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GLOBAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH

1 July 2011

GLOBAL TRADERS' GUIDE Key data and events


US
We look for the ISM non-manufacturing index (Wednesday) to hold roughly steady in June at 54.5 (consensus: 53.7; last: 54.6). We expect a 75k increase in nonfarm payrolls in June (Friday; consensus: 90k; last: 54k) and a 100k increase in private payrolls (consensus: 105k; last: 83k), and for the unemployment rate to hold at 9.1% (consensus: 9.0%).
Marion Laboure +33 (0)1 44 58 32 64 marion.laboure@barcap.com www.barcap.com

Europe
We expect the Eurogroup ministers (Saturday) to agree on a 3-year new EU-IMF programme for Greece. This programme would involve some form of private sector involvement along the lines of the French proposal, but details on this would only be announced in the coming weeks as discussions with rating agencies and between banks and governments continue. We look for the ECB Governing Council (Thursday) to announce a 25bp increase in the policy rate, from 1.25% to 1.50% (consensus: 1.50%), alongside a widening of the "corridor" back to the more usual +/-100bp: this would mean that the deposit rate would be unchanged at 0.5%, but the marginal lending rate would be raised 50bp to 2.5%. Consistent with weak readings, notably in Germany, Spain and France, we expect May euro area retail sales to decline 1.3% m/m, after a 0.9% m/m rebound last month (Tuesday; consensus: -1.0%). We and the consensus expect the Riksbank (Tuesday) to deliver a further 25bp hike to 2.00% and remain hawkish on future policy guidance. We look for German industrial production (Thursday) to increase by 0.7% m/m in May (consensus: 0.5%; last: -0.6%) and Italian industrial production (Friday) to have declined 0.5% m/m (consensus: -0.3%; last: +1.0%). In the UK, the main event next week is the MPC meeting (Thursday). We and the consensus expect monetary policy to remain unchanged, with Bank rate of 0.5% and the Asset purchase facility at 200bn. We forecast the construction PMI (Monday) at 53.0 (consensus: 53.5, last: 54.0) and the services PMI (Tuesday) at 53.2 (consensus: 53.5; last: 53.8). We estimate industrial output (Thursday) at 1.0% m/m (consensus: 1.1%; last: -1.7%) and manufacturing output at 0.8% m/m (consensus: 1.0%; last: 1.5%). We forecast producer input prices (Friday) to have increased by 0.2% m/m (consensus: 0.0%; last: -2.0%), headline output prices to be flat (consensus: 0.1%; last: 0.2%) and core output prices to have risen by 0.1% m/m (consensus: 0.1%; last: 0.2%).

Japan
We estimate that core machinery order (Thursday) rose 2.5% m/m in May (consensus: +3.0%; last: -3.3%,). This would be equivalent to a y/y gain of 10.3% (April: -0.2%). For the current account (Friday), we forecast a surplus of JPY125bn in May (consensus: JPY306bn; last: JPY406bn), or JPY124bn in seasonally adjusted terms. Although the trade account is likely to show a wider deficit, this should be offset by a large surplus in the income account.
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Barclays Capital | Global Traders' Guide

GLOBAL ECONOMICS CALENDAR


Saturday 2 July E17: Extraordinary Eurogroup meeting (conference call) Monday 4 July US: Markets closed in observance of Independence Day UK: Halifax house price index, % m/m (3m/y) (7/7) Argentina: Government tax revenue (ARS bn; to 8/7) Uruguay: CPI, % m/m 07:15 Swi: Retail sales, % y/y 08:00 Czech Republic: Retail Sales, % y/y 08:00 Romania: Retail Sales, % y/y 08:00 Turkey: CPI, % y/y 08:30 UK: Construction PMI 09:00 E17 : PPI, % m/m (y/y) 10:00 Croatia: Real Retail Trade, % y/y 10:00 South Africa: Naamsa vehicle Sales, % y/y 09:00 Holland: DTC 30Sep2011 & 29Jun2012 12:50 France: 29Sep11, 29Dec11,28Jun2012 BTFs Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

