t Ventas Reales (Dt) Pronostico (Ft) Error (Dt-Ft)

1 1704 1702 2
2 1712 1725 -13
3 1752 1749 3
4 1764 1772 -8
5 1805 1795 10
6 1835 1818 17
7 1831 1841 -10
8 1866 1864 2
9 1884 1997 -113
10 1930 1910 20
11 1919 1933 -14
12 1951 1956 -5
Total

MAE 18.083333
RMSE 34.313506
MAPE 0.9712678

Intervalo de confianza para

1887.373 2024.62701120307
diciembre
Error absoluto [Dt-Ft] Error ((Dt-Ft)^2) [Dt-Ft/Dt]*100
2 4 0.1174
13 169 0.7593
3 9 0.1712
8 64 0.4535
10 100 0.5540
17 289 0.9264
10 100 0.5461
2 4 0.1072
113 12769 5.9979
20 400 1.0363
14 196 0.7295
5 25 0.2563
217 14129 11.6552
 t Dt Ft t^2 t*Dt
1 1704 1 1704
2 1712 4 3424
3 1752 9 5256
4 1764 16 7056
TOTAL 10 6932 30 17440
PROMEDIO 2.5 1733 7.5 4360

α 0.10 B 22
β 0.10 A 1678

Ft=1678+22*t
 t Dt Lt Bt Ft Dt-Ft (Dt-Ft)^2
1 1704 1704 0 1704 0 0
2 1712 1704 0 1704 8 64
3 1752 1711.862 0.786155 1712.648 39.3523 1548.603
4 1764 1751.319 4.653279 1755.972 8.027775 64.44517
5 1805 1763.861 5.442163 1769.303 35.69677 1274.259
6 1835 1804.382 8.950061 1813.332 21.66773 469.4904
7 1831 1834.625 11.07933 1845.704 -14.70434 216.2176
8 1866 1831.254 9.634349 1840.889 25.11117 630.5708
9 1884 1865.565 12.10201 1877.667 6.332582 40.10159
10 1930 1883.89 12.72431 1896.615 33.38529 1114.578
11 1919 1929.422 16.00506 1945.427 -26.42727 698.4006
12 1951 1919.457 13.40807 1932.865 18.13457 328.8626
Suma 78 21953 6449.529
Promedio 6.5 1829.417 537.4608
MSE

α 0.982693408
β 0.1

RMSE 23.18320004
 t Dt Ft Error (Dt-Ft) Error absoluto
[(Dt-Ft)^2]
0 15074
1 14554
2 14046
3 15364
4 16344 14759.5 1584.5 2510640.25
5 15500 15077 423 178929
6 15938 15313.5 624.5 390000.25
7 14177 15786.5 -1609.5 2590490.25
8 16094 15489.75 604.25 365118.0625
9 17037 15427.25 1609.75 2591295.063
Total 45 154128 3236.5 8626472.875
Promedio 4.5 15412.8 539.4166666667 862647.2875

k 4

RMSE 928.7881
 t Dt Ft Error (Dt-Ft) Error absoluto
[(Dt-Ft)^2]

0 15074
1 14554
2 14046
3 15364
4 16344
5 15500 15076.4 423.6 179436.96
6 15938 15161.6 776.4 602796.96
7 14177 15438.4 -1261.4 1591129.96
8 16094 15464.6 629.4 396144.36
9 17037 15610.6 1426.4 2034616.96
Total 45 154128 1994.4 4804125.2
Promedio 4.5 15412.8 398.88 960825.039999999

k 5

RMSE 980.2168
 t Dt Ft Dt-Ft Dt-Ft^2
0 15074 15074
1 14554 15074 -520 270400
2 14046 15022 -976 952576
3 15364 14924.4 439.6 193248.2
4 16344 14968.36 1375.64 1892385
5 15500 15105.92 394.076 155295.9
6 15938 15145.33 792.6684 628323.2
7 14177 15224.6 -1047.598 1097462
8 16094 15119.84 974.1614 948990.4
9 17037 15217.25 1819.745 3311473
Total 45 154128 3252.293 9450154
Promedio 4.5 15412.8 361.3658 1050017
RMSE

α 0.1
RMSE 1024.703
 t Dt Ft Dt-Ft Dt-Ft^2
0 15074 15074
1 14554 15074 -520 270400
2 14046 14973.24 -927.2443 859782
3 15364 14793.58 570.4195 325378.4
4 16344 14904.11 1439.894 2073296
5 15500 15183.1 316.8991 100425
6 15938 15244.5 693.4964 480937.3
7 14177 15378.88 -1201.876 1444506
8 16094 15146 948.0006 898705.1
9 17037 15329.68 1707.315 2914925
Total 45 154128 3026.905 9368355
Promedio 4.5 15412.8 336.3227 1040928
RMSE

α 0.193761 El mejor valor de alfa para minimizar el RMSE

RMSE 1020.259
 t Dt Ft Dt-Ft Dt-Ft^2
0 15074 15074
1 14554 15074 -520 270400
2 14046 15022 -976 952576
3 15364 14924.4 439.6 193248.2
4 16344 14968.36 1375.64 1892385
5 15500 15105.92 394.076 155295.9
6 15938 15145.33 792.6684 628323.2
7 14177 15224.6 -1047.598 1097462
8 16094 15119.84 974.1614 948990.4
9 17037 15217.25 1819.745 3311473
10 15399.23
11 13859.31
12 12473.38
13 11226.04
1050017
MSE

α 0.1
RMSE 1024.703

Intervalo de confianza
Intervalo = Ft±(z*RMSE) Sup 12911.68
Inf 9540.401
z 2