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Economic Intelligence Service

Economi c Intelligenc e Se rv ice CMIE Monthly Review of the Indian Economy December 200

CMIE

Monthly Review of the Indian Economy

December

2009

Economic Intelligence Service

Monthly Review of the Indian Economy

December 2009

Economic Intelligence Service Monthly Review of the Indian Economy December 2009 CMIE C ENTRE F OR

CMIE

CENTRE FOR MONITORING INDIAN ECONOMY PVT LTD

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ii

Contents

  • 1. Executive Summary

1

  • 2. Annual Indicators

3

  • 3. Monthly Indicators

8

  • 4. GDP Growth

GDP growth revised upward to 6.7%

11

PFCE growth revised upward to 5%

15

GDP forecasts guarded but optimistic

16

 
  • 5. Inflation

17

  • 6. Interest Rates & Debt Market

Liquidity

22

Short Term Interest Rates

23

Long Term Interest Rates

25

  • 7. Balance of Payments

Exchange Rate

26

Current Account Balance

28

Capital Account Balance

29

  • 8. Public Finance

Central Government Finance

31

Government Debt Floatations

36

10.

Agriculture

Progress of Agriculture

37

Reservoir Levels

41

11.

Energy

Coal

42

Crude Oil

43

Electricity

45

12.

Infrastructure

Railways

46

Ports & Shipping

47

Civil Aviation

48

Telecommunications

49

  • 13. Industry

Industrial Production

50

Food Products

53

Textiles

54

Chemicals

55

Cement

56

Steel

57

Capital Goods

58

Consumer Durables

59

Transport Equipment

60

  • 14. Investment

62

  • 15. Corporate Sector

Financial Performance

63

Corporate Debt

67

Mergers & Acquisitions

68

  • 16. Capital Markets

Primary Capital Market

70

Secondary Capital Markets

71

Derivative Markets

73

Institutional Activity

74

Perceptions on Markets

75

Mutual Funds

76

  • 17. Money & Banking

Money Supply

77

Scheduled Commercial Banks

80

  • 18. Foreign Trade

84

  • 19. World Economy

87

Executive Summary

1

GDP Growth

Real GDP growth for 2009-10 is revised upwards to

  • 6.7 per cent from a 6.2 per cent projected earlier.

This revision was warranted because of less dam- age to the smaller crops than anticipated earlier. Performance of the industrial sector too has further improved in September 2009 and is expected to re- main healthy in the remaining months of 2009-10. Performance of railways also turned out to be better than expectations.

In the first half of 2009-10, the real GDP grew by a better-than-expected seven per cent, as compared to the 5.8 per cent growth recorded during the second half of 2008-09. The growth in the current year, however, was lower than the 7.8 per cent growth recorded in the first half of 2008-09.

Inflation

Inflation, measured by the WPI, during April- October 2009 was 0.4 per cent, as compared to 11

per cent in the same period of 2008. In the remain- ing five months of the current fiscal year, average inflation is expected to go up to 4.5 per cent. Thus, the average inflation for 2009-10 works out to 2.1 per cent. This will be significantly lower than the

  • 8.4 per cent recorded in the previous fiscal year.

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) came down between July 2009 and October 2009. It peaked at 11.9 per cent in July 2009, before gradually falling to 11.5 per cent in October 2009. Average inflation during April-October 2009 was higher at 10.5 per cent, as compared to 8.7 per cent in the same period of 2008.

Movement in short term interest rates of up to one year exhibited a mixed trend in November

  • 2009. While yields on 91-day treasury bills and on

overnight rates inched up, those on 182-day and 364- day T-bills eased a little. Any sharp upward move- ment is unlikely during the remaining months of the current financial year.

Money Supply and Banking

Money supply is expected to end financial year 2009- 10 with a 17 per cent growth compared to a 18.6 per cent growth in 2008-09. The slower growth in money supply in 2009-10 is on account of slower credit growth. We expect credit growth to be 12 per cent in 2009-10 compared to 17.5 per cent in 2008-09. Some of the effect of the sharp slowdown in credit growth on money supply will be offset by the very high government borrowing. Total gov- ernment borrowing, central and state, is scheduled to be much higher at Rs.5.8 lakh crore for 2009-10 compared to Rs.3.8 lakh crore in 2008-09.