Period Jun Jun Jun May May May Jun Jun May May P Jun

Prev 2 0.0 (-2.8) 37.4 1.4 1.8 5.9 -5.2 4.0 56.4 0.7 (6.5) 0.8 22.8

Prev 1 1.4 (-3.6) 39.7 0.3 -0.2 2.0 -5.8 4.3 53.3 0.7 (6.6) -2.0 8.0

Latest 0.1 (-4.2) 50.6 0.3 7.5 2.7 -6.2 7.2 54.0 0.7 (6.3) 3.7 6.1

Forecast Consensus 0.3 2.1 7.8 53.0 -0.1 (6.3) 0.0 (-4.2) 0.3 3.7 53.5 -0.1 (6.3) 2.5/7bn 4.5+1+2.5bn

Tuesday 5 July Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus France: French FM Lagarde and Bank of France Governor Noyer speak at annual Europlace international financial forum Germany: German constitutional court hearing on lawsuit against bailout packages 04:30 Australia: interest rate announcement, % Jul 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 07:30 Sweden: Interest rates announcement, % Jul 1.50 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00 08:00 E17: ECB Economics conf. on Emerging Europe "From Crisis to Recovery: Old and New challenges in Emerging Europe" (to 6/7) 13:00 Hungary: Central Bank Minutes Singapore: Electronics PMI Jun 51.3 53.0 51.4 50.9 51.1 Chile: Economic activity index, % y/y May 6.9 15.3 6.3 6.8 Uruguay: Unemployment rate, % May 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.5 Colombia: CPI, % m/m Jun 0.27 0.12 0.28 0.18 0.2 Colombia: PPI, % m/m Jun 0.93 0.2 0.6 Hungary: Budget Balance YTD, HUF bn Jun -742 -666 -724 Kazakhstan: International Reserves, USD bn Jun 35.2 37.0 36.0 Russia: CPI, % y/y Jun 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 Russia: Trade Balance, USD bn May 17.4 17.3 19.3 18.4 01:00 Philippines: CPI, % y/y Jun 4.3 4.3 4.5 5.0 4.7 02:00 Japan: Labor cash earnings, % y/y May 0.3 -0.1 -1.4 -0.6 07:13 Spain: Services PMI, index Jun 48.7 50.4 50.9 49.0 07:43 Italy: Services PMI, index Jun 53.3 52.2 50.1 49.0 49.9 62.9 62.5 56.7 P 07:48 France: Final services PMI, index Jun 56.7 56.7 56.8 56.1 58.3 P 07:53 Germany: Final services PMI, index Jun 58.3 58.3 56.7 56.0 54.2 P 07:58 E17: Final services PMI, index Jun 54.2 54.2 57.8 55.8 53.6 P 07:58 E17: Final composite PMI, index Jun 53.6 53.6 08:00 Romania: Net Wages, % y/y May 0.2 -1.1 4.3 08:00 Taiwan: CPI, % y/y Jun 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.8 08:00 Taiwan: Exports, % y/y (to 7/7) Jun 16.3 24.6 9.5 18.5 19.1 08:28 UK: Services PMI Jun 57.1 54.3 53.8 53.2 53.5 09:00 E17: Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) May 0.2 (1.1) -0.8 (-1.5) 0.9 (1.1) -1.3 -1.0 10:30 South Africa: SACCI Business Confidence Jun 88.3 86.9 85.8 -0.3 3.8 -0.8 0.9 1.0 14:00 US: Factory orders, %m/m May 02:00 Japan: 10y JGB Auction 2200bn 09:00 Austria:4y & 11y RAGB Auctions 1.65bn 09:30 Belgium : 20Oct11, 15Dec11 3.0bn 09:30 UK: 10y Gilt Auction 3.5bn 15:30 US: 13w & 26w T-bill $27bn+24bn Wednesday 6 July Period E17: ECB Economics conference on Emerging Europe (final day) Global: WTO trade policy review of EU in Geneva Poland: Interest rate announcement, % Jul Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.50

4.50

Note: All times reported in GMT. Some data or events are boxed to indicate their importance to financial markets. Market events are highlighted in light blue.

