Foreign Exchange

London 08:00

FX Daily Strategist: Europe

AUDNZD v. Relative Rate expectations

1.00 0.75 0.50 AUDNZD 1.40 1.35 1.30

European bank stress tests to drive markets as analysts deliver verdict Any EUR rebound to be temporary ahead of Thursday EU summit No progress on US debt ceiling by Friday will see further market stress as deleveraging takes hold

A big week ahead for markets begins with the 'real' reaction to Friday's stress tests. Bank analysts will have spent the weekend 0.25 1.25 sorting through the data on peripheral debt holdings, and their verdicts will be expressed in this morning's trading in bank CDS 0.00 1.20 and shares. FX markets will take their cue from here. BNPP analysis suggests that the data reveals a somewhat less ugly -0.25 1.15 picture than feared, even if it is much worse than the EBA's politically constrained assessment. As such, there is scope for the -0.50 1.10 EUR sell off against USD and CHF seen in the illiquid Asian Relative Rate Expectations session to be reversed. But any reprieve is likely to be -0.75 1.05 temporary. Reports suggest that politicians are edging towards a Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun solution that includes a Greek default. EU President Van Rompuy 08 09 10 11 has called the long-awaited special summit for Thursday this Source: Reuters, BNPP. AUD came under week; but over the weekend Chancellor Merkel made it clear that pressure as an Australian bank called for she will not attend unless she thinks there is the makings of a significant rate cuts from the RBA over the next deal. Comments after a conference call expected on Wednesday 12 months. With relative rate expectations rewill be key to judging the prospects of success. Meanwhile, ECB priced, NZD managed to outperform AUD. Head Trichet has reiterated his opposition to accepting defaulted However, we continue to expect further tightening Greek bonds as collateral, saying that it will be up to governments from the RBA which should reverse NZDs to provide their own backstop for the Greek financial system if they outperformance against AUD insist upon private sector participation. Unless and until there are GMT Country Release Mkt Last signs of progress, we expect EUR to remain under pressure. 07:30 SE Riksbank Minutes We prefer short EUR positions against both CAD and JPY. 12:30 CA (May) Leading Indicat % (m/m) Fridays US CPI report showed that headline inflation declined 14:00 US (Jul) NAHB Housing 15 13 while core inflation was stronger than expected. The focus on both inflation and employment will linger given the Feds wait-and-see approach. As data weaken, expectations for QE3 will rise, weakening USD. But for now, as Bernanke noted, inflation is now higher than late last year, weakening the case for QE3. On the debt ceiling, the House is expected to vote on a bill to increase the governments debt limit by USD2.4trn, cut spending, and cap expenditures. But the attachment of a balanced budget amendment suggests that the bill is unlikely to pass. The unofficial deadline for an agreement remains this Friday in order to allow enough time to draft legislation by August 2nd, when the Treasury runs out of cash. The assumption across markets remains that a solution will be found, but if the guts of an agreement cannot be settled by then, markets will be subject to another round of stress as the implications of a default on the globes 'risk-free' asset get priced in. Deleveraging would likely see USD go bid; but other safe haven currencies would also benefit. Gold is likely to be the biggest winner. In the current environment, JPY and CHF will likely remain as the safe haven currencies of choice. Commodity currencies have held up well - in the case of AUD, despite recent concerns about the economy. Markets now price in over 35bp of rate cuts over the balance of the year: tomorrow's RBA minutes will provide insight on the RBA s latest thinking. We continue to see inflows into commodity currencies as reserve managers diversify into more fiscally responsible states; we expect dips in AUD to remain shallow. In contrast we are much less positive GBP, which has also held up relatively well, despite a stream of disappointing UK data. This weeks BoE minutes are likely to lean on the dovish side which should weigh on GBP. We suggest going short GBPAUD. This is not classified as objective research. Please refer to important information at the end of the report.
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FX: USD stronger against most G10 except CHF and JPY which show modest gains. SEK is the biggest loser (-1.42%) followed by NOK (-1.00%) then EUR (-0.83%). Asian currencies up to 0.30% weaker vs. USD with losses emphasised in MYR, PHP and KRW. Asian equity markets are modestly in the red this morning with biggest losses in Malaysia and S.Korea (-0.70%). Data/ events in the day ahead At 0730GMT the Riksbank publishes minutes of the Executive Board's monetary policy meeting from 5 July. At 1000GMT, the Bundesbank releases it's monthly bulletin. US events start at 1300GMT with the TICS data. At 1400GMT we have the NZHB Housing Market Index and then at 1430GMT by the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index. At 1600GMT, ECB Governing Council member Mario Draghi is due to brief the media on the Financial Stability Board plenary meeting in Paris. NEWS EUROPE: RECAP: 8 European banks fail the latest stress tests including 5 Spanish, 2 Greek and 1 Austrian. The failed banks would need 2.5 billion euros ($3.5 billion) in fresh capital, way below what most analysts had expected. Banks that barely passed: 7 Spanish, 2 German, 2 Greek, and 2 Portuguese. Moodys: Europe bank stress test results broadly consistent with our expectations, lack of capitalstrengthening action for Europe banks that failed test is negative surprise, capital shortfall amount, banks with capital shortfall in stress test seems low, lack of European regulatory cohesion on bank capital may hurt investor confidence, benefits of bank stress tests are improved transparency, incentive to boost capital. (Reuters) Spain and Italy top results in stress tests. Spain and Italys leading banks were the strongest performers in last weeks European stress tests, in a surprise result that could help relieve the funding pressure that had been building on them. The European Banking Authority, which conducted the exercise, found an aggregate capital shortfall of only 2.5bn ($3.5bn) at eight banks, prompting criticism that the tests were not tough enough, in part because they did not account for any sovereign failure even as Greece teeters on the brink of default. (FT) More than sovereign stress Europes banks. Europe's banks are sitting on vast quantities of loans to individuals and businesses in cash-strapped Southern European countries, highlighting how plain-vanilla loans, not just government debt, pose potential risks to the continent's troubled banking system. The holdings are detailed in disclosures Europe's largest banks made as part of the Foreign Exchange Strategy Monday, 18 July 2011 http://www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com

