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ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) (7.5) (6.6) 0.9 1QFY11 167 104 58 % chg (yoy) 22.5 37.1 41.2
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 1QFY2012, South Indian Bank (SIB) reported healthy net profit growth of 41.2% yoy (flat sequentially) to `82cr, slightly below our estimates of `86cr. However, NIM compression was higher than expected, which was compensated by higher treasury gains and lower-than-estimated provisions. Key highlights of the results were strong balance sheet growth but with substantial NIM compression and largely stable asset quality. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock. Healthy business growth but NIM disappoints: The banks business growth continued to register strong traction, with advances growth at 31.2% yoy (8.1% qoq) and deposits growth at 35.5% yoy (6.4% qoq). The banks CASA deposits grew by relatively lower 16.0%, leading to compression in CASA ratio to 21.5% from 25.1% in 1QFY2011. However, CASA ratio was stable on a sequential basis. CASA deposits and low-cost NRE deposits put together formed 26.1% of deposits. The asset quality was largely stable during 1QFY2012, with absolute gross and net NPAs rising by relatively lower 2.6% and 5.8% qoq, respectively, and provision coverage ratio excluding technical write-offs at a comfortable 73.1%. Slippages were flat sequentially at 0.8% (`43cr), which were largely compensated by higher recoveries. The banks capital adequacy remains healthy at 13.5%, with tier-I CAR of 10.9%. Outlook and valuation: SIB plans to raise ~`1,000cr during FY2012, which will enable it to maintain its strong growth, especially in its gold loan business. Currently, the stock is trading at moderate valuations of 1.2x FY13E ABV. In light of capital-raising and strong expansion plans, we value the bank at 1.35x FY13E ABV and maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `26.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 9.6 38.8 51.6
3m (5.8) 4.1
Key financials
Particulars (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`)* P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%) FY2010 568 8.7 234 20.0 2.5 2.1 11.7 1.9 1.0 17.0 FY2011 791 39.2 293 25.1 2.8 2.6 9.3 1.6 1.0 18.5 FY2012E 883 11.6 347 18.6 2.6 3.1 7.9 1.4 1.0 18.9 FY2013E 960 8.7 364 5.0 2.5 3.2 7.5 1.2 0.9 17.2
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Adjusted for face value split from `10 to`1
1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) 769 610 144 15 564 205 52 37 9 15 27 257 113 69 44 143 21 3 4 14 0 122 40 82 32.6 704 557 132 15 482 222 60 47 11 14 36 282 129 76 53 153 26 (4) 9 6 15 127 45 82 35.5 9.2 9.6 8.8 0.1 16.9 (7.5) (14.6) (21.2) (11.5) 7.5 (24.1) (9.0) (12.0) (9.0) (16.2) (6.6) (21.1) (55.8) 131.6 (98.0) (3.5) (11.6) 0.9 (295)bp 540 421 110 9 373 167 42 32 8 9 24 209 105 67 37 104 17 11 0 2 3 88 29 58 33.4 42.3 44.8 31.5 56.1 51.2 22.5 23.9 13.1 15.5 62.0 12.3 22.8 8.4 2.3 19.6 37.1 24.8 (74.6) 1,430.8 526.4 (90.7) 39.5 36.1 41.2 (81)bp
% chg (9.7) 8.5 (6.6) (5.4) (7.5) (25.9) (3.4) (3.1) (3.6)
1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) 22,151 31,622 70.0 1,326 5,464 6,790 21.5 13.5 10.9 7.6 11.8 2.8 44.2 236 1.1 63 0.3 73.1 0.8 0.0 20,489 29,721 68.9 1,201 5,203 6,404 21.5 14.0 11.3 6.6 10.9 3.1 45.7 230 1.1 60 0.3 73.9 0.8 (0.1) 8.1 6.4 111bp 10.4 5.0 6.0 (7)bp (50)bp (41)bp 103bp 85bp (29)bp (148)bp 2.6 (4)bp 5.8 0bp (80)bp 6bp 8bp 16,886 23,331 72.4 1,138 4,714 5,852 25.1 16.0 13.1 6.4 10.8 2.8 50.1 223 1.3 65 0.4 71.0 0.2 31.2 35.5 (233)bp 16.5 15.9 16.0 (361)bp (248)bp (224)bp 117bp 98bp (6)bp (584)bp 6.0 (26)bp (2.0) (10)bp 217bp (14)bp
4.8
1.4
4.9
7.4
8.3
7.7
6.8
8.1
6.4
2.0 -
10.1
17.0 14.0
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
Growth in gold loan portfolio continued to be healthy, registering an increase of 12.3% on a sequential basis. Share of gold loans in loan book has now gone up to 22.9%. On a sequential incremental basis, share of gold loans stood at over 33.5%. With rising interest rates and a larger share of higher-yielding gold loans, the bank was able to improve its yield on advances by 85bp qoq and 98bp yoy to 11.8%. However, the banks reported NIM dipped by ~30bp qoq to 2.8% due to a sharp spike in cost of deposits (103bp qoq and 117bp yoy). Consequently, the banks NII was ~10% lower than our estimates despite strong business growth.