1 July 2011

Barclays Capital | Global Traders' Guide


Wednesday 6 July Egypt: Gross Official Reserves, USD bn Ukraine: CPI, % y/y Ukraine: Official Reserve Assets, USD bn 07:00 Spain: Industrial production (wda), % y/y 08:00 E17: Publication of the MFI interest rate statistics 08:00 E17: Final GDP, % q/q 10:00 Germany: Factory orders, %m/m (y/y) 14:00 US: ISM non-manufacturing index 09:00 Germany: 2y Schatz Auction 09:30 UK: 2027 Linker Auction 09:30 Portugal: BT 21Oct2011 15:30 US: 4w & 52w T-bill Period Jun Jun Jun May Q1 May Jun Prev 2 30.1 7.7 36.4 3.6 0.4 1.9 (19.6) 57.3 Prev 1 28 9.4 38.4 -0.4 0.3 -2.7 (10.1) 52.8 Latest 27.2 11 37.9 -1.6 0.8 P 2.8 (10.5) 54.6 Forecast Consensus 11.9 11.6 0.9 -1.3 (8.7) 54.5 -0.1 (10.0) 53.7 4bn 1.1bn 0.5/1bn $30+24bn

Thursday 7 July Period Prev 2 Serbia: Interest rate announcement, % Jul 12.50 Jul 0.5 11:00 UK: BoE Bank Rate decision, % 11:00 UK: BoE asset purchase decision, bn Jul 200 Jul 1.00 11:45 E17: ECB Interest rate announcement, % Jul 12:30 E17: ECB Press Conference 16:30 US: Kansas City Fed President Hoenig (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Ada, Oklahoma 18:00 Malaysia: Interest rate announcement, % May 2.75 23:00 Peru: Interest rate announcement, % Jul 4.00 Greece: HICP, % y/y Jun 4.3 Chile: Trade balance, USD mn Jun 1194 00:50 Japan: Core machinery order, % m/m May 1.7 06:45 France: Trade balance, bn May -6.4 07:00 South Africa: Net Reserves, USD bn Jun 44.7 07:15 Swi: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Jun 0.6 (1.0) 07:30 Neth: HICP, % m/m (y/y) Jun 1.4 (2.0) 08:00 Czech Republic: Trade Balance, CZK bn May 13.9 08:00 Hungary: Industrial Production (wda), % y/y May P 14.6 08:00 Norway: Ind prod, manufacturing, % m/m (y/y) May -0.2 (2.0) May -1.4 (1.9) 08:30 UK: Industrial output, % m/m (y/y) May -0.2 (4.7) 08:30 UK: Manufacturing output, % m/m (y/y) 09:00 Bulgaria: Industrial Production (wda), % y/y May 15.4 09:00 Bulgaria: Retail Trade, % y/y May -0.1 10:00 Germany: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y; to 12/7) May 1.7 (15.2) 11:00 Brazil: IGP-DI, % m/m Jun 0.6 12:00 Brazil: IPCA, % m/m Jun 0.8 203 12:15 US: ADP private payrolls, chg, thous Jun 430 (426) 12:30 US: Initial jobless claims, thous (4wk mvg avg) 01-Jul 14:00 Mexico: CPI, % m/m Jun 0.2 02:00 Japan: 30y JGB Auction 08:30 Spain: 5y SPGB Auctions 08:50 France: 9y, 10y and 18y OAT Auctions

Prev 1 12.50 0.5 200 1.25

Latest 12.00 0.5 200 1.25

Forecast Consensus 12.00 0.5 0.5 200 200 1.50 1.50

2.75 4.25 3.7 1582 1.0 -5.9 46.0 0.1 (0.3) 0.6 (2.2) 21.3 9.2 0.9 (3.0) 0.2 (0.0) 0.2 (2.2) 6.1 1.4 1.2 (11.7) 0.5 0.8 177 420 (426) 0.0

