June2011USDAWASDEReportSoybeans&Oilseeds

DanielOBrienExtensionAgriculturalEconomist,KStateResearchandExtension
Email:dobrien@ksu.edu,twitter:@KSUGrains
June15,2011

Summary
ThesupplydemandinformationforU.S.andWorldsoybeansandotheroilseedcropscontainedin
theJune9thUSDAWorldAgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimates(WASDE)reportispreliminaryin
naturegiventhatthe2011U.S.soybeancropwaseitherinthelaterstagesofplantingorinthe
earlystagesofdevelopmentintheU.S.atthetimeofthereport.WiththerestofJune,allofJulyand
especiallycriticalAugustsoybeangrowingseasonconditionsintheU.S.toworkthrough,aswellas
uncertaintyabout2011U.S.soybeancropacreage,theprojectedU.S.soybeansupplydemand
balancesforthe2011/12marketingyearcontainedintheJuneWASDEreportcouldvarymarkedly
beforefall2011harvest.

IntheJuneWASDE,theUSDAprojectedthatU.S.soybeanprojectionwouldbe3.285billionbushels
(bb),thatU.S.soybeanexportsinMY2011/12wouldcontinueatnearrecordhighlevels(i.e.,1.52
bb),andthatU.S.soybeanendingstockswouldbe190mb(5.8%S/U)inMY2011/12(i.e.,anincrease
from180millionbushels(5.4%S/U)inMY2010/11).Marketingyearaveragepricesareforecastto
stayrecordhigh,withtheMY2011/12priceprojectedtobeinthe$13.00$15.00range(versus
$11.40perbushelinMY2010/11).

WorldsoybeanandbroaderoilseedcropendingstocksforMY2011/12areprojectedtodeclinefrom
yearagolevels,buttoremainabovetheendingstocksamountsofMY2009/10.However,with
continuinggrowthinWorldsoybeanandbroaderoilseedcropusage,%endingstockstouseare
projectedtoactuallydeclinerelativetobothMY2010/11andMY2009/10.Worldendingstocks
balancesarenotcurrentlyatcriticallyshortlevelsforeithersoybeansorthebroadercategoryof
oilseeds.Buttheyarevulnerabletoanyunexpectedshortfallinproductionduringthe20112012
period,asendingstocksforoilseedcropsarenotabundantenoughtoabsorbanysignificantsoybean
/oilseedproductioncutbackwithouttheneedtoseriouslyrationusage.

Projectionsof2011U.S.soybeanproductionwillbecriticalintheJulyWASDEreport,andespeciallyin
theinitial2011farmer/fieldsurveybasedAugustUSDANationalAgriculturalStatisticalService(NASS)
CropProductionandWASDEreports.Fromthere,successiveUSDACropProductionandWASDE
reportsforSeptember,October,andNovemberwillprovidekeysoybeanmarketsupplydemand
informationthatwillbecriticalto201112marketprospects.Also,prospectsforextensivesummer
floodingoffarmlandalongtheMissouriandlowerMississippiRivervalleysarehighthissummer,and
couldcausesignificantlossofsoybeanacresthatwillbeaccountedforinthesecomingUSDAreports.

Soybeanandothergrainmarketsarelikelytoremainextremelyvolatile,withcropproductionaswell
asfinancial/currencymarketsandbroadereconomicfactorshavingsizableinfluencesonsoybean
futuresandcashprices.
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I.U.S.SoybeanMarketSituationandOutlook
SoybeanMarketsContinuedstrongsupportforsoybeanprices,withacreage,yieldandproduction
uncertaintydominatingmarketsthroughsummerfall2011.Anincreasein2011soybeanacresmay
occurduetoswitchingoffarmersfromacresthatwereoriginallyintendedforcorn,especiallyinthe
easternandnorthernU.S.CornBelt.StrongexportcompetitionfromSouthAmericaninMY2011/12.

U.S.SoybeanSupplyDemand&PriceProjectionsforMY2010/11&MY2011/12
ChangesinOldCropMY2010/11U.S.SupplyDemand&Prices:IntheJuneWASDEreporttheUSDA
reducedprojectedsoybeanexportsby100millionbushels(mb)to1.540billionbushels(bb)(Table1).
EvenwiththisdecreasethisisstillarecordhighamountofsoybeanexportsfortheU.S.,eclipsingthe
previoushighof1.501bbinMY2009/10.Asaresult,U.S.soybeanendingstocksforMY2010/11
werereducedbythesameamountdownto3.315bbthesecondhighestamountofU.S.soybean
usageonrecordbehind3.361bbinMY2009/10.
Thesesupplydemandchangescauseda10mbincreaseinMY2010/11U.S.soybeanendingstocksto
180mb.Asaresult,%endingstockstouseincreasedto5.4%forMY2010/11(upfrom5.1%in
May).AverageU.S.soybeanpricesforMY2010/11wereestimatedtobe$11.40perbushel,which
wouldbearecordhighexceptfortheprojectedpriceof$13.00$15.00perbushelforMY2011/12
(seebelow).
Table1.U.S.SoybeanSupplyDemandBalanceSheet:MY2007/08throughMY2011/12
(June9,2011USDAWASDEReport)
Item
PlantedArea(millionacres)
HarvestedArea(millionacres)
Yieldperharvestedacre(bushels/acre)

BeginningStocks
Production
Imports
TotalSupply
DomesticCrushings
Exports
Seed
Residual
TotalUse
EndingStocks
%EndingStockstoTotalUse
U.S.AverageFarmPrice($/bushel)

