July 21, 2011

Battleground Blues
Democrats Are Starting To Sound The Alarm: The 2012 Map Isnt As Big As Obama May Be Hoping For
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WITH BLEAK ECONOMIC PICTURES AND SAGGING POPULARITY, DEMOCRATS ARE ADMITTING THAT OBAMA HAS HIS WORK CUT OUT FOR HIM IN MANY SWING STATES
Obamas Popularity Has Eroded In The Core Battleground States, Which Will Require Untold Millions For Obama In 2012. The core battlegrounds of 2008 remain unchanged in 2012: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. All are marginal Obama states where his popularity has sagged, and will require untold millions in cash and other resources, campaign officials say. (Glenn Thrush, President Obama's
Campaign Expands Its 2012 Map, Politico, 6/8/11)

In Four States That May Prove Key To The Obama Re-Election StrategyFlorida, Nevada, North Carolina And MichiganThe Jobless Picture Is Bleak. (Sara Murray, Job Picture Set to Test Obama in Key States, The Wall
Street Journal, 6/11/11)

Obama Will Have A Hard Time In Colorado

Democratic Strategists Have Said That Keeping Colorado In Obama's Column Is A Priority Next Year. (Analysis: Tough Fight for Obama in 2012 in Some Key States Reuters, 7/20/11) Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) Obama Will Have A Hard Time Winning Colorado. Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper predicted that President Barack Obama will have to fight hard to keep his state in the Democratic column in 2012, four years after Obama thumped John McCain there by a 9-point margin. Asked whether Obama would hold Colorado if the election were held today, Hickenlooper said: It depends on who his opponent was. I think itd be a very close battle. Hed have a hard time. (Alexander Burns, John Hickenlooper: Colorado
Tough For Barack Obama, Politico, 7/16/11)

Hickenlooper: Theres Such Dissatisfaction Over People Who Have Been Out Of Work. Theres such dissatisfaction over people who have been out of work, not just for a few months but for a year and a half or two years, said Hickenlooper, a Democrat, who spoke to POLITICO at the National Governors Association meeting in Salt Lake City. (Alexander Burns, John Hickenlooper: Colorado Tough For
Barack Obama, Politico, 7/16/11)

Obama May Have To Write Off Ohio To Focus On Other States

Talk To Enough Democratic Strategists Who Have Worked In The Buckeye State And Youll Inevitably Hear Anxiety About The Presidents Standing Here. (Josh Kraushaar, Four Reasons Obama Is Probably Worried
About Reelection, National Journal, 6/29/11)

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Obamas Message That The Economy Has Been Turning A Corner Has Been Off Key With A BlueCollar Electorate That Hasnt Been Feeling Much Of A Recovery. (Josh Kraushaar, Four Reasons Obama Is Probably
Worried About Reelection, National Journal, 6/29/11)

A Leading Democratic Activist Said That, While There Will Be A Lot Of Campaigning In Ohio, He Could Also Envision A Scenario In Which The Party Wrote The State Off Early In Order To Focus Elsewhere. (Analysis: Tough Fight for Obama in 2012 in Some Key States Reuters, 7/20/11) 50 Percent Of Ohio Voters Disapprove Of The Way Obama Is Handling His Job As President. (Quinnipiac
Poll, 1659 RV, 2.4% MoE, 7/12-18/11)

58 Percent Of Ohio Voters Disapprove Of Obamas Handling Of The Economy, A New Low For Obama. (Quinnipiac Poll, 1659 RV, 2.4% MoE, 7/12-18/11)