European Union "stress tests," whose results were announced Friday. (FT) ECB and Merkel clash over Greece. The head of the European Central Bank placed a major obstacle on the path to a new agreement on a Greek financial bail-out, saying the bank could not accept defaulted bonds as collateral, potentially cutting off fundng from the Greek banking system. Jean-Claude Trichet, in an interview with Financial Times Deutschland published on Monday, said other eurozone governments would have to come up with ways to keep Greek banks in business if they continued pushing for a bail-out plan that would lead to bond defaults. (FT) German Chancellor Merkel, when asked about Greek debt restructuring, says "Im not working towards that". Need for private sector involvement already shows we have special problem with Greece. Will only travel to EU summit next week if there is a result on Greece, says it is "urgently necessary".Europe must have its own credit rating agency in the medium term, would welcome input from industry ECBs Trichet said that if a country defaults, ECB can no longer accept its defaulted govt bonds as normal eligible collateral - newspaper interview. In financial times Deutschland interview euro zone governments must improve their "verbal discipline. ECB is not in favour at present of proposals for common euro bonds. EFSF rescue mechanism should be used as flexibly and effectively as possible ECBs Mersch: Greek rescue delay risks euro crisis, financial markets are "very insecure" mostly due "to hesitant decision-making on the level of finance ministers." Euro zone leaders will meet in Brussels on July 21 to discuss a second bailout package for Greece and the financial stability of the euro area. (Reuters) ECBs Weidman: Greek debt cut won't solve problem Athens needed to raise its productivity instead. (Reuters) ECBs Smaghi: EFSF buying Greek bonds useful idea, EFSF rules need to change to buy Greek bonds, privatesector involvement cant trigger credit event, supports creation of pan-Euro Finance Minister, contagion serious threat If Greece not solved. (Reuters) EUs Rehn: Maturities of Irish loans should be lengthened, interest rates lowered. Euro zone ministers agreed this week to more flexibility. Ireland concerned France may still use tax issue as hurdle. (Reuters) Eurozone exit could restore Greek competitiveness. It was not easy for Greece to gain admission to one of Europes most exclusive clubs when it joined the euro zone a decade ago. But leaving it for Athens or any other member may prove far more difficult. European policymakers insist that a Greek departure from the euro zone is not even under consideration because the economic and political consequences would be so severe. (FT)