2007/08
64.7
64.1
41.7

2008/09
75.7
74.7
39.7

2009/10
77.5
76.4
44.0

2010/11
77.4
76.6
43.5

2011/12
76.6
75.7
43.4

millionbushels

574
2,677
10
3,261
1,803
1,159
89
5
3,056
205
6.7%
$10.10

205
2,967
13
3,185
1,662
1,279
90
16
3,047
138
4.5%
$9.97

138
3,359
15
3,512
1,752
1,501
90
18
3,361
151
4.5%
$9.59

151
180
3,329
3,285
15
15
3,495
3,480
1,650
1,655
1,540
1,520
89
90
36
25
3,315
3,290
180
190
5.4%
5.8%
$13.00$15.00
$11.40
Midpoint=

$14.00

2011U.S.SoybeanProduction:IntheJuneWASDEreporttheUSDAmadenochangesinitsinitial
projectionof2011U.S.soybeanproductionmadelastmonthintheMay2011WASDEreport(Table
1).Basedonprojected2011plantedacreageandharvestedacreageof76.6millionacres(ma)and
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75.7ma,respectively,andprojectedU.S.trendsoybeanyieldsof43.4bu/ac,U.S.soybeanproduction
in2011wasestimatedtobe3.285bb.PlantedacresestimatesweretakenfromtheUSDANational
AgriculturalStatisticalService(NASS)ProspectivePlantingsreportonMarch31st.Harvestedacreage
projectionsarebasedon5yearaverageharvestedtoplantedacreageratiosbystate.Projected2011
soybeanyieldsarebasedonU.S.regionalyieldtrendsforthe19892009period.Theprojectionof
3.285bb2011U.S.soybeanproductionwouldbethethirdhighestamountonrecord,trailing3.359
bbin2009and3.329bbin2010.
Thisprojectionof2011U.S.soybeanproductionishighlytentative,withtheremainderofJune,Julyandthekey
soybeanproductionmonthofAugustyettooccur.QuestionslingeraboutU.S.soybeanplantedacreage,with
thepossibilityofU.S.farmersineasternandnorthernCornBeltstateshavingshiftedfromintendedcornacres
thatotherwiseweretoolateto(i.e.,plantprevented)tosoybeans.Also,thereareprospectsofsignificant
floodingalongtheMissouriandlowerMississippiriversinJuneandJuly,withthepossibilityofdestroying
appreciableamountsof2011soybeanacreage.ThesequestionsarelikelytocontinuetohaunttheU.S.corn
andsoybeanmarketsatleastuntilUSDANASSreleasestheAugustCropreportthefirstUSDANASS
informationbasedonactualfarmerandinfieldsurveysin2011.

TotalU.S.NewCropSoybeanSuppliesinMY2011/12:Projectedbeginningstocksof170mbforMY
2011/12areup10mbfromtheMayWASDA,andareupfrom151mbinMY2010/11,and138mbin
MY2009/10.Withimportsprojectedtobe15mb,and2011U.S.soybeanproductionprojectedtobe
3.285bb,totalU.S.soybeansuppliesforMY2011/12areprojectedtobe3.480bb,up10mbfrom
theMayWASDE,butdownfrom3.495bbinMY2010/11(Table1).
ProjectedU.S.soybeantotalsuppliesof3.480bbinMY2011/12wouldbethefourthhighestamountonrecord,
following3.655bbinMY2006/07,3.512bbinMY2009/10,and3.495bbinMY2010/11.

U.S.SoybeanUsageinMY2011/12:SoybeancrushforMY2011/12isprojectedtobe1.655bb,
marginallyhigherthan1.650bbinMY2010/11,butdown5.5%from1.752bbinMY2009/10(Figure
1).TherecordhighlevelsofU.S.soybeancrushwere1.808bbinMY2006/07and1.803bbinMY
2007/08withtherecentlowbeing1.530bbinMY2003/04.
Soybeanexportsareprojectedtobe1.520bb,down20mbfromtheMayWASDE,anddownfrom
therecordhigh1.540bbinMY2010/11,butabove1.501bbofU.S.soybeanexportsinMY2009/10
(Figure1).
U.S.soybeanexportshavetrendedhigherfromMY2005/06toMY2010/11increasingfrom940mbuptoa
recordhighof1.550bb(Figure1).ProjectedU.S.soybeanexportsforMY2011/12of1.54bbwouldbethefirst
yeartoyeardeclinesinceMY2005/06.

SeedandresidualuseofU.S.soybeansareprojectedtobe90mband25mb,respectively,withseed
useup1mbandresidualusedown11mbfromMY2010/11.TotalU.S.soybeanuseforMY2011/12
isprojectedtobe3.290bb,down20mbfromtheMayWASDE,anddownfrom3.315bbinMY
2010/11,andfromtherecordhigh3.361bboftotalU.S.soybeanusageinMY2009/10.
SinceMY2000/01,totalU.S.soybeanusagehasgrownatanaveragerateof50mbor1.8%peryear.During
thissametimeU.S.domesticcrushofsoybeanshasgrownatarateof1mbor0.1%annually,whileU.S.
exportsofsoybeanshavegrownatanannualrateof54mbor5.4%.Thesedisparatetrendsindicatethe
dependenceoftheU.S.soybeanindustryonexportsforcontinuedgrowth,andconsequentlyoncontinued
soybeanexportpurchasesbyChinatheprimarybuyerofU.S.andWorldsoybeanexports.

