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1QFY2012 Result Update | Steel

August 2, 2011

Sarda Energy and Minerals


Performance highlights

BUY
CMP Target Price `198 `259
12 months
4QFY11 245 31 12.8 9 % chg (qoq) 3.8 16.6 158bp 56.0

Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj. net profit

1QFY12 254 37 14.4 14

1QFY11 217 50 23.0 27

% chg (yoy) 17.2 (26.6) (857)bp (48.3)

Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code

Steel 709 1.7 382/183 80311 10 18,110 5,467 SAEM.BO SEML@IN

Source: Company, Angel Research

For 1QFY2012, Sarda Energy and Minerals (SEML) reported net sales growth of 17.2% yoy to `254cr. However, adjusted net profit declined by 48.3% yoy to `14cr due to higher costs. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Ferro alloy segment drags SEMLs 1QFY2012 profitability: During 1QFY2012, SEMLs net sales grew by 17.2% yoy to `254cr due to higher realisation in the steel segment coupled with higher sales volume of billets, ingots and power. Blended steel realisation grew by 96.1% yoy to `33,036/tonne on account of improved product mix. EBITDA margin declined substantially by 857bp yoy to 14.4% mainly on account of higher raw-material costs. Thus, EBITDA declined by 26.6% yoy to `37cr. EBIT of the ferro alloys segment declined by 73.0% yoy to `7cr on account of lower realisation coupled with higher prices of key inputs. Interest costs for the quarter increased by 112.6% yoy to `6cr, owing to which adjusted net profit declined by 48.3% yoy to `14cr. Outlook and valuation: We continue to believe that SEML is well poised to benefit from a) backward integration into coal and iron ore, b) commercial production of pellets and c) increased power and ferro alloy production. Moreover, firm sponge iron and billet prices should lead to higher capacity utilisation in FY2012 and FY2013, thereby leading to higher sales volumes. A key catalyst for the stock would be restarting of its iron ore operations at Rajnandgaon. We recommend Buy with a target price of `259, valuing the stock at 5.5x FY2013E EV/EBITDA.

Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 66.5 7.2 7.0 19.3

Abs. (%) Sensex SEML

3m (4.7)

1yr 0.2

3yr 23.6 (36.0)

(25.8) (23.9)

Key financials (Standalone)


Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg FDEPS (`) OPM (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research

FY2010 523 (44.9) 18 (89.0) 5.4 14.7 36.4 1.2 11.7 3.6 2.1 14.4

FY2011E 875 67.4 43 133.3 12.0 13.4 16.4 1.0 7.9 4.9 1.3 9.6

FY2012E 992 13.3 88 103.7 23.3 17.6 8.5 0.9 12.0 8.7 1.1 6.3

FY2013E 1,070 7.9 104 18.5 27.7 20.8 7.1 0.8 12.8 9.5 0.9 4.5

Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821 E-mail: Bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Sarda Energy | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 1: 1QFY2012 performance (Standalone)


Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Raw material % of net sales Power & Fuel % of net sales Staff cost % of net sales Other expenditure % of net sales Total expenditure % of net sales Operating profit OPM (%) Other operating income EBITDA EBITDA margins (%) Interest Depreciation Other income Exceptional items Profit before tax % of net sales Tax % of PBT Adj. Profit after tax
Source: Company, Angel Research

1QFY12 254 170 67.0 4 1.4 9 3.6 34 13.6 217 85.6 37 14.4 37 14.4 6 14 2 (3) 16 6.1 5 29.4 14

1QFY11 217 131 60.7 1 0.4 7 3.5 27 12.5 167 77.0 50 23.0 50 23.0 3 14 1 (14) 21 9.5 7 33.2 27

yoy % 17.2 29.4 273.4 23.4 27.6 30.2 (26.6) (26.6) 112.6 6.2 181.0 (24.6) (33.4) (48.3)

FY2011 875 579 66.2 10 1.2 31 3.5 137 15.7 758 86.6 117 13.4 117 13.4 15 58 20 7 71 8.1 22 30.6 43

FY2010 523 369 70.6 4 0.8 19 3.7 53 10.2 446 85.3 77 14.7 77 14.7 13 39 7 45 77 14.8 14 18.1 18

yoy % 67.4 57.1 131.8 58.7 157.4 69.9 52.7 52.7 19.4 48.5 173.2 (8.3) 54.7 133.5

Exhibit 2: Quarterly production volume


(tonnes) Sponge iron Billets+ ingots Ferro alloys Power (mn units) Pellet Wire rods
Source: Company, Angel Research

