Why Kashmir is so quiet - for now Smarter tactics by Indian police and a desire among Kashmiri businesses to make

money are keeping a fragile peace in Kashmir a year after violent police crackdo wns killed more than 100 people. Kashmiri Muslims offers prayer on a street on the first day of the Muslim holy m onth of Ramadan in Srinagar, India, Tuesday, Aug. 2. (Mukhtar Khan/AP) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------By Ben Arnoldy, Staff writer posted August 2, 2011 at 2:05 pm EDT Srinagar, Indian-controlled Kashmir After security forces killed 117 civilians in Kashmir last summer, B.N. Ramesh t ook over as a top police officer here and saw a mess that his MBA degree could h elp him fix. Last summer, young people led street protests against Indias presence here that p rompted deadly police crackdowns, which in turn fueled more protests. This summe r, in contrast, the valley has been mostly calm. Why the calm? Young Kashmiris were not happy with the police. So Mr. Ramesh trie d a new tactic: The Central Reserve Police Force in Kashmir (CRPF) began organiz ing sports teams for young men, hired discontented youth from 70 villages, gave away computers, and set up medical camps to offer free health care. Peoples problems can be put into mathematical equations, says Ramesh, who cites bus iness management gurus like IBMs Louis Gerstner, Jr. and Harvard Universitys Micha el Porter for informing his counterinsurgency theories. The more we manage [peopl es] frustration, the more the war cries for so-called independence will calm down . Related Kashmir 101: Decoding Kashmir s conflict Ramesh embodies a hope held by some Indian officials that Kashmiris can eventual ly be sold on Indian rule. The latest stretch of calm, the return of Indian tour ists, and the wide participation in recent elections have bolstered this hope. But nearly everyone in the Kashmir Valley is warning that underlying desires for separation from India have not changed and that unrest could return in an insta nt. Local business leaders in particular are urging India to take this window of opportunity to negotiate a lasting settlement of the decades-old dispute. This part of Kashmir has been with India for the last 63 years. You can imagine h ow much money they have spent here and still [separatism] has not ended, says Sir aj Ahmed, president of the Kashmir Hotel & Restaurant Association. Ultimately, th ere has to be some sort of structure to address the main issue. Disaster for the business community Mr. Ahmeds group joined forces last year with the local shopkeepers association an d a top businessman Iqbal Trumboo to form the Kashmir Economic Alliance. The gro ups goal is to pressure all sides to talk and hash out a settlement with good rea son. Last summer was a disaster for the business community. Between government curfew s and separatist strikes, businesses lost 135 working days. Each day cost millio ns of dollars to the private sector, according to Shakeel Qalander, president of

the Federation Chamber of Industries Kashmir. After last summer, business leaders went to the separatists to explain their dir e situation. I approached them and requested them not to go for frequent strike c alls because its self-inflicted injuries you are creating, says Mr. Qalander. Senior separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani says the business community is su pportive and we are understanding their difficulties and we are taking that into consideration when deciding strike calls. He warns India, however, not to misread the calm - which he calls the lull before the storm. India and Pakistan India is talking with Pakistan about Kashmir. The two countries resumed a dialog ue this year that was cut after the 2008 terror attacks on Mumbai. Before that attack, the two countries had come close to striking an agreement on Kashmir, a region they both claim but only partially control. The deal reported ly would have granted autonomy to the region and moved toward demilitarizing and softening the de facto border in Kashmir between the two countries. Separatist leaders were reportedly consulted at various points then, but now the y are making it clear that they need to be formally involved in this round of ta lks. For the time being, that looks unlikely. India criticized the new Pakistani fore ign ministers call on Mr. Geelani when she visited India for talks last week. At that meeting, Geelani said areas of Kashmir under Pakistani control should also get self-determination, a departure from his previous advocacy for all of Kashmi r to join Pakistan, according to The Telegraph of Calcutta. New Delhi has dispatched fact finders to Kashmir, but months later they have sti ll not met with the main separatists leaders of the All Parties Hurriyat Confere nce. The government of India has to realize the Hurriyat leaders need to be on board a nd the Pakistanis have to realize that Kashmiris have to be involved, not just t he two of them, says Mr. Trumboo. Business leaders here cannot afford constant unrest, but without unrest New Delh is sense of urgency in reaching out to separatists diminishes. The Kashmir Econom ic Alliance is trying to deploy peaceful pressure for a lasting settlement by mu stering the population behind them. The group claims to represent four million e ntrepreneurs and their dependents. It is high time. We just cannot keep hearing Kashmir resolution and it never comes, says Mr. Trumboo. The pressure will be from the four million people. Kashmir s disgruntled youth The youths who threw stones at police last summer, meanwhile, feel they have alr eady achieved a crucial victory: Indian and world attention on the nearly-forgot ten dispute. Conversations in recent weeks with four stone pelters revealed litt le concern about a loss of momentum this year. Maybe one year is up, one year is down, but it will continue until Kashmir gets f reedom, says Bilal. Indians struggled for their freedom for 200 years and the pace was not continuous. Bilal uses a fake name for his safety. Aside from giving jobs, police have also rounded up thousands of youths and pressured their families before releasing the m.

Another youth says the calm will disappear the moment security forces lose their restraint: If any killings will happen today, things will erupt and it wont stop, he says. Despite his long-term optimism, the CRPF chief Ramesh says he agrees, Twenty year s of poisoning wont go away in a season. He adds, we also know one small mistake on our part will turn the thing tomorrow. It is like running a nuclear power stati on. Related Kashmir 101: Decoding Kashmir s conflict ADGRPID: SERVTYPE: