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Table1.

1
Prior Year
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

20.0%
70.0%
19%
0.320%
1.8%
39.0%
5.42%

20.0%
69.8%
19.50%
0.320%
1.8%
39.0%
5.23%

21.0%
69.8%
19.50%
0.325%
1.8%
39.0%
5.23%

21.0%
69.8%
20%
0.330%
1.9%
39.0%
4.86%

22.0%
69.7%
21%
0.330%
1.9%
39.0%
4.31%

22.0%
69.7%
21.50%
0.335%
2.0%
39.0%
3.94%

22.0%
69.5%
21.50%
0.345%
2.0%
39.0%
4.06%

18.0%
69.5%
22.50%
0.345%
2.0%
39.0%
3.45%

18.0%
69.5%
23%
0.350%
2.0%
39.0%
3.14%

28.0%
11.0%
42.0%
1.1%
14.6%

26.0%
10.5%
41.0%
1.1%
14.6%

24.0%
10.0%
40.0%
1.1%
14.6%

24.0%
9.5%
35.0%
1.1%
14.6%

24.0%
9.0%
34.0%
1.1%
14.6%

24.0%
9.0%
34.0%
1.1%
14.6%

24.0%
9.0%
34.0%
1.1%
14.6%

24.0%
9.0%
34.0%
1.1%
14.6%

24.0%
9.0%
34.0%
1.1%
14.6%

Terminal
2011 Year
10.5%
17.0%
69.0%
69.5%
23.0%
23%
0.4%
0.350%
2.0%
2.0%
39.0%
39.0%
3.1%
3.14%
24.0%
24.0%
9.0%
9.0%
34.0%
34.0%
1.1%
1.1%
14.6%
14.6%

367,649
19,915
638
19,276
19,276

441,179
23,090
700
22,391
22,391

533,826
27,923
770
27,154
27,154

645,930
31,403
803
30,600
30,600

788,034
33,986
937
33,048
33,048

961,402
37,914
1,143
36,771
36,771

1,172,910
47,615
1,395
46,220
46,220

1,384,034
47,743
1,646
46,097
46,097

1,633,160
51,306
1,942
49,363
49,363

1,910,797 2,111,430
60,028
66,299
2,273
2,511
57,755
63,788
57,755
63,788

102,942
40,441
143,383

114,706
46,324
161,030

128,118
53,383
181,501

155,023
61,363
216,386

189,128
70,923
260,051

230,736
86,526
317,262

281,498
105,562
387,060

332,168
124,563
456,731

391,958
146,984
538,943

458,591
171,972
630,563

506,743
190,029
696,772

Net debt
+ Preferrence shares
Opening equity
= Net capital (beginning)

60,221
77,618
143,383

66,022
95,008
161,030

72,600
108,901
181,501

75,735
140,651
216,386

88,417
171,634
260,051

107,869
209,393
317,262

131,600
255,460
387,060

155,289
301,443
456,731

183,241
355,702
538,943

214,391
416,172
630,563

236,902
459,870
696,772

+ Profit
- Div.Distributions
+/- Equity issues
+ = Closing equity
= Net capital (closing)

19,276
(11,332)
3,901
95,008
161,030

22,391
(13,871)
5,373
108,901
181,501

27,154
(15,899)
20,497
140,651
216,386

30,600
(20,535)
20,917
171,634
260,051

33,048
(25,059)
29,770
209,393
317,262

36,771
(30,571)
39,867
255,460
387,060

46,220
(37,297)
37,060
301,443
456,731

46,097
(44,011)
52,173
355,702
538,943

49,363
(51,933)
63,039
416,172
630,563

57,755
(60,761)
46,704
459,870
696,772

63,788
(67,141)
51,640
508,156
769,933

13.9%
24.8%
8.0%
22.4%
2.6

14.3%
23.6%
12.3%
14.6%
2.7

15.4%
24.9%
12.7%
29.2%
2.9

14.5%
21.8%
19.2%
22.0%
3.0

13.1%
19.3%
20.2%
22.0%
3.0

12.0%
17.6%
22.0%
22.0%
3.0

12.3%
18.1%
22.0%
18.0%
3.0

10.5%
15.3%
18.0%
18.0%
3.0

9.5%
13.9%
18.0%
17.0%
3.0

9.5%
13.9%
17.0%
10.5%
3.0

9.5%
13.9%
10.5%
10.5%
3.0

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

19,276
(11,765)
(5,882)
5,801

22,391
(13,412)
(7,059)
6,578

27,154
(26,905)
(7,981)
3,135

30,600
(34,105)
(9,560)
12,682

33,048
(41,608)
(15,603)
19,452

36,771
(50,762)
(19,036)
23,731

46,220
(50,670)
(19,001)
23,688

46,097
(59,790)
(22,421)
27,952

49,363
(66,633)
(24,987)
31,151

57,755
(48,152)
(18,057)
22,511

Sales growth rate


COMS/Sales
Selling and Operating Store Expenses/Sales
Pre-Opening Expenses/Sales
General and Admin Expenses/Sales
Effective Tax Rate

Implied NOPAT margin (NOPAT/Sales)


WC to sales
LT assets to sales
Debt ratio
After tax cost of debt
Dividend rate (target on opening eq.)