US A bipartisan effort in the Senate to allow President Obama to raise the federal debt ceiling in exchange for about $1.5 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years gained momentum Sunday, as leaders agreed they would have to act in the next two weeks to avert a potential default by the U.S. government, the Washington Post says. With few signs of movement over the weekend on negotiations to raise the federal borrowing limit, Senate leaders are planning this week to unveil a back-up plan that would force more budget wrangling before the end of the year, the WSJ says. The main reason U.S. companies are reluctant to step up hiring is scant demand, rather than uncertainty over government policies, according to a majority of economists in a new Wall Street Journal survey. Obama: On Friday, said would not support a $2.4 trillion plan to reduce the federal deficit without some tax hikes to increase revenues, some balanced budget amendments in Congress would require cutting social security or Medicare substantially, US does not need constitutional amendment to balance budget, extension of payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance would be good for economy. (Reuters) President Barack Obama will meet today (1815 GMT) with top U.S. regulators to discuss progress on implementing the legislation he signed a year ago overhauling the country's financial regulatory system. At 1705 GMT, Obama will formally announce his intention to nominate former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray as head of the new U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. (Reuters) Australia/ New Zealand/Canada NZ government extends lead over opposition party Poll. New Zealands governing National Party extended its lead over its main opposition as support for the Labour Party tumbled in a poll conducted July 9-13, Television New Zealand said. (Bloomberg) NZ CPI inflation accelerated to 1.0% QoQ in Q2 from 0.8% the previous quarter vs. market expectations of 0.8%. On the year, it rose 5.3% in Q2 following a 4.5% gain. (Reuters) Australians favor early election as Gillards support slides. Most Australians favor an early national election and support for Prime Minister Julia Gillards Labor government fell to a new low amid plans to charge companies for pollution, a Nielsen poll today showed. (Bloomberg) China China June property survey shows fewer cities price rising. Prices of newly built homes in 44 of the 70 large and medium-size Chinese cities covered in a government survey rose in June from the previous month, down from 50 cities in May, indicating the central government's Foreign Exchange Strategy Monday, 18 July 2011 http://www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com

tightening efforts are showing modest results. Prices of newly built homes in 67 of the 70 cities covered by the survey rose in June from a year earlier, unchanged from the 67 recorded in the three months from March to May and lower than the 68 recorded in both January and February, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement Monday. (WSJ) China researcher sees more rate rises to cool prices. China could raise interest rates in coming months as it keeps monetary policy tight to tame inflation that is running at three-year highs and is still the biggest threat to its economy, a researcher at a government think-tank said. Chen Dongqi, deputy chief at the Academy of Macroeconomics Research, said he expects China's consumer inflation to quicken to 6.5 percent in July from June's three-year peak of 6.4 percent, before easing to 4.5 percent by December. (Reuters) Doubts over Chinese steel output. China is underreporting the amount of steel it makes by about 40m tonnes a year roughly the amount made by Germany according to a new analysis that provides insights into the recent high prices for the main raw material used by the world steel industry. Detective work by Meps, a UK steel consultancy, indicates that Chinese steel output last year was 672m tonnes nearly half of the world output as opposed to the 627m tonnes reported by the Chinese authorities. (FT) China confident US will avoid default. China expects that the US will be able to resolve its debt-ceiling impasse without triggering a default, advisers to the central bank and government say. As the biggest foreign creditor to the US, China stands to lose the most from any delayed payment of interest on Treasury debt or from a downgrading of the US sovereign rating that hurts the dollar. (FT) China has stern objection to Obamas meeting with Dalai Lama. China said it expresses strong indignation and stern objection to U.S. President Barack Obamas meeting with the Dalai Lama and that the meeting hurts Chinas interests and damages Sino-U.S. relations, according to a statement on the website of Chinas Foreign Ministry. (Bloomberg) Iraqi PM arrives in Beijing for first China Visit. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki arrived in Beijing Sunday night for his first official visit to China as a guest of his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao. During al-Maliki's stay in China from Sunday to Thursday, President Hu Jintao will meet with him, and Premier Wen will hold talks with the Iraqi prime minister, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said earlier. (ChinaDaily) Producers concerned as pork prices hike. Chinese pig farmers said they were concerned about the recent surge in pork prices, citing fears that the current boom might prompt vast profit-driven expansion and lead to price plunge. Latest statistics show China's pork prices surged 57 percent year-on-year in June, stoking inflation worries while setting pork suppliers fidgeting upon the potential shake-up in the industry. (ChinaDaily)

