island was chosen as the location of the study sample is considered appropriate as a case study of climate change and strategies to deal with within the framework of adaptation to the disaster in Indonesia. Associated with climate change and coastal and marine sector in the island of Lombok, there are a number of questions in the background of this study, namely: 1) 2) Is climate change will provide significant impact for the What are the dangers posed by climate change sector, coastal and marine areas in the island of Lombok? associated with the sector's coastal and marine areas, and how
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much vulnerability and risks faced by the coastal and marine sectors of the hazard on the island of Lombok? and; 3) What kind of adaptation strategies are needed to minimize the impact of climate change on the coastal sector on the island of Lombok? 4) study. I.2 Objectives and Targets These questions above will try to be answered in this
The purpose of this study are: 1) 2) Develop a method of vulnerability and risk assessment in coastal and marine areas are regional in Indonesia with Lombok Island study area, which can then be used to identify, and facilitate the formulation of appropriate adaptation strategies to be implemented in Indonesia with regional conditions and the availability of data especially on the island of Lombok. 3) Information gathering on hazards, vulnerabilities and risks in coastal and marine areas to climate change with the meso-leve approach, climat change scenario (SRES: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), SRB1, SRA1B, and the IPCC in the SRA2 from the 2030 period, 2080's and 2100's and the necessary adaptation strategies to minimize vulnerability and risks are on the island of Lombok. 4) Furthermore, this experience is a learning that can be documented properly and systematically, which is expected to be a reference that can be used by the general public as an input to database vulnerability and adaptation strategies.
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5)
Availability of the manual which provides guidance and
steps to conduct a risk assessment of the impact of Climate Change for Local Government (Local Government). In the period, scenario projections and approaches used in the study as mentioned above, the goal of this study are: 1) Develop a method of vulnerability and risk assessment in coastal and marine areas are regional in Indonesia with Lombok Island study area, which can then be used to identify, and facilitate the formulation of appropriate adaptation strategies to be implemented in Indonesia with regional conditions and the availability of data especially on the island of Lombok. 2) Obtain the information on hazards, vulnerabilities and risks in coastal and marine areas to climate change with the meso-level approach, climate change scenario (SRES: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) SRB1, SRA1B, and the IPCC in the SRA2 from the 2030 period, 2080's and 2100's and the necessary adaptation strategies to minimize vulnerability and risks are on the island of Lombok. 3) Knowing the level of vulnerability and risk faced by coastal and marine sector in the island of Lombok due to climate change in the unit district-level administrative regions. 4) Knowing the vulnerabilities and risks to hazards sea unit of analysis regions adaptation district to level rise, ENSO, storm tide on the island of Lombok due to climate change in the administrative boundaries. 5) Identify the necessary strategies minimize vulnerability and risks from climate change to the sector's coastal and marine areas in the island of Lombok.
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I.3
Superficial
In the period, the scenario projections, approaches and methods used in the study as mentioned earlier, the output of this study are: 1) Chart and a brief explanation of the formulation of methodologies, models concepts, analysis methods, and flow studies and the selection of data used in the study of coastal sector vulnerabilities due to climate change and the tsunami. 2) marine Current conditions (baseline) sector of coastal and areas, including: the condition of coastal
geomorphology, demography, spatial, keseuaian land, the welfare of the unit of analysis regions district administrative boundaries. 3) The projection of sea level rise was then used to determine the immersion area (hazard map), by sea level rise (SLR), ENSO, storms on the island of Lombok due to climate change in the unit of analysis regions district boundaries. 4) 5) 6) 7) Map of immersion (hazard map) coastal areas on the Map of vulnerability (vulnerability map) coastal areas Map of the risks (risk map) due to sea level rise on the The table of the main findings and proposed adaptation island of Lombok. on the island of Lombok. island of Lombok. strategy sector vulnerability and risk coastal areas to climate change on the island of Lombok. 8) Recommendations and adaptation strategies in facint the climate change impacts. I.4 Scope
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I.4.1
Scope of Study
This study includes the identification of hazards, vulnerabilities and risks in coastal and marine areas to climate change with a summary of the scope of the study as follows: 1) Determination of hazard (H) sea level rise predictions based on analysis of sea level rise and extreme climate events analysis (EE: extreme events) such as ENSO, sea storm (storm surges), and the tsunami. Hazard weighting, obtained by soaking 2) high menklasifikasikan sea level rise and the percentage of occurrence of each hazard. The determination and the weighting vulnerability to coastal hazards immersion. Determination of vulnerability (V) obtained through the identification of elements of vulnerability, the exposure (E), sensitivity (S), and adaptive capacity (AC) in relation V = (E x S) / AC. Susceptibility obtained by weighting the lower limit and upper limit of vulnerability values obtained from susceptibility elements that were reviewed. 3) The determination and risk weightings immersion. Risk immersion (R) obtained from the product quantity (weight) danger (H) soaked with the amount (weight) vulnerability (V) immersion in the relationship R = H x V Immersion risk weighting is based on the lower limit and upper limit values obtained by immersion of risk. I.4.2 Area Scope
Lombok Island is selected as the study area because the island is vulnerable to climate change, specially the sea level rise due to the distribution of population and economic activity generally located in coastal areas. Besides that, the choosing of Lombok island was
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expected to represent the studies to the islands with the area being, so that the developed method can be modified for large islands and small islands or small islands. The scope of the studied area is the entire coast of Lombok island and the sea with the smallest unit of the analyzed area is administrative district boundaries. See in particular the availability of data related to vulnerability data, the study area is more focused on the City of Mataram and its surroundings, because the region has sufficient availability of complete data I.5 Benefits
Hazards, vulnerabilities and risks caused by climate change on coastal areas and sectors in the Indonesian archipelago sea should be understood early in coastal management efforts and related construction sectors in it. Introduction of hazard, vulnerability and risk in coastal areas and its impact on human activities and ecosystems in these regions in different periods under review and the scenario involved will give you a hazard, vulnerability and risks faced. With that, the issues related to adaptation efforts can be identified early. In applicative terms, this study is expected to clarify issues regarding hazards, vulnerabilities and risks in coastal and marine areas and the resulting impact of climate change on the island of Lombok to the scale of the resulting information is at the level of mid-level (meso-level). Thus, there is a starting point for the study of hazards, vulnerability, risk of coastal and marine areas to climate change in a more detailed scale, and the adaptation strategies that
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will be taken to reduce the resulting potential impact on the time period and the scenarios that were included in this study. I.6 Legal, Law and Government Regulation
Until today, the proper Law and Government Regulations hasnt been made that directly regulate the rights and obligations of citizens and governments to cope with disasters of Climate Change and crop disaster. Here is described linkages of Law and Government Regulations that have been made to mitigation and adaptation of a general disaster that can be associated with disasters caused by climate change. Law: Law of the Republic of Indonesia (State Regulations) No. 24 year 2007 on Disaster Management. These laws have relevance among others in terms of responsibility and authority of the central and local governments in disaster management penyelenggarakan, regulate the functions and duties of the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), regulate the rights and obligations of the society and the role and business institutions and agencies in the international disaster reduction.. Act No. 26 of 2007 on Spatial Planning. By the Interrelationships among others in terms of space utilization. This Act made the basis of Government Regulation and Regulation of Province and Regency / City of Spatial. Act No.. 23 of 1997 on Environmental maintenance, Management restoration, interrelationships among others in terms of the arrangement, utilization, development, monitoring and its control.
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Act
No..
of
1992
on
Housing
and
Settlement.
Interrelationships among others in terms of resettlement arrangements and settings affected the development of residential housing and related areas potentially vulnerable to disasters. Act No. 5 / 1990 on Conservation of Natural Resources and Ecosystems. Interrelationships among others in terms of protection and rehabilitation of areas of life support systems destroyed by the disaster. Act No. 17 of 2007 on Long-Term Development Plan 20052025. Interrelationships among others in terms of development plans by utilizing existing space and has been prepared in accordance intended. Act No. 25 of 2004 concerning National Development Planning System. Interrelationships among others in terms of integration between sectors related to development plans. Act No. 32 of 2004 on Regional Government. Interrelationships among others in terms of local rulemaking authority of the order in which space has been set and the location could not be established buildings. Act No. 28 Year 2002 on Building Construction. Interrelationships among others, in giving the Building Documents (IMB), which filed the public. Granting permission to the regulations must be based on the spatial location has been set allowed and not allowed. Act No. 27 of 2007 on Management of Coastal Areas and Small Islands, where Chapter X contains about disaster mitigation. Act No.. 7 of 2004 on Water Resources.
Government Regulation:
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Regulation of the Government of the Republic of Indonesia Number 23 Year 2008 on the participation of international institutions and foreign non-governmental agencies in disaster management. Interrelationships among others in the conduct of the provisions of Article30 paragraph(3) of Act No.24 of 2007 on Disaster Management.
Regulation of the Government of the Republic of Indonesia No. 21 year 2008 on the implementation of disaster management. Interrelationships among others in terms of pelaksanakan provisions of Article 50 paragraph (2), Article 58 paragraph (2), and Article 59 paragraph (2) of Act No. 24 of 2007 on Disaster Management.
Regulation of the President of the Republic of Indonesia Number 8 Year 2008 on the National Disaster Management Agency. Interrelationships among others in terms of implementation of the provisions of Article 17 of Law No. 24 of 2007 on Disaster Management.
Government Regulation No. 38 of 2007 on Government Affairs division between government, provincial government and local government district. Interrelationships among others in the government affairs division of the field of energy and mineral resources-related disaster.
Government Regulation Number 47 Year 1997 on National Spatial Planning. Interrelationships among others in terms of protection, management and monitoring of natural disaster prone areas.
Government Regulation No. 27 of 1999 on Environmental Impact Assessment. Interrelationships among others in terms of provision to make an immediate action in tackling natural disasters without doing an analysis of environmental impacts (Article 6 paragraph (1) and (2)).
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Government Regulation No. 38 of 2007 on Government Affairs division between government, provincial governments and local government district
Presidential Decree No. 32 of 1990 on the Protection of Protected Area Management. Decree of the Minister of Environment No. 5 of 2000 on EA Compilation Guide in wetland development activities.
The adaptation Step actions and the mitigation in coastal areas due to climate change done by involving the government's responsibility, local governments and / or the community. The main constraints in disaster management as the coordination between the central government, local government and communities. In addition, the capacity and readiness of communities to cope with disasters caused by climate change and public awareness about the dangers and risks that cause is still very low. I.7 Structure of the Report
Systematics report on this study are presented in five chapters as follows: CHAPTER I: Menguraikan latar belakang, tujuan, sasaran, dan luaran, ruang lingkup wilayah studi, manfaat serta sistematika pelaporannya. CHAPTER II This chapter provides an overview of perspectives on, geographical position and and geological conditions, physical socio-economic demographic and
condition of the atmosphere-ocean in coastal and marine areas around the island of Lombok. CHAPTER III: Explaining the approach, the general framework and general methodology of adaptation to climate
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change, as well as hazard analysis studies, a sea level rise, ENSO, extreme waves and tsunamis. In this chapter also discussed about the methods of vulnerability assessment, and risk is used. CHAPTER IV: Contains a description of the results of hazard analysis, vulnerability and disaster risks that will be brought about by climate change on the island of Lombok. CHAPTER V: Loading of the concept and proposed adaptation strategy and program priorities. This report is also equipped with Bibliography and Appendix containing Tables-Table immersion potential analysis, vulnerabilities and risks in coastal areas Lombok Island.
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CHAPTER 2. SECTOR OVERVIEW IN COASTAL AND MARINE IN LOMBOK ISLAND 2.1 Location and Width Area
West Nusa Tenggara Province (NTB) consists of two main islands of Lombok and Sumbawa Island. These provinces established under Law Number 64 Year 1958 on the Formation of Regional-Level area of Bali, West Nusa Tenggara and East Nusa Tenggara. The Act in effect since December 17, 1958, and set the NTB area as the capital of autonomous region in Mataram. Lombok Island is the second largest island after island of Sumbawa Island-island group which includes the Province of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB). Location NTB province is geographically located at positions between 115 46 to 119 5 BT and between 8 10 to 9 5 LU (Figure 2.1). The land area of the island of Lombok is 4738.70 km , or for 23.51% of the total land area of West Nusa Tenggara Province. Around the island there are 332 small islands with a 2333 km long coast.
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Island of Lombok and West Nusa Tenggara province which has a strategic location, bordering directly on the west by the Strait of Lombok and Bali Province, then in the North with the Java Sea and Flores Sea, the eastern part of the Sape Strait, East Nusa Tenggara Province (NTT); and Ocean south of Indonesia. The location and area of Lombok Island, and its position among the other islands to the characteristics of climate, physiography, geology, and natural resources unique island of Lombok.
Figure 2.1 Lombok Island location 2.2. Geology
Lombok Island geology is characterized by a long beach that is not much different between the West and East with the North and South, except the south side of the relatively long to the west. The presence of the volcanic (G.) Rinjani relative position in the middle of the island of Lombok provides a unique physiography. G. Rinjani is the axis of physiographic regions for most of the island of Lombok, where the dominance of the rock is volcanic rock, except the South. Southern regions separated by a low area that is wide
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enough elongated East-West direction. In the center is occupied by a typical hilly volcanic rocks and limestone.
In
physiography,
Lombok
island
is
divided
into
(three)
physiographic zones, namely: mountains, hills, and plains. The third zone for a portion of a circular spread (radial) from the height of the peak of Mount Rinjani as central to the lowlands, except for the southern part is generally hilly. Litologi or rocks that occupy the island of Lombok is dominated by the rocky volcanic products Tertiary to Quaternary age, except a little in the southeastern part occupied by batugamping (Figure 2.2).
Figure 2.2 Geological Map of the Lombok Island(Mangga etc., 1994).
Based on physiographic and Lombok litologi the coastal areas dominated by hills, hills which form its shores material deposits of volcanic activity consists of breksi, lava, Tuf batugamping
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alternating with lenses of quartz sandstone, and empung Batul breksi. The youngest units are alluvium which occupies the western and north-eastern coast of Lombok Sea. Beach material is also composed of coral fragments and shells sediment transport results from the sea spread by currents along the coast parallel to the shore (longshore current). 2.3. Coastal and Sea Areas
Coastal areas are a meeting between the sea and land areas, where this area is an area of interaction between terrestrial ecosystems and marine ecosystems are very dynamic and affect each other. Coastal areas highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change trends that may lead to dangers such as: sea level rise (Sea Level Rise, SLR) and seasonal variability (ENSO, storm waves, and other marine extreme events), so also extremely vulnerable to human activities both on land and at sea, so the management can not be separated from each other.
The results of the interaction parameters of land-ocean-atmosphere creating coastal ecosystem that has its own characteristics, such as the mangrove ecosystem, estuary, coral reefs and seagrass and upwelling, etc. mangrove forest ecosystem has potential ecological roles in supporting the existence of the physical environment and biota. Physically mangrove forests act as drag waves, wind, floods, neutralizing pollution, trap sediment and salt water intrusion barrier. While its role is within the scope of biota as a hiding place and a variety of water bio life breeding
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Ecosystem estuary is a semi-closed water bodies (eg estuaries), freely associated with the open sea, where sea water mixes with fresh water from rivers or drainage of land. These ecocsystems are very productive and held the importance of conserving fisheries resources. The coral reefs ecosystems and seagrass are found in coastal waters clean and clear, far from the mouth of a river or estuary. Coral reef serves as a place to fish and other marine animals to grow and breed. Besides physical function which can reduce wave energy. The Welling up ecosystem are there in the open sea, where nutrients settle to the bottom of the sea surface lifted by the vertical flow of seawater from the bottom to the surface. The raised surface nutrients help high fish productivity. Lombok Island coastal ecosystems are dominated by coral reef ecosystems and seagrass that surrounds almost the entire island of Lombok, particularly in the small islands such as Gili kepulaun Three, while the mangrove ecosystem there are only a few lowlying southern part of West Lombok regency, whereas coastal area of bermaterial sand and beaches are generally covered by bertebing coastal forests such as in the West coast of Lombok Island. This coastal forest is generally converted into production forest as coconut plantation and others. Likewise, the ecosystem of the estuary is very little because the rivers that empty into the sea is generally a small river. 2.4. Population
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In 2007, the population numbered 3,039,846 Lombok island inhabitants, with an average density reaching 641 people per km2. Data for 2007 has not yet been defined according to gender, age group, and sex ratio, so for some of the data presented are the details of the number of residents per district / city or a district as shown in Table 2.1 with the distribution of population as in Figure 2.3.
Table 2.1 The population and density in the island of Lombok 2007 Districk/City 1 2 3 4 Amount (soul) 796.10 7 831.28 6 1.056.3 12 356.14 1 3.039.8 Width (Km )
2
Density (soul/Km2 ) 420,17 683,36 656,07 5.761,55 641.5
Lombok Barat Lombok Tengah Lombok Timur Kota Mataram Total penduduk Pulau
1.863,40 1.208,40 1.605,55 61,30
4.738,65 Lombok 46 Source: NTB in numbers 2006/2007, BPS NTB.
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Figure 2.3 The Population Density Distribution on the island of Lombok From the distribution of population on the island of Lombok showed that they generally live in coastal areas, especially in the city of Mataram, West Lombok regency and East Lombok, and in the middle of the island or in Central Lombok District. (See Figure 2.3).
Coastal communities in socio-cultural community are a group where the roots of their culture initially built on a combination of maritime culture of the sea, beach and market oriented. This tradition evolved into a culture and a cosmopolitan attitude, inklusivistik, egalitarian, Outward looking, dynamic, Enterpreneurship and pluralistic. Potential conflicts in the coastal communities associated with the pattern of ownership and control of natural resources. The nature of the patterns of ownership and control of natural resources of
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coastal areas themselves can be grouped into 4 (four), ie: without the owner (open access property), owned by the community or communal (common property), owned by the government (state public property), and private property (quasi-private property). 2.5. Sosial Ekonomi Masyarakat Pesisir
Traditionally, the coastal regions have economic and social activity that is very high, especially as a food-producing regions. Based on its function, regional coastal and marine areas has several functions namely: basic functions: food production, water and energy supply, Social functions: housing and recreation, economy functions: transportation, mining, and industry, public function: public transportation, defense, distribution of waste water, etc.. a a good energy source that can be updated or not.
Socio-economic conditions of coastal areas are generally very concerned, characterized by low levels of education, productivity and income. Coastal communities are generally wait and see the introduction of new technology and its impact on the family economy. Thus they tend to minimize the possibility of business failure rather than look for opportunities to get the most, because of business failure is threatening the existence of the family. The nature and characteristics of coastal communities are also highly influenced by the type of business activity in general is a fishery. Because the fishing business is very dependent on the season, and
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the market price, the most character of coastal communities dependent on these factors. This cause the coastal communities are highly vulnerable to climate change. Physically, the development of coastal areas of South and East Lombok Island lagged compared with coastal areas of West and North. Lombok Island region has been underserved infrastructure and facilities are relatively good. While the environmental aspects, the conditions in the coastal areas of South and East Lombok Island is better than the other two areas 2.6. Climate and Atmosphere Sea Oceanographics Conditions 2.6.1. Rainfall patterns and Surface runoff
Lombok Island belongs to the monsoon region is characterized by surface winds change direction around six months. In the West season, (October sd March), the weather on the island of Lombok is influenced by the West wind, either through the Java Sea (called the Pacific monsoon), and that through the Indian Ocean. These two oceans affect rainfall characteristics in the area of the island of Lombok, with the influence of monsoon winds dominant western Indian Ocean to the south, and the monsoon in the north Pacific. This can be seen from the climatology of wind patterns in January and August by using satellite data QuickScat (Quick Scatterometer) as illustrated in Figure 2.4.
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(a) January
(b) August Figure 2.4 Wind patterns and sea surface temperature (SPL) in (a) January and (b) in August (Sofian, 2008)
The influence of two oceans (the Java Sea and Ocean Indonesia) results in rainfall patterns that are not uniform, especially on the island of Lombok, with monthly rainfall generally be described as in Figure 2.5. The influence of high sea surface temperatures (SPL) at Ocean Java Sea Indonesia and encourage intensive evaporation and cloud formation in the season, the West wind that led to high rainfall during November to February (Figure 2.5). In contrast to the
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East wind season, SPL in Ocean Indonesia decreased and reached the lowest temperature in August, the drought caused by rainfall is very low as shown in Figure 2.5.
Figure 2.5 The rainfall average annual cycle on the island of Lombok and Sumbawa (Sofian, 2008) Rainfall patterns in Indonesia are associated with wind patterns and equatorial monsunal influenced by local wids. One fact that reinforces the notion that has happened changes in rainfall patterns are observational data of rainfall in the island of Lombok as shown in Figure 2.6 (Hadi, 2008). Rainfall patterns during this (1991-2007) are relatively different from the previous pattern (1961-1990), where rainfall in December is lower now than ever before, but the opposite occurred in March-April. Air temperature patterns of the changes seen an increase of 0.5 sd 0C 1 0C in the current (1991-2007) relative to the previous pattern (1961-1990), especially during November-April, while the month of May to October is relatively unchanged.
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Month
Month
(a) rainfall (b) air temperature Figure 2.6 The phenomenon of change in rainfall patterns (a) and temperature (b), cases on the island of Lombok (Hadi, 2008)
As mentioned above, the wind patterns or monsunal this season under the influence of the phenomenon of El-Nino and La-Nina. At this moment the two types of climate variability is becoming more frequent. For example, in the past El Nino cycle of about 4-7 years (the chance it happened about 25% - 14.3%), but at present the ElNino events are more frequent. Between 1990 - 2006 the El-Nino has occurred six times, which means greater opportunities events (more than 40%). Model projections indicate that in the next 20 years (year 20102030) the phenomenon of El-Nino and La-Nina is expected to more often, maybe even both occur together in a single year (Table 2.2). Projection El-Nino and La-Nina as follows (Sofian, 2009): Between 2010 - 2012: El-Nino and La-Nina 1 alternate for the annual
