The Technology Radar

An Instrument of Technology Intelligence and

Innovation Strategy
René Rohrbeck, Jörg Heuer, Heinrich Arnold

IEEE-ICMIT Conference, Singapore

21st – 23rd June 2006
Abstract.
Motivation, approach and conclusions.

ƒ The growing competition in consumer markets is forcing industry to

explore new ways to foster product and service innovations
Motivation ƒ The Deutsche Telekom Laboratories have introduced a tool to foster its
technology intelligence capabilities: The Technology Radar
ƒ This paper is used to share best practices and seeks to advance
research in the field of technology intelligence (TI)

ƒ The presentation of the tool consists of goals, method, some exemplary

findings and its role in technology management
Approach
ƒ The paper closes with lessons learned, key success factors and
recommendations for the introduction of an TI system

ƒ Value created by the Technology Radar consists of …

ƒ…top management attention
Conclusions ƒ…stimulation of innovation
ƒ…direct introduction of external views and impulses
ƒ…fostering of the absorptive capacity

060622_ReR_ICMIT06_TechRadar_Presentation_v0.8.ppt 1
I. Introduction.
Definitions of technology intelligence.

Provision of relevant information on technology and the

evaluation of their impact on the corporation. This information
is then on the one hand used for decision making in R&D and in
corporate strategy; on the other hand it is used to increase the
Technology
Intelligence awareness of the operating units for upcoming opportunities
and risks as well as prepare the receptiveness of the
organization for R&D results. The process consists of
gathering, assessing and communicating technological
opportunities and threats.

060622_ReR_ICMIT06_TechRadar_Presentation_v0.8.ppt 2
II. Goals.
Of the Technology Radar.

ƒ Early identification of technologies, technological trends and

Goals of the technological shocks
Technology ƒ Raising the attention for the threats and opportunities of
Radar technological development
ƒ Stimulation of innovation

060622_ReR_ICMIT06_TechRadar_Presentation_v0.8.ppt 3
III. Method.
Process Overview.

Identification Selection Assessment Dissemination

Innovation
? ?
Strategy
?
? ? !
? ? !
? !
?
CTOs and CMOs
? !
? ? ! ! of SBUs
?
? !
? ?
? ? R&D and
Product Managers

060622_ReR_ICMIT06_TechRadar_Presentation_v0.8.ppt 4
II. Method.
Assessment.

Assessment

Technology Radar

high
2

Market impact
Potential market size
Cost savings 3

Disruptive potential

1
low

DTAG Relevance
High
high low
Technological realization complexity Medium
Low

Complexity
Implementation risk
Cost

060622_ReR_ICMIT06_TechRadar_Presentation_v0.8.ppt 5
III. Method.
Dissemination main document.

Dissemination

Technology Radar Screen Key Message

Net $100 Laptop
Coreork Serv work
ices
Netw
Recent technological advances and efforts to eliminate the existing overhead in
Molecular today’s software designs will bring laptops to price points below $100/unit incl.
Computing
Anti Spam $10 or more contingency/profit. A $ 100 Laptop will have a 500 MHz CPU with
Adapt. Opt. Networks Concepts Network Linux and 1 GB HD, 1 mega-pixel full-color screen with 12’’ diagonal and will be
GENI
Coding WiFi and cell phone-enabled.
DTN
Equip. Ident.
XML Routers SOA
SIP Connect
Innovation: Telecom operators could subsidize laptops, making them
Quantum EPC virtually free, and tying them to service subscriptions (e.g. broadband,
Cryptography UIP cellular, music or video on demand).

End rvice
802.22 WRAN
Ne ccess

Se
rk

Open Source Router Quadruple Play

two

-Us s
AITF Protocol UMA µTCP/IP Storage
Bricks
A

Retinal

er
VoWiMAX VA Search
CR Systems Ad hoc & Mesh
Networks
Carrier-Independent LBS
Display
DRM DSRC
Profile
Embarq Web 2.0
IMS RFID-DRM
Participatory KeyStroke Recog. Place Shifting
Vis. Search Interface
RoF Media DLNA RFID Blocker
PON
Superdistribution
802.11s
802.16 IPTV High Precision. Loc.
Interactive
Explor. Table WiMAX, Wibro VoWLAN
Media RSS
$100 Laptop RSS 2.0 Trusted Computing
MIH
Mobile

Aspect-oriented

Function-
Desktop-2-Go Ajax SW Devel.
De es

Galileo

Cross
M5 Atom 1.0 DReaM
Fixed & ic
v

Web API’s Virtual Directories

Ma esen

Self Config. Stratellites

Pr

al
rke ce

Mobile Dev. SPIT Nano

t

Satellites
M a ad y
Re

IGRS
rke

DTAG Relevance ITop Home

t
Pro ncep
Co

High
du t
Ap sear

ct
Re
plie ch

Medium
Ba sear
Re

d
sic ch

Low Text Bold = new featured Technology Profile

060622_ReR_ICMIT06_TechRadar_Presentation_v0.8.ppt 6
III. Method.
Dissemination add-ons.

