Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 38

Principles of Project Management

Presented By:

Hisham Rafik, MBA, PMP

Course Outline
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Project Management Framework Project Initiation Project Planning - Scope Definition Project Planning - Schedule Development Project Planning - Risk Management Project Planning - Budgeting

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

Section 5
Managing Risk in projects

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

Project Planning Process


Scope Definition Schedule Development Risk Management Plan Budgeting Plan Compilation and Approvals

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

Risk defined
Risk = An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a Positive or Negative effect on a project objective The severity of any risk can be defined in terms of two parameters: Likelihood (Probability): The extent to which the risk effects are likely to occur. Impact (Consequence): The effect that a risk will have on the project if it occurs.
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 5

Project risk management


Is the systematic process of Identifying, Analyzing, and Responding to project risks

Maximizing the probability and consequences of positive events (Opportunities) to Project Objectives AND Minimizing the probability and consequences of adverse events (Threats) to Project Objectives
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 6

Project Risk Management Processes


Planning
11.1 Risk Management Planning

Controlling

11.3 Qualitative Risk Analysis

11.2 Risk Identification

11.5 Risk Response Planning

11.6 Risk Monitoring & Control

11.4 Quantitative Risk Analysis

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

11.1. Risk Management Planning


The process of deciding how to approach and conduct the risk management activities for a project Should be completed early during project planning
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 8

Risk Management Planning


Inputs
1. Enterprise environmental factors 2. Organizations process assets 3. Project scope statement 4. Project management plan
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 9

Tools & Techniques


1. Planned meetings & analysis

Outputs
1. Risk Management Plan

Risk Management Planning


Describes how risk identification, qualitative and quantitative analysis, response planning, monitoring, and control will be structured and performed during the project life cycle

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

10

Risk Management Plan


Methodology
Approaches, tools, and data sources that might be used to perform risk management

Roles & Responsibilities


Lead and support roles for each type of action in the plan

Budgeting:
Established budget for Risk Management

Timing
When and how often risk management process will be performed

Definitions of risk probability & impact Reporting Formats


Describes contents and format of Risk Response Plan

Tracking
Describes how risk activities will be recorded for current project and lessons learned
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 11

11.2. Risk Identification


Involves determining which risk events might affect the project and documenting their characteristics.

Everyone should be involved in risk identification

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

12

Risk Identification
Inputs
Enterprise environmental factors Organizations process assets Project scope statement Risk Management Plan Project management plan
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 13

Tools & Techniques


1. Documentation reviews 2. Information-gathering techniques 3. Checklists analysis 4. Assumptions analysis 5. Diagramming technique

Outputs
1. Risks register

Risk Identification Tools & Techniques: Information-Gathering Techniques


The Company Experience
Lessons Learned

Personal experience
PM and project team

Interviews with:
Project managers in and out of the organization Experts: Technological, regional

Delphi technique
Collect and manipulate inputs from experts located in different places
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 14

Risk Identification Tools & Techniques: Information-Gathering Techniques


Brain Storming sessions
PM, team and stakeholders The most frequently used

SWOT Analysis
Internal Factors
External factors Opportunities (O) Threats (T)
Knowledge 2008

Strengths (S) (SO) Growth (ST) stability


Principles of Project Management

Weaknesses (W) (WO) Cooperate (WT) Mitigation


15

Risk Identification More Tools & Techniques


Checklists analysis Sample of high level risks (or risk areas) based on historical information and knowledge that has been accumulated from previous similar projects. Actual risks should be more specific and clear Assumptions analysis Based on a set of Hypotheses, Scenarios and Assumptions. What assumptions have been made and if they are valid Diagramming technique Cause and effect diagram System or process flow charts. Influences diagram
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 16

Risk Sources
Schedule Tasks on the critical/near-critical path Optimistically estimated tasks Tasks reliant on external dependencies Resources Tasks with one individual working alone or many people Tasks using scarce resources or Under-skilled people Illness and turnover Budget Uncertainty of funds Shifts in budget priorities Uncertain resource costs Scope Uncertainty of new product development Dynamics of customer requirements
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 17

Risk Sources (another view)


INTERNAL Financial Research and Development Production Human Resources Administrative Strategic Preference EXTERNAL Economical Competition Social/Cultural Regulatory Political

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

18

Project Risk Management Risk Identification, Outputs


Risk register
List of identified risk List of potential responses Root causes of risk Updated risk categories (for use of future projects)

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

19

11.3/4. Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis


Method for prioritizing the identified risks for further actions. The process of assessing the impact and likelihood of identified risks. Should be revised during the project life cycle.