3.00 4.25 3.1 1792 -3.3 -7.1 45.9 0.0 (0.4) 0.1 (2.4) 12.6 9.7 -1.1 (0.6) -1.7 (-1.2) -1.5 (1.3) 9.4 0.5 -0.6 (9.6) 0.0 0.5 38 429 (427) -0.7

3.25 4.25 2.9 200 2.5 -5.7 45.8 -0.2 (0.6) -0.6 (2.5) 0.2 (3.4) 1.0 (-0.6) 0.8 (1.9) 0.7 (7.2) -0.2 0.1 425 (426) -0.1

4.25 3.0 -6.0 0.0 (0.8) -0.5 11.0 1.1 (-0.5) 1.0 (2.1) 0.5 (7.0) -0.1 0.1 60 700bn 3.5bn 8bn

Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Friday 8 July E17: French FM Lagarde and ECB President Trichet attend annual Aix-en-provence economic forum Global: IMF board decides on next tranche in Greece 07:00 E17: Bank of France Governor Noyer speaks at a conference on microfinance Jul 4.50 4.50 4.50 14:00 Mexico: Interest rate announcement, % 17:45 E17: ECB Executive Board member Bini Smaghi speaks at an event organised by the Hellenic Foundation 00:50 Japan: Current account total, JPY bn May 1641 1679 406 00:50 Japan: Bank loans, % y/y Jun -1.7 -0.9 -0.7 05:45 Swiss: Unemployment rate (adj), % Jun 3.3 3.1 3.0 06:00 Germany: Trade Balance sa, bn May 11.8 11.3 15.2 06:30 France: BdF Business Sentiment, index (to 12/7) Jun 110 106 103 06:45 France: Budget, year-to date, bn May -28.0 -33.6 -61.4 07:30 Sweden: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) May 3.2 (18.5) 0.9 (15.0) 0.7 (12.0)

Forecast Consensus

4.50 125 -0.5 12.1 104 1.2 (10.9)

4.50 306 -0.5 2.9 11.8 -

Note: All times reported in GMT. Some data or events are boxed to indicate their importance to financial markets. Market events are highlighted in light blue.

1 July 2011

Barclays Capital | Global Traders' Guide


Friday 8 July 08:00 Czech Republic: Industrial Output, % y/y 08:00 Hungary: Trade Balance, EUR bn 08:00 Romania: Industrial Output, % y/y 08:00 Turkey: Industrial Production (nsa), % y/y 08:00 Italy: Industrial production, % m/m 08:30 UK: PPI input prices, % m/m (y/y) 08:30 UK: PPI output prices, % m/m (y/y) 08:30 UK: PPI core output prices, % m/m (y/y) 12:00 Chile: CPI, % m/m 12:00 Chile: CPI ex-perish. & fuel , % m/m 12:30 US: Nonfarm payrolls, chg, thous 12:30 US: Private nonfarm payrolls, chg, thous 12:30 US: Unemployment rate, % 12:30 US: Average hourly earnings, % m/m (y/y) 12:30 US: Average weekly hours 14:00 US: Wholesale inventories, % m/m 19:00 US: Consumer credit, $ bn Period May May P May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun May May Prev 2 13.0 0.8 12.7 13.9 1.5 (2.8) 3.8 (14.8) 1.1 (5.6) 0.5 (3.1) 0.8 0.4 194 219 8.8 0.0 (1.8) 34.3 1.0 6.5 Prev 1 9.2 0.8 7.4 10.2 0.7 (3.6) 2.8 (17.9) 1.0 (5.5) 0.8 (3.6) 0.3 0.3 232 251 9.0 0.1 (1.8) 34.4 1.3 4.8 Prev 1 Latest 4.7 0.5 6.3 8.3 1.0 (3.7) -2.0 (15.7) 0.2 (5.3) 0.2 (3.4) 0.4 0.3 54 83 9.1 0.3 (1.8) 34.4 0.8 6.2 Latest Forecast Consensus 7.3 8.0 -0.5 (2.1) -0.3 0.2 (16.4) 0.0 (16.2) 0.0 (5.5) 0.1 (5.5) 0.1 (3.3) 0.1 (3.1) 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 75 90 100 105 9.1 9.0 0.1 (1.9) 0.2 34.4 34.4 0.8 0.6 2.5 5.0 Forecast Consensus

