AGRI

Market

Global Research Limited

Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Spices Continue To Trade Low Due To Selling Pressure

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segment

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Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug 2011

Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug 2011

J E E R A(AUGUST)

G U A R S E E D (AUGUST)

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

JEERA WEAKENS ON ARRIVAL PRESSURE

Expert
Opinion

GUARSEED FALLS ON PROFIT BOOKING

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Jeera prices traded lower on continued profit booking last week. Though arrivals declined to 6000-7000 bags against 9000 bags at Unjha market still traders not came forward for further buying. However, futures witnessed smart recovery during the week but failed to sustain the gains and ended in red. Jeera prices are forecast to continue to trade down on lack of active buying from stockiest during early trade of the next week. However, declining arrivals at spot market of Unjha might support the prices later in the week. According to trader sources, exporters are not going for buying as their earlier material has not been dispatched due to transporters' strike. Overall trend is positive amid good overseas and domestic demand. According to sources, Turkey has left with limited stock as their crop was damaged due to rains in May. According to derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open interest all have shown a negative trend. It is a good indication that price decline is being caused by disgruntled long position holders being forced to liquidate their positions. Technicians view this scenario as a strong position technically because the downtrend will end as all the sellers have sold their positions, creating fresh buying opportunity at lower levels.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Guar seed futures continued to trade bearish on account of profit booking by the market participants and settled 2.15% and 2.43% down respectively on Thursday. Good rains in Guar growing regions of Rajasthan are pressurizing prices. Declining stocks at the NCDEX warehouses for Guar gum indicating lower availability in the domestic market are likely to support prices. Special margin on all running contracts on buy side on Guarseed and Guar gum is applicable from 28th July 2011. Special margin of 10 percent along with 5% cash margin will be applicable on Guar gum while Guar seed special margin on long positions will account to 10 percent. Rajasthan and Haryana together account for 80 per cent of Guar production and 70 per cent of total acreage. According to the Rajasthan Farm department, area covered under Guar till 02nd August 2011 is 17.02 lakh hectares in Rajasthan as compared to 24.79 lakh hectares in the same period last year. Farm officials in Rajasthan are targeting 27 lakh hectares this year under Guar, while in Haryana; the target area is 3 lakh hectares. Guar futures in the short term (1 week) may witness sideways movement. Normal rainfall in the major Guar growing districts of Rajasthan in coming days is expected to cap upside while lower stocks of Guar gum might support prices. However, low stocks of Guar gum may restrict prices from falling sharply. Overall price trend till October may remain bullish on lower stocks amidst higher export demand.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Profit booking Arrival pressure

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week initially Jeera was in consolidation and we saw a slight short covering but in the later part of the week we saw good selling coming at higher levels and price closed near to its weekly low. For the next week Jeera has resistance at 15820 and support at 15100.

STRATEGY
Jeera is in a consolidated phase and one should use the strategy of buy on lower levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains above the level of 15820 then we can expect the level of 16200, and if it sustains below 15100 then we can see the level of 14750.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Profit booking Good rainfall

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Guarseed did our target of 4190 below the level of 4240 but price did not sustained below the important level of 4240. Last week Guarseed remained bearish for the entire week but we saw a slight short covering on the last day of the week. For the next week Guarseed has resistance at 4420 and support at 4160.

STRATEGY
For next week in Guar seed traders should go for buying at lower levels strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the level of 4420 we can see the level of 4495, and below 4160 it can touch the level of 4110.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 17411 16486 15903 15561 14978 14636 13711

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 5007 4668 4476 4329 4137 3990 3651

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Weekly Chart

Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug 2011

Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug 2011

SOYABEAN ( S E P T E M B E R )

C H A N A (SEPTEMBER)