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Between 2017 - 2021: El-Nino and La-Nina alternate for the annual 1-3 Between 2023 - 2027: El-Nino and La-Nina alternate for 6-9 months, interspersed with normal periods Between 2029 - 2030: El-Nino occurs within 1 year. In general, changes in rainfall patterns and freshwater runoff can cause some significant impacts include: Changes in hydrological cycle (evaporation, precipitation, stream) The impact on water availability in the coastal and small Islands Changes in ecosystems and coastal communities in various ways Changes in sediment transport, nutrients, and substances that contaminated (pollutants) Changes in circulation and water mass perlapisan estuary, wetland, and the continental shelf 2.6.2. Air Temperature and Sea Surface Temperature The process of sea and atmospheric interactions occur in a variety of time scales to control both air temperature and sea temperature. These time scales vary from daily variation (day-night, high tide-low tide) to the fluctuation scale of decades (10 years) and age (100 years). Very long-scale fluctuations can be observed by analyzing the trend of the data long enough temperatures.
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Temperature conditions on the island of Lombok is not much vary temporally, while the spatial variation (spatial) the air temperature is more determined by topographic factors (altitude). At around Selaparang, Ampenan, average temperatures range from the highest monthly 26.5 C in December-January and lowest range from 24.5 C in July-August. During the last ten years recorded the tendency of the surface temperature increase on average of about 0.5 C. The most important parameters of the sea and is most often measured sea surface temperature (SPL; sea surface temperature). Many studies both international and national scale have shown the increase in sea temperature is, among other things: Aldrin and Arifian (2008) shows the trend of increasing sea level at some coastal points in the central region and western Indonesian waters (Figure 2.7.a). While the results of measurements are shown in Figure 2.7.b, the rate of increase in sea temperture for each station are presented in Figure 2.7.c.
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Figure 2.7 (a) Position the point mooring sea temperature measurements, (b) the results of sea-level temperature measurements, and (c) the rate of temperature increase for each station (modified from source: Aldrin and Arifian, 2008)
Sofian (2009) by using projection models sea level rise in temperature in northern and southern parts of Lombok island as shown in Figure 2.8 which shows the increase in ocean temperature an average of 1.3 oC in the North and 0.2 oC in the Southern coast of the island Lombok in the 1980 timeframe sd 2008. Along with the seasonal wind patterns SPL pattern illustrated in Figure 2.9
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Figure 2.8 SPL on the coast of North and South Island of Lombok by NOAA OI SST data, from January 1981 until September 2008 (Sofian, 2009)
Figure 2.9 Annual cycle average SPL in the North and South coast Lombok Island (1981-2008), NOAA OI SST (Sofian, 2009)
Sea-surface temperatures along the coast of Lombok island variation is closely related to El Nino and La Nina, where SPL is down by 1 C to 1.5 C at the time of occurrence of El Nino, and
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increase by 1 C to 2 C at the time of the occurrence of La Nina (Sofian, 2008).
2.6.3. High Flow Front Sea and Relationship with ENSO Ocean currents is the phenomenon of mass migration of water from one place to another. This current is very active role in influencing the processes of biology, chemistry and physics in the spectrum of space and time that happened in the sea. Waters of the strait in Indonesia is strongly influenced by the flow of Cross Indonesia (Arlindo) that carries warm water masses from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean all year. Only during the transitional season in April-May and November to December flow moving to the South turned to the North because of the influence of the Kelvin wave from the entry of Indian Ocean equator (Sprintall, et al., 1999). Arlindo strengthened with speed exceeding 70 cm / dt during the month of July to September, and weakened in January to March, while the tidal currents (pasut) reach speeds of 350 cm / dt on the shoal (Sill) between the island of Nusa Penida and Lombok (Murray and Arief, 1986). In addition, the interaction between half-daily tide (12.42 hours) with superficiality (Sill) between the island of Nusa Penida and Lombok cause the formation of a soliton wave packet that extends in two directions: north to reach the Flores Sea and Kangean Island and the South into the sea off the Indian Ocean. Thus, there are at least 4 major factors: Arlindo, swell (swell), tidal, and interacting solitons and lead to the Lombok Strait has always been choppy and
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strong currents and rapid changes (within hours). The condition is very vulnerable to shipping. Arlindo affect the characteristics of climate on the island of Lombok through the mechanism of heat transfer between the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean. Sofian et al. (2008) simulate the flow patterns and sea level monthly average for 7 years from 1993 to 1999, in January and August using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM, Bleck, 2002). as shown in Figure 2.10.
a.January b. August Figure 2.10 The distribution of sea water level and flow pattern in January (left) and August (right). Sea water level and flow pattern is the monthly average for 7 years, from 1993 to 1999
Flow pattern in January (Figure 2.10a) shows that the currents in the Sunda Strait, flows into the East Sea and into the next Java in the Java Sea currents flowing into the East, and the current flowing in the Karimata Strait to the South. Conversely in August will change with the seasons, causing current to flow in the Java Sea to the west and then flows out through the Sunda Strait.
Unlike the flow pattern in the Java Sea and the Strait of Karimata, surface currents in the Makassar Strait and do not follow the
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pattern of seasonal wind direction. Flow in the Makassar Strait surface tends to stir the South generally controlled by the difference in sea level elevation in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. The speed of surface currents in the Strait of Makassar weak in the wet season (southwest wind), although the North wind is very intensive. In contrast to strong in the dry season (south-east wind). Strong surface currents in the Strait of Makassar also caused a decrease in sea level on the North coast of Lombok Island in August, as shown in Figure 2.10.b.
Current circulation is strongly influenced by the ENSO phenomenon. In the phase of El Nino, sea level in Indonesian waters is relatively decreased about 20 cm, while the La Nina phase of the reverse process with the El Nino period, so sea level rise in Indonesian waters about 20 cm (see Figure 2.11). Sea level rise conditions during La Nina causes of vulnerability, especially: abrasion, erosion and shoreline change, which not only caused by high rainfall, but also due to the rising sea level.
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Figure 2.10 Time series altimeter ADT (Absolute Dynamic Topography atau sea level) anomali dan SOI dari Januari 1993 sampai September 2008 Later in the period of El Nino, wind Timuran more intensively in the Java Sea was marked by the increasing mass transport of water from the Java Sea Banda Sea and Makassar Strait in August 1997. Strengthening local Timuran wind is seen also in the more intense upwelling that occurs in the southern coast of Java Island. it is characterized by increased concentrations of chlorophyll-a in the southern coast of Java Island, part of Sumatra, Bali and Lombok as seen in Figure 2.12. This means that when the El Nino phase is underway, there was an increase potential for capture fisheries in line with increasing concentrations of chlorophyll-a. During the period of La Nina phenomenon in contrast, tend to be Westernized local winds strengthened and weakened the ocean currents into the Java Sea through the Banda Sea, Flores and the Makassar Strait, in August 1999..
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. Figure 2.11 Distribusi klorofil-a bulan Agustus 1997 pada periode El Nino The Ocean current circulation, as well as movement of sea water in a vertical (upwelling and downwelling), can be influenced by global and local changes of temperature, salinity, rainfall, and the field winds above the sea level. Mass movement of water both in horizontally and vertically are closely related to ecological contained in the sea. Therefore, knowledge about the circulation of currents in space and time scales are very important to understand the implications of global climate change on the dynamics and marine biological resources, particularly marine fishing. It is clear that the current system changes influenced by global climate change or the result of oceanographic variability has the potential to raise or lower the productivity of fisheries. 2.6.3.1. El Nino and La Nina and the relationship with the High Sea Front
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Sea-level rise due to gradual global warming is a very complex process. Accelerated sea level rise along with the increasingly intense global warming. Two processes melatar their backs on the rise in sea level, namely: -The process of adding the water because of melting ice in the North and South poles and ice Glaciers. -Increasing the volume of water due to thermal expansion caused by rising ocean temperatures. The increase in sea level due to global warming becomes something that can not be inevitable with all its consequences, such as erosion, shoreline changes and reduced wetland area (wetland) along the coast. Wetland ecosystems in coastal areas may be damaged if high-level rise and sea temperature exceeds the maximum limit of adaptation to coastal biota. Besides the increase in sea level also enhances the rate of sea water intrusion of coastal aquifer. High increase in sea surface temperature can also lead to lower levels of capture fisheries production. Further rise in sea level around the island of Lombok from the results obtained downscalling altimeter data that the rate of increase in the North Island of Lombok range 3.5 cm / decade, whereas in the Southern range 6.5 cm / decade, as shown in Figure
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2.13 Figure 2.13 High annual Sea Front in North and South coast of Lombok Island (Sofian, 2009) 2.6.4. Tidal around Lombok Island Is the phenomenon of tidal fluctuations in sea level to a datum (bench mark) due to the influence of gravity the moon, sun, and heavenly bodies, and to be modified by local factors such as the form of the coastline, bottom topography, and meteorological effects. Pasut type in the Lombok Strait and the Sape Strait of pasut influenced by the Java Sea and the Indian Ocean are both semidiurnal mixed type, as in shown in pasut components in Sanur, Ampenan and Sheets in Table 2.2. (Wyrtki, 1961). Next Figure 2.14 shows the prediction results in Ampenan tidal elevation, Penang on October 31 to November 30, 2008, using data WX-Tide ver. 4.7.
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Tabel 2.2 Tidal Component around the Lombok Island No Place Const ant A (cm) g (der) A (cm) g (der) A (cm) g (der) So (cm) 130 Component S2 14 33 3 19 30 8 16 31 7 M2 57 27 6 16 29 3 27 30 8 K1 38 32 1 32 32 3 35 28 4 O1 20 25 6 15 22 2 23 26 4 P1 8 30 9 18 33 2 12 28 3 N2 10 24 6 5 27 6 K2 6 26 3 5 29 5 11 31 8
Sanur
Ampe nan Lemb ar
110
110
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Figure 2.12 Grafik elevasi pasang surut di Ampenan Tidal elevation in Ampenan ups and downs in Lombok Island 31 October - 30 November 2008 (Source: WX Tide Version 4.70)
2.6.5.
Sea Waves and Storm
Ocean waves by wind diimbuh generally, in pembangkitannya strongly influenced by wind speed, wind duration and the length of the wave formation (fetch). With this condition causes the difference wave Characteristics happened in January (Figure 2.15a) and August (Fig. 2.15b), while the maximum wave generally occurs in December are shown in Figure 2.15c. Wave data illustrated in Figure 2:15 obtained from the altimeter Significant Wave Height (SWH) from January 2006 until December 2008 (Sofian, 2009)
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a. January
b. August
c. Maximun wave Figure 2.13 Average Wave hight in January (a) and August (b) And the Maximum save Similarly, there are differences in growing conditions in a wave of closed waters (waters between islands) and open water (open water into the ocean off). In Figure 2:15 shows the differences in the spatial wave height is where the waters in the (closed) Indonesian archipelago has a maximum wave height 1.5 sd berkiasar 3.0 m. Meanwhile, outside waters (open) the Indonesian archipelago into the ocean off mengahadap a maximum wave height is higher in the range of 5.5 sd 3.5 m. Next to the waters around the island of Lombok, the average height significant wave reaches a maximum value of about 2.0 to 2.5 m in the north and
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from 2.5 to 3.0 m in the southern island of Lombok (Figure 2.15). That means the South Island of Lombok Strait Lombok includes a direct blow of wind wave energy from the sea off the Indian Ocean (the South). In addition to wind waves described above, the waters around Lombok island Lombok Strait in particular has been known to be an important channel of transmission of the Kelvin wave energy into the waters of Indian Ocean islands of Indonesia to bring the average Kelvin wave energy by 55% (Syamsudin et al., 2004 ), as in Figure 2.16. Part of this wave energy through diffraction when it reached the island of Nusa Penida and into the waters of the strait in the form of square (swell) which continue to spread to the Java Sea. Demikan also with a storm surge, so has the potential to hit southern coastal waters Lombok Island
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Figure 2.14 SAR Image on 23 April 1996 (Syamsudin et al., 2004) Occurrence of frequent storm waves hit southern coastal areas of Java sd East of the island including the island of Lombok is the tail of a tropical cyclone which occurred in the Indian Ocean west of Australia. Other areas of Indonesia is frequently hit by hurricanes in the northern part of Kalimantan and Sulawesi by storm sources of the South China Sea and Pacific Ocean. Potential tropical storm were from the East Australia into the Banda Sea and hit the islands in Southeast Maluku. Tropical storm region is a region with a radius of 100 km2 or more of its center is a collection of storm clouds. This tropical storms usually occur in the low latitude (5 N and 5 LS) that is triggered by a set of 3-5 pieces in the storm clouds around the equator.
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Farther from the equator, the more the storm clouds, which then form the tail of the storm clouds. Thus, the position of Indonesia and its latitude is between 6 N and 12 LS lucky to not have storm conditions except for the storm as the storm clouds are turning away from the equator. Tropical storms always appear in the two regions in two seasons (Figure 2.17), namely: Southern region in Indonesia during the rainy season, particularly in the Indian Ocean from Southwest, South to the southeast of Indonesia; and
in the North during the dry season, especially around the South China Sea and the west Pacific Ocean
Figure 2.15 Regional occurrence of tropical cyclones (shaded red); cyclone does not occur in the territory of Indonesia, but has the impact of thunder storms and high winds (note BBU = Northern Hemisphere, BBS = Southern Hemisphere)
Tropical cyclones are common in the West wind season and transition to the East wind season (December-April), which most often occurs in January and February (Hadi, 2008). Seasonal pattern
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is the factor that extreme weather events can be affected by global climate change, where the pattern recently "disturbed" by the more frequent occurrence of El-Nino and La-Nina. During El-Nino events, potential areas of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific tends to shift toward the waters off eastern Indonesia, on the other hand the more tropical cyclones occur during the La-Nina events as sea temperature is increasing. Tropical storm conditions can cause irregular nature. Activities storm clouds could be called extreme if there is: and dams). rotating winds and change direction with a speed of 60-350 km / h (wind storm) that can fly the roof of the house, and knocked down trees and billboards, as well as disturbing the marine transportation system. storm Path of tropical storms in the Indian Ocean provided by BOM Australia (2006) as shown in Figure 2.18. storm surge (storm surges), which raised a tropical high-intensity rain (rain storm), which can have an impact derivative (floods, destruction of infrastructure, bridges
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Figure 2.16 Path of tropical cyclone in Hindia Ocean (BOM Australia, 2006)
When tropical storms occur in a relatively remote place then raised a storm surge that would square-shaped spread (swell) which can reach the coast as Hurricane Jacob Indonesia that occurred in 2007. This storm struck the southern coast of Java, which causes disruption of marine transportation and difficult for fishermen to the sea. Through modeling of the storm, Ningsih (2009) indicate a sealevel appointments average (MSL) approximately 50 cm relative to the normal MSL, when the storm Jacob (Figure 2.19
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Figure 2.17 Storm wave height distribution as a result of the simulation model in the South coast of Java Island (Ningsih, 2009)
2.6.6.
Tsunami
Tsunamis are long waves that arise because of changes in the seabed or the water body changes that occur suddenly and impulsively, by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, submarine landslide, even a hack from celestial bodies to the surface. Although in that period can not be predicted, but the coast of Lombok Island may run the risk of immersion and damage, due to the brunt of the tsunami either North or South direction Lombok Island, as it has been on the island of Bali experienced by tsunami Bali (1818) or the South coast The island of Java by the tsunami
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Banyuwangi (1994) and Tsunami Pangandaran (2006) as in Figure 2.20. The tsunami generated from a distance can provide a broad effect. While the effects of local tsunamis affect only certain areas. Tsunami risk can also be influenced by paras pasut and local storm waves that appear. For example at high pasut impact of the tsunami is more severe than at sea level in a subsided. From the results of field measurements of Pangandaran tsunami (2006) and Tsunami Banyuwangi (1994) has an average height ranges from 6 to 8 meters
Figure 2.18 Tsunami Model in Pangandaran 2006 (Latief, dkk, 2006)
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CHAPTER 3. HAZARD STUDY METHODOLOGY, VULNERABILITY AND RISKS Study hazard, vulnerability and risk to coastal and marine sectors to climate change with a case study conducted in Lombok Island in the approach to adaptation of the approach response or reaction strategies in an effort to minimize the impact that will arise as a result of climate change. In this chapter described the principle of adaptation to the impacts of climate change, approaches and frameworks and methods hazard analysis, vulnerability and risks to hazards triggered by climate change
3.1. Principle Adaptation Against Climate Change Impacts The term adaptation in the broad sense is any human effort in modifying the natural or artificial systems in responding to the effects of climate change in the current and projected climate change in the future in order to reduce damage or improve the opportunities to profit from climate change (Stern, 2008). The advantages of this approach compared with the mitigation adaptation is the result of adaptation efforts can diperolah faster than the results obtained from mitigation efforts, in addition to the results of adaptation can be beneficial to the local community. However, adaptation can not replace the role of mitigation in the face of climate change impacts. Adaptation plays a role in reducing the immediate impacts arising from climate change can not be done by mitigation. However, without a strong commitment to mitigation, adaptation costs will increase, and the adaptive capacity will be reduced both individuals and governments.
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In terms of adaptation to promote the efforts of priority should be to increase resilience in the face the climate change, as revealed by Manyena (2006) as shown in Table 3.1. Table 3.3 The Difference between the vulnerability and the resilience( Source: Manyena, 2006) Vulnerability (Kerentanan) Resistance (Perlawanan) Force-bound (Terkait dgn usaha) Safety (Keselamatan) Mitigation (Mitigasi) Institutional (Kelembagaan) System (Sistem) Engineering (Rekayasa) Resilience (Ketahanan) Recovery (Pemulihan) Time-bound (Terkait dgn waktu) Bounce back (menghalau balik) Adaptation (Adaptasi) Community-based (Berbasis komunitas) Network (Jaringan) Culture (Budaya dan kearifan lokal) Vulnerability and capacity analysis (Analisis kerentanan dan kapasitas) Outcome (Hasil) Standards (Standar, Operasonal, dan Prosedur) Process (Proses) Institutionalize (Pelembagaan)
Risk Assessment (Kajian Risiko)
Manyena (2006) emphasized that there are two things to note in relation to managing the risk of vulnerability (vulnerability) and resilience / flexibility (Resilience). The first is a vulnerability management that aims to reduce vulnerability to hazards triggered by climate change with a top-down method that nature is driven by
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policy (policy driven), which aims to make resistance, associated with efforts to prioritize the safety, through prevention efforts, that required an institutional, system and engineering, based on risk assessment, which berorentasi results or solving problems, through standard operating procedures (SOP). While the second is to enhance resilience against hazards triggered by climate change, by way of buttom-up, which aims for recovery, this process takes time in the block and return to an acceptable state, by adaptation, community based, through a network or net-working, with the approach of local culture and wisdom, based on vulnerability and capacity analysis, which berorentasi to the process. Both approaches are urgently needed and should be conducted simultaneously in the face of dangers that are triggered by climate change. Therefore, this study considers two types of adaptation, namely: adaptation driven by policy (policy-driven adaptation) and the adaptation itself (autonomus adaptation). Related to the purpose of mainstreaming climate change into the NTB provincial RPJMD in this study had the greater weight on the driven adaptation policies. The study also involved two levels of adaptation, namely: strengthening the capacity of adaptation and implementation of adaptation actions. The first level includes the provision of information on hazards, vulnerabilities and risks of climate change. While the implementation of adaptation actions include measures of vulnerability reduction and improvement of resilience that can reduce the risk of coastal and marine areas to climate change. 3.2. Approach, the General Framwork and the Methods of study
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3.2.1. General Study approach General approach chosen based approach to study the study of Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (PIDAK or Climate Change Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability / CCIAV) consisting of 5 (five) options as the approach presented in Table 3.2. Four of them classified as old-fashioned research approaches, namely: assessment of impacts, vulnerability assessment, adaptation studies, and integrated studies. The fifth approach is derived from the risk assessment framework which is a new development in the study PIDAK (IPCC, 2007 in Suroso, 2008). This risk-based approach used in this study to facilitate the mainstreaming of adaptation options in policy-making, especially in the province of West Nusa Tenggara. Table 3.4 5 Approach in the appraisal of the climate modification from IPCC (2007) Approach Vulneribili Adaptatio ty The The proses process Scientifi c Target Effect and the climate risk to the future that that effected the effected Vulnerabilit the y to the climate change PracticaAction for Action to and the capacity Action to Interaction and feed back between drivers and Risk assessme nt and police respon n
Effect
Integration
Risk
adaptation many adaptation impacts
Global policy Mainstree
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Effect l purpos e risk reduction Standar approach to PIDAK, method DPSIR (Driver State Impact response Study Method impact pressure conditions as a driver) , Study driven by risk reduction (Hazarddriven risk assessment ) MotivatiDriven by on reaseach
Approach Vulneribili Adaptatio ty reduce vulnerabilit y n improve
Integration options and
Risk ming in policy making
adaptation fees
Integrated Vulnerability indicators and description; risk of climate past and present; livelihoods analysis; agent-based Narrative method Perceptions of risk, including the critical threshold Performance of policy / sustainable development Relations adaptive capacity and sustainable development assessment modeling Cross-sector interaction Integration of climate with Risk Study other drivers Procedure Model discussion Risk is composed
response or method;
stakeholders of Hazard (stakeholders and ) related to traffic type and scale of Merging the different approaches or models study Vulnerabilit y
Research Driven
Research Driven
Driven by policy
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Effect (Research
Approach Vulneribili Adaptatio ty n
Integration
Risk (Policy Driven)
Driven) Sourcer: Suroso, D.S (2008)
Taking into account the effectiveness, the right target, the size of the study area planning level, the availability of data, as well as the cost of vulnerability assessment to Lombok Island case study was conducted with medium-scale levels (Meso-level), as willing levels provided by Messner (2005) as shown in Table 3.3.
Table.5 Various levels of vulnerability studies The Rank Scale Data needs/ Analysis Qualitativ e Qualitativ e and Quantitati ve The size of Study area Planning levels Accurac y area of the tuition fees Macro Meso National Regional districs/city ) Adaptatio n Policy Adaptatio Low Medium Low Medium
(Province to n Strategy
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combinati on Adaptatio Micro Quantitati ve Local n Measurem High High
ent Source: Modification by Messner (2005) dalam Suroso, D.S. (2008) Secondary level (meso) has a depth of analysis by analyzing the entire coastal area in Lombok Island later ditranformasikan to each unit-level administrative districts / cities. Next to the more detailed study will focus on the City of Mataram and surrounding areas with the smallest administrative unit districts. 3.2.2. Studies on the Relationship Framework Hazard, Vulnerability, and Risk
Risk assessment framework is generally done by integrating the hazard, vulnerability, in a certain relationship of inter-related and affect each other. The linkage elements of risk (hazard and vulnerability) was formulated in relation to: the risk (Risk, R) is a meeting (which is denoted by the sign of times) between the hazards (Hazards; H) and vulnerability (Vulnerability, V) as given by Affeltranger, et al., 2006 in Figure 3.1 below
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Figure 3.1 Chart notation risk.