3QFY10 51,561 4,951 11,630 110 -

4QFY10 59,112 3,168 13,522 104 -

1QFY11 50,329 2,218 14,463 104 54,615 -

2QFY11 59,353 23,864 15,994 104 18,741 4,003

3QFY11 51,466 26,624 16,195 112 45,848 12,899

4QFY11 57,995 28,133 14,580 148 54,464 23,355

1QFY12 61,914 23,425 13,876 140 56,144 9,979

yoy % 23.0 956.1 (4.1) 33.9 2.8 -

qoq % 6.8 (16.7) (4.8) (5.6) 3.1 (57.3)

August 2, 2011

Sarda Energy | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 3: Quarterly sales volume


(tonnes) Sponge Iron Billets+ingots Ferro alloys Power (mn units) Wire rods Pellet Source: Company, Angel Research 3QFY10 45,206 4,957 11,252 38 4QFY10 54,298 2,564 11,525 21 1QFY11 51,229 5,104 13,800 21 2QFY11 32,832 17,078 15,217 3 1,932 3QFY11 23,937 11,644 16,441 7 13,881 4QFY11 30,579 5,611 16,016 42 19,037 3,705 1QFY12 39,356 9,716 14,622 40 12,237 15,671 yoy % (23.2) 90.4 6.0 92.7 qoq % 28.7 73.2 (8.7) (5.1) (35.7) 323.0

Exhibit 4: Quarterly segment-wise sales performance


(` cr) Steel Ferro Alloys Others Less: Intersegment Net sales Source: Company, Angel Research 3QFY10 72 65 18 (0) 155 4QFY10 94 75 9 (0) 178 1QFY11 95 113 10 (0) 218 2QFY11 99 103 1 (2) 200 3QFY11 109 105 15 (15) 214 4QFY11 139 92 15 (2) 245 1QFY12 162 79 14 (1) 254 yoy % 70.8 (30.2) 44.5 1,100.7 16.7 qoq % 16.5 (14.9) (1.6) (26.4) 3.8

Exhibit 5: Quarterly segment-wise EBIT performance


(` cr) Steel Ferro Alloys EBIT 3QFY10 1 22 23 4QFY10 10 21 30 1QFY11 16 26 43 2QFY11 4 14 17 3QFY11 11 9 19 4QFY11 18 6 24 1QFY12 22 7 29 yoy % 35.1 (73.0) (31.8) qoq % 23.4 18.8 22.3

Source: Company, Angel Research

Revenue growth driven by higher steel sales


During the quarter, SEMLs net sales grew by 17.2% yoy to `254cr due to higher realisation in the steel segment coupled with higher sales volume of billets, ingots and power. Blended steel realisation grew by 96.1% yoy to `33,036/tonne on account of improved product mix. Billets and ingots sales volumes increased by 90.4% yoy to 9,716 tonnes, while ferro alloy sales volume grew by 6.0% yoy to 14,622 tonnes in 1QFY2012. Power sales volume also increased by 92.7% yoy to 40mn units. The company also sold 15,671 tonnes of pellets in 1QFY2012. However, sponge iron sales volume declined by 23.2% yoy to 39,356 tonnes, as SEML used sponge iron captively in its steel billets production.

August 2, 2011

Sarda Energy | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 6: Quarterly revenue trend


300 250 200 154 102 174 217 200 214 245 254 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 (20)

(` cr)

100 50 0

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

Net revenue (LHS)

yoy change (RHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Ferro alloy segment drags SEMLs 1QFY2012 profitability


EBITDA margin declined substantially by 857bp yoy to 14.4% mainly on account of higher raw-material costs, which, as a percentage of net sales, increased to 67.0% (60.7% in 1QFY2011). Thus, EBITDA declined by 26.6% yoy to `37cr. EBIT of the ferro alloys segment declined by 73.0% yoy to `7cr on account of lower realisation coupled with higher prices of key inputs.

Exhibit 7: Quarterly EBITDA trend


60 50 40 31 35 21 50 37 25 20 31 16 6 15 10 5 0

(` cr)

20 10 0

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

EBITDA (LHS)

EBITDA margin (RHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Interest costs drag net profit even lower


Interest costs for the quarter increased by 112.6% yoy to `6cr, owing to which adjusted net profit declined by 48.3% yoy to `14cr.

August 2, 2011

1QFY12

(%)

30

1QFY12

(%)

150

Sarda Energy | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 8: Quarterly net profit trend


30 25 20 15 10 5 0 (5) (10) (4) 1 13 17 9 5 14 27 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 (2) (4) (6)

(` cr)

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

Adj. Net profit(LHS)

Adj. Net margin (RHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Investment rationale
Captive iron ore mine expected to restart soon: In the recent past, SEML has not been able to procure iron ore from its captive mine at Rajnandgaon on account of Naxal activity in the region. Although there is lack of clarity on the timeline for the re-commencement of this mine, we believe commencement of production from iron ore should result in significant savings. Pellet production to lower raw-material costs: SEML started commercial production of its 0.6mn tonne pellet plant in April 2010 and, over the last six months, structural problems have also been successfully resolved. Moreover, domestic prices of iron ore and pellets have risen sharply in the past one year. Hence, we expect significant cost savings for the company on account of captive pellet production. Power capacity to increase: SEML plans to set up a greenfield power plant of 350MW at Raigarh in two phases. The company has already acquired 250 acres. Although the public hearing is already complete, the consent to establish is pending yet. We have not factored the financial estimates from this power plant in our forecast model, as there are a few regulatory hurdles to be cleared.