SoybeanEndingStocks&EndingStockstoUseinMY2011/12:EndingstocksofU.S.soybeansare
projectedat190mbinMY2011/12,up30mbfromtheMayWASDE,andupfrom180mbinMY
Page|3

2010/11,andfrom151mbinMY2009/10.Takingtheendingstocksandusageprojectionstogether,
MY2011/12%endingstockstouseisprojectedtobe5.8%,upfrom5.4%inMY2010/11,butabove
4.5%S/UinbothMY2009/10andMY2008/09.TherecordlowU.S.soybean%stockstousefigure
sincetheearly1970swas4.2%inMY2003/04.
Ifproventobetrueoverthecourseofthemarketingyear,projectedMY2011/12endingstocksof190mb
(5.8%S/U)wouldbethesecondconsecutiveyearofatleastmarginallyhigherU.S.soybeanendingstocksto
usesincetheconsecutive4.5%endingstockstouselevelsinMY2008/09andMY2009/10.Ifproduction
problemsoccurforthe2011U.S.soybeancroporthe2012SouthAmericancrops(duringtheDecember2011
April2012period)itislikelytheU.S.soybeanstockswouldquicklytightenupagainfallingtonearminimum
MY2007/08levels.

Figure1.U.S.SoybeanUseandEndingStocks:MY2004/05throughMY2011/12
(June9,2011USDAWASDEReport)
2,000

1,808

1,739

1,696

1,803

1,752

1,662

1,650

MillionBushels

1,501
1,500

1,097

940

1,000

500

449

1,655
1,520

1,279

1,159

1,116

1,540

574

256

205

138

151

180

190

2004/05

2005/06

DomesticCrush

2006/07
Exports

2007/08
2008/09
MarketingYears
Seed&Residual

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

EndingStocks

ProjectedU.S.SoybeanPricesinMY2011/12:U.S.seasonaveragesoybeanpricesforMY2011/12
areprojectedtobeintherangeof$13.00$15.00perbushel,withamidpointof$14.00.Thisisup
$1.00onbothendsofthepricerangefromtheMayWASDEreport,andcomparestoanestimated
MY2010/11priceof$11.40,andto$9.59/buinMY2009/10,$9.97/buinMY2008/09,and$10.10
/buinMY2007/08.
SoybeanPrices&%EndingStockstoUse:Figure2showstherelationshipbetweenU.S.soybean%
endingstockstouseandseasonaveragecashpricessinceMY1973/74.Althoughthenegative
relationshipbetweenstockstouseandpricesisreadilyshowninFigure2,sinceMY2007/08soybean
priceshavemovedmarkedlyhigherinresponsetotightU.S.soybeanstockstousethaninearlier
periods.
ReasonsforthisapparentinflationorstephigherinU.S.soybeanpricesmayincludea)declinesinthevalue
oftheU.S.dollarandassociatedcommoditypriceinflation,b)increasedparticipationinagriculturalcommodity
futuresmarketsbynoncommercialspeculativetraders,c)increasedcostsofproductionforU.S.crops,and/ord)
thesimultaneousoccurrenceofgenerallytightU.S.andWorldstocksforfeedgrains,oilseedsandperiodically
wheatresultingfromacombinationofsupplyanddemandfactors.
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Figure2.U.S.SoybeanEndingStocksvsU.S.Avg.CashPrices:MY1973/74throughMY2011/12
(June9,2011USDAWASDEReport)
60

$16
$14.00

%EndingStockstoUse

$11.40

40
30

$10.10
$7.57

20

$5.88

$7.83

$7.42

$5.71

$4.92

$10

$9.59

$6.64 $6.81

$7.35
$6.72
$6.40
$6.47

$7.34

$8
$6.43

$6

$5.66

$5.48

$4.78

$12

U.S.Cash$perbu

$14

50

$4

$4.38

10

5.8%

$2

0
2013

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

$0

MarketingYear

U.S.Soybean%EndingStocks/Use

U.S.SoybeanPrice

U.S.SoybeanMealSupplyDemand&PriceProjections
U.S.SoybeanMealChangesinOldCropMY2010/11SupplyDemand&Prices:ForOldCropMY
2010/11,anumberofU.S.SoybeanMealsupplydemandbalancesheetadjustmentsweremadein
theJuneWASDEreport.ProjectedMY2010/11productionwasincreased100,000shorttons(st)to
39.683millionshorttons(mst).Projectedexportsincreased100,000stto9.250mst.Asaresultof
thesechanges,projectedU.S.totalsoybeanmealusageforMY2010/11increased100,000stto
39.850mst,whileprojectedMY2010/11U.S.soybeanoilendingstockswereunchangedat300,000
st.TheprojectedU.S.averagesoybeanmealpriceforMY2010/11wasunchangedat$350.00per
shortton.
U.S.SoybeanMealNewCropMY2010/11SupplyDemand&Prices:ForNewCropMY2011/12,
U.S.soybeanmealproductionandtotalsuppliesareprojectedtodeclineintheU.S.inMY2011/12
fromMY2010/11levels.Soybeanmealproductionisprojectedtobe39.285mstinMY2011/12,
downfrom39.683mstand41.700mstinMY2010/11andMY2009/10,respectively.Projectedtotal
suppliesof39.750mstinMY2011/12areprojectedtobedownfrom40.150mstinMY2010/11and
from42.095mstinMY2009/10.Whileprojecteddomesticusageofsoybeanmealof30.800mstin
MY2011/12isup0.7%from30.600mstinMY2010/11andupfrom30.619mstinMY2009/10,
projectedsoybeanmealexportsforMY2011/12of8.650mstaredown6.5%from9.25mstinMY
2010/11anddown22.6%from11.175mstinMY2009/10.
U.S.soybeanmealexportsaredownmarkedlyinMY2011/12mainlyduetoatleastmarginalincreasesin
soybeanmealexportsbytheBrazilandArgentinainMY2011/12.