Kenaikan Temperature : The Increase in Temperature Perubahan pola hujan: The Changing of Rain pattern Peningkatan frekwensi dan intensitas kejadian ekstrim iklim : The Increased Frequence and the intencity of extreme climate event Kenaikan muka laut : The increase of sea front Kawasan Pesisir: Coastal Area Pertanian : Agriculture Sumber Daya danger is defined as a function of the behavior Where the Air : Power Water Source Kehutanan : quantity (magnitude), and the speed (rate) of climate (character),Forestry Kesehatan : Health change and climate variations, and its influence on atmospheric
parameters and the parameters osenografi. While vulnerability (vulnerability, V) is a function of exposure (exposure, E), sensitivity (sensitivity, S) and capacity of adaptation (adaptive capacity, AC) as defined in the following relationship: V = (E x S) / AC. From the formula above shows variable adaptive capacity is inversely proportional to the value of risk level. Therefore reduce vulnerability to lower levels of exposure and sensitivity, and accompanied by an increase in adaptive capacity or resilience. If a
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community has a level of vulnerability that is higher than the value of adaptation capacity, then the value of a high level of risk will occurred. Conversely if the level of community capacity higher than the level of vulnerability will cause a low risk level.
3.2.2. Data collection Method
Data collection is intended to obtain data and information on hazards and vulnerability as much and as complete as possible, through: Bibliographic study, and collecting the relevant data / information Field Survey Public consultation with relevant stakeholders at the beginning of activity; Discussion / implementation (Focus Group Discussion, FGD) scientific team and other parties concerned. The results of data collection and then elaborated in the form of lists and the type and amount of data, then do penseleksian assessment and data, including the quality and relevance of the data with a specified level of accuracy, then used as input in the study. Results from this eleborasi data presented in the form of tables or images. Hazard data and vulnerability elements that will be input into the risk analysis must be selected in accordance with the goals and the ease and availability of data. In principle, the more data elements of danger and vulnerability that made input and the more complete data is then of course the better the
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results. In the study of risk analysis in the future, should the input demographic data, physical plant, facilities and infrastructure including life-support facilities have an ever-changing nature of time together. Therefore this vulnerability data base needs to be updated or revised periodically in the time period considered most optimal.
In the analysis and presentation of data hazards, vulnerabilities and risks in use of GIS tools (Geographic Information System) to facilitate data management, geographic location pengeplotan of data that can be described as hazard maps, vulnerability and risk, and may be calculated and the extent and value of hazard rate , vulnerability and risk of a region.
3.3.
Hazard Study Methodology 3.3.1. Hazards in Coastal and Marine Area
The Equilibrium system as the atmosphere-ocean climate building, recently disturbed by human activities that cause increased production of gas-greenhouse gases (Grk) causing global warming and trigger global climate change in turn influenced the coastal and marine sector include: Increase in sea water temperature Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (storms, cyclones, and rob) Changes in rainfall patterns and river flows due to changes in natural climate variability (El-Nino, La-Nina)
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Changes in ocean circulation patterns due to changes in natural climate variability, and Increase in sea level
These dangers may influence each other one with an area where potentially experience various styles of climate or the dangers of climate change triggered by the same time. Australian Greenhouse Office (2005) describes the influence of climate change on the danger that will arise in the coastal and marine areas as shown in Figure 3.2 include: - Storms that affect rainfall and surface runoff, - Storm-related wind and pressure, and Changes in sea level (variabiltas seasonal, ENSO and the IPO).
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Figure 3.19 The linkage between a hazard to other hazards triggered by climate change on coastal and marine sector
The changes mentioned above will affect: (A) the supply of sediment, (B) waves and swell (the sound wave), (C) currents, (D) storm pasut, (E) changes in sea level. Meanwhile, other external factors not directly related to climate change is tidal and (F) tsunami. Pasut and tensile forces generated by the objects of outer space, while the tsunamis generated by tectonic activity, volcanic, and underwater landslides. All the elements of (A) to (F) should be reviewed in analyzing the dangers that potentially occur in coastal and marine areas.
Preview and kerakteristik of the elements above the danger diuraiakan Fluctuations in Sea Front Fluctuations in sea level derived from the average sea level (MSL) after eliminating the influence and impact pasut increase long-term sea-level. In the immersion study, the increase can reach MSL 0:20 m above MSL average. This situation occurs when La Nina cycle and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) in the negative phase. At as follows:
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the present time we are in the negative IPO phase that began in 1998 and probably ended in the year 2020 until 2030. The effect of this IPO can increase MSL within a long enough period of 20 to 30 years.
Tidal High pasut can cause a similar immersion immersion storm surge (storm surge) or flooding rivers. Pasut currents at the mouth of the river plays an important role in the supply of sediment to the estuary and coast. The upper limit of the value of MHWS (Mean High Water Springs) is usually used as high-risk quantification value immersion. Hurricane The storm caused major danger, namely: Waves and swell which causes instability of the quantity of sediment supply, causing erosion and coastal immersion even cause damage to coastal buildings. Storm surge (storm waves), which cause low pressure within a certain time period which can raise the sea level above the expected level of the tidal. Tidal levels during storms is a high sum of MHWS, storm surge and wave set-up. wave set-up is an increase in sea level in the surf (the waves break) relative to sea level due to storm off the coast. Runup (rayapan) is an additional wave height that can be achieved on the level pasut, arising from the wave breaking. Flowing wave calculated separately from the level of the storm because pasut wave rayapan varies along the coast and even in the same area,
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depending on the difference in the slope of the beach and the natural types of coastal structures. Tsunami & subsidence / uplift Based on the history of events tsunami, the island of Lombok has potential of tsunami affected immersion of local tsunami sources. The tsunami generated locally, giving flexibility very little time for evacuation, due to the short distance to the beach area. Tsunami risk can also be influenced by the level of pasut and local stormsurge that appears when the tsunami occurred.
3.3.2. Climate Change and Impact on Bahya-Hazards in Coastal Areas Climate change and its effect on sea level Global warming causes sea temperatures become warmer and sea level increases. This is expected to continue to increase in the future. Sea levels may change from year to year over a long period of time, depending on the ENSO and the IPO cycle that occurs seasonally. The IPCC estimates that sea levels will continue to rise for the next several centuries even if greenhouse gas emissions have been stable this is because the ocean response time is quite long. Melting of ice is expected to cause sea level rise in the order of several meters for several centuries until the next millennium. Even for the scenario of climate change the most minimal (see Guideline for Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment).
Climate change and its impact on storm
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Several studies showed the increase in storm intensity in northern hemisphere (BBU) due to climate change, the same thing also happened in the southern hemisphere (BBS), although not yet clear mechanisms and dynamics of these influences. Demikan also no model that simulates the frequency of tropical cyclones that reached the island of Lombok. But if the intensity of the incident multiply the effect of the coast will be greater.
Climate change affects the current, wind, waves and tidal Climate change will affect the distribution of pressure and wind patterns, which in turn affect the winds and ocean currents. This relationship is a reciprocal relationship in which ocean currents affect the climate and storm patterns that occur. With the current changes in warm or cold current changes cause changes in wind patterns that affect the frequency of seas (waves) and swell (square wave) along the coast and the possibility of extreme waves are higher during tropical cyclone events are more intense. Tide in the deep ocean will not be affected directly by climate change but a grace pasut in shallow waters such as bays, estuary, river estuaries and harbors can be affected by climate change through the strengthening mechanism of wind, waves, coastal currents, river flow due to changes in rainfall and sedimentation in the estuary. Climate changes affect the supply of sediment on the beach Climate change will affect the structure and development factors of sediment supply to the coast, several factors may provide additional and others provide a reduction of sediment supply. The impact of climate change on sediment supply in the future has not been studied thoroughly. Therefore, for areas susceptible to
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sediment supply should be a more detailed investigation including the supply of sediment from the river and catch area (catchment area), as well as sediment transport parallel to the coast.
Climate Change Effects on Tsunami Geological causes of the tsunami will not be affected directly by climate change. But the effect of tsunami on the coast will be transformed by sea level rise, which of course increases the risk of a tsunami immersion. A more important factor in high-risk assessment of pasut on the beach when the tsunami reached. . 3.3.2. Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Areas Climate change as described above causes physical changes in the environment include: a pool on the low lands and swamps, coastal erosion, extreme waves and floods, sea water intrusion into rivers and groundwater, river water level rise, changes in the range of wave and pasut and sediment changes sediments. Climate change and physical changes of this environment will provide a significant impact: the beach morphology, natural ecosystems, settlements, water resources, fisheries, agriculture and marine tourism as given by Diposaptono (2008) in Figure 3.3.
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Figure 3.20 The influence of climate change and its impacts on coastal and marine areas (Diposaptono, 2008)
PERUBAHAN IKLIM: CLIMATE CHANGES PERUBAHAN FISIK LINGKUNGAN: PHYSICAL ENVIRONTMENT CHANGES DAMPAK PADA WILAYAH PESISIR, LAUT DAN PULAU2 KECIL : IMPACT ON THE COASTAL AREA, MARINE AND SMALL ISLANDS PEMANASAN GLOBAL : GLOBAL WARMING Kenaikan permukaan air laut: The rising of Sea Level Perubahan Pola Angin: The Changing of the Wind Pattern Perubahan Presipirasi dan Pola Hidrologi: The Changing of Prespiration and the Pattern of Hidrology Perubahan atmosfir dan suhu air: The Changing of the Atmosphere and the water temperature Genangan di Lahan rendah dan Rawa: Puddle in the low and Swamp Land Erosi Pantai : Coastal Erosion Gelombang ekstrim dan banjir : Extreen Wave and flood Intrial air laut dan air tanah : Intrial of the seawater and the groundwater Kenaikan muka air sungai : The increasing of the river water front Perubahan pasut dan gelombang : The Changing of the tidal and wave Perubahan endapan sedimen: The Changing of Sediment deposition Morfologi pantai : Coastal morphology Ekosistem alamiah : Natural ecosystem Pemukiman : Settlements Sumber daya air: Water power source
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Infrastruktur : Infrastructure Perikanan : Fishery Pertanian : Agriculture Pariwisata Bahari : Marine Tourism
Of the many dangers associated with climate changes described above, sea level rise is a much studied topic in climate change issues, the result of two main variables, namely thermal expansion or contraction in the sea (sterik effect) and the disbursement of the water mass contained or trapped in a mountain of ice and snow around the poles. Sea-level rise is distinguished by fluctuations (rise and fall) in sea level at various time scales, like the waves of the sea (waves and swell) which occur due to sea surface wind, tidal (pasut) caused by the pull the moon and sun, storm surge and the tidal wave that emerged due to cyclones or storms at sea, due to climate variability, El Nino and La-Nina. This sea-level fluctuation potential impacts caused by the blows of the wave energy and ocean water at the beach. High blow and the sea water at the beach will be significantly increased, when the phenomenon of the dangers of the above works well within a certain timeframe, causing sea-level fluctuations are very extreme, it needs careful addition of the term "relative rise in sea level" refers on changes in sea level on the ground locally at a particular location. Surface soil can have movement because isostatik
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reversal, decreased soil face, kompaksi and settling for sediment accumulation in alluvial delta of the estuary, decreased soil away from the extraction of water and oil, and tectonic activity (earthquakes). As an example of tectonic activity such as earthquakes, can affect the face of decreasing land (subsidence) on the island of Plenty, North Sumatra (Fig. 3.4) and or removal of the soil face (uplift) in the Mentawai islands as shown in Figure 3.5.
Figure 3.21 Examples of subsidence due to earthquake in Nias 2005 (Foto: Danny N.H)
Figure 3.22 Examples of uplift due to Earthquake Nias 2005 (Foto: Kerry Sieh)
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3.3.2. Superficial Hazard Analysis Results or superficial (output) of this hazard analysis is the main form of: Tabulation of data from the potential dangers of coastal and marine such as: - The rate of increase in seawater temperature - Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (storms, cyclones) - Changing patterns of rainfall and river flows due to changes in natural climate variability (El-Nino, La-Nina) - Changes in ocean circulation patterns due to changes in natural climate variability - Sea level rise The table and maps of the quantification of each hazard Superficial of this hazard analysis with results of superficial study of the vulnerability of data to be input to the immersion of risk analysis in coastal and island of Lombok Mataram city and its surroundings.
3.4.
Vulnerability Study Approach
Vulnerability is defined as the ability of an individual or group in society to anticipate, cope with, defend and save themselves against the impact of a natural hazard in this case the effects of climate change. Basically, vulnerability is dynamic and constantly changing in line with changes in the human condition and environment. Vulnerability (vulnerability) is formulated as follows: Vulnerability = (Exposure x Sensitivity)/Adaptive Capacity
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where: Exposure (exposure) or exposure refers to the acceptance of human and infrastructure of exposure a hazard by location and physical defense. Sensitivity (sensitivity) is a component which refers to the sensitivity level of loss a person or group or kegetasan an infrastructure or the environment against exposure to a hazard. Capacity of adaptation (adaptive capacity) is the component that refers to a person or group's ability to act and adapt in the face of a danger that does not happen a great loss In general, the elements of vulnerability are used as input in assessing vulnerability as tabulated in Table 3.4. Table 3.6 The elment and parameter of vulneribility in general Vulnerability Element Geography Socio-demographic (population) Infrastructure and Facilities Vulnerability Parameter Location and position Population and population density Welfare level The buildings housing (residential buildings) The buildings were low-rise buildings and high Infrastructure (roads, bridges, and supporting facilities, etc.) life-support facilities (lifelines) such as drinking water network system, electricity, and telecommunications Land Use map
Land Use
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The nature of the vulnerability of elements can be distinguished in a real vulnerability elements and not real (Table 3.5), each of which may contribute to vulnerability, or often a combination of both.
Table 3.6 Elements of strength and endurance Capital Nature / morphology Finance / Financial Humans Social Physical Element topography, vegetation and other natural resources. savings, income, credit, retirement knowledge, skills, health, physical ability networks, relationships, trust, mutual exchange, mutual royang. infrastructure, shelter / shelter, life support devices, water and sanitation, transport and telecommunications
Vulnerability and capacity assessment in relation to climate change must look far ahead, because the dangers posed by climate change is believed to occur in the definite and continuous for a long time into the future.
1.
Superficial Vulnerability Analysis
superficial results of this vulnerability assessment is the main form of:
tabulation of data from the basic elements of vulnerability such as: demographic data, topgrafi data, data infrastructure and a vital life-support The table and maps of the quantification of the elements of vulnerability
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Then the output of this vulnerability assessment, together with the output of natural hazard studies used as input data for risk analysis immersion 3.5. Risk Analysis Methodology Risk is the potential harm posed by a hazard in a region and a certain period which can be a death, injury, illness, endangered lives, the loss of safety, refuge, damage, or loss of property and disruption of community activities. In general, the risk can be interpreted as a possibility which can cause harm whether it be material, loss of life, environmental damage. Risk can also be interpreted as a possibility that could damage the social order, society and the environment caused by the interaction between threats and vulnerabilities. 3.5.1. Stages of Risk Analysis Risk analysis is part of a large framework in risk assessment. Risk assessment framework is generally done by Integrating the hazard, vulnerability, in a certain relationship of inter-related and affect each other as presented by the New Zealand Climate Change Office (2004) in Figure 3.6 below: The stages are presented in Figure 3.1 include: the identification of climate change issues in this case the potential impact / risks on coastal and marine sectors, and identification and description of risks, through identification of hazards and vulnerability. Further analysis of risk by Examining the existing management methods, and evaluation of risk by ranking priorities and Identifying key issues, and the last is the handling of risk, by Identifying Goals, targets and action on key issues, evaluation of cost and benefits of choice -existing increments, and choose apsi and action plans. The entire stage in the necessary communication with the community (community participation), review, monitoring and evaluation. Figure 3.6 Model risk assessment process (New Zealand Climate Change Office, 2004) Later stages above described in more detail as follows:
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Stage 1: Defining the load / problems and determine the context, strategy, organization and risk At this stage the context of the problem is the potential impact caused by hazards triggered by climate change that occurred in the coastal and marine areas. Therefore, first of all need to be done:

