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May 9, 2011
Gujarat Gas
Performance Highlights
Y/E Dec. (` cr) Net operating income EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Oil & Gas 4,605 0.7 454/260 8750 2 18,529 5,551 GGAS.BO GUJS@IN
514 129 25.2 82 3.0 (15.9) 463bp (12.2) 410 103 25.0 62 29.0 6.1 445bp 16.9
`359 `418
12 Months
1QCY11 4QCY10 % chg (qoq) 1QCY10 % chg (yoy) 529 109 20.6 72
Gujarat Gass (GGAS) 1QCY2011 PAT declined by 12.2% qoq to `72cr (`82cr) on lower gross spread. However, on a yoy basis, PAT grew by robust 16.9% during the quarter. We recommend Buy on the stock. Gross spread cools off sequentially on higher LNG price: For 1QCY2011, GGAS reported top-line growth of 29% yoy to `529cr (`410cr). Average realisations increased to `17.2/scm (`13.8/scm) during the quarter. Gross gas spread stood higher on a yoy basis. However, it cooled off sequentially to `4.6/scm (`5.4/scm) on account of higher cost of LNG procured to meet the companys gas requirements. Outlook and valuation: GGASs volumes during the quarter were supported by higher gas flow from RLNG, following lower supply from the PMT field. Thus, reliance on RLNG increased to support the companys volume growth. The company has also entered into a firm contract with British Gas (BG) to meet its growth requirements. The company continues to explore entering into such long-term RLNG contracts and, thus, soften supply-side constraints. Besides volume growth, to maintain margins, the company plans to price its gas to its various consumers, taking into consideration the pricing of alternative fuels. We believe through this strategy, the company will be able to maintain its volume growth and margins going ahead. Thus, we recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `418. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E Dec. (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg OPM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 65.1 9.4 16.0 9.5
3m 2.7 10.0
CY2009 1,420 9.1 174.2 8.4 19.7 13.6 26.4 6.0 23.6 24.4 2.9 14.9
CY2010 1,849 30.3 257.7 48.0 22.5 20.1 17.9 5.5 32.0 33.8 2.2 9.7
CY2011E 2,122 14.7 267.8 3.9 20.8 20.9 17.2 4.8 29.7 31.9 1.9 9.1
CY2012E 2,438 14.9 297.5 11.1 19.9 23.2 15.5 4.2 28.8 31.5 1.6 8.1
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 3935 7800 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
Amit Vora
Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 Ext: 6827 amit.vora@angelbroking.com
% chg (qoq) 3.0 12.3 (12.0) (15.9) 31.0 2.1 (51.4) (15.0) (20.4) (12.4) (43.8) (12.2)
% chg (yoy) 29.0 36.9 34.5 6.1 156.0 13.0 8.4 11.5 1.3 16.6 (31.3) 16.9
CY10 1849 1286 147 416 22.5 22 54 0 383 20.7 124 32.4 259 1 258 13.9
CY09 1420 1003 137 280 19.7 27 47 0 259 18.2 84 32.3 175 1 174 12.3
% chg (yoy) 30.3 28.2 7.5 48.7 (15.9) 14.4 238.7 48.2 48.7 48.0 48.4 48.0
Top line up 29% driven by higher realisation: For 1QCY2011, GGAS reported top-line growth of 29% yoy to `529cr (`410cr), driven by an increase in average realisations to `17.2/scm (`13.8/scm) during the quarter. Average realisation came in higher due to the price hike taken for all consumers over the last one year. Realisation also increased sequentially due to full effect of the price hike taken for industrial retail customers in the previous quarter and price hike for CNG and PNG consumers taken during the quarter.
