Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Descriptive Statistics Analysis Single & Multiple Moving Averages Single & Multiple-Parameters Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing with Seasonality Methods
Decomposition Methods Home | About me Simple and Multiple Regression Analysis Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Models Multivariate Data Analysis
Table 4.1 shows applying the earlier three smoothing methods that had been discussed, to a seasonal data series. Looking at the descriptive statistics summary, it appears that the Holt's three-parameter smoothing method gives the smallest errors (MAE=72.80, MAPE=13.09, MSE=7265.55, and the standard deviation of errors is giving 85.24). However, there is too much smoothing that is done, and the every fourth-month periodic systemic errors also need to be eliminated. Clearly, we require the Winter's method to improve it, as shown in Table 4.2. The descriptive statistics in Table 4.2 shows that Winter's method gives the smallest errors among the four methods (MAE=28.61, MAPE=5.41, MSE=1102.76, standard deviation of errors =33.21). In Figure 4.1, the Winter's method is super-imposed over the other three methods versus the original observed series. The original data clearly shows a linear trend with additive seasonality. The seasonal cycle repeats in almost every four periods. The Winter's method shows that the forecast (the yellow curve) trails the original data closely and yet not overly smoothed as was the case in the other three methods. Table 4.1 Application of Single Exponential Smoothing, Linear 2-Parameter and 3-Parameter Linear Smoothing Methods To Seasonal Data
Single Brown's One-Parameter Linear Exponential Holt's Two-Parameter Linear Exponential Smoothing, =0.2 Exponential Smoothing, Smoothing, = =0.2, =0.3 0.35 Mont Peri Histori Foreca Forecas Single Double Value Value Foreca Foreca Smooth Smoothi Forecas Forecas h od cal st t Error Expone Expone of of st st Error ing ng t t Error t Sales (SES) (SES) ntial ntial Data Trend St +bt Ft+m a b
This site http://vbautomation.110mb.com was created in February 2007. contact William email: vbautomation@yahoo.com