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

SOYBEAN ENDS HIGHER ON FESTIVE DEMAND

Expert
Opinion

CHANA TUMBLES ON SUBDUED DEMAND

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Soy bean prices did not fall much as anticipated on Thursday owing to the slight surge in the spot prices. Spot prices marginally gained by `12/quintal while arrivals remained stable. Nominal demand for bean as pulse for the festive season ahead supported the positive closing. CBOT prices tumbled steeply on Wednesday mainly driven by concerns of slowdown in global economies. Traders largely liquidated long positions to mitigate the risk in future. Crop prospects are better in both in India and U.S which is strengthening the hopes of the bumper crop. In next world agriculture supply demand report Soybean production might be much higher as the crop damage in Soybean is much lower than Corn. Higher production expectations of the Palm oil are also weighing on market sentiments. At the domestic front the acreage has increase by 12.08 lakh hectares compared to last year as on 29/07/2011. As per state agriculture department of Maharashtra Soybean sowing has completed in 26,374 hectares compared to target of 25,300 hectares. Same is the scenario in crop sowing status in Madhya Pradesh adding to bearish sentiment. Currently e- CBOT and Malaysian Palm oil prices are trading lower which the Indian Soy bean futures price might follow.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Chana futures traded bearish and settled lower by 0.61% on Thursday lacklustre trades at the domestic market. Lower stocks of Chana with stockists at M.P. are likely to support prices in the coming days. Reports of decline in the area sown under pulses till 29th July 2011 are likely to support prices. There are reports that inadequate rainfall in Karnataka has caused the area under Tur, Urad and Moong to be lower. This is likely to strengthen Tur, Urad and Moong prices. This might support Chana prices as firmness in other pulses will drive demand for Chana. Area under Chickpeas in Australia during 2011-12 is forecasted to be lower by 44.50% to 3.03 lakh hectares but adequate rainfall in the month of May has raised hopes of better yield. IMD has predicted monsoon to be below normal in the peak growing period, of July and August. Cumulative rainfall till 13th July being pushed below Long Period Average. In Central India and South Peninsula (Kharif Pulses producing regions) monsoon are expected to be 95% of the LPA. Chana futures are likely to trade sideways due to weak domestic demand. However, lower stocks of Chana in M.P. are likely to control prices from falling sharply. In the short to medium term, prices will also takes cues from the sowing progress of Kharif Pulses mainly Tur and Urad, which is so far estimated lower and monsoon progress over the major Pulses growing areas. The current predictions with respect to monsoon and sowing acreage point towards downward projections of Kharif output which may provide support to the prices. Chana Prices may gain by Rs. 100-150 from the current levels.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Festive demand Favorable weather conditions

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Soybean continued it bullish trend initially and price was not sustaining at lower levels, but we saw a slight profit booking in the last two days of the week and price took resistance of the important level of 2535. For the next week Soybean has resistance at 2535 and support at 2455.

STRATEGY
For next week in Soybean one should go for buy on lower level strategy. If it sustains above 2535 we can see the level of 2570 and on the downside if it sustains below 2455 level we can see Soybean at 2420 level.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Subdued demand Profit booking

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week in Chana we saw good profit booking coming at higher levels and price remained bearish throughout the week, though we saw slight profit booking on the last day of the week. For the next week Chana has resistance at 3260 and support at 3035.

STRATEGY
For next week in Chana one should go for buy on lower levels strategy. If it sustains above 3260 we can see the level of 3310 and on the downside if it sustains below the level of 3120 we can see Chana at 3050 level.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 2632 2560 2516 2488 2444 2416 2344

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 3438 3315 3250 3192 3127 3069 2946

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Weekly Chart

Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug 2011

Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA PPRMLGKOC TMCFGRNZM GARSEDJDR GARGUMJDR CHARJDDEL SYBEANIDR SYOREFIDR RMSEEDJPR COCUDAKL GURCHMUZR POTATO KAPASSRNR WHTSMQDELI MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX MCX MCX

19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT- 11 20SEPT- 11 30-APR-12 19-AUG -11 30-AUG-11 13-AUG-11

Jeera Pepper Turmeric Guarseed Guargum Chana Soybean Soy Oil Refined Rape Mustard Seed Cotton Seed Oil Cake Gur Potato Kapas Wheat Mentha oil Cardamom

RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/10KGS RS/20KGS RS/QUINTAL RS/40KGS RS/QUINTAL RS./20KG RS/QUINTAL RS/KG RS/KG

16000 29329 7276 4547 14814 3244 2475.5 658.45 3017 1344 1044 348.7 715 1178.8 1066.9 845.4