Public Finance

Gross tax revenue was down by 7.6 per cent during April-October 2009, as against an impressive 20.3 per cent increase recorded in the same period of

  • 2008. Expenditure was up by 31.5 per cent. Gross

fiscal deficit reached Rs.2.45 lakh crore during April- October 2009, doubling from the Rs.1.17 lakh crore recorded in the same period a year ago. The drop in revenue receipts and surge in revenue expenditure led to a higher Rs.2.06 lakh crore deficit on revenue account.

Interest Rates

Interest rates continue to witness downward pres- sure due to the very slow credit growth, the com- paratively much faster deposit mobilisation and the consequent abundant liquidity in the banking sys- tem. The weighted average benchmark PLR of banks remained at 12.60 per cent by the end of November 2009.

Agriculture

Rabi acreage increased by 1.5 per cent by 26 Novem- ber 2009. Rabi sowings began late this season as kharif harvesting was delayed. Rabi acreage is likely to rise further. Rabi foodgrain production is pro- jected to rise by 1.3 per cent whereas kharif food- grain production is slated to fall by 19 per cent. To- tal foodgrain production is expected to decline by 9.7 per cent in 2009-10. Production of sugarcane,

2

Executive Summary

cotton and oilseeds is also slated to fall. In 2009-10, production of major agricultural crops is expected to decline by 7.5 per cent. However, output of mi- nor crops is projected to increase by two per cent. Consequently, total agricultural crop production is expected to fall by 3.9 per cent in 2009-10.

As crop production is projected to fall less sharply than anticipated, the GDP forecast of agricultural and allied products stands revised. We expect farm incomes to fall by 1.4 per cent against our earlier estimate of 3.7 per cent decline.

ity prices, cut in excise duty and softening of interest rates.

We expect the corporate profit growth to remain ro- bust at 43.4 per cent in the December 2009 quarter. However, PAT will fall by 6.3 per cent in the March 2010 quarter as profits of the petroleum products sector are expected to fall steeply. During 2009-10, corporate profits will rise by a robust 20.3 per cent. Sales will grow by a healthy 15.6 per cent in the sec- ond half of 2009-10 and the growth will average at four per cent for the entire year.

Industry & Investments

The Indian industry has recovered swiftly from the shock of the Global Liquidity Crisis. This is evident from the 6.5 per cent rise in the IIP in the first half of 2009-10. The manufacturing companies have also started building inventories in anticipation of a rise in demand. Looking at the healthy trend in the in- dustrial activity so far, we have scaled up forecast for industrial growth in 2009-10 to 7.7 per cent from 7.2 per cent.

While the consumption demand that got affected for a brief period last year has revived, the investment demand always remained healthy. Since the GLC hit India in October 2008, India saw high fresh an- nouncements of projects worth Rs.20.8 lakh crore. Projects went under implementation at an acceler- ated pace too. Projects worth Rs.1.8 lakh crore were commissioned in the second half of 2008-09 and an- other Rs.1.9 lakh crore during April-November 2009. Projects worth Rs.2.6 lakh crore are scheduled for completion during December-March 2009-10.

Corporate Sector

Corporate sales declined by 5.8 per cent in the first half of 2009-10. This was a reflection of the fall in prices of commodities, particularly that of petroleum products. However, the Indian corpo- rates strengthened their PAT by 27.9 per cent by retaining the partial benefits of the fall in commod-

Capital Market

The CMIE Overall Share Price Index (COSPI) rose by 7.6 per cent in November 2009. The highest gainer during the month was the CMIE minerals index, which rose by 33.8 per cent. Total Assets Under Management (AUM) of the mutual fund in- dustry swelled to Rs.7.7 lakh crore in October 2009, the highest since April 2004.

External Sector

Exports declined by 6.6 per cent in October 2009, the lowest decline since April 2009. Imports also de- clined less sharply by 15 per cent. As a result, trade deficit contracted to USD 8.8 billion in October 2009 from USD 11.7 billion in October 2008.

The exchange rate of the Indian currency is expected to average Rs. 47.7 for the year as a whole. It av- eraged Rs.48.11 during the first eight months of the year. It is expected to average Rs.47 per dollar dur- ing the remaining four months of 2009-10.

The current account of the balance of payments is likely to see a deficit of USD 8.9 billion during Oc- tober 2009-March 2010, marginally higher than the USD 8.3 billion during October 2008-March 2009. This is because although net invisibles earnings would be higher by USD 5.8 billion during October 2009-March 2010, the trade deficit would be higher by USD 6.4 billion during this period. Capital in- flows to the tune of USD 20.4 billion are expected to take place during October 2009-March 2010.