Period Prev 2 Sunday 10 July 22:00 E17: ECB President Trichet speaks annual Aix-en-provence economic forum in France Monday 11 July Period EU: Eurogroup meeting 09:30 Global: OECD Secretary General Gurria speaks at Joint Vienna institute Ireland: HICP, % m/m (y/y) (to 12/7) Jun 00:50 Japan: M2/M3, % y/y May 06:45 France: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) May 08:00 Norway: CPI, % m/m (% y/y) Jun 23:01 UK: RICS house price balance Jun 23:01 UK: BRC total sales, % y/y Jun 02:00 Japan: Liquidity Enhancement Auction 09:00 Germany: New 6m Bubill11Jan2012 12:50 France: 29Sep11, 29Dec11,28Jun2012 BTFs 15:30 US: 13w & 26w T-bill Tuesday 12 July Japan: Interest rate announcement, % EU: Ecofin meeting 18:00 US: Minutes of FOMC meeting released 00:50 Japan: Tertiary industry index, % m/m 00:50 Japan: CGPI, % y/y 05:30 France: HICP, % m/m (y/y) 05:30 France: CPI, % m/m (y/y) 05:30 France: CPI ex tobacco index 06:00 Germany: Final HICP, % m/m (y/y) 06:00 Germany: Final CPI, % m/m (y/y) 07:30 Sweden: CPI Headline, % m/m (y/y) 07:30 Sweden: CPIF, % m/m (y/y) 08:30 UK: CPI, % m/m (y/y) 08:30 UK: RPI, % m/m (y/y) 08:30 UK: RPIx, % m/m (y/y) 08:30 UK: Visible trade balance, bn 09:00 Portugal: HICP, % m/m (y/y) 12:30 US: Trade balance, $ bn 08:00 Netherlands: 10y DSL Auction 09:00 Greece: 26w t-bill 09:00 Italy: 12m BOT (16Jul12) 09:30 Belgium: 12m BOT (16Jul12) 15:30 US: 4w -bill 17:00 US: 3y Note Auction Period Jul 21-22 Jun May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun May Jun May Prev 2

Prev 1

Latest

Forecast Consensus

0.5 (1.2) 2.6/1.9 0.4 (5.8) 0.3 (1.0) -23.0 -1.9

0.3 (1.5) 2.7/2.1 -1.1 (3.2) 0.5 (1.3) -21.0 6.9

0.0 (1.2) 2.7/2.1 -0.3 (2.6) -0.2 (1.6) -28 -0.3

0.1 (1.4) 0.5 -

300bn 4bn 4.5+1+2.5bn $27bn+24bn

Prev 2 0.1

Prev 1 0.1

Latest 0.1

Forecast Consensus 0.1 0.1

0.8 2.0 0.9 (2.2) 0.8 (2.0) 121.90 0.3 (2.7) 0.2 (2.4) 0.7 (2.9) 0.4 (1.5) 0.3 (4.0) 0.5 (5.3) 0.5 (5.4) -6.9 1.6 (3.9) -46.0

-5.9 2.5 0.4 (2.2) 0.3 (2.1) 122.32 -0.2 (2.4) 0.0 (2.3) 0.4 (3.3) 0.4 (1.8) 1.0 (4.5) 0.8 (5.2) 0.9 (5.3) -7.7 0.6 (4.0) -46.8

2.6 2.2 0.1 (2.2) 0.1 (2.0) 122.40 0.0 (2.4) P 0.1 (2.3) P 0.2 (3.3) 0.1 (1.7) 0.2 (4.5) 0.3 (5.2) 0.3 (5.3) -7.4 -0.1 (3.7) -43.7

-0.1 (3.2) -0.1 (1.6) -43.5

2.5bn 42bn 7.5bn 3bn $30bn $31bn

Note: All times reported in GMT. Some data or events are boxed to indicate their importance to financial markets. Market events are highlighted in light blue.