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

20

Qualitative Risk Analysis


Inputs
1. 2. 3. 4. Organizations process assets Project scope statement Risk Management Plan Risk register

Tools & Techniques


1. Risk probability & impact assessment 2. Probability & impact matrix 3. Risk data quality assessment 4. Risk categorization 5. Risk urgency assessment

Outputs
1. Risk register (updated)

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

21

Qualitative Risk Analysis - Example


Risk Event Vendor Ships early Vendor order is incomplete or misses critical parts Vendors ships more than ordered Vendor does not ship order
Knowledge 2008

Probability M H

Impact L H

L L

L H
22

Principles of Project Management

Plotting Risk Events on the Risk Event Matrix


Risk Impact

M L L
Knowledge 2008

Risk Probability
23

Principles of Project Management

Qualitative Risk Analysis, Outputs


Risk register (updates)
Relative ranking or priority list of project risks. Risks grouped by categories. List of risks requiring response in the near-term. List of risks for additional analysis and response. Watch lists of low priority risks (residual risks). Trends in qualitative risk analysis results.
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 24

Quantifying project risk


Risk event Prob. % Impact value $$ Risk value $$

Total risk value

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

25

11.5. Risk Response Planning


The process of developing options and determining actions to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the projects objectives. Risk response planning must be: Appropriate to the severity of the risk Cost effective in meeting the challenge Timely to be successful Realistic within the project context Agreed upon by all parties involved Owned by a responsive person
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 26

Risk Response Planning


Inputs
1. Risk management plan 2. Risk register

Tools & Techniques


1. Strategies for negative risk or threats 2. Strategies for positive risk or opportunities 3. Strategies for both threats and opportunities 4. Contingent response strategy

Outputs
1. 2. 3. Risk management plan Risk register Risk-related Contractual agreements

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

27

Risk Response Planning Tools & Tech.


Strategies for Negative risks (Threats)
Avoidance Mitigation Transfer Acceptance (valid for threats and opportunities)

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

28

Response Strategies for Threats


Avoidance:
Risk prevention Changing the plan to eliminate a risk by avoiding the cause/source of risk Protect project from impact of risk Examples: Change the implementation strategy Do it ourselves (do not subcontract) Reduce scope to avoid high risk deliverables Adopt a familiar technology or product
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 29

Response Strategies for Threats


Mitigation
Seeks to reduce the impact or probability of the risk event to an acceptable threshold Be proactive: Take early actions to reduce impact/probability and dont wait until the risk hits your project Examples: Staging - More testing - Prototype Redundancy planning Use more qualified resources
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 30

Response Strategies for Threats


Transfer
Shift responsibility of risk consequence to another party Does NOT eliminate risk Most effective in dealing with financial exposure Examples: Buy/subcontract: move liabilities Selecting type of Procurement contracts: Fixed Price Insurance: liabilities + bonds + Warranties

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

31

Response Strategies for Threats


Acceptance
Used when it is not possible to change project plan or unable to use other risk response strategy (i.e. when it is not possible to avoid/mitigate/transfer a risk) Active Acceptance Develop a contingency plan to execute if the risk occur Contingency plan = be ready with Plan B Passive Acceptance Deal with the risks as they occur = No Plan B prepared

Contingency allowance/ reserve


Established amount of reserve (e.g.: time and/or money) to account for the identified known risks that couldn't be avoided, mitigated or transferred Amount is decided based on probability and impact
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 32

Response Strategies for Opportunities


Exploit
Opposite of Avoidance

Enhance
Opposite of Mitigation

Share
Opposite of Transfer

Acceptance

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

33

Outputs of Risk Management


1. Risk response plan List of critical risks and the plan towards them Budget required to mitigate/transfer/avoid Contingency plans and the needed contingency reserve List of residual risks Those neglected risks will be reviewed throughout the project execution (in case impact/probability increases) Secondary risks Those new risks that arise from implementing a risk response. They should be revisited and re-incorporated in the risk response plan
Principles of Project Management 34

2.

3.

Knowledge 2008

Risk Response Plan (process output)


Risk event
Impact

Prob.

Risk value

Risk Response

Risk response cost

Early Warning Signs

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

35

Risk reserves
Contingency Reserve
Known unknowns expectable risks Accounts for: Amounts dedicated for contingency plans identified in the risk management process Residual risks that we decided to put aside when developing the risk management plan

Management Reserve
Unknown Unknowns un-expectable risks Accounts for items that we did not or could not identify in the risk management process

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

36

Risk Response Planning, Outputs


Risk register (updates)
Identified Risk Risk owner Results from qualitative and quantitative risk analysis processes Agreed response Specific action to implement the chosen response strategy Residual and secondary risk Budget and time of responses Contingency plan and triggers
Knowledge 2008 Principles of Project Management 37

Risk Management: Summary


Process: Identification, Assessment, Response Development and Control Risk Sources: Internal and external Risk Event Plotting; Risk Matrix Threat Responses: Avoid, Mitigate, Transfer and Accept Contingency Planning Risk planning Outputs Risk Response Plan + list of residual risks + secondary risks

Knowledge 2008

Principles of Project Management

38