The Future of Dubai

Exploring Society, Future Pathways, and Alternatives

Jan Lachenmayer M.A. July 2011, 2nd Edition 1st Edition published in July 2009 by SEgroup

www.xaidialoge.de

Table of Content
3................................................................................................................................................. Abstract ..........................................................................................................................................4 Note to the reader.........................................................................................................................5 1 2 3 Case for Action: Dubai on the Cross-Road! .......................................................................6 Research Design: Focus on Socio-Cultural Mechanisms .................................................7 Exploring Dubais Society .....................................................................................................9 3.1 3.2 3.3 4 Socio-Cultural Frictions Predominant Paradigms Conclusions 14 9 11

Future Pathways and Scenarios.........................................................................................15 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Constituting Factors and Driving Forces Scenario 1: Crisis 17 15

Scenario 2: Bigger, Better, Faster 17 Scenario 3: Crisis as an Opportunity for Change Scenario 4: Prosperity but Balance 19 18

Alternatives and Options ....................................................................................................21 5.1 5.2 5.3 Window of Opportunity Dubai Strategic Plan 2015 Policy Recommendations 21 21 23

References ...........................................................................................................................25 6.1 6.2 Bibliography 25 Interview Statistics 27

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The Future of Dubai Exploring Society, Future Pathways and Alternatives

Abstract
The Government of Dubai has managed to create prosperity and economic development within the time of one generation. Dubai is seen as a beacon for development in the 20th and 21st century. Whether this economic development is achieved by a comparable social development, is a question which still remains open. The objective of this study is to explore Dubais society, revealing possible obstacles and illustrate different pathways for development; pathways of which only one has to be chosen, consciously or unconsciously. Through an explorative study based on twenty interviews several socio-cultural frictions and predominant paradigms in society could be identified, which bear the danger of leading to instability and conflicts. The findings of the interviews are used to develop four scenarios in order to see the future in different ways and based on that decide what to do today. The findings are compared with the current Dubai Strategic Plan 2015 and several policy recommendations are developed.

The Future of Dubai Exploring Society, Future Pathways and Alternatives

Note to the reader

This text is meant neither to criticise, finger-point, nor judge Dubai and its development.. Denouncing Dubai and explicitly addressing the difficulties Dubai faces has become a trend in media over the last year. Dubai is often described as an artificial place, build on a sand and consumerism with no soul, by Western visitors and expats. The truth however lies somewhere in between. Everyone should be allowed to have his or her own opinion, but these opinions should be built on real experiences rather than stories told by others. Dubais actual state of development is rather recent in comparison to the Western and Eastern capitals, which have been under development for centuries. In contrast, the United Arab Emirates was founded only 37 years ago. From this perspective, Dubais development has to be evaluated on the basis of a success story. However, it seems Dubai is facing critical times with a need for path-steering, clear and collective decisions in order to choose the development tracks for the future. This is important in order to stabilise and sustain the developments accomplished until today. This study was conducted from a perspective of a scientific observer. But it is also from a personal observation and meant as personal support. Having lived in Dubai and made plenty of friends in the region in support of these friendships it is important to make them aware of possible dangers. Accordingly this study is dedicated to my friends and to all the people involved in the building-up of Dubai, forming part of the pillars on which its development is established

The Future of Dubai Exploring Society, Future Pathways and Alternatives

Case for Action: Dubai on the Cross-Road!

Currently Dubai is one of the most international, if not the most international place in the world. A multitude of people from different cultural backgrounds are living together in peace. Appreciation can be awarded to this fact, as well as to Dubais exceptional economic development over the past forty years. Dubai is a unique place in its own sense. Dubai on the crossroad Yet, Dubai is facing challenges, especially in the demanding current times and state of world affairs, which is proving to have a significant impact on Dubais future. Questions to put forward are: how is Dubais society constituted? Is the rapid economic development accompanied by a comparable social development? Is the society stable or rather fragile, modern or even postmodern? And how does this influence Dubais future? Multiple development paths are possible. The objective of this study is to explore Dubais society, revealing possible obstacles and illustrating different pathways for development; pathways of which one has to be chosen consciously or unconsciously. Scientific context Screening for literature and studies on this matter one will seldom be successful. Research on Dubais society, specifically the interrelation between the social and political dimensions with its economy, is highly underdeveloped. While some research on Dubais economic development could be identified (Hvidt 2009, Azizi 2008, Davidson 2008, Matly/Dillon 2007, Walters et al. 2006) a comparable exploration of the society, its constituencies, mechanisms and development appears to remain a blind spot (rare exception Davidson 2007).

