Académique Documents
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1
Prior Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
20.0%
70.0%
19%
0.320%
1.8%
39.0%
5.42%
20.0%
69.8%
19.50%
0.320%
1.8%
39.0%
5.23%
21.0%
69.8%
19.50%
0.325%
1.8%
39.0%
5.23%
21.0%
69.8%
20%
0.330%
1.9%
39.0%
4.86%
22.0%
69.7%
21%
0.330%
1.9%
39.0%
4.31%
22.0%
69.7%
21.50%
0.335%
2.0%
39.0%
3.94%
22.0%
69.5%
21.50%
0.345%
2.0%
39.0%
4.06%
18.0%
69.5%
22.50%
0.345%
2.0%
39.0%
3.45%
18.0%
69.5%
23%
0.350%
2.0%
39.0%
3.14%
28.0%
11.0%
42.0%
1.1%
14.6%
26.0%
10.5%
41.0%
1.1%
14.6%
24.0%
10.0%
40.0%
1.1%
14.6%
24.0%
9.5%
35.0%
1.1%
14.6%
24.0%
9.0%
34.0%
1.1%
14.6%
24.0%
9.0%
34.0%
1.1%
14.6%
24.0%
9.0%
34.0%
1.1%
14.6%
24.0%
9.0%
34.0%
1.1%
14.6%
24.0%
9.0%
34.0%
1.1%
14.6%
Terminal
2011 Year
10.5%
17.0%
69.0%
69.5%
23.0%
23%
0.4%
0.350%
2.0%
2.0%
39.0%
39.0%
3.1%
3.14%
24.0%
24.0%
9.0%
9.0%
34.0%
34.0%
1.1%
1.1%
14.6%
14.6%
367,649
19,915
638
19,276
19,276
441,179
23,090
700
22,391
22,391
533,826
27,923
770
27,154
27,154
645,930
31,403
803
30,600
30,600
788,034
33,986
937
33,048
33,048
961,402
37,914
1,143
36,771
36,771
1,172,910
47,615
1,395
46,220
46,220
1,384,034
47,743
1,646
46,097
46,097
1,633,160
51,306
1,942
49,363
49,363
1,910,797 2,111,430
60,028
66,299
2,273
2,511
57,755
63,788
57,755
63,788
102,942
40,441
143,383
114,706
46,324
161,030
128,118
53,383
181,501
155,023
61,363
216,386
189,128
70,923
260,051
230,736
86,526
317,262
281,498
105,562
387,060
332,168
124,563
456,731
391,958
146,984
538,943
458,591
171,972
630,563
506,743
190,029
696,772
Net debt
+ Preferrence shares
Opening equity
= Net capital (beginning)
60,221
77,618
143,383
66,022
95,008
161,030
72,600
108,901
181,501
75,735
140,651
216,386
88,417
171,634
260,051
107,869
209,393
317,262
131,600
255,460
387,060
155,289
301,443
456,731
183,241
355,702
538,943
214,391
416,172
630,563
236,902
459,870
696,772
+ Profit
- Div.Distributions
+/- Equity issues
+ = Closing equity
= Net capital (closing)
19,276
(11,332)
3,901
95,008
161,030
22,391
(13,871)
5,373
108,901
181,501
27,154
(15,899)
20,497
140,651
216,386
30,600
(20,535)
20,917
171,634
260,051
33,048
(25,059)
29,770
209,393
317,262
36,771
(30,571)
39,867
255,460
387,060
46,220
(37,297)
37,060
301,443
456,731
46,097
(44,011)
52,173
355,702
538,943
49,363
(51,933)
63,039
416,172
630,563
57,755
(60,761)
46,704
459,870
696,772
63,788
(67,141)
51,640
508,156
769,933
13.9%
24.8%
8.0%
22.4%
2.6
14.3%
23.6%
12.3%
14.6%
2.7
15.4%
24.9%
12.7%
29.2%
2.9
14.5%
21.8%
19.2%
22.0%
3.0
13.1%
19.3%
20.2%
22.0%
3.0
12.0%
17.6%
22.0%
22.0%
3.0
12.3%
18.1%
22.0%
18.0%
3.0
10.5%
15.3%
18.0%
18.0%
3.0
9.5%
13.9%
18.0%
17.0%
3.0
9.5%
13.9%
17.0%
10.5%
3.0
9.5%
13.9%
10.5%
10.5%
3.0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
19,276
(11,765)
(5,882)
5,801
22,391
(13,412)
(7,059)
6,578
27,154
(26,905)
(7,981)
3,135
30,600
(34,105)
(9,560)
12,682
33,048
(41,608)
(15,603)
19,452
36,771
(50,762)
(19,036)
23,731
46,220
(50,670)
(19,001)
23,688
46,097
(59,790)
(22,421)
27,952
49,363
(66,633)
(24,987)
31,151
57,755
(48,152)
(18,057)
22,511
14.6%
Table 8-4
Income Statement
Sales
- Net operating profit after tax
- Net interest expense after tax
= Net Income
- Preferred dividends
= Net income to common
Beginning Balance Sheet
Beg. Net working capital
+ Beg. Net long-term assets
= Net operating assets
