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Market

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Base Metals Slump On Chinas Manufacturing Data

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Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Economic Data
Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Fundamental Market Overview

Market
watch GOLD GAINS 1 PCT AS DEBT WORRIES PERSIST
Gold prices have risen more than 12 percent so far this year. The rise in Gold along with a firmer dollar against the euro indicated that market players were moving into safe-haven assets. The euro slipped as investors focused on how the second debt rescue package for Greece and steps to stop the European debt crisis from spreading would be implemented. U.S. negotiators have struggled to agree on terms for raising the government's $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. If talks fail by the Aug. 2 deadline, the world's biggest economy would be unable to pay its bills. U.S. President Barack Obama told a town hall meeting he was sure Congress would reach a deal to avert default. Respondents forecast a median average Gold price of $1,510 an ounce for this year, rising to $1,575 an ounce in 2012. Among other precious metals, Silver was bid at $40.06 an ounce against $39.28, having tracked Gold to 21/2-month highs earlier this week. Gold rose about 1 percent on Friday, having neared its all-time peak as reservations over a bailout plan for Greece and concerns about a lack of agreement on the U.S. debt ceiling spurred safe-haven buying. Gold is drawing strength from the European bailout plan and investor nervousness about whether this is going to result in a real resolution. Adding to the uncertainty and to investor interest in less-risky assets was a bomb attack and shooting in Norway that altogether killed at least 17 people. Spot Gold reached $1,607.01 an ounce, its highest since setting a record of $1,609.51 on Tuesday, and steadied around $1,602.76 an ounce from $1,587.90 late on Thursday. In New York, benchmark August Gold futures, which trade on the COMEX exchange, gained $14.50 to settle at $1,601.50 an ounce, a 0.91 percent rise. Prices increased slightly in after-hours trade. COMEX Gold activity was healthy with volume about 20 percent greater than the 30-day average.

Tue Jul 26

6:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm

USD USD USD USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence New Home Sales Richmond Manufacturing Index

-4.6% 58.1 321K 5

-4.0% 58.5 319K 3

Wed Jul 27

6:00pm 6:00pm 8:00pm 11:30pm

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Durable Goods Orders m/m Crude Oil Inventories Beige Book Unemployment Claims Pending Home Sales m/m Natural Gas Storage

0.5% 0.4%

0.7% 2.1% -3.7M

Market
watch

NYMEX-CRUDE ENDS AT 6-WEEK HIGH AS PRODUCTS JUMP

FUNDAMENTALS On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude for September delivery settled at $99.87 a barrel, gaining 74 cents, or 0.75 percent, the highest since June 9's close at $101.93. September Crude traded from $98.43 to $100.19, the highest intraday price since June 10's $102.15. For the week, the front month contract rose $2.63, or 2.7 percent, extending gains to a fourth straight week. UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS U.S. Consumer confidence for July, home sales for June, 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) Tuesday. U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly oil inventory data, 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.

Thu Jul 28

6:00pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

412K -1.0%

418K 8.2% 60B

U.S. Crude oil futures settled at a six-week high just below $100 a barrel on Friday, buoyed by a sharp rebound in refined product futures. A late slew of pre-weekend short-covering also pulled Crude futures higher. Gasoline and heating oil futures gained on spread trading as they tracked higher Brent Crude futures. Relief about the euro zone leaders' action to grant Greece a second bailout package contrasted with high anxiety about a deal still out of reach to avoid a U.S. debt default by Aug. 2, as talks continued in Washington President Barack Obama appealed for compromise by both Democrat and Republican parties as he and House Speaker John Boehner pursued a plan for up to $3 trillion in spending cuts.