China 5-month car exports surge 54% to 298, 800 units. Chinas car exports increased 54 percent to 298,800 vehicles in the first five months of 2011 from a year earlier, with the value of shipments rising 48 percent to $3.63 billion, the South China Morning Post reported today, citing the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products. (Bloomberg) Bank yield spread quadruples on bad-debt risk. The premium investors demand to hold bonds issued by Chinese banks that lend to promote official policies quadrupled in the past eight months as Moodys Investors Service said local governments may owe more than was estimated in a national audit. The gap between yields on the lenders five-year notes and ministry of finance debt reached 83 basis points last week, the widest its been since June 2008, according to Chinabond, the nations biggest clearing house. The spread was 22 basis points on Nov. 11, the least in the past year. So-called policy banks, such as China Development Bank Corp., are major providers of loans to local government finance units, according to a central bank report issued on June 1. (Bloomberg) Sundance gets $1.5 billion bid proposal from Hanlong Sichuan Hanlong Group of China on Monday bid A$0.50 a share for West African iron ore exploration company Sundance Resources n the latest move by the private conglomerate to broaden its reach in global resources. (Reuters) US governors, Chinese discuss energy, farm deals With the struggling national economy and the impasse in Washington over the federal debt limit, U.S. governors meeting this weekend in Salt Lake City see at least one reason for optimism: new trade partnerships with China. (Reuters) China's soybean imports in 2011 are expected to decline 6.9 percent from a year earlier at about 51 million tonnes due to government sales of local soybeans, the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre said on Monday. (Reuters)

Foreign Exchange Strategy Monday, 18 July 2011 http://www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com

Daily Currency Summary

G3
Bank analysts will have spent the weekend sorting through the data on peripheral debt holdings, and their verdicts will be expressed in this morning's trading in bank CDS and shares. FX markets will take their cue from here. But any reprieve is likely to be temporary. Reports suggest that politicians are edging towards a solution that includes a Greek default. EU President Van Rompuy has called the long-awaited special summit for Thursday this week; but over the weekend Chancellor Merkel made it clear that she will not attend unless she thinks there is the makings of a deal. Comments after a conference call expected on Wednesday will be key to judging the prospects of success. Meanwhile, ECB Head Trichet has reiterated his opposition to accepting defaulted Greek bonds as collateral, saying that it will be up to governments to provide their own backstop for the Greek financial system if they insist upon private sector participation. Unless and until there are signs of progress, we expect EUR to remain under pressure. USDJPY struggled to rebound with the US inflation coming in slight softer than expected on a m/m basis, but core inflation came in at 1.6%. We see little chance of immediate intervention with the stance inconsistent with monetary policy following the BoJ upgrade to economic assessment earlier this week. But the authorities might tak a different view in the event of a more significant risk off move that saw USDJPY fall through 78 against the backdrop of a broader USD rally. We continue to call for a lower EURJPY but are less bearish on other yen crosses. The key will be the extent to which EUR is the driver as Euro-concerns mount over the upcoming week; and whether a more significant washout of retail JPY shorts takes place.