More Of Obamas Excuses Wont Fly In Michigan

Despite Michigan Voting For A Democrat In The Last 5 Presidential Elections, Obama Is Showering Attention On The State Providing Evidence That Michigan Is In Play In 2012. Michigan has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in the past five elections. That ought to make it a solidly blue state that can be counted on to deliver again for Barack Obama in 2012. But that doesn't appear to be how the president sees things. Evidence that Michigan is in play can be found in the love the Obama administration is showering on the state. (Nolan Finley, Op-ed, Obama In Struggle To Hold Michigan, Detroit News, 7/14/11) Michigan Endured A Longer And Deeper Recession Than Anywhere Else. So It's More Desperate For The Recovery To Take Hold. (Nolan Finley, Op-ed, Obama In Struggle To Hold Michigan, Detroit News, 7/14/11)

And It Has Less Patience For Obama's Excuses For Why His Policies Aren't Creating Jobs And Growth. (Nolan Finley, Op-ed, Obama In Struggle To Hold Michigan, Detroit News, 7/14/11)

The Beads And Baubles From Team Obama Are Nice. But If He Wants To Hang On To Michigan In 2012, The President Had Better Figure Out How To Rush Us A Few Hundred Thousand Good New Jobs. (Nolan Finley, Op-ed, Obama In Struggle To Hold Michigan, Detroit News, 7/14/11)

New Mexico Will Be A Battle For Obamas Reelection Team

Obamas Reelection Will Be A Battle In New Mexico. We have a battle on our hands, a top New Mexico Democrat said. We have a new Republican, Hispanic governor [Susanna Martinez] whos going to spend as much as she can to make sure Obama cant get re-elected. (Devin Dwyer, RNC, American Crossroads Target Hispanic
Voters In Battleground States ABC News The Note," 7/20/11)

NM Democrats Will Be Struggling To Drive Hispanic Turnout In The State. Were recruiting as many Hispanics to run for local positions as we can, get them on the ballot, and hopefully drive turnout back to Democrats in 12, he said. (Devin Dwyer, RNC, American Crossroads Target Hispanic Voters In Battleground
States ABC News The Note," 7/20/11)

Pennsylvania Is Absolutely Up For Grabs

Former Democratic Governor Ed Rendell: This Is A State That Absolutely Is Up For Grabs. Nobody Should Consider Us A Blue State. Certainly, In Statewide Politics, We're A Red State. (Mike Wereschagin,
Rendell Says Pa. 'Absolutely Up For Grabs,' Pittsburgh Tribune Review, 7/1/11)

Rendell: Obama Shouldnt Assume Pennsylvania Is A Safe Bet. President Obama won't win Pennsylvania by 11 points, as he did in 2008, and Democrats shouldn't assume the state is a safe bet
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even after five consecutive presidential victories here, former Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell said Thursday. (Mike Wereschagin, Rendell Says Pa. 'Absolutely Up For Grabs,' Pittsburgh Tribune Review, 7/1/11)

As Is Iowa
Iowa Is Up For Grabs In 2012.. Whether Iowa voters are tuned in yet is hard to know. But Iowa, which went solidly for Obama in 2008, is up for grabs in 2012. (Robin Abcarian, Iowa Democrats Trying To Stay In The Game, Los Angeles
Times, 7/10/11)

The State Went Solidly For Obama In 2008, But Now Most Of The Excitement Is On The Republican Side. (Robin Abcarian, Iowa Democrats Trying To Stay In The Game, Los Angeles Times, 7/10/11) After All The Euphoria Of '08, '10 Was Such A Rude Awakening, Said Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Sue Dvorsky (Robin Abcarian, Iowa Democrats Trying To Stay In The Game, Los Angeles Times, 7/10/11) Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Sue Dvorsky: We Are Just About As Purple As Can Be. Democrats still have an edge in registrations, but as Dvorsky pointed out, the electorate of about 2 million is basically divided into thirds Democrats, Republicans and independents. We are just about as purple as can be. (Robin Abcarian, Iowa Democrats Trying To Stay In The Game, Los Angeles Times, 7/10/11) The Gap In Registered Voters Has Narrowed Considerably Since Obama Took Office, Plunging From 111,000 To 35,000. While Democrats do have an edge in registration over Republicans in the state, the gap has narrowed considerably since Obama took office, plunging from 111,000 to 35,000, according to the Iowa secretary of State's website. (Robin Abcarian, Iowa Democrats Trying To Stay In The Game, Los Angeles Times, 7/10/11)