3.0 2.8
2.90
6.4
6.3
6.4
6.6
2.70
We were expecting a decline in NIM on account of rising cost of funds for the system as a whole and the banks relatively low CASA ratio; however, NIM compression was higher than our expectations. Going forward, management expects the NIMs to inch closer to 3.0% mark as assets re-pricing kicks in.
July 15, 2011
1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) 9 15 5 22 52 36.7 11 14 5 31 61 46.9 (11.5) 7.5 (8.7) (27.7) (15.1) (21.8) 8 9 4 20 42 32.5 15.5 62.0 19.3 10.6 23.8 13.0
223 65
228 67
254 74
230 60
236 63
75
60.0 55.0
13.1
13.1
12.3
11.3
10.9
Investment arguments
Strong business growth
The bank grew its advances and deposits at a strong rate of 27.1% and 29.2% yoy, respectively, in FY2011. Business growth has further accelerated in 1QFY2012, with advances growing by 31.2% yoy and deposits rising by 35.5% yoy. Gold loan portfolio of the bank has increased at an 84% CAGR over FY200911 to reach `4,633cr. The gold loan portfolio has continued its pace in 1QFY2012 and now constitutes ~22.9% of the overall loan book. The bank had indicated plan to set up a gold loan NBFC to tap customers who are willing to pay higher interest rates in lieu of higher LTVs and faster service. For this, the bank was planning to deploy ~`300cr of the QIP proceeds towards the NBFC to capitalise on the opportunity currently being exploited by players such as Muthoot and Mannapuram. However the bank has put the gold loan NBFC plan on hold as of now, considering the uncertain regulatory environment for NBFCs. The `1,000cr QIP amounts to 59.0% of FY2011 net worth, which will provide the bank with substantial capital to maintain its strong growth. We have not factored in the impact of raising ~`1,000cr funds at present; however, if any QIP is done at the CMP, the book value as of FY2013E could see an increase of ~7.0%
Earlier estimates FY2012 18.0 14.0 21.8 2.6 5.2 7.5 15.0 1.1 0.3 FY2013 18.0 14.0 22.0 2.5 15.6 15.0 15.0 1.1 0.3
Revised estimates FY2012 20.0 14.0 21.8 2.6 6.4 7.5 15.0 1.1 0.3 FY2013 18.0 15.0 21.8 2.5 15.6 15.0 15.0 1.1 0.3
Earlier estimates
892 207 1,099 510 589 67 522 169 353
FY2013 Revised Earlier Revised Var. (%) Var. (%) estimates estimates estimates
883 209 1,092 510 582 68 514 167 347 (1.0) 1.2 (0.6) (1.2) 2.1 (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) 964 239 1,203 587 617 75 542 176 366 960 242 1,202 587 615 76 539 175 364 (0.5) 1.2 (0.1) (0.3) 1.1 (0.5) (0.5) (0.5)
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
FY2011-13E EPS CAGR (%) 21.0 20.2 30.4 24.5 11.6 19.2 9.2 3.1 10.5 21.6 1.0 (10.9) 6.1 5.1 14.3 10.4 23.5 8.8 13.7 11.7 44.2 14.6 18.9 21.0 6.1 8.6
FY2013E RoA (%) 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.4 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5
FY2013E RoE (%) 21.0 14.1 20.9 15.6 17.2 20.6 17.8 16.8 19.5 18.5 18.1 15.1 17.9 15.7 14.5 20.4 16.6 17.0 15.8 21.3 22.6 17.0 17.6 18.1 12.5 12.8