EURUSD

USDJPY

JPY Crosses

EUR Bloc
UK house prices fell in m/m terms for the first time this year, according to Rightmove. However, Sterling has done well against both the EUR and the USD but this can be said of most currencies. We remain unconvinced that there will be a more autonomous bid for GBP: at the moment it simply appears less ugly. The upcoming BoE minutes are likely to be the trigger to pull GBP lower as the BoE is likely to become more dovish. EURCHF opened sharply lower in iiliquid early Asian trading, marking another new low below 1.14. While the pair may have some upside if the markets verdict on the stress tests is more positive than expected, the next few days should see it remain under pressure. While SNB officials say they are concerned about CHF strength, they remain vehemently opposed to calls to peg the EURCHF as it impinges on monetary policy independence. If CHF strength is driven by a trend move of savings moving to Swiss deposits, it is hard to see what the Swiss can do - barring taking deposit rates into the negative to dissuade CHF strength.. Despite higher oil prices, NOK has failed to regain momentum against EUR. With little upcoming data, EURNOK remains hostage to developments within the Eurozone. With little sign of progress, the bias is for a move back towards the top of the range at 7.95. SEK follows a similar pattern to NOK: risk appetite and Eurozone stresses are driving the pair more than any domestic concerns. The recent high at 9.27 is back within sight, with stops likely above there. Sweden average house pieces rose in June to SEK 2.09mn from an upwardly revised 2.0mn in May (1.99mn pre-revision)

EURGBP

EURCHF

EURNOK EURSEK

USD Bloc
USDCAD managed to grind down to 0.9520 on Friday as oil made a comeback. 1m implieds have begun to recede, pricing in further range bound behaviour. Looking ahead, the path for energy prices will more likely determine the path forward for CAD. The BoC meeting this upcoming week will be important given the recent global developments. We believe that the BoC will remain on hold until December. Markets now price in over 35bp of rate cuts over the balance of the year; tomorrow's RBA minutes will provide insight on the RBA's latest thinking. We continue to see inflows into commodity currencies as reserve managers diversify into more fiscally responsible states; we expect dips in AUD to remain shallow as it remains supported by the sovereign bid and by mining investment inflows. Kiwi continues to outperform its cross-Tasman cousin as relative expectations for rate hikes are repriced. While NZDUSD remains at risk from further risk aversion, we continue to see outperformance against AUD and European currencies as insurance and sovereign inflows lend support.

USDCAD

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

Foreign Exchange Strategy Monday, 18 July 2011 http://www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com