Dissemination
Selected Profiles

Q In depth coverage of one specific topic from scouting to feature paper to workshop.
Feature
Definition of Focus Topic

Feature Paper Workshop

Q Based on selected technology profiles an expert workshop is set up in order to discuss recent
Paper trends and innovative developments related to the feature paper.
Focus Topic
Q The outcome of the workshop are scenarios that reflect the experts‘ view in the defined topic.

Semantic
Infrastructure
“meaning”
Q Based on the Silicon Valley Innovation Panel, where T-Labs representatives met with industry
Service
Infrastructure
Virtualization
Utilization
Infrastructure
Innovation leaders, university professors, venture capitalists, start up companies and Silicon Valley
Panel
“source” “sink”

Delivery
visionaries, virtualization has been identified as an overarching trend and is featured in the
Infrastructure
“conduit” Innovation Panel Report.

Derived from selected business, technology, and R&D trends detailed opinion papers are
Opinion Q
created.
Papers Q Opinion papers are created by DTAG experts and reflect the view of DTAG on a certain topic.

Q The Technology Profiles are presented and discussed among the external researchers and
experts. Then the researchers reflect on the profiles and cluster these to larger underlying
Trend
Technology Profiles

trends which are presented in a workshop.

Selection of 8 Key Trends

Workshops
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea Innovation Idea Innovation Idea

These trends are then consolidated into key trends and further defined and shaped with
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea

Innovation Idea Innovation Idea

Clustering
of Trends Q
experts.
Innovation Idea

“Stanford Method“
Workshop

060622_ReR_ICMIT06_TechRadar_Presentation_v0.8.ppt 7
IV. Technological Findings.
Feature paper, opinion paper, trend workshop.

Dissemination

“You should virtualize away technology, so that you can really think about what customers want
Semantic
Infrastructure
“meaning”
rather than what technology can do.”
Service Utilization
“Virtualization” As a framework for the analysis, the impact of technology has been investigated, as well as market and social
reaction to virtualization across the three major ICT infrastructure areas – (1) delivery – comprising networks
Infrastructure Infrastructure
Virtualization

Feature
“source” “sink”

Delivery and technical platforms, (2) service – encompassing specific configurations, processes and underlying IT,
Paper
Infrastructure
“conduit”
and (3) utilization – being made up of terminal devices and user interfaces. These three ‘traditional’
components of value creation at telcos were complemented with a fourth area – semantics – an emerging
set of technologies and trends.
“Intelligent User Interfaces will become for telcos, what product design is for the manufacturing
industry.”
“Intelligent User
Today different forms of communication are defined more often by the interface that is used for establishing
Interface” the communication than by the underlying transport technology. For instance, E-Mail and Instant Messaging
both use the Internet for message transport but mainly vary in user interface. In future NGN dominated
Opinion
worlds, the major remaining form of differentiation between communication services will be the user
Papers interface. What design is for manufactured products, intelligent user interfaces will become for telco
services.

“As the communication becomes a kind of content transfer, the consumer becomes a
prosumer.”
Technology Profiles “Private Content
Communities and social software are on the rise. People always liked to show what they are doing. Now,
Goes Public”
Selection of 8 Key Trends

thanks to current technological development, they can do it on a global level nearly for free. Sharing
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea Innovation Idea Innovation Idea

Innovation Idea Innovation Idea

Trend Workshops personal content in the web is becoming common place: your private photo album, your favourite playlist,
Clustering
of Trends
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea

Innovation Idea

“Stanford Method“
Workshop
your personal views, all in the internet. More and more people share their experiences and opinions using
“long tail content” concepts like blogs and become content producers.

060622_ReR_ICMIT06_TechRadar_Presentation_v0.8.ppt 8
V. Value Created…
…by the Technology Radar.

ƒ Top management attention by…

ƒ…creating a document that “sits on the desks of the CTOs and CMOs
ƒ Stimulation of innovation by…
ƒ…bringing together people and projects throughout the DTAG
Value created ƒ…raising the attention for specific issues
ƒ Direct Introduction of external views and impulses by
ƒ…bringing external information directly to top management
ƒ Fostering the absorptive capacity by
ƒ…enabling the management of large amount of topics at the same time

060622_ReR_ICMIT06_TechRadar_Presentation_v0.8.ppt 9
VI. Lessons learned.
By the Technology Radar introductions.

ƒ Radar Screen is a powerful format for the top aggregation level

ƒ Choose scouts with the ability to see beyond a product or technology
to its hidden opportunities
Best practices ƒ Choose scout with a large relevant, social network
ƒ Portfolio approach for the technology rating is good method for its
intuitive usage
ƒ Define and describe clearly the criteria used for technology rating

Further ƒ Online dissemination with interaction functionalities

development
steps ƒ Enabling the long reach from the reader to the source of information

060622_ReR_ICMIT06_TechRadar_Presentation_v0.8.ppt 10
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