The Future of Dubai Exploring Society, Future Pathways and Alternatives

Research Design: Focus on Socio-Cultural Mechanisms

Field of inquiry: socio-cultural mechanisms of society Under culture we understand sets of beliefs, values and practices shared by a group of people. Socio-cultural mechanisms are therefore the underlying conditions explaining human behaviour and social interactions within society, in this case Dubais society. Research design and paper outline The following findings are the result of an explorative study, conducted between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 in Dubai and the consecutive reflection on this exploration. Two approaches were applied: Explorative Culture Analysis (ECA) and Culture Impact Evaluation (CIE)

ECA is a deep qualitative interview format that explores a social system, in this case Dubais society, relaying upon the stories of its members. ECA is based on the Harun alRashid principle of Storytelling. For the purpose of this study, twenty generative interviews with experts, managers and directors from different sectors, as well as the government were held. The findings of the interviews are presented in chapter 3. Details about the interview partners can be found under References: 6.2 Interview Statistics. For a further elaboration of the approach ECA see Lachenmayer (2009: Explorative Culture Analysis). The findings of the interviews will be refined by literature research.

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The second applied approach CIE utilises the findings of these interviews to outline possible future pathways and according to these pathways, develop scenarios to see the future in different perspectives. Four developed scenarios on Dubais future are presented in chapter 4. For a further elaboration of the approach CIE see Lachenmayer (2009: Culture Impact Evaluation). Chapter 5 presents alternative options for action and policy recommendations in order to follow pathways, which might lead to the preferred scenario.

The Future of Dubai Exploring Society, Future Pathways and Alternatives

Exploring Dubais Society

On the one side the findings of the interviews revealed several socio-cultural frictions within Dubais society. These frictions are some kind of demarcation lines, which might lead to conflicts and instability in the future. On the other side certain underlying paradigms could be identified. These are predominant mental models observable by methods, models, and instruments currently in use and part of everyday practice. The socio-cultural frictions are going to be presented in chapter 3.1; the predominant paradigms will follow in chapter 3.2.

3.1 Socio-Cultural Frictions

Culture is understood as the underlying believes, values, and practices determining human behavior and social interactions. Nationals | Foreigners Local culture and traditions seem to have a challenging time surviving, as they are being driven aside by newcomers, expatriates, and labourers cultures (Interview 5). The social architecture of Dubai is premised on a sharp division and separation of the main three communities: local Emiratis, western, Arab and subcontinental expatriates, and South Asian workers (Masad 2008). The latter two communities constitute the majority of the population. Davidson (2008: p. 151) estimated the indigenous population (local Emiratis) of Dubai to be less then 80,000 of the total population of approximately 1.6 million, representing a ratio of 5 per cent. Seen in a different light, this means that just one out of twenty people living in Dubai have the UAE citizenship. Masad (2008) arrives at a similar estimation of 10 per cent local Emiratis. This leads to an

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enormous challenge for Dubais society, because the majority of expatriates and labourers bring in their own core culture (Leitkultur) with them (Lachenmayer 2009: CrossCultural Complex Project Management in Dubai). Core culture means the ethics, standards, values, and morals. These core cultures are hardly challenged by a local culture. Consequently, an adaptation or exposure with the local culture does not take place (Interview 1, 12, and 14). The codes of society, in respect to the local Emirati population, are to newcomers not accessible, which ultimately lead to a separation. The cost of such an apathetic and mixed foreign population is that Dubais social structure is becoming increasingly fragmented, as different communities emerge and then fail to integrate witch one another (Davidson 2007: p. 192). A change of this trend is most unlikely. A dialogue for better understanding between cultures is neither observable nor fostered. Project Workers | Long-Term Residents The major part of Dubais society is constituted by members, who are living there for a period of one to five years only. Consequently, the so called project workers (expats and labourers) have a short-term orientation. Merely the smaller part of the population has a long-term orientation and is therefore sincerely interested in a sustainable society. Dubai is not a melting pot comparable to the US some centuries ago and other major international metropolises, but a short-term based society. People come here to work on timely restricted projects for mostly less then three years (Interview 10). Moreover, the vast majority are young men, which has led to an incredibly skewed gender balance; given that many of these are very short term residents, most aim to remit the bulk of their income to their home country and are therefore unwilling to integrate into a cosmopolitan society (Davidson 2007: p. 190). Old | Young Within the local Emirati population, a friction looms between the older generation (40+) who is cleaved and socialised in a Bedouin culture, and the younger high technology generation (Interview 13). The rapid development of Dubai in terms of time span should not be underestimated. For example, just ten years ago the greater part of Dubai was still desert. This leads to a confrontation between the older and younger generations. The young generation is coined in a high technology culture (Interview 12). Cosmopolitanism | Tradition The Emirati culture can be described as having two poles: On the one side a cosmopolitan orientation, and a family, tribe and clan driven tradition on the other (Interview 10 and 5).