ProjectedU.S.totalsoybeanmealusageof39.450mstinMY2011/12isdown1.0%from39.85mstin
MY2010/11anddown5.6%from41.794mstinMY2009/10.Projectedendingstocksof300mstin
Page|5

MY2011/12areessentiallyequaltotheamountsoftheprevioustwomarketingyears.ProjectedU.S.
soybeanmealpricesforMY2011/12are$375$405pershorttoncomparedto$350inMY2010/11,
$311.27inMY2009/10andfrom$331.17inMY2010/11.

U.S.SoybeanOilSupplyDemand&PriceProjections
U.S.SoybeanOilChangesinOldCropMY2010/11SupplyDemand&Prices:ForOldCropMY
2010/11,anumberofU.S.SoybeanOilsupplydemandbalancesheetadjustmentsweremadeforin
theJuneWASDEreport.ProjectedMY2010/11productionwasincreased50millionpounds(mp)to
19.090billionpounds(bp).Projecteddomesticuseforfood,feedandotherusesdecreased100mp
to14.200bp.Projecteddomesticuseformethylester(biofuelproduction)decreased100mpto
2.400bp.Projectedexportsdecreased100mpto3.200bp.Asaresultofthesechanges,projected
U.S.totalsoybeanoilusageforMY2010/11decreased300mpto19.8bp,whileprojectedMY
2010/11U.S.soybeanoilendingstocksdeclined348mpto2.823bp.TheprojectedU.S.average
soybeanoilpriceforMY2010/11increased$0.50perpoundto$54.00.
U.S.SoybeanOilNewCropMY2010/11SupplyDemand&Prices:ForNewCropMY2011/12,U.S.
soybeanoilproductionandtotalsuppliesareprojectedtodeclinefromMY2010/11levels.Soybean
oilproductionisprojectedtobe18.900bpinMY2011/12,downfrom19.09bpand19.614bpinMY
2010/11andMY2009/10,respectively.Projectedtotalsuppliesof21.908bpinMY2011/12would
bedown3.2%from22.623bpinMY2010/11,anddown3.0%from22.577bpinMY2009/10.
Projecteddomesticusageofsoybeanoilforfood,feedandotherusesof14.450bpinMY2011/12is
upfrom14.200bpand14.182bpinMY2010/11andMY2009/10,respectively.Projecteddomestic
usageofsoybeanoilasmethylesterforbiofuelproductionof3.5bpinMY2011/12isupfrom2.4bp
and1.681bpinMY2010/11andMY2009/10,respectively.Conversely,projectedsoybeanoil
exportsof1.800bpinMY2011/12areup0.200bpfromtheMayWASDE,butaredown43.8%from
3.200bpinMY2010/11,anddown46.4%from3.357bpinMY2009/10.
U.S.soybeanoilexportsaredownmarkedlyinMY2011/12mainlyduetoincreasedU.S.domesticusageof
soybeanoil,butalsobecauseofmarginallylargerincreasesinsoybeanoilexportsbytheEuropeanUnionand
BrazilinMY2011/12.

Totalsoybeanoilusageof19.750bpinMY2011/12isup0.20bpfromtheMayWASDE.The
projectionof19.750bpinMY2011/12isdownfrom19.800bpinMY2010/11,butupfrom19.219
bpinMY2009/10.Projectedendingstocksof2.158bpinMY2011/12aredown23.6%from2.823bp
inMY2011/12,anddown35.7%from3.358bpinMY2009/10.ProjectedU.S.soybeanoilpricesfor
MY2011/12are$58$62permillionpounds,upfrom$54.00inMY2010/11and$35.95inMY
2009/10.

II.WorldSupplyDemandforOilseeds&Soybeans
WorldOilseedSupplyDemandinMY2011/12
AlthoughprojectedWorldoilseedproductionis19.3%largerthanWorldusageinMY2011/12,World
oilseed%endingstockstouseisprojectedtotightencomparedtoMY2010/11andMY2009/10.
Worldoilseedtotaluseisprojectedtoincrease9.0%fromMY2009/10toMY2011/12,while
productionandtotalsuppliesareexpectedtoincrease3.3%and6.9%,respectively,overthesame
Page|6

timeperiod.WorldoilseedmarketsupplydemandbalanceswillbemarkedlyaffectedbyU.S.
soybeanproductionevenwithrecordlargeBraziliansoybeanproductionin2011.
ProductionofWorldoilseedsinMY2011/12isprojectedtobe456.9mmt,upfrom450.6mmtinMY
2010/11,andupfrom442.3mmtinMY2009/10.Totaloilseedsuppliesareprojectedtobe531.6
mmtinMY2011/12,upfrom521.5mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom497.4mmtinMY2009/10.
Worldoilseedtradeisprojectedtobe115.2mmt,upfrom109.6mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom
108.1mmtinMY2009/10.Totaluseofoilseedsisprojectedtobe389.6mmt,upfrom377.5mmtin
MY2010/11,andupfrom357.6mmtinMY2009/10.
Endingstocksareprojectedtobe71.1mmt(18.3%S/U)inMY2011/12,downfrom74.7mmt(19.8%
S/U)inMY2010/11,butupfrom71.0mmt(19.8%S/U)inMY2009/10.ThecategoryofOilseeds
includessoybeans,sunflowers,cotton,canola,flaxseed,peanuts,andotheroilseedtypecrops.