306,374
132,805
2,859
77,618
Ratios
Operating return on assets
Return on equity
Book value of assets growth
Book value of equity growth
Net operating asset turnover
Prior Year
2001
Cash flows
Net Income
- Change in net working capital
- Change in net long-term assets
+ Change in net debt
Terminal
Year
63,788
(53,208)
(19,953)
24,875
7,431
Prior Year
2001
8,498
(4,597)
(382)
(4,711)
(9,296)
237
(8,163)
(11,106)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
19,915
(11,765)
(5,882)
2,268
23,090
(13,412)
(7,059)
2,620
27,923
(26,905)
(7,981)
(6,962)
31,403
(34,105)
(9,560)
(12,262)
33,986
(41,608)
(15,603)
(23,226)
37,914
(50,762)
(19,036)
(31,883)
47,615
(50,670)
(19,001)
(22,056)
47,743
(59,790)
(22,421)
(34,469)
51,306
(66,633)
(24,987)
(40,315)
14,057
15,501
Terminal
2011
Year
60,028
(48,152)
(18,057)
(6,181)
66,299
(53,208)
(19,953)
(6,862)
Table 8-5
Equity Valuation
Abnormal earnings
Abnormal ROE
Free cash flows to equity
9,931
12.8%
7,431
10,952
11.5%
8,498
14,042
12.9%
(4,597)
13,666
9.7%
(382)
12,384
7.2%
(4,711)
11,560
5.5%
(9,296)
15,463
6.1%
237
9,803
3.3%
(8,163)
6,537
1.8%
(11,106)
7,648
1.8%
14,057
8,419
1.8%
15,501
Asset Valuation
Abnormal NOPAT
Abnormal operating ROA
Free cash flow to capital
9,264
6.5%
2,268
10,952
6.8%
2,620
14,042
7.7%
(6,962)
13,666
6.3%
(12,262)
12,384
4.8%
(23,226)
11,560
3.6%
(31,883)
15,463
4.0%
(22,056)
9,803
2.1%
(34,469)
6,537
1.2%
(40,315)
7,648
1.2%
(6,181)
8,419
1.2%
(6,862)
Discount factors
Equity (Discounted free cash flow to equity)
Assets
0.8925
0.9309
0.7966
0.8656
0.7110
0.8041
0.6346
0.7432
0.5664
0.6862
0.5055
0.6336
0.4512
0.5850
0.4027
0.5401
0.3595
0.4987
0.3208
0.4604
0.2863
0.4251
1.00
1.00
1.15
1.12
1.48
1.27
1.81
1.51
2.20
1.81
2.69
2.21
3.17
2.70
3.74
3.19
4.38
3.76
4.84
4.40
5.35
4.86
re=
12.04%
42%
58%
41%
59%
40%
60%
35%
65%
34%
66%
34%
66%
34%
66%
34%
66%
34%
66%
34%
66%
34%
66%
1.1%
12.04%
7.43%
1.1%
12.04%
7.54%
1.1%
12.04%
7.65%
1.1%
12.04%
8.20%
1.1%
12.04%
8.31%
1.1%
12.04%
8.31%
1.1%
12.04%
8.31%
1.1%
12.04%
8.31%
1.1%
12.04%
8.31%
1.1%
12.04%
8.31%
1.1%
12.04%
8.31%
10.50%
PV Abn. Earnings
PV Abn. ROE
Scaled Abnormal ROE
PV Scaled Abnormal ROE
PV FCF Equity
8,864
8,864
12.8%
11.4%
6,632
8,724
8,724
13.2%
10.5%
6,770
9,984
9,984
19.1%
13.6%
(3,269)
8,673
8,673
17.6%
11.1%
(243)
7,014
7,014
15.9%
9.0%
(2,668)
5,844
5,844
14.8%
7.5%
(4,699)
6,977
6,977
19.2%
8.7%
107
3,948
3,948
12.2%
4.9%
(3,287)
2,350
2,350
8.0%
2.9%
(3,992)
2,454
2,454
8.9%
2.9%
4,510
2,411
2,411
9.8%
2.8%
4,439
PV Abn. NOPAT
PV Abn. ROA
PV FCF Capital
8,268
8,268
2,111
8,724
8,724
2,268
9,984
9,984
(5,599)
8,673
8,673
(9,113)
7,014
7,014
(15,937)
5,844
5,844
(20,200)
6,977
6,977
(12,902)
3,948
3,948
(18,617)
2,350
2,350
(20,104)
2,454
2,454
(2,846)
2,411
2,411
(2,917)
638
5,801
(5,163)
700
6,578
(5,878)
770
3,135
(2,365)
803
12,682
(11,879)
937
19,452
(18,515)
1,143
23,731
(22,588)
1,395
23,688
(22,293)
1,646
27,952
(26,306)
1,942
31,151
(29,209)
2,273
22,511
(20,239)
(4,806)
(98,772)
(5,088)
(1,902)
(8,829)
(12,704)
(14,311)
(13,041)
(14,208)
(14,566)
(9,318)
Total Value
Equity
317,851
322,799
Value per
Share
8.09
8.21
Growth factors
Equity
Assets
6.00%
5.50%
1.09
39,308.6
Table 8-7
Equity Value
Abnormal Earnings
Free Cash Flows to Equity
Beginning Book
Value
77,618
#N/A
Value of
forecast
period
Terminal Value
64,832
175,401
(140)
322,939