14.6%

Table 8-4
Income Statement
Sales
- Net operating profit after tax
- Net interest expense after tax
= Net Income
- Preferred dividends
= Net income to common
Beginning Balance Sheet
Beg. Net working capital
+ Beg. Net long-term assets
= Net operating assets

306,374

132,805

2,859
77,618

Ratios
Operating return on assets
Return on equity
Book value of assets growth
Book value of equity growth
Net operating asset turnover
Prior Year
2001
Cash flows
Net Income
- Change in net working capital
- Change in net long-term assets
+ Change in net debt

Terminal
Year
63,788
(53,208)
(19,953)
24,875

= Free cash flow to equity

7,431
Prior Year
2001

Net operating profit after tax


- Change in net working capital
- Change in net long-term assets
= Free cash flow to capital

8,498

(4,597)

(382)

(4,711)

(9,296)

237

(8,163)

(11,106)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

19,915
(11,765)
(5,882)
2,268

23,090
(13,412)
(7,059)
2,620

27,923
(26,905)
(7,981)
(6,962)

31,403
(34,105)
(9,560)
(12,262)

33,986
(41,608)
(15,603)
(23,226)

37,914
(50,762)
(19,036)
(31,883)

47,615
(50,670)
(19,001)
(22,056)

47,743
(59,790)
(22,421)
(34,469)

51,306
(66,633)
(24,987)
(40,315)

14,057

15,501

Terminal
2011
Year
60,028
(48,152)
(18,057)
(6,181)

66,299
(53,208)
(19,953)
(6,862)

Table 8-5
Equity Valuation
Abnormal earnings
Abnormal ROE
Free cash flows to equity

9,931
12.8%
7,431

10,952
11.5%
8,498

14,042
12.9%
(4,597)

13,666
9.7%
(382)

12,384
7.2%
(4,711)

11,560
5.5%
(9,296)

15,463
6.1%
237

9,803
3.3%
(8,163)

6,537
1.8%
(11,106)

7,648
1.8%
14,057

8,419
1.8%
15,501

Asset Valuation
Abnormal NOPAT
Abnormal operating ROA
Free cash flow to capital

9,264
6.5%
2,268

10,952
6.8%
2,620

14,042
7.7%
(6,962)

13,666
6.3%
(12,262)

12,384
4.8%
(23,226)

11,560
3.6%
(31,883)

15,463
4.0%
(22,056)

9,803
2.1%
(34,469)

6,537
1.2%
(40,315)

7,648
1.2%
(6,181)

8,419
1.2%
(6,862)

Discount factors
Equity (Discounted free cash flow to equity)
Assets

0.8925
0.9309

0.7966
0.8656

0.7110
0.8041

0.6346
0.7432

0.5664
0.6862

0.5055
0.6336

0.4512
0.5850

0.4027
0.5401

0.3595
0.4987

0.3208
0.4604

0.2863
0.4251

1.00
1.00

1.15
1.12

1.48
1.27

1.81
1.51

2.20
1.81

2.69
2.21

3.17
2.70

3.74
3.19

4.38
3.76

4.84
4.40

5.35
4.86

re=

12.04%

42%
58%

41%
59%

40%
60%

35%
65%

34%
66%

34%
66%

34%
66%

34%
66%

34%
66%

34%
66%

34%
66%

1.1%
12.04%
7.43%

1.1%
12.04%
7.54%

1.1%
12.04%
7.65%

1.1%
12.04%
8.20%

1.1%
12.04%
8.31%

1.1%
12.04%
8.31%

1.1%
12.04%
8.31%

1.1%
12.04%
8.31%

1.1%
12.04%
8.31%

1.1%
12.04%
8.31%

1.1%
12.04%
8.31%

Sales Growth in Perputity

10.50%

PV Abn. Earnings
PV Abn. ROE
Scaled Abnormal ROE
PV Scaled Abnormal ROE
PV FCF Equity

8,864
8,864
12.8%
11.4%
6,632

8,724
8,724
13.2%
10.5%
6,770

9,984
9,984
19.1%
13.6%
(3,269)

8,673
8,673
17.6%
11.1%
(243)

7,014
7,014
15.9%
9.0%
(2,668)

5,844
5,844
14.8%
7.5%
(4,699)

6,977
6,977
19.2%
8.7%
107

3,948
3,948
12.2%
4.9%
(3,287)

2,350
2,350
8.0%
2.9%
(3,992)

2,454
2,454
8.9%
2.9%
4,510

2,411
2,411
9.8%
2.8%
4,439

PV Abn. NOPAT
PV Abn. ROA
PV FCF Capital

8,268
8,268
2,111

8,724
8,724
2,268

9,984
9,984
(5,599)

8,673
8,673
(9,113)

7,014
7,014
(15,937)

5,844
5,844
(20,200)

6,977
6,977
(12,902)

3,948
3,948
(18,617)

2,350
2,350
(20,104)

2,454
2,454
(2,846)

2,411
2,411
(2,917)

638
5,801
(5,163)

700
6,578
(5,878)

770
3,135
(2,365)

803
12,682
(11,879)

937
19,452
(18,515)

1,143
23,731
(22,588)

1,395
23,688
(22,293)

1,646
27,952
(26,306)

1,942
31,151
(29,209)

2,273
22,511
(20,239)

(4,806)
(98,772)

(5,088)

(1,902)

(8,829)

(12,704)

(14,311)

(13,041)

(14,208)

(14,566)

(9,318)

Total Value
Equity
317,851
322,799

Value per
Share
8.09
8.21

Growth factors
Equity
Assets

Other information & Collated Information


CAPM Assumptions
rm -rf
rf
b
Number of Shares ('000)
Capital structure
% of Debt
% of Equity
Cost of capital
Debt
Equity
WACC
Assumptions:

Net interest expense after tax


Change in net debt
Difference between FCFequity and FCFcapital
PV @ WACC of differences

6.00%
5.50%
1.09
39,308.6

Table 8-7
Equity Value
Abnormal Earnings
Free Cash Flows to Equity

Beginning Book
Value
77,618
#N/A

Value of
forecast
period
Terminal Value
64,832
175,401
(140)
322,939

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