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A report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement of MBA program of Dr. H. S. Gour Central University
Submitted to:
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
TITLE OF THE STUDY :-
:-
45 days
OBJECTIVE OF STUDY
To know the basic terminology of stock market. To make the investor aware about the factors which may affect their investment. To get the knowledge of other markets such as commodity market and derivatives. To know the ups and downs of stock market of last two years. To forecast or predict the future trend of stock market which helps in investment. To know the effect of these fluctuation on the Indian economy.
TYPE OF RESEARCH
Research
Research is defined as human activity based on intellectual application in the investigation of matter. The primary purpose for applied research is discovering, interpreting, and the development of methods and systems for the advancement of human knowledge on a wide variety of scientific matters of our world and the universe. Research can use the scientific method, but need not do so. Scientific research relies on the application of the scientific method, a harnessing of curiosity. This research provides scientific information and theories for the explanation of the nature and the properties of the world around us. It makes practical applications possible. Scientific research is funded by public authorities, by charitable organizations and by private groups, including many companies. Scientific research can be subdivided into different classifications according to their academic and application disciplines.9In this project the research type used is descriptive because this research is the most commonly used and the basic reason for carrying out descriptive research is to identify the cause of something that is happening. For instance, this research could be used in order to find out what age group is buying a particular brand of cola, whether a company s market share differs between geographical regions or to discover how many competitors a company has in their marketplace. However, if the research is to return useful results, whoever is conducting the research must comply with strict research requirements in order to obtain the most accurate figures/results possible.
DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH
Descriptive research is used to obtain information concerning the current status of the phenomena to describe "what exists" with respect to variables or conditions in a situation. The methods involved range from the survey which describes the
status quo, the correlation study which investigates the relationship between variables, to developmental studies which seek to determine changes over time. Descriptive research can be of two types: i. Quantitative descriptive research emphasizes on what is, and makes use of quantitative methods to describe, record, analyze and interpret the present conditions. Qualitative descriptive research also emphasizes on what is, but makes use of non-quantitative research methods in describing the conditions of the present.
SCOPE OF STUDY
Derivatives Sebi Stock exchange Commodity market Stock market Securities Day trading Factor affecting Indian stock market Effect on Indian economy
LIMITATIONS
Limitations are the limiting lines that restrict the work in some way or other. In this research study also there were some limiting factors; some of them are as under:
1. Data Collection:
The most important constraint in this study was data collection as Secondary data was selected for study. Secondary data means data that are already available i.e. they refer to the data which have already been collected and analyzed by someone else.
2. Time Period:
Time period was one of the main factor as only one and half month was allotted and the topic covered in research has a wide scope. So, it was not possible to cover it in a short span of time.
3. Reliability:
The data collected in research work was secondary data, so, this puts a question mark on the reliability of this data, which a very important factor of this study as conclusion has been derived from this secondary data only.
4. Accuracy:
The facts and findings of the data cannot be accepted as accurate to some extent as firstly, secondary data was collected. Secondly, for doing descriptive research time needed to be more, because in short period you cannot cover each point accurately.
Lahore Stock Exchange was formed in 1934 and it had a brief life. It was merged with the Punjab Stock Exchange Limited, which was incorporated in 1936.
Post-independence Scenario
Most of the exchanges suffered almost a total eclipse during depression. Lahore Exchange was closed during partition of the country and later migrated to Delhi and merged with Delhi Stock Exchange. Bangalore Stock Exchange Limited was registered in 1957 and recognized in 1963. Most of the other exchanges languished till 1957 when they applied to the Central Government for recognition under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956. Only Bombay, Calcutta, Madras, Ahmedabad, Delhi, Hyderabad and Indore, the well established exchanges, were recognized under the Act. Some of the members of the other Associations were required to be admitted by the recognized stock
exchanges on a concessional basis, but acting on the principle of unitary control, all these pseudo stock exchanges were refused recognition by the Government of India and they thereupon ceased to function. Thus, during early sixties there were eight recognized stock exchanges in India (mentioned above). The number virtually remained unchanged, for nearly two decades. During eighties, however, many stock exchanges were established: Cochin Stock Exchange (1980), Uttar Pradesh Stock Exchange Association Limited (at Kanpur, 1982), and Pune Stock Exchange Limited (1982), Ludhiana Stock Exchange Association Limited (1983), Gauhati Stock Exchange Limited (1984), Kanara Stock Exchange Limited (at Mangalore, 1985), Magadh Stock Exchange Association (at Patna, 1986), Jaipur Stock Exchange Limited (1989), Bhubaneswar Stock Exchange Association Limited (1989), Saurashtra Kutch Stock Exchange Limited (at Rajkot, 1989), Vadodara Stock Exchange Limited (at Baroda, 1990) and recently established exchanges - Coimbatore and Meerut. Thus, at present, there are totally twenty one recognized stock exchanges in India excluding the Over The Counter Exchange of India Limited (OTCEI) and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSEIL). The Table given below portrays the overall growth pattern of Indian stock markets since independence. It is quite evident from the Table that Indian stock markets have not only grown just in number of exchanges, but also in number of listed companies and in capital of listed companies. The remarkable growth after 1985 can be clearly seen from the Table, and this was due to the favouring government policies towards security market industry.