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From Bedouin to global player resulted in a disavowal of local traditions and even the language. The younger generation seems to be in some cases more used to English than to Arabic (Interview 14). The traditional culture to fall back on as a safe haven is missing, which again results in increased uncertainty and problems of identity (Interview 10). As the city grows, its cosmopolitan nature expands and intensifies reflected in such areas as dress code, food, language, religion and other aspects of lifestyle filtering through the everyday life. Dubai often finds itself caught between its carefully crafted and branded image as a city of harmonious living and a global hub of business and tourism, and its reputation as a harshly segregated city living off the indentured labour of exploited Asian workers (Masad 2008). Cosmopolitan orientation and traditions are seen too many times as contradictions. From a counter perspective they could enrich each other, if a new image emerges based first and foremost on taking away the fear of loosing their local culture, identity, or traditions, which most seems to have. Shiites | Sunnis A greater role on the importance of the religious affiliation between Shiites and Sunnis may come into play in the near future. The logic of the tribal society follows primarily along their origin and the time (in terms of generations) that they have resided in the region. The distinction here is between Arab and Persian origin (Interview 13 and 14). While this distinction used to be the dominant one, another one seems to have become of importance; the distinction between Shiites and Sunnis (Interview 14). Reasons for this might be the importation of demarcation lines from conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. For example, government employees are predominantly Sunnis, which never was a topic for concern; however publications in the local media indicate greater awareness on this topic (Interview 13).

3.2 Predominant Paradigms

Predominant paradigms are the (mental) models and world views that affect the way an individual and a society as a whole perceive reality and respond to that perception. Social contract | Pragmatic market place The foundation of the society is not built on a social contract, but on the functionality and logic of a pragmatic marketplace. People complete their intended business and go home afterwards, which is to their country of citizenship. Although the local Emirati population is part of a social contract, as they precipitate from an elaborated rentier system. They benefit from free education, health care, housing and land providence. The majority of the citys society (90-95% project workers: expats, traders, labourers) is not submissive to the social contract. They live and work on the basis

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of a market place with pragmatic market mechanisms. Until now, social bonds have solely been based either on business licensing, work contracts or property leasing (Interview 10). Transition | Integration The concept of the society is based on transition, not integration. The predominant perception is that all workers are replaceable. Dubai is the opposite of a melting pot and this is the way it chooses to remain (Interview 10). Integration is not favoured. A residence permit is dependent on a job assignment and will be granted for six months only, demanding a need for renewal (policy regulation enacted 05/2009). Limiting the number of allowances for renewal has been a topic of discussion (Interview 14). The ministry of economic development announced the following: We will not create a climate for lasting immigration (GEO Special 2007, p. 146). Scarcity management | Money solves all problems While Bedouin mental models are based on the management of scarcity and a deep connection with nature, the post-oil and new technology generations are driven by the attitude that money can solve all problems. Nature is perceived as a good, which can be exploited. Long-term negative effects on nature are denied in favour of short-term money driven solutions. Shortages in natural resources, such as water, are solved by cost-expensive solutions (GEO Special 2007: p. 144-145). The bond with nature weakened antagonistically to the growth of economic development and prosperity. While just one generation ago, the people living in the region had a strong connection to nature and managed the scarcity that came along with it quite efficiently, the generation of today lost contact with nature completely. A great deal of old wisdom developed over the centuries, may get lost with the entrance to 21st century metropolis civilisation. New money elite The enormous focus on prosperity and wealth led to the formation of a new money elite, which is endangered to transform to a consumer-focused and fun society. Shopping activities, cars and parties are some of the constituting elements. This development might lead to a critical lack of willingness to contribute to society. Davidson quotes one of Dubais veteran merchants: He describes the situation of Dubais young nationals today, as possibly only 20 percent being worthwhile and becoming academics, professionals or businessmen. About 60 per cent can probably be written-off as a consequence of giving in to the all-too-easy acceptance of the