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), Without adjusting for SASF
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. and Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY07 368 18.5 122 68.1 489 27.9 219 (1.4) 270 68.4 124 41.5 146 100.7 42 28.9 104 89.5 FY08 394 7.2 143 17.3 537 9.7 248 13.4 289 6.8 57 (54.0) 232 58.3 80 34.6 152 45.6 FY09 523 32.7 164 15.2 687 28.0 328 32.4 359 24.3 57 0.7 301 30.0 107 35.4 195 28.4 FY10 568 8.7 208 26.9 777 13.0 366 11.5 411 14.5 43 (24.5) 367 21.9 134 36.4 234 20.0 FY11 791 39.2 197 (5.6) 988 27.2 463 26.3 525 27.9 80 84.4 446 21.3 153 34.3 293 25.1 FY12E 883 11.6 209 6.4 1,092 10.6 510 10.3 582 10.8 68 (14.2) 514 15.3 167 32.4 347 18.6 FY13E 960 8.7 242 15.6 1,202 10.0 587 15.0 615 5.7 76 10.8 539 5.0 175 32.4 364 5.0
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserve & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash balances Bank balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY07 70 654 27.8 33 174 483 700 1,246 3,430 24.3 90 268 26.1 FY08 90 1,071 23.8 28 155 590 974 729 4,572 32.0 113 249 25.2 FY09 113 1,191 19.4 257 155 571 998 1,038 6,075 13.3 136 284 19.2 FY10 113 1,372 27.2 1 330 706 1,391 597 7,156 33.6 153 415 25.3 FY11 113 1,734 29.2 25 265 962 1,828 638 8,924 29.5 357 585 28.5 FY12E 113 2,009 33,882 14.0 29 302 1,080 37,415 2,202 748 8,805 24,586 20.0 407 667 37,415 14.0 FY13E 113 2,294 38,964 15.0 33 347 1,275 43,027 2,533 861 9,388 29,012 18.0 468 767 43,027 15.0
10
Ratio Analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA ratio Credit/Deposit ratio Net worth/ Assets CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages NPA prov / avg. assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.3 2.2 0.7 3.0 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.9 18.2 15.5 2.6 0.4 2.2 0.2 2.4 0.7 3.1 1.6 1.5 0.5 1.0 16.6 16.4 2.8 0.3 2.5 0.2 2.7 0.7 3.4 1.8 1.6 0.6 1.0 15.4 16.0 2.5 0.2 2.3 0.3 2.6 0.6 3.2 1.6 1.6 0.6 1.0 16.7 17.0 2.7 0.3 2.4 0.1 2.6 0.5 3.1 1.6 1.5 0.5 1.0 18.4 18.5 2.5 0.2 2.3 0.1 2.4 0.5 2.9 1.5 1.5 0.5 1.0 19.2 18.9 2.4 0.2 2.2 0.1 2.3 0.5 2.8 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.9 19.0 17.2 16.4 2.4 1.0 14.4 1.9 1.2 14.0 2.2 1.2 11.7 1.9 1.7 9.3 1.6 2.1 7.9 1.4 2.3 7.5 1.2 2.5 1.5 10.0 0.2 1.7 12.6 0.3 1.7 10.8 0.3 2.1 12.9 0.4 2.6 15.0 0.5 3.1 16.9 0.6 3.2 19.4 0.6 3.9 1.0 2.2 0.7 75.8 1.8 0.3 0.7 0.1 82.0 2.2 1.1 1.6 0.1 48.4 1.3 0.4 1.5 0.2 70.8 1.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 73.9 0.9 0.3 1.1 0.1 72.5 0.8 0.2 1.1 0.1 72.1 23.9 64.7 18.2 11.1 8.8 24.1 69.0 16.6 13.8 12.1 23.8 65.5 15.4 14.8 13.2 23.1 68.8 16.7 15.4 12.4 21.5 68.9 18.4 14.0 11.3 21.8 72.6 19.2 12.9 10.6 21.8 74.5 19.0 12.8 10.6 3.1 44.8 0.9 15.5 2.6 46.2 1.0 16.4 2.9 47.8 1.0 16.0 2.5 47.1 1.0 17.0 2.8 46.8 1.0 18.5 2.6 46.7 1.0 18.9 2.5 48.8 0.9 17.2 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Returns):
12