Defining the problem of the present and future Identify the variables of climate change and the dangers it caused such as ENSO, rob and extreme waves and the Variability Defininung activities should be done, including the assessment of planning and response period. Identify the variables of climate change and the dangers it caused such as ENSO, rob and extreme waves and the variability Pendefinisaian activities should be done, including the assessment of planning and response period. Superficial specification of the risk assessment process and how superficial it will be used in planning and decision making.
Further associated with the handling of the organization include: defining the responsibilities of central and local governments, A capacity whatever they had, what he provides services, structure and purpose of this treatment in relation to the handling of the impact of this climate change, so necessary:

Any mechanisms that already exist such as: the district government, community, strategic plans, and so forth; Assets and services provided in the form of organization and systems include: goal management, staffing, and allocation of resources.
A common method at this stage is to undertake a public consultation involving the public and stakeholders as well, Focus Group Discussion (FGD). This stage is very important in the risk assessment process, because this is the importance of considering the risks and accuracy of mitigation and adaptation actions can be judged . Stage 2: Identify hazards and risks drawing
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This second stage is very important to include people who have specific expertise related to the dangers of climate change and have a good knowledge of the area and location to be examined, such as:
Identifying the extent of buildings and facilities as well as the number of people in coastal areas exposed to potential hazards, issues of environmental changes that need to be considered, and how this may change with time. Identifying coastal morphology and how the spatial variations along the area to be examined (eg, sandy beaches, bertebing beach, estuary, etc.). Identify types of hazards triggered by climate change based on historical information and the information or the results of the current hazard assessment. In general, these dangers can be grouped into: Beach erosion caused by sea level rise Coastal flooding caused by ENSO, rob or gradual inundation from sea level rise and / or decrease in the face of the land; and Coastal flooding rapidly, for example by a storm surge or tsunami. Identify long-term changes caused by climate change. For example, for planning the 25-year time frame, the potential for a hazard events with a certain amount can be increased dramatically. Therefore tiered scenario becomes important when considering the danger to other than sea level rise, (such as sediment supply or tsunami)
Stage 3: Analysis of risk Risk assessment should be done by someone who specializes in marine science and kepantaian (related agency officials or specialist consultants) diamping it is important to review historical data and detailed thoroughly. Penilain these risks include:
Assessing the impact / risk of harm induced by climate change, a change in the coastal environment, building environment, human environment for each scenario danger
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level by classifying the impact, on a rskala as described in Table 3.8.
Table 3.7 Notation and the level of impact for various scenarios Impact Notati on 1 Major impact There is a financial loss is huge o The loss of a great service panjag term. o Loss of housing and facilities permanently.
o
Example
Lost their livelihoods on a large scale.

o
Secondary impacts (moderate)
Financial losses are high, maybe for some ownership. o Disruption of the service sector for several days. o People separated from his home for several weeks.
o
Major impact on the natural environment.

o
Small impact (minor)
Medium financial loss on a small number of ownership. o Disruption of the service sector for one or two days. o Considerable difficulties for some individuals.
o
Some impact on significant natural environment.

o
The impact is not so mean
Minimal financial loss.
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Discomfort in the short
term.
The actual impact assessment in the form of financial or monetary loss Election on a qualitative scale of impact was very subjective, but, during the approach applied consistently for each area or facility, the selection of an impact levels remain relatively consistent. After identifying potential hazards and the resulting impact, then the next step is to identify the probability of a hazard occurring and the impact on a particular facility (such as roads or settlements). For that, the characteristics of a hazard is important. For example, if the danger of inundation by storm waves, ENSO, rob, or tsunamis tend to be a recurring event (episodic). Data and information risk probability for a particular location should be analyzed using a specific method that can be done by groups or individuals who have good knowledge about the behavior of these hazards.
Stage 4: Evaluation and Risk Penilian Based on the assessment of the potential dangers and possible events, it can be determined the level of impact or risk incurred. For example, an incident with a moderate impact, but most likely to occur have a moderate risk. This should be included in response planning, but with low priority. In fact, local governments can act independently to decide the classification of risk. It should be noted that the statement "there is no danger of impact" is purely hypothetical (assumption) that a hazard will result in impacts. In this regard, the relevant question is "how much", not the statement "if it happened then ...". The process of evaluation must be done in two scenarios, first, an evaluation that ignores the effects of climate change, ENSO, rob, and storm surge, and second, an evaluation that takes into account the effects of these natural phenomena. This may result in different risk levels for both types of scenario. With this approach, risks can be prioritized and risk differences can be compared.
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In addition, the risks will change depending on the extent to which risk assessment scenarios to consider the future. Planning decisions should be based on the risk by estimating wiayah development and growth in msayarkat future. A risk assessment should include potential damage to infrastructure and the existing environment. This analysis will evaluate the potential value of damaged or lost due to the impact of a hazard which is often based on replacement price. Usually this analysis is based on various scenarios of danger and damage levels. Estimated potential loss would give the prioritasi to handle risk. Losing can be measured in real (in the financial reference) or is not real (not measured in financial reference). Therefore, the risk should be presented as a parameter to lose so decision makers can understand the implications.
Further identification of impacts and information about the risks should be documented properly. Although a risk of being seen not so important for the present, but at some point in the future could be very significant (eg a particular local-scale issues related to climate change). A common method of documentation is to tabulate the risk. Stage 5: Handling Risk With a good understanding of the implications and risks of the dangers that are triggered by climate change on coastal and marine areas is the next step is to assess how they should respond to these risks and managing risks and (risk management).
2.
Superficial Risk Analysis
Or superficial results of the analysis of this risk is primarily in the form:
Tabulation of the results of risk analysis results between the hazard overlay with the basic elements of vulnerability
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Tabulations and maps from the quantification of risk and the resulting potential impact. Type of loss estimates can also tabulated in the following form:
o o o o o
Loss of housing (buildings, personal property, food supplies, etc..) Loss of commercial (shops, banks, markets, hotels, food products and markets, etc..) Loss of use (electricity, water, telephone, irrigation facilities, rural roads, etc..) Loss of transport infrastructure (road surface, docks, airports, bridges, vehicles, etc..) Loss of public buildings (loss of government offices, buildings of worship, etc.)
Superficial from the study analyzed the level of risk is the risk that the material was then made to perform the steps in the preparation of adaptation strategies of coastal and marine areas.
II
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III CHAPTER. 4. POTENTIAL HAZARD ANALYSIS,

VULNERABILITY, AND RISK
1.
Increase in Sea Surface Analysis
Potential immersion in coastal areas is actually the sea level rise relative to sea level on average (MSL) which is caused by various elements of danger that is triggered by climate change such as:

Hazards associated with tidal (tide), like rob or storm tide. Danger sea level rise (SLR), Danger aikbat seasonal variability of oceanographic or Dekadal (ENSO), Hazards associated with storm surge (storm surge.)
In the analysis of rise in sea level (TML) and the potential impact keterkaitanya that occurred in the coastal areas of tsunami hazard study will also be taken into account, because the impact if a tsunami in the future will be even more awesome because of the existence of sea level rise (SLR ). The combination of these elements are schematically illustrated in Figure 4.1.
Figure 4.1 Schematic combination of various elements of the causes of sea level rise
1.
Analysis Based on the Sea Front rise Tidal Data
In analyzing the sea level rise, then the first step that needs to be done is the determination of high element of danger based on the maximum tide when the moon (MHWS = Mean High Water Springs). Pasut conditions in western and northern coast Lombok Island, may be represented by data from Ampenan pasut stations
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(see Figure 2.14 in the sub-chapter 2.6.5). Pasut high as the moon pasut predictions based on data for 1 (one) month at the station range from 0.8 m Ampenan, however taking into account the maximum sea level during the period of 18.6 years is the maximum height of MSL pasut taken at 1.2 m as the value pasut high danger in this study. Further analysis of available data from pasut Darwin station, Brome (Australia), Surabaya and Sandakan (East Malaysia) with data from the period 1980-2005 shows that there is an upward trend in sea level with the amount of each 4.5 mm / year in Darwin , 6.75 mm / year in Brome, 5.0 mm / year in Surabaya and 4.8 mm / year in Sandakan (Figure 4.2). By using linear regression analysis showed that sea level rise by 2100 range from 39-42 cm occur in Surabaya, Sandakan and Darwin, while in Benoa, Brome and Ambon occur sea level rise range from 62-70cm. The calculated projected sea level rise using data pasut in linear regression and extrapolated to the year 2100 can be seen in Figure 4.3.
Figure 4.2 Trends in sea level rise in Darwin, Broome, Surabaya and Sandakan from tidal data (Sofian, 2008)
Figure 4.3 Projected sea level rise in Benoa, Ambon, Broome, Darwin, Sandakan and Surabaya based on analysis of linear regeresi (Sofian, 2008)
2.
Analysis Based on sea-level rise Altimetri Satellite Data
Rise in sea level in Indonesian waters can be calculated based on satellite data altimetri (Aviso) as shown in Figure 4.4. Downscaling results altimetri satellite data (Figure 4.5) shows that the rate of rise in sea level in the North and South Lombok each approximately 3, 4 cm / decade and 4.5 cm / decade. Here it was apparent that the dynamics of oceanography in the southern part is more dynamic than the northern part of Lombok Island. This is because in the southern part is open water facing the Indian Ocean, while in northern waters facing the sea covered Java and Flores Sea.
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Figure 4.4 Distribution of increase in sea level until the year 2100 based on satellite data altimetri (Sofian, 2008).
Figure 4.5 The trend rise in sea level based on satellite data altimetri (Sofian, 2008)
3.
Analysis of sea-level rise by the IPCC models
Rise in sea level in Lombok waters varies between 40 cm to 80 cm in the year 2100. The quantity is obtained based on the results of model calculations of the IPCC sea level rise in value because of melting sea ice by 40 cm (see Figure 4.6). Calculation model of sea level rise is less than perfect because of the influence of melting ice, both at the North Pole or South Pole, so the level of trust from the results of this prediction is low.
Figure 4.6 Projected rise in sea level based on IPCC model Figure 4.7 shows the increase in sea surface temperature (SPL) at 3 0 C - 3.5 0 C in the year 2100. Assuming 1 0 C increase in sea surface temperature (SPL) is equivalent to a rise in sea level (TML) of 20 cm, then the sea level rise by 2100 range from 60 cm -70 cm. The value of this increase is still present in the range of water level rise the sea from both calculations pasut data regression and with the IPCC models.
Figure 4.7 rate of increase based on the IPCC SRES SPL, using a model MRI_CGCM 3.2 Resume projections of sea level rise calculated by using data pasut stations, satellite altimetri, and the IPCC model for coastal regions of North and South Lombok each tabulated in Table 4.1 and Table 4.2.
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Table 4.1 Detailed calculation results projected sea level rise on the northern coast of Lombok Island Year Projected sea-level rise from the projection Year 2000 North coast Lombok Island Data Pasut 2020 10 cm Altimetri IPCC Satellite Data model 7 cm - 8 cm 5, .1 cm 12.9 cm 3.4 cm 9.4 cm 6.7 cm 15.5 cm 2050 25 cm 17.5 cm - 20 cm 13.6 cm 33.4 cm 11.2 cm 20 cm 16.2 cm 35 cm 2080 40 cm 28 cm - 32 cm 27.1 cm 59 cm 24.1 cm 55 cm 24.1 cm 56 cm 2100 50 cm 35 to 40 cm 37.8 cm 78 cm 5.1 cm 12.9 cm High High Moderate to high Moderate to high Probability
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3.4 cm 9.4 cm
Table 4.2 Detailed calculation results projected sea level rise on the southern coast of Lombok Island Year Projected sea-level rise from the projection Year 2000 South coast Lombok Island Data Pasut 2020 12 cm Altimetri Satellite Data 9 to 10 cm IPCC model 5.1 cm 13.1 cm 5 cm - 13 cm 4.2 cm 11.5 cm 2050 32 cm 22.5 - 25 cm 14.1 cm 35.4 cm 13.2 cm 31.1 cm 13.2 cm 33 cm 2080 52 cm 32 to 40 cm 29.1 cm 61 cm 26.1 cm 58 cm 23.1 cm 55 cm High Moderate to high Moderate to high Probability
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2100
70 cm
45 to 50 cm
40.1 cm 80 cm 38 cm - 75 cm 32 cm - 70 cm
High
Note: Model estimated sea level rise (SLR) based on the IPCC Series: SRESa1b (scenario is) SRESa2 (high scenario) and SRESb1 (low scenario)
4.
Analysis of sea-level rise by ENSO, Hurricane and Tsunami Waves
Sea-level rise by the influence of oceanographic variability, storm and tsunami waves have been described in Chapter 2. High sea level rise due to these phenomena is as follows:
The influence of ENSO variability, ranging from 0.2 m (see Figure 2.13 Sub-section 2.6.4, or Figure 4.5 Sub-section 4.1.2), Storm wave height is assumed to be approximately 3 m to go to the shoreline (0.5 m by 2.5 m and surges by wind waves) (see Figure 2.18 Sub-section 2.6.6), Tsunami Tsunami is assumed to be equal to Pangandaran (2006) and Tsunami Banyuwangi (1994) with the run-up height of about 6-8 meters waves that struck South and North coast Lombok Island (Figure 2.20 Sub-section 2.6.7).
5.
Determination of High and Wide Area immersion in Coastal Areas
Based on the above analysis, the values of the potential hazards that contribute to sea level rise is tabulated as shown in Table 4.3.
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Table 4.3 The potential of each type of hazard Factor Potential increase in TML (m) Frequency Notes
2030 2050 2080 210 0 Sea-level rise 0:12 0:32 0:52 0.7 continuously prediction rising downloads pasut prediction assumption
Tides
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
Storm surges / waves extreme ENSO Tsunami
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
Seasonal
0.2 6-8
0.2 6-8
0.2 6-8
0.2 6-8
annual 100-year
prediction tsunami history
Based on the hazards mentioned above, the scenarios developed with the potential danger merendami coastal areas as presented in Table 4.4 Table 4.4 Scenario coastal immersion in Lombok Island Scenarios and the factors 2030 2050 2080 210 0 Scenario I (= Put + Increase Water Sea Front) Scenario II (= Water Place + Sea + Increase Home 1.52 1.72 1.92 2.1 m m m m 1.32 1.52 1.72 1.9 m m m m
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ENSO) Scenario III (= Water Front Place + Increase + Sea + Waves Hurricane ENSO) Scenario III (= Water Place + Sea + Increase Home Tsunami) 7.32 7.52 7.72 7.9 m m m m 4.32 4.52 4.72 4.9 m m m m
Scenario is then used as the level of danger on account of the highest level (Scenario III) has a probability of occurrence is very small. Conversely the lowest level (Scenario I) has a probability of occurrence is very large and occur continuously. Hazard occurrence probability is shown by the following graph:
Figure 4.8 The probability of occurrence of each scenario

6.
Hazard Analysis immersion

1.
2. Hazard Analysis immersion Lombok Island Coastal Sector
Candidate Lombok sector covers the whole of Lombok Island beaches and small islands around it. High sea level rise is in Table 4.4 and direndamkan on Lombok Island coastal areas using topographic maps with a scenario SRTM30 years 2030, 2080 and 2100 so that it can be seen rendamannya areas as shown in Figure 4.9. Luas marinade for each scenario is tabulated in Table 4.5. (a) Map of immersion in 2030 (c) Map of immersion in 2100 (b) Map of immersion in 2080
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Figure 4.9 Map of Lombok Island marinade for the year 2030 (a), 2080 (b) and 2100 (c) Table 4.5 The area for the marinade Lombok Island in 2030, 2080, and 2100 No Hazard Scenario Area (Ha) 2030 1 2 3 4 Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV 2080 2100
1215.86 1590.56 1750.56 701.9 744.37 1026.31
5258.73 5609.18 5635.0 7768.67 7934.11 8039.14
Further immersion area for each district and sub-coastal areas affected Lombok Island immersion can be seen in Appendix I, respectively, and Table LI1 Table L.1.2.
2.
Sector Analysis immersion Coastal Hazards Mataram and Sekitarnya
Candidate sector Mataram and surrounding areas covering 9 districts namely Kota district in the region is Sub Ampenan Mataram, Mataram District, and District Cakranegara, whereas in the District of West Lombok Regency is Batu Layar Sub, Sub Gunung Sari, Labuanapi District, district of Kediri , District growled, and District Sheet. Immersion analysis conducted on the coastal areas surrounding the City of Mataram and in order to get more detail on these areas, results of immersion of various scenarios for the years 2030, 2080 and 2100 can be seen in Figure 4.10 with immersion area as tabulated in Table 4.6
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(a) Map of immersion in 2030 (c) Map of immersion in 2100
(b) Map of immersion in 2080
Figure 4.10 Map of Mataram marinade and around the year 2030 (a), the year 2080 (b) and 2100 (c). Table 4.6 The area immersion Mataram and surrounding areas in 2030, 2080, and 2100 No Hazard Scenario Area (Ha) 2030 1 2 3 4 Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV 231.91 57.97 1495.9 2084.33 2080 286.47 61.08 1728.25 1994.55 2100 308.93 184.24 1639.61 1994.91
Further immersion area for each district in the coastal areas surrounding the City of Mataram and the pool of potentially affected can be seen in Appendix I.
2.
Vulnerability Analysis To Increase Sea Front
The elements considered in vulnerability analysis are: Types of Land Use, Population Density, Infrastructure is important, elevation, slope and level of Population Welfare. These elements based on dibobotkan following formulation:
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where: : Constant weighting D: Population Density Ks: Level of Population Welfare Lu: Type of Land Use E: Elevation S: slope Inf: Infrastructure Vulnerability Value obtained from pairwise comparation method. Vulnerability analysis was conducted for two scenarios regardless of the level of welfare of the population and the level of welfare of the population. Besides covering the above two scenarios, this vulnerability analysis conducted at the study site and Lombok Mataram city and surrounding areas. Weighting for each factor in the vulnerability can be seen in Appendix II.
1.
Vulnerability Analysis of Coastal Sector Lombok Island
Level of coastal vulnerability in the island of Lombok is determined by several factors including: population density, type of land use, elevation, slope, vulnerability of critical infrastructure, and the level of welfare of the population. The weight of each of these parameters is determined by the size of the parameter influence on the risk of immersion and the data confidence level, in this case the spatial accuracy of data. While pembobotannya method using pairwise comparation method. Figure 4.11 shows a map of each element of vulnerability. While Figure 4.12 shows the vulnerability maps without taking into account elements taking into account the welfare and prosperity element. Then Table 4.7 shows the level of vulnerability along just
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fine without luasannya, and taking into account the welfare of the population factor.
Land use map
Distribution map of population density levels Topographic map
Distribution of critical infrastructure
Kelerangan topographic maps Population welfare Map Figure 4.11 Map of the elements considered in vulnerability analysis for coastal areas Lombok Island (a) Without taking into account the welfare (b) Taking into account the welfare
Figure 4.12 Map of Lombok island vulnerability to the potential immersion without (a) and with (b) the level of welfare of the population Table 4.7 The area of vulnerability level Lombok Island
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Area (Ha) No Vulnerabilit y Level Regardless of the Taking into account level of welfare of the the welfare of the population population 67.002,00 68.512,00 85.752,00 37.476,00 20.900,00 204.017,13 96.366,12 107.699,07 38.714,62 9.418,43
1 2 3 4 5
Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once
2.
Vulnerability Analysis of Coastal Sector and Sekitarnya Mataram
Similarly, vulnerability analysis has been done to the island of Lombok, then for the City of Mataram and its surroundings, vulnerability factors to be considered are population density, type of land use, elevation, slope, vulnerability of critical infrastructure, and population welfare. The weight of each parameter is determined by the size of the parameter influence on the risk of immersion and the data confidence level, in this case the spatial accuracy of data. While pembobotannya method using pairwise comparation method. Figure 4.15 shows a map of each vulnerability factor. While Figure 4.16 shows the vulnerability maps without taking into account factors taking into account the welfare and well-being factors. Then Table 4.8 shows the level of vulnerability along just fine without luasannya, and taking into account the welfare of the population factor.
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Land use map
Distribution map of population density levels Topographic map
Distribution of critical infrastructure
Kelerangan topographic maps Population welfare Map
Figure 4.13 Map of the elements considered in vulnerability analysis for the coastal areas and surrounding Mataram (a) Without taking into account the welfare (b) Taking into account the welfare
Figure 4.14 Map of potential susceptibility to immersion without (a) and with (b) the level of welfare of the population Table 4.8 The area of vulnerability levels and Mataram city and surrounding areas without taking into account the welfare of the population Area (Ha) No Vulnerability Regardless of the level Level of welfare of the Taking into account the welfare of the population
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population 1 2 3 4 5 Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once
3.
13.261,60 5.401,15 7.24,36 4.429,75 5.826,37
12.429,88 5.555,38 5.560,73 4.430,74 8.166,52
Risk Analysis immersion
Risk analysis is done by soaking the coast to overlay the map with the marinade hazard vulnerability maps, both without taking into account the welfare and taking into account the welfare of the population for each of the coastal areas and Lombok Mataram city and its surroundings.
1.
Risk Analysis of Coastal Area Lombok Island
Coastal risk maps Lombok Island regardless of the level of welfare of the population and taking into account the level of welfare of the population can be seen respectively in Figure 4.15 and Figure 4.16. Furthermore Table 4.9 shows the level of risk along just fine without luasannya, and taking into account the welfare of the population factor. (a) disaster risk map in 2030 (c) disaster risk map in 2100 (b) Map of disaster risk in 2080
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Figure 4.15 Map of 2030s disaster risk (a), 2080s (b), and the 2100s (c) regardless of Lombok Island welfare factors (a) disaster risk map in 2030 (c) disaster risk map in 2100 Figure 4.16 Map of 2030s disaster risk (a), 2080s (b), and the 2100s (c) Lombok Island with welfare factors Table 4.9 The area of risk level Lombok Island, without and with the level of welfare of the population Risk Area (Ha) No Level Without taking into account the welfare of factors Year 2030 1 Less Risky Self Risk 2080 2100 (b) Map of disaster risk in 2080
Taking into account the welfare of factors
Year 2030 2080 2100
10.540,67 9817.15 9.449,31 8.358,78 4.780,11 5.246,72 5.440,64
7.611,1 7.347,14
3.929,19 4.025,99 4.090,59
Risky 574.28
812.07
978.93 1.876,49 2.141,43
2.330,39
Very Risky
67.75
86.87
93.93 1.701,06 2.119,14
2.355,53
2.
Risk Analysis of Coastal Area and Sekitarnya Mataram
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Risk maps of coastal areas and surrounding Mataram regardless of the level of welfare of the population and taking into account the level of welfare of the population can be seen respectively in Figure 4.17 and Figure 4.18. Next Table 4.10 shows the level of risk along just fine without luasannya, and taking into account the welfare of the population factor (a) disaster risk map in 2030 (c) disaster risk map in 2100 Figure 4.17 Map of 2030s disaster risk (a), 2080s (b), and the 2100s (c) The city of Mataram and its surroundings without taking into account the welfare of factors (a) disaster risk map in 2030 (c) disaster risk map in 2100 Figure 4.18 Map of the risks in 2030s (a), 2080s (b), and the 2100s (c) The city of Mataram and its surroundings by taking into account the welfare of factors Table 4.10 The area of risk level and the surrounding Mataram, without and with the level of welfare of the population using the scenario IV Risk No Level Area (Ha) Without taking into account the welfare of factors Year 2030 2080 2100 Taking into account the welfare of factors (b) Map of disaster risk in 2080 (b) Map of disaster risk in 2080
Year 2030 2080 2100
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Less Risky Self Risk Risky Very Risky
2,230
1,931
1,872
1,768
1,481
1,422
1,613
1,854
1,817
976
980
933
3 4
218 65
258 84
349 90
763 621
928 738
959 813
From the analysis and the level of risk without considering the welfare for the City of Mataram and its surroundings as given in Table 4.10 shows that the calculation without including the level of risk factors provides extensive welfare immersion smaller than in the well-being into account. This is because that since the welfare level of the coastal masayarkat very low, thus increasing the vulnerability, which resulted in meningkannya which has an area dearah very risky levels. Some interesting things from the analysis of this risk level is the increase of LAUS areas into less risky areas is quite a risk, the risk enough to be at risk, then the risk becomes very risky from 2030 to 2080 and from 2080 to 2100. So finally less risky areas decreased karean has turned into a fairly risky areas and so on. From the analysis of vulnerability and risk, a very risky area is Ampenan district, Kota Mataram (see Annex III) and an area as shown in Table 4:11 Table 4:11 The area of risk level and Sub Ampenan without taking into account the level of welfare of the population using the scenario IV City Skills Risk Area (Ha) observatio Level Without the ns welfare of the population
With the welfare of the population
2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 2100
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Ampenan Matara m
KB CB B SB
557 533 74 59
450 614 85 75
429 570 144 81
150 522 104 446
61 515 123 525
42 516 95 570
Note: KB = Less Risky, CB = Quite Risky, B: Risk, SB = Very Risky While the potential impact on buildings and infrastructure in the district in 2030 Ampenan with various scenarios danger can be seen in Table 4.12. For the other districts can be found in Appendix IV. Table 4:12 Potential Impact on buildings and infrastructure in Sub Ampenan Infrastructure Sken- Sken- SkenUnit Sken- II III IV I Km 1:15 unit -unit -unit 1 unit -unit -unit -unit -unit -unit -1:56 --1 ------19.70 -1 8 1 ----1 67.48 -4 15 1 1 3 1 1 5
Way Historic Buildings Church Bridge Police Station Head Office Office of village Post Office Kantor Telkom Hindu cemetery
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Christian graves Islamic cemetery Tower Suar Mosque PLTD Market Pura Community Health Center / Hospital School Pertamina tanker
unit -unit -unit -unit -unit -unit -unit -unit --
---1 -----
1 --6 1 ----
1 3 2 18 2 3 5 5
unit -unit --
---
2 --
21 8
2.
The concept of Adaptation Strategy for Coastal and Marine Sector Hazards and Potential Impact
1.
Based on the analysis above, the island of Lombok, Mataram in particular, is potentially facing natural hazards triggered by climate change, the form of: increase in air temperature and sea water, increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, changes in rainfall patterns and river flows due to changes in natural climate variability, and 4. sea level rise.
1. 2. 3.
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Potential impacts of climate change on coastal and marine sector caused by these hazards, has been felt by coastal communities and other stakeholders such as the ferry dock tergenangnya infrastructure and other facilities in coastal areas by storm and rob. Besides, the potential impacts of climate change in the coastal sector, marine and fisheries are described according to the type of danger as in Table 5.1
Table 5.1 Potential-potential impact on the sector dangers posed by climate change Hazards 1. The increase in sea temperature Potential Impact