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pleasures just being handed out to them (Davidson 2007: p. 179, Interview 5). Nonetheless, there are a small number of young locals who are superbly educated in Western talent hotbeds. These educated young locals however constitute a minority. Tribal Equilibrium The organisation and logic of society is still based on tribal systems. The tribes and clanships are still determining factors (Interview 13). Tribes differ in importance and power. The sub organisation of tribes follows along the family lines. (Interview 3) Unlike the tribal model that stresses horizontal, egalitarian relations, the family model perceives relationships in a hierarchical, vertical form. (Rugh 2007: p. 24) Maintaining the equilibrium between those tribes is still an important political issue. The tribes are highly interfolded and aside from the rivalry there is a lot of support. Keeping a straight face, pride and dignity play important roles in this system and consequently are the reason for the lack of transparency (Interview 12). These tribal and family expectations accomplish two missions. They establish the group feeling that Ibn Khaldun believes to be of major important to society and rule, and they create clear boundaries. Tribal and family boundaries are in fact boundaries of personal obligations. As members of tribes and families, people have obligations in both circles of relationships. () From the family or tribal perspective, any relationship beyond its boundaries constitutes to an outsider one. Outsider obligations differ from 'insider' ones in that they are mutable. (Rugh 2007: p. 221) These logics need to be considered when trying to understand the mechanisms of the local Emirati part of society. Dubai Inc. Dubai is often said to be governed in a similar way as a corporation. If this comparison is accurate, a representative government might be beside the point. However, Dubai Inc. is lacking a healthy corporate culture in order to protect and stabilise its inner organisation. Return on Investment (ROI) is the primary approach for evaluating projects and initiatives (Interview 15). Consequently, evaluation methods are once again relatively short-term orientated (Interview 9). Dubai instituted an extreme pro-business path on which it has based its subsequent development. (Hvidt 2006: p. 6) On the positive side, this paradigm laid the ground for the enormous economic development. On the negative side, economic mechanisms are short-term orientated and especially do not take a long-term social and societal perspective into account.

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3.3 Conclusions
Reviewing all findings, socio-cultural frictions as well as predominant paradigms, two summarising conclusions can be drawn from the reflection: Short-term orientation Many factors indicate and abet a short-term orientation. The majority of foreign project workers reside in Dubai for only a limited time span of one to five years. However, they form the majority of the population, estimated around 90%. Even within the 10% local Emirati population a shift towards short-term orientation can be observed. Especially the younger new money elite is more interested in consumerism than developing and contributing substantially to society. In terms of nature and natural resources, short-term money-driven solutions are preferred over the long-term sustainable behavioural driven approaches. Market mechanisms and economic interests dominate, which are inherently short-term. Projects are primarily measured on a financial level by Return-On-Investment (ROI). Dubai functions as a pragmatic market place, not based on a whole society, including a social contract. Danger of instability Many factors speak in favour of instability, rather than stability within society: the imbalance between nationals and newcomers, and in particular the lack of integration of the newcomers. The social structure is becoming more and more fragmented. Nationals get the impression of being foreigners in their own country. This is a result of the fact that there is a deep gap between local and newcomers culture. Differences in religious affiliation, imported from conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, may come to play a more dominant role in the future. All of the observed socio-cultural frictions: nationals | foreigners, project workers | longterm residents, old | young, cosmopolitan | tradition, and Shiites | Sunnis indicate an increased instability if these frictions are not balanced in the near future. The predominant mental models of the pragmatic market place, transition, and return on investment are all contributing to the strengthening rather than balancing of this instability.

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Future Pathways and Scenarios

Multiple future pathways are possible. The question which follows is what are the influential factors and what are the underlying driving forces to these factors? If both these factors and forces can be identified, a framework can be build out of which future scenarios can evolve. Scenarios are a tool to assist in planning for a world in which the future is uncertain. It is about seeing the future in different ways and using these different futures as a context for deciding what to do today. Scenarios are not predictions of the future, but a tool linking its uncertainty with decisions that have to be made today.

4.1 Constituting Factors and Driving Forces

The societal system is influenced by two dominant factors: the economy and the institutional setting. The institutional setting is a system of rules, formal or informal which guide all social interactions. Formal rules, for example laws, are set by the government, while informal rules evolve out of traditions and habits manifested through social interactions. The government can influence but not determine the informal rules. For keeping the society in focus, both economy and institutional settings are external factors. The driving force of the economy is growth, and for the institutional setting it is stability in order to create a sustainable society. The findings of the exploration, presented in the form of interviews and refining literature research in chapter 2, lay out the functioning and logic of Dubais society. Visualising it from horizontal axis increases stability and vertical axis increases growth. The findings indicate a negative correlation between growth and stability (see Graphic 1). That is, for the given institutional setting (status quo), the higher the economic growth the less stable the society seems to be. So far this is an interesting finding, as it indicates a divergence in goal attainment.

