Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: ASEAN Engaging China on the South China Sea Carlyle A. Thayer July 14, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] 1. What do you think is the best way for ASEAN to engage China and resolve overlappingclaimsintheSouthChinaSea? ANSWER: ASEAN is already engaging China through the Joint Working Group to ImplementtheDeclarationonConductofPartiesintheSouthChinaSea(DOC).This group is working to adopt guidelines to implement the DOC. The sticking point is whetherspecificmention shouldbegivenintheguidelinestoASEANmeetingasa groupbeforemeetingwithChina.ASEANneedstoaddhighlevelpressureonChina to move the Working Group along. But the guidelines only concern confidence buildingandothercooperativemeasures. ThebestwaytoengageChinaonresolvingoverlappingclaimsisattheASEANPlus1 meeting.HighlevelleadersneedtopressChinatosetupagrouptoseniorofficials todiscusshowtoapplyinternationallaw,includingtheUNconventiononLawofthe Sea,totheSouthChinaSeadispute.InotherwordsASEANmustworkcooperatively withChinatofindalegalwaytoresolvethisissue. 2. Manila is suggesting to bring the issue before international arbitration, what do you of think of this initiative considering that China is lukewarm to the proposal? ManilaandVietnamhadfoundacommongroundtointernationalizetheterritorial dispute,wouldthishelpresolvetheproblem? ANSWER:ThisisagooddiplomaticployandwilladdpoliticalpressureonChinato bringitsclaimsintolinewithinternationallaw.Butarbitrationrequirestheconsent of both parties and China will not take the risk. It has much to loose to domestic nationalistsifitsclaimsarenotupheldintheirentirely. 3.WhatarethechallengesforthePhilippinestoconvince/persuadeChinatoagree toresolvethedisputebasedonarulesbasedmechanism? ANSWER:ThePhilippinesmustconveytoChinathatthisissuewontgoaway.China willblusterandbullyandtrytointimidatethePhilippines.ThePhilippinesneedsto convince China that the dispute over the South China Sea will not affect bilateral relations but that the Philippines is resolved to settle the matter on the basis of internationallawincludingUNCLOS.

2 The Philippines also needs to work with Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei to forge a unitedfrontonapproachestoChina.Thiscoregroupsoffourneedstogetconsensus within ASEAN about how to approach China. At the moment the most promising approach is the 4+6+1 approach involving the four claimant states, the six ASEAN nonclaimantstatesunderIndonesianleadershipasASEANChair,andChina. 4. What role do you see for U.S. in the dispute is Washington an instigator or a peacefulfacilitator? ANSWER:TheUnitedStateswasneverandisnottheinstigatorofcurrenttensions over the South China Sea. Secretary of State Hillary Clintons intervention at last years ARF meeting was in response to approaches by individual ASEAN members. The U.S. informed ASEAN states in advance and asked for support. Eleven of the ARFs27membersraisedtheirconcerns.Chinahastriedtodeflectattentionfromits assertivebehaviorbyputtingtheblameontheU.S. Shortly after SecretaryClinton made her remarks, Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell clarified that what the ASEAN claimant states want is for the United States to support a process. Theres not a desire for a facilitator, to be perfectly honest.TheUnitedStatessupportaacollaborativediplomaticmechanisminorder tosupportthoseinASEANwhodonotwanttodealwithChinasolelyonabilateral basis.InorderfortheU.S.tobeeffectiveitmustplayalowkeyroleinsupportof ASEANandledsupportinresponsetorequestsbyindividualstates.