1 July 2011

Barclays Capital | Global Traders' Guide


Wednesday 13 July Period Prev 2 Prev 1 EU: EU bank stress tests release ? 14:00 US: Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House Jun 0.9 (3.5) -0.1 (3.4) 07:00 Spain: Final HICP, % y/y May 08:30 UK: Average earnings, % 3m/y 2.2 2.5 May 08:30 UK: Core average earnings, % 3m/y 2.1 2.1 Jun 6.4 16.9 08:30 UK: Claimant count unemployment, k May 08:30 UK: ILO unemployment rate, % 7.8 7.7 09:00 E17: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) May 0.6 (7.8) 0.0 (5.8) 12:30 US: Import price index, % m/m (y/y) Jun 3.0 (10.3) 2.1 (11.4) 12:30 US: Nonpetroleum import prices, % m/m (y/y) Jun 0.5 (4.3) 0.6 (4.4) 18:00 US: Treasury budget balance, $ bn Jun 33.5 ('08) -94.3 ('09) 09:00 Germany: 10y Bund Auction 17:00 US: 10y Note Auction Thursday 14 July 08:00 E17: ECB publishes monthly bulletin 06:00 Finland: HICP, % m/m (y/y) 07:00 Slovakia: HICP, % m/m ( y/y) 08:00 Austria: HICP, % y/y 08:00 Italy: Final HICP, % m/m (y/y) 08:00 Italy: Final CPI, % m/m (y/y) 09:00 E17: Final HICP, % m/m (y/y) 09:00 E17: HICP ex tobacco, index (2005 = 100) 09:00 E17: 'Eurostat' core (HICP x fd, alc, tob, ene), % m/m (y/y) 12:30 US: Retail sales, % m/m 12:30 US: Retail sales ex autos, % m/m 12:30 US: Core retail sales, % m/m 12:30 US: Initial jobless claims, thous (4wk mvg avg) 14:00 US: Business inventories, % m/m 02:00 Japan: 5y JGB Auction 09:00 Italy: 5y and 15y BTP Auctions 09:30 UK: 2040 Gilt Auction 17:00 US: 30y Bond Auction Friday 15 July Japan: Bank of Japan Publishes Minutes of June 13-14 MPM 06:00 EU 27: New car registrations, % y/y 09:00 E17: Trade balance, bn (sa) 12:30 US: CPI, % m/m (y/y) 12:30 US: Core CPI, % m/m (y/y) 12:30 US: CPI, NSA index 12:30 US: Empire State manufacturing index 13:15 US: Industrial production, % 13:15 US: Capacity utilization, % 13:55 US: U/M consumer sentiment index Period Jul Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun 08-Jul May Prev 2 0.6 (3.5) 0.4 (3.8) 1.2 (3.3) 1.0 (2.9) 0.5 (2.6) 0.6 (2.8) 112.11 1.4 (1.3) 0.8 1.2 0.6 420 (426) 0.7 Prev 1 0.2 (3.4) 0.5 (3.9) 0.6 (3.7) 0.2 (3.0) 0.1 (2.6) 0.0 (2.7) 112.75 0.5 (1.6) 0.3 0.5 0.3 429 (427) 1.3 Latest Forecast Consensus 4bn $21bn

3.0 P 1.8 2.0 19.6 7.7 0.4 (5.5) 0.2 (12.5) 0.4 (4.5) -68.4 ('10)

Latest -0.1 (3.4) 0.3 (4.2) -0.1 (3.7) 0.1 (3.0) P 0.1 (2.7) P (2.7) P 112.74 0.0 (1.5) -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.8