(` cr)
200 100 -
Operating Revenues
May 9, 2011
(%)
300
RLNG offtake increases sequentially: During the quarter, there was lower gas supply sequentially from the PMT field. Thus, reliance on LNG increased to support the companys growth. On a yoy basis also, gas distribution volumes grew by 4.1% on account of higher RLNG volume offtake to 303mmscm (291mmscm). More than 8,700 vehicles were converted to CNG during the quarter, taking the total number of CNG vehicles now plying on natural gas in the companys markets to more than 144,000. OPM contracts by 445bp yoy and 463bp qoq to 20.6% on higher LNG prices: Sequentially, the companys OPM contracted by 463bp to 20.6% (25.2%) mainly on account of the decrease in gross gas spread, which cooled off to `4.6/scm during the quarter, and base effect of higher revenue. Gross gas spread cooled off on account of increased cost of LNG procured during the quarter. Similarly, on a yoy basis, OPM contracted by 445bp. Operating expenditure during the quarter increased by 34.5% yoy to `40.4cr (`30.1cr), wherein staff costs increased by 31% yoy to `14.1cr (`10.7cr) and other operating expenditure increased by 36.4% yoy to `26.4cr (`19.3cr). Thus, margin contraction led to operating profit increasing at a lower rate of 6.1% yoy to `109cr (`103cr).
(` cr)
60 40 20 1QCY10 2QCY10
Operating Profit
Depreciation cost increases, interest cost flat: Depreciation cost increased by 13% yoy to `14.5cr (`12.8cr) due to investments in the pipeline network, CNG and other infrastructure during the year. Interest costs during the quarter were negligible as the company utilises internal cash accruals to meet its working capital requirements and for expansions. PAT increases by 16.9% yoy to `72cr: Other income increased by 156% yoy to `10.1cr (`4cr), while the effective tax rate stood lower at 30.7% (33.8%). Thus, the companys bottom line increased by 16.9% yoy to `72cr (`61cr), despite lower OPM.
May 9, 2011
(%)
80
20.6
21.0
(` cr)
May 9, 2011
(%)
50
50.0
Investment arguments
Supply-side woes receding on improving domestic gas availability and LNG playing a crucial role: Over the last one year, the company registered steady growth in volumes, following improving availability of gas in the country and subdued RLNG prices. Although there have been some delays in receiving gas from KG-D6 on account of slow ramp-up of gas production, the company is ensuring that the shortfall in volume is compensated with higher RLNG procurement. The company recently re-entered into a firm RLNG agreement with BG for total supply of 1.2mmscmd. The company continues to explore entering such long-term RLNG contracts. Moreover, increased availability of domestic gas (RIL, along with BP, ramping up production from KG-D6 beyond 50mmscmd) would improve matters further. Gross spread to stabilise: Gross spread has edged higher over the last couple of years as the company provided large proportion of its incremental gas to the highmargin industrial retail customers. Thus, the company's profitability has been improving with its focus shifting to the high-margin retail business from bulk customers. Going ahead, we expect gross gas spread to stabilise at the current level as the company is able to pass through its gas cost to customers by proactively pricing it, taking into account the pricing of alternative fuels.
May 9, 2011
20.9 23.2
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Key ratios
Y/E December (` cr) Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis (%) EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) (0.4) (1.0) (0.5) (1.6) (0.6) (1.5) (0.7) (1.3) 782 (0.6) (1.3) 421 (0.6) (1.4) 418 2 5 25 66 (24) 2 5 26 63 (24) 2 5 27 62 (34) 2 4 25 48 (39) 2 4 28 52 (37) 2 5 29 60 (32) 31.7 39.0 30.2 23.4 28.3 25.1 24.4 29.0 23.6 33.8 39.0 32.0 31.9 36.7 29.7 31.5 38.8 28.8 17.1 67.1 1.9 21.8 21.8 14.9 69.3 1.6 16.6 16.6 16.4 67.7 1.5 16.8 16.8 19.5 67.6 1.7 23.1 23.1 17.9 66.8 1.8 21.5 21.5 17.1 66.8 1.9 22.2 22.2 11.9 11.9 14.9 1.5 44.5 12.5 12.5 15.8 1.5 55.3 13.6 13.6 17.3 8.0 59.7 20.1 20.1 24.3 12.0 65.9 20.9 20.9 25.7 10.0 74.9 23.2 23.2 28.4 10.0 86.3 30.1 24.1 8.1 0.4 1.6 8.2 2.7 28.7 22.7 6.5 0.4 1.5 8.2 2.1 26.4 20.8 6.0 2.2 2.9 14.9 4.2 17.9 14.8 5.5 3.3 2.2 9.7 3.6 17.2 13.9 4.8 2.8 1.9 9.1 3.3 15.5 12.6 4.2 2.8 1.6 8.1 2.8 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11E CY12E
May 9, 2011
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Gujarat Gas No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
May 9, 2011
11