15930 29301 7226 4555 14900 3250 2481 660.7 3025 1346 1043 347.1 719 1176.4 1068 842

16145 29690 7250 4584 15020 3258 2532.5 665 3041 1346 1045 358 750 1180 1174.5 847.5

15220 28162 6632 4185 13524 3135 2460.5 644.1 2940 1255 1020.5 342.8 693 1128.4 1056.7 757.5

15320 28755 6652 4185 13524 3185 2472 645.05 2953 1259 1025.5 351 693 1139.8 1143.4 762.9

52743 39091 26360 708280 96210 1032580

-680 -574 -624 -362 -1290 -59 -3.5 -13.4 -64 -85 -18.5 2.3 -22 -39 76.5 -82.5

12612 5795 7255 71640 40615 270350 147560 125610 95950 25380 8410 132285 5002 27690 3787 1589

72,523.56 88,279.15 16,975.07 250,669.16 117,428.61 284,466.22 88,890.38 220,977.18 73,027.65 18,002.61 5,174.99 3,808.48 24,828.93 2,698.09 107855.74 6296.33
* Turnover Till Friday

443040
410470 276240 153430 22070 119205 19750 25300 31184 8967

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Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug 2011

Week : Aug 08th to 13th Aug 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Weekly Pivots

Exchange
NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX

Commodity
JEERA PEPPER TURMERIC GUARSEED GUARGUM CHANA SOYBEAN SOY OIL REFINED RAPE MUSTARD SEED COTTONSEED OIL CAKE GUR POTATO KAPAS WHEAT MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

Closing Price
15320 28755 6652 4185 13524 3185 2472 645.05 2953 1259 1025.5 351 693 1139.8 1143.4 762.9

% Change
-4.25 -1.96 -8.58 -7.96 -8.71 -1.82 -0.14 -2.04 -2.12 -6.32 -1.77 0.66 -3.08 -3.31 7.17 -9.76

Scripts
JEERA (AUG) PEPPER (AUG) TURMERIC (AUG) GUARSEED (SEPT) GUARSGUM (SEPT) CHANA (SEPT) SOYBEAN (SEPT) REFINED SOYA OIL (SEPT) MUSTARD (SEPT)

R3
17411.67 31925.00 8080.67 5116.00 17014.67 3438.67 2632.33 693.18 3180.00

R2
16486.67 30397.00 7462.67 4717.00 15518.67 3315.67 2560.33 672.28 3079.00 1377.67 1054.83 365.80 769.00 1242.67 879.30

R1
15903.33 29576.00 7057.33 4451.00 14521.33 3250.33 2516.17 658.67 3016.00 1318.33 1040.17 358.40 731.00 1193.03 821.10

PP
15561.67 28869.00 6844.67 4318.00 14022.67 3192.67 2488.33 651.38 2978.00 1286.67 1030.33 350.60 712.00 1124.87 789.30

S1
14978.33 28048.00 6439.33 4052.00 13025.33 3127.33 2444.17 637.77 2915.00 1227.33 1015.67 343.20 674.00 1075.23 731.10

S2
14636.67 27341.00 6226.67 3919.00 12526.67 3069.67 2416.33 630.48 2877.00 1195.67 1005.83 335.40 655.00 1007.07 699.30

S3
13711.67 25813.00 5608.67 3520.00 11030.67 2946.67 2344.33 609.58 2776.00 1104.67 981.33 320.20 598.00 889.27 609.30

COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (SEPT) 1468.67 GUR (SEPT) POTATO (SEPT) KAPAS (APR 2012) MENTHA OIL (AUG) CARDAMOM (AUG) 1079.33 381.00 826.00 1360.47 969.30

Disclaimer

Weekly Gainers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change 7.17 0.66

Weekly Losers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price 762.9 13524 6652 % Change -9.76 -8.71 -8.58

The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Investment in Commodity has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above. The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. CapitalVia does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.

MENTHA OIL 30-AUG-11 1143.4 POTATO 20-SEPT- 11 351

CARDAMOM 13-AUG-11 GUARGUM TURMERIC 20-SEPT -11 19-AUG-11

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