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Graphic 1: Correlation between growth and stability The comprised driving forces can be visualised in a 2x2 matrix leading to the creation of four scenarios (see Graphic 2). The scenarios are along the lines of economic growth: boom | slow-down and stability/sustainability: institutional setting status quo | alternative institutional setting. The time horizon is 2015.

Graphic 2: 4 Scenarios Until now the scenarios are interconnected as economic boom and slow-down occurs in circles. While the first two scenarios are more closely related to the current reality, the third and forth imply a change in the institutional settings.

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4.2 Scenario 1: Crisis

In the first scenario Dubai leaps into an economic downturn. The economy shrinks and the institutional setting is in accordance with the one assessed in the interviews (status quo). Dubai is in a serious crisis. A large amount of projects, especially in the construction business, are on hold. Prices of real estate dropped, buildings remain uninhabited and hilarious future projects are getting passed-of. Dubai is bashed by the international media: from star to scapegoat. The Middle Eastern star looses brilliance. Workers and expats loose their jobs and have to leave the country. Many locals see this as a positive development. In fact, currently it stabilises the basement of society as it causes the local Emirati population to increase in ratio. National Emiratis are not so much influenced by the crisis, many are employed in government or de facto government organisations (owned by the ruling family), which guarantee employment. Salaries are higher in comparison with those being paid in the private sector organisations. Suffering appears predominantly within the lower income part of the population, consisting mostly of Asian workers or traders. In times of crisis the sub cultures and sub groups within society stick more closely together, them being the Asians, Emiratis, or Western Expats. This leads to the development of a parallel society. This society becomes even more of a black-box for the government, as each part follows its own rules and mechanisms. On the economic side, long-term investments are being avoided. Mental models foster a shortterm orientation. Return-on-investment becomes even more the predominant paradigm as cash liquidity is rare. All socially stabilising engagements, such as culture, art and redistribution are coming to a hold. The conservation of the environment and natural resources is seen as a luxury, which is omitted for the sake of initiatives in support of economic growth. On the positive side, the dramatic population increase over the last years comes to a hold and a trend in the opposite direction is observable. As a consequence the ratio of the local population increases for the first time in years. Nonetheless, identity problems within the local population, especially the younger generation, are strongly prevalent.

4.3 Scenario 2: Bigger, Better, Faster

In this world the society is driven by the economy. The economy is booming and the institutional setting is fostering this boom. Dubai is known as a place of adventure and possibilities. The motto being: Bigger, better, faster. Build bigger buildings, be the best in world and faster developments. Many venturers, primarily male bachelors from all over the world, come to Dubai seeking adventure and business opportunities. The city is transformed into a gigantic megapolis growing at a breathtakingly high speed. The number of foreign project workers

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dramatically increases while the local national population decrease, to the point where numbers reach insignificant single digits in comparison with the whole population. This leads to a noticeable lack of identity, especially faced by the younger generation. The rentier system allows them to still be well off and in fortunate positions. They own most of the land and property. Business licensing creates a constant revolving of income. In consequence, the rich are getting richer. The succeeding generation profits from this wealth. They do not have to work. Spending money on their well being and having fun is their predominant occupation. The enhanced abundance of prosperity and wealth has a negative impact on their working morale. They are not interested in taking over their fathers business. The society issues do not really bother them, as long as they can have fun and enjoy life. This leads to a conflict of generations and creates tensions within families and between the tribes. The tribe equilibrium tends to get imbalanced. However, the ruling family accomplishes to maintain quietude with diplomatic finesse by generous concessions to important tribes. The dominance of an economic focus creates the desire to strive for even more short-term profits and willingness to taking risks. More venturers enter the country. The foundation of people who contribute to a long-term sustainable society is being reduced to a decreasing ratio of local Emirati citizens. Second generation residents leave Dubai for their country of citizenship. The growing population consumes more water than available and the waste system seems to be in serious trouble. However, once again the ruling family accomplishes through smart deals to guarantee the balance in the current time, by exporting waste to India and obtaining water from Saudi Arabia. Both countries take advantage of Dubais constraints by increasing their profit margins. The beaches have a hard time to recover from excremental pollution because of this. The numbers of tourists entering the country is on the decrease, because it is known internationally that the beaches in Dubai are severely polluted. However, on the other side the numbers of Asian tourists entering the country are on the increase. The local nationals feel offended by the strange habits and manners of the Chinese new money elite entering Dubai recently, but hazard the consequences as this causes the prices of their properties to increase even further.