Indicators: Annual

3

Units

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Population & National Income

Population (as on 1 Oct)

mln. nos

1,040

1,056

1,072

1,089

1,106

1,122

1,138

1,154

GNP at current market prices

Rs. bln.

22,589 24,379 27,339 31,270 35,606 40,994 46,996

 

GDP at current market prices

Rs. bln.

22,790 24,546 27,546 31,494 35,867 41,292 47,234

53,218

GDP at factor cost (current prices)

Rs.

bln.

20,977 22,614 25,382 28,777 32,824 37,794 43,209

49,332

GDP at factor cost (const. prices)

% change

5.8

3.8

8.5

7.5

9.5

9.7

9.0

6.7

6.7

GNP: Per capita (current prices)

Rupees

21,720 23,086 25,503 28,715 32,194 36,537 41,297

 

GDP: Per capita (current prices)

Rupees

21,913 23,244 25,696 28,920 32,430 36,802 41,506

46,116

GDP: Per capita (const. prices)

Rupees

20,545 20,996 22,413 23,894 25,723 27,808 29,901

31,278

GDP: Per capita (const.

prices)

% change

3.1

2.2

6.8

6.6

7.7

8.1

7.5

4.6

Savings, Capital Formation & Consumption (current prices)

 

Gross domestic savings

% of GDP

23.5

26.3

29.8

31.7

34.2

35.7

37.7

Gross domestic capital formation

% of GDP

24.2

25.2

26.8

31.6

34.8

36.4

38.7

39.7

Pvt capital formation

% of GDP

17.3

19.1

20.5

24.7

27.2

28.4

29.6

Public sector capital formation

% of GDP

6.9

6.1

6.3

6.9

7.6

8.0

9.1

Consumption Expenditure

% of GDP

76.7

75.1

73.0

69.2

67.8

66.1

65.1

66.3

Pvt. final cons. exp.

% of GDP

64.4

63.2

61.7

58.4

57.4

55.9

55.0

54.7

Govt. final cons. exp.

% of GDP

12.4

11.9

11.3

10.7

10.5

10.2

10.1

11.6

Per capita pvt. final cons. exp.

Rupees

14,138 14,703 15,891 16,971 18,665 20,676 22,899

Value Added (Constant prices) Agriculture

% change

6.3

-7.2

10.0

5.8

4.0

4.9

1.6

-1.4

Industry (incl. construction)

% change

2.7

7.1

7.4

10.3

10.2

11.0

8.1

3.9

7.8

Service

% change

7.2

7.5

8.5

9.1

10.6

11.2

10.9

9.7

8.6

GDP (PPP)

bln.

2,375

2,574

2,773

2,930

Per capita GDP (PPP)

2,420

2,580

2,730

2,840

Industry

Index of industrial production

% change

2.6

5.8

7.0

8.4

8.2

11.5

8.5

2.6

7.7

Mining & quarrying

% change

0.5

5.8

5.3

4.4

1.0

5.3

5.1

2.6

10.6

Electricity

% change

3.1

3.2

5.0

5.2

5.2

7.3

6.3

2.8

5.9

Manufacturing

% change

2.9

6.0

7.4

9.1

9.1

12.5

9.0

2.6

7.5

Fertilisers

% change

-0.8

-1.0

-1.0

7.5

-1.4

6.5

-9.2

-2.2

10.0

Finished Steel

% change

4.7

9.9

9.8

11.8

7.4

13.1

6.2

0.4

6.5

Cement

% change

9.4

8.7

5.5

8.6

11.2

9.8

8.1

7.8

13.0

Automobiles

% change

5.2

9.0

19.7

15.1

10.2

10.4

7.2

2.6

9.7

Basic goods

% change

2.4

4.8

5.5

5.5

6.7

10.3

7.0

2.6

Capital goods

% change

-3.4

10.5

13.6

13.9

15.7

18.2

18.0

7.0

Consumer goods

% change

6.0

7.1

7.2

11.7

12.0

10.1

6.1

4.6

Intermediate goods

% change

1.6

3.9

6.4

6.1

2.5

12.0

8.9

-2.0

Value of Output(Organised sector) Rs. bln.

10,759 12,000 13,701 15,947 18,051 21,485 24,598

 

Gross value added:

Factory sector

Rs.

bln.