Forecast Consensus 2500bn 5bn 2bn $13bn

Period Jun May Jun Jun Jun Jul Jun Jun Jul p

Prev 2 -5.0 -2.7 0.5 (2.7) 0.14 (1.2) 223.467 21.7 0.6 76.8 69.8 Prev 2

Prev 1 -4.1 -2.2 0.4 (3.2) 0.19 (1.3) 224.906 11.88 0.0 76.7 74.3 Prev 1

Latest 7.1 -2.9 0.2 (3.6) 0.29 (1.5) 225.964 -7.79 0.1 76.7 71.8 Latest

Forecast Consensus -

Saturday 16 July Period EU: EU Finance Ministers and central bank governors due to meet in Poland

Forecast Consensus

Note: All times reported in GMT. Some data or events are boxed to indicate their importance to financial markets. Market events are highlighted in light blue.

1 July 2011

Barclays Capital | Global Traders' Guide

KEY OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES


US Current Previous Date Type 0.00 - 0.25 1.00 16 Dec 08 Fed funds JP 0.0-0.1 0.30 5 Oct 10 O/n Call Tgt EURO 1.25 1.00 7 Apr 11 Refi UK 0.50 1.00 5 Mar 09 Bank Rate SWE 1.75 1.50 20 Apr 11 Repo SWISS 0.00 - 0.75 0.00 - 1.00 12 Mar 09 Mid Target CN 1.00 0.75 8 Sep 10 Overnight AUS 4.75 4.50 2 Nov 10 Cash DK 1.30 1.05 8 Apr 11 Lending NOK 2.00 1.75 5 May 10 Cash

GLOBAL KEY EVENTS


Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Forthcoming central bank announcement dates North America FOMC meeting 9 20 1 FOMC minutes 13 30 11 23 Congressional testimony Jul Fed's Beige Book 27 7 19 30 Bank of Canada 19 7 25 Europe 6 3 ECB "policy" meeting 7 4 8 ECB monthly bulletin 14 11 15 13 10 21 21 20 17 ECB "non-policy" meeting Bank of England 6-7 3-4 7-8 5-6 9-10 BoE Inflation Report 10 16 BoE minutes 20 17 21 19 23 Riksbank 5 7 27 SNB 15 Norges Bank 10 21 19 Asia/RoW Bank of Japan 11-12 4-5 6-7 6-7, 27 15-16 BoJ minutes 15 10 12 13 1, 21 Reserve Bank of Australia 5 2 6 4 1 RBNZ 15 Key international meetings ECOFIN 12, 22 - 1,16-17* 4 8, 18,30 G20 25-27 16 3-4 Elections Tunisia (Legislative) 24 Singapore (Presidential) Aug Egypt (Parliamentary/Presidential) Sep Nov Argentina (Presidential) Oct Ireland (Presidential) Oct Switzerland (Parliamentary) Oct Nov New Zealand (Parliamentary/Referen Denmark (Parliamentary) Nov Russia (Parliamentary) Finland (Presidential) Dec Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12

13 6 8 15 22 7-8 21 20 15 14 20-21 27 6 8 Dec -

24-25 3 Jan Jan 12 19 26 4-5 18 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Jan

Feb 9 16 23 8-9 15 22 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -

Mar Mar Mar 8 15 21 7-8 21 n/a n/a 14 n/a n/a n/a 8 n/a n/a -

Apr Apr Apr Apr 4 11 19 4-5 18 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -

May May 3 10 16 9-10 16 23 n/a n/a 10 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -

Jun Jun 6 13 20 6-7 20 n/a n/a 20 n/a n/a n/a 14 n/a n/a -

Jul Jul Jul Jul 5 12 19 4-5 18 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -

Sources for all charts: Central banks, IMF, European Commission, Reuters, Bloomberg, Market News, Barclays Capital

1 July 2011

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