4.4 Scenario 3: Crisis as an Opportunity for Change

The third scenario is coined by an economic downturn. The government implements substantial reforms in order to stabilise society. As a consequence, the institutional setting changes (ex post status quo). The economic downturn leads to turmoil in the labour market. Many workers loose their jobs. Entrepreneurs of small and middle size companies, as well as traders close their businesses. Without employment many people have to leave the country, including longterm residents and high potentials. The total population decrease. The situation has a negative spill-over effect on people who are still employed. The business and civil

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atmosphere darkens. A tendency to ethnical riots and conflicts are observable as each subculture sticks closer together in tough times. The negative atmosphere has an influence on the numbers of tourists entering the country, consequently decreasing dramatically. The government anticipates the dangers and implements a curious plan by announcing a new initiative: crisis as an opportunity for change. Herewith they try to foster a long-term orientation for all members of society nationals as well as labourers and expats. A strong image is created on how Dubai could possibly look like in the future: A peaceful place, where people from all over the world are living together, equally contributing and profiting from society. People should stick together and help each other instead of fighting. In the bad times Dubai supports them and they should support Dubai in return. Especially a family orientation is created. Prices for schooling are reduced, accompanying the subinitiative children are the future. The first successes are observable, although still more male project workers are leaving the country, while expats and workers with families remain. With several subinitiatives the government accomplishes to build trust in society. Trust in each other, in Dubai, and in the common future. A long-term orientation plays a pivotal role. The Return-on-Investment project evaluation is supplemented by long-term value creation. The positive effects seem to work, although the economy is slowing down even further, the atmosphere is getting better. The focus of keeping and attracting of high potentials is paying off. The numbers of high potentials with a long-term commitment are on the increase. After some time the new schooling policy will show some initial successes. Increasingly more expat mangers are being replaced by young talent from families of long-term residents, as well as the lower and middle income classes.

4.5 Scenario 4: Prosperity but Balance

In the fourth scenario the economy is booming and the government is implementing several reforms in order to balance growth and guarantee sustainability. As a result the institutional setting changes (ex post status quo). After a serious down-turn the economy starts to catch up again. Construction business and re-export are the first to boom. Labourers, as well as middle and high management positions are vacant. The demand of the labour market increases significantly. The government, having learnt from former boom times, sets up specific regulations. The strategy is to form a long-term orientated adaptive society. This initiative is called prosperity but balance. The ambition is to create awareness within the Emirati population, to contribute to society as well as to increase the foundation of people with a long-term orientation by carefully evaluating and offering permanent residencies. Long-term residents, who exhibit the attitude of contributing to society, are offered a permanent residency, enabling them to grow their families and providing them with the

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respective benefits. For example, school costs for children of these families are reduced. Incentive systems are established to enable potential Arab and Western expatriates to reside in Dubai for a longer-term, if not their entire life. These incentive systems are cautiously balanced according to a point system. Western and especially a significant number of Arab people take this opportunity. As a consequence, the Arabic character of Dubai is strengthened for the first time in decades. This is well perceived by the Emirati population. Thresholds and barriers between subcultures are softening or even breaking up. Beside that the moderate Arabisation in combination with a government initiative to foster cultural institutions has a very positive effect on tourism, tourism is booming. Especially the number of Western tourists is increasing, due to a very successful marketing campaign by the Dubai Tourism Authority: exploring Arabic culture in Dubai. Another initiative by the government is aimed to foster entrepreneurial activities within the youth. Incentives are set accordingly. First successes of young businessmen are being publicly promoted by media, creating role models for the younger generation and sets positive examples to all. Several initiatives for the fostering of cross-culturalism and dialogues in school, business and civil activities are also showing the first positive effects. In a large survey conducted Dubais citizens rate their life and life in Dubai as quite satisfactory. Dubai becomes a role model for the Islamic modernism in the Arab world, and of crossculturalism right across the globe. Several states are sending diplomatic missions to Dubai in order to learn from Dubais policies and success stories.

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Alternatives and Options

5.1 Window of Opportunity

The economic-financial crisis can be seen as a blessing in disguise for Dubai. In times of boom people have become used to the ever increasing profits, margins, scale of constructions, and hilarious developments. People did not hear, or pretended not wanting to hear the warnings and concerns issued. Therefore the current economic and financial crisis can have a very positive effect, as it opens a Policy Window of opportunity (Kingdon 1995); the opportunity to set the right pathway for the future and to make changes where they are essential. This time for change may possibly be limited, as the window of opportunity will draw to a close again. Once this window is opened, it does not remain open for long (Kingdon 1995: p. 169); therefore strong, courageous and clear decisions are needed.