2,137

2,357

2,653

3,126

3,604

4,285

4,886

Gross value added: Non-Fact. sector

Rs. bln.

1,016

1,103

1,232

1,410

1,593

1,891

2,166

Transport

Railways: freight traffic

mln.

tns.

492.5

518.7

557.4

602.1

666.5

727.8

793.9

850.0

922.3

Cargo handled at major ports

mln. tns.

287.6

313.5

344.8

383.7

423.6

463.8

519.3

530.4

558.0

 

)

4

Indicators: Annual

 

Units

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Energy

Commercial energy production

% change

3.1

3.8

5.0

4.9

4.4

5.2

3.7

Commercial energy availability

% change

2.3

4.2

5.1

5.5

5.3

5.9

Coal Production (excl. lignite)

mln. tns

327.8

341.3

361.2

382.6

407.0

430.8

457.1

487.3

527.7

Coal imports

mln. tns

20.5

23.3

21.7

29.0

38.6

43.1

49.8

Power capacity

MW

1,05,046 1,07,877 1,12,684 1,18,426 1,24,287 1,23,572 1,30,557

 

Electricity generation (Pub Ut.)

bln. KwH

517.4

532.7

565.1

594.5

623.8

662.5

704.5

719.3

761.7

Thermal & nuclear

bln.

KwH

439.9

468.7

489.9

505.3

515.7

546.1

575.8

Hydel

bln. KwH

73.1

64.0

75.2

84.6

101.5

113.4 123.4

 

T & D losses

per cent

32.5

32.5

31.3

30.4

Crude oil production

mln. tns.

32.0

33.0

33.4

34.0

32.2

34.0

34.1

33.5

34.8

Crude oil imports

mln. tns.

78.7

82.0

90.4

95.9

99.4

111.5

121.7

Petroleum products imports

mln. tns.

7.0

7.2

8.0

8.8

11.7

17.7

22.7

Consumption of petro. products

mln. tns.

107.7

111.8

116.0

120.2

122.4

131.7

128.9

133.4

Consumption of petro.

products

% change

0.7

3.8

3.8

3.6

1.8

7.6

-2.1

3.5

Natural gas gross production

bln cu. mtrs

29.7

31.4

32.0

31.8

32.2

31.7

32.4

32.8

47.5

Natural gas net production

bln cu. mtrs

28.0

30.0

30.9

30.8

31.3

30.8

31.4

Agriculture

Production

Foodgrain

mln. tns.

212.9

174.8

213.2

198.4

208.6

217.3

230.8

233.9

213.4

Rice

mln. tns.

93.3

71.8

88.5

83.1

91.8

93.4

96.7

99.2

81.0

Wheat

mln. tns.

72.8

65.8

72.2

68.6

69.4

75.8

78.6

80.6

81.5

Cereals

mln. tns.

199.5

163.6

198.3

185.2

195.2

203.1

216.0

219.2

198.2

Pulses

mln. tns.

13.4

11.1

14.9

13.1

13.4

14.2

14.8

14.7

15.0

Kharif foodgrains

mln.

tns.

112.1

87.2

117.0

103.3

109.9

110.6

121.0

117.7

Rabi foodgrains

mln. tns.

100.8

87.5

96.2

95.1

98.7

106.7

109.8

116.2

Oilseeds

mln. tns.

20.7

14.8

25.2

24.4

28.0

24.3

29.8

28.2

25.8

Sugar cane

mln. tns.

297.2

287.4

233.9

237.1

281.2

355.5

348.2

273.9

251.6

Gross Irrigated Area/ gross crop area per cent

41.5

41.9

41.0

41.8

42.9

Fertilizer consumption

Kg/hectares

91.5

91.7

88.4

96.2

105.6

111.8

Yield

Foodgrain

kg/hectare

1734

1535

1727

1652

1716

1756

1860

Kharif foodgrains

kg/hectare

1510

1272

1551

1430

1511

1522

1644

Rabi foodgrains

kg/hectare

2076

1933

2003

1988

2020

2091

2174

Agricultural production

% change

8.0

-16.3

22.0

-3.1

7.6

3.5

6.7

-1.5

-7.5

Foodgrain

% change

8.9

-18.6

22.5

-7.0

5.9

3.9

5.6

1.4

-9.7

Non-Foodgrain

% change

6.7

-12.6

21.4

2.6

9.8

2.9

8.1

-5.1

-4.6

Per capita availability of foodgrain kg/p.a.