20,000 shareholders are, normally, put in the specified group and the balance in non-specified group. Two types of transactions can be carried out on the Indian stock exchanges: (a) spot delivery transactions "for delivery and payment within the time or on the date stipulated when entering into the contract which shall not be more than 14 days following the date of the contract" : and (b) forward transactions "delivery and payment can be extended by further period of 14 days each so that the overall period does not exceed 90 days from the date of the contract". The latter is permitted only in the case of specified shares. The brokers who carry over the outstandings pay carry over charges (cantango or backwardation) which are usually determined by the rates of interest prevailing. A member broker in an Indian stock exchange can act as an agent, buy and sell securities for his clients on a commission basis and also can act as a trader or dealer as a principal, buy and sell securities on his own account and risk, in contrast with the practice prevailing on New York and London Stock Exchanges, where a member can act as a jobber or a broker only. The nature of trading on Indian Stock Exchanges are that of age old conventional style of face-to-face trading with bids and offers being made by open outcry. However, there is a great amount of effort to modernize the Indian stock exchanges in the very recent times.
Bank of India, SBI Capital Markets, Industrial Finance Corporation of India, General Insurance Corporation and its subsidiaries and CanBank Financial Services. Trading at OTCEI is done over the centres spread across the country. Securities traded on the OTCEI are classified into:
y
Listed Securities - The shares and debentures of the companies listed on the OTC can be bought or sold at any OTC counter all over the country and they should not be listed anywhere else Permitted Securities - Certain shares and debentures listed on other exchanges and units of mutual funds are allowed to be traded Initiated debentures - Any equity holding atleast one lakh debentures of a particular scrip can offer them for trading on the OTC.
OTC has a unique feature of trading compared to other traditional exchanges. That is, certificates of listed securities and initiated debentures are not traded at OTC. The original certificate will be safely with the custodian. But, a counter receipt is generated out at the counter which substitutes the share certificate and is used for all transactions. In the case of permitted securities, the system is similar to a traditional stock exchange. The difference is that the delivery and payment procedure will be completed within 14 days. Compared to the traditional Exchanges, OTC Exchange network has the following advantages:
y
OTCEI has widely dispersed trading mechanism across the country which provides greater liquidity and lesser risk of intermediary charges. Greater transparency and accuracy of prices is obtained due to the screenbased scripless trading. Since the exact price of the transaction is shown on the computer screen, the investor gets to know the exact price at which s/he is trading.
y y
Faster settlement and transfer process compared to other exchanges. In the case of an OTC issue (new issue), the allotment procedure is completed in a month and trading commences after a month of the issue closure, whereas it takes a longer period for the same with respect to other exchanges.
Thus, with the superior trading mechanism coupled with information transparency investors are gradually becoming aware of the manifold advantages of the OTCEI.
Recognized members of NSE are called trading members who trade on behalf of themselves and their clients. Participants include trading members and large players like banks who take direct settlement responsibility. Trading at NSE takes place through a fully automated screen-based trading mechanism which adopts the principle of an order-driven market. Trading members can stay at their offices and execute the trading, since they are linked through a communication network. The prices at which the buyer and seller are willing to transact will appear on the screen. When the prices match the transaction will be completed and a confirmation slip will be printed at the office of the trading member. NSE has several advantages over the traditional trading exchanges. They are as follows:
y y
NSE brings an integrated stock market trading network across the nation. Investors can trade at the same price from anywhere in the country since inter-market operations are streamlined coupled with the countrywide access to the securities. Delays in communication, late payments and the malpractice s prevailing in the traditional trading mechanism can be done away with greater operational efficiency and informational transparency in the stock market operations, with the support of total computerized network.
Unless stock markets provide professionalised service, small investors and foreign investors will not be interested in capital market operations. And capital market being one of the major source of long-term finance for industrial projects, India cannot afford to damage the capital market path. In this regard NSE gains vital importance in the Indian capital market system.
trees in front of Mumbai s Town Hall. The location of these meetings changed many times, as the number of brokers constantly increased. The group eventually moved to Dalal Street in 1874 and in 1875 became an official organization known as The Native Share & Stock Brokers Association . In 1956, the BSE became the first stock exchange to be recognized by the Indian Government under the Securities Contracts Regulation Act.