WorldSoybeanSupplyDemandinMY2011/12
ProjectedWorldsoybeanproductionaccountsfor57.5%ofprojectedWorldoilseedoutputinMY
2011/12,whilesoybeanusageaccountsfor67.6%ofWorldoilseedusage.ProjectedWorldsoybean
productionismarginallylowerinMY2011/12thaninMY2010/11,butismorethanoffsetbylarger
beginningstocks.However,stronggrowthinWorldsoybeanusagehasledtoaprojectedtightening
ofendingstocksinMY2011/12overthepreviousyear,andacontinuedtighteningofWorldsoybean
endingstockstousesinceMY2009/10.
ProductionofWorldsoybeansinMY2011/12isprojectedtobe262.8mmt,downfrom263.5mmtin
MY2010/11,butupfrom260.8mmtinMY2009/10.Worldsoybeanexportsareprojectedtobe98.8
mmtinMY2011/12,up4.2mmtfrom94.5mmtinMY2010/11,andalsoup6.1mmtfrom92.7mmt
inMY2009/10.Totaldomesticuseofsoybeansisprojectedtobe263.2mmt,up2.9%from255.8
mmtinMY2010/11,andinparticularup10.4%from238.4mmtinMY2009/10.
Endingstocksareprojectedtobe61.6mmt(23.4%S/U)inMY2011/12,downfrom64.5mmt(25.2%
S/U)inMY2010/11,butupfrom59.3mmt(24.9%S/U)inMY2009/10.Asstatedabove,although
MY2011/12endingstocksareprojectedtobehigherthaninMY2009/10,%endingstockstouseis
lessbecauseofcontinuedexpansioninWorldsoybeanusage.

LongerTermTrendsinWorldSoybeanSupplyDemand
Figure3showsthegeneraltrendtowardslargerWorldsoybeancrushandtotalusagethathas
occurredsinceMY2004/05,aswellastherationingeffectofreducedsuppliesonusageandending
stocksduringMY2008/09.
Worldsoybeansupplydemandbalanceshavebeendriveninrecentyearsbystrongtrendincreases
inWorldsoybeanusageordemandontheonehandandincreasingbutvariableWorldsoybean
productionontheother(Figure4).Forthe11yearperiodfromMY2000/01throughMY2010/11,
Worldsoybeanusegrewatanaveragerateof7.7mmtor4.5%peryear.ProjectedtotalusageinMY
2011/12of263.2mmtwouldbeanincreaseof7.4mmtor2.9%overthepreviousyear.World
soybeanproductionhasincreasedby8.0mmtor4.5%peryearoverthesame11yearperiod.
ProjectedWorldsoybeanproductioninMY2011/12of262.8mmtwouldbeadecreaseof0.7mmtor
0.3%overthepreviousyear.

Page|7

Figure3.WorldSoybeansUsage&EndingStocks:MY2004/05thruMY2011/12
(June9,2011USDAWASDEReport)

Millionmetrictons(mmt)

350
300
250
200

62

59

65

62

15

15

15

15

16

13

14

51
14
14

43
14

186

196

203

193

210

225

233

175

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

48
16

53
17

13

14
15

14

150
100
50
0

MarketingYear

Crush

FoodUse

Feed&Waste

EndingStocks

Figure4.WorldSoybeanSupplyDemand:MY2006/07thruMY2011/12

(June9,2011USDAWASDEReport)
300
261 263 263

Millionmetrictons(mmt)

250

236
220

256
226 231 221

212

263

238

200
150
93 95 99

100

79 77
71

62

50

51

59 65 62
43

0
Production
MY2006/07

MY2007/08

Usage
MY2008/09

Exports
MY2009/10

MY2010/11

EndingStocks
MY2011/12

Worldsoybeanexportshavegrownatarateof3.7mmtor6.9%overtheMY2000/01throughMY
2010/11period.ProjectedWorldsoybeanexportsinMY2011/12of98.8mmtwouldbeanincrease
of4.2mmtor4.5%overthepreviousyear.Worldsoybeanendingstockshavebeenvariableoverthe
last11years,butgenerallyhaveincreasedatarateof2.8mmtor8.2%overtheMY2000/01through
MY2010/11period.ProjectedWorldsoybeanendingstocksinMY2011/12of61.6mmtwouldbea
decreaseof2.9mmtor4.5%fromthepreviousyear.
Page|8


ThisWorldsoybeanmarketdataindicatesthevulnerabilityofWorldsoybeansupplydemandbalancestoany
significantshortfallinWorldsoybeancropproductionineitherMY2011/12orMY2012/13.Withconsistent
growthinWorldsoybeanusageandWorldsoybeanexports,andwithmoderate(butnotplentiful)World
soybeanendingstocks,a2011Worldsoybeancropthatis,say,20mmtbelowprojectionsof263.3mmtwould
haveamarkedimpactonMY2011/12endingstocks,likelydroppingthemdowntonear4247mmt,i.e.,down
tolevelslastseeninMY2008/09.

