Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Outline
1. Context
Recent upturn in pestilence? [the biblical Fourth Horseman]
Emergence and Resurgence
3. Adaptive/Preventive strategies
1. Context
Microbes Making Merry?
Vector-borne 80 Non-vectorborne
60
40
20
1940
1960
1980
2000
tiny animals (animalia quaedam minuta) that cannot be followed by the eye are transferred through the air to other persons and cause serious diseases
Girolamo Fracastoro, Italy, 1546, proposed role of contagious particles in disease transmission
De Contagione et Contagiosis. Morbis et eorum Curatione:
infection that passes from one thing to another
by contact, on fomites, by air discrete particles that reproduce
Emergence Human Society: Social, Animal Political and Economic Factors Ecological Factors
Redrawn from Updated Institute of Medicine report on microbial threats, April 2003 www.infectiousdiseasenews.com/200304/micro.asp
Jaffa
Direct impacts
Thermal stress: death, disease events, injury Storms, cyclones, floods, fires Sea-level rise: physical hazards, displacement
Land cover (forest, etc) Land use: soils Fresh water: glaciers river flows chemistry
Human predation
Oceans:
Anoxic zones Algal blooms Warming Acidity (CO2)
Nipah Virus Disease Outbreak in Malaysian Pig Farmers, 1997-1999: forests, fires, fruit, fatalities
Fruit bats (with their virus: ~40% positive)
Fruit orchards
Forest clearing i.e., Infected El Nio drying multiple influences Pig farming Eaten by pigs (sick) pigs Deforestation El Nio conditions Smoke haze Decline in fruit Rain Forest, 265 humans infected: with seasonal JE-like illness fruiting bat ~40% fatal Forest-fire smoke ? diet ~105 deaths
Is climate change increasing the northern limit of Culicoides vectors of Bluetongue virus in Europe?
Northern limit of BTV: 2004 Northern range, C. imicola group: 2004 Northern limit of BTV: < 1998 Northern range, C. imicola group: < 1998
Ways Forward
1. Discard militaristic models and language
Understand and anticipate the ecology of the microbial world and its Darwinian imperatives Reduce reliance on Weapons of Mass Destruction (antimicrobials, pesticides)