Damage to coral reefs from bleaching (coral bleaching) Changes in migration patterns of fish Changes in species life cycle by flow ditransporkan Changes in the composition of biological diversity in a region Environmental degradation in the marine fish resources The demise of marine biota that are not able to adapt Damage to habitat in the estuary and wetlands Rob on coastal flooding and wetlands, especially if the mangroves and wetlands can not retreat (retreat) Increased coastal erosion Sinking of some small islands Damage to residential area
2. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (storms, cyclones)
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Disruption of settlements Terendamnya socioeconomic activities Damage to coastal infrastructure and facilities Terendamnya infrastructure disruption of economic activity The withdrawal of the state border by the sinking of a small island and the withdrawal of strategic outer coastline near the border Flooding river and estuary, or: Decrease in river and estuary flow Decrease the supply and quality of fresh water to the residential area Decrease in river water quality and groundwater Changes in intake of nutrients and sediment into the estuary and coast Increased intrusion of salt in river water mass and ground water Hydraulic regime changes that affect wetlands Changes in migration patterns of fish migration fishing ground area Changes in the species life cycle ditransporkan youth on the beach by the waves Changes in the vertical transport of oxygen and nutrients from the sea in primary productivity changes Changes in the composition of biological diversity in a region Environmental degradation in the marine fish resources Changes in the availability of natural feed for aquaculture Modification of the food chain in the ecosystem Capture fisheries production
3.a. Changes in natural climate variability Changes in rainfall patterns and river flow)
3.b. Changes in natural climate variability change ocean circulation patterns)
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decreased 4. Sea level rise
Rob on coastal flooding and wetlands, especially if the mangroves and wetlands can not retreat (retreat) Sinking of some small islands Increased coastal erosion Disruption of settlements Terendamnya socioeconomic activities Infrastructure and facilities Terendamnya disruption of economic activity sinking of small islands and coastline retreat near the border
Increased intrusion of salt in river water mass and ground water 2. Referrals Adaptation
By considering the various potential impacts of climate change as has been described above it is necessary to set a long-term strategy to anticipate it. In the coastal and marine sector, the anticipation of much manifested in the form of adaptation that is accompanied by mitigation. Adaptation to climate change refers to the intervention efforts as a response to climate change is and will be designed to reduce the risk or potential impact on communities and ecosystems, or even exploit the opportunities that could benefit caused by climate changes. The efforts in climate change adaptation is the adjustment of action of human individuals or groups whether they are reactive, anticipatory, and adaptive to deal with the potential impacts of climate change. Basically, this effort aims to reduce the level of vulnerability, namely by:

exposure and sensitivity to reduce socio-economic and environmental strengthen resilience and enhance adaptive capacity
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While mitigation of climate change is anthropogenic intervention efforts in the climate system is designed to reduce anthropogenic forces of the climate system that cause global warming. Efforts undertaken to reduce emissions of greenhouse-gas from the source and improve the natural ability to absorb these emissions. Adaptation strategies are accompanied by the necessary mitigation is incorporated into development planning West Nusa Tenggara Province both medium term and long term. Diposaptono et al (2009) proposed a framework to develop the concept of adaptation is accompanied by mitigation as in Figure 5.1 below. Figure 5.1 Adaptation framework that comes with climate change mitigation (Diposaptono et al, 2009) Conceptually, adaptation to climate change at least consists of seven steps that are cycle (Figure 5.2), namely: (1) involving relevant stakeholders, (2) determine the problem, (3) assess the available capacity and adaptation is necessary, (4) identify adaptation options, (5) evaluate adaptation options and chose the action (6) the implementation of adaptation actions, and (7) monitor and evaluate the implementation of adaptation. Figure 5.2 The sequence of seven steps in the process of adaptation to climate change (Diposaptono et al, 2009) Directions of adaptation strategies that can basically be grouped into:
1. a.
Physical adaptation of coastal zones and small islands Physical management of coastal zones and small islands in an integrated
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b. 2. 3. 4.
Physical engineering environmental perspective Social management of population Management of infrastructure and facilities Management of coastal marine resource potential, and fisheries Management and marketing of capture fisheries Marketing management and aquaculture Management of water resources Defense resource management and security (small islands strategically located on the border with neighboring countries) Ecosystem management of coastal zones and small islands in an integrated
a. b. c. d.
5.
Formulation of regulation and climate change adaptation policy 7. Inventory data and research and development of human resources
6. 3.
Priority Program for Adaptation
Based on the analysis of the alternative directions of adaptation strategies associated with the size of the potential impacts and vulnerability in coastal island of Lombok, Mataram in particular can be formulated in (9) nine excellent program that can be grouped into four groups as follows: Table 5.1 Nine priority programs for adaptation to climate change coastal sectors, and marine, No Group Programs Competit ive Competitive Program
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Inventory data, information systems, and research
Strengthening research capacity, monitoring, and assessment of: understanding the phenomenon, the potential impacts, vulnerability, adaptation, mitigation of climate change
Planning
Planning and management of natural resources and ecosystems of coastal and small islands in an integrated Strengthening the capacity and the adjustment and spatial layout and zoning of coastal waters to climate change Formulation / adjustment of regulations and policies on adaptation and mitigation of climate change on coastal and marine areas. Training and training Level adjustment and strengthening of building structures and vital facilities in coastal areas Management and protection of small islands Management of disaster hazards due to the impact of extreme weather events and climate variability on integrated coastal Management of capture fisheries resource potential of integrated Management of aquaculture resource potential
Regulation, policy 4 and institutional capacity
Implementation
6 7
8 9
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Priority programs are described as follows. Program-1: Strengthening research capacity, monitoring, and the study of understanding the phenomenon, the potential impacts, vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation of climate change:
Strengthening the data base and information system, with complementary data generated by MCRMP (Marine and Coastal Resource Management Project) for the location of NTB Province Strengthening research and monitoring Vulnerability and adaptation studies are more detailed, especially in the city of Mataram and other important areas Guidance and training for extension Socialization to the coastal communities Mainstreaming in the national education curriculum
Program-2: Planning and management of natural resources and ecosystems of coastal and small islands in an integrated

Maintenance and rehabilitation of coastal resources and ecosystems in an integrated Public education about: coral reefs, small islands, mangrove forests, wetlands, shoreline, estuary and continental shelf areas
Program-3: Strengthening the capacity and the adjustment and spatial planning and zoning of coastal waters to climate change
Adjustment and spatial zoning and coastal waters of the dangers of a pool rob and storm surge, and tsunami
Program-4: Preparation / adjustment of regulations and policies on adaptation and mitigation of climate change on coastal and marine areas

Creation and adjustment of regulations and policies related to climate change (legislation, or Kepgub). Socialization among government officials and community leaders
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Strengthening institutional capacity for adaptation and mitigation Strengthening human resources for managing climate change adaptation Socialization to the coastal communities and the general institutional strengthening programs and human resources and socialization to manage adaptation to climate change
Program-5: Adjustment of the level and structure of the building and strengthening the vital facilities in coastal areas

Identify current conditions and future projections for all infrastructure in the entire coastal region Level adjustment and strengthening of building structures and vital facilities in the coastal
Program-6: Management and protection of small islands

Identify current conditions and future projections for small islands like the island in 3 earthen. Vegetation planting and maintenance Gumuk beach sand and coral reefs Development of coastal protection and navigation safety facilities Management of water resources
Program-7: The management of disaster hazards due to the impact of extreme wave events and the variability in coastal oceanography in an integrated

Strengthening the capacity of disaster mitigation in the coastal and sea. Strengthening the capacity to transport and supply system needs to live in a remote coastal areas
Program-8: The management of capture fisheries resource potential of integrated

Development of information systems and mapping dynamic fishing ground Strengthening the capacity of fishermen to reach the fishing ground off the coast of Development of cold chain system from the ship to TPI (fish auction Iempat) and unit scale household processing.
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Program-9: Management of fishery resource potential marine aquaculture, brackish water, and freshwater

The development of marine farming is not vulnerable to climate change (grouper, snapper, sea grass, red algae) Development of information systems seeding season Development of alternative sources of natural food Exaltation and embankment strengthening existing pond
4.
Alternative Strategies Based Adaptation Potential Hazards, Vulnerability, and Potential Impact
Danger-1: Increase the temperature of sea water. Projected sea water temperature rise an average of 0.2 o C 0.1 C in the year 2030 (IPCC SRES, Sofian, 2009) Vulnerability Potential impacts Alternative Adaptation Strategies
o
There are 50 districts in the coastal area of Lombok Island There aquaculture business (embankment) There has been much damage to coral reefs
Changes in Integrated area coastal management: ecosystems and marine Management Changes in the and composition of rehabilitation biological of coral reefs diversity in a Management region and Fish migration rehabilitation of wetlands Color bleaching Management coral (coral and bleaching) rehabilitation of the estuary Management of capture fisheries
Management
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of aquaculture
Danger-2: Increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (storms, cyclones). Tropical Cyclone season generally occurs in the West wind and the transition to the East wind season (December-April), which most often occurs in January and February (Hadi, 2008)
Vulnerability
Potential impacts Alternative Adaptation Strategies
There are 50 Increased intensity Integrated area districts in the and frequency of management: coastal region storms that cause coast Lombok Mapping and rain, strong winds, Island strengthening of lightning, and storm There data and surge, causing aquaculture information on further impact in business hazards, (embankment) the form of: vulnerabilities, and There are risks along the tourist areas, inundating coastal areas of especially in the the beach inventory disaster West Lombok (flood rob), prone areas of District especially extreme climate Landainya during high events coast, especially tide and a Planning inventory in Kota Mataram decline in the (stock) of food, The number of face of local materials and other vital land production and infrastructure increased consumption for (ports, oil coastal coastal communities refineries, erosion Coastal border
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provincial roads, etc.) The absence of a barrier island Overlooking the Indian Ocean and Java Sea are sometimes experienced a storm surge propagation from the Indian Ocean
cause damage to coastal settlements and facilities affect the circulation of seawater and sediment transport cause damage to coral reefs
adjustment Zoning, land use and spatial planning of coastal waters Maintenance and rehabilitation of natural sand dunes Management and rehabilitation of wetlands Planting, maintenance, and rehabilitation of coastal vegetation (mangrove, etc.) Management and rehabilitation of coral reefs Strengthening the capacity and natural disaster mitigation system in the sea
Engineering environmental perspective:
Postponement / relocation of settlements and infrastructure in coastal landward Enhancement of coastal land in the face Construction of seawall, revetment, groin on the shoreline Construction of the breakwater Door water and
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retaining pasut Rejuvenation beach (beach nourishment) on a periodic basis Construction of houses on stilts
Danger-3. Changes in rainfall patterns and river flows due to changes in natural climate variability (El-Nino [EN], La-Nina [LN]). Projection EN and LN as follows (Sofian, 2009):

2010-2012: EN and LN 1 alternate for the annual 2017-2021: EN and LN alternate for the annual 1-3 2023-2027: EN and LN alternate for 6-9 months, interspersed with normal periods. 2029-2030: 1st annual occurred EN
Vulnerability
Potential impacts
Alternative Adaptation Strategies Integrated area management:
There are 50 districts in the coastal area of Lombok Island There aquaculture business (embankme nt) Presence of several estuaries, especially the river
Affect the water balance in an ecosystem. Danger of flooding or otherwise drought
If there was a flood then further impacts include: Increase the flow of fresh water from upstream Perlapisan sea water column in coastal and
Mapping and strengthening of data and information on hazards, vulnerabilities, and risk coastal areas and small Islands with an inventory of flood prone areas and drought The management of fresh water supply into the
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through the Ampenan
estuary Increase the concentration of oxygen in the deep Immersion habitat in the estuary, thereby reducing the role of the estuary as a supporter and guardian of the animal and plant populations on the coast In the event of drought impacts information is as follows: Reduction of freshwater flow from upstream Mixing of sea water column in coastal and estuary Reduction of concentration of oxygen in the deep Reduction of intake of nutrients into coastal ecosystems, The decline of water quality, Increased risk of rapid development of algae
coastal and small Islands which include: Monitoring of river flow and groundwater Monitoring of river water quality and ground water (pollutants and nutrients) Clean water management Planning inventory (stock) of food, materials and other production and consumption for coastal communities Management of aquaculture Coastal border adjustment Land use zoning, coastal Maintenance and rehabilitation of natural sand dunes Management and rehabilitation of wetlands Management and rehabilitation of coral reefs Management and rehabilitation of the estuary Planting, maintenance, and rehabilitation of coastal vegetation
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Strengthening the capacity and natural disaster mitigation system in the sea
Engineering environmental perspective:
Construction of dams, embankments, retaining flood and drainage for the management of water resources Making the well catchment
Danger-4. The increase in sea level with an average projection of 12 cm in the year 2030 (Sofian, 2009) Sea level will further increase:

maximum of about 3 meters during a storm (item 2) few centimeters when there was a flood of the river (item 3) of 10-20 cm during a La-Nina (item 4) maximum of about 2 meters during the highest tide (perigee-highest spring tide) on a periodic basis once 19 years
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Vulnerability
Potential impacts
Alternative Adaptation Strategies
There are 50 districts in the coastal area of Lombok Island There aquaculture business (embankmen t) There is a coastal tourist areas Landainya coastal city of Mataram
The number of vital infrastructur e (ports, oil refineries, provincial This becomes extreme roads, etc.) flooding during high tide and a decline in
Coastal land Integrated area inundation management: (flooding rob); except: Mapping and If the swamp strengthening of and mangrove data and forests have information on enough sediment hazards, to raise the paras vulnerabilities, and wetlands as sea risks along the level rise, or coastal areas of If these wetlands disaster prone can move areas inventory of upstream where sea level rise there are no Coastal border human adjustment development, the Zoning, land use wetlands are to and spatial survive on the planning of coastal rate of sea level waters rise as predicted Maintenance and now. rehabilitation of
natural sand dunes Management and rehabilitation of wetlands
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the face of local land. Impact advanced form of:
disruption of coastal settlement areas disruption of socio-economic activities of coastal communities Engineering damage to environmental coastal perspective: infrastructure hydraulic regime Postponement / change that relocation of affects the settlements and wetland infrastructure in ecosystem coastal landward Enhancement of Addition of sea coastal land in the water intrusion face through the river Construction of water and seawall, ground water revetment, groin on the shoreline Door water and retaining pasut Rejuvenation beach (beach nourishment) on a periodic basis
Planting, maintenance, and rehabilitation of coastal vegetation (mangrove, etc.) Management of coastal aquaculture and small Islands
Making wells to inhibit the absorption rate of decline in the face of the land
5.
Ascension Risk Management Sea Front
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Management of sea level rise risks that need to be done by the NTB provincial government or local governments, especially the city of Mataram are:
Improving and developing immersion map, a detailed and accurate with re-entering the period to determine the distribution of risk at the district level based on the data and the latest methodology. Improving assessment of vulnerability and risk assessment with the input data hazard, vulnerability, adaptive capacity is more complete. Identify the level of risk and provide support for penganggulangan plan for disaster risk posed by sea level rise Risk assessment can be done through several stages of accuracy, ranging from rapid risk assessment and subsequent stages of risk assessment conducted by the level of detail better accuracy.
For areas that have a high risk level:
Conduct hazard study sea level rise with the data carefully pasut, SLR, ENSO, storm surge, rob, and more accurate tsunami Conduct vulnerability studies and eksposer hazards of sea level rise Necessary to study sea level rise risks in detail to formulate the steps necessary risk reduction, Management master plan risk reduction sea level rise. Conduct review of spatial structure so familiar sea level rise hazard Develop policies and action plans for reducing the risk of sea level rise as making green belt and sea wall, Conducting dissemination, socialization, training of trainers Conducting review and implementation of surveillance and control system layout is familiar dangers of the sea level rise Develop and implement programs to socialize and educate the public about sea level rise disasters Strengthening government institutions and nongovernmental organizations in the sea level rise
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mengandalikan refer to the results of studies of disaster risk sea level rise.
For areas with medium risk level (moderate): Necessary for disaster risk assessment sea level rise in detail to formulate steps for disaster risk reduction is needed.