August 2, 2011

1QFY12

(%)

Sarda Energy | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Outlook and valuation


We continue to believe that SEML is well poised to benefit from a) backward integration into coal and iron ore, b) commercial production of pellets and c) increased power and ferro alloy production. Moreover, firm sponge iron and billet prices should lead to higher capacity utilisation in FY2012 and FY2013, thereby leading to higher sales volumes. A key catalyst for the stock would be restarting of its iron ore operations at Rajnandgaon. We recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `259, valuing the stock at 5.5x FY2013E EV/EBITDA. We have lowered our profitability estimates for FY2011 and FY2012 to account for rising iron ore prices and lower margins in the ferro alloy segment.

Exhibit 9: Key assumptions


(` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PBT PAT PAT margin (%) Earlier estimates FY12 953 205 21.5 145 102 10.7 FY13 1,013 244 24.1 177 124 12.3 Revised estimates FY12 992 174 17.6 125 88 8.9 FY13 1,070 222 20.8 148 104 9.7 Upgrade/(downgrade) (%) FY12 4.1 (15.0) (394)bp (13.8) (13.8) (184)bp FY13 5.6 (8.9) (331)bp (16.2) (16.2) (254)bp

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 10: EV/EBITDA


3,500 3,000 2,500
(` cr)

2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Apr-03Feb-04Dec-04Oct-05Aug-06Jun-07 Apr-08Feb-09Dec-09Oct-10Aug-11 2x 5x 8x 11x 14x

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

August 2, 2011

Sarda Energy | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 11: P/E band


1,000 800 600

(`)
400 200 0 Apr-03Jan-04Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06Jan-07Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09Jan-10Oct-10 Jul-11
5x 10x 15x 20x

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 12: P/BV band


900 800 700 600
(`)

500 400 300 200 100 0 Apr-02 Mar-03 Feb-04 Jan-05 Dec-05Nov-06Oct-07 Sep-08Aug-09 Jul-10 Jun-11
1x 2x 3x 4x

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 13: Recommendation summary


Companies SAIL Tata Steel JSW Steel Bhushan Steel Monnet Ispat GPIL SEML CMP Target price Reco. (`) 118 564 674 375 494 157 198 (`) 139 Buy 799 Buy 947 Buy - Neutral - Neutral 225 Buy 259 Buy Mcap Upside (` cr) 48,677 54,095 15,045 7,961 3,180 497 709 18 42 40 44 31 P/E (x) 11.1 8.2 7.7 9.1 11.9 3.8 8.5 8.8 6.5 5.9 9.1 8.8 2.9 7.1 P/BV (x) 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.9 6.6 5.1 8.1 11.9 3.9 6.3 6.0 6.0 4.2 7.1 8.3 2.9 4.5 RoE (%) 11.2 17.2 12.7 16.1 11.8 17.6 12.0 12.8 18.6 14.7 14.0 15.3 19.4 12.8 RoCE (%) 9.2 11.8 10.9 8.6 7.5 13.8 8.7 10.9 13.1 13.0 7.9 10.1 17.0 9.5 (%) FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E

Source: Company, Angel Research

August 2, 2011

Sarda Energy | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Profit & Loss Statement (Standalone)