Strategists Are Pessimistic For A Repeat Victory For Obama In North Carolina
Strategists Say North Carolina Will Be The Toughest State For Obama To Hold. When I interviewed leading Democratic and Republican strategists about the states toughest for Obama to hold, most were pessimistic about his prospects in North Carolina, a state that he won by just 14,000 votes. (Josh Kraushaar, Four
Reasons Obama Is Probably Worried About Reelection, National Journal, 6/29/11)

Obama Won North Carolina By A Razor Thin Margin In 2008, And With High Unemployment Among His Biggest Supporters, Its Hard To Foresee That Same Level Of Enthusiasm Again. Obama won the state by a razor-thin, 14,000-vote margin in 2008, thanks to record black and youth turnout. With unemployment at 9.7 percent and the recession disproportionately affecting those groups, its hard to foresee that same level of enthusiasm again. (Josh Kraushaar, The States Of Play, National Journal,
6/15/11)

The Obama Team Has Already Written Off Indiana

Obamas Advisors Say Indiana Is Out Of Reach In 2012. The early focus is on the same collection of states that Mr. Obama carried in 2008, with the exception of Indiana, which advisers believe is out of reach.
(Jeff Zeleny And Jim Rutenberg, Obama Retools 2008 Machine For Tough Run, The New York Times, 6/4/11)

No One Is Counting On Indiana, One Democratic Activist Said. (Analysis: Tough Fight for Obama in 2012 in Some Key
States Reuters, 7/20/11)

Obama May Be Setting Himself Up For Disappointment In Virginia

Obama Would Need African American Turnout To Repeat The Historic From 2008 To Win Virginia. One senior Democratic operative involved with key Virginia races believes Obama would need an AfricanAmerican turnout close to his historic 2008 levels to wina tough task in a down economy. (Josh Kraushaar, Four
Reasons Obama Is Probably Worried About Reelection, National Journal, 6/29/11)

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When Folks Start To Depend On Recreating A Specific Snapshot In Time, It Is Most Always A Disappointment, The Strategist Said. (Josh Kraushaar, Four Reasons Obama Is Probably Worried About Reelection, National
Journal, 6/29/11)

Floridas Lackluster Economy Is Spelling Trouble For Obama

Obamas Economic Record In Florida Is Not A Recipe For Success. The Sunshine States 10.7 percent unemployment rate is the nations fourth highest. Little has improved economically since the 2010 midterms, when Democrats lost the governor and Senate contests, and saw four Democratic House seats flip to the GOP. For a president who won Florida by just a three-point margin in 2008, thats not a recipe for success. (Josh Kraushaar, The States Of Play, National Journal, 6/14/11) A Lackluster Economy In Florida Has Helped Put President Obama's Job Approval Rating Under Water In The Key Swing State, A New Poll Shows. (Caitlin Huey-Burns, Poll Shows Obama Struggling In Florida, Real Clear Politics,
7/12/11)

54 Percent Of Florida Voters Disapprove Of Obamas Job Performance. (Sunshine State News Poll, 1000 LV,
3.10% MoE, 7/5-7/11)

Obamas Sinking Approval Ratings New Hampshire Dont Bode Well For His Chances In 2012
New Hampshire Best Summarizes Barack Obamas Decline In Popularity. There may not be a state that summarizes Barack Obama's decline in popularity with white voters as well as New Hampshire. (Romney
Leads Obama In New Hampshire, Public Policy Polling, 7/7/11)

His Numbers In The Granite State Speak To The Trouble He May Have Next Year In [A] State Where He Doesn't Have A Large Core Of Minority Voters To Count On To Break His Fall With Whites. (Romney Leads Obama In New Hampshire, Public Policy Polling, 7/7/11)

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