Conduct hazard study sea level rise and development carefully hazard map sea level rise Conducting studies and vulnerability to hazards eksposer sea level rise Necessary to study sea level rise risks in detail to formulate the steps necessary risk reduction. Develop policies and action plans for reducing the risk of sea level rise as making green belt, and the sea wall Management master plan for disaster risk reduction in sea level rise
For areas that have a low risk level: Risk assessment needs to be done quickly (rapid risk assessment) the dangers and impact of sea level rise to formulate steps for disaster risk reduction is needed. Then recommends steps further on the basis of risk assessment results quickly.
IV BIBLIOGRAPHY
Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Heritage (March 2005). Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability, Promoting an efficient adaptation responsein Australia, Final Report, Reported by the Allen Consulting Group
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Berkhout, F., J. Hertin and DM Gann (2006), Learning to indigenous: organizational adaptation to climate change impacts. Climatic Change, 2006 Boesch, DF, JC Field, D. Scavia (Eds.) (2000). The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change on Coastal Areas and Marine Resources. Report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program. CCSP (2008). Abrupt Climate Change. Final Report: Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 3.4 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Sub-committee on Global Change Research [Clark, PULAUU., AJ Weaver (Coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, ER Cook, TL Delworth, K. Steffen (lead chapter authors)]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 459 pp. Diposaptono, S., Budiman, F. Agung (2009). Deal with Climate Change in Coastal Regions and Small Islands. Popular Scientific Publishers, mold I, Bogor Hadi. T, (2008). Ministry of Environment and GTZ (2009). Draft Final Report Vulnerability and Risk Study of Climate Change Lombok Island, NTB. IPCC (2007). Chapter-6 Coastal systems and low-lying areas, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. IPCC (2007). The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. IPCC (2008) Distribution Data Center, Environmental Data and Scenarios, 2008, available at http://www.ipccdata.org/ddc_envdata.html. Retrieved on December 24, 2008 IPCC (2008), IPCC Working Group II Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II Report "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability", Chapter 3, Freshwater Resources and their Management, available at http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4wg2.htm. Retrieved on December 28, 2008
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Latief, H., Gusman, AD Julkarnaen (2006), Modeling Tsunami Pangandaran, Research Report, Tsunami Research Group, ITB Mango SA, Atmawinata S, Hermanto B, Amin TC (1994). Geological Sheet Lombok, Nusa Tenggara, 1807 Fact Sheet, Center for Research and Development of Geology, Bandung. Manyena, SB (2006). The Concept of Resilience Revisited. Disasters, Vol. 30, no. 4, 433-450, ISSN 0361-3666 Murray, SPand D. Arief, 1988, Throughflow into the Indian Ocean through the Lombok Strait, January 1985 - January 1986, Nature, 333, 444-447. Ningsih, NS (2009). II.2. Install storm waves. In: Council of Professors of Institut Teknologi Bandung, Managing Disaster Risk in the State Maritime Indonesia: Disaster Earth, Marine, and atmospheric, Bandung. NOAA (2008), SPI Information in the National Weather Service Forecast Office, Honolulu, HI, available at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/hydro/ pages / spi_info.htm Retrieved on December 30, 2008 Sprintall, J. Chong, F. Syamsudin, W. Morawitz, S. Hautala, N. Bray, S. Wijffels, (1999). Dynamics of the South Java Current in the Indo-Australian Basin, Geophys. Res. Lttrs, 26, 2493-2496. Sofian, I, K. Kozai, and T. Ohsawa, (2008), Investigation on the relationship between wind-induced volume transport and the mean sea level in the Java Sea using an oceanic general circulation model, J. Met. and Ocean. Soc. of Japan, Umitosora, 84:1-17. Suroso DS (2008). Proposed Approach, Framework and Methodology for Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change in Indonesia, Report to KLH-GTZ Syamsudin F., A. Kaneko, and DB Haidvogel, (2004), Numerical and Observational Estimates of Indian Ocean Kelvin Wave Intrusion into Lombok Strait, Geophys. Res. Lett.
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The New Zealand Climate Change Office (NZCCO) of the Ministry for the Environment, (2005). Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A guidance manual for local government in New Zealand, May 2005 UNDP-GEF-IUCN-MRC-Funded Program (2005), Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Risks in Attapeu Province, Loa PDR. Mekong Wetland Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Use Program Wyrtki, 1961. Physical Oceanography of the Southeast Asian Waters. NAGA Report, No. 2, University of California
V LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
EA : Arlindo : AC : BB : BT : BBU :
Environmental Impact Assessment Arus Lintas Indonesia Adaptive Capacity West Longitude East Longitude Northern Hemisphere
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BBS : BNPB : BOM : E : EE : ENSO : FGD : G : Grk : H : HYCOM : IPCC : IPCC AR4 IPO : Decrees :
Southern Hemisphere National Disaster Management Agency Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government Exposure Extreme Event El Nino Southern Oscillation Form Group Discussion, Mount, Gungungapi gas-greenhouse gases Hazard Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change assessment : report 4 th edition Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Decision of Minister
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LS : N : MCRMP : MSL : NOAA : NTB : NTT : PP :
South Latitude North Latitude Marine and Coastal Management Project Mean Sea Level National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Nusa Tenggara Barat Nusa Tenggara Government Regulation
Local Local Government Government : Perda : PIDAK Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, : or Climate Change Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability / CCIAV Risk : S : SPL SLR Sea surface temperature / sea surface temperature : (SST) Sea Level Rise: Sea level rise Sensitivity Local regulations
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: SWH : SRES: : SRTM30 : TML : TPI : UNDP : Law : V : Vulnerability (Vulnerabilities) Law United Nation Development Program Fish auction place High Sea Front Suttle Radar Topography Mission 30 Minutes Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Significant Wave Height
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VI APPENDIX
APPENDIX I POTENTIAL IMMERSION Table L.I.1 immersion area per district for all Lombok Island Coastal Region No District Hazard Scenario Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III 2564.09 2829.28 4 Scenario IV 3508.68 3508.68 5 6 7 8 Lombok Tengah Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV 1064.52 1088.80 9 10 11 East Lombok Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III 1430.28 1458.90 12 Scenario IV 2571.08 2768.51 2836.60 528.10 276.32 623.50 318.66 685.75 352.86 1458.90 136.42 163.40 779.90 286.47 163.40 779.90 330.40 168.55 779.90 1095.96 3539.77 Area (Ha) 2030 466.01 211.28 2080 571.85 241.15 2100 616.26 429.10 2724.49
1 2 3
West Lombok
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13 Mataram 14 15 16
Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV
85.32 20.85 444.82 566.83
108.74 21:15 471.71 566.83
118.16 75.81 471.71 566.83
Table L.I.2 Immersion area Per Sub for All Lombok Island Coastal Region District No 1 West Lombok 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Scenario III 11 45.53 51.98 56.01 Ganga Bayan Batu Layar Sub Hazard Scenario Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV Scenario I Scenario II area (Ha) 2030 2080 2100 1:21 1.2 8:36 240.6 252.66 3.85 6:08 4:15 6:58 4.2 6.75 1.6 1.2 1.68 1.79
28.32 29.8 258.89
11:34 12.94 14:58 54.04 61.55 64.16 0.62 1:06 1.1 1:06 1:22 1:06
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Scenario IV 12 Growled 13 Scenario II 14 Scenario III 15 Scenario IV 16 Gunung sari 17 Scenario IV 18 Kayangan 19 Scenario II 20 Scenario III 21 Scenario IV 22 Labuapi 23 Scenario II 24 Scenario III 25 Scenario IV 26 Scenario I Scenario I Scenario III Scenario I
95.42 99.76 100.82 0:47 0.66 0.8 1:59 1.1 2.84 280.37 237.06 271.43 138.61 138.61 138.61 40.48 42.24 90.77 90.77 92.85 0:36 1:55 0.88 1.93 1:17 2:16
16:54 18.78 20:03 40.62 45.84 48.71 16.62 22.77 24.94 5.3 216.4 230.27 308.34 308.34 308.34 5.73 22.8 230.27
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Sheet 27
Scenario I 128.99 153.38 Scenario II
163.91 30.84 32.34 82.02 587.73 587.73 587.73 630.54 628.51 628.51 13.8 16:52 18:32 23.84 282.12 268.15 386.69 377.06 379.18 396.53 297.69 367.71 277.38 142.86 163.96
28 Scenario III 29 Scenario IV 30 Winners 31 Scenario II 32 Scenario III 33 Scenario IV 34 35 36 Scenario III 37 Scenario IV 38 Cape 39 Scenario II 40 4.86 8:05 8:44 Scenario I 1146.8 1146.8 1148.9 5 5 1 2.4 2.93 3:18 1046.3 1046.3 1046.3 1 1 1 Central Sekotong Scenario I Scenario II 230.8 16.73 18.7 Scenario I
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Scenario III 41 Scenario IV 42 Lombok 43 Tengah 44 Scenario III 45 Scenario IV 46 47 48 Scenario III 49 Scenario IV 50 Praya East 51 Scenario II 52 Scenario III 53 Scenario IV 54 Pujut 55 Scenario I Scenario I Praya Barat Daya Scenario I Scenario II West Praya Scenario I Scenario II
114.1 126.66
135.01 361.25
303.64 347.89 23:41 28.35 30.03 14:48 14.97 16:18 93.62 105.38 257.35 252.17 257.35 12:15 14:35 15:19 6:28 6:28 6.67 112.25
20.72 22.99 23.98 81.74 92.43 95.33 5:35 44.2 47.39
18.73 18.73 18.73 203.38 190.96 190.96 71.32 71.32 71.32 95.57 199.71 237.94
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Scenario II 56 Scenario III 57 Scenario IV 58 East 59 Lombok 60 Scenario III 61 Scenario IV 62 Keruak 63 Scenario II 64 Scenario III 65 Scenario IV 66 Labuan Haji 67 Scenario II 68 Scenario III 69 Scenario IV Scenario I 121.2 128.42 6:15 6.77 Scenario I Jerowaru Scenario I 376.36 Scenario II 183.95 221.96 1117 1117 646.97 654.26 440.34 440.34 122.86 122.86
127.02 440.34 672.38 464.9 523.28 246.2 1117
1165.7 1172.3 1180.0 4 2 6:06 7.85 8.69 7:36 131.15
81.93 82.82 82.93 24.99 26.26 27 16.72 17:19 17.65 27.86 30.62 34.81 75.64 82.25 96.82
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70 Pringgabaya 71 Scenario II 72 Scenario III 73 Scenario IV 74 East Sakra 75 Scenario II 76 Scenario III 77 Scenario IV 78 Sambelia 79 Scenario II 80 Scenario III 81 Scenario IV 82 Sembalun 83 Scenario I 1078.6 1232.5 1267.1 8 8 0:45 0:46 0:47 102.19 124.82 124.82 41.05 43.24 51.8 Scenario I 92.3 95.09 96.81 48.37 53.26 56.16 15.81 18.1 18.89 6.6 7:22 7:37 Scenario I 109.31 132.86 6.6 7:28 7.76 140.79 26.24 28.77 29.97 21:03 21:46 21.63 Scenario I 21:33 21.66 21.73
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Scenario II 84 Scenario III 85 Scenario IV 86 Mataram 87 Scenario II 88 Scenario III 89 Scenario IV 90 mataram 91 Scenario IV Ampenan Scenario I
0.81 1.76
0.83 2.1
0.84 2:26
11:42 12:53 12.69 85.32 108.74 20.85 21:15 75.81 471.71 444.82 471.71 557.9 557.9 557.9 5:58 8:26 8.93 118.16
APPENDIX II SUSCEPTIBILITY AND WEIGHTING Table L.II.1 Type Class Land use and Land Use and Vulnerability to weighted Lombok Island Region Land Use Type No 1 Airport 2 Settlements 8016.51 3 Plantation Agricultural Cultivation 2 0.3 Area (Ha) 32.96 Land Use Based on the level of vulnerability Regions of Settlement and Infrastructure Important
Rankin Weigh g t 1 0.4
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72262. 46 4 Dryland Agriculture 5 Mixed Dryland Agriculture 6 Rice 43210. 91 7 Rawa 8 Pond 9 Body Water 2319.31 Dryland Forest Non-Forest Areas and 10 Primary 69762. Cultivation 59 Secondary 11 Dryland Forest Forest 12 Protection Mangrove 13 Forest Primary 52553. 52 1610.99 1190.78 4 0.1 177.40 Aquatic Ecosystems 863.75 3 0.2 29744. 66 65445. 75
Secondary 14 Mangrove Forest 1887.01 Forest 15 Plantation 1838.79
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Open Land 16 Savana 17 Bush / 18 Kingfisher Clearing 19 3303.37 15004. 32 84598. 02 3024.78
Table L.II.2 weight density level Lombok Island No Population Density 1 2 3 4 5 <4 5 to 8 9 to 16 16 to 32 > 32 Ranking Weight 1 2 3 4 5 0:07 0:13 0.2 0:27 0:33
Table L.II.3 vulnerability weight class and height (elevation) and Luasannya Lombok Island No Elevation class (m) Ranking Weight Area (Ha)
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1 2 3 4 5
0 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 5 >5
1 2 3 4 5
0:33 0:27 0.2 0:13 0:07
1045.5 1457.4 2119.5 4362.2 447863.3
Table L.II.4 weight class and slope and vulnerability Luasannya Lombok Island No 1 2 3 4 5 Slope (%) 0 to 8 8 to 15 15 to 25 25 to 40 > 40 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 Weight 0:33 0:27 0:20 0:13 0:07 Area (Ha) 7811.60 36039.38 41764.76 44158.74 327073.38
Table L.II.5 Percentage Weighting Family prosperous and less prosperous island of Lombok
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No Ketidaksejahteraan (%) Ranking Weight 1 2 3 4 5 <50 50 to 60 60 to 70 70 to 80 > 80 1 2 3 4 5 0:07 0:13 0.2 0:27 0:33
Table L.II.6 Susceptibility Weighted parameters with no account of the welfare level of Lombok Island Dd D Inf E Sl Weight Weig Normalization ht 11:00 0:31 1:0 1:0 2:0 3:0 4:0 0 0 0 0 0 Density Population (d) Important Infrastructure and Social Amenities (Inf) Elevation (E) 0:3 0:3 0:5 1:0 2:0 3 3 0 0 0 Slope (Sl) 0:2 0:2 0:3 0:5 1:0 5 5 3 0 0 2:33 0:07 1:0 1:0 2:0 3:0 4:0 0 0 0 0 0 7:00 0:5 0:5 1:0 2:0 3:0 0 0 0 0 0 4:17 0:12 0:20 11:00 0:31
Land Use Type (date)
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Total
35.50 1:00
Table L.II.7 Weighted parameters of the level of vulnerability to welfare Lombok Island Dd D Inf E Sl KS Weight Weig Normalization ht 16:00 0:28 1:0 1:0 2:0 3:0 4:0 5:0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Population Density (d) 1:0 1:0 2:0 3:0 4:0 5:0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Important Infrastructure and Social Amenities (Inf) Elevation (E) 0:3 0:3 0:5 1:0 2:0 3:0 3 3 0 0 0 0 Slope (Sl) 0:2 0:2 0:3 0:5 1:0 2:0 5 5 3 0 0 0 Level of Population Welfare (KS) Total 2:48 0:2 0:2 0:2 0:3 0:5 1:0 0 0 5 3 0 0 56.98 1:00 0:04 4:33 0:08 11:00 0:19 0:5 0:5 1:0 2:0 3:0 4:0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7:17 0:13 16:00 0:28
Land Use Type (date)
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Table L.II.8 Type Land use and Land Use Vulnerability Classes City of Mataram and surrounding areas Land Use Type N o 1 Airport 2 Settlements 3 Plantation 4 Dryland Agriculture 5 Mixed Dryland Agriculture 6 Rice 7 Rawa 8 Pond 9 Body Water Dryland Forest 10 Primary Secondary Dryland 11 Forest Forest Protection 12 Mangrove Forest 13 Primary Secondary 14 Mangrove Forest Non-Forest Areas and Cultivation 4 0.1 Aquatic Ecosystems 3 0.2 Agricultural Cultivation 2 0.3 Land Use Based on the level of vulnerability Rankin Weigh g t Regions of Settlement and Infrastructure Important 1 0.4
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Forest Plantation 15 Open Land 16 Savana 17 Bush / Kingfisher 18 Clearing 19
Table L.II.9 weight density levels and Sekitarnya Mataram No Population Density 1 2 3 4 5 <4 5 to 8 9 to 16 16 to 32 > 32 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 Weight 0:07 0:13 0.2 0:27 0:33
Table L.II.10 vulnerability weight class and height (elevation) City of Mataram and Surrounding Areas No Elevation class (m) 1 0 to 1 Ranking 1 Weight 0:33
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2 3 4 5
1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 5 >5
2 3 4 5
0:27 0.2 0:13 0:07