ThefollowingsectionprovidesadetailedbreakdownoftheMay11,2011USDAWASDEreportfor
Worldoilseeds,soybeans,soybeanmealandsoybeanoilfocusingoncountrybycountryprojections
forproduction,supplies,usageandendingstocks.

WorldProduction
GlobalOilseedProductionisprojectedtobe456.9mmtinMY2011/12,up1.4%from450.6mmtinMY
2010/11,andup3.3%from442.3mmtinMY2009/10.ThecategoryofOilseedsincludessoybeans,
sunflowers,cotton,canola,flaxseed,peanuts,andotheroilseedtypecrops.
GlobalSoybeanProductionisprojectedtobe262.8mmtinMY2011/12(arecordhigh),down0.3%from
263.49mmtinMY2010/11,butup0.7%from260.8mmtinMY2009/10.TheWorldslargestsoybean
producersandtheirprojectedproductionforMY2011/12,arelistedbelow.
1) UnitedStatesdown1.3%to89.4mmtfrom90.6mmtinMY2010/11,anddownfrom91.4mmtinMY2009/10
2) Brazildown2.7%to72.5mmtfromarecordhigh74.5mmtinMY2010/11,butupfrom69mmtinMY2009/10
3) Argentinaup7.0%to53.0mmtfrom49.5mmtinMY2010/11,butlessthan54.5mmtinMY2009/10
4) Chinadown5.9%to14.3mmtfrom15.2mmtinMY2010/11,anddownfrom15mmtinMY2009/10
LowersoybeanproductionprospectsinChinaarelikelytomaketheChineseevenmoreaggressiveimportersofWorld
soybeanandsoybeanproductsinMY2011/12.

WorldTrade
GlobalOilseedExportprojectionsofarecordhigh115.2mmtinMY2011/12areup5.1%from109.0mmtin
MY2010/11,andup6.5%from108.1mmtinMY2009/10,showingcontinuedgrowth&fewsignsofprice
rationing.
GlobalSoybeanExportsareprojectedtobearecordhigh98.8mmtinMY2011/12,up4.5%from94.5mmtin
MY2010/11,andup6.6%from92.7mmtinMY2009/10.Worldsoybeanexportsaccountfor85.7%ofWorld
oilseedproduct(intermsofmmt).Figure5illustratestrendsinsoybeanexportsfortheUnitedStates,Brazil
andArgentinatheWorlds3largestsoybeanexportersovertheMY2006/07throughtheprojectedMY
2011/12timeperiod.
1) UnitedStatesdown1.3%to41.4mmtfrom41.9mmtinMY2010/11,butupfrom40.9mmtinMY2009/10
2) Brazilup6.8%to34.0mmtfrom31.9mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom28.6mmtinMY2009/10
3) Argentinaup31.1%to11.8mmtfrom9.0mmtinMY2010/11,butdownfrom13.1mmtinMY2009/10
RecordhighMY2010/11BraziliansoybeanproductionandprospectsforanotherlargecropinMY2011/12leadto
projectionsofhigherBraziliansoybeanexportsinMY2011/12.Aprojectedreturntoregularsoybeanproductionin
ArgentinainMY2011/12istheimpetusforasizableincreaseinArgentinesoybeanexportsinthecomingmarketingyear.
ProjectedshortfallsinChinesesoybeanproductionandtherequisiteneedformoresoybeanandsoybeanproductimports
allworktogethertoincreaseexpectationsforMY2011/12soybeanexportsfromSouthAmerica.
FromFigure5notethemorepronounceduptrendinBraziliansoybeanexportsovertheMY2009/10throughprojectedMY
2011/12thanfortheUnitedStatesoverthesameperiod.Incontrast,Argentinasoybeanexportsaremorevariable,owing
tobothweatherproductionissues,toArgentinefarmersresponsestogovernmentalexporttaxpoliciestowardsoybeans,
andtotheirfocusonsoybeanmealexports.

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Figure5.SoybeanExportsfortheU.S.,Brazil&Argentina:MY2006/07thruMY2011/12

(June9,2011USDAWASDEReport)
50
41.9

40.9
MillionMetricTons

40

41.4

34.8
31.5

30.4
30
23.5

34.0

31.9

30.0

28.6

25.4

20
13.8
10

13.1

9.6

11.8

9.0
5.6

0
MY2006/07

MY2007/08

MY2008/09

MY2009/10

MY2010/11

MY2011/12

MarketingYears

UnitedStates

Brazil

Argentina

GlobalSoybeanMealExportsareprojectedtobearecordhigh61.1mmtinMY2011/12,up0.3%from60.8
mmtinMY2010/11,andup9.6%from55.7mmtinMY2009/10.
1) Argentinaup3.0%to30.2mmtfrom29.6mmtinMY2010/11andupfrom24.9mmtinMY2009/10
2) Brazilup5.3%to14.6mmtfrom14.1mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom13.0mmtinMY2009/10
3) UnitedStatesdown6.4%to7.85mmtfrom8.4mmtinMY2010/11,andfrom10.1mmtinMY2009/10
4) Indiadown13.3%to3.9mmtfrom4.5mmtinMY2010/11,butupfrom3.2mmtinMY2009/10
NotethegreaterfocusofArgentinaonsoybeanmealexportsthanforeithertheUnitedStatesorBrazil,aswellasthe
declineofU.S.soybeanmealexportsoverthe3yearperiod.