FX Forecasts*
USD Bloc EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/SEK USD/NOK EUR Bloc EUR/JPY EUR/GBP EUR/CHF EUR/SEK EUR/NOK EUR/DKK Central Europe USD/PLN EUR/CZK EUR/HUF USD/ZAR USD/TRY EUR/RON USD/RUB EUR/PLN USD/UAH EUR/RSD Asia Bloc USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/IDR USD/THB USD/PHP USD/HKD USD/RMB USD/TWD USD/KRW USD/INR USD/VND LATAM Bloc USD/ARS USD/BRL USD/CLP USD/MXN USD/COP USD/VEF USD/PEN Others USD Index *End Quarter Q3 '11 1.50 78 0.83 1.65 0.98 1.09 0.82 5.93 4.98 Q3 '11 117 0.91 1.25 8.90 7.47 7.46 Q3 '11 2.60 24.3 275 6.80 1.52 4.20 27.51 3.90 7.8 100 Q3 '11 1.22 2.95 8500 29.80 42.50 7.80 6.40 28.00 1060 45.50 20500 Q3 '11 4.18 1.58 450 11.40 1730 4.29 2.70 Q3 '11 72.30 Q4 '11 1.55 83 0.83 1.68 0.93 1.13 0.84 5.48 4.77 Q4 '11 129 0.92 1.28 8.50 7.40 7.46 Q4 '11 2.48 24.5 275 6.60 1.50 4.15 27.25 3.85 7.8 100 Q4 '11 1.21 2.90 8400 29.50 42.00 7.80 6.31 27.50 1050 45.00 20000 Q4 '11 4.25 1.55 435 11.10 1690 4.29 2.65 Q4 '11 70.76 Q1 '12 1.45 85 0.90 1.59 0.95 1.07 0.81 5.93 5.07 Q1 '12 123 0.91 1.30 8.60 7.35 7.46 Q1 '12 2.69 24.1 269 6.55 1.56 4.20 27.86 3.90 7.5 98 Q1 '12 1.21 2.87 8300 29.30 41.50 7.80 6.25 27.00 1040 44.50 20000 Q1 '12 4.34 1.53 425 11.00 1690 4.29 2.63 Q1 '12 74.87 Q2 '12 1.40 90 0.93 1.56 0.97 1.04 0.80 6.21 5.26 Q2 '12 126 0.90 1.30 8.70 7.37 7.46 Q2 '12 2.75 23.9 265 6.60 1.59 4.25 27.97 3.85 7.5 97 Q2 '12 1.20 2.85 8200 29.00 41.00 7.80 6.21 26.70 1030 44.00 20000 Q2 '12 4.43 1.55 430 10.90 1700 4.29 2.63 Q2 '12 77.62 Q3 '12 1.35 95 1.00 1.53 1.01 0.99 0.76 6.67 5.56 Q3 '12 128 0.88 1.35 9.00 7.50 7.46 Q3 '12 2.81 23.8 265 6.50 1.63 4.15 28.08 3.80 7.5 96 Q3 '12 1.19 2.83 8100 28.70 40.50 7.80 6.17 26.50 1020 43.50 20000 Q3 '12 4.51 1.56 435 11.00 1710 4.29 2.64 Q3 '12 80.72 Q4 '12 1.35 95 1.00 1.53 1.01 0.99 0.76 6.67 5.56 Q4 '12 128 0.88 1.35 9.00 7.50 7.46 Q4 '12 2.78 23.5 260 6.50 1.65 4.10 27.65 3.75 7.5 95 Q4 '12 1.18 2.80 8000 28.50 40.00 7.80 6.13 26.00 1010 43.00 20000 Q4 '12 4.60 1.58 440 11.10 1720 4.29 2.66 Q4 '12 80.72 Q1 '13 1.30 95 1.04 1.53 1.04 0.96 0.74 6.92 5.77 Q1 '13 124 0.85 1.35 9.00 7.50 7.46 Q1 '13 2.85 23.7 260 7.20 1.65 4.20 28.19 3.70 7.5 93 Q1 '13 1.17 2.77 7900 28.30 39.50 7.80 6.23 26.00 1000 43.00 20000 Q1 '13 4.69 1.59 442 11.10 1725 8.80 2.67 Q1 '13 82.99 Q2 '13 1.30 95 1.04 1.53 1.04 0.96 0.74 6.92 5.77 Q2 '13 124 0.85 1.35 9.00 7.50 7.46 Q2 '13 2.77 24.0 255 7.10 1.67 4.20 27.75 3.60 7.5 92 Q2 '13 1.16 2.75 7800 28.00 39.00 7.80 6.20 26.00 1000 42.50 20000 Q2 '13 4.78 1.60 445 11.17 1730 8.80 2.68 Q2 '13 82.99 Q3 '13 1.30 95 1.04 1.53 1.04 0.96 0.74 6.92 5.77 Q3 '13 124 0.85 1.35 9.00 7.50 7.46 Q3 '13 2.85 23.5 260 7.00 1.69 4.10 29.07 3.70 7.5 91 Q3 '13 1.15 2.73 7800 28.00 39.00 7.80 6.17 26.00 1000 42.50 20000 Q3 '13 4.86 1.61 447 11.25 1740 8.80 2.69 Q3 '13 82.99 Q4 '13 1.30 95 1.04 1.53 1.04 0.96 0.74 6.92 5.77 Q4 '13 124 0.85 1.35 9.00 7.50 7.46 Q4 '13 2.85 23.3 260 6.90 1.69 3.95 27.75 3.70 7.3 90 Q4 '13 1.14 2.70 7800 28.00 39.00 7.80 6.15 26.00 1000 42.00 20000 Q4 '13 4.95 1.62 450 11.30 1750 8.80 2.70 Q4 '13 82.99 Q1 '14 1.34 114 1.09 1.70 1.21 0.78 0.56 6.94 5.07 Q1 '14 153 0.79 1.46 9.30 6.80 7.46 Q1 '14 2.65 23.1 250 6.69 1.54 3.90 27.75 3.55 7.4 85 Q1 '14 --------------------------------------------Q1 '14 ----------------------------Q1 '14 83.88

Foreign Exchange Strategy Monday, 18 July 2011 http://www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com

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Foreign Exchange Strategy Monday, 18 July 2011 http://www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com