Table L.II.11 weight class and slope vulnerability City of Mataram and Surrounding Areas No 1 2 3 3 4 Slope (%) 0 to 8 8 to 15 15 to 25 25 to 40 > 40 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 Weight 0:33 0:27 0:20 0:13 0:07
Table L.II.12 Percentage Weighting Family prosperous and less prosperous city of Mataram and surrounding areas No 1 2 3 4 Prosperous (%) <50 50 to 60 60 to 70 70 to 80 Ranking 1 2 3 4 Weight 0:07 0:13 0.2 0:27
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> 80
0:33
Table L.II.13 Level Vulnerability and The area per district in all of Coastal Area Lombok Island District No Sub Vulnerabilit y Level Area (Ha) Scenarios Scenario with welfare without welfare 2880.48 663.17 503.53 485.56 142.1 3383.6 430.1 460.48 393.03 7.62
1 2 3 4 5
West Lombok
Batu Layar Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Bayan Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable
6 7 8 9
13592.14 7371.48 5436.79 1728.58
15978.9 8475.94 3674.15 336
DRAFT do not quote
10 Ganga 11 12 13 14 15 Gerung 16 17 18 19 20 Gunung sari
Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
336
13345.02 3959.67 2046.51 373.23 117.64
9640.59 5709.5 3251.05 1123.29 117.64
907 1556.58 1644.58 1259.65 244.44
907 1556.58 2658.14 401.22 89.31
5247.31 681.12 582.14
5574.75 598.75 529.31
21 22 23
DRAFT do not quote
24 25 Kayangan 26 27 28 29 30 Kediri 31 32 33 34
Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Kuripan
653.69 736.68
913.59 284.54
5493.22 2917.56 3479.2 1166.78 202.62
4224.25 1454.12 4773.47 2598.48 209.03
1:07 436.48 647.41 518.52 649.67 567.66 1033.68 440.57 209.1
35 36
Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable
395.43 248.69
522.77 226.52
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Vulnerable 37 38 39 Labuapi 40 41 42 43 Lembar 44 45 46 47 48 Lingsar 49 50 Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
580.16 769.06 414.94
1103.84 417.69 137.45
103.23 600.46 387.65 1605.83
133.46 957.89 1242.13 363.7
3394.66 2114.3 1551.08 177.03 6:39
3394.66 2114.3 1553.23 174.88 6:39
7665.99 2042.35 9237.39
DRAFT do not quote
Vulnerable 51 52 53 Narmada 54 55 56 57 58 Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Pemenang Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable 61 62 63 Central Sekotong Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
1471.94 699.8 4:18
1239.37 1403.33 4:18
5901.6 4811.81 2337.74 923.39 56.03
2561.53 6489.22 3964.76 959.03 56.03
5810.73 926.37 562.95 229.49 90.57
5810.73 926.37 577.53 273.96 31.52
59 60
30421.69
25424.97
64
DRAFT do not quote
65 66 67 Tanjung 68 69 70 71 72 Lombok 73 Tengah 74 75 76
Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Batukliang Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once North Less Batukliang Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable
3194.61 796.96 6:33 10063.59 1475.82 1069.59 433.63 143.23
7670.71 1183.02 140.89
10755.85 1449.79 836.98 143.23
159.49 2936.72 1769.98 145.67
1255.61 2853.57 902.4 0:29
9465.41 4046.57
10150.26 3788.16
77 78
DRAFT do not quote
Vulnerable 79 80 Janapria 81 82 83 84 85 Jonggat 86 87 88 89 Kupang 90 91 92 Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
1880.59 112.71 0:19 592.21 3505.79 2896.89 68.99
1566.86
39.13 3901.09 3054.86 68.99
38.29 3266.06 3293.33 197.54
38.29 4662.6 2085.7 8.63
724.39 486.31 2334.46
724.39 486.31 3165.71
DRAFT do not quote
93 94 Praya 95 96 97 98
Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once West Praya Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
2151.78 333.35
1629.48 24.41
1:24 3059.79 1335.35 1313.21
1:24 3144.51 2049.81 514.03
2998.56 2169.92
4512.01 5311.73
99 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4
6663.47
2745.23
Very Vulnerable Praya Less Barat Daya Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
737.02
4709.65
6439.16
8741.55
7429.93
1799.91
1447.35
DRAFT do not quote
10 5 10 6 10 7 10 8 10 9 11 0 11 1 11 2 11 3 11 4 11 5 Very Vulnerable Pringgarata Less 830.59 196.75 Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Praya East Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable 2383.25 2383.25 Praya Central Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable 65.33 1:39
1:39
12:17
3:14
3427.93
3436.96
128.59
128.59
5:21
63.53
581.97
5289.81
6832.26
2699.94
73.63
73.63
DRAFT do not quote
11 6 11 7 11 8 11 9 12 0 Pujut 12 1 12 2 12 3 12 4 East 12 Lombok 5 12 6 Aikmel
Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable 560.16 560.16
2231.42
2809.46
Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
1350.74
903.35
152.91
22:27
8313.71
12446.16
6502.3
8339.88
8462.56
2895.5
Very Vulnerable Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
402.97
8567.91
1788.66
9359.82
5512.66
3795.76
DRAFT do not quote
12 7 12 8 12 9 Jerowaru 13 0 13 1 13 2 13 3 13 4 Keruak 13 5 13 6 13 7 Very Vulnerable 1133.85 214.96 Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable 90.71 322.39 Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable 1658.22 4371.88
104.71
104.71
6467.58
7674.99
9859.23
2489.93
6541.6
1.97
1.97
37.04
132.23
1819.33
2655.98
DRAFT do not quote
13 8 13 9 14 0 14 1 14 2 Masbagik 14 3 14 4 14 5 14 6 14 7 14 8 Montong Ivory Labuan Haji
Very Vulnerable Once Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
12.95
100.29
100.29
2268.29
3691.56
Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
2544.85
1524.54
442.19
39.23
7.86
1683.07
326.52
Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable
1114.99
2479.39
1110.17
1110.17
913.93
1447.16
698.02
761.69
DRAFT do not quote
Vulnerable 14 9 15 0 15 1 15 2 15 3 15 4 15 5 15 6 15 7 15 8 15 9 Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Pringgasela Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Pringgabay Vulnerable a Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
2016.47
2328.15
1203.46
427.37
136.95
4:46
1604.33
3079.48
1637.7
2949.05
2924.69
2606.61
2468.42
682.27
696.74
14:47
3677.14
3097.2
1202.13
951.64
2569.04
3233.29
DRAFT do not quote
16 0 16 1 Sakra 16 2 16 3 16 4 16 5 16 6 16 7 16 8 16 9 17 0
478.92
645.09
0:58
0:58
486.24
486.24
1760.8
2411.84
Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once West Sakra Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
986.32
387.99
272.04
219.33
247.73
56.4
1781.05
1913.55
Very Vulnerable East Sakra Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
862.66
921.47
44.92
44.92
1476.08
2849.33
DRAFT do not quote
17 1 17 2 Sambelia 17 3 17 4 17 5 17 6 Selong 17 7 17 8 17 9 18 0 Sembalun 18 1
1599.22
250.13
108.69
84.54
16329.12
17534.64
4145.99
4033.68
2770.16
1892.65
Very Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
215.7
1.89
1.89
1098.75
1208.22
Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable
530.79
920.52
840.72
341.52
13815
13815
DRAFT do not quote
18 2 18 3 18 4 Sikur 18 5 18 6 18 7 18 8 18 9 Suela 19 0 19 1 19 2
Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
1685.04
1685.04
680.02
689.26
Very Vulnerable Less Vulnerable Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
44.27
35.03
1154.71
1343.85
542.54
750.61
2089.62
2359.11
1439.77
1015.39
291.07
48.75
7097.92
5898.24
3617.54
3550.94
2894.93
3517.27
DRAFT do not quote
19 3 19 4 19 5 19 6 19 7 19 8 Suralaga 19 9 20 0 20 1 20 2 Terara 20 3
Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once SUKAMULIA Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
321.58
965.52
13:47
13:47
9.65
9.65
673
689.64
488.87
879.4
549.06
141.9
18:05
59.9
877.67
1689.37
Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Less Vulnerable
932.31
1226.71
1204.16
56.22
2:38
2:38
DRAFT do not quote
20 4 20 5 20 6 20 7 Wanasaba 20 8 20 9 21 0 21 1 21 2 Mataram Ampenan 21 3 21 4
Quite Vulnerable Vulnerable
314.16
515.67
2001.05
2615.09
1476.34
760.42
101.45
1.82
5696.43
6760.07
1912.86
1722.25
1593.68
1408.5
Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once
687.85
56.53
56.53
342.99
257.97
1616.87
1701.89
DRAFT do not quote
Vulnerable 21 5 21 6 21 7 mataram 21 8 21 9 Cakranegar a Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once Very Vulnerable Very Vulnerable Once
31.4
31.4
457.51
458.23
1704.46
1703.75
148.13
148.13
1460.06
1460.06
APPENDIX III ANALYSIS RISK LEVEL Table L.III.1 Risk Level per Kecamtan with Various Scenarios District N Regenc o y Risk Area (Ha) Leve With the welfare Without the l of the population welfare of the population 2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 2100 1 West Batu Lombok Layar 2 3 KB CB B 275.7 253.7 251.6 280.5 260.3 258.2 10.1 3.0 16.9 17.0 17.4 18.0 9.0 1.1 28.9 1.5 30.8 1.7
DRAFT do not quote
4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 Ganga Bayan
SB KB CB B SB KB CB
1.9 55.3 5.1 1.2 0.8
3.0 53.5 6.3 1.5 1.1
3.7 51.9 7.7 1.6 1.1 95.2 5.7 111.0 104.2 100.1 46.2 52.4 56.4 56.5 5.4 0.4 54.9 6.8 0.6 54.5 7.2 0.7
105.8 99.1 5.6 5.7
B 1 1 SB 1 2 Growled 1 3 CB 1 4 B 1 5 SB 1 6 Gunung sari KB CB KB
38.7
44.6
48.1
1.0
1.6
1.7
8.1
8.8
9.2
182.5 146.8 136.3 184.7 149.1 138.6
11.0
10.9
9.9
237.7 273.0 283.2
228.3 262.8 272.8 0.5
0.8
1.1
1.1
2.5
4.0
124.8 85.8 10.3 8.8
83.8 9.0
135.1 94.6 40.5
92.9 42.2
DRAFT do not quote
B 1 7 SB 1 8 KB 1 9 2 0 B 2 1 SB 2 2 Labuapi 2 3 CB 2 4 B 2 5 SB 2 6 Lembar 2 7 KB 40.9 46.0 KB 7.7 10.5 Kayangan CB 6.8 45.9
37.4
38.6
3.1
3.7
42.4
40.5
52.6
49.5
47.7
7.3
7.3
16.6
19.0
20.2
12.1
13.1
1.3
1.7
2.1
9.2
9.9
0.3
0.7
0.9
318.6 285.8 278.6 348.0 315.5 308.3
47.8
47.9
216.8 242.9 231.2
180.9 202.8 195.8 15.2
19.0
37.1
49.9
64.0
6.3
9.0
9.7
712.1 647.0 629.4 715.9 652.9 635.8
DRAFT do not quote
CB 2 8 B 2 9 SB 3 0 KB 3 1 3 2 B 3 3 SB 3 4 KB 3 5 3 6 B 3 7 SB 3 8 Sekotong Tengah CB Pemenan g CB
371.7 373.0 324.7 616.3 654.9 659.0
245.9 285.4 338.3 128.0 152.3 165.4
130.4 154.7 167.8
449.5 407.4 386.5 486.1 453.1 435.5
154.8 181.4 193.7 212.2 242.3 254.4
79.2
90.0
92.8
11.6
14.2
19.5
26.8
31.5
37.4
0.4
0.7
0.9
1234. 1107. 1059. 2008. 1896. 1762.0 1 8 8 4 1 961.1 988.4 897.6 667.4 766.1 894.3
224.8 253.3 347.2 56.1
69.7
75.5
311.9 382.3 427.2
DRAFT do not quote
Tanjung 3 9
KB
386.8 370.6 361.6 391.0 375.1 366.7
CB 4 0 B 4 1 SB 4 2 Lombok West 4 Tengah Praya 3 4 4 B 4 5 SB 4 6 4 7 4 8 B 4 9 Praya Barat Daya KB KB
71.3
77.9
83.6
114.4 129.4 137.5
45.6
54.1
57.0
2.5
3.4
3.7
4.1
5.3
5.7
283.9 267.2 257.6 289.2 272.8 263.4
CB
84.9
95.7
102.7 102.0 113.8 121.4
16.9
17.8
17.6
18.5
23.1
24.9
24.0
29.1
31.7
102.4 98.0
95.8
122.7 120.5 119.3
CB
20.5
22.8
23.8
18.5
20.6
21.9
6.1
6.1
6.5
DRAFT do not quote
SB 5 0 5 1 5 2 B 5 3 SB 5 4 Pujut 5 5 CB 5 6 B 5 7 SB 5 8 East Jerowaru KB 5 Lombok 9 CB 6 0 KB Praya East KB
12.1
14.3
15.1
96.6
86.3
71.3
96.6
86.3
71.3
CB
0.6
0.6
0.6
238.7 207.9 219.5
193.6 190.3 202.8 5.5
46.6
50.0
50.0
63.5
66.1
742.0 692.9 673.6 765.4 720.2 702.4
494.9 445.1 422.3 605.6 547.3 527.3
120.9 115.7 119.6 76.6
180.1 217.9
89.8
193.9 232.2
1374. 1241. 1187. 2163. 2023. 1949.7 7 4 8 5 3 770.1 884.8 939.6 1114. 1121. 1094. 1 9 3
DRAFT do not quote
B 6 1 SB 6 2 Keruak 6 3 CB 6 4 B 6 5 SB 6 6 6 7 6 8 B 6 9 SB 7 0 7 1 Pringga baya KB Labuan Haji KB KB
175.5 212.7 234.4 94.2
119.6 138.4
364.6 452.8 512.3 1.0
1.1
1.1
96.7
87.1
82.9
96.7
87.1
82.9
6.4
7.5
8.0
127.3 135.1 138.5
116.7 122.9 125.3 6.1
7.9
8.8
10.3
12.7
13.9
105.3 100.8 95.5
105.3 100.8 95.5
CB
6.9
7.2
7.3
42.4
45.6
50.2
20.5
22.9
27.0
24.3
25.6
26.3
39.3
41.1
42.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
138.7 135.7 134.4 139.2 136.3 135.0
DRAFT do not quote
CB 7 2 B 7 3 SB 7 4 7 5 7 6 B 7 7 SB 7 8 Sambelia KB 7 9 CB 8 0 B 8 1 SB 8 2 East Sakra KB
17.3
19.3
20.1
35.6
38.3
39.5
13.6
14.2
14.5
20.1
20.4
20.4
26.1
26.5
26.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
61.2
57.6
56.2
61.2
57.6
56.2
CB
1.5
1.6
1.7
22.4
25.3
26.3
14.3
16.5
17.2
6.6
7.3
7.8
13.2
14.5
15.1
1299. 1269. 1261. 1351. 1334. 1322.3 1 5 9 1 7 96.2 120.0 117.4 139.4 155.0 167.1
35.1
38.0
46.4
30.9
31.7
32.0
91.0
94.0
95.7
DRAFT do not quote
KB 8 3 8 4 B 8 5 SB 8 6 KB 8 Matara 7 m 8 8 B 8 9 SB 9 0 Mataram KB 9 1 CB 9 2 Ampenan CB Sembalun CB
13.2
12.9
12.7
13.6
13.3
13.1
1.8
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.8
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.8
0.8
150.3 61.0
42.0
557.4 450.2 429.3
522.3 514.7 515.9 533.6 614.0 570.0
104.7 122.8 95.4
73.5
84.8
143.7
446.3 525.1 570.3 59.1
74.7
80.6
3.8
1.2
0.6
8.9
8.7
8.6
5.1
7.7
8.3
0.0
0.2
0.3
Note: KB = Less Risky, CB = Quite Risky, B: Risk, SB = Very Risky
DRAFT do not quote
DRAFT do not quote
APPENDIX IV POTENTIAL IMPACT ON BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE CITY OF MATARAM AND SURROUNDING AREA Table L.IV.1 Sub-District of Ampenan Infrastructure unit 2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 2100 Way Historic Buildings unit Church unit Bridge unit Police Station unit ------1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 8 9 9 15 19 19 ------1 1 1 4 4 4 km 1:15 1.72 1.95 1:56 2:44 4:04 19.70 23.76 24.79 67.48 72.93 74.32 ----------1 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 2100
DRAFT do not quote
Head Office unit Office of village unit Post Office unit Kantor Telkom unit Hindu cemetery unit Christian graves unit Islamic cemetery unit Tower Suar unit Mosque unit PLTD
-----------
-----------
-----------
--------1 --
--------1 --
--------2 --
----1 1 --6 1
----1 1 --7 1
----1 1 --7 1
1 3 1 1 5 1 3 2 18 2
1 3 1 1 5 3 3 2 20 2
1 3 1 1 5 3 5 2 20 2
DRAFT do not quote
unit Market unit Pura unit Community Health -Center / Hospital unit School unit Pertamina tanker unit ---------8 8 8 ----------2 -2 -2 -3 5 21 5 22 5 22 -------1 1 5 5 5 -------1 1 3 3 3
Table L.IV.2 Sub-District of Batu Layar Infrastructure unit 2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 Way km -------0.4 0.5 7.8 9.9 10.3 Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 2100
DRAFT do not quote
Bridge unit Office of village Islamic cemetery Tower Suar unit Mosque unit
--unit -unit ---
-------
-------
-------
-------
-------
-------
-------
-------
2 1 1 1 2 1
2 2 2 1 4 1
2 2 1 1 4 1
Community -Health Center / unit Hospital School unit Gas Station unit ---
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
2 1
2 1
3 1
Table L.IV.3 Sub-District of GERUNG
DRAFT do not quote
unit Scenario 1 Infrastruct ure Way Mosque School km
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 2100 -------------------0.4 --0.5 1 -7.8 2 1 9.9 2 1 10.3 2 1
unit -unit --
Table L.IV.4 Sub-District of Gunung Sari Scenario 1 Infrastructu uni 2030 re t 2080 ------Scenario 2 2100 2030 2080 210 0 ------Scenario 3 2030 2080 210 203 208 2100 0 0 0 0.4 -0.5 7.8 -2 9.9 10.3 5 6 Scenario 4
Way km Bridge uni
---
DRAFT do not quote
t Mosque uni t ----------1 1
Table L.IV.5 Sub-District of Labuan Api Infrastructure uni t Scenario 1 2080 203 0 0:22 km 0:19 School uni t Bridge uni t ---------1 3 4 ------0:22 2100 2030 2080 2100 203 208 210 203 208 2100 0 0 0 0 0 0:21 0:24 0:27 5:2 6:4 6.6 15:4 16:2 16:5 7 8 8 1 9 6 -1 1 3 3 3 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Way
DRAFT do not quote
Office of village uni t Mosque uni t Community Health Center / Hospital
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
-uni t
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Table L.IV.6 Sub-District of Lembar Infrastructure unit 2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 2100 Way Kantor Telkom unit Mosque ------4 7 7 7 11 11 km 0.63 0.81 0.82 1:11 1:23 1.80 13.81 16:45 17:34 39.41 42.80 44.14 -------1 1 1 1 1 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 2100
DRAFT do not quote
unit Pura unit Community Health Center -/ Hospital unit School unit Bridge unit Office of village unit Islamic cemetery unit Market unit ---------1 1 1 ---------1 1 1 ---------1 1 1 ---------1 4 4 -----------1 2 1 2 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 6 ------2 2 2 2 2 2
Table L.IV.7 Sub-District of Mataram unit Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
DRAFT do not quote
Infrastruct ure Way km
2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 2100 2030 2080 2100 ---------0:00 0:23 0:23

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