151.9

180.4

159.7

168.9

154.2

162.2

VOP Agriculture

Rs. bln.

4,062

3,865

4,525

4,581

5,241

5,744

6,538

VOP Livestock

Rs. bln.

1,472

1,541

1,630

1,802

1,964

2,140

2,406

VOP Fishing

Rs. bln.

274

300

317

322

369

392

422

VOP Forestry

Rs. bln.

232

234

249

259

294

310

323

Employment (Organised)

 

Public sector

mln. nos.

18.8

18.6

18.2

18.0

18.2

Private sector

mln. nos.

8.4

8.4

8.2

8.4

8.8

Registered jobseekers

mln. nos.

41.6

40.7

40.9

39.7

40.0

41.4

38.9

 

)

Indicators: Annual

5

 

Units

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Corporate Sector (Non-financial Cos.)

 

Sales

% change

2.49

10.29

15.23

20.11

16.88

22.84

17.33

14.40

Public Sector

% change

2.65

12.28

13.22

15.78

16.82

16.76

11.74

15.49

Private Sector

% change

2.39

8.78

16.76

23.27

16.92

27.22

20.85

13.77

Gross Fixed Assets

% change

9.92

8.22

8.00

10.15

11.42

14.20

12.92

13.30

Public Sector

% change

8.86

9.67

8.23

10.60

6.16

8.79

8.46

5.08

Private Sector

% change

10.78

6.97

7.78

9.75

16.10

18.80

16.32

18.78

PBDIT

% change

4.79

16.73

18.11

21.30

15.50

30.66

21.18

-2.39

Public Sector

% change

11.68

22.04

14.34

15.41

7.81

15.03

9.77

-2.32

Private Sector

% change

-0.45

11.94

21.81

26.70

21.96

42.51

28.05

-2.43

Profit after tax

% change

-8.52

88.53

78.92

59.43

24.27

40.10

21.35

-16.41

Public Sector

% change

36.94

75.29

48.24

41.97

7.17

14.42

2.15

-13.81

Private Sector

% change

-49.38 114.52 129.55

79.09

40.03

58.63

31.60

-17.58

PBDIT/Sales

% change

13.49

14.19

14.62

14.82

14.76

15.66

16.44

14.22

Public Sector

% change

14.97

16.05

16.52

16.60

15.36

14.93

15.20

13.29

Private Sector

% change

12.44

12.74

13.23

13.61

14.35

16.14

17.16

14.75

PAT/Sales

% change

1.80

2.57

4.21

5.52

6.04

6.92

7.35

5.50

Public Sector

% change

3.07

3.61

5.12

6.40

6.10

5.95

5.85

4.78

Private Sector

% change

0.90

1.76

3.54

4.91

6.00

7.56

8.22

5.92

Debt/Equity

% change

1.17

1.13

1.01

0.92

0.85

0.81

0.73

0.76

Public Sector

% change

1.06

1.04

0.88

0.82

0.79

0.73

0.62

0.61

Private Sector

% change

1.24

1.21

1.12

1.01

0.90

0.87

0.78

0.84

VOP/GFA

% change

1.28

1.27

1.36

1.47

1.55

1.66

1.67

1.67

Public Sector

% change

1.18

1.16

1.20

1.24

1.37

1.47

1.44

1.58

Private Sector

% change

1.36

1.36

1.50

1.68

1.71

1.82

1.84

1.73

Capital Markets

Capital Issues

Rs. bln.

494.0

446.1

541.7

635.2

812.3 1238.4 1820.0

1068.3

Public Sector

Rs. bln.

314.3

309.0

401.3

323.4

472.8

424.3

637.2

372.3

Private Sector

Rs. bln.

174.6

136.2

140.4

311.8

339.4

814.2 1182.8

695.9

Equity

Rs. bln.

97.8

103.8

235.1

321.0

345.9

802.8 1344.6

321.8

Debt

Rs. bln.

396.2

342.3

306.6

314.2

466.4

435.7

461.9

537.7

GDRs/ADRs/ECBs/(floatations)

mln.

494.9

188.3

993.2 3406.4 9028.4 2334.2 7921.8

288.4

GDRs/ADRs

mln.

494.9

188.3

271.4

826.0 3565.4

794.4 7910.6

288.4

ECBs/FRNs

mln.

721.9 2569.0 4882.9 1539.8

 

Secondary Market

No. of companies listed

Returns on the CMIE Overall

Number

5756

5643

5536

4792

4852

4908

4992

5044

Market cap. all listed companies

Rs. bln.

