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Mac Belniak
Principal Sales Consultant, Model Builder
Agenda
Decisions & Uncertainty Predictive Analytics Analytics & Rules Model Builder Demonstration Decision Management Q&A
Agenda
Decisions & Uncertainty Predictive Analytics Analytics & Rules Model Builder Demonstration Decision Management Q&A
Decision Timeline
Odds of Default
Approve/Decline Loan
Default?
Profit/ Loss
4
2009 FICO Corporation.
10:1
campaign? What is the likelihood that this transaction is fraudulent? What are the odds that a customer will attrite if I lower their credit limit?
to the campaign? How much will a cardholders utilization change if I increase their credit limit?
Agenda
Decisions & Uncertainty Predictive Analytics Analytics & Rules Model Builder Demonstration Decision Management Q&A
Development
2008
24 Months
Delinquency?
Utilization?
2009 Performance 3 Months Target: Good or bad? Was the customer 30, 60, or 90 days delinquent or charged off during the performance period?
Model Development
Predictive Model
#inquirieslast6months
Balance/CreditLimit
CustomerID
GoodorBad
Scorecard Algorithm
9 2 11 7 8 17 3 11 23
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 2 1 1 0 1 1 2
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
20:1
10:1
5:1
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Odds of Good
15:1
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Scorecard Algorithm
#inquirieslast6months
Balance/CreditLimit
CustomerID
GoodorBad
Weight 64 53 55 34 48 24 74 53 60 24 53 63 45 33 45 51 24 75
9 2 11 7 8 17 3 11 23
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 2 1 1 0 1 1 2
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
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Weight 64 55 48 74 60 53 45 51 75
#inquirieslast6months
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CustomerID
+
74
000112354
+
51
=
Good
180
Bad Score
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2009 FICO Corporation.
150
175
200
225
The 20% of customers with the lowest score cover over 70% of the bads!
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Agenda
Decisions & Uncertainty Predictive Analytics Analytics & Rules Model Builder Demonstration Decision Management Q&A
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Agenda
Decisions & Uncertainty Predictive Analytics Analytics & Rules Model Builder Demonstration Decision Management Q&A
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Prepare
Replace Missing Sample
Stratified Random
Explore
View Table Statistics
Summary Frequency Correlation By-Variable
Model
Deploy
MB Native Files
Dataset Comparison
Linear Regression Services-Oriented Logistic Architecture Batch Regression Transactional Neural Networks PMML Reason Codes Blaze Advisor K-Means & Bang Teradata Clustering Scorecard Tracking PCA Char. Analysis Evaluation Population Stability Reports
ROC, GINI, KS, etc.
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How many
SQL in Database
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Rule Service
Model Builder
Java
Import
DM Repository
Rule Service
.NET
Imported models are available to rule developers and authorized business users can see and modify them PMML integration
Code Gen
COBOL
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Demonstration
Behavior Risk Scorecard Import Data from SAS Check the Data Find Predictive Patterns Select Best Predictors Evaluate Scorecard Quality Export to Blaze Advisor
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Agenda
Decisions & Uncertainty Predictive Analytics Analytics & Rules Model Builder Demonstration Decision Management Q&A
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Stronger predictive models in less time Accelerated analytic review & approval Rapid deployment into production systems
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PreScore Service
Across the Lifecycle Analytics Industry Standard and Custom Credit Bureau Scores: FICO Score Global FICO Score FICO Expansion Score Insurance Scores FICO Credit Capacity Index MyFICO Custom Analytics: Predictive Analytics Optimization Portfolio Analytics For Application Developers and In-House Analytics Teams Business Rules Management: FICO Blaze Advisor Model Development: Model Builder Optimization: Decision Optimizer Xpress-MP Suite Analytic Consulting Business and Technology Consulting
Professional Services
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2009 FICO Corporation.
Smarter Decision
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LEADER
PARTNER
FICO is where the mathematical approach to problem-solving that is inherent in todays scores and analytics all began. William Blair & Company
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2009 FICO Corporation.
To Learn More
Webinar: Enabling COBIT and IT Governance through Business Rules September 9 FICO Decision Management Tools User Group September 16-18
Register at: www.fico.com/events
Agenda
Decisions & Uncertainty Predictive Analytics Model Builder Demonstration Analytics & Rules Decision Management Q&A
30
THANK YOU
Mac Belniak
847.873.3633 MacBelniak@FICO.com
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