The Bombay Stock Exchange developed the BSE Sensex in 1986, giving the BSE a means to measure overall performance of the exchange. In 2000 the BSE used this index to open its derivatives market, trading Sensex futures contracts. The development of Sensex options along with equity derivatives followed in 2001 and 2002, expanding the BSE s trading platform.
Historically an open-cry floor trading exchange, the Bombay Stock Exchange switched to an electronic trading system in 1995. It took the exchange only fifty days to make this transition.
TYPES OF MARKET
There are two types of market:y Primary market y Secondary market.
Primary market
The primary market is that part of the capital market that deals with the issuance of new securities. Companies, governments or public sector institutions can obtain funding through the sale of a new stock or bond issue. This is typically done through a syndicate of securities dealers. The process of selling new issues to investors is called underwriting. In the case of a new stock issue, this sale is an initial public offering (IPO). Dealers earn a commission that is built into the price of
the security offering, though it can be found in the prospectus. Primary markets create long term instruments through which corporate entities borrow from capital market. Features of primary markets are:
y
This is the market for new long term equity capital. The primary market is the market where the securities are sold for the first time. Therefore it is also called the new issue market (NIM). In a primary issue, the securities are issued by the company directly to investors. The company receives the money and issues new security certificates to the investors. Primary issues are used by companies for the purpose of setting up new business or for expanding or modernizing the existing business. The primary market performs the crucial function of facilitating capital formation in the economy. The new issue market does not include certain other sources of new long term external finance, such as loans from financial institutions. Borrowers in the new issue market may be raising capital for converting private capital into public capital; this is known as "going public." The financial assets sold can only be redeemed by the original holder.
Initial public offering; Rights issue (for existing companies); Preferential issue.
Secondary market
The secondary market, also called aftermarket, is the financial market where previously issued securities and financial instruments such as stock, bonds, options, and futures are bought and sold. Another frequent usage of "secondary market" is to refer to loans which are sold by a mortgage bank to investors. The term "secondary market" is also used to refer to the market for any used goods or assets, or an alternative use for an existing product or asset where the customer base is the second market (for example, corn has been traditionally used primarily for food production and feedstock, but a "second" or "third" market has developed for use in ethanol production). With primary issuances of securities or financial instruments, or the primary market, investors purchase these securities directly from issuers such as corporations issuing shares in an IPO or private placement, or directly from the federal government in the case of treasuries. After the initial issuance, investors can purchase from other investors in the secondary market. The secondary market for a variety of assets can vary from loans to stocks, from fragmented to centralized, and from illiquid to very liquid. The major stock exchanges are the most visible example of liquid secondary markets - in this case, for stocks of publicly traded companies. Exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and the American Stock Exchange provide a centralized, liquid secondary market for the investors who own stocks that trade on those exchanges. Most bonds and structured products trade over the counter, or by phoning the bond desk of one s broker-dealer. Loans sometimes trade online using a Loan Exchange.
speculator to another. It is therefore important that the secondary market be highly liquid (originally, the only way to create this liquidity was for investors and speculators to meet at a fixed place regularly; this is how stock exchanges originated, see History of the Stock Exchange). As a general rule, the greater the number of investors that participate in a given marketplace, and the greater the centralization of that marketplace, the more liquid the market. Fundamentally, secondary markets mesh the investor's preference for liquidity (i.e., the investor's desire not to tie up his or her money for a long period of time, in case the investor needs it to deal with unforeseen circumstances) with the capital user's preference to be able to use the capital for an extended period of time. Accurate share price allocates scarce capital more efficiently when new projects are financed through a new primary market offering, but accuracy may also matter in the secondary market because: 1) price accuracy can reduce the agency costs of management, and make hostile takeover a less risky proposition and thus move capital into the hands of better managers, and 2) accurate share price aids the efficient allocation of debt finance whether debt offerings or institutional borrowing.
manufacturing, transporting and selling goods. When inflation is at a low rate, the stock market responds with a surge in selling. High inflation causes investors to think that companies may hold back on spending; this causes an across the board decrease in revenue and the higher cost of goods coupled with the drop in revenue causes the stock market to drop. Deflation is when the cost of goods drops. While deflation sounds like it should be welcomed by investors, it actually causes a drop in the stock market because investors perceive deflation as the result of a weak economy.
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stocks, then the price of that particular stock increases. On the other hand if people are selling more stocks, then the price of that stock falls.
Earning/Price Ratio
Another important factor affecting stock price is the earning/price ratio. This gives you a fair idea of a company s share price when it is compared to its earnings. The stock becomes undervalued if the price of the share is much lower than the earnings of a company. But if this is the case, then it has the potential to rise in the near future. The stock becomes overvalued if the price is much higher than the actual earning
Market Cap
Never try to guess the worth of a company simply by comparing the price of the stock. You should always keep in mind that it is not the stock but the market capitalization of the company that determines the worth of the company. So market cap is another factor that affects stock price.