5.2 Dubai Strategic Plan 2015

The Dubai Executive Council developed, in a remarkable consultative effort, the Dubai Strategic Plan (DSP) 2015. The first and second strategic goals out of the five are set very clear: 1st Economic Development and 2nd Social Development (DSP 2015: p. 9). In terms of past accomplishments Dubai must be seen as a prime example, as well as beacon for economic development in the emerging world of the 20th and 21st century. Whether this economic development is achieved by a comparable social development, is a question which still remains open. The presumption is rather that the focus has been primarily on the economic side until now. It is written in the background introduction: Dubai now enjoys a global reputation as an economic hub and excellent location for investment. (DSP 2015: p. 9) Both remarks refer to economic development only.

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Looking at the chapter on social development in more detail, in the introduction it is written: International comparisons of the drivers that sustain economic growth show that only those countries with an infrastructure supporting effective social development are able to sustain higher levels of continuous economic growth. (DSP 2015: p. 26) Moreover, Significant efforts have been made to provide the required infrastructure to support service delivery. Social services are currently accessible to all Nationals at a minimal or no cost. These services include health services, education opportunities and social assistance services. (DSP 2015: p. 26) The key word here is Nationals. An infrastructure which supports primarily just five percent of the total population is most probably not contributing to sustaining the high levels of continuous economic growth (see quote above). To make it very clear at this point; there is nothing against taking care of and providing services to Nationals. This is in itself a remarkable accomplishment. However, we cannot compare social development for Nationals only with the broader social development aimed at fostering growth and stabilising the society. The strategy for social development is further elaborated on through seven thrusts (DSP 2015: p. 27-28): 1. Preserve National Identity and Improve Community Cohesion. 2. Increase Nationals Participation in the Workforce and Society. 3. Improve the Achievement of Students and Ensure All Nationals Have Access to Quality Education. 4. Improve the Quality of Healthcare Services and the Health Status of the Population. 5. Ensure Quality Social Services and Provided to Meet the Needs of the Population. 6. Ensure Equality and Acceptable Working Conditions for Workforce and Attract and Retain Required Expertise. 7. Enrich Cultural Environment. All strategic thrusts are extremely valid. However, a strong combining vision seems to be a missing factor. And once again, the strong focus is on the Nationals and not on the society as a whole, which is in fact contradicting the words of his highness Sheikh Mohammad bin Rashid Al Maktoum, UAE Vice President, Prime minister and Ruler of Dubai, who writes in the preface: This plan will serve as a strategic agenda () to ensure prosperity and sustainable growth. () meant to support public wellbeing, provide high quality of life for both UAE citizens and residents, and provide justice and equality. (DSP 2015: p. 7) Taking this as an amendment of the vision seems to be necessary. The point we want to make here is that there seems to be two flaws. The first concerns an in depth understanding of social development, which tends to be very technocratic, and the second concerns the implementation of the strategic plan.

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A sustainable society is not created by just providing an infrastructure, especially if this infrastructure is accessible to only a few. Social development is a complex task; in fact it is a continuous process, which cannot be simply initiated by setting up an infrastructure. Social systems, such as a society is not a machine-type product, where improving some parts is leading to a better overall performance. Instead, a society has to be seen as a living organism. It takes time to grow and develop this organism, and to also obtain a proper understanding of its elements and mechanisms. This study is aimed to enhance this understanding, bringing forward options for fostering and building a sustainable society. The following chapters will provide some options and alternatives for enabling Dubais society to flourish.

5.3 Policy Recommendations

In what ever direction the government is leading Dubai, we strongly recommend not aiming for a far-fetched Best Practice, but reaching for a down-to-earth Next Practice. A Next Practice orientation includes a carefully self-monitoring of ones own conditions and the existing framework. For a starting point, this is the essential basic configuration. Face the brutal facts and then continue from there. Consider the actual state of the society and the resources available in order to regain the ability to act based on realistic objectives. On the one hand the overall strategy should foster prosperity and growth and on the other hand, develop and guarantee a sustainable and stable society. The question that should be put forward is: How does a future society look like that we want to live in? First and most important is to create a common and shared vision. This vision should be long-term orientated and integrative, capitalising and uniting all actors of society. The vision should be accompanied by a strong image. An image which appreciates Dubais constituencies and attracts people for the future, such as high potentials and their families. This image, for example could be: Dubai: Multi-Cultural Haven Connecting the World. Nurture the development towards a long-term orientated society. Offer citizenships and long-term residencies according to a point based system, depending on Arabic language proficiency, years of residency, historic cultural test, testimonial giver, etc. Offer retirement residencies for people who worked and resided in Dubai until their retirement. Instigate an affordable educational system for families who contribute to the society on the long-term.