7421

7241

13764

18775

32142

36909

52972

32240

Market Capitalisation

% of GDP

32.6

29.5

50.0

59.6

89.6

89.4

112.1

60.6

Share Price Index

per cent

8.8

5.4

115.7

28.1

71.2

10.2

30.1

-41.2

Trading volumes on BSE

Rs. bln.

3049

3136

5033

5185

8159

9497

15786

10993

Trading volumes on NSE

Rs. bln.

5132

6180

10995

11401

15696

19453

35510

27520

Public Finance (Centre, State & UTs)

 

Government receipts

Rs.

bln.

6154

7220

8159

9727

10566

12185

Government expenditure

Rs.

bln.

6809

7251

8033

8961

10740

12153

Plan outlay

Rs. bln.

1863

2102

2248

1931

2472

3135

Finances of Central Govt.

 

Revenue receipts

Rs. bln.

2013

2308

2638

3060

3471

4344

5419

5622

6096

Tax receipt

Rs. bln.

1871

2163

2543

3050

3662

4735

5931

6279

6713

Direct Tax

Rs. bln.

691

829

1050

1320

1573

2195

2956

3446

3796

(% of GDP)

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.4

5.3

6.3

Indirect Tax

Rs. bln.

1180

1333

1494

1729

2088

2540

2976

2833

2917

(% of GDP)

5.2

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.8

6.2

6.3

 

)

6

Indicators: Annual

 

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Expenditure

Units Rs. bln.

3623

4132

4712

4983

5057

5834

7127

9010

9532

(% of GDP)

15.9

16.8

17.1

15.8

14.1

14.1

15.1

Plan expenditure

Rs. bln.

1012

1115

1223

1323

1406

1699

2051

2830

2851

% of Exp.

27.9

27.0

26.0

26.6

27.8

29.1

28.8

31.4

29.9

Non-plan expenditure

Rs. bln.

2611

3018

3489

3660

3651

4135

5076

6180

6681

% of Exp.

72.1

73.0

74.0

73.4

72.2

70.9

71.2

68.6

70.1

Subsidies

Rs. bln.

312

435

443

460

475

571

709

1292

1009

(% of Exp)

8.6

10.5

9.4

9.2

9.4

9.8

10.0

14.3

10.6

Defence

Rs. bln.

543

557

601

759

805

855

917

1711

1417

(% of Exp)

15.0

13.5

12.7

15.2

15.9

14.7

12.9

19.0

14.9

Interest

Rs. bln.

1075

1178

1241

1269

1326

1503

1710

1927

2255

(% of Exp)

29.7

28.5

26.3

25.5

26.2

25.8

24.0

21.4

23.7

Budget Deficit

Rs.Bln.

-15

Revenue Deficit

Rs.Bln.

1002

1079

983

783

923

802

526

2413

2385

Gross Fiscal Deficit

Rs.Bln.

1410

1451

1233

1258

1464

1426

1269

3265

3328

(% of GDP)

6.2

5.9

4.5

4.0

4.1

3.5

2.7

Outstanding internal debt

Rs. bln.

9131

10207

11417

12759

13897

15450

18441

19725

% of GDP

40.0

41.4

41.4

40.5

38.8

37.3

Money, Banking & Interest Rates

 

Money supply (M3)

% change

14.1

14.7

16.7

12.3

21.2

21.5

21.2

18.6

18.0

SCB’s Deposits

Rs. bln.

11,034 13,118 15,423 17,086 21,090 26,119 31,969

38,341

% change

11.5

18.9

17.6

10.8

23.4

23.8

22.4

19.9

SCB’s Credit

Rs. bln.

5,897

7,464

8,656 10,920 15,071 19,312 23,619

27,755

% change

11.4

26.6

16.0

26.2

38.0

28.1

22.3

17.5

20.0

Non–food credit

Rs. bln.