Y/E March (` cr) Gross sales Less: Excise duty Net Sales Other operating income Total operating income % chg Total Expenditure Net Raw Materials Other Mfg costs Personnel Other EBITDA % chg (% of Net Sales) Depreciation EBIT % chg (% of Net Sales) Interest & other Charges Other Income (% of PBT) Share in profit of Associates Recurring PBT % chg Extraordinary Inc/(Expense) PBT (reported) Tax (% of PBT) PAT (reported) Add: Share of earnings of asso. Less: Minority interest (MI) Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) PAT after MI (reported) ADJ. PAT % chg (% of Net Sales) Basic EPS (`) Fully Diluted EPS (`) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E 703 (78) 625 625 71.6 456 384 61 11 168 145.3 26.9 22 146 217.3 23.4 12 5 3.6 139 174.1 139 18 12.8 121 121 121 185.1 19.4 35.6 35.4 1,032 (83) 949 949 51.8 726 618 91 17 223 32.4 23.5 28 195 33.4 20.6 5 4 1.9 194 39.6 (45) 149 26 17.4 123 123 168 38.7 17.7 49.4 49.0 556 (33) 523 523 (44.9) 446 369 58 19 77 (65.6) 14.7 39 38 (80.6) 7.3 13 7 22.4 32 (83.3) 45 77 14 18.1 63 63 18 (89.0) 3.5 5.4 5.4 946 (71) 875 875 67.4 758 579 148 31 117 52.7 13.4 58 60 56.9 6.8 15 20 31.0 64 97.6 6.5 71 21 29.8 50 50 43 133.3 4.9 12.0 12.0 1,072 (80) 992 992 13.3 817 661 131 26 174 48.7 17.6 48 126 112.1 12.7 23 22 17.5 125 95.0 125 37 29.8 88 88 88 103.7 8.9 24.5 23.3 1,156 (87) 1,070 1,070 7.9 847 678 141 28 222 27.7 20.8 74 148 17.5 13.9 24 24 16.2 148 18.5 148 44 29.8 104 104 104 18.5 9.7 29.0 27.7

August 2, 2011

Sarda Energy | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Balance Sheet (Standalone)


Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Share Warrants Minority Interest Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Other Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets 295 100 196 95 22 174 21 36 117 53 121 1 434 331 121 210 255 20 382 98 66 218 123 259 1 745 498 147 352 355 73 352 35 199 118 57 295 1,075 692 243 449 273 50 725 224 198 302 110 615 1 1,388 827 291 536 188 50 797 278 198 321 73 725 1 1,500 967 365 602 103 50 937 407 198 332 74 863 1 1,619 30 179 208 209 17 434 34 367 402 0.5 323 19 745 34 479 513 533 28 1,075 36 656 692 637 59 1,388 36 732 767 673 59 1,500 36 823 859 701 59 1,619 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E FY2013E

August 2, 2011

Sarda Energy | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Cash flow statement (Standalone)


Y/E March (` cr) Profit before tax Depreciation Change in Working Capital Less: Other income Direct taxes paid Cash Flow from Operations (Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (Inc.)/Dec. in loans and adv. Other income Cash Flow from Investing Issue of Equity Inc./(Dec.) in loans Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) Others Cash Flow from Financing Inc./(Dec.) in Cash Opening Cash balances Closing Cash balances FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E FY2013E 139 22 (76) (11) 12 63 (196) 1 (0) (196) 86 114 1 11 187 55 44 98 149 28 (1) 47 22 201 (234) (52) (73) (359) 94 12 (15) 97 (61) 96 35 77 39 33 (7.7) 16 126 (133) 6.2 71.5 (55) (36) 12 13.7 (61) 9 15 25 71 58 (185) 21 (77) 20 20 91.8 177.4 12 257 200 25 224 125 48 (56) 37 80 (50) (50) 36.5 13 24 54 224 278 148 74 (9) 44 169 (55) (55) 27.5 13 15 129 278 407

August 2, 2011

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Sarda Energy | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating RoE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 0.5 1.3 12.1 0.9 2.0 42.5 0.8 5.7 3.0 0.6 3.5 3.9 0.5 2.3 5.5 0.3 1.3 6.2 2.0 142 40 69 60 2.3 59 7 3 47 0.9 150 10 40 80 1.3 163 18 40 74 1.3 150 18 40 90 1.2 150 18 40 86 24.8 28.1 39.8 21.4 23.9 26.9 3.6 3.8 11.7 4.9 5.4 7.9 8.7 10.6 12.0 9.5 12.2 12.8 23.4 87.2 1.2 24.5 4.0 0.5 35.7 20.6 82.6 1.2 19.8 0.9 0.9 36.3 7.3 81.9 0.5 3.1 2.1 0.8 3.8 6.8 70.2 0.8 3.8 1.9 0.6 4.9 12.7 70.2 0.8 7.4 2.5 0.5 10.0 13.9 70.2 0.9 8.6 2.5 0.3 10.6 35.6 35.4 42.1 3.0 118.1 49.4 49.0 57.6 3.0 150.8 5.4 5.4 16.8 3.0 165.8 12.0 12.0 28.1 3.0 193.1 24.5 23.3 37.9 3.0 214.1 29.0 27.7 49.8 3.0 239.6 5.6 4.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 5.3 1.2 4.0 3.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 5.0 1.0 36.4 11.7 1.2 1.5 2.1 14.4 1.1 16.4 7.0 1.0 1.5 1.3 9.6 0.8 8.5 5.2 0.9 1.5 1.1 6.3 0.7 7.1 4.0 0.8 1.5 0.9 4.5 0.6 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E FY2013E

August 2, 2011

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Sarda Energy | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered

Sarda Energy No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to 15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

August 2, 2011

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