Fri Jul 29

6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:15pm 7:25pm 8:00pm 7:25pm

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

Advance GDP q/q Advance GDP Price Index q/q Employment Cost Index q/q Chicago PMI Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Natural Gas Storage Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

1.6% 2.0% 0.5% 60.2 0.4% 64.1

1.9% 2.0% 0.6% 61.1 0.8% 63.8 3.4%

Market
watch

LONDON COPPER ENDS DOWN, SUPPLY WORRIES CAP LOSSES

$10,190 and $4.63. But analysts are beginning to question the durability of the move given the unclear demand trends seen so far this year. CPM Group's Virga said a plateau in LME open interest levels was one possible sign that the recent rally could be nearing an end. As the open interest in Copper has waned, so too has the trading volumes. A little more than 22,500 lots were traded in New York, more than 50 percent below the 30-day norm. Copper turned negative during the session as the euro slipped against the dollar as investors looked past the announcement of a second rescue package for Greece and measures to stop the debt crisis from spreading to focus on how it will be carried out. Markets are also eyeing debt talks in the United States, the world's largest economy, which have now entered crunch time. Supporting Copper, though, workers at the world's largest Copper mine, Chile's Escondida, pressed ahead with a 24-hour strike on Friday to demand that global miner BHP Billiton raise bonuses linked to lofty earnings. LME Copper stocks fell 1,725 tonnes to 472,325 tonnes, but still remain about 35 percent higher than in mid-December.

London Copper ended easier Friday, surrendering early gains alongside a backpedaling euro, while traders assessed mixed supply/demand fundamentals amid a surprisingly strong summer rally. Despite posting a third consecutive negative close, Copper still managed to eke out a mild gain for the week -- its fourth straight -- as investors betting on a second-half demand revival in China and a lower global supply base continued to add exposure even as macroeconomic fears from debt issues in Europe and the United States persisted. But signs of contraction in China's vast manufacturing sector seemed to take some heat out of the market at week's end, raising some questions about the metal-consuming giant's demand prospects in the near term and over-shadowing more production problems, this time at the world's largest Copper mine in Chile. London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark Copper closed down $10 at $9,675 a tonne. In after-hours business, prices bounced back into positive territory with firmer New York prices, trading above $9,680. In New York, the key September COMEX contract settled up 2.65 cents at $4.41 per lb, near the upper end of its $4.3750 to $4.4260 session range. Prices in both markets are up about 14 percent from their May lows and stand just 5 percent away from their mid-February peaks, at

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Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

GOLD

SILVER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 1656 1627 1614 1597 1584 1568 1538

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold was sustaining at higher levels and closed near to its weekly high. In the coming week 1580 $ will act as a major support in COMEX Gold. If COMEX Gold sustains above 1575 $ an ounce then above 1610$ an ounce it can touch the level of 1625$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1540$ then it can go slightly down and test the level of 1510$ an ounce.

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Silver is in an upward consolidation phase. Last week COMEX Silver was sustaining at higher levels and made a weekly close above 4000$ an ounce. For the upcoming week 3780$ and 3600$ are the crucial supports and 4200$ and 4350$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 61000 and 63000 will act as major resistance and 57000 and 55000 will act as major supports.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4506 4240 4126 3973 3859 3707 3440

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above 1575 $ an ounce, then above 1610$ it can test the level of 1625$ an ounce and above 1630$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses. Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1540$ and 1480$. Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1650$ and 1700$ Major support in MCX Gold is 22800 and 22400 Major resistance in MCX Gold is 23300 and 23550

STRATEGY
Technically COMEX Silver is consolidating on charts. For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 3800$ an ounce, then above 4020$ an ounce it can go up and can test the level of 4100$ an ounce. Trade by keeping the proper stop losses.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

CRUDE

COPPER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 109.25 103.75 101.81 98.25 96.31 92.75 87.25

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week Crude oil was sustaining at higher level and made a close near to week high. For the coming week 92.5$ and 88.5$ will act as major supports and 101$ and 104.50$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4500 and 4680 and major supports will be 4250 and 4100.