5,357

6,970

8,291 10,505 14,664 18,847 23,175

27,293

% change

9.4

30.1

18.9

26.7

39.6

28.5

23.0

17.8

16.0

Bank rate (March-end)

per cent

6.5

6.3

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

Interest on deposits (maximum)

per cent

8.5

6.3

5.5

6.3

7.0

9.0

9.0

8.8

Prime lending rates (maximum)

per cent

12.0

11.5

11.0

10.8

10.8

12.5

12.8

12.5

Prices (Annual Averages)

Wholesale price index

All Commodities

% change

3.7

3.4

5.4

6.4

4.4

5.4

4.7

8.3

2.1

Primary Articles

% change

3.7

3.3

4.2

3.7

2.9

7.8

7.7

10.0

8.5

Fuel, Power & Lubricant

% change

9.1

5.6

6.3

10.0

9.5

5.6

1.0

7.4

-2.9

Manufactured Products

% change

1.9

2.7

5.6

6.3

3.1

4.4

5.0

8.0

1.1

Prices (Annual Averages) Consumer price index IW-General Index

% change

4.3

4.0

3.9

3.8

4.4

6.7

6.2

9.1

10.9

AL-General Index

% change

1.1

3.2

3.9

2.4

4.0

7.8

7.5

10.2

UNME-General Index

% change

5.1

3.8

3.7

3.6

4.7

6.6

5.9

8.9

External Transactions

Exports

mln.

43,958

52,823

63,886

83,502 1,03,075 1,26,276 1,62,988 1,82,922 1,63,000

% change

-0.4

20.2

20.9

30.7

23.4

22.5

29.1

12.2

-11.0

Agro products

mln.

5,919

6,723

7,538

8,471 10,212 12,675 18,442

17,562

Ores & minerals

mln.

1,266

2,000

2,370

5,076

6,163

6,998

9,124

7,812

Manufactured goods

mln.

33,469 40,324 48,525 60,706 72,552 84,863 1,03,032 1,23,008

 

Imports

mln.

51,567

61,533

78,203 1,11,472 1,49,144 1,85,081 2,49,791 2,90,667 2,67,000

% change

3.0

19.3

27.1

42.5

33.8

24.1

35.0

16.4

-8.2

POL

mln.

14,042 17,674 20,584 29,832 43,957 57,068 79,659

91,328

72,000

Non–POL

mln.

37,525

43,859

57,619

81,640 1,05,187 1,28,014 1,70,132 1,99,339 1,95,000

Trade balance: DGCI&S

mln.

-7,609 -8,710 -14,317 -27,970 -46,069 -58,805 -86,803 -1,07,745 -1,04,000

Trade balance: RBI

mln.

-11,574 -10,690 -13,718 -33,702 -51,904 -61,782 -91,626 -1,19,403

Gross invisible earnings

mln.

36,737 41,925 53,508 69,533 89,687 1,14,558 1,48,604 1,62,556

 

Net invisibles

mln.

14,974 17,035 27,801 31,232 42,002 52,217 74,592

89,586

90427

Current account balance

mln.

3,400

6,345 14,083

-2,470

-9,902

-9,565 -17,034 -29,817

-16260

 

)

Indicators: Annual

7

 

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Exports

Units % of GDP

9.2

10.4

10.6

11.9

12.7

13.8

13.9

15.8

Imports

% of GDP

10.8

12.1

13.0

15.9

18.4

20.3

21.3

25.1

Current account balance

% of GDP

0.7

1.2

2.3

-0.4

-1.2

-1.1

-1.5

-2.5

-1.3

Tourist arrivals

mln. nos.

2.38

2.45

2.93

3.60

4.10

4.67

5.27

5.13

Foreign Capital Inflow (net)

mln.

8,551 10,840 16,736 28,022 25,470 45,203 1,07,993

9,146

35766

Foreign aid (net)

mln.

1,117

-3,128

-2,858

1,923

1,702

1,775

2,114

2,638

3,185

External comm. borrowings (net) mln.

-1,585

-1,692

-2,925

5,194

2,508 16,103 22,633

8,158

1644

NRI deposits (net)

mln.

2,754

2,978

3,642

-964

2,789

4,321

179

4,290

5017

FDI

mln.

6,125

5,036

4,322

5,987

8,901 22,739 34,236

34,982

Portfolio investments

mln.

2,021

979 11,356

9,311 12,494

7,004 29,394 -13,855

 

Others

mln.

-1,881

6,667

3,199

6,571

-2,924

-6,739 19,437 -27,067

Debt servicing

mln.

11,115 15,239 19,165

9,155 19,560 11,404 14,946

15,430

Repayments

mln.

6,776 11,530 14,614

6,117 14,341

5,936

8,339

8,912

Interest payments

mln.

4,339

3,709

4,551

3,038

5,219

5,468

6,607

6,518

Outstanding external debt

mln.