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Jet Airways (India) Ltd.

December 31, 2010


A Qualitative Equity Research Company

Update Report

Better Than Projected Yields & PLF Boost Bottom Line Driven by robust demand and rational capacity addition, the Indian Aviation Industry enjoyed much higher passenger load factors and yields than we had anticipated. Based on the strong demand pressure we are witnessing, we do not see the PLF or the yields coming down much over the next quarter. The cumulative effect of both higher yields & PLF has prompted us to revise our top & bottom line estimates for Jet Airways, with the revised EBITDA & EPS standing at Rs. 2,461.6 Crs and Rs. 44 respectively. We continue to maintain a Strong Buy on the company with a target price of Rs. 1,800 (unchanged). Earning Estimates (INR Crs)
Income Statement Total Income Total Expenditure EBIDTA Depreciation Interest & financial expenses PBT PAT EPS Earlier FY11E 14,513.7 12,310.3 2,203.4 956.6 1,052.2 227.7 165.6 19.2 Revised FY11E 14,832.8 12,371.1 2,461.6 956.6 1,052.2 486.0 377.4 43.7

CMP (INR)*

TARGET (INR)

RATING

714.1 Risk Return Matrix

1,800

Risk

R e tu rn

Market Data*
BSE 532617 NSE JETAIRWAYS BLOOMBERG JETIN IN : : 10 387.71 REUTERS JET.BO

Face Value (INR) Book Value (INR) 52 -week range (INR) M cap (INR Cr) 3-mnth Avg. Daily Vol. Shares Outstanding Equity (Mn) Free Float (%) * As on December 29, 2010

: 926.35 / 395.7 : 6,162.68 : 2,29,774 : : 86.3 20

Shareholding Pattern (%)


D II 10% O th e rs 3%

Fuel Cost Increase Crude prices and subsequently ATF (Aviation Turbine Fuel) have increased a tad faster than we anticipated due to more than normal snowfall & cooler winters over the last few weeks. We estimate an increase of about 0.25% in the YTD average fuel cost for Jet Airways over our base case assumption. Though the ATF price in the domestic market has breached the Rs.45/liter mark, unlike commonly perceived, the average fuel cost for Jet Airways is a lot lower than the average ATF price in the domestic market due to the Jets international business where the ATF price is about 30 33% lower. Further given the favorable industry milieu, especially the strong domestic demand, we do not see increase in ATF cost affecting our valuation or target price for Jet Airways. In fact, even a 5% increase in the average fuel cost for the entire year will bring down earnings only to our earlier assumption.

F II 7%

P ro m o te r 80%

Relative Performance

Analyst: Lovelesh Manocha Anirudh Attal

lovelesh.manocha@ideasfirst.in anirudh.attal@ideasfirst.in

Jet Airways (India) Ltd.


Update Report

Fuel Sensitivity Analysis for Jet Airways

FY11E Impact of each 1% increase Impact of each 1% decrease

EBITDA -1.9% 1.9%

PAT -11.5% 11.5%

EPS -11.5% 11.5%

FY11E (INR Crs) -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% Base Case (Rs./Ltr)* 34.0 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

EBITDA 2700.9 2653.0 2605.2 2557.3 2509.5 2461.6 2413.8 2366.0 2318.1 2270.3 2222.4

% Chg 9.7% 7.8% 5.8% 3.9% 1.9%

PAT 595.1 551.6 508.1 464.5 421.0 377.4

% Chg 57.7% 46.1% 34.6% 23.1% 11.5%

EPS 68.9 63.9 58.8 53.8 48.8 43.7

% Chg 57.7% 46.1% 34.6% 23.1% 11.5%

-1.9% -3.9% -5.8% -7.8% -9.7%

333.9 290.3 246.8 203.3 159.7

-11.5% -23.1% -34.6% -46.1% -57.7%

38.7 33.6 28.6 23.5 18.5

-11.5% -23.1% -34.6% -46.1% -57.7%

FY12E Impact of each 1% increase Impact of each 1% decrease

EBITDA -1.6% 1.6%

PAT -4.2% 4.2%

EPS -4.2% 4.2%

FY12E (INR Crs) -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% Base Case (Rs./Ltr)* 35.5 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

EBITDA 3438.7 3386.6 3334.6 3282.5 3230.4 3178.3 3126.2 3074.2 3022.1 2970.0 2917.9

% Chg 8.2% 6.6% 4.9% 3.3% 1.6%

PAT 1235.0 1192.2 1149.5 1106.7 1064.0 1021.2

% Chg 20.9% 16.7% 12.6% 8.4% 4.2%

EPS 143.0 138.1 133.1 128.2 123.2 118.3

% Chg 20.9% 16.7% 12.6% 8.4% 4.2%

-1.6% -3.3% -4.9% -6.6% -8.2%

978.5 935.7 892.9 850.2 807.4

-4.2% -8.4% -12.6% -16.7% -20.9%

113.3 108.4 103.4 98.5 93.5

-4.2% -8.4% -12.6% -16.7% -20.9%

* Weighted average of domestic & international ATF price estimated for Jet Airways. ATF prices in domestic market are at almost 50% premium to international ATF prices.

December 31, 2010

Jet Airways (India) Ltd.


Update Report

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December 31, 2010

Jet Airways (India) Ltd.


Update Report

December 31, 2010