GlobalSoybeanOilExportsareprojectedtobe9.3mmtinMY2011/12,down6.6%fromarecordhigh10.0
mmtinMY2010/11,andup0.8%from9.3mmtinMY2009/10.
1) Argentinaup0.2%to5.13mmtfrom5.12mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom4.45mmtinMY2009/10
2) Brazilup3.8%to1.66mmtfrom1.60mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom1.45mmtinMY2009/10
3) UnitedStatesdown43.4%to0.82mmtfrom1.45mmtinMY2010/11,anddownfrom1.52mmtinMY2009/10
4) EuropeanUniondown12.5%to0.35mmtfrom0.40mmtinMY2010/11,butdownfrom0.38mmtinMY2009/10

GlobalSoybeanImportsareprojectedtobearecordhigh96.2mmtinMY2011/12,up3.9%from92.6mmtin
MY2010/11,andup10.9%from86.8mmtinMY2009/10.
1) Chinaup7.4%to58.0mmtfrom54.0mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom50.3mmtinMY2009/10).
o

Chinaisprojectedtoaccountfor60.3%ofWorldsoybeanimportsinMY2011/12,following58.7%inMY
2010/11and58.0%inMY2009/10.

2) EuropeanUniondown5.0%to13.3mmtfrom14.0mmtinMY2010/11,butupfrom12.3mmtinMY2009/10
3) Mexicoup1.4%to3.8mmtfrom3.7mmtinMY2010/11,andfrom3.5mmtinMY2009/10
4) Japanup1.5%to3.4mmtfrom3.35mmtinMY2010/11,butunchangedfrom3.4mmtinMY2009/10

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Chinahasadominantpositionamongglobalsoybeanimporters,accountingforover60%ofWorldsoybeanimportsinMY
2010/11.AnychangeineconomicpolicyorreductionintheabilityofChinatoaggressivelypurchasesoybeanimports
wouldhaveamarked,significantimpactuponWorldsoybeanmarkets.ChinasroleinWorldsoybeanimportmarketsis
theclassiccaseofastrongbutnarrowdemandbase.

GlobalSoybeanMealImportsareprojectedtobearecordhigh59.1mmtinMY2011/12,up2.0%from58.0
mmtinMY2010/11,andup11.3%from53.1mmtinMY2009/10.
1) EuropeanUnionup1.8%to23.3mmtfrom22.9mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom20.7mmtinMY2009/10
TheEuropeanUnionhasadominantpositionamongglobalsoybeanmealimporters,accountingfor39.4%ofWorld
soybeanmealimportsinMY2010/11.

GlobalSoybeanOilImportsareprojectedtobe8.9mmtinMY2011/12,down4.9%fromarecordhigh9.4
mmtinMY2010/11,butup2.3%from8.7mmtinMY2009/10.
1) Chinaup8.8%to1.85mmtfrom1.70mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom1.51mmtinMY2009/10
2) Indiadown20.0%to0.80mmtfrom1.00mmtinMY2010/11,anddownfrom1.60mmtinMY2009/10
3) EuropeanUniondown25.0%to0.75mmtfrom1.00mmtinMY2010/11,butupfrom0.54mmtinMY2009/10

WorldUsage
GlobalOilseedTotalUseprojectionsof389.6mmtinMY2011/12areup3.2%from377.5mmtinMY2010/11,
andup9.0%from357.6mmtinMY2009/10,showingcontinuedgrowthintotalWorldoilseedusage&few
signsofsignificantmajorpricerationingofuse.
GlobalSoybeanDomesticTotalUseprojectionsof263.2mmtinMY2011/12areup2.9%from255.8mmtin
MY2010/11,andup6.6%from238.4mmtinMY2009/10.Projectedglobalsoybeanusagewouldaccountfor
67.6%ofallWorldoilseedusageinMY2011/12,comparedto67.7%inMY2010/11and66.7%inMY2009/10.
1) Chinaup8.1%to72.5mmtfrom67.1mmtinMY2010/11,andup22.0%from59.4mmtinMY2009/10
2) UnitedStatesdown0.3%to48.2mmtfrom48.3mmtinMY2010/11,anddown4.8%from50.6mmtinMY2009/10
3)

Argentinaup2.5%to41.7mmtfrom40.7mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom35.7mmtinMY2009/10

4) Brazilup3.6%to40.5mmtfrom39.1mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom36.8mmtinMY2009/10
5) EuropeanUniondown2.7%to14.4mmtfrom14.8mmtinMY2010/11,butupfrom13.4mmtinMY2009/10
6) Mexicoup0.8%to3.84mmtfrom3.81mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom3.62mmtinMY2009/10
7) Japanup0.8%to3.60mmtfrom3.57mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom3.58mmtinMY2009/10

GlobalSoybeanMealDomesticTotalUseprojectionsof181.8mmtinMY2011/12areup4.1%from174.6
mmtinMY2010/11,andup12.9%from161.1mmtinMY2009/10.Projectedglobalsoybeanmealusage
wouldaccountfor68.9%ofalloilseedusageinMY2011/12.
1) Chinaup9.7%to48.3mmtfrom44.0mmtinMY2010/11,andup28.5%from37.6mmtinMY2009/10
2)

EuropeanUnionup1.4%to33.4mmtfrom32.9mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom30.1mmtinMY2009/10

3) UnitedStatesup0.6%to27.9mmtfrom27.8mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom27.8mmtinMY2009/10
4) Brazilup3.7%to14.0mmtfrom13.5mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom12.8mmtinMY2009/10
5) Indiaup7.3%to3.2mmtfrom3.0mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom2.8mmtinMY2009/10