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Establish and maintain cultural institutions such as theatres, museums, opera houses and art galleries in order to stabilise and protect society, especially during difficult times and the current financial crisis.

Set-up programmes to foster and initiate a dialogue between the different subcultures. Foster Arabisation as part of an identity strategy and as an instrument for cultural understanding and dialogue. Establish incentives for expatriates to learn the Arabic language. Foster the proportion of Arabs in ratio to the whole population e.g. set immigration incentives according to this. Develop programmes to foster integration into Arabic traditions and culture. Establish bi-lingual schools and universities (Arabic & English). As a side effect this should cause Asian family kids to start learn Arabic. Capitalise on Arabic culture in tourism; set marketing campaigns accordingly

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References

6.1 Bibliography
Azizi, Banafsheh (2008): Economic development in Arab Gulf states, Georgia Institute of Technology, Master's thesis, available at: http://smartech.gatech.edu/bitstream/1853/24746/1/azizi_banafsheh_200808_mast.pdf (accessed February 25, 2009) Davidson, Christopher M. (2008): Dubai: the security dimensions of the region's premier free port, in: Middle East Policy (Washington/D.C.), p. 143-160 Davidson, Christopher M. (2007): Dubai: the vulnerability of success - London: Hurst Dubai Strategic Plan 2015: Highlights Dubai Strategic Plan, Dubai where the future begins, available at: http://egov.dubai.ae/opt/CMSContent/Active/CORP/en/Documents/DSPE.pdf (accessed February 28, 2009) GEO Special (2007): Windeln fr die Wste, in Dubai, Emirate und Oman, Dossier Politik und Gesellschaft, Issue February/March, p. 144-145 GEO Special (2007): Babylon am Gold, in: Dubai, Emirate und Oman, Dossier Politik und Gesellschaft, Issue February/March, p. 146 Hvidt, Martin (2009): 'The Dubai Model: An outline of key components of the development process in Dubai.' available at: http://arab-reform.net/IMG/pdf/The_Dubai_Model_by_M_Hvidt_Oct07.pdf (accessed February 16, 2009) Kingdon, John W. (1995): Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, 2nd Edition, AddisonWesley Longman Educational Publishers, Michigan

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Lachenmayer, Jan (2009): Dubai: How to Build Babylons Tower Properly? Fostering a discourse on cross-culturality, complexity, projects, and management, available at: http://segroup.de/shared/files/papers/SEgroup_Dubai_HowtoBuildtheBabylonianTowerProperly.p df (accessed July 14, 2009) Lachenmayer, Jan (2009): Explorative Culture Analysis [ECA] Micro Anthropology through Storytelling, available at: http://segroup.de/en/library/approaches (accessed July 9, 2009) Lachenmayer, Jan (2009): Approach: Culture Impact Evaluation, available soon Masad, Mohammad (2008): Dubai, What Cosmopolitan City?, in International Institute for the Study of Islam in the Modern World (ISIM) Review 22 / autumn 2008, p. 10-11, available at: http://www.isim.nl/files/review_22/review_22-10.pdf (accessed March 5, 2009) Matly, Michael / Dillon, Laura (2007): Dubai strategy: past, present, and future, Cambridge/Mass.: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, available at: http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/BCSIA_content/documents/Matly_Paper1.pdf (accessed February 25, 2009) Rugh, Andrea B. (2007): The political culture of leadership in the United Arab Emirates, Palgrave Macmillan, New York Walters, Timothy N. / Kadragic, Alma / Walters, Lynne M. (2006): Miracle or Mirage: Is Development Sustainable in the United Arab Emirates? Published in: Middle East Review of International Affairs, Volume 10, No. 3, available at: http://meria.idc.ac.il/journal/2006/issue3/jv10no3a6.html (accessed February 16, 2009)

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6.2 Interview Statistics

For the documentation of 14 out of 20 interviews check: http://Dubai-CCCP.blogspot.com

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The Future of Dubai Exploring Society, Future Pathways, and Alternatives July 2011

xaidialoge Jan Lachenmayer Divisional Head

www.xaidialoge.de jan.lachenmayer@xailabs.de +49 (0)30 - 29 35 22 25

xailabs GmbH Oranienstr. 161 D-10969 Berlin

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