MARKET OVERVIEW
Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy on lower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was down for most part of the week. If next week COMEX Copper does not sustains below the level of 430 then above the level of 442 Copper can test the level of 449. In MCX Copper sustains above 435 then it can test the level of 440 if it does not break the level of 427 on the downside.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 467 454 447 441 434 429 416

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains above the level of 95.2 $ a barrel then above 98$ it can slightly come up and touch the level of 100.00 $ a barrel and in MCX if Crude sustains above 4330 then above 4470 it can touch the level of 4530.Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 450 and 460 will act as major resistance and 425 and 415 will act as major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 440 and 450 and supports would be found at 410 and 400.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

NATURAL GAS

USD / INR

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4.944 4.702 4.551 4.460 4.309 4.218 3.976

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of selling on higher levels. Last week Natural Gas was down for most part of the week. If next week Natural Gas sustains below the level of 4.500 $ then below the level of 4.360$ Natural Gas can test the level of 4.270 $ and above 4.500 $ Natural Gas can slightly go up and test the level of 4.599 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains below 194 in the coming week then it can test the level of 188, if it does not break the level of 202 on the upside.

MARKET OVERVIEW
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of selling on higher levels. If next week USD/INR sustains below the level of 44.5500 then below the level of 44.2800 USD/INR can test the level of 44.1300 and below 44.0000 USD/INR can further go down and test the level of 43.8500.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 45.1800 44.8000 44.5700 44.4200 44.1900 44.0400 43.6600

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 43.9000 and 43.4800 will act as major supports and 45.4500 and 46.0500 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 4.050$ and 3.800$ will act as major supports and 4.730$ and 5.030$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 214 and 222, supports would be found at 177 and 170.

Weekly Chart

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Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX

5 -AUG -11 05-SEP -11 30-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 26-AUG -11 29-JUL -11 29-JUL -11 29-JUL -11 29-JUL -11

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS LEAD NICKEL ALUMINIUM

RS. / 10GM. RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS/QUINTAL RS. / BBL. RS./ MM BTU RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS. / KG.

23071 58473 435 4368 202.2 120.55 105.35 1076.1 110.25

23094 58700 434.65 4369 203 120.8 105.4 1076.7 110.5

23320 60739 442.75 4462 206 123.2 109.8 1082.7 114.1

22831 57025 431 4265 194.8 118.25 105.4 1055.1 109.6

23099 59486 433.45 4446 196 119.5 109.1 1064.5 113.75

219963 647260 502146 715736 30106 76789 97043 213179 31917

28 1013 -1.55 78 -6.2 -1.05 3.75 -11.6 3.5

11266 13404 25392 20870 4865 4648 4719 7813 3102

5041802.97 11423935.35 2180370.14 3135755.52 74515.45 461651.42 522654.51 566815.45 177685.88

* Turnover Till Friday

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Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch

International Market
Commodity
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS USD/INR

Weekly Pivots
Closing Price
1601.5 4012.2 441 99.87 4.399 44.34

% Change
0.72 2.69 -0.07 2.33 -3.23 -0.38

Scripts
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

R3
24061.00 66508.33 459.22 4785.00 221.37 130.20 116.90 1122.60 121.47

R2
23572.00 62794.33 447.47 4588.00 210.17 125.25 112.50 1095.00 116.97

R1
23335.00 61135.67 440.43 4517.00 203.13 122.35 110.80 1079.70 115.33

PP
23083.00 59080.33 435.72 4391.00 198.97 120.30 108.10 1067.40 112.47

S1
22846.00 57421.67 428.68 4320.00 191.93 117.40 106.40 1052.10 110.83

S2
22594.00 55366.33 423.97 4194.00 187.77 115.35 103.70 1039.80 107.97

S3
22105.00 51652.33 412.22 3997.00 176.57 110.40 99.30 1012.20 103.47

Weekly Gainers
Commodity ZINC ALUMINIUM CRUDE OIL Expiry Date 29 JUL-11 29 JUL-11 19-AUG -11 Closing Price 109.10 113.75 4446 % Change 3.56 3.18 1.79

Weekly Losers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price 196 1064.50 433.45 % Change -3.06 -1.08 -0.36

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NATURAL GAS 26-AUG -11 NICKEL COPPER 29 JUL-11 30-AUG -11

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