GlobalSoybeanOilDomesticTotalUseprojectionsof43.7mmtinMY2011/12areup4.8%from41.7mmtin
MY2010/11,andup14.25%from38.3mmtinMY2009/10.Projectedglobalsoybeanoilusagewouldaccount
for29.0%ofalloilseedusageinMY2011/12.
1) Chinaup9.4%to12.8mmtfrom11.7mmtinMY2010/11,andup22.8%from10.4mmtinMY2009/10
2) UnitedStatesup8.1%to8.1mmtfrom7.5mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom7.2mmtinMY2009/10

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3) Brazilup4.9%to5.6mmtfrom5.3mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom5.0mmtinMY2009/10
4) EuropeanUniondown5.9%to2.9mmtfrom3.1mmtinMY2010/11,butupfrom2.4mmtinMY2009/10
5) Indiadown5.6%to2.6mmtfrom2.7mmtinMY2010/11,anddownfrom2.8mmtinMY2009/10
6) Argentinaup8.2%to2.5mmtfrom2.3mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom1.9mmtinMY2009/10

WorldEndingStocks&%EndingStockstoUse
GlobalOilseedEndingStocksprojectionsof71.1mmt(18.1%S/U)inMY2011/12aredownfrom74.7mmt
(19.8%S/U)inMY2010/11,butupfrom71.0mmt(19.8%)inMY2009/10.
AlthoughglobaloilseedendingstocksareprojectedtoincreasefromMY2009/10toMY2011/12,%endingstockstouse
isprojectedtodecreasebecauseofgrowthintheGlobaloilseedusageisexpectedtooutpacetheincreaseinendingstocks
overthesameperiod.

GlobalSoybeanEndingStocksprojectionsof61.6mmt(23.4%S/U)inMY2011/12aredownfrom64.5mmt
(25.2%S/U)inMY2010/11,butupfrom59.3mmt(24.9%S/U)inMY2009/10.
Justasforglobaloilseedendingstocksand%endingstockstouserelationships,althoughglobalsoybeanendingstocks
areprojectedtoincreasefromMY2009/10toMY2011/12,%endingstockstouseisprojectedtodecreasebecauseof
growthintheGlobalsoybeanusageisexpectedtooutpacetheincreaseinendingstocksoverthesameperiod.

Projectedglobalsoybeanendingstockswouldaccountfor86.6%ofalloilseedendingstocksinMY2011/12,
comparedto86.4%inMY2010/11and83.6%inMY2009/10.
1)

Argentinadown2.0%to21.7mmtfrom22.2mmtinMY2010/11,anddownfrom22.3mmtinMY2009/10

2) Brazildown10.0%to17.5mmtfrom19.4mmtinMY2010/11,butupfrom15.8mmtinMY2009/10
3) Chinadown3.3%to14.7mmtfrom15.2mmtinMY2010/11,butup10.9%from13.3mmtinMY2009/10
4) UnitedStatesup5.7%to5.2mmtfrom4.9mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom4.1mmtinMY2009/10

GlobalSoybeanMealEndingStocksprojectionsof6.7mmt(3.7%S/U)inMY2011/12areupmarginallyfrom
6.8mmt(3.9%S/U)inMY2010/11,butupfrom6.1mmt(3.8%S/U)inMY2009/10.Projectedglobalsoybean
mealendingstockswouldaccountfor83.8%ofalloilseedendingstocksinMY2011/12,comparedto84.0%in
MY2010/11and81.2%inMY2009/10.
1)

Brazilunchangedat2.5mmtfromMY2010/11,butupfrom2.2mmtinMY2009/10

2) Argentinaup12.8%to2.2mmtfrom2.0mmtinMY2010/11,andupfrom1.9mmtinMY2009/10
3) EuropeanUniondown28.2%to0.28mmtfrom0.39mmtinMY2010/11,butupfrom0.13mmtinMY2009/10
4) UnitedStatesunchangedat0.27mmtfromMY2010/11andfromMY2009/10
5) Indiadown47.6%to0.11mmtfrom0.21mmtinbothMY2010/11andMY2009/10

GlobalSoybeanOilEndingStocksprojectionsof2.4mmt(5.4%S/U)inMY2011/12aredownfrom3.1mmt
(7.5%S/U)inMY2010/11,anddownfrom3.3mmt(8.5%S/U)inMY2009/10.Projectedglobalsoybeanoil
endingstockswouldaccountfor24.6%ofalloilseedendingstocksinMY2011/12,comparedto27.9%inMY
2010/11and25.1%inMY2009/10.
1)

UnitedStatesdown23.4%to0.98mmtfrom1.28mmtinMY2010/11,anddownfrom1.52mmtinMY2009/10

2) EuropeanUniondown23.1%to0.20mmtfrom0.26mmtinMY2010/11,anddownfrom0.28mmtinMY2009/10
3) Brazilunchangedat0.26mmtinMY2010/11,anddownfrom0.35mmtinMY2009/10
4) Argentinadown13.6%to0.19mmtfrom0.22mmtinMY2010/11,butupfrom0.18mmtinMY2009/10
5) Chinaunchangedat0.18mmtfromMY2010/11,butdownfrom0.21mmtinMY2009/10
6) Indiadown66.7%to0.09mmtfrom0.27mmtinMY2010/11,anddownfrom0.28mmtinMY2009/10

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