Foreign Markets
Economic trends in foreign markets can have an effect on the stock market in the United States, according to the article titled "Riding the Economic Roller Coaster" published in "Inc." magazine. When the economies in foreign countries are down, American companies cannot sell as many goods overseas as they used to. This causes a drop in revenue, and that can show up as a drop in the stock market. Foreign stock exchanges also have an effect on the American stock market. If foreign exchanges start to fail or experience sharp drops, then that kind of activity can cause American investors to anticipate a ripple effect, resulting in a drop in the United States stock exchange.
Interest Rates
Interest rates as established by the Federal Reserve Board and individual banks can have an affect on the stock market, according to an informational pamphlet titled "What Drives Stock Prices" published by the New York Stock Exchange. Higher interest rates mean that money becomes more expensive to borrow. To compensate for the higher interest costs, companies may have to cut back spending or lay off workers. Higher interest rates also mean that a company's
money cannot borrow as much as it used to, and this has an adverse affect on company earnings. All of this adds up to a drop in the stock market
News
When you get positive news about a company then it can increase the buying interest in the market. On the other hand, when there is a negative press release, it can ruin the prospect of a stock. In this case you should remember that news should not matter much but the overall performance of the company matters more. So, news is another factor affecting stock price.
Steel in Orissa. L&T will construct the entire coke oven and by-product plant. It will also provide detailed engineering and supply of balance of plant. L&T has also secured an order worth Rs 240 crore from Indiabulls Power for civil & structural works for coal handling plants & ash handling plant for Amravati & Nashik thermal power projects in Maharashtra. The company's bulk material handling business unit will execute this order. The project is to be executed within 23 months. L&T had on Wednesday, 22 June 2011, said its building & factories unit, a part of construction division of the company, secured orders aggregating Rs 4100 crore in Q1 June 2011 for construction of airport expansion, hospital, commercial, residential buildings including factories. On the same day, the company's special purpose vehicle (SPV) signed a Rs 2600-crore concession agreement with National Highways Authority of India for four laning road project in the state of Rajasthan. The project is scheduled to be executed within a period of 30 months. With this project, L&T currently has 16 projects in its BOT road portfolio with a total project book size of Rs 15800 crore, L&T said. L&T's net profit rose 17.3% to Rs 1686.21 crore on 12.7% increase in net sales to Rs 15078.39 crore in Q4 March 2011 over Q4 March 2010. L&T said at the time of announcing Q4 March 2011 results last month that the completion of several expansion projects underway will strengthen its position of pre-eminence in its various businesses. The company also said that intense competition and spiraling input costs may exert some pressure on the operating margin going forward. L&T said it is well positioned to sustain the revenue growth momentum in the medium term given its excellent execution capabilities, presence in diverse sectors of the economy, a healthy order book and leadership position in most of the sectors where it operates. As on 31 March 2011, L&T's order book stood at Rs 130217 crore, which is almost 3 times its net sales of Rs 43495.93 crore for the year ended March 2011, giving strong revenue visibility. The company's order inflow rose 27% in Q4 March 2011.
of the companies, it is quite natural that the profit margin of these companies will decrease. This is the reason that the buyers become susceptible about the future of the companies that are hugely dependent on oil. This uncertainty restricts the buyers to invest in these companies and as a result the price of the stocks falls that ultimately has a negative effect on the overall market scenario. But this phase is temporary as the companies adjust in the price level to make up for the increased price in the oil and maintain the profit margin. All said and done this fear for the fall in the profit margin is not practical according to the theory. In practice the effect of the price increase in the profit margin of the companies takes time. Before that could actually happen the companies take adequate measure to avoid the loss. Therefore, the influence of the rise in the price of crude oil on the stock market is basically triggered of the panic of investors rather than actual impact. But still it is always wise to wait and watch after a rise in the oil prices takes place to make investments. In this phase it comparative safer to invest in sectors that are not really dependent on oil such as software industry, banking sector, financial companies.
Volume reveals the numbers of shares traded in the market. Investors compare the volume of a stock on particular day with the average trading volume for that particular stock. For example if the price of a particular stock has risen to a significant level and broken an upper limit, it is generally thought that the stock will rise further. But if the volume of the stock is way too lower than the average trading volume that means the stock cannot go further up. This is simply because
as the volume indicates, there is not much buyer for that stock in the market. Especially the bigger buyers like mutual funds, foreign investors and financial organizations are not trading in that stock. There may be so many reasons behind this. The buyers can be susceptible about the stock and resign from buying that particular stock even if the price is increasing. This typical situation when the price is rising above average and the volume is lower than the average, might create panic among the investors and they can sell the stock in fear of downfall, that will result in further fall in the price of the stock. This is also true when the price of a stock is falling the volume is lower than the average. Therefore, it is always wise to compare the trading volume along with the price level to decide whether to buy a stock or not.