THE ARTHEMETICS OF INDIAN POPULATION. N.

Sasidhar Many under developed and developing countries are undergoing early or middle phase of demographic transition. Demographic transition is the change that countries undergo through when they progress from a population with short lives and large families to one in which people tend to live longer lives and raise small families. The countries, which are in the early demographic transition, are highly vulnerable to ethnic wars, insurgency and terrorism. Population Pyramids of all countries from 1950 to 2050 are available at http://populationpyramid.net. Demographic transition phase of a community or linguistic group or religious group can also be established from its age group structure. Demographic transition also leads to cultural changes, which are akin to matriarch societies. These features are clearly evident in developed countries where demographic transition is in final stages. Child bearing /marriage and sex are separate issues in developed countries where demographic transition is in final phase. The cultural, political, human resources, economical problems/status of a country, religion, linguistic group, ethnic group, cast, etc can be known realistically by analyzing its demographic transition. Population growth parameters: The population of India is nearly1029 millions in the year 2001 as per the census data. The sex ratio is 933 with 532.2 million males and 496.5 million females. 50% of the population is below 24.4 years age (median age). The present population and the number of females in productive age group are very high for a country like India, which is home for 16% of world population with only 2.5% of total land area. Unless population control is not adopted very well, the overpopulation will lead to menacing situation such as perennial poverty, violent political unrests and subsistence lively hoods. Generally, the measures taken to control the population growth will yield results after a generation (20 to 30 years) gap/period. The future population depends mainly on the following parameters. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Death of females before child bearing / pregnancy, Average child bearing age of the females, Number of children born per female, Ratio of female children to total children born. Life expectancy of the population.

Death of females before child bearing: The deaths of females before five years age and also at the time of pregnancy are main reasons contributing to this factor. This factor would drastically reduce due to better availability of medical facilities in future. Average child bearing age of the females: It is presently around 20 years, which will increase gradually with females economic independence. Large female population is under this age group. Its enhancement is one of the main factors in population control by delaying future additions to the population. Number of children born per female: The present female fertility rate is 2.85 children born per woman, which is very high. Highly developed countries achieved this parameter to less than 1. With the improvement in living standards and female empowerment, this parameter can reach gradually at par with developed nations. Ratio of female children out of total children born: In the reproduction process of human beings, female is the week link. Theoretically, a male can fertilize very large number of female eggs subject to availability of female eggs. On an average, few in trillion male sperm cells produced would get chance to participate in giving birth to a child. Whereas a female can produce maximum 500 eggs only in her life span. If the population has large number of prospective childbearing females, it would lead to faster growth in population. Life expectancy of the population: Present life expectancy at birth is nearly 64 years. With the availability of safer working & living environment and better medical facilities, the life expectancy will improve further. Many developed countries has achieved nearer to 80 years age. Due to innovations and advancements in medical / life sciences, the growth rate in life expectancy will not be less than what has been achieved in the past 60

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years. It would not be surprising to forecast that many of the present children in the age group 0-9 years will be celebrating 100 years birthday. Population Load: Population load is the sum of human-years of living population in a particular period. The following example illustrates how many male babies are equivalent to one female baby in terms of population load. Case # 1: A couple gives birth to one female child. One pair of boy and girl children is born to each female descendant. Four generations of this family is considered with 80 years life expectancy. When the fifth generation children are born the first generation people will die. The family tree is shown in Figure - 3. The total human years are 340 in 80 years period (four generations time span). Case # 2: A couple gives birth to three male children. These male descendants cannot give birth to further children. The first couple will die at the age of 80 years. The family tree is shown in Figure - 3. The total human years are 340 in 80 years period (four generations time span) similar to Case # 1. From the above analogy, three (3) male children or one (1) female child born in the first generation is contributing equally in the perspective of future population growth. Conclusion: It is an undisputed fact that world cannot sustain future population if its growth is continuing at present rate. Every natural resource would be in shortage at one point of time in future. Ever increasing human consumption of energy resources is the fundamental reason for global warming or green house effect. Rapid global warming will lead to lesser land area and rapid changes in the environment. Presently, the total land based population of wild animals whose weight is more than 20 kgs, is less than 1% of human population. Already human beings and its domesticated animals / cattle are threatening the survival of wild animals. The increasing usage of available land by humans will also lead to irretrievable ecological disaster wiping out many species from the earth. Ultimately, long survival of human race will also be uncertain in an unsustainable earths biological cycle. In these ominous future circumstances caused by over population, the utility of available surface resources may not be sufficiently productive. It will force many countries to undergo new cycle of violent demographic transition to adjust to the diminished global resources. The main obstacles in achieving population growth control are the age-old cultural and religious practices of people in all societies. The planners and governments have been spear heading population control program against the deep-rooted mindset of people with very slow progress. In olden days, success or golden era of any community or nationality is derived from its shear strength of numbers. During the wars the females belonging to the defeated side, are usurped by the victors and were used in reproductive process as means to increase their numerical strength. This was achieved by rampant polygamy and subjugation of women. Females are its backbone of long prosperity in any nationality/ family though it may apparently appear other way. In addition, they used to crave for more male children, as they were useful for military and defense requirements. So, people continued to prefer male children under the influence of age old cultural / religious beliefs. Policy makers and governments need to take full advantage of traditional beliefs of people without falling pray to modern dogma in population control policy. This essay was first written in the year 2007and subsequently updated References:
Population Pyramids of the World: 1950-2050 http://populationpyramid.net

How demographic transition reduces countries vulnerability to civil conflict: Fact sheet - Population International: www.populationaction.org/Publications/Fact_Sheets/FS23/English_version.pdf A spreadsheet program for estimating future population of India.

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https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B35UMaNaVecMWFiODI4ZjAtNjZkNy00ZWI0LTgzYTUtODJhM2YzM2M1OTBk&hl=en_US .

Figure - 1
First Generation. Second Generation. 2x80=160 1x60=60 M+F F

Third Generation.

2x40=80

Fourth Generation.

2x20=40

Fifth Generation.

2x0=0

F CASE # 1

Population Load (CASE #1): 340

First Generation.

2x80=160

M+F

Second Generation.

3x60=180

M CASE # 2

Population Load (